The prognostic significance of single-lead ST-segment resolution in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients treated with primary PCI - A substudy of the randomized TOTAL trial.

BACKGROUND: ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is associated with high morbidity and mortality worldwide. Simple electrocardiogram (ECG) tools, including ST-segment resolution (STR) have been developed to identify high-risk STEMI patients after primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). SUBJECTS AND METHODS: We evaluated the prognostic impact of STR in the ECG lead with maximal baseline ST-segment elevation (STE) 30-60 minutes after primary PCI in 7,654 STEMI patients included in the TOTAL trial. Incomplete or no STR was defined as < 70% STR and complete STR as ≥ 70% STR. The primary outcome was the composite of cardiovascular death, recurrent myocardial infarction (MI), cardiogenic shock, or new or worsening New York Heart Association (NYHA) class IV heart failure at 1-year follow-up. RESULTS: Of 7,654 patients, 42.9% had incomplete or no STR and 57.1% had complete STR. The primary outcome occurred in 341 patients (10.4%) in the incomplete or no STR group and in 234 patients (5.4%) in the complete STR group. In Cox regression analysis, adjusted hazard ratio for STR < 70% to predict the primary outcome was 1.56 (95% confidence interval 1.32-1.89; P < .001) (model adjusted for all baseline comorbidities, clinical status during hospitalization, angiographic findings, and procedural techniques). CONCLUSION: In a large international study of STEMI patients, STR < 70% 30-60 minutes post primary PCI in the ECG lead with the greatest STE at admission was associated with an increased rate of the composite of cardiovascular death, recurrent MI, cardiogenic shock, or new or worsening NYHA class IV heart failure at 1-year follow-up. Clinicians should pay attention to this simple ECG finding.

Effects of complete revascularization according to age in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction and multivessel disease (COMPLETE-AGE).

BACKGROUND: In ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), complete revascularization with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) reduces major cardiovascular events compared with culprit-lesion-only PCI. Whether age influences these results remains unknown. METHODS: COMPLETE was a multinational, randomized trial evaluating a strategy of staged complete revascularization, consisting of angiography-guided PCI of all suitable nonculprit lesions, versus a strategy of culprit-lesion-only PCI. In this prespecified subgroup analysis, treatment effect according to age (≥65 years vs <65 years) was determined for the first coprimary outcome of cardiovascular (CV) death or new myocardial infarction (MI) and the second coprimary outcome of CV death, new MI, or ischemia-driven revascularization (IDR). Median follow-up was 35.8 months (interquartile range [IQR]: 27.6-44.3 months). RESULTS: Of 4,041 patients randomized in COMPLETE, 1,613 were aged ≥ 65 years (39.9%). Higher event rates were observed for both coprimary outcomes in patients aged ≥ 65 years comparted with those aged < 65 years (11.2% vs 7.9%, HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.22-1.83; 14.4% vs 11.8%, HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.07-1.52, respectively). Complete revascularization reduced the first coprimary outcome in patients ≥ 65 years (9.7% vs 12.5%, HR 0.77; 95% CI, 0.58-1.04) and < 65 years (6.7% vs 9.1%, HR 0.72; 95% CI, 0.54-0.96)(interaction P = .74). The second coprimary outcome was reduced in those ≥ 65 years (HR 0.56, 95% CI, 0.43-0.74) and < 65 years (HR 0.48, 95% CI, 0.37-0.61 (interaction P = .37). A sensitivity analysis was performed with consistent results demonstrated using a 75-year threshold (albeit attenuated). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with STEMI and multivessel CAD, complete revascularization compared with culprit-lesion-only PCI reduced major cardiovascular events regardless of patient age and could be considered as a revascularization strategy in older adults.

