Trajectories of oral bisphosphonate use after hip fractures: a population-based cohort study.

Bisphosphonates prevent future hip fractures. However, we found that one in six patients with hip fractures had a delay in bisphosphonate initiation and another one-sixth discontinued treatment within 12 months after discharge. Our results highlight the need to address hesitancy in treatment initiation and continuous monitoring. PURPOSE: Suboptimal antiresorptive use is not well understood. This study investigated trajectories of oral bisphosphonate use following first hip fractures and factors associated with different adherence and persistence trajectories. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of all patients aged ≥ 50 years dispensed two or more bisphosphonate prescriptions following first hip fracture in Victoria, Australia, from 2012 to 2017. Twelve-month trajectories of bisphosphonate use were categorized using group-based trajectory modeling. Factors associated with different trajectories compared to the persistent adherence trajectory were assessed using multivariate multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: We identified four patterns of oral bisphosphonate use in 1811 patients: persistent adherence (66%); delayed dispensing (17%); early discontinuation (9%); and late discontinuation (9%). Pre-admission bisphosphonate use was associated with a lower risk of delayed dispensing in both sexes (relative risk [RR] 0.28, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.21-0.39). Older patients ( ≥ 85 years old versus 50-64 years old, RR 0.38, 95% CI 0.22-0.64) had a lower risk of delayed dispensing. Males with anxiety (RR 9.80, 95% CI 2.24-42.9) and females with previous falls had increased risk of early discontinuation (RR 1.80, 95% CI 1.16-2.78). CONCLUSION: Two-thirds of patients demonstrated good adherence to oral bisphosphonates over 12 months following hip fracture. Efforts to further increase post-discharge antiresorptive use should be sex-specific and address possible persistent uncertainty around delaying treatment initiation.

Current and Future Cost Burden of Ischemic Stroke in Australia: Dynamic Model.

BACKGROUND: Stroke remains one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in Australia. The objective of this study was to estimate the current and future cost burden of ischemic stroke (IS) in Australia. METHOD: First, the annual chronic management cost per person following IS were derived for all people aged ≥30 years discharged from a public or private hospital in Victoria, Australia between July 2012 and June 2017 (with follow-up data until June 2018 [n = 34,471]). Then extrapolated the data from from Victoria to the whole Australian population aged between 30 years and 99 years to project the total healthcare costs following IS (combination of acute event and chronic management cost) over a 20-year period (2019-2038) using a dynamic multistate life table model. Data for the dynamic model were sourced from the Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset (VAED) and supplemented with other published data. RESULT: The estimated annual total chronic management cost following IS was 13,525 Australian dollars (AUD) per person (95% CI: AUD 13,380, AUD 13,670) for cohorts in the VAED between July 2012 and June 2017. The annual chronic management cost was estimated to decline following IS. The highest cost was incurred in the first year of follow-up post-IS (AUD 14,309 per person) and declined to AUD 9,776 in the sixth year of follow-up post-IS. The total healthcare cost for people aged 30-99 years was projected to be AUD 47.7 billion (95% UI: AUD 44.6 billion, AUD 51.0 billion) over the 20-year period (2019-2038) Australia-wide, of which 91.3% (AUD 43.6 billion) was attributed to chronic management costs and the remaining 8.7% (AUD 4.2 billion) were due to acute IS events. CONCLUSION: IS has and will continue to have a considerable financial impact in the next 2 decades on the Australian healthcare system. Our estimated and projected cost burden following IS provides important information for decision making in relation to IS.

Generating and translating evidence for safe and effective medication management in aged care homes.

Generating and translating high-quality evidence is integral to providing safe and effective medication management for residents of aged care homes. Residents are often under-represented in trials of medication effectiveness and safety. This paper reviews opportunities and challenges for generating and translating evidence for safe and effective medication management in aged care homes. There are an increasing number of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) being conducted in aged care homes. Observational studies can also help address the evidence-practice gap arising from underrepresentation of residents in RCTs. Stepped-wedge and helix counterbalanced designs may help overcome limitations of traditional RCTs for evaluating medication management interventions in the aged care setting. Strategies for generating evidence include building effective partnerships with aged care homes and organizations, using novel trial designs, leveraging existing data and knowledge sharing through international platforms. Strategies for translating evidence include using quality indicators for audit and feedback, provision of education and training, engaging internal and external stakeholders, and development of local action plans and guideline implementation tools. There is an emerging interest in the role of knowledge brokers to facilitate knowledge translation. Future directions for generating and translating evidence include strengthening international research collaboration, industry partnerships, standardizing aged care home data to support national and international comparisons, and optimizing the use of technology. Initiatives may include improving access to routinely collected administrative health and medication data for conducting high-quality observational studies. Future studies should assess outcomes prioritized by residents to ensure that medication management strategies are tailored to their needs.

