Predicting resilience of migratory birds to environmental change.

The pace and scale of environmental change represent major challenges to many organisms. Animals that move long distances, such as migratory birds, are especially vulnerable to change since they need chains of intact habitat along their migratory routes. Estimating the resilience of such species to environmental changes assists in targeting conservation efforts. We developed a migration modeling framework to predict past (1960s), present (2010s), and future (2060s) optimal migration strategies across five shorebird species (Scolopacidae) within the East Asian-Australasian Flyway, which has seen major habitat deterioration and loss over the last century, and compared these predictions to empirical tracks from the present. Our model captured the migration strategies of the five species and identified the changes in migrations needed to respond to habitat deterioration and climate change. Notably, the larger species, with single or few major stopover sites, need to establish new migration routes and strategies, while smaller species can buffer habitat loss by redistributing their stopover areas to novel or less-used sites. Comparing model predictions with empirical tracks also indicates that larger species with the stronger need for adaptations continue to migrate closer to the optimal routes of the past, before habitat deterioration accelerated. Our study not only quantifies the vulnerability of species in the face of global change but also explicitly reveals the extent of adaptations required to sustain their migrations. This modeling framework provides a tool for conservation planning that can accommodate the future needs of migratory species.

Duration and variability of spring green-up mediate population consequences of climate change.

Single phenological measures, like the average rate of phenological advancement, may be insufficient to explain how climate change is driving trends in animal populations. Here, we develop a multifactorial concept of spring phenology-including the onset of spring, spring duration, interannual variability, and their temporal changes-as a driver for population dynamics of migratory terrestrial species in seasonal environments. Using this conceptual model, we found that effects of advancing spring phenology on animal populations may be buffered or amplified depending on the duration and interannual variability of spring green-up, and those effects are modified by evolutionary and plastic adaptations of species. Furthermore, we compared our modelling results with empirical data on normalized difference vegetation index-based spring green-up phenology and population trends of 106 European landbird finding similar associations. We conclude how phenological changes are expected to affect migratory bird populations across Europe and identify regions that are particularly prone to suffer population declines.

The association between haemosporidian infection and non-breeding moult location in great reed warblers revisited by combining feather stable isotope profiles and geolocator data.

Stable isotope analysis provides valuable insights into the ecology of long-distance migratory birds during periods spent away from a specific study site. In a previous study, Swedish great reed warblers (Acrocephalus arundinaceus) infected with haemosporidian parasites differed in feather isotope ratios compared to non-infected birds, suggesting that infected and non-infected birds spent the non-breeding season in different locations or habitats. Here, we use a novel dataset comprising geolocator data, isotopes, and haemosporidian infection status of 92 individuals from four Eurasian populations to investigate whether parasite transmission varies with geography or habitats. We found that the probability of harbouring Plasmodium and Leucocytozoon parasites was higher in birds moulting in the eastern region of the non-breeding grounds. However, no geographic pattern occurred for Haemoproteus infections or overall infection status. In contrast to the previous study, we did not find any relationship between feather isotope ratios and overall haemosporidian infection for the entire current dataset. Plasmodium-infected birds had lower feather δ15N values indicating that they occupied more mesic habitats. Leucocytozoon-infected birds had higher feather δ34S values suggesting more coastal sites or wetlands with anoxic sulphate reduction. As the composition and prevalence of haemosporidian parasites differed between the old and the current dataset, we suggest that the differences might be a consequence of temporal dynamics of haemosporidian parasites. Our results emphasize the importance of replicating studies conducted on a single population over a restricted time period, as the patterns can become more complex for data from wider geographical areas and different time periods.

Climatic drivers of (changes in) bat migration phenology at Bracken Cave (USA).