Design and Rationale of the CLEAR SYNERGY (OASIS 9) Trial: A 2x2 Factorial Randomized Controlled Trial of Colchicine versus placebo and Spironolactone versus placebo in Patients with Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: Patients experiencing myocardial infarction (MI) remain at high risk of future major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). While low-dose colchicine and spironolactone have been shown to decrease post-MI MACE, more data are required to confirm their safety and efficacy in an unselected post-MI population. Therefore, we initiated the CLEAR SYNERGY (OASIS 9) trial to address these uncertainties. METHODS: The CLEAR SYNERGY trial is a 2 × 2 factorial randomized controlled trial of low-dose colchicine 0.5 mg daily versus placebo and spironolactone 25 mg daily versus placebo in 7,062 post-MI participants who were within 72 hours of the index percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We blinded participants, healthcare providers, research personnel, and outcome adjudicators to treatment allocation. The primary outcome for colchicine is the first occurrence of the composite of cardiovascular death, recurrent MI, stroke, or unplanned ischemia-driven revascularization. The co-primary outcomes for spironolactone are (1) the composite of the total numbers of cardiovascular death or new or worsening heart failure and (2) the first occurrence of the composite of cardiovascular death, new or worsening heart failure, recurrent MI or stroke. We finished recruitment with 7,062 participants from 104 centers in 14 countries on November 8, 2022, and plan to present the results in the fall of 2024. CONCLUSIONS: CLEAR SYNERGY is a large international randomized controlled trial that will inform the effects of low-dose colchicine and spironolactone in largely unselected post-MI patients who undergo PCI. (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03048825).

The prognostic significance of Q waves and T wave inversions in the ECG of patients with STEMI: A substudy of the TOTAL trial.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic significance of Q waves and T-wave inversions (TWI) combined and separately in STEMI patients undergoing primary PCI has not been well established in previous studies. METHODS: We included 7,831 patients from the TOTAL trial and divided the patients into categories based on Q waves and TWIs in the presenting ECG. The primary outcome was a composite of cardiovascular death, recurrent myocardial infarction (MI), cardiogenic shock or new or worsening NYHA class IV heart failure within one year. The study evaluated the effect of Q waves and TWI on the risk of primary outcome and all-cause death, and whether patient benefit of aspiration thrombectomy differed between the ECG categories. RESULTS: Patients with Q+TWI+ (Q wave and TWI) pattern had higher risk of primary outcome compared to patients with Q-TWI- pattern [33 (10.5%) vs. 221 (4.2%); adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 2.10; 95% CI, 1.45-3.04; p<0.001] within 40-days' period. When analyzed separately, patients with Q waves had a higher risk for the primary outcome compared to patients with no Q waves in the first 40 days [aHR 1.80; 95% CI, 1.48-2.19; p<0.001] but there was no additive risk after 40 days. Patients with TWI had a higher risk for primary outcome only after 40 days when compared to patients with no TWI [aHR 1.63; 95% CI, 1.04-2.55; p=0.033]. There was a trend towards a benefit of thrombectomy in patients with the Q+TWI+ pattern. CONCLUSIONS: Q waves and TWI combined (Q+TWI+ pattern) in the presenting ECG is associated with unfavourable outcome within 40-days. Q waves tend to affect short-term outcome, while TWI has more effect on long-term outcome.

Complete Revascularization with Multivessel PCI for Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: In patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) of the culprit lesion reduces the risk of cardiovascular death or myocardial infarction. Whether PCI of nonculprit lesions further reduces the risk of such events is unclear. METHODS: We randomly assigned patients with STEMI and multivessel coronary artery disease who had undergone successful culprit-lesion PCI to a strategy of either complete revascularization with PCI of angiographically significant nonculprit lesions or no further revascularization. Randomization was stratified according to the intended timing of nonculprit-lesion PCI (either during or after the index hospitalization). The first coprimary outcome was the composite of cardiovascular death or myocardial infarction; the second coprimary outcome was the composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or ischemia-driven revascularization. RESULTS: At a median follow-up of 3 years, the first coprimary outcome had occurred in 158 of the 2016 patients (7.8%) in the complete-revascularization group as compared with 213 of the 2025 patients (10.5%) in the culprit-lesion-only PCI group (hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.60 to 0.91; P = 0.004). The second coprimary outcome had occurred in 179 patients (8.9%) in the complete-revascularization group as compared with 339 patients (16.7%) in the culprit-lesion-only PCI group (hazard ratio, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.43 to 0.61; P<0.001). For both coprimary outcomes, the benefit of complete revascularization was consistently observed regardless of the intended timing of nonculprit-lesion PCI (P = 0.62 and P = 0.27 for interaction for the first and second coprimary outcomes, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with STEMI and multivessel coronary artery disease, complete revascularization was superior to culprit-lesion-only PCI in reducing the risk of cardiovascular death or myocardial infarction, as well as the risk of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or ischemia-driven revascularization. (Funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and others; COMPLETE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01740479.).