Impact of codeine rescheduling on prescribing of codeine and other opioids: Interrupted time series analyses using Australian general practice data.

AIMS: We aimed to determine the impact of codeine rescheduling on prescribing of codeine and other opioids, with a focus on demographic and diagnoses associated with codeine prescribing before and after rescheduling of codeine to prescription-only in February 2018. METHODS: We used interrupted time series analysis (February 2016-February 2020) and probit regression to examine prescribing of codeine and other opioids according to primary care data from 464 general practice clinics in Victoria, Australia. RESULTS: The rate of codeine prescribing increased in the month following rescheduling (additional 76 people/10000, 95% confidence interval [CI] 49-103), then declined to baseline rates (slope -2.02, 95% CI 3.79, -0.25). Prescribing of other opioids did not change. Post rescheduling, females were more likely to receive codeine prescriptions compared to males (ß = 0.094, 95% CI 0.08-0.108) and those aged 70-79 years were more likely to receive codeine compared to those aged <30 years. Those residing in the least disadvantaged areas had a greater probability of being prescribed codeine than those in more disadvantaged areas after rescheduling (ß = 0.154, 95% CI 0.129-0.179). A documented mental health diagnosis (ß = 0.067, 95% CI 0.052-0.082) or migraine diagnosis (ß = 0.057, 95% CI 0.037-0.078) was associated with increased likelihood of receiving a codeine prescription after rescheduling compared to before in contrast to those without such a diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Codeine rescheduling did not result in a sustained increase in codeine prescribing nor a change in the prescribing of other opioids. Patient factors associated with increased codeine prescribing after compared to before rescheduling included female sex, older age, migraine diagnosis and comorbid mental health conditions. REGISTRATION: EU PAS Register (EUPAS43218).

A mixed-methods study on the pharmacological management of pain in Australian and Japanese nursing homes.

BACKGROUND: Understanding how analgesics are used in different countries can inform initiatives to improve the pharmacological management of pain in nursing homes. AIMS: To compare patterns of analgesic use among Australian and Japanese nursing home residents; and explore Australian and Japanese healthcare professionals' perspectives on analgesic use. METHODS: Part one involved a cross-sectional comparison among residents from 12 nursing homes in South Australia (N = 550) in 2019 and four nursing homes in Tokyo (N = 333) in 2020. Part two involved three focus groups with Australian and Japanese healthcare professionals (N = 16) in 2023. Qualitative data were deductively content analysed using the World Health Organization six-step Guide to Good Prescribing. RESULTS: Australian and Japanese residents were similar in age (median: 89 vs 87) and sex (female: 73% vs 73%). Overall, 74% of Australian and 11% of Japanese residents used regular oral acetaminophen, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs or opioids. Australian and Japanese healthcare professionals described individualising pain management and the first-line use of acetaminophen. Australian participants described their therapeutic goal was to alleviate pain and reported analgesics were often prescribed on a regular basis. Japanese participants described their therapeutic goal was to minimise impacts of pain on daily activities and reported analgesics were often prescribed for short-term durations, corresponding to episodes of pain. Japanese participants described regulations that limit opioid use for non-cancer pain in nursing homes. CONCLUSION: Analgesic use is more prevalent in Australian than Japanese nursing homes. Differences in therapeutic goals, culture, analgesic regulations and treatment durations may contribute to this apparent difference.

Patterns of 12-Month Post-Myocardial Infarction Medication Use According to Revascularisation Strategy: Analysis of 15,339 Admissions in Victoria, Australia.

