Global, Regional, and Country-Specific Lifetime Risks of Stroke, 1990 and 2016.

BACKGROUND: The lifetime risk of stroke has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We sought to estimate the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level using data from a comprehensive study of the prevalence of major diseases. METHODS: We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than stroke to calculate the cumulative lifetime risks of first stroke, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke among adults 25 years of age or older. Estimates of the lifetime risks in the years 1990 and 2016 were compared. Countries were categorized into quintiles of the sociodemographic index (SDI) used in the GBD Study, and the risks were compared across quintiles. Comparisons were made with the use of point estimates and uncertainty intervals representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles around the estimate. RESULTS: The estimated global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was 24.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.5 to 26.2); the risk among men was 24.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.3 to 26.0), and the risk among women was 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.7 to 26.5). The risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3%, and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. In high-SDI, high-middle-SDI, and low-SDI countries, the estimated lifetime risk of stroke was 23.5%, 31.1% (highest risk), and 13.2% (lowest risk), respectively; the 95% uncertainty intervals did not overlap between these categories. The highest estimated lifetime risks of stroke according to GBD region were in East Asia (38.8%), Central Europe (31.7%), and Eastern Europe (31.6%), and the lowest risk was in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). The mean global lifetime risk of stroke increased from 22.8% in 1990 to 24.9% in 2016, a relative increase of 8.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6.2 to 11.5); the competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke was considered in this calculation. CONCLUSIONS: In 2016, the global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was approximately 25% among both men and women. There was geographic variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with the highest risks in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).

Trends in diabetes mortality identified from death certificates in Colombia, 1979-2017.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the mortality trends of diabetes mellitus (DM) in Colombia, by sex and age group, from 1979 to 2017. METHODS: We carried out an ecological study using mortality data from the Colombian National Administrative Department of Statistics. Crude and age-standardized annual mortality rates per 100 000 people were estimated. Trends of standardized rates were described by sex and age groups. Joinpoint regression models were performed to study mortality trends. RESULTS: Throughout the whole period, the total number of DM recorded deaths in Colombia was 200 650, 58% (116 316) in women (p<0.05). The age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) by sex increased from 13.2 to 26.6 deaths per 100 000 in women and from 10.1 to 22.7 in men from 1979 to 1999. We observed a decrease from 26.6 to 15.4 per 100 000 in women, and from 22.7 to 15.9 in men for the period 1999-2017. The joinpoint regression analysis showed that the average annual percentage change of the period did not vary in both sexes (men: -0.2%, 95% CI -1.0 to 1.4%; women: 0.7%, 95% CI -0.1 to 1.6%). CONCLUSIONS: The DM mortality showed a decreasing trend after 2000 in women and 2004 in men. Primary and secondary prevention programs must continue to be strengthened for an earlier diagnosis of diabetes.

OBJETIVO: Describir las tendencias de la mortalidad por diabetes mellitus (DM) en Colombia, por sexo y grupo de edad, entre 1979 y 2017. MÉTODOS: Estudio ecológico con datos de mortalidad del Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística de Colombia. Se estimaron las tasas de mortalidad anuales brutas y ajustadas por edad por cada 100 000 personas. Se describieron las tendencias de las tasas ajustadas por sexo y grupos de edad. Se realizaron modelos de regresión joinpoint para estudiar las tendencias de la mortalidad. RESULTADOS: En el período del estudio, el número total de muertes por DM registradas en Colombia fue de 200 650, el 58% (116 316) en mujeres (p<0,05). Las tasas de mortalidad ajustadas por edad, en cada sexo, aumentaron de 13,2 a 26,6 muertes por 100 000 en las mujeres y de 10,1 a 22,7 en los hombres entre 1979 y 1999. En el período 1999-2017 se observó una disminución de 26,6 a 15,4 por 100 000 en las mujeres y de 22,7 a 15,9 en los hombres. El análisis de regresión joinpoint demostró que el cambio porcentual anual medio del período no varió en ambos sexos (hombres: ­0,2%, IC 95% ­1,0 a 1,4%; mujeres: 0,7%, IC 95% ­0,1 a 1,6%). CONCLUSIONES: La mortalidad por DM mostró una tendencia decreciente después del año 2000 en las mujeres y del 2004 en los hombres. Es necesario seguir fortaleciendo los programas de prevención primaria y secundaria a fin de alcanzar un diagnóstico más temprano de la diabetes.