Quality of life among women with symptomatic, screen-detected, and interval breast cancer, and for women without breast cancer: a retrospective cross-sectional study from Norway.

PURPOSE: Breast cancers detected at screening need less aggressive treatment compared to breast cancers detected due to symptoms. The evidence on the quality of life associated with screen-detected versus symptomatic breast cancer is sparse. This study aimed to compare quality of life among Norwegian women with symptomatic, screen-detected and interval breast cancer, and women without breast cancer and investigate quality adjusted life years (QALYs) for women with breast cancer from the third to 14th year since diagnosis. METHODS: This retrospective cross-sectional study was focused on women aged 50 and older. A self-reported questionnaire including EQ-5D-5L was sent to 11,500 women. Multivariable median regression was used to analyze the association between quality of life score (visual analogue scale 0-100) and detection mode. Health utility values representing women's health status were extracted from EQ-5D-5L. QALYs were estimated by summing up the health utility values for women stratified by detection mode for each year between the third and the 14th year since breast cancer diagnosis, assuming that all women would survive. RESULTS: Adjusted regression analyses showed that women with screen-detected (n = 1206), interval cancer (n = 1005) and those without breast cancer (n = 1255) reported a higher median quality of life score using women with symptomatic cancer (n = 1021) as reference; 3.7 (95%CI 2.2-5.2), 2.3 (95%CI 0.7-3.8) and 4.8 (95%CI 3.3-6.4), respectively. Women with symptomatic, screen-detected and interval cancer would experience 9.5, 9.6 and 9.5 QALYs, respectively, between the third and the 14th year since diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Women with screen-detected or interval breast cancer reported better quality of life compared to women with symptomatic cancer. The findings add benefits of organized mammographic screening.

The prognostic significance of grade of ischemia in the ECG in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction: A substudy of the randomized trial of primary PCI with or without routine manual thrombectomy (TOTAL trial).

BACKGROUND: The importance of the grade of ischemia (GI) ECG classification in the risk assessment of patients with STEMI has been shown previously. Grade 3 ischemia (G3I) is defined as ST-elevation with distortion of the terminal portion of the QRS complex in two or more adjacent leads, while Grade 2 ischemia (G2I) is defined as ST-elevation without QRS distortion. Our aim was to evaluate the prognostic impact of the GI classification on the outcome in patients with STEMI. METHODS: 7,211 patients from the TOTAL trial were included in our study. The primary outcome was a composite of cardiovascular death, recurrent myocardial infarction (MI), cardiogenic shock, or New York Heart Association (NYHA) class IV heart failure within one year. RESULTS: The primary outcome occurred in 153 of 1,563 patients (9.8%) in the G3I group vs. 364 of 5,648 patients (6.4%) in the G2I group (adjusted HR 1.27; 95% CI, 1.04 - 1.55; p=0.022). The rate of cardiovascular death (4.8% vs. 2.5%; adjusted HR 1.48; 95% CI 1.09 - 2.00; p=0.013) was also higher in patients with G3I. CONCLUSIONS: G3I in the presenting ECG was associated with an increased rate of the composite of cardiovascular death, recurrent MI, cardiogenic shock, or NYHA class IV heart failure within one year compared to patients with G2I. Patients with G3I also had a higher cardiovascular death compared to patients with G2I.