AIM: Clinical guidelines recommend secondary prevention medications following myocardial infarction (MI) regardless of revascularisation strategy. Studies suggest that there is variation in post-MI medication use following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and coronary artery bypass grafts (CABG). We investigated initial dispensing and 12-month patterns of medication use according to revascularisation strategy following non-ST-elevation MI (NSTEMI). METHOD: We included all public and private hospital admissions for NSTEMI for patients aged ≥30 years in Victoria, Australia, between July 2012 and June 2017. We investigated initial dispensing of P2Y12 inhibitors (P2Y12i), statins (total and high intensity), angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors (ACEi)/angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB), and beta blockers within 60 days after discharge. Twelve-month post-MI medication use was estimated as the proportion of days covered (PDC) over a 12-month period from the date of hospital discharge. Analyses were performed using adjusted regression models, stratified by revascularisation strategy. RESULTS: There were 15,399 admissions for NSTEMI: 11,754 with PCI and 3,645 with CABG. Following adjustments, predicted probability of initial dispensing in the PCI and CABG groups, respectively, was 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.93-0.95) vs 0.17 (0.13-0.21) for P2Y12i; 0.69 (0.66-0.71) vs 0.42 (0.37-0.48) for ACEi/ARB; 0.59 (0.57-0.62) vs 0.69 (0.64-0.74) for beta blockers; 0.89 (0.87-0.91) vs 0.89 (0.85-0.92) for statins; and 0.60 (0.57-0.62) vs 0.69 (0.63-0.73) for high intensity statins. The 12-month PDC in the PCI and CABG groups, respectively, was 0.82 (0.80-0.83) vs 0.12 (0.09-0.15) for P2Y12i; 0.62 (0.60-0.65) vs 0.43 (0.39-0.48) for ACEi/ARB; 0.53 (0.51-0.55) vs 0.632 (0.58-0.66) for beta blockers; 0.79 (0.78-0.81) vs 0.78 (0.74-0.81) for statins; and 0.49 (0.47-0.51) vs 0.55 (0.50-0.59) for high intensity statins. CONCLUSIONS: Post-discharge dispensing of secondary prevention medications differed with respect to revascularisation strategy from 2012 to 2017, despite clear evidence of benefit during this period. Interventions may be needed to address possible clinician and patient uncertainty about the benefits of secondary prevention medications, regardless of revascularisation strategy.

Hematological and Other Cancers in People Using Clozapine: Analysis of Australian Spontaneous Reports Between 1995 and 2020.

BACKGROUND: Recent observational study evidence suggests that clozapine, unlike other antipsychotics, may be associated with a small increased risk of hematological malignancy. This study described characteristics of hematological and other cancers in those taking clozapine reported to the Australian Therapeutic Goods Administration. METHODS: We analyzed public case reports for "clozapine," "Clozaril," or "Clopine" from January 1995 to December 2020 classified as "neoplasm benign, malignant and unspecified" by the Australian Therapeutic Goods Administration. Data on age, sex, dose, clozapine start and cessation dates, Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities reaction terms, and date of cancer were extracted. RESULTS: Overall, 384 spontaneous reports of cancers in people taking clozapine were analyzed. The mean age of patients was 53.9 years (SD, 11.4 years), and 224 (58.3%) were male. The most frequent cancers were hematological (n = 104 [27.1%]), lung (n = 50 [13.0%]), breast (n = 37 [9.6%]), and colorectal (n = 28 [7.3%]). The outcome was fatal for 33.9% of cancer reports. Lymphoma comprised 72.1% of all hematological cancers (mean patient age, 52.1 years; SD, 11.6 years). The median daily dose of clozapine at the time of hematological cancer report was 400 mg (interquartile range, 300-543.8 mg), and the median duration of clozapine use before hematological cancer diagnosis was 7.0 years (interquartile range, 2.8-13.2 years). CONCLUSIONS: Lymphoma and other hematological cancers are overrepresented in spontaneous adverse event reports compared with other cancer types. Clinicians should be aware of the possible association with hematological cancers and monitor for and report any hematological cancers identified. Future studies should examine histology of lymphomas in people using clozapine and corresponding blood level of clozapine.

COVID-19 restrictions and the incidence and prevalence of prescription opioid use in Australia - a nationwide study.

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted seeking and delivery of healthcare. Different Australian jurisdictions implemented different COVID-19 restrictions. We used Australian national pharmacy dispensing data to conduct interrupted time series analyses to examine the incidence and prevalence of opioid dispensing in different jurisdictions. Following nationwide COVID-19 restrictions, the incidence dropped by -0.40 (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.50, -0.31), -0.33 (95% CI: -0.46, -0.21) and -0.21 (95% CI: -0.37, -0.04) per 1000 people per week and the prevalence dropped by -0.85 (95% CI: -1.39, -0.31), -0.54 (95% CI: -1.01, -0.07) and -0.62 (95% CI: -0.99, -0.25) per 1000 people per week in Victoria, New South Wales and other jurisdictions, respectively. Incidence and prevalence increased by 0.29 (95% CI: 0.13, 0.44) and 0.72 (95% CI: 0.11, 1.33) per 1000 people per week, respectively in Victoria post-lockdown; no significant changes were observed in other jurisdictions. No significant changes were observed in the initiation of long-term opioid use in any jurisdictions. More stringent restrictions coincided with more pronounced reductions in overall opioid initiation, but initiation of long-term opioid use did not change.