Global Mortality From Firearms, 1990-2016.

Importance: Understanding global variation in firearm mortality rates could guide prevention policies and interventions. Objective: To estimate mortality due to firearm injury deaths from 1990 to 2016 in 195 countries and territories. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study used deidentified aggregated data including 13 812 location-years of vital registration data to generate estimates of levels and rates of death by age-sex-year-location. The proportion of suicides in which a firearm was the lethal means was combined with an estimate of per capita gun ownership in a revised proxy measure used to evaluate the relationship between availability or access to firearms and firearm injury deaths. Exposures: Firearm ownership and access. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cause-specific deaths by age, sex, location, and year. Results: Worldwide, it was estimated that 251 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 195 000-276 000) people died from firearm injuries in 2016, with 6 countries (Brazil, United States, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala) accounting for 50.5% (95% UI, 42.2%-54.8%) of those deaths. In 1990, there were an estimated 209 000 (95% UI, 172 000 to 235 000) deaths from firearm injuries. Globally, the majority of firearm injury deaths in 2016 were homicides (64.0% [95% UI, 54.2%-68.0%]; absolute value, 161 000 deaths [95% UI, 107 000-182 000]); additionally, 27% were firearm suicide deaths (67 500 [95% UI, 55 400-84 100]) and 9% were unintentional firearm deaths (23 000 [95% UI, 18 200-24 800]). From 1990 to 2016, there was no significant decrease in the estimated global age-standardized firearm homicide rate (-0.2% [95% UI, -0.8% to 0.2%]). Firearm suicide rates decreased globally at an annualized rate of 1.6% (95% UI, 1.1-2.0), but in 124 of 195 countries and territories included in this study, these levels were either constant or significant increases were estimated. There was an annualized decrease of 0.9% (95% UI, 0.5%-1.3%) in the global rate of age-standardized firearm deaths from 1990 to 2016. Aggregate firearm injury deaths in 2016 were highest among persons aged 20 to 24 years (for men, an estimated 34 700 deaths [95% UI, 24 900-39 700] and for women, an estimated 3580 deaths [95% UI, 2810-4210]). Estimates of the number of firearms by country were associated with higher rates of firearm suicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.21) and homicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.35). Conclusions and Relevance: This study estimated between 195 000 and 276 000 firearm injury deaths globally in 2016, the majority of which were firearm homicides. Despite an overall decrease in rates of firearm injury death since 1990, there was variation among countries and across demographic subgroups.

Tuberculosis patients face high treatment support costs in Colombia, 2021.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the baseline to measure one of the three indicators of the World Health Organization (WHO) End TB strategy (2015-2035), measure the costs incurred by patients affected by tuberculosis (TB) during a treatment episode and estimate the proportion of households facing catastrophic costs (CC) and associated risk factors, in Colombia, 2021. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A nationally representative cross-sectional survey was conducted among participants on TB treatment in Colombia, using telephone interviews due to the exceptional context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey collected household costs (direct [medical and non-medical out-of-pocket expenses] and indirect) over an episode of TB, loss of time, coping measures, self-reported income, and asset ownership. Total costs were expressed as a proportion of annual household income and analyzed for risk factors of CC (defined as costs above 20% annual household income). RESULTS: The proportion of TB-affected households incurring in costs above 20% annual household income (CC) was 51.7% (95%CI: 45.4-58.0) overall, 51.3% (95%CI: 44.9-57.7) among patients with drug-sensitive (DS) TB, and 65.0% (95%CI: 48.0-82.0) among drug-resistant (DR). The average patient cost of a TB case in Colombia was $1,218 (95%CI 1,106-1,330) including $860.9 (95%CI 776.1-945.7) for non-medical costs, $339 (95%CI 257-421) for the indirect costs, and $18.1 (95%CI 11.9-24.4) for the medical costs. The factors that influenced the probability of facing CC were income quintile, job loss, DR-TB patient, and TB type. CONCLUSION: Main cost drivers for CC were non-medical out-of-pocket expenses and income loss (indirect costs). Current social protection programs ought to be expanded to mitigate the proportion of TB-affected households facing CC in Colombia, especially those with lower income levels.

Educational inequalities in heart failure mortality and the cycles of the internal armed conflict in Colombia: An observational panel study of ecological data, 1999-2017.