Climate change is drastically changing the timing of biological events across the globe. Changes in the phenology of seasonal migrations between the breeding and wintering grounds have been observed across biological taxa, including birds, mammals, and insects. For birds, strong links have been shown between changes in migration phenology and changes in weather conditions at the wintering, stopover, and breeding areas. For other animal taxa, the current understanding of, and evidence for, climate (change) influences on migration still remains rather limited, mainly due to the lack of long-term phenology datasets. Bracken Cave in Texas (USA) holds one of the largest bat colonies of the world. Using weather radar data, a unique 23-year (1995-2017) long time series was recently produced of the spring and autumn migration phenology of Brazilian free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis) at Bracken Cave. Here, we analyse these migration phenology time series in combination with gridded temperature, precipitation, and wind data across Mexico and southern USA, to identify the climatic drivers of (changes in) bat migration phenology. Perhaps surprisingly, our extensive spatiotemporal search did not find temperature to influence either spring or autumn migration. Instead, spring migration phenology seems to be predominantly driven by wind conditions at likely wintering or spring stopover areas during the migration period. Autumn migration phenology, on the other hand, seems to be dominated by precipitation to the east and north-east of Bracken Cave. Long-term changes towards more frequent migration and favourable wind conditions have, furthermore, allowed spring migration to occur 16 days earlier. Our results illustrate how some of the remaining knowledge gaps on the influence of climate (change) on bat migration and abundance can be addressed using weather radar analyses.

Environmental variability, reliability of information and the timing of migration.

The timing of migration and migratory steps is highly relevant for fitness. Because environmental conditions vary between years, the optimal time for migration varies accordingly. Therefore, migratory animals could clearly benefit from acquiring information as to when it is the best time to migrate in a specific year. Thus, environmental predictability and variability are fundamental characteristics of migration systems but their relationship and consequence for migratory progression has remained unexplored. We develop a simple dynamic model to identify the optimal migration behaviour in environments that differ in predictability, variability and the number of intermediate stop-over sites. Our results indicate that higher predictability along migration routes enables organisms to better time migration when phenology deviates from its long-term average and thus, increases fitness. Information is particularly valuable in highly variable environments and in the final migration-step, i.e. before the destination. Furthermore, we show that a general strategy for obtaining information in relatively uninformative but variable environments is using intermediate stop-over sites that enable migrants to better predict conditions ahead. Our study contributes to a better understanding of the relationship between animal movement and environmental predictability-an important, yet underappreciated factor that strongly influences migratory progression.

Light-level geolocator analyses: A user's guide.

Light-level geolocator tags use ambient light recordings to estimate the whereabouts of an individual over the time it carried the device. Over the past decade, these tags have emerged as an important tool and have been used extensively for tracking animal migrations, most commonly small birds. Analysing geolocator data can be daunting to new and experienced scientists alike. Over the past decades, several methods with fundamental differences in the analytical approach have been developed to cope with the various caveats and the often complicated data. Here, we explain the concepts behind the analyses of geolocator data and provide a practical guide for the common steps encompassing most analyses - annotation of twilights, calibration, estimating and refining locations, and extraction of movement patterns - describing good practices and common pitfalls for each step. We discuss criteria for deciding whether or not geolocators can answer proposed research questions, provide guidance in choosing an appropriate analysis method and introduce key features of the newest open-source analysis tools. We provide advice for how to interpret and report results, highlighting parameters that should be reported in publications and included in data archiving. Finally, we introduce a comprehensive supplementary online manual that applies the concepts to several datasets, demonstrates the use of open-source analysis tools with step-by-step instructions and code and details our recommendations for interpreting, reporting and archiving.

A full annual perspective on sex-biased migration timing in long-distance migratory birds.

In many taxa, the most common form of sex-biased migration timing is protandry-the earlier arrival of males at breeding areas. Here we test this concept across the annual cycle of long-distance migratory birds. Using more than 350 migration tracks of small-bodied trans-Saharan migrants, we quantify differences in male and female migration schedules and test for proximate determinants of sex-specific timing. In autumn, males started migration about 2 days earlier, but this difference did not carry over to arrival at the non-breeding sites. In spring, males on average departed from the African non-breeding sites about 3 days earlier and reached breeding sites ca 4 days ahead of females. A cross-species comparison revealed large variation in the level of protandry and protogyny across the annual cycle. While we found tight links between individual timing of departure and arrival within each migration season, only for males the timing of spring migration was linked to the timing of previous autumn migration. In conclusion, our results demonstrate that protandry is not exclusively a reproductive strategy but rather occurs year-round and the two main proximate determinants for the magnitude of sex-biased arrival times in autumn and spring are sex-specific differences in departure timing and migration duration.

Low intensity blood parasite infections do not reduce the aerobic performance of migratory birds.