Preferences for deprescribing antihypertensive medications amongst clinicians, carers and people living with dementia: a discrete choice experiment.

BACKGROUND: Optimal management of hypertension in people with dementia may involve deprescribing antihypertensives. Understanding differing treatment priorities is important to enable patient-centred care. This study explored preferences for antihypertensive deprescribing amongst people living with dementia, carers and clinicians. METHODS: Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) are a stated preference survey method, underpinned by economic theory. A DCE was conducted, and respondents completed 12 labelled choice-questions, each presenting a status quo (continuing antihypertensives) and antihypertensive deprescribing option. The questions included six attributes, including pill burden, and event risks for stroke, myocardial infarction, increased blood pressure, cognitive decline, falls. RESULTS: Overall, 112 respondents (33 carers, 19 people living with dementia, and 60 clinicians) completed the survey. For people with dementia, lower pill burden increased preferences for deprescribing (odds ratio (OR) 1.95, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.08-3.52). Increased stroke risk (for each additional person out of 100 having a stroke) decreased the likelihood of deprescribing for geriatricians (OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.55-0.92) and non-geriatrician clinicians (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.45-0.86), and carers (OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.58-0.88). Increased myocardial infarction risk decreased preferences for deprescribing for non-geriatricians (OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.69-0.95) and carers (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.73-0.98). Avoiding cognitive decline increased preferences for deprescribing for geriatricians (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.03-1.33) and carers (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.09-1.48). Avoiding falls increased preferences for deprescribing for clinicians (geriatricians (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.11-1.29); non-geriatricians (OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.07-1.25)). Other attributes did not significantly influence respondent preferences. CONCLUSIONS: Antihypertensive deprescribing preferences differ amongst people with dementia, carers and clinicians. The study emphasises the importance of shared decision-making within the deprescribing process.

Trends of polypharmacy among older people in Asia, Australia and the United Kingdom: a multinational population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Polypharmacy among older people represents a global challenge due to its association with adverse drug events. The reported prevalence of polypharmacy varies widely across countries, and is particularly high in Asian countries. However, there is no multinational study using standardised measurements exploring variations in prescribing trends. OBJECTIVE: To compare polypharmacy trends in older people in Asia, Australia and the United Kingdom. DESIGN: Multinational, retrospective, time-trend, observational study using a common study protocol. SETTING: Outpatient and community settings. SUBJECTS: All individuals aged ≥ 65 years between 2013 and 2016. METHODS: We defined polypharmacy as the concomitant use of ≥5 medications for ≥45 days per year. We estimated the annual prevalence of polypharmacy and calculated average annual percentage change (AAPC) to assess the time trends. RESULTS: A total of 1.62 million individuals were included in this study. The highest prevalence of polypharmacy was observed in Hong Kong (46.4%), followed by Taiwan (38.8%), South Korea (32.0%), the United Kingdom (23.5%) and Australia (20.1%) in 2016. For the time trend, the Asian region showed a steady increase, particularly in Hong Kong and South Korea (AAPC: Hong Kong, 2.7%; South Korea, 1.8%; Taiwan, 1.0%). However, Australia and the United Kingdom showed a decreasing trend (Australia, -4.9%; the United Kingdom, -1.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Polypharmacy prevalence in older people was higher in Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea, with an increasing trend over time, compared with Australia and the United Kingdom. Our findings underline the necessity to monitor polypharmacy among older people in Asia by conducting government-level interventions and introducing medicine-optimisation strategies.

Multi-domain prognostic models used in middle-aged adults without known cognitive impairment for predicting subsequent dementia.