Heart failure (HF) is a significant clinical problem and an important public health issue due to the morbidity and mortality that it causes, especially in a population that is aging and affected by social stressors such as armed conflict. We aim to describe the inequalities and trends of HF mortality by educational level in Colombia between 1999 and 2017 compared with the cycles of the internal armed conflict during the same period. An observational study of ecological data panels, with aggregates at the national level, was conducted. Information from death certificates with HF as the basic cause of death (COD) was used. Variables of the year of death, sex, age, department of residence, and educational level were considered. Mortality rates adjusted for age were calculated. A joinpoint regression was used to model the trend of rates by educational level. We found that both men and women with primary education had the highest adjusted mortality rates: among men, RR_primary = 19.06 deaths/100,000 inhabitants, SE = 0.13 vs. RR_tertiary = 4.85, SE = 0.17, and similar differences among women. Mortality rates tended to decrease at all educational levels, with a greater reduction in people with higher educational levels. In both sexes, the behavior of the relative index of inequality showed significant inequality, albeit with a strong reduction during the last decade. Mortality due to HF in Colombia shows inequalities by educational level. In the prevention of HF, education should be considered a structural social determinant. In addition, we analyzed the potential role of the Colombian long-term armed conflict in the observed trends. We highlighted the role of the health sector, together with other sectors (education, work, and housing), in developing intersectoral public policies that contribute to the reduction of cardiovascular mortality disparities.

Maternal mortality in Colombia during the COVID-19 pandemic: time series and social inequities.

OBJECTIVE: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic goes beyond morbidity and mortality from that disease. Increases in maternal mortality have also been described but have not been extensively studied to date. This study aimed to examine changes in maternal mortality and identify correlates and predictors of excess maternal mortality in Colombia during the pandemic. SETTING: Analysis of data from the national epidemiological surveillance databases of Colombia (Sivigila). PARTICIPANTS: Deaths among 6342 Colombian pregnant women who experienced complications associated with pregnancy, childbirth or the perperium during 2008-2020 were included in this study. For inequalities analysis, a subsample of 1055 women from this group who died in 2019 or 2020 years were analysed. METHODS: We collected data from the national surveillance system (Sivigila) on maternal mortality. Analysis was carried out in two stages, starting with a time series modelling using the Box-Jenkins approach. Data from Sivigila for 2008-2019 were used to establish a baseline of expected mortality levels. Both simple and complex inequality metrics, with the maternal mortality ratios (MMRs), were then calculated using the Multidimensional Poverty Index as a socioeconomic proxy. RESULTS: Maternal deaths in 2020 were 12.6% (95% CI -21.4% to 95.7%) higher than expected. These excess deaths were statistically significant in elevation for the months of July (97.4%, 95% CI 35.1% to 250.0%) and August (87.8%, 95% CI 30.5% to 220.8%). The MMR was nearly three times higher in the poorest municipalities compared with the most affluent communities in 2020. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic had considerable impact on maternal health, not only by leading to increased deaths, but also by increasing social health inequity. Barriers to access and usage of essential health services are a challenge to achieving health-related Sustainable Development Goals.

Indirect impact of PCV10 children vaccination on the serotype distribution and antimicrobial resistance of Streptococcus pneumoniae causing invasive disease in adults over 50 in Colombia, 2005-2019: Observational analysis.

INTRODUCTION: The introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) into childhood vaccination programmes has reduced the prevalence of vaccine serotypes (VTs) that cause invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in children. In the elderly population, an impact has also been seen through indirect protection (herd effect). The aim of this study was to estimate the changes in serotype distribution and antimicrobial susceptibility of Streptococcus pneumoniae isolates recovered from adult IPD and to evaluate the indirect effect of immunization with PCV10 based on laboratory records by analyzing the period from 2005 to 2019 for six years before and eight years after the universal PCV10 administration to Colombian children. METHODS: A total of 2204 S. pneumoniae isolates from adults (≥50 years) with IPD were analyzed. The analysis examined the percentage changes in proportions (prevalence) and percentage variations in population rates (annual reported rates - ARR) of VTs between the pre-PCV10 (2005-2009) and post-PCV10 (2015-2019) periods. RESULTS: The findings were (1) evidence of a significant percentage decrease of pneumococcal VT10 causing IPD in adults (50% pre-PCV10 and 16% post-PCV10); (2) significant increase of serotype 19A (from 1.6% to 14.8%) and less important increase of serotype 3 (from 10.5% to 14.5%) and non-vaccine serotypes (NVT) (from 21.4% to 38.4%) non-significant; and (3) meningitis and non-meningitis multidrug resistant isolates associated with serotype 19A. An improvement in the surveillance system is associated with the immunization of children, as noted by the increased ARRs across the analysis period. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show the indirect impact of PCV10 vaccination in children on the VT10 distribution and antimicrobial resistance of S. pneumoniae causing IPD in Colombian adults over 50 when comparing the pre-PCV10 (2005-2009) and post-PCV10 (2015-2019) periods.

