Supporting pregnant women not ready to quit smoking: an economic evaluation.

OBJECTIVES: Some pregnant women are not ready or do not want to quit smoking completely, and currently there is no support provided for these women in the UK. Offering help to reduce smoking could reduce the health risks associated with smoking and increase the limited reach of the NHS Stop Smoking Services (SSS) for pregnant women. This study aimed to design and evaluate a hypothetical intervention aimed at pregnant women who are not yet ready or do not want to quit smoking entirely. METHODS: A hypothetical intervention, the Reduced Smoking During Pregnancy (RSDP) intervention, was conceptualised based on the best available evidence. The intervention was evaluated, using a decision-analytic model developed for SDP interventions. Two different scenarios, a base-case and a cautious-case were developed, and a cost-utility analysis and return on investment analysis were conducted. The uncertainty around the estimates was assessed, using deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: The RSDP intervention could prevent the loss of 13 foetuses and generate 43 quitters 1 year after delivery per 1000 women. In the lifetime analysis, the intervention was cost-effective in both scenarios, with an incremental cost of £363 (95% CI £29 to £672) and 0.44 (95% CI 0.32 to 0.53) QALYs gained in the base-case. CONCLUSIONS: The study found that the hypothetical reduction intervention would produce significant health benefits, reduce smoking and be cost-effective. Offering pregnant smokers help to reduce smoking could reduce health inequalities, widen the reach of SSS and improve health. This economic evaluation of a novel, intensive intervention could inform the piloting of such interventions.

Exome Sequencing for Prenatal Detection of Genetic Abnormalities in Fetal Ultrasound Anomalies: An Economic Evaluation.

INTRODUCTION: In light of the prospective Prenatal Assessment of Genomes and Exomes (PAGE) study, this paper aimed to determine the additional costs of using exome sequencing (ES) alongside or in place of chromosomal microarray (CMA) in a fetus with an identified congenital anomaly. METHODS: A decision tree was populated using data from a prospective cohort of women undergoing invasive diagnostic testing. Four testing strategies were evaluated: CMA, ES, CMA followed by ES ("stepwise"); CMA and ES combined. RESULTS: When ES is priced at GBP 2,100 (EUR 2,407/USD 2,694), performing ES alone prenatally would cost a further GBP 31,410 (EUR 36,001/USD 40,289) per additional genetic diagnosis, whereas the stepwise would cost a further GBP 24,657 (EUR 28,261/USD 31,627) per additional genetic diagnosis. When ES is priced at GBP 966 (EUR 1,107/USD 1,239), performing ES alone prenatally would cost a further GBP 11,532 (EUR 13,217/USD 14,792) per additional genetic diagnosis, whereas the stepwise would cost a further additional GBP 11,639 (EUR 13,340/USD 14,929) per additional genetic diagnosis. The sub-group analysis suggests that performing stepwise on cases indicative of multiple anomalies at ultrasound scan (USS) compared to cases indicative of a single anomaly, is more cost-effective compared to using ES alone. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION: Performing ES alongside CMA is more cost-effective than ES alone, which can potentially lead to improvements in pregnancy management. The direct effects of test results on pregnancy outcomes were not examined; therefore, further research is recommended to examine changes on the projected incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

The Importance of Model Structure in the Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Primary Care Interventions for the Management of Hypertension.

BACKGROUND: Management of hypertension can lead to significant reductions in blood pressure, thereby reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease. Modeling the course of cardiovascular disease is not without complications, and uncertainty surrounding the structure of a model will almost always arise once a choice of a model structure is defined. OBJECTIVES: To provide a practical illustration of the impact on the results of cost-effectiveness of changing or adapting model structures in a previously published cost-utility analysis of a primary care intervention for the management of hypertension Targets and Self-Management for the Control of Blood Pressure in Stroke and at Risk Groups (TASMIN-SR). METHODS: The case study assessed the structural uncertainty arising from model structure and from the exclusion of secondary events. Four alternative model structures were implemented. Long-term cost-effectiveness was estimated and the results compared with those from the TASMIN-SR model. RESULTS: The main cost-effectiveness results obtained in the TASMIN-SR study did not change with the implementation of alternative model structures. Choice of model type was limited to a cohort Markov model, and because of the lack of epidemiological data, only model 4 captured structural uncertainty arising from the exclusion of secondary events in the case study model. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study indicate that the main conclusions drawn from the TASMIN-SR model of cost-effectiveness were robust to changes in model structure and the inclusion of secondary events. Even though one of the models produced results that were different to those of TASMIN-SR, the fact that the main conclusions were identical suggests that a more parsimonious model may have sufficed.

