Estimating Post-treatment Recurrence After Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis Treatment Among Patients With and Without Human Immunodeficiency Virus: The Impact of Assumptions About Death and Missing Follow-up.

BACKGROUND: Quantification of recurrence risk following successful treatment is crucial to evaluating regimens for multidrug- or rifampicin-resistant (MDR/RR) tuberculosis (TB). However, such analyses are complicated when some patients die or become lost during post-treatment follow-up. METHODS: We analyzed data on 1991 patients who successfully completed a longer MDR/RR-TB regimen containing bedaquiline and/or delamanid between 2015 and 2018 in 16 countries. Using 5 approaches for handling post-treatment deaths, we estimated 6-month post-treatment TB recurrence risk overall and by HIV status. We used inverse-probability weighting to account for patients with missing follow-up and investigated the impact of potential bias from excluding these patients without applying inverse-probability weights. RESULTS: The estimated TB recurrence risk was 7.4/1000 (95% credible interval: 3.3-12.8) when deaths were handled as non-recurrences and 7.6/1000 (3.3-13.0) when deaths were censored and inverse-probability weights were applied to account for the excluded deaths. The estimated risks of composite recurrence outcomes were 25.5 (15.3-38.1), 11.7 (6.4-18.2), and 8.6 (4.1-14.4) per 1000 for recurrence or (1) any death, (2) death with unknown or TB-related cause, or (3) TB-related death, respectively. Corresponding relative risks for HIV status varied in direction and magnitude. Exclusion of patients with missing follow-up without inverse-probability weighting had a small impact on estimates. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated 6-month TB recurrence risk was low, and the association with HIV status was inconclusive due to few recurrence events. Estimation of post-treatment recurrence will be enhanced by explicit assumptions about deaths and appropriate adjustment for missing follow-up data.

Safety and effectiveness of three novel all-oral shortened regimens for rifampicin- or multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Kazakhstan.

BACKGROUND: In 2019, WHO called for operational research on all-oral shortened regimens for multidrug- and rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (MDR/RR-TB). We report safety and effectiveness of three nine-month all-oral regimens containing bedaquiline (Bdq), linezolid (Lzd), and levofloxacin (Lfx) and reinforced with cycloserine (Cs) and clofazimine (Cfz), delamanid (Dlm) and pyrazinamide (Z), or Dlm and Cfz. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of patients initiating treatment for pulmonary MDR/RR-TB under operational research conditions at public health facilities in Kazakhstan. Participants were screened monthly for adverse events. Participants with baseline resistance were excluded from the study and treated with a longer regimen. We analyzed clinically relevant adverse events of special interest in all participants and sputum culture conversion and end-of-treatment outcomes among individuals who were not excluded. RESULTS: Of 510 participants, 41% were women, median age was 37 years (interquartile range: 28-49), 18% had a body mass index <18·5 kg/m2, and 51% had cavitary disease. Three hundred and ninety-nine (78%) initiated Bdq-Lzd-Lfx-Cs-Cfz, 83 (16%) started Bdq-Lzd-Lfx-Dlm-Z, and 28 (5%) initiated Bdq-Lzd-Lfx-Dlm-Cfz. Fifty-eight individuals (11%) were excluded from the study, most commonly due to identification of baseline drug resistance (n = 52; 90%). Among the remaining 452 participants, treatment success frequencies were 92% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 89 to 95), 89% (95%CI: 80 to 94), and 100% (95%CI: 86 to 100) for regimens with Cs/Cfz, Dlm/Z, and Dlm/Cfz respectively. Clinically-relevant adverse events of special interest were uncommon. CONCLUSION: All regimens demonstrated excellent safety and effectiveness, expanding the potential treatment options for patients, providers, and programs.

Estimating post-treatment recurrence after multidrug-resistant tuberculosis treatment among patients with and without HIV: the impact of assumptions about death and missing follow-up.

Background: Quantification of recurrence risk following successful treatment is crucial to evaluating regimens for multidrug- or rifampicin-resistant (MDR/RR) tuberculosis (TB). However, such analyses are complicated when some patients die or become lost during post-treatment-follow-up. Methods: We analyzed data on 1,991 patients who successfully completed a longer MDR/RR-TB regimen containing bedaquiline and/or delamanid between 2015 and 2018 in 16 countries. Using five approaches for handling post-treatment deaths, we estimated the six-month post-treatment TB recurrence risk overall, and by HIV status. We used inverse-probability-weighting to account for patients with missing follow-up and investigated the impact of potential bias from excluding these patients without applying inverse-probability weights. Results: The estimated TB recurrence risk was 6.6 per 1000 (95% confidence interval (CI):3.2,11.2) when deaths were handled as non-recurrences, and 6.7 per 1000 (95% CI:2.8,12.2) when deaths were censored and inverse-probability weights were applied to account for the excluded deaths. The estimated risk of composite recurrence outcomes were 24.2 (95% CI:14.1,37.0), 10.5 (95% CI:5.6,16.6), and 7.8 (95% CI:3.9,13.2) per 1000 for recurrence or 1) any death, 2) death with unknown or TB-related cause, 3) TB-related death, respectively. Corresponding relative risks for HIV status varied in direction and magnitude. Exclusion of patients with missing follow-up without inverse-probability-weighting had a small but apparent impact on estimates. Conclusion: The estimated six-month TB recurrence risk was low, and the association with HIV status was inconclusive due to few recurrence events. Estimation of post-treatment recurrence will be enhanced by explicit assumptions about deaths and appropriate adjustment for missing follow-up data.