Criteria for New Vaccine Introduction in a National Expanded Program on Immunization: A Survey of Expanded Program on Immunization Managers.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to critically review the decision-making (DM) processes for new vaccines introduction in Latin America's Expanded Program on Immunization (EPIs) and role of cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs). METHODS: An online survey was conducted between August and December 2019 to Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) EPI managers, participants of the National Immunization Technical Advisory Group (NITAG). Information about criteria to introduce the most recent vaccine was asked. CEA role in that decision and technical knowledge of informants were investigated. Frequencies of categorical data were calculated. Bar plots and stacked bar plots were used to visualize the data. RESULTS: A total of 26 EPI managers and stakeholders participated in the survey from 14 LAC countries. Respondents worked at the Ministry of Health and the Pan American Health Organization. Most recent vaccines included were human papillomavirus (42.3%), injectable polio (26.9%), and varicella (15.4%). High burden of disease and cost-effectiveness/cost-utility were identified as the main a priori criteria used to new vaccine introduction, but not all inputs are available or good quality. Discussion about vaccine introduction was conducted at NITAG meetings, reported as independent by most countries. Nevertheless, NITAG members did not master the essential CEAs concepts. CONCLUSIONS: DM of vaccine introduction in LAC is reported by EPI managers as a process of discussion with participation of several actors where economic rationalities had a high role in the decision. It is necessary to strengthen the technical capacity to understand economical inputs to inform DM and advocate to include other rationalities as important in the discussion.

Economic costs of severe seasonal influenza in Colombia, 2017-2019: A multi-center analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the economic burden of Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) in lab-confirmed influenza patients from a low-income country setting such as Colombia. METHODS: A bottom-up costing analysis, from both third payer and social perspectives, was conducted. Direct costs of care were based on the review of 227 clinical records of lab-confirmed influenza inpatients in six facilities from three main Colombian cities. Resources were categorized as: length of stay (LOS), diagnostic and laboratory tests, medications, consultation, procedures, and supplies. A survey was designed to estimate out-of-pocket expenses (OOPE) and indirect costs covered by patients and their families. Cost per patient was estimated with the frequency of use and prices of activities, calculating median and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) with bootstrapping. Total costs are expressed as the sum of direct medical costs, OOPE and indirect costs in 2018 US dollars. RESULTS: The media direct medical cost per SARI lab-confirmed influenza patient was US$ 700 (95% CI US$ 552-809). Diagnostic and laboratory tests correspond to the highest cost per patient (37%). Median OOPE and indirect costs per patient was US$ 147 (95% CI US$ 94-202), with the highest costs for caregiver expenses (27%). Total costs were US$ 848 (95% CI US$ 646-1,011), OOPE and indirect costs corresponded to 17.4% of the total. The median of direct medical costs per patient was three times higher in elderly patients. CONCLUSION: SARI influenza costs impose a high economic burden on patients and their families. The results highlight the importance of strengthening preventive strategies nationwide in the age groups with higher occurrence and incurred health costs.

Analysis of interactions of actors of the knowledge network on malaria in Colombia / Análisis de interacciones de actores de la red de gestión del conocimiento en malaria de Colombia

Introduction: Malaria is a disease with a high impact on Colombian population, which must be approached from the point of view of teamwork of institutions for knowledge exchange. Objective: To analyze the interactions of the Red de Gestión del Conocimiento, Investigación e Innovación en Malaria de Colombia. Materials and methods: An analysis of social networks was applied that allowed identifying the proximity between actors and the degree of knowledge between them. Indicators of density, diameter, average distance, and degree of centrality were observed. The documentary corpus for the study consisted of 193 technical documents published between 2016 and 2021, which were analyzed using text mining using the R programming language. The network was categorized based on five variables: comprehensive patient care, diagnosis, epidemiology and health information analysis systems, public policy and promotion and prevention. Results: The analysis of interactions indicated that the network was made up by 99 actors. The main interest in knowledge production was on epidemiology and health information analysis systems (98 % of the actors), followed by the integral patient care (80 % of the actors). On the contrary, the least approached category was malaria promotion and prevention practices (54 % of the actors). Conclusions: In general, this study contributes to the strengthening of key strategies in the dissemination of knowledge about malaria in Colombia.