The Estimation and Inclusion of Presenteeism Costs in Applied Economic Evaluation: A Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVE: Given the significant costs of reduced productivity (presenteeism) in comparison to absenteeism, and overall societal costs, presenteeism has a potentially important role to play in economic evaluations. However, these costs are often excluded. The objective of this study is to review applied cost of illness studies and economic evaluations to identify valuation methods used for, and impact of including presenteeism costs in practice. METHODS: A structured systematic review was carried out to explore (i) the extent to which presenteeism has been applied in cost of illness studies and economic evaluations and (ii) the overall impact of including presenteeism on overall costs and outcomes. Potential articles were identified by searching Medline, PsycINFO and NHS EED databases. A standard template was developed and used to extract information from economic evaluations and cost of illness studies incorporating presenteeism costs. RESULTS: A total of 28 studies were included in the systematic review which also demonstrated that presenteeism costs are rarely included in full economic evaluations. Estimation and monetisation methods differed between the instruments. The impact of disease on presenteeism whilst in paid work is high. CONCLUSIONS: The potential impact of presenteeism costs needs to be highlighted and greater consideration should be given to including these in economic evaluations and cost of illness studies. The importance of including presenteeism costs when conducting economic evaluation from a societal perspective should be emphasised in national economic guidelines and more methodological work is required to improve the practical application of presenteeism instruments to generate productivity cost estimates.

Valuing productivity costs using the friction-cost approach: Estimating friction-period estimates by occupational classifications for the UK.

The friction cost approach has been proposed as an alternative to the human capital approach in estimating productivity costs. However, it is difficult, in practice, to apply this approach due to limited availability of context-specific data. Using national and firm-level data on vacancy durations sourced from 4 organisations, we estimated vacancy durations, and consequently, length of friction period for the United Kingdom disaggregated by occupational classification. We found comparable estimates to previously reported friction periods elsewhere. The disaggregated friction period analysis confirmed occupational class has an effect on the estimated length of the friction period. The research presents estimates on vacancy durations and friction periods necessary to use the friction cost approach in a practical way in economic evaluations.

A Systematic Review of Research Guidelines in Decision-Analytic Modeling.

BACKGROUND: Decision-analytic modeling (DAM) has been increasingly used to aid decision making in health care. The growing use of modeling in economic evaluations has led to increased scrutiny of the methods used. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to perform a systematic review to identify and critically assess good practice guidelines, with particular emphasis on contemporary developments. METHODS: A systematic review of English language articles was undertaken to identify articles presenting guidance for good practice in DAM in the evaluation of health care. The inclusion criteria were articles providing guidance or criteria against which to assess good practice in DAM and studies providing criteria or elements for good practice in some areas of DAM. The review covered the period January 1990 to March 2014 and included the following electronic bibliographic databases: Cochrane Library, Cochrane Methodology Register and Health Technology Assessment, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, MEDLINE, and PubMed (Embase). Additional studies were identified by searching references. RESULTS: Thirty-three articles were included in this review. A practical five-dimension framework was developed that describe the key elements of good research practice that should be considered and reported to increase the credibility of results obtained from DAM in the evaluation of health care. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first to critically review all available guidelines and statements of good practice in DAM since 2006. The development of good practice guidelines is an ongoing process, and important efforts have been made to identify what is good practice and to keep these guidelines up to date.

Cost-effectiveness of optimizing acute stroke care services for thrombolysis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Thrombolysis in acute stroke is effective up to 4.5 hours after symptom onset but relies on early recognition, prompt arrival in hospital, and timely brain scanning. This study aimed to establish the cost-effectiveness of increasing thrombolysis rates through a series of hypothetical change strategies designed to optimize the acute care pathway for stroke. METHODS: A decision-tree model was constructed, which relates the acute management of patients with suspected stroke from symptom onset to outcome. Current practice was modeled and compared with 7 change strategies designed to facilitate wider eligibility for thrombolysis. The model basecase consisted of data from consenting patients following the acute stroke pathway recruited in participating hospitals with data on effectiveness of treatment and costs from published sources. RESULTS: All change strategies were cost saving while increasing quality-adjusted life years gained. Using realistic estimates of effectiveness, the change strategy with the largest potential benefit was that of better recording of onset time, which resulted in 3.3 additional quality-adjusted life years and a cost saving of US $46,000 per 100,000 population. All strategies increased the number of thrombolysed patients and the number requiring urgent brain imaging (by 9% to 21% dependent on the scenario). Assuming a willingness-to-pay of US $30,000 per quality-adjusted life year gained, the potential budget available to deliver the interventions in each strategy ranged from US $50,000 to US $144,000. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that any strategy that increases thrombolysis rates will result in cost savings and improved patient quality of life. Healthcare commissioners could consider this model when planning improvements in stroke care.