Blood parasites (Haemosporidia) are thought to impair the flight performance of infected animals, and therefore, infected birds are expected to differ from their non-infected counterparts in migratory capacity. Since haemosporidians invade host erythrocytes, it is commonly assumed that infected individuals will have compromised aerobic capacity, but this has not been examined in free-living birds. We tested if haemosporidian infections affect aerobic performance by examining metabolic rates and exercise endurance in migratory great reed warblers (Acrocephalus arundinaceus) experimentally treated with Plasmodium relictum pGRW04 and in naturally infected wild birds over consecutive life-history stages. We found no effect of acute or chronic infections on resting metabolic rate, maximum metabolic rate or exercise endurance in either experimentally treated or free-living birds. Oxygen consumption rates during rest and while undergoing maximum exercise as well as exercise endurance increased from breeding to migration stages in both infected and non-infected birds. Importantly, phenotypic changes associated with preparation for migration were similarly unaffected by parasitaemia. Consequently, migratory birds experiencing parasitaemia levels typical of chronic infection do not differ in migratory capacity from their uninfected counterparts. Thus, if infected hosts differ from uninfected conspecifics in migration phenology, other mechanisms besides aerobic capacity should be considered.

Migratory connectivity in the context of differential migration.

Understanding how breeding populations are spatially and temporarily associated with one another over the annual cycle has important implications for population dynamics. Migratory connectivity typically assumes that populations mix randomly; yet, in many species and populations, sex-, age- or other subgroups migrate separately, and/or spend the non-breeding period separated from each other-a phenomenon coined differential migration. These subgroups likely experience varying environmental conditions, which may carry-over to affect body condition, reproductive success and survival. We argue that environmental or habitat changes can have disproportional effects on a population's demographic rates under differential migration compared to random mixing. Depending on the relative contribution of each of these subgroups to population growth, environmental perturbations may be buffered (under-proportional) or amplified (over-proportional). Thus, differential migration may result in differential mortality and carry-over effects that can have concomitant consequences for dynamics and resilience of the populations. Recognizing the role of differential migration in migratory connectivity and its consequences on population dynamics can assist in developing conservation actions that are tailored to the most influential demographic group(s) and the times and places where they are at peril.

Diverse migration strategies in hoopoes (Upupa epops) lead to weak spatial but strong temporal connectivity.

The annual cycle of migrating birds is shaped by their seasonal movements between breeding and non-breeding sites. Studying how migratory populations are linked throughout the annual cycle-migratory connectivity, is crucial to understanding the population dynamics of migrating bird species. This requires the consideration not only of spatial scales as has been the main focus to date but also of temporal scales: only when both aspects are taken into account, the degree of migratory connectivity can be properly defined. We investigated the migration behaviour of hoopoes (Upupa epops) from four breeding populations across Europe and characterised migration routes to and from the breeding grounds, location of non-breeding sites and the timing of key migration events. Migration behaviour was found to vary both within and amongst populations, and even though the spatial migratory connectivity amongst the populations was weak, temporal connectivity was strong with differences in timing amongst populations, but consistent timing within populations. The combination of diverse migration routes within populations and co-occurrence on the non-breeding grounds between populations might promote exchange between breeding populations. As a result, it might make hoopoes and other migrating bird species with similar strategies more resilient to future habitat or climatic changes and stabilise population trends.

Host migration strategy and blood parasite infections of three sparrow species sympatrically breeding in Southeast Europe.

Mobile hosts like birds occupy a wide array of habitats in which they encounter various vector and parasite faunas. If the infection probability for vector-borne parasites varies among seasons and biomes, a migratory life can critically influence the infections of a host. The growing body of literature on avian blood parasites suggests that host migrations do not only influence prevalence of infection but can also evoke higher infection intensities and increased parasite diversity in migrant compared to resident host species. We investigated the prevalence, intensity and diversity of Plasmodium and Haemoproteus infections in three closely-related and sympatrically breeding sparrow species with different migration strategies ranging from residential house sparrow and partially migratory tree sparrow to the obligate migratory Spanish sparrow. With a prevalence of 49%, the migratory Spanish sparrows were significantly less frequently infected than the resident house sparrows (82%). The partially migratory tree sparrow showed an intermediate prevalence of 60%. The parasitaemias were similar in all three host species and indicated mostly chronic but also few acute infections. While we found Plasmodium parasites in all three sparrow species, only Spanish sparrows were infected with Haemoproteus parasites in our study. With nine clearly identified parasite lineages in our study and the highest number of lineages per infected individuals (i.e. relative diversity), Spanish sparrows harboured the most diverse parasite fauna. Our results suggest that migration strategies can affect Plasmodium and Haemoproteus infections of sparrows resulting in a lower parasite prevalence and higher parasite diversity in migratory hosts-at least during our host's breeding period. A general scope for all annual cycle periods and across various bird taxa remains to be elucidated.