Design and rationale of the COMPLETE trial: A randomized, comparative effectiveness study of complete versus culprit-only percutaneous coronary intervention to treat multivessel coronary artery disease in patients presenting with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

A significant proportion of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) have multivessel coronary artery disease (CAD). Following successful culprit lesion percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for STEMI, the question of whether to routinely revascularize non-culprit lesions or manage them conservatively with optimal medical therapy (OMT) alone is a common dilemma facing clinicians. METHODS: COMPLETE is a prospective, randomized, international, multicenter, parallel group, open-label trial with blinded evaluation of outcomes. Following successful PCI (contemporary drug eluting stents recommended) of the culprit lesion for STEMI, a total of 4041 patients from 140 centers in 31 countries were randomized to receive either complete revascularization, consisting of staged PCI of all suitable non-culprit lesions plus optimal medical therapy (OMT), or to culprit lesion-only PCI, consisting of OMT alone. OMT comprises evidence-based therapy for STEMI, including and dual antiplatelet therapy with ticagrelor, HTN and lipid management. All coronary angiograms in the trial are being evaluated in a central angiographic core lab to assess quality and completeness of revascularization. The co-primary outcomes are (1): the composite of CV death or new non-fatal MI and (2 the composite of CV death, new non-fatal MI or ischemia-driven revascularization at a median follow-up of 3 years. CONCLUSIONS: The COMPLETE trial is an international multicenter randomized trial that will help determine whether complete revascularization involving staged PCI of non-culprit lesions improves outcomes in patients with STEMI and multivessel CAD. (clinicaltrials.govNCT01740479).

Clinical impact of direct stenting and interaction with thrombus aspiration in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: Thrombectomy Trialists Collaboration.

Aims: Preliminary studies suggest that direct stenting (DS) during percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) may reduce microvascular obstruction and improve clinical outcome. Thrombus aspiration may facilitate DS. We assessed the impact of DS on clinical outcome and myocardial reperfusion and its interaction with thrombus aspiration among ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients undergoing PCI. Methods and results: Patient-level data from the three largest randomized trials on routine manual thrombus aspiration vs. PCI only were merged. A 1:1 propensity matched population was created to compare DS and conventional stenting. Synergy between DS and thrombus aspiration was assessed with interaction P-values in the final models. In the unmatched population (n = 17 329), 32% underwent DS and 68% underwent conventional stenting. Direct stenting rates were higher in patients randomized to thrombus aspiration as compared with PCI only (41% vs. 22%; P < 0.001). Patients undergoing DS required less contrast (162 mL vs. 172 mL; P < 0.001) and had shorter fluoroscopy time (11.1 min vs. 13.3 min; P < 0.001). After propensity matching (n = 10 944), no significant differences were seen between DS and conventional stenting with respect to 30-day cardiovascular death [1.7% vs. 1.9%; hazard ratio 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.55-1.41; P = 0.60; Pinteraction = 0.96) and 30-day stroke or transient ischaemic attack (0.6% vs. 0.4%; odds ratio 1.02; 95% CI 0.14-7.54; P = 0.99; Pinteraction = 0.81). One-year results were similar. No significant differences were seen in electrocardiographic and angiographic myocardial reperfusion measures. Conclusion: Direct stenting rates were higher in patients randomized to thrombus aspiration. Clinical outcomes and myocardial reperfusion measures did not differ significantly between DS and conventional stenting and there was no interaction with thrombus aspiration.

Thrombus Aspiration in ST-Segment-Elevation Myocardial Infarction: An Individual Patient Meta-Analysis: Thrombectomy Trialists Collaboration.

