Comparing the accuracy of prediction models to detect clinically relevant post-hepatectomy liver failure early after major hepatectomy.

BACKGROUND: Arterial lactate measurements were recently suggested as an early predictor of clinically relevant post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF). This needed to be evaluated in the subgroup of major hepatectomies only. METHOD: This observational cohort study included consecutive elective major hepatectomies at Karolinska University Hospital from 2010 to 2018. Clinical risk factors for PHLF, perioperative arterial lactate measurements and routine lab values were included in uni- and multivariable regression analysis. Receiver operating characteristics and risk cut-offs were calculated. RESULTS: In total, 649 patients constituted the study cohort, of which 92 developed PHLF grade B/C according to the International Study Group of Liver Surgery (ISGLS). Lactate reached significantly higher intra- and postoperative levels in PHLF grades B and C compared to grade A or no liver failure (all P < 0.002). Lactate on postoperative day (POD) 1 was superior to earlier measurement time points in predicting PHLF B/C (AUC 0.75), but was outperformed by both clinical risk factors (AUC 0.81, P = 0.031) and bilirubin POD1 (AUC 0.83, P = 0.013). A multivariable logistic regression model including clinical risk factors and bilirubin POD1 had the highest AUC of 0.87 (P = 0.006), with 56.6% sensitivity and 94.7% specificity for PHLF grade B/C (cut-off ≥0.32). The model identified 46.7% of patients with 90-day mortality and had an equally good discriminatory potential for mortality as the established ISGLS criteria for PHLF grade B/C but could be applied already on POD1. CONCLUSION: The potential of lactate to predict PHLF following major hepatectomy was inferior to a prediction model consisting of clinical risk factors and bilirubin on first post-operative day.

An APRI+ALBI Based Multivariable Model as Preoperative Predictor for Posthepatectomy Liver Failure.

OBJECTIVE AND BACKGROUND: Clinically significant posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF B+C) remains the main cause of mortality after major hepatic resection. This study aimed to establish an APRI+ALBI, aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio (APRI) combined with albumin-bilirubin grade (ALBI), based multivariable model (MVM) to predict PHLF and compare its performance to indocyanine green clearance (ICG-R15 or ICG-PDR) and albumin-ICG evaluation (ALICE). METHODS: 12,056 patients from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database were used to generate a MVM to predict PHLF B+C. The model was determined using stepwise backwards elimination. Performance of the model was tested using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and validated in an international cohort of 2,525 patients. In 620 patients, the APRI+ALBI MVM, trained in the NSQIP cohort, was compared with MVM's based on other liver function tests (ICG clearance, ALICE) by comparing the areas under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: A MVM including APRI+ALBI, age, sex, tumor type and extent of resection was found to predict PHLF B+C with an AUC of 0.77, with comparable performance in the validation cohort (AUC 0.74). In direct comparison with other MVM's based on more expensive and time-consuming liver function tests (ICG clearance, ALICE), the APRI+ALBI MVM demonstrated equal predictive potential for PHLF B+C. A smartphone application for calculation of the APRI+ALBI MVM was designed. CONCLUSION: Risk assessment via the APRI+ALBI MVM for PHLF B+C increases preoperative predictive accuracy and represents an universally available and cost-effective risk assessment prior to hepatectomy, facilitated by a freely available smartphone app.

Impact of post-hepatectomy liver failure on morbidity and short- and long-term survival after major hepatectomy.

BACKGROUND: Post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) is one of the most serious postoperative complications after hepatectomy. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of the International Study Group of Liver Surgery (ISGLS) definition of PHLF on morbidity and short- and long-term survival after major hepatectomy. METHODS: This was a retrospective review of all patients who underwent major hepatectomy (three or more liver segments) for various liver tumours between 2010 and 2018 at two Swedish tertiary centres for hepatopancreatobiliary surgery. Descriptive statistics, regression models, and survival analyses were used. RESULTS: A total of 799 patients underwent major hepatectomy, of which 218 patients (27 per cent) developed ISGLS-defined PHLF, including 115 patients (14 per cent) with ISGLS grade A, 76 patients (10 per cent) with grade B, and 27 patients (3 per cent) with grade C. The presence of cirrhosis, perihilar cholangiocarcinoma, and gallbladder cancer, right-sided hemihepatectomy and trisectionectomy all significantly increased the risk of clinically relevant PHLF (grades B and C). Clinically relevant PHLF increased the risk of 90-day mortality and was associated with impaired long-term survival. ISGLS grade A had more major postoperative complications compared with no PHLF but failed to be an independent predictor of both 90-day mortality and long-term survival. The impact of PHLF grade B/C on long-term survival was no longer present in patients surviving the first 90 days after surgery. CONCLUSIONS: The presently used ISGLS definition for PHLF should be reconsidered regarding mortality as only PHLF grade B/C was associated with a negative impact on short-term survival; however, even ISGLS grade A had clinical implications.