Introducción. La malaria, o paludismo, es una enfermedad de gran impacto en la población colombiana, que debe ser abordada desde el punto de vista del trabajo en equipo de instituciones para el intercambio de conocimiento. Objetivo. Analizar las interacciones de la Red de Gestión del Conocimiento, Investigación e Innovación en Malaria de Colombia. Materiales y métodos. Se hizo un análisis de redes sociales que permitió identificar la proximidad entre los actores y el grado de conocimiento entre ellos; se observaron indicadores de densidad, diámetro, distancia media y centralidad de grado. El corpus documental para el estudio estuvo constituido por 193 documentos técnicos publicados entre el 2016 y el 2021, que fueron analizados empleando técnicas de procesamiento de texto mediante el lenguaje de programación R. La categorización de la red se realizó a partir de cinco variables: atención integral a pacientes, diagnóstico, epidemiología y sistemas de análisis de información en salud, política pública, y promoción y prevención. Resultados. El análisis de las interacciones indicó que la red la conformaban 99 actores, de los cuales 97 (98 %), mostraron más interés en la producción de conocimientos en epidemiología y sistemas de análisis de información en salud, seguido de la categoría de atención integral a pacientes con 79 (80 %). El 54 % de los actores llevó a cabo estudios de promoción y prevención, siendo esta la categoría de menor abordaje. Conclusiones. Este estudio contribuye al fortalecimiento de estrategias clave en la divulgación del conocimiento sobre la malaria en Colombia.

How Expensive Are Hospitalizations by COVID-19? Evidence From Colombia.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to estimate the direct medical costs due to hospitalizations by COVID-19 in Colombia and to identify their cost drivers in Colombia. METHODS: This is a retrospective cost-of-illness study of COVID-19 in Colombia. We estimated direct medical costs using data from patients insured to a Benefit Plan Administrator Company, between March 15, 2020 and May 29, 2020. Absolute and relative frequencies, averages, medians, and interquartile ranges (IQRs) were used to characterize the population and estimate the costs of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. We stratified the cost analysis by sex, age groups, comorbidities, and type of hospitalization (general ward and intensive care unit [ICU]). Cost drivers were calculated from a generalized linear model. RESULTS: We studied 113 confirmed patients, 51.3% men. On average, the hospital length of stay was 7.3 (± 6.2) days. A person hospitalized with COVID-19 reported median costs of $1688 (IQR 788-2523). In women, this cost was $1328 (IQR 463-2098); in men, this was 1.4 times greater. The median cost for ICU was $4118 (IQR 2069-5455), 3 times higher than those hospitalized only in the general ward. Admission to the ICU, having 1 comorbidity, length of stay, high blood pressure, having 5 comorbidities, and being treated in the city of Cartagena were statistically significant with direct medical costs. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides an idea of the magnitude of costs needed to hospitalize a COVID-19 case in Colombia. Other studies in Colombia have assessed the costs of hospitalization for infectious diseases such as influenza, costs significantly lower than those described here.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Strategies of COVID-19 Vaccination in Colombia: Comparison of High-Risk Prioritization and No Prioritization Strategies With the Absence of a Vaccination Plan.

OBJECTIVES: Our study compares two national COVID-19 vaccination plan strategies-high-risk prioritization and no prioritization-and estimates their cost-effectiveness compared with no vaccination, to generate possible recommendations for future vaccination plans. METHODS: We developed a Markov discrete-time, compartmental, deterministic model stratified by Colombian departments, healthcare workers, comorbidities, and age groups and calibrated to seroprevalence, cases, and deaths. The model simulates three scenarios: no vaccination, no prioritization of vaccination, and prioritization of high-risk population. The study presents the perspective of the health system of Colombia, including the direct health costs financed by the government and the direct health outcomes related to the infection. We measured symptomatic cases, deaths, and costs for each of the three scenarios from the start of the vaccination rollout to February 20, 2023. RESULTS: Both for the base-case and across multiple sensitivity analyses, the high-risk prioritization proves to be the most cost-effective of the considered strategies. An increment of US$255 million results in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$3339 per disability-adjusted life-year avoided. The simulations show that prioritization of high-risk population reduces symptomatic cases by 3.4% and deaths by 20.1% compared with no vaccination. The no-prioritization strategy is still cost-effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$5223.66, but the sensitivity analysis the show potential risks of losing cost-effectiveness under the cost-effectiveness threshold (one gross domestic product per averted disability-adjusted life-year). CONCLUSIONS: The high-risk prioritization strategy is consistently more cost-effective than the no-prioritization strategy across multiple scenarios. High-risk prioritization is the recommended strategy in low-resource settings to reduce the burden of disease.