BACKGROUND: Thrombus aspiration during percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for the treatment of ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) has been widely used; however, recent trials have questioned its value and safety. In this meta-analysis, we, the trial investigators, aimed to pool the individual patient data from these trials to determine the benefits and risks of thrombus aspiration during PCI in patients with ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. METHODS: Included were large (n≥1000), randomized, controlled trials comparing manual thrombectomy and PCI alone in patients with ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. Individual patient data were provided by the leadership of each trial. The prespecified primary efficacy outcome was cardiovascular mortality within 30 days, and the primary safety outcome was stroke or transient ischemic attack within 30 days. RESULTS: The 3 eligible randomized trials (TAPAS [Thrombus Aspiration During Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in Acute Myocardial Infarction], TASTE [Thrombus Aspiration in ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction in Scandinavia], and TOTAL [Trial of Routine Aspiration Thrombectomy With PCI Versus PCI Alone in Patients With STEMI]) enrolled 19 047 patients, of whom 18 306 underwent PCI and were included in the primary analysis. Cardiovascular death at 30 days occurred in 221 of 9155 patients (2.4%) randomized to thrombus aspiration and 262 of 9151 (2.9%) randomized to PCI alone (hazard ratio, 0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.70-1.01; P=0.06). Stroke or transient ischemic attack occurred in 66 (0.8%) randomized to thrombus aspiration and 46 (0.5%) randomized to PCI alone (odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.98-2.10; P=0.06). There were no significant differences in recurrent myocardial infarction, stent thrombosis, heart failure, or target vessel revascularization. In the subgroup with high thrombus burden (TIMI [Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction] thrombus grade ≥3), thrombus aspiration was associated with fewer cardiovascular deaths (170 [2.5%] versus 205 [3.1%]; hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.65-0.98; P=0.03) and with more strokes or transient ischemic attacks (55 [0.9%] versus 34 [0.5%]; odds ratio, 1.56; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-2.42, P=0.04). However, the interaction P values were 0.32 and 0.34, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Routine thrombus aspiration during PCI for ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction did not improve clinical outcomes. In the high thrombus burden group, the trends toward reduced cardiovascular death and increased stroke or transient ischemic attack provide a rationale for future trials of improved thrombus aspiration technologies in this high-risk subgroup. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URLs: http://www.ClinicalTrials.gov http://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/. Unique identifiers: NCT02552407 and CRD42015025936.

Randomized trial of primary PCI with or without routine manual thrombectomy.

BACKGROUND: During primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), manual thrombectomy may reduce distal embolization and thus improve microvascular perfusion. Small trials have suggested that thrombectomy improves surrogate and clinical outcomes, but a larger trial has reported conflicting results. METHODS: We randomly assigned 10,732 patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary PCI to a strategy of routine upfront manual thrombectomy versus PCI alone. The primary outcome was a composite of death from cardiovascular causes, recurrent myocardial infarction, cardiogenic shock, or New York Heart Association (NYHA) class IV heart failure within 180 days. The key safety outcome was stroke within 30 days. RESULTS: The primary outcome occurred in 347 of 5033 patients (6.9%) in the thrombectomy group versus 351 of 5030 patients (7.0%) in the PCI-alone group (hazard ratio in the thrombectomy group, 0.99; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85 to 1.15; P=0.86). The rates of cardiovascular death (3.1% with thrombectomy vs. 3.5% with PCI alone; hazard ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.73 to 1.12; P=0.34) and the primary outcome plus stent thrombosis or target-vessel revascularization (9.9% vs. 9.8%; hazard ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.89 to 1.14; P=0.95) were also similar. Stroke within 30 days occurred in 33 patients (0.7%) in the thrombectomy group versus 16 patients (0.3%) in the PCI-alone group (hazard ratio, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.13 to 3.75; P=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with STEMI who were undergoing primary PCI, routine manual thrombectomy, as compared with PCI alone, did not reduce the risk of cardiovascular death, recurrent myocardial infarction, cardiogenic shock, or NYHA class IV heart failure within 180 days but was associated with an increased rate of stroke within 30 days. (Funded by Medtronic and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research; TOTAL ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01149044.).

Outcomes after thrombus aspiration for ST elevation myocardial infarction: 1-year follow-up of the prospective randomised TOTAL trial.

