Liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: evaluation of the alpha-fetoprotein model in a multicenter cohort from Latin America.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The French alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) model has recently shown superior results compared to Milan criteria (MC) for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver transplantation (LT) in European populations. The aim of this study was to explore the predictive capacity of the AFP model for HCC recurrence in a Latin-American cohort. METHODS: Three hundred twenty-seven patients with HCC were included from a total of 2018 patients transplanted at 15 centres. Serum AFP and imaging data were both recorded at listing. Predictability was assessed by the Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) method. RESULTS: Overall, 82 and 79% of the patients were within MC and the AFP model respectively. NRI showed a superior predictability of the AFP model against MC. Patients with an AFP score >2 points had higher risk of recurrence at 5 years Hazard Ratio (HR) of 3.15 (P = 0.0001) and lower patient survival (HR = 1.51; P = 0.03). Among patients exceeding MC, a score ≤2 points identified a subgroup of patients with lower recurrence (5% vs 42%; P = 0.013) and higher survival rates (84% vs 45%; P = 0.038). In cases treated with bridging procedures, following restaging, a score >2 points identified a higher recurrence (HR 2.2, P = 0.12) and lower survival rate (HR 2.25, P = 0.03). A comparative analysis between HBV and non-HBV patients showed that the AFP model performed better in non-HBV patients. CONCLUSIONS: The AFP model could be useful in Latin-American countries to better select patients for LT in subgroups presenting with extended criteria. However, particular attention should be focused on patients with HBV.

A changing etiologic scenario in liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma in a multicenter cohort study from Latin America.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an increasing cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and liver transplantation (LT). Our study focused on changing trends of liver related HCC etiologies during the last years in Latin America. METHODS: From a cohort of 2761 consecutive adult LT patients between 2005 and 2012 in 17 different centers, 435 with HCC were included. Different periods including years 2005-2006, 2007-2008, 2009-2010 and 2011-2012 were considered. Etiology of liver disease was confirmed in the explant. RESULTS: Participating LT centers per country included 2 from Brazil (n=191), 5 transplant programs from Argentina (n=98), 2 from Colombia (n=65), 4 from Chile (n=49), 2 from Mexico (n=12), and 1 from Peru (n=11) and Uruguay (n=9). Chronic hepatitis C infection was the leading cause of HCC in the overall cohort (37%), followed by HBV (25%) and alcoholic liver disease (17%). NAFLD and cryptogenic cirrhosis accounted for 6% and 7%, respectively. While HCV decreased from 48% in 2005-06 to 26% in 2011-12, NAFLD increased from 1.8% to 12.8% during the same period, accounting for the third cause of HCC. This represented a 6-fold increase in NAFLD-HCC, whereas HCV had a 2-fold decrease. Patients with NAFLD were older, had lower pre-LT serum AFP values and similar 5-year survival and recurrence rates than non-NAFLD. CONCLUSION: There might be a global changing figure regarding etiologies of HCC in Latin America. This epidemiological change on the incidence of HCC in the world, although it has been reported, should still be confirmed in prospective studies.