BACKGROUND: Dementia, a global health priority, has no current cure. Around 50 million people worldwide currently live with dementia, and this number is expected to treble by 2050. Some health conditions and lifestyle behaviours can increase or decrease the risk of dementia and are known as 'predictors'. Prognostic models combine such predictors to measure the risk of future dementia. Models that can accurately predict future dementia would help clinicians select high-risk adults in middle age and implement targeted risk reduction. OBJECTIVES: Our primary objective was to identify multi-domain prognostic models used in middle-aged adults (aged 45 to 65 years) for predicting dementia or cognitive impairment. Eligible multi-domain prognostic models involved two or more of the modifiable dementia predictors identified in a 2020 Lancet Commission report and a 2019 World Health Organization (WHO) report (less education, hearing loss, traumatic brain injury, hypertension, excessive alcohol intake, obesity, smoking, depression, social isolation, physical inactivity, diabetes mellitus, air pollution, poor diet, and cognitive inactivity). Our secondary objectives were to summarise the prognostic models, to appraise their predictive accuracy (discrimination and calibration) as reported in the development and validation studies, and to identify the implications of using dementia prognostic models for the management of people at a higher risk for future dementia. SEARCH METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, and ISI Web of Science Core Collection from inception until 6 June 2022. We performed forwards and backwards citation tracking of included studies using the Web of Science platform.  SELECTION CRITERIA: We included development and validation studies of multi-domain prognostic models. The minimum eligible follow-up was five years. Our primary outcome was an incident clinical diagnosis of dementia based on validated diagnostic criteria, and our secondary outcome was dementia or cognitive impairment determined by any other method. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently screened the references, extracted data using a template based on the CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS), and assessed risk of bias and applicability of included studies using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). We synthesised the C-statistics of models that had been externally validated in at least three comparable studies.  MAIN RESULTS: We identified 20 eligible studies; eight were development studies and 12 were validation studies. There were 14 unique prognostic models: seven models with validation studies and seven models with development-only studies. The models included a median of nine predictors (range 6 to 34); the median number of modifiable predictors was five (range 2 to 11). The most common modifiable predictors in externally validated models were diabetes, hypertension, smoking, physical activity, and obesity. In development-only models, the most common modifiable predictors were obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and smoking. No models included hearing loss or air pollution as predictors. Nineteen studies had a high risk of bias according to the PROBAST assessment, mainly because of inappropriate analysis methods, particularly lack of reported calibration measures. Applicability concerns were low for 12 studies, as their population, predictors, and outcomes were consistent with those of interest for this review. Applicability concerns were high for nine studies, as they lacked baseline cognitive screening or excluded an age group within the range of 45 to 65 years. Only one model, Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Ageing, and Dementia (CAIDE), had been externally validated in multiple studies, allowing for meta-analysis. The CAIDE model included eight predictors (four modifiable predictors): age, education, sex, systolic blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), total cholesterol, physical activity and APOEƐ4 status. Overall, our confidence in the prediction accuracy of CAIDE was very low; our main reasons for downgrading the certainty of the evidence were high risk of bias across all the studies, high concern of applicability, non-overlapping confidence intervals (CIs), and a high degree of heterogeneity. The summary C-statistic was 0.71 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.76; 3 studies; very low-certainty evidence) for the incident clinical diagnosis of dementia, and 0.67 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.73; 3 studies; very low-certainty evidence) for dementia or cognitive impairment based on cognitive scores. Meta-analysis of calibration measures was not possible, as few studies provided these data. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: We identified 14 unique multi-domain prognostic models used in middle-aged adults for predicting subsequent dementia. Diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and smoking were the most common modifiable risk factors used as predictors in the models. We performed meta-analyses of C-statistics for one model (CAIDE), but the summary values were unreliable. Owing to lack of data, we were unable to meta-analyse the calibration measures of CAIDE. This review highlights the need for further robust external validations of multi-domain prognostic models for predicting future risk of dementia in middle-aged adults.

Symptomatic and preventive medication use according to age and frailty in Australian and Japanese nursing homes.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate symptomatic and preventive medication use according to age and frailty in Australian and Japanese nursing homes (NHs). METHODS: Secondary cross-sectional analyses of two prospective cohort studies involving 12 Australian NHs and four Japanese NHs. Frailty was measured using the FRAIL-NH scale (non-frail 0-2; frail 3-6; most-frail 7-14). Regular medications were classified as symptomatic or preventive based on published lists and expert consensus. Descriptive statistics were used to compare the prevalence and ratio of symptomatic to preventive medications. RESULTS: Overall, 550 Australian residents (87.7 ± 7.3 years; 73.3% females) and 333 Japanese residents (86.5 ± 7.0 years; 73.3% females) were included. Australian residents used a higher mean number of medications than Japanese residents (9.8 ± 4.0 vs 7.7 ± 3.7, p < 0.0001). Australian residents used more preventive than symptomatic medications (5.5 ± 2.5 vs 4.3 ± 2.6, p < 0.0001), while Japanese residents used more symptomatic than preventive medications (4.7 ± 2.6 vs 3.0 ± 2.2, p < 0.0001). In Australia, symptomatic medications were more prevalent with increasing frailty (non-frail 3.4 ± 2.6; frail 4.0 ± 2.6; most-frail 4.8 ± 2.6, p < 0.0001) but less prevalent with age (< 80 years 5.0 ± 2.9; 80-89 years 4.4 ± 2.6; ≥ 90 years 3.9 ± 2.5, p = 0.0042); while preventive medications remained similar across age and frailty groups. In Japan, there was no significant difference in the mean number of symptomatic and preventive medications irrespective of age and frailty. CONCLUSIONS: The ratio of symptomatic to preventive medications was higher with increasing frailty but lower with age in Australia; whereas in Japan, the ratio remained consistent across age and frailty groups. Preventive medications remained prevalent in most-frail residents in both cohorts, albeit at lower levels in Japan.