BACKGROUND: Two large trials have reported contradictory results at 1 year after thrombus aspiration in ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). In a 1-year follow-up of the largest randomised trial of thrombus aspiration, we aimed to clarify the longer-term benefits, to help guide clinical practice. METHODS: The trial of routine aspiration ThrOmbecTomy with PCI versus PCI ALone in Patients with STEMI (TOTAL) was a prospective, randomised, investigator-initiated trial of routine manual thrombectomy versus percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) alone in 10,732 patients with STEMI. Eligible adult patients (aged ≥18 years) from 87 hospitals in 20 countries were enrolled and randomly assigned (1:1) within 12 h of symptom onset to receive routine manual thrombectomy with PCI or PCI alone. Permuted block randomisation (with variable block size) was done by a 24 h computerised central system, and was stratified by centre. Participants and investigators were not masked to treatment assignment. The trial did not show a difference at 180 days in the primary outcome of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, cardiogenic shock, or heart failure. However, the results showed improvements in the surrogate outcomes of ST segment resolution and distal embolisation, but whether or not this finding would translate into a longer term benefit remained unclear. In this longer-term follow-up of the TOTAL study, we report the results on the primary outcome (cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, cardiogenic shock, or heart failure) and secondary outcomes at 1 year. Analyses of the primary outcome were by modified intention to treat and only included patients who underwent index PCI. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01149044. FINDINGS: Between Aug 5, 2010, and July 25, 2014, 10,732 eligible patients were enrolled and randomly assigned to thrombectomy followed by PCI (n=5372) or to PCI alone (n=5360). After exclusions of patients who did not undergo PCI in each group (337 in the PCI and thrombectomy group and 331 in the PCI alone group), the final study population comprised 10,064 patients (5035 thrombectomy and 5029 PCI alone). The primary outcome at 1 year occurred in 395 (8%) of 5035 patients in the thrombectomy group compared with 394 (8%) of 5029 in the PCI alone group (hazard ratio [HR] 1·00 [95% CI 0·87-1·15], p=0·99). Cardiovascular death within 1 year occurred in 179 (4%) of the thrombectomy group and in 192 (4%) of 5029 in the PCI alone group (HR 0·93 [95% CI 0·76-1·14], p=0·48). The key safety outcome, stroke within 1 year, occurred in 60 patients (1·2%) in the thrombectomy group compared with 36 (0·7%) in the PCI alone group (HR 1·66 [95% CI 1·10-2·51], p=0·015). INTERPRETATION: Routine thrombus aspiration during PCI for STEMI did not reduce longer-term clinical outcomes and might be associated with an increase in stroke. As a result, thrombus aspiration can no longer be recommended as a routine strategy in STEMI. FUNDING: Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Canadian Network and Centre for Trials Internationally, and Medtronic Inc.

The prognostic importance of the diastolic pulmonary gradient, transpulmonary gradient, and pulmonary vascular resistance in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the association between markers of precapillary pulmonary hypertension (PH) and survival in transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). BACKGROUND: The importance of precapillary PH has been sparsely investigated in patients undergoing TAVR. It may prove an important risk factor for poor outcomes. METHODS: We identified patients at our institution undergoing TAVR with a baseline right heart catheterization (RHC) demonstrating PH. We evaluated the association between markers of precapillary PH and survival including the diastolic pulmonary gradient (DPG), transpulmonary gradient (TPG), and pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR). A multivariable analysis was performed using Cox Proportional Hazards Models, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index, and pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP) on echocardiography. RESULTS: We identified 133 patients with PH on RHC. Of these 111 had low DPG and 22 had high DPG. All 3 markers of precapillary PH were associated with worse survival post TAVR, with OR of 2.1 (95% CI 1.1-3.9, P = 0.02), 3.4 (95% CI 1.8-6.4, P < 0.001) and 2.5 (95% CI 1.4-4.5, P = 0.003) for high DPG, TPG, and PVR, respectively. On multivariable analysis, both TPG and PVR remained predictors of worse survival, with OR of 3.4 (95% CI 1.7-6.9, P = 0.001) and 2.5 (95% CI 1.4-4.5, P = 0.003). Echocardiographic PASP and DPG were not predictive of survival. CONCLUSIONS: In patients undergoing TAVR, parameters of precapillary PH are associated with lower survival, and provide incremental prognostication over echocardiographic PASP. RHC should continue to play an important role in risk stratification prior to TAVR. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Estimating Health-State Utility Values in Kidney Transplant Recipients and Waiting-List Patients Using the EQ-5D-5L.