Substantial Out-of-Pocket Health Expenditure on Prenatal Check-Ups: Estimates from a Sample of Pregnant Women in Cartagena, Colombia.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to estimate out-of-pocket (OOP) health expenditures and the indirect costs related to prenatal check-ups in pregnant women seen in a maternity hospital in the Colombian Caribbean region. METHODS: We described the economic costs of pregnant women, with no age limits, who attended prenatal check-ups in a maternity hospital. To estimate OOP and indirect costs owing to prenatal check-ups in pregnant women, a survey was constructed, where the woman was asked about some sociodemographic variables, to characterize those attending the prenatal check-ups. Absolute and relative frequencies, averages and confidence intervals were used to characterize the population and estimate OOP and indirect costs in pregnant women. The latter were estimated from the percentile method. A bootstrapping was performed to reduce the bias within the analysis. RESULTS: In total, 56 pregnant women were surveyed, with an average age of 25.9 years (±6.2). All women surveyed had OOP associated to the prenatal check-up in at least one cost-item, and the OOP ranged between $0.3 and $108.7. Transportation was the item with the highest frequency of expenses, followed by food, other expenses, and drugs. The mean of OOP expenditures was $24.3 (CI 95% $18.1-31.4) for women who attended their prenatal check-up. DISCUSSION: Considering the estimated OOP health expenditures caused by prenatal check-ups by household income, women living with <1 minimum wage spend 7% of their income in a prenatal check-up. In women with 1-2 and >2-3 minimum wages, these proportions were 5%, 3%, respectively. Unfortunately, this makes prenatal care a significant source of economic burden, impacting poor households in Cartagena.

The burden of the most common rheumatic disease in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the burden of rheumatic diseases (RDs) requires proper evaluation of its lethal and nonlethal consequences. In Colombia, it is possible to find local data and Global Burden of Disease (GBD) reports that collect information from varied contexts and apply complex statistical models, but no on-site estimations are available. METHODS: This was a descriptive study on the burden of RD based on occurrence and mortality data in the general population during 2015, including information and prevalence estimations from the Community Oriented Program for the Control of Rheumatic Diseases (COPCORD) study. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were estimated by combining measures of years of life lost (YLL) and years lived with disability (YLDs). For disability weight estimations among cases, different COPCORD responses were mapped using flowcharts to show the severity distribution according to GBD. All model parameters and results were validated through an expert consensus panel. RESULTS: Low back pain (LBP) was the RD with the greatest burden of disease, costing 606.05 (95% CI 502.76-716.58) DALYs per 100,000 inhabitants, followed by osteoarthritis (292.11; 95% CI 205.76-386.85) and rheumatoid arthritis (192.46, 95% CI 109.7-239.69). CONCLUSIONS: The burden of RD is as high in Colombia as in other countries of the region. The results offer an interesting tool for optimizing healthcare system design as well as for planning the distribution of human and economic resources to achieve early diagnosis and adequate care of these diseases.

Indirect effects of the SARS CoV-2 pandemic on the prevalence of breastfeeding: Modeling its impact. / Efectos indirectos de la pandemia por SARS CoV-2 en la prevalencia de lactancia materna: modelación de su impacto

INTRODUCTION: Breastfeeding has a protective effect against acute respiratory and diarrheal infections. There are psychological and social effects due to physical isolation in the population in the mother-child group. OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact on infant mortality due to a decrease in the prevalence of breastfeeding during 2020 due to the physical isolation against the SARS CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic in Colombia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used the population attributable risk approach taking into account the prevalence of breastfeeding and its potential decrease associated with the measures of physical isolation and the relative risk (RR) of the association between exclusive breastfeeding and the occurrence of acute infection consequences in the growth (weight for height) of children under the age of five through a mathematical modeling program. RESULTS: We found an increase of 11.39% in the number of cases of growth arrest in the age group of 6 to 11 months with a 50% decrease in breastfeeding prevalence, as well as an increase in the number of diarrhea cases in children between 1 and 5 months of age from 5% (5.67%) on, and an increased number of deaths in children under 5 years (9.04%) with a 50% decrease in the prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding. CONCLUSIONS: A lower prevalence of breastfeeding has an impact on infant morbidity and mortality in the short and medium-term. As a public health policy, current maternal and childcare strategies must be kept in order to reduce risks in the pediatric population.