BAC chromosomal microarray for prenatal detection of chromosome anomalies in fetal ultrasound anomalies: an economic evaluation.

INTRODUCTION: To determine the cost-effectiveness of prenatal chromosomal microarray (CMA) when performed for structural anomalies on fetal ultrasound scan over conventional techniques. METHOD: A decision tree was populated using data from a prospective cohort of women undergoing testing when a fetal ultrasound scan showed a structural abnormality. Nine strategies of testing were modeled including combinations of the tests: QFPCR, G-band karyotyping, CMA and FISH for DiGeorge (22q) microdeletion. RESULTS: When CMA costs GBP 405 and using a 1-Mb BAC array it would cost GBP 24,600 for every additional case detected by CMA over a combination of QFPCR, followed by G-band karyotype, followed lastly by FISH (for DiGeorge syndrome). If CMA is performed instead of conventional karyotyping alone it costs GBP 33,000 for every additional case detected. However, if the cost of CMA is reduced to GBP 360 than when CMA is performed instead of conventional karyotyping alone it would cost GBP 9,768 for every additional case detected. DISCUSSION: The use of a prenatal BAC CMA is not currently cost-effective when compared to other testing strategies. However, as CMA costs decrease and resolution (and detection rates) increase it is likely to become the cost-effective option of the future.

Clinical and cost-effectiveness of left ventricular assist devices as destination therapy for advanced heart failure: systematic review and economic evaluation.

Background: Selected patients with advanced heart failure ineligible for heart transplantation could benefit from left ventricular assist device therapy as 'destination therapy'. There is evidence of the efficacy of destination therapy; however, it is not currently commissioned within the United Kingdom National Health Service due to the lack of economic evidence. Objective: What is the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a left ventricular assist device compared to medical management for patients with advanced heart failure ineligible for heart transplantation (destination therapy)? Methods: A systematic review of evidence on the clinical and cost-effectiveness of left ventricular assist devices as destination therapy was undertaken including, where feasible, a network meta-analysis to provide an indirect estimate of the relative effectiveness of currently available left ventricular assist devices compared to medical management. For the systematic reviews, data sources searched (up to 11 January 2022) were Cochrane CENTRAL, MEDLINE and EMBASE via Ovid for primary studies, and Epistemonikos and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for relevant systematic reviews. Trial registers were also searched, along with data and reports from intervention-specific registries. Economic studies were identified in EconLit, CEA registry and the NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED). The searches were supplemented by checking reference lists of included studies. An economic model (Markov) was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of left ventricular assist devices compared to medical management from the United Kingdom National Health Service/personal social service perspective. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore uncertainties. Where possible, all analyses focused on the only currently available left ventricular assist device (HeartMate 3TM, Abbott, Chicago, IL, USA) in the United Kingdom. Results: The clinical effectiveness review included 134 studies (240 articles). There were no studies directly comparing HeartMate 3 and medical management (a randomised trial is ongoing). The currently available left ventricular assist device improves patient survival and reduces stroke rates and complications compared to earlier devices and relative to medical management. For example, survival at 24 months is 77% with the HeartMate 3 device compared to 59% with the HeartMate II (MOMENTUM 3 trial). An indirect comparison demonstrated a reduction in mortality compared to medical management [relative risk of death 0.25 (95% confidence interval 0.13 to 0.47); 24 months; this study]. The cost-effectiveness review included 5 cost analyses and 14 economic evaluations covering different generations of devices and with different perspectives. The reported incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained compared to medical management were lower for later generations of devices [as low as £46,207 (2019 prices; United Kingdom perspective; time horizon at least 5 years)]. The economic evaluation used different approaches to obtain the relative effects of current left ventricular assist devices compared to medical management from the United Kingdom National Health Service/personal social service perspective. All gave similar incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £53,496-58,244 per quality-adjusted life-year gained - lifetime horizon. Model outputs were sensitive to parameter estimates relating to medical management. The findings did not materially differ on exploratory subgroup analyses based on the severity of heart failure. Limitations: There was no direct evidence comparing the clinical effectiveness of HeartMate 3 to medical management. Indirect comparisons made were based on limited data from heterogeneous studies regarding the severity of heart failure (Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support score distribution) and possible for survival only. Furthermore, the cost of medical management of advanced heart failure in the United Kingdom is not clear. Conclusions: Using cost-effectiveness criteria applied in the United Kingdom, left ventricular assist devices compared to medical management for patients with advanced heart failure ineligible for heart transplant may not be cost-effective. When available, data from the ongoing evaluation of HeartMate 3 compared to medical management can be used to update cost-effectiveness estimates. An audit of the costs of medical management in the United Kingdom is required to further decrease uncertainty in the economic evaluation. Study registration: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42020158987. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR128996) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 38. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