Potential for an Arctic-breeding migratory bird to adjust spring migration phenology to Arctic amplification.

Arctic amplification, the accelerated climate warming in the polar regions, is causing a more rapid advancement of the onset of spring in the Arctic than in temperate regions. Consequently, the arrival of many migratory birds in the Arctic is thought to become increasingly mismatched with the onset of local spring, consequently reducing individual fitness and potentially even population levels. We used a dynamic state variable model to study whether Arctic long-distance migrants can advance their migratory schedules under climate warming scenarios which include Arctic amplification, and whether such an advancement is constrained by fuel accumulation or the ability to anticipate climatic changes. Our model predicts that barnacle geese Branta leucopsis suffer from considerably reduced reproductive success with increasing Arctic amplification through mistimed arrival, when they cannot anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring from their wintering grounds. When geese are able to anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring, they are predicted to advance their spring arrival under Arctic amplification up to 44 days without any reproductive costs in terms of optimal condition or timing of breeding. Negative effects of mistimed arrival on reproduction are predicted to be somewhat mitigated by increasing summer length under warming in the Arctic, as late arriving geese can still breed successfully. We conclude that adaptation to Arctic amplification may rather be constrained by the (un)predictability of changes in the Arctic spring than by the time available for fuel accumulation. Social migrants like geese tend to have a high behavioural plasticity regarding stopover site choice and migration schedule, giving them the potential to adapt to future climate changes on their flyway.

From Agricultural Benefits to Aviation Safety: Realizing the Potential of Continent-Wide Radar Networks.

Migratory animals provide a multitude of services and disservices-with benefits or costs in the order of billions of dollars annually. Monitoring, quantifying, and forecasting migrations across continents could assist diverse stakeholders in utilizing migrant services, reducing disservices, or mitigating human-wildlife conflicts. Radars are powerful tools for such monitoring as they can assess directional intensities, such as migration traffic rates, and biomass transported. Currently, however, most radar applications are local or small scale and therefore substantially limited in their ability to address large-scale phenomena. As weather radars are organized into continent-wide networks and also detect "biological targets," they could routinely monitor aerial migrations over the relevant spatial scales and over the timescales required for detecting responses to environmental perturbations. To tap these unexploited resources, a concerted effort is needed among diverse fields of expertise and among stakeholders to recognize the value of the existing infrastructure and data beyond weather forecasting.

Forecasting spring from afar? Timing of migration and predictability of phenology along different migration routes of an avian herbivore.

Herbivorous birds are hypothesized to migrate in spring along a seasonal gradient of plant profitability towards their breeding grounds (green wave hypothesis). For Arctic breeding species in particular, following highly profitable food is important, so that they can replenish resources along the way and arrive in optimal body condition to start breeding early. We compared the timing of migratory movements of Arctic breeding geese on different flyways to examine whether flyways differed in the predictability of spring conditions at stopovers and whether this was reflected in the degree to which birds were following the green wave. Barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis) were tracked with solar GPS/ARGOS PTTs from their wintering grounds to breeding sites in Greenland (N = 7), Svalbard (N = 21) and the Barents Sea (N = 12). The numerous stopover sites of all birds were combined into a set of 16 general stopover regions. The predictability of climatic conditions along the flyways was calculated as the correlation and slope between onsets of spring at consecutive stopovers. These values differed between sites, mainly because of the presence or absence of ecological barriers. Goose arrival at stopovers was more closely tied to the local onset of spring when predictability was higher and when geese attempted breeding that year. All birds arrived at early stopovers after the onset of spring and arrived at the breeding grounds before the onset of spring, thus overtaking the green wave. This is in accordance with patterns expected for capital breeders: first, they must come into condition; at intermediate stopovers, arrival with the food quality peak is important to stay in condition, and at the breeding grounds, early arrival is favoured so that hatching of young can coincide with the peak of food quality. Our results suggest that a chain of correlations between climatic conditions at subsequent stopovers enables geese to closely track the green wave. However, the birds' precision of migratory timing seems uninfluenced by ecological barriers, indicating partly fixed migration schedules. These might become non-optimal due to climate warming and preclude accurate timing of long-distance migrants in the future.