Introducción. La lactancia materna tiene un efecto protector frente a infecciones respiratorias y diarreicas agudas. Hay efectos psicológicos y sociales por el aislamiento físico en la población en el grupo materno-infantil. Objetivo. Evaluar el eventual impacto en la mortalidad infantil de la disminución en la prevalencia de la lactancia materna durante el 2020 a causa del aislamiento físico por la pandemia del SARS CoV-2 (COVID-19) en Colombia. Materiales y métodos. Se utilizó el enfoque de riesgo atribuible poblacional, teniendo en cuenta la prevalencia de la lactancia materna y su potencial disminución asociada con las medidas de aislamiento físico y el riesgo relativo (RR) de la asociación entre la lactancia materna exclusiva y el efecto de la aparición de infecciones agudas en el crecimiento (peso para la altura) de niños menores de cinco años mediante un programa de modelamiento matemático. Resultados. Se registró un aumento del número casos de detención del crecimiento en el grupo etario de 6 a 11 meses de 11,39 % al disminuir en 50 % la prevalencia de la lactancia materna, así como un mayor número de casos por diarrea en los cinco primeros meses a partir del 5 % (5,67 %), y un incremento en el número de muertes en menores de 5 años (9,04 %) al disminuirse en 50 % la prevalencia de la lactancia materna. Conclusiones. Se registró un impacto en la morbilidad y la mortalidad infantil a corto y mediano plazo al disminuir la prevalencia en la lactancia materna. Como política pública en salud, deben mantenerse las estrategias actuales de atención materno-infantil para disminuir riesgos en la población infantil.

Inequalities in dental prenatal control in Colombia: An analysis based on the IV National Oral Health Study, 2013-2014 / [Desigualdades en el control odontológico prenatal en Colombia, un análisis a partir del IV Estudio Nacional de Salud Bucal 2013-2014].

Introduction: Dental care is essential in guaranteeing the right to healthy motherhood. In Colombia, prenatal care policies incorporate the promotion, prevention, and care in oral health as part of the comprehensive care that pregnant women must receive within the health system. However, there is no systematic monitoring of compliance with these guidelines. Objective: To explore effective care and social inequalities in the provision and use of prenatal dental control in Colombia. Materials and methods: This was a descriptive study with data on pregnant women reported in the Fourth National Oral Health Study, 2013-2014. Absolute and relative social inequalities were estimated according to the area of residence, ethnicity, education level, health affiliation regime, and socioeconomic stratum. Results: We analyzed the data from 1,050 pregnant women. In total, 88.37% received prenatal control and 57.19%, dental control. We observed a general pattern of social gaps in the effective use of the latter, mainly due to the health insurance regime. The pregnant women with the greatest possibility of having some prenatal dental control, were those with some health insurance (prevalence ratio [RP]=2.62; CI 95%: 2.12-3.12), residents in urban areas (RP= 1,37; CI95%: 1.18-1.56), with higher and/or technical education level (RP=1.20; CI95%: 1.02-1.38) or from mid-high social strata (RP=1.15; CI95%: 1.01-1.29). Conclusions: In Colombia, the effective provision of dental control to pregnant women as part of comprehensive prenatal care continues to be a challenge. Significant efforts are required to comply with regulations and reduce social inequalities in access to this service.