The majority of patients with advanced heart failure would be unsuitable for heart transplantation due to their age and comorbidities but selected patients could benefit from a left ventricular assist device. Left ventricular assist device therapy for such patients is known as 'destination therapy'. This is a long-term therapy that involves implanting a battery-powered pump to support the patient's heart. The purpose of this project was to collect and assess the research evidence on the effectiveness of left ventricular assist devices when used for destination therapy, and to estimate value for money compared to medical management from the United Kingdom National Health Service/personal social service perspective. This research identified that the currently available left ventricular assist device improves patient survival as well as reducing stroke rates and complications compared to earlier devices and relative to medical management. However, there is uncertainty in the evidence due to the absence of studies directly comparing the current device to medical therapy alone. An ongoing clinical trial is currently assessing this. It also means there is uncertainty about whether left ventricular assist devices could provide value for money as determined currently for the United Kingdom National Health Service.

Cost-effectiveness of options for the diagnosis of high blood pressure in primary care: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The diagnosis of hypertension has traditionally been based on blood-pressure measurements in the clinic, but home and ambulatory measurements better correlate with cardiovascular outcome, and ambulatory monitoring is more accurate than both clinic and home monitoring in diagnosing hypertension. We aimed to compare the cost-effectiveness of different diagnostic strategies for hypertension. METHODS: We did a Markov model-based probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis. We used a hypothetical primary-care population aged 40 years or older with a screening blood-pressure measurement greater than 140/90 mm Hg and risk-factor prevalence equivalent to the general population. We compared three diagnostic strategies-further blood pressure measurement in the clinic, at home, and with an ambulatory monitor-in terms of lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life years, and cost-effectiveness. FINDINGS: Ambulatory monitoring was the most cost-effective strategy for the diagnosis of hypertension for men and women of all ages. It was cost-saving for all groups (from -£56 [95% CI -105 to -10] in men aged 75 years to -£323 [-389 to -222] in women aged 40 years) and resulted in more quality-adjusted life years for men and women older than 50 years (from 0·006 [0·000 to 0·015] for women aged 60 years to 0·022 [0·012 to 0·035] for men aged 70 years). This finding was robust when assessed with a wide range of deterministic sensitivity analyses around the base case, but was sensitive if home monitoring was judged to have equal test performance to ambulatory monitoring or if treatment was judged effective irrespective of whether an individual was hypertensive. INTERPRETATION: Ambulatory monitoring as a diagnostic strategy for hypertension after an initial raised reading in the clinic would reduce misdiagnosis and save costs. Additional costs from ambulatory monitoring are counterbalanced by cost savings from better targeted treatment. Ambulatory monitoring is recommended for most patients before the start of antihypertensive drugs. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research and the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence.