OBJECTIVES: To report health-state utility values measured using the five-level EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L) in a large sample of patients with end-stage renal disease and to explore how these values vary in relation to patient characteristics and treatment factors. METHODS: As part of the prospective observational study entitled "Access to Transplantation and Transplant Outcome Measures," we captured information on patient characteristics and treatment factors in a cohort of incident kidney transplant recipients and a cohort of prevalent patients on the transplant waiting list in the United Kingdom. We assessed patients' health status using the EQ-5D-5L and conducted multivariable regression analyses of index scores. RESULTS: EQ-5D-5L responses were available for 512 transplant recipients and 1704 waiting-list patients. Mean index scores were higher in transplant recipients at 6 months after transplant surgery (0.83) compared with patients on the waiting list (0.77). In combined regression analyses, a primary renal diagnosis of diabetes was associated with the largest decrement in utility scores. When separate regression models were fitted to each cohort, female gender and Asian ethnicity were associated with lower utility scores among waiting-list patients but not among transplant recipients. Among waiting-list patients, longer time spent on dialysis was also associated with poorer utility scores. When comorbidities were included, the presence of mental illness resulted in a utility decrement of 0.12 in both cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides new insights into variations in health-state utility values from a single source that can be used to inform cost-effectiveness evaluations in patients with end-stage renal disease.

The International Decision Support Initiative Reference Case for Economic Evaluation: An Aid to Thought.

BACKGROUND: Policymakers in high-, low-, and middle-income countries alike face challenging choices about resource allocation in health. Economic evaluation can be useful in providing decision makers with the best evidence of the anticipated benefits of new investments, as well as their expected opportunity costs-the benefits forgone of the options not chosen. To guide the decisions of health systems effectively, it is important that the methods of economic evaluation are founded on clear principles, are applied systematically, and are appropriate to the decision problems they seek to inform. METHODS: The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, a major funder of economic evaluations of health technologies in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), commissioned a "reference case" through the International Decision Support Initiative (iDSI) to guide future evaluations, and improve both the consistency and usefulness to decision makers. RESULTS: The iDSI Reference Case draws on previous insights from the World Health Organization, the US Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health Care, and the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Comprising 11 key principles, each accompanied by methodological specifications and reporting standards, the iDSI Reference Case also serves as a means of identifying priorities for methods research, and can be used as a framework for capacity building and technical assistance in LMICs. CONCLUSIONS: The iDSI Reference Case is an aid to thought, not a substitute for it, and should not be followed slavishly without regard to context, culture, or history. This article presents the iDSI Reference Case and discusses the rationale, approach, components, and application in LMICs.

Predicting patient survival after deceased donor kidney transplantation using flexible parametric modelling.

BACKGROUND: The influence of donor and recipient factors on outcomes following kidney transplantation is commonly analysed using Cox regression models, but this approach is not useful for predicting long-term survival beyond observed data. We demonstrate the application of a flexible parametric approach to fit a model that can be extrapolated for the purpose of predicting mean patient survival. The primary motivation for this analysis is to develop a predictive model to estimate post-transplant survival based on individual patient characteristics to inform the design of alternative approaches to allocating deceased donor kidneys to those on the transplant waiting list in the United Kingdom. METHODS: We analysed data from over 12,000 recipients of deceased donor kidney or combined kidney and pancreas transplants between 2003 and 2012. We fitted a flexible parametric model incorporating restricted cubic splines to characterise the baseline hazard function and explored a range of covariates including recipient, donor and transplant-related factors. RESULTS: Multivariable analysis showed the risk of death increased with recipient and donor age, diabetic nephropathy as the recipient's primary renal diagnosis and donor hypertension. The risk of death was lower in female recipients, patients with polycystic kidney disease and recipients of pre-emptive transplants. The final model was used to extrapolate survival curves in order to calculate mean survival times for patients with specific characteristics. CONCLUSION: The use of flexible parametric modelling techniques allowed us to address some of the limitations of both the Cox regression approach and of standard parametric models when the goal is to predict long-term survival.