Individual migration timing of common nightingales is tuned with vegetation and prey phenology at breeding sites.

BACKGROUND: The timing of migration substantially influences individual fitness. To match peak requirements with peak resource availability, we hypothesized that individual migrants schedule spring migration in close relation to seasonal changes in environmental conditions along the route and particularly, at the breeding destination.To test this hypothesis, we investigated the timing of spring migration in male common nightingales Luscinia megarhynchos, a small Palearctic-African long-distance migrant, by linking spring migration timing to the phenology of local environmental conditions at non-breeding migratory stopover and breeding sites. In particular, we related individual migration decisions (i.e. departure and arrival) of nine males to site-specific vegetation phenology (based on remotely sensed vegetation index) and a proxy of food availability (based on insects' thermal requirements). RESULTS: We found weak relation of departures from non-breeding and no relation of stopover timing with local phenology. However, our results showed that individuals, which departed early from their non-breeding sites and arrived early at the breeding site closely matched spring green-up there. Early arrival at the breeding site meant also a close match with peak food availability for adults and in a time-lagged manner, for offspring. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that male nightingale used cues other than local phenology for their departure decisions from non-breeding grounds and that there is some evidence for equalizing late departures during the course of migration.

Monitoring aerial insect biodiversity: a radar perspective.

In the current biodiversity crisis, populations of many species have alarmingly declined, and insects are no exception to this general trend. Biodiversity monitoring has become an essential asset to detect biodiversity change but remains patchy and challenging for organisms that are small, inconspicuous or make (nocturnal) long-distance movements. Radars are powerful remote-sensing tools that can provide detailed information on intensity, timing, altitude and spatial scale of aerial movements and might therefore be particularly suited for monitoring aerial insects and their movements. Importantly, they can contribute to several essential biodiversity variables (EBVs) within a harmonized observation system. We review existing research using small-scale biological and weather surveillance radars for insect monitoring and outline how the derived measures and quantities can contribute to the EBVs 'species population', 'species traits', 'community composition' and 'ecosystem function'. Furthermore, we synthesize how ongoing and future methodological, analytical and technological advancements will greatly expand the use of radar for insect biodiversity monitoring and beyond. Owing to their long-term and regional-to-large-scale deployment, radar-based approaches can be a powerful asset in the biodiversity monitoring toolbox whose potential has yet to be fully tapped. This article is part of the theme issue 'Towards a toolkit for global insect biodiversity monitoring'.

Towards a toolkit for global insect biodiversity monitoring.

Insects are the most diverse group of animals on Earth, yet our knowledge of their diversity, ecology and population trends remains abysmally poor. Four major technological approaches are coming to fruition for use in insect monitoring and ecological research-molecular methods, computer vision, autonomous acoustic monitoring and radar-based remote sensing-each of which has seen major advances over the past years. Together, they have the potential to revolutionize insect ecology, and to make all-taxa, fine-grained insect monitoring feasible across the globe. So far, advances within and among technologies have largely taken place in isolation, and parallel efforts among projects have led to redundancy and a methodological sprawl; yet, given the commonalities in their goals and approaches, increased collaboration among projects and integration across technologies could provide unprecedented improvements in taxonomic and spatio-temporal resolution and coverage. This theme issue showcases recent developments and state-of-the-art applications of these technologies, and outlines the way forward regarding data processing, cost-effectiveness, meaningful trend analysis, technological integration and open data requirements. Together, these papers set the stage for the future of automated insect monitoring. This article is part of the theme issue 'Towards a toolkit for global insect biodiversity monitoring'.

Continental-scale patterns in diel flight timing of high-altitude migratory insects.