Temporal and age-specific trends in incidence and 1-year case-fatality of hospitalized ischaemic stroke in Victoria, Australia.

OBJECTIVES: Investigate temporal and age-specific trends in the incidence of ischaemic stroke and case-fatality risk in Victoria, Australia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients hospitalised with first ischaemic stroke between 2012 and 2018 were included. Trends in age-standardised incidence rates of ischaemic stroke were assessed using linear regression models. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to examine the case-fatality risk. RESULTS: Overall age-standardised incidence of ischaemic stroke was stable from 2012/13 to 2017/18 (87.6 to 84.8 events per 100,000 population; Annual percentage change [APC] -0.32; 95% Confidence interval [CI] -1.13 to 0.50). The incidence declined in females (APC -1.00; 95% CI -1.49 to -0.50), people aged 75-84 years (APC -1.60; 95% CI -2.83 to -0.36) and in metropolitan areas (APC -0.74; 95% CI -1.02 to -0.45). The risk of 1-year case-fatality (HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.78 to 0.93) significantly declined in 2016/17 compared to 2012/13. CONCLUSIONS: Overall ischaemic stroke incidence remained stable while decreasing trends were observed in females, elderly and metropolitan areas. 1-year case-fatality declined from 2012 to 2017.

Validity of three risk prediction models for dementia or cognitive impairment in Australia.

BACKGROUND: no studies have compared the predictive validity of different dementia risk prediction models in Australia. OBJECTIVES: (i) to investigate the predictive validity of the Australian National University-Alzheimer's Disease Risk Index (ANU-ADRI), LIfestyle for BRAin Health (LIBRA) Index and cardiovascular risk factors, ageing and dementia study (CAIDE) models for predicting probable dementia/cognitive impairment in an Australian cohort. (ii) To develop and assess the predictive validity of a new hybrid model combining variables from the three models. METHODS: the Hunter Community Study (HCS) included 3,306 adults aged 55-85 years with a median follow-up of 7.1 years. Probable dementia/cognitive impairment was defined using Admitted Patient Data Collection, dispensing of cholinesterase inhibitors or memantine, or a cognitive test. Model validity was assessed by calibration and discrimination. A hybrid model was developed using deep neural network analysis, a machine learning method. RESULTS: 120 (3.6%) participants developed probable dementia/cognitive impairment. Mean calibration by ANU-ADRI, LIBRA, CAIDE and the hybrid model was 19, 0.5, 4.7 and 3.4%, respectively. The discrimination of the models was 0.65 (95% CI 0.60-0.70), 0.65 (95% CI 0.60-0.71), 0.54 (95% CI 0.49-0.58) and 0.80 (95% CI 0.78-0.83), respectively. CONCLUSION: ANU-ADRI and LIBRA were better dementia prediction tools than CAIDE for identification of high-risk individuals in this cohort. ANU-ADRI overestimated and LIBRA underestimated the risk. The new hybrid model had a higher predictive performance than the other models but it needs to be validated independently in longitudinal studies.

Australian recommendations on tapering of biologic and targeted synthetic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs in inflammatory arthritis.

Biological and targeted synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (b/tsDMARD) have been an important advance in the management of inflammatory arthritis, but are expensive medications, carry a risk of infection and other adverse effects, and are often perceived as a burden by patients. We used GRADE methodology to develop recommendations for dose reduction and discontinuation of b/tsDMARD in people with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), axial spondyloarthritis (AxSpA) and psoriatic arthritis (PsA) who have achieved a low disease activity state or remission. The recommendations form part of the Australian Living Guideline for the Pharmacological Management of Inflammatory Arthritis, an NHMRC-endorsed 'living' guideline, in which recommendations are updated in near real-time as new evidence emerges. Conditional recommendations were made in favour of dose reduction in RA and AxSpA but not in PsA. Abrupt discontinuation of b/tsDMARD is not recommended in any of the three diseases.