Stroke in the TOTAL trial: a randomized trial of routine thrombectomy vs. percutaneous coronary intervention alone in ST elevation myocardial infarction.

AIMS: TOTAL (N = 10 732), a randomized trial of routine manual thrombectomy vs. percutaneous coronary intervention alone in ST elevation myocardial infarction, showed no difference in the primary efficacy outcome but a significant increase in stroke. We sought to understand these findings. METHODS AND RESULTS: A detailed analysis of stroke timing, stroke severity, and stroke subtype was performed. Strokes were adjudicated by neurologists blinded to treatment assignment. Stroke within 30 days, the primary safety outcome, was increased [33 (0.7%) vs. 16 (0.3%), hazard ratio (HR) 2.06; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-3.75]. The difference in stroke was apparent within 48 h [15 (0.3%) vs. 5 (0.1%), HR 3.00; 95% CI 1.09-8.25]. There was an increase in strokes within 180 days with minor or no disability (Rankin 0-2) [18 (0.4%) vs. 13 (0.3%) HR 1.38; 95% CI 0.68-2.82] and in strokes with major disability or fatal (Rankin 3-6) [35 (0.7%) vs. 13 (0.3%), HR 2.69; 95% CI 1.42-5.08]. Most of the absolute difference was due to an increase in ischaemic strokes within 180 days [37 (0.7%) vs. 21 (0.4%), HR 1.71; 95% CI 1.03-3.00], but there was also an increase in haemorrhagic strokes [10 (0.2%) vs. 2 (0.04%), HR 4.98; 95% CI 1.09-22.7]. Patients that had a stroke had a mortality of 30.8% within 180 days vs. 3.4% without a stroke (P < 0.001). A meta-analysis of randomized trials (N = 21 173) showed an increase in risk of stroke (odds ratio 1.59; 95% CI 1.11-2.27) but a trend towards reduction in mortality odds ratio (odds ratio 0.87; 95% CI 0.76-1.00). CONCLUSION: Thrombectomy was associated with a significant increase in stroke. Based on these findings, future trials must carefully collect stroke to determine safety in addition to efficacy.

Understanding cost of care for patients on renal replacement therapy: looking beyond fixed tariffs.

BACKGROUND: In a number of countries, reimbursement to hospitals providing renal dialysis services is set according to a fixed tariff. While the cost of maintenance dialysis and transplant surgery are amenable to a system of fixed tariffs, patients with established renal failure commonly present with comorbid conditions that can lead to variations in the need for hospitalization beyond the provision of renal replacement therapy. METHODS: Patient-level cost data for incident renal replacement therapy patients in England were obtained as a result of linkage of the Hospital Episodes Statistics dataset to UK Renal Registry data. Regression models were developed to explore variations in hospital costs in relation to treatment modality, number of years on treatment and factors such as age and comorbidities. The final models were then used to predict annual costs for patients with different sets of characteristics. RESULTS: Excluding the cost of renal replacement therapy itself, inpatient costs generally decreased with number of years on treatment for haemodialysis and transplant patients, whereas costs for patients receiving peritoneal dialysis remained constant. Diabetes was associated with higher mean annual costs for all patients irrespective of treatment modality and hospital setting. Age did not have a consistent effect on costs. CONCLUSIONS: Combining predicted hospital costs with the fixed costs of renal replacement therapy showed that the total cost differential for a patient continuing on dialysis rather than receiving a transplant is considerable following the first year of renal replacement therapy, thus reinforcing the longer-term economic advantage of transplantation over dialysis for the health service.