Many insects depend on high-altitude, migratory movements during part of their life cycle. The daily timing of these migratory movements is not random, e.g. many insect species show peak migratory flight activity at dawn, noon or dusk. These insects provide essential ecosystem services such as pollination but also contribute to crop damage. Quantifying the diel timing of their migratory flight and its geographical and seasonal variation, are hence key towards effective conservation and pest management. Vertical-looking radars provide continuous and automated measurements of insect migration, but large-scale application has not been possible because of limited availability of suitable devices. Here, we quantify patterns in diel flight periodicity of migratory insects between 50 and 500 m above ground level during March-October 2021 using a network of 17 vertical-looking radars across Europe. Independent of the overall daily migratory movements and location, peak migratory movements occur around noon, during crepuscular evening and occasionally the morning. Relative daily proportions of insect migration intensity and traffic during the diel phases of crepuscular-morning, day, crepuscular-evening and night remain largely equal throughout May-September and across Europe. These findings highlight, extend, and generalize previous regional-scale findings on diel migratory insect movement patterns to the whole of temperate Europe. This article is part of the theme issue 'Towards a toolkit for global insect biodiversity monitoring'.

Mechanistic models of animal migration behaviour--their diversity, structure and use.

1. Migration is a widespread phenomenon in the animal kingdom, including many taxonomic groups and modes of locomotion. Developing an understanding of the proximate and ultimate causes for this behaviour not only addresses fundamental ecological questions but has relevance to many other fields, for example in relation to the spread of emerging zoonotic diseases, the proliferation of invasive species, aeronautical safety as well as the conservation of migrants. 2. Theoretical methods can make important contributions to our understanding of migration, by allowing us to integrate findings on this complex behaviour, identify caveats in our understanding and to guide future empirical research efforts. Various mechanistic models exist to date, but their applications seem to be scattered and far from evenly distributed across taxonomic units. 3. Therefore, we provide an overview of the major mechanistic modelling approaches used in the study of migration behaviour and characterize their fundamental features, assumptions and limitations and discuss their typical data requirements both for model parameterization and for scrutinizing model predictions. 4. Furthermore, we review 155 studies that have used mechanistic models to study animal migration and analyse them with regard to the approaches used and the focal species, and also explore their contribution to advancing current knowledge within six broad migration ecology research themes. 5. This identifies important gaps in our present knowledge, which should be tackled in future research using existing and to-be developed theoretical approaches.

Faltering lemming cycles reduce productivity and population size of a migratory Arctic goose species.

The huge changes in population sizes of Arctic-nesting geese offer a great opportunity to study population limitation in migratory animals. In geese, population limitation seems to have shifted from wintering to summering grounds. There, in the Arctic, climate is rapidly changing, and this may impact reproductive performance, and perhaps population size of geese, both directly (e.g. by changes in snow melt) or indirectly (e.g. by changes in trophic interactions). Dark-bellied brent geese (Branta bernicla bernicla L.) increased 20-fold since the 1950s. Its reproduction fluctuates strongly in concert with the 3-year lemming cycle. An earlier analysis, covering the growth period until 1988, did not find evidence for density dependence, but thereafter the population levelled off and even decreased. The question is whether this is caused by changes in lemming cycles, population density or other factors like carry-over effects. Breeding success was derived from proportions of juveniles. We used an information-theoretical approach to investigate which environmental factors best explained the variation in breeding success over nearly 50 years (1960-2008). We subsequently combined GLM predictions of breeding success with published survival estimates to project the population trajectory since 1991 (year of maximum population size). In this way, we separated the effects of lemming abundance and population density on population development. Breeding success was mainly dependent on lemming abundance, the onset of spring at the breeding grounds, and the population size of brent goose. No evidence was found for carry-over effects (i.e. effects of conditions at main spring staging site). Negative density dependence was operating at a population size above c. 200 000 individuals, but the levelling off of the population could be explained by faltering lemming cycles alone. Lemmings have long been known to affect population productivity of Arctic-nesting migratory birds and, more recently, possibly population dynamics of resident bird species, but this is the first evidence for effects of lemming abundance on population size of a migratory bird species. Why lemming cycles are faltering in the last two decades is unclear, but this may be associated with changes in winter climate at Taimyr Peninsula (Siberia).