Treatment initiation for parkinson's disease in Australia 2013-2018: a nation-wide study.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines highlight the importance of an individualized approach to treatment initiation for Parkinson's disease. Our aim was to investigate initiation of anti-Parkinson medication in Australia from 2013-2018, and to determine factors predicting choice of initial treatment. METHODS: Cohort of new-users (N = 4,887) of anti-Parkinson medication aged ≥ 40 years were identified from a 10% random representative sample of national medication dispensing data from July-2013 to June-2018. Changes in treatment initiation were examined across the whole cohort and stratified by age and sex. RESULTS: Treatment initiation was most frequent with levodopa followed by non-ergot dopamine agonists (DAs) and anticholinergics. Two thirds initiated with levodopa across the study period. Initiation with non-ergot DAs increased from 22 to 27% (rate ratio, RR 1.23, 95% confidence interval, CI 1.02-1.47) and initiation with anticholinergics decreased from 6.9% to 2.4% (RR 0.34, 95% CI 0.21-0.55) from 2013-2018. Among persons aged ≥ 65 years, one third of women and one fourth of men initiated on levodopa. Among women aged < 65 years, rates of treatment initiation with DAs (37%) and levodopa (37%) were similar in 2013/2014 but initiation with DA exceeded levodopa thereafter. Among men aged < 65 years, treatment initiation with levodopa (44%-49%) remained more frequent than initiation with DAs (29%-32%) throughout the study period. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment initiation with levodopa was most frequent among persons aged ≥ 65 years, consistent with current guidelines. Whilst the value of levodopa sparing strategies is unclear, treatment initiation with DA has become increasingly common relative to levodopa among women but not among men aged < 65 years.

Fatal poisonings involving clozapine: A 16-year review of Australian coronial investigations.

OBJECTIVE: Concerns about intentional and unintentional poisoning present a barrier to wider use of clozapine in treatment-resistant schizophrenia. The objective of this study was to investigate decedent demographics and trends in fatal poisonings in Australia involving clozapine. METHODS: This was a retrospective case series of all fatal drug toxicity reported to an Australian coroner between 1 May 2000 and 31 December 2016 where toxicological analysis detected clozapine. Cases were identified using the National Coronial Information System. Demographics extracted included age and gender of the decedent, year and location of death, cause and manner of death and drugs detected in post-mortem samples. RESULTS: There were 278 poisoning deaths where clozapine was detected in toxicological analyses. Three-quarters of all cases (n = 207) involved men and the median age at death was 38.5 years (interquartile range: 16 years). Three-quarters of the deaths occurred in the home. Overall, 15.8% of deaths were deemed intentional, 57.5% unintentional and 24.5% of unknown intent. While the annual number of intentional self-poisonings remained constant with <5 per year, the overall number of fatalities increased due to an increase in unintentional poisonings. Multiple drug toxicity was reported in 55.0% of cases and clozapine alone in 45.0% of cases. The most common co-reported medications were antidepressants, benzodiazepines and opioids detected in 47.1%, 44.4% and 41.2% of multiple drug toxicities, respectively. CONCLUSION: This was the first Australia-wide review of all fatal drug poisonings reported to a coroner involving clozapine. Fatalities were most common in men and occurred at home. Multiple drug toxicity generally involved psychotropic, sedative or opioid analgesic medications. Despite increasing clozapine use, rates of intentional poisoning have remained constant and low. Developing a better knowledge of unintentional fatalities presents an opportunity to minimise harm.

Impact of the Goal-directed Medication Review Electronic Decision Support System on Drug Burden Index: A cluster-randomised clinical trial in primary care.