The REFER (REFer for EchocaRdiogram) protocol: a prospective validation of a clinical decision rule, NT-proBNP, or their combination, in the diagnosis of heart failure in primary care. Rationale and design.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure is a major cause of mortality and morbidity. As mortality rates are high, it is important that patients seen by general practitioners with symptoms suggestive of heart failure are identified quickly and treated appropriately. Identifying patients with heart failure or deciding which patients need further tests is a challenge. All patients with suspected heart failure should be diagnosed using objective tests such as echocardiography, but it is expensive, often delayed, and limited by the significant skill shortage of trained echocardiographers. Alternative approaches for diagnosing heart failure are currently limited. Clinical decision tools that combine clinical signs, symptoms or patient characteristics are designed to be used to support clinical decision-making and validated according to strict methodological procedures. The REFER Study aims to determine the accuracy and cost-effectiveness of our previously derived novel, simple clinical decision rule, a natriuretic peptide assay, or their combination, in the triage for referral for echocardiography of symptomatic adult patients who present in general practice with symptoms suggestive of heart failure. METHODS/DESIGN: This is a prospective, Phase II observational, diagnostic validation study of a clinical decision rule, natriuretic peptides or their combination, for diagnosing heart failure in primary care. Consecutive adult primary care patients 55 years of age or over presenting to their general practitioner with a chief complaint of recent new onset shortness of breath, lethargy or peripheral ankle oedema of over 48 hours duration, with no obvious recurrent, acute or self-limiting cause will be enrolled. Our reference standard is based upon a three step expert specialist consensus using echocardiography and clinical variables and tests. DISCUSSION: Our clinical decision rule offers a potential solution to the diagnostic challenge of providing a timely and accurate diagnosis of heart failure in primary care. Study results will provide an evidence-base from which to develop heart failure care pathway recommendations and may be useful in standardising care. If demonstrated to be effective, the clinical decision rule will be of interest to researchers, policy makers and general practitioners worldwide. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN17635379.

Towards optimum smoking cessation interventions during pregnancy: a household model to explore cost-effectiveness.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Previous economic evaluations of smoking cessation interventions for pregnant women are limited to single components, which do not in isolation offer sufficient potential impact to address smoking cessation targets. To inform the development of more appropriate complex interventions, we (1) describe the development of the Economics of Smoking in Pregnancy: Household (ESIP.H) model for estimating the life-time cost-effectiveness of smoking cessation interventions aimed at pregnant women and (2) use a hypothetical case study to demonstrate how ESIP.H can be used to identify the characteristics of optimum smoking cessation interventions. METHODS: The hypothetical intervention was based on current evidence relating to component elements, including financial incentives, partner smoking, intensive behaviour change support, cigarettes consumption and duration of support to 12 months post-partum. ESIP.H was developed to assess the life-time health and cost impacts of multi-component interventions compared with standard National Health Service (NHS) care in England. ESIP.H considers cigarette consumption, partner smoking and some health conditions (e.g. obesity) that were not included in previous models. The Markov model's parameters were estimated based on published literature, expert judgement and evidence-based assumptions. The hypothetical intervention was evaluated from an NHS perspective. RESULTS: The hypothetical intervention was associated with an incremental gain in quitters (mother and partner) at 12 months postpartum of 249 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 195-304] per 1000 pregnant smokers. Over the long-term, it had an incremental negative cost of £193 (CI = -£779 to 344) and it improved health, with a 0.50 (CI = 0.36-0.69) increase in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for mothers, partners and offspring, with a 100% probability of being cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: The Economics of Smoking in Pregnancy: Household model for estimating cost-effectiveness of smoking cessation interventions aimed at pregnant women found that a hypothetical smoking cessation intervention would greatly extend reach, reduce smoking and be cost-effective.

Development of the Birmingham Rheumatoid Arthritis Model: past, present and future plans.

The Birmingham Rheumatoid Arthritis Model (BRAM) has been developed over a number of years to inform several appraisals of biologic drugs by the Technology Appraisals Committee of the UK National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence. This article describes the processes used in the construction of the different versions of the BRAM.

What happens to value of information measures as the number of decision options increases?

AIM: To explore what happens to the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) as an increasingly large number of decision options is considered. METHODS: A stylised model of screening for a hypothetical cancer. The model was used to test different possible ages for 'once in a lifetime' screening under a variety of assumptions about model parameter uncertainty. Initial model runs only considered screening at ages which are multiples of 16 years, then multiples of 8 years were allowed, then 4 years, etc. RESULTS: Effects of more refined choice sets on the cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier (CEAF) and EVPI are shown. The CEAF collapses to zero for threshold incremental cost-effectiveness ratios at which screening at some age is preferred to no screening, while the EVPI stabilises at a non-zero figure. CONCLUSIONS: The CEAF is likely to be highly dependent on the choice of options when these are a selection from a very large set of possible options. In contrast, the EVPI can be reasonably approximated by a model with a slightly limited choice set.