Molecular adsorbent recirculating system treatment in patients with post-hepatectomy liver failure: Long-term results of a pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) is the leading cause of postoperative mortality following major liver resection. Between December 2012 and May 2015, 10 consecutive patients with PHLF (according to the Balzan criteria) following major/extended hepatectomy were included in a prospective treatment study with the molecular adsorbent recirculating system (MARS). Sixty- and 90-day mortality rates were 0% and 10%, respectively. Of the nine survivors, four still had liver dysfunction at 90 days postoperatively. One-year overall survival (OS) of the MARS-PHLF cohort was 50%. The present study aims to assess long-term outcome of this cohort compared to a historical control cohort. METHODS: To compare long-term outcome of the MARS-PHLF treatment cohort with PHLF patients not treated with MARS, the present study includes all 655 patients who underwent major hepatectomy at Karolinska University Hospital between 2010 and 2018. Patients with PHLF were identified according to the Balzan criteria. RESULTS: The cohort was split into three time periods: pre-MARS period (n = 192), MARS study period (n = 207), and post-MARS period (n = 256). The 90-day mortality of patients with PHLF was 55% (6/11) in the pre-MARS period, 14% during the MARS study period (2/14), and 50% (3/6) in the post-MARS period (p = 0.084). Median OS (95% confidence interval (CI)) was 37.8 months (29.3-51.7) in the pre-MARS cohort, 57 months (40.7-75.6) in the MARS cohort, and 38.8 months (31.4-51.2) in the post-MARS cohort. The 5-year OS of 10 patients included in the MARS study was 40% and the median survival 11.6 months (95% CI: 3 to not releasable). In contrast, for the remaining 21 patients fulfilling the Balzan criteria during the study period but not treated with MARS, the 5-year OS and median survival were 9.5% and 7.3 months (95% CI, 0.5-25.9), respectively (p = 0.138)). CONCLUSIONS: MARS treatment may contribute to improved outcome of patients with PHLF. Further studies are needed.The initial pilot study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03011424).

Angioedema as a predominant symptom of Bordetella pertussis infection.

A 41-year-old woman was referred to our hospital with a 6-week history of severe angioedema, dyspnoea and coughing. Initial investigations focused on common causes of angioedema. Clinical presentation and resistance to treatment with antihistamines and steroids made histamine-mediated angioedema unlikely. Bradykinin-mediated angioedema, such as hereditary or drug-induced angioedema, was excluded by a thorough history investigation and laboratory testing for C1-esterase and C4.In rare cases, exogen pathogens cause angioedema. After profound testing for respiratory pathogens, Bordetella pertussis toxins IgA and IgG were found to be positive, indicating recent B. pertussis infection. Pertussis toxin may be responsible for increased vascular permeability causing angioedema. With adequate antibiotic treatment, the symptoms resolved quickly.This case is an example of an atypical presentation of B. pertussis infection in an unvaccinated adult. The recent resurgence of pertussis makes early diagnosis and disease prevention by vaccination crucial.

Utilization and Efficacy of Palliative Chemotherapy for Locally Advanced or Metastatic Gastroesophageal Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND/AIM: A standard treatment recommendation for advanced stage gastroesophageal cancer is still missing. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed clinical data of patients with inoperable locally advanced or metastatic gastroesophageal cancer treated between 2001 and 2017 at the Vienna General Hospital, Austria. RESULTS: Administration of systemic therapy was positively associated with overall survival (OS) (469 days vs. 185 days; p<0.001), while palliative gastrectomy or radiotherapy showed no correlation. OS was significantly longer in patients receiving capecitabine/oxaliplatin (XELOX) vs. leucovorin/5-FU/oxaliplatin (FOLFOX) (600 days vs. 327 days, p<0.05). Comparison of doublet vs. triplet chemotherapies showed no difference in OS, but triplet chemotherapy resulted in more adverse events. The anti-HER2-antibody trastuzumab doubled OS (836 days vs. 399 days, p=0.053). CONCLUSION: Capecitabine may be preferably used over infused 5-FU and doublet chemotherapy over triplet chemotherapy in the first-line palliative setting of advanced gastroesophageal cancer.

The 3-60 criteria challenge established predictors of postoperative mortality and enable timely therapeutic intervention after liver resection.

BACKGROUND: To date, definitions of liver dysfunction (LD) after hepatic resection rely on late postoperative time points. Further, the used parameters are markedly influenced by perioperative management. Thus, we aimed to establish a very early postoperative score to predict postoperative mortality. METHODS: Liver related parameters were evaluated after liver resection in a retrospective evaluation cohort of 228 colorectal cancer patients with liver metastasis (mCRC) and subsequent validation in a prospective set of 482 consecutive patients from 4 independent institutions undergoing hepatic resection was performed. RESULTS: C-reactive protein (CRP, AUC =0.739, P<0.001) and antithrombinIII-activity (ATIII, AUC =0.844, P<0.001) on the first postoperative day (POD) were found to be elevated in patients with LD. Cut-off values for CRP at 3 mg/dL and for ATIII at 60% significantly identified high-risk patients for postoperative LD and mortality (P<0.001) and thus defined the 3-60 criteria on POD1. The 3-60 criteria showed superior sensitivity and specificity compared to established criteria for LD [3-60 criteria: total positive patients: 26 patients (70% mortality detected), odds ratio (OR): 48.8; International Study Group for Liver Surgery: total positive patients: 43 (70% mortality detected), OR: 23.3; Peak7: total positive patients: 9 (30% mortality detected), OR: 27.8; 50-50: total positive patients: 9 (30% mortality detected), OR: 27.8]. These results could be validated in a multi-center analysis and ultimately the 3-60 criteria remained an independent predictor of postoperative mortality upon multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The 3-60 criteria on POD1 predict postoperative LD and mortality early after liver resection with a comparable or better accuracy than established criteria, allowing for immediate identification of high-risk patients.