AIMS: The Goal-directed Medication Review Electronic Decision Support System (G-MEDSS) assesses and reports a patient's goals, attitudes to deprescribing and Drug Burden Index (DBI) score, a measure of cumulative exposure to anticholinergic and sedative medications. This study evaluated the effect of implementing G-MEDSS in home medicines reviews (HMRs) on DBI exposure and clinical outcomes. METHODS: A cluster-randomised clinical trial was performed across Australia. Accredited clinical pharmacists were randomised into intervention (G-MEDSS with usual care HMR) or comparison groups (usual care HMR alone). Patients were recruited by pharmacists from those routinely referred by general practitioners for HMR. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with any reduction in DBI at 3-months follow-up. Secondary outcomes included change in DBI continuous score at 3-months, HMR recommendations to change DBI and clinical outcomes. RESULTS: There were 201 patient participants at baseline (n = 88 intervention, n = 113 comparison), with 159 followed-up at 3-months (n = 63 intervention, n = 96 comparison). The proportion of patients with a reduction in DBI was not significantly different at 3-months (intervention 17%, comparison 11%; adjusted odds ratio 1.44, 95% confidence interval 0.56-3.80). Regarding secondary outcomes, there was no difference in change in DBI score at 3-months. However, the HMR report made recommendations to reduce DBI for a significantly greater proportion of patients in the intervention than in the comparison group (intervention 37%, comparison 14%; adjusted odds ratio 3.20, 95% confidence interval 1.50-6.90). No changes were observed in clinical outcomes. CONCLUSION: Implementation of G-MEDSS within HMR did not reduce patients' DBI at 3 months compared with usual care HMR.

The Frailty In Residential Sector over Time (FIRST) study: methods and baseline cohort description.

BACKGROUND: The Frailty In Residential Sector over Time (FIRST) Study is a 3-year prospective cohort study investigating the health of residents living in residential aged care services (RACS) in South Australia. The study aims to examine the change in frailty status and associated health outcomes. METHODS: This interim report presents data from March 2019-October 2020. The study setting is 12 RACS from one organisation across metropolitan and rural South Australia involving 1243 residents. All permanent (i.e. respite or transition care program excluded) residents living in the RACS for at least 8 weeks were invited to participate. Residents who were deemed to be medically unstable (e.g. experiencing delirium), have less than 3 months to live, or not fluent in English were excluded. Data collected included frailty status, medical diagnoses, medicines, pain, nutrition, sarcopenia, falls, dementia, anxiety and depression, sleep quality, quality of life, satisfaction with care, activities of daily living, and life space use at baseline and 12-months. Data Linkage will occur over the 3 years from baseline. RESULTS: A total of 561 permanent residents (mean age 87.69 ± 7.25) were included. The majority of residents were female (n = 411, 73.3%) with 95.3% (n = 527) being classified as either frail (n = 377, 68.2%) or most-frail (n = 150, 27.1%) according to the Frailty Index (FI). Most residents were severely impaired in their basic activities of daily living (n = 554, 98.8%), and were at-risk of malnutrition (n = 305, 55.0%) and at-risk of sarcopenia (n = 492, 89.5%). Most residents did not experience pain (n = 475, 85.4%), had normal daytime sleepiness (n = 385, 69.7%), and low anxiety and depression scores (n = 327, 58.9%). CONCLUSION: This study provides valuable information on the health and frailty levels of residents living in RACS in South Australia. The results will assist in developing interventions that can help to improve the health and wellbeing of residents in aged care services. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Prospectively registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ( ACTRN12619000500156 ).

Changes in the use of diabetes drugs among community-dwelling people with Alzheimer's disease.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes is common in persons with Alzheimer's disease (AD). Management of diabetes in persons with AD is challenging due to changing goals of care and susceptibility to adverse drug events including hypoglycemia. The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of diabetes drug use from 5 years before to 5 years after the time of AD diagnosis among persons with and without AD. METHODS: This was a nationwide register-based study of persons with and without AD and diabetes in Finland. We analyzed data from the Medication Use and Alzheimer's disease (MEDALZ) study that included 70,718 community-dwelling people diagnosed with AD from 2005 to 2011. The study population included 8418 persons with AD and 6666 matched persons without AD who were diagnosed with diabetes 5 years before AD diagnosis (index date). We defined the prevalence of diabetes drug use in three-month evaluation periods from 5 years before until 5 years after the index date. RESULTS: Nearly all people with diabetes (94% in both cohorts) used one or more diabetes drugs on the index date. The most prevalent drug metformin was used by 60.9% of people with AD and 59.1% of people without AD. The next most prevalent drugs were sulfonylureas and insulin. The prevalence of diabetes drug use was similar in people with and without AD but began to decline 1 year after AD diagnosis in the AD cohort compared to non-AD cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The decline in diabetes drug use after AD diagnosis may be attributed to clinicians and patients seeking to avoid serious adverse drug events including hypoglycemia. In addition, the findings may reflect personalized glycemic control and unintentional weight loss in persons with AD reducing the need for diabetes drugs.