Experiences of outreach workers in promoting smoking cessation to Bangladeshi and Pakistani men: longitudinal qualitative evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Despite having high smoking rates, there have been few tailored cessation programmes for male Bangladeshi and Pakistani smokers in the UK. We report on a qualitative evaluation of a community-based, outreach worker delivered, intervention that aimed to increase uptake of NHS smoking cessation services and tailor services to meet the needs of Bangladeshi and Pakistani men. METHODS: This was a longitudinal, qualitative study, nested within a phase II cluster randomised controlled trial of a complex intervention. We explored the perspectives and experiences of five outreach workers, two stop smoking service managers and a specialist stop smoking advisor. Data were collected through focus group discussions, weekly diaries, observations of management meetings, shadowing of outreach workers, and one-to-one interviews with outreach workers and their managers. Analysis was undertaken using a modified Framework approach. RESULTS: Outreach workers promoted cessation services by word of mouth on the streets, in health service premises, in local businesses and at a wide range of community events. They emphasised the reasons for cessation, especially health effects, financial implications, and the impact of smoking on the family. Many smokers agreed to be referred to cessation services, but few attended, this in part being explained by concerns about the relative inflexibility of existing service provision. Although outreach workers successfully expanded service reach, they faced the challenges of perceived lack of awareness of the health risks associated with smoking in older smokers and apathy in younger smokers. These were compounded by perceptions of "lip service" being given to their role by community organisations and tensions both amongst the outreach workers and with the wider management team. CONCLUSIONS: Outreach workers expanded reach of the service through taking it to diverse locations of relevance to Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities. The optimum method of outreach to retain and treat Bangladeshi and Pakistani smokers effectively in cessation programmes needs further development.

Economic Burden of Road Traffic Injuries in Nepal.

The evidence of the economic burden of road traffic injuries (RTIs) in Nepal is limited. The most recent study, conducted in 2008, is now considered outdated because there has been a rapid increase in vehicle numbers and extensive road building over the last decade. This study estimated the current economic costs of RTIs in Nepal, including the direct costs, productivity costs, and valuation of pain, grief, and suffering. An incidence-based cost-of-illness analysis was conducted from a societal perspective, employing a bottom-up approach using secondary data. All costs incurred by the patients, their family members, and costs to society were estimated, with sensitivity analyses to consider uncertainty around the data estimates available. Productivity loss was valued using the human capital approach. The total costs of RTIs in 2017 were estimated at USD 122.88 million. Of these, the costs of productivity loss were USD 91.57 million (74.52%) and the pain, grief, and suffering costs were USD 18.31 million (14.90%). The direct non-medical costs were USD 11.50 million (9.36%) whereas the direct medical costs were USD 1.50 million (1.22%). The economic costs of RTIs increased by threefold since 2007 and are equivalent to 1.52% of the gross national product, indicating the growing national financial burden associated with preventable RTIs.

Early Economic Evaluation to Identify the Necessary Test Characteristics of a New Typhoid Test to be Cost Effective in Ghana.

BACKGROUND: In Ghana, there are issues with the diagnosis of typhoid fever; these include delays in diagnosis, concerns about the accuracy of current tests, and lack of availability. These issues highlight the need for the development of a rapid, accurate, and easily accessible diagnostic test. The aim of this study was to conduct an early economic analysis of a hypothetical rapid test for typhoid fever diagnosis in Ghana and identify the necessary characteristics of the test for it to be cost effective in Ghana. METHODS: An early cost-utility analysis was conducted using a decision tree parameterized with secondary data sources, with reasonable assumptions made for unknown parameters. The patient population considered is individuals presenting with symptoms suggestive of typhoid fever at a healthcare facility in Ghana; a time horizon of 180 days and the Ghanaian national health service perspective were adopted for the analysis. Extensive sensitivity analysis was undertaken, including headroom analysis. RESULTS: The results here show that for a hypothetical test to perform better than the existing test (Widal) in terms of QALYs gained and cost effectiveness, it is necessary for it to have a high specificity (at least 70%) and should not be priced more than US$4. The overall value of conducting research to reduce uncertainty (over 5 years) is US$3287. CONCLUSION: The analysis shows the potential for the hypothetical test to replace the Widal test and the market potential of developing a new test in the Ghanaian setting.

Economic evaluation of Faecal microbiota transplantation compared to antibiotics for the treatment of recurrent Clostridioides difficile infection.

BACKGROUND: Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) is a hospital acquired disease associated with significant morbidity, hospitalisation and mortality. Almost 30% of treated patients experience at least one recurrence after treatment of their first episode. Treatment of recurrent CDI (rCDI) utilises vancomycin or fidaxomicin, however, a newer treatment option is faecal microbial transplantation (FMT) administered by nasogastric tube (NGT) or colonoscopy. It is associated with higher cure and lower recurrence rates than fidaxomicin or vancomycin. The aim of this analysis is to evaluate the cost effectiveness of FMT for rCDI using the latest and best evidence. METHOD: A cost utility analysis was conducted using a decision model representing the cost per additional Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) from a National Health Service (NHS) perspective. A Markov model was constructed to compare FMT NGT and colonoscopy to antibiotic treatment (fidaxomicin or vancomycin). The model was informed by a literature review of clinical evidence, specifically focussing on hospitalised patients with rCDI over 65 years. Both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess uncertainties around the model inputs and assumptions. FINDINGS: The base case analysis showed that FMT is a less costly and more effective treatment than either fidaxomicin or vancomycin. FMT colonoscopy was slightly more effective than FMT NGT leading to an additional 0.012 QALYs but more expensive and the incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £242,514/QALY. The Probabilistic sensitivity analysis based on 10,000 simulations suggested the probability of FMT NGT being cost effective was almost 78% at £20,000/QALY Willingness-To-Pay (WTP) threshold. INTERPRETATION: FMT is both more effective and less costly option than antimicrobial therapy. FMT NGT was the preferred route of administration and is likely to be considered the most cost-effective strategy by decision makers given current acceptable thresholds.

Assessing the outcomes of prolonged cessation-induction and aid-to-cessation trials: floating prolonged abstinence.

INTRODUCTION: A Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco working group recommended outcome measures for cessation-induction trials and aid-to-cessation trials. Cessation-induction trials aim to motivate unwilling quitters to make a quit attempt. Aid-to-cessation trials give either medication or behavioral interventions to increase the rate at which willing quitters succeed in their attempts. Nicotine-assisted reduction programs combine features of both types of interventions by giving nicotine replacement to unwilling quitters. Treatment can be prolonged more than a year, quit attempts can occur and succeed early or late in the program, and renewed quit attempts are an inherent part of the program. Conventional outcome measures are tied to a fixed but arbitrary point in follow-up and cannot capture the true outcome: Prolonged cessation anchored to the point at which a person makes a successful quit attempt. DISCUSSION: We propose that the outcome should be counted from the successful quit attempt that began during the treatment period and continues for a defined period, ideally 6 months. In particular, if a trial compared a short reduction program with a long reduction program, it would not be possible to obtain an unbiased assessment of the outcome of such a trial using a measure tied to a fixed point in follow-up. Floating prolonged abstinence could provide such an assessment and is suitable for either prolonged cessation-induction trial or combined cessation-induction and aid-to-cessation trials.

An economic evaluation of alternative test-intervention strategies to prevent spontaneous pre-term birth in singleton pregnancies.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the potential cost-effectiveness of alternative 'test-and-treat' strategies in the prevention of spontaneous pre-term birth before 34 and 37 weeks' gestation. DESIGN: Model-based economic evaluation. Setting. Clinics, general practices, health centers or any setting delivering antenatal care. POPULATION: Asymptomatic women in early pregnancy and symptomatic women with threatened pre-term labor in later pregnancy. METHODS: Data from systematic reviews of effectiveness and accuracy were combined into strategies and analyzed using a decision-tree model. Full deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were carried out. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Spontaneous pre-term labor avoided for asymptomatic women and spontaneous pre-term birth avoided for symptomatic women. RESULTS: The systematic reviews identified evidence on the accuracy of 22 types of tests and on the effectiveness of 40 possible interventions. Cost data were based on secondary evidence, supplemented with primary data from local sources. Testing prior to intervention was not shown to be the most cost-effective strategy in the main analyses for 34 and 37 weeks. Prophylactic fish oil in asymptomatic women, without prior testing, was highlighted as potentially cost-effective in preventing threatened pre-term labor before 34 weeks. In symptomatic women with a viable pregnancy, indomethacin without prior testing was a potentially cost-effective strategy to prevent pre-term birth occurring before 37 weeks. CONCLUSION: An effective, affordable and safe intervention applied to all mothers without prior testing is likely to be the most cost-effective strategy in the prevention of spontaneous pre-term labor and birth. The results reported in this paper are important for prioritizing future research, world-wide.