Introducción. La atención odontológica es esencial para garantizar el derecho a una maternidad saludable. En Colombia, las políticas de atención prenatal incorporan la promoción, prevención y atención en salud bucal como parte de la atención integral que deben recibir las mujeres gestantes en el sistema de salud, sin embargo, no se hace un seguimiento sistemático del cumplimiento de estas directrices. Objetivo. Explorar la atención efectiva y las desigualdades sociales en la prestación y el uso del control odontológico prenatal en Colombia. Materiales y métodos. Estudio descriptivo con datos de las mujeres gestantes reportadas en el Cuarto Estudio Nacional de Salud Bucal, 2013-2014. Se estimaron las desigualdades sociales absolutas y relativas, según zona de residencia, pertenencia étnica, nivel educativo, régimen de afiliación a los servicios de salud y estrato socioeconómico. Resultados. Se analizaron los datos de 1.050 mujeres gestantes. El 88,37 % recibió control prenatal y, el 57,19 %, control odontológico. Se observó un patrón general de brechas sociales en el uso efectivo de este último servicio, principalmente en función del aseguramiento. Las mujeres gestantes con mayor posibilidad de recibir atención odontológica prenatal fueron aquellas con algún aseguramiento en salud (razón de prevalencias, RP=2,62; IC95% 2,12-3,12), residentes en zonas urbanas (RP=1,37; IC95% 1,18-1,56), con nivel educativo técnico o superior (RP=1,20; IC95% 1,02-1,38) o de estratos sociales medios o altos (RP=1,15; IC95% 1,01-1,29). Conclusiones. En Colombia, la prestación efectiva del control odontológico a mujeres gestantes como parte de la atención prenatal integral, sigue siendo un reto. Se requieren importantes esfuerzos para cumplir las normas y reducir las desigualdades sociales en el acceso a este servicio.

Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease.

Probabilistic forecasts play an indispensable role in answering questions about the spread of newly emerged pathogens. However, uncertainties about the epidemiology of emerging pathogens can make it difficult to choose among alternative model structures and assumptions. To assess the potential for uncertainties about emerging pathogens to affect forecasts of their spread, we evaluated the performance 16 forecasting models in the context of the 2015-2016 Zika epidemic in Colombia. Each model featured a different combination of assumptions about human mobility, spatiotemporal variation in transmission potential, and the number of virus introductions. We found that which model assumptions had the most ensemble weight changed through time. We additionally identified a trade-off whereby some individual models outperformed ensemble models early in the epidemic, but on average the ensembles outperformed all individual models. Our results suggest that multiple models spanning uncertainty across alternative assumptions are necessary to obtain robust forecasts for emerging infectious diseases.

The direct effect of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines on invasive pneumococcal disease in children in the Latin American and Caribbean region (SIREVA 2006-17): a multicentre, retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Streptococcus pneumoniae isolated from patients with invasive pneumococcal disease has been subjected to laboratory-based surveillance in Latin American and Caribbean countries since 1993. Invasive pneumococcal diseases remain a major cause of death and disability worldwide, particularly in children. We therefore aimed to assess the direct effect of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) on the distribution of pneumococcal serotypes causing invasive pneumococcal disease in children younger than 5 years before and after PCV introduction. METHODS: We did a multicentre, retrospective observational study in eight countries that had introduced PCV (ie, PCV countries) in the Latin American and Caribbean region: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Cuba and Venezuela were also included as non-PCV countries. Isolate data for Streptococcus pneumoniae were obtained between 2006 and 2017 from children younger than 5 years with an invasive pneumococcal disease from local laboratories or hospitals. Species' confirmation and capsular serotyping were done by the respective national reference laboratories. Databases from the Sistema Regional de Vacunas (SIREVA) participating countries were managed and cleaned in a unified database using Microsoft Excel 2016 and the program R (version 3.6.1). Analysis involved percentage change in vaccine serotypes between pre-PCV and post-PCV periods and the annual reporting rate of invasive pneumococcal diseases per 100 000 children younger than 5 years, which was used as a population reference to calculate percentage vaccine type reduction. FINDINGS: Between 2006 and 2017, 12 269 isolates of invasive pneumococcal disease were collected from children younger than 5 years in the ten Latin American and Caribbean countries. The ten serotypes included in ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) decreased significantly (p<0·0001) after any PCV introduction, except for the Dominican Republic. The percentage change for the ten vaccine serotypes in PCV10 countries was -91·6% in Brazil (530 [72·9%] of 727 before, 27 [6·1%] of 441 after); -85·0% in Chile (613 [72·6%] of 844 before, 44 [10·9%] of 404] after); -84·7% in Colombia (231 [63·1%] of 366 before, 34 [9·7%] of 352 after); and -73·8% in Paraguay (127 [77·0%] of 165 before, 22 [20·2%] of 109 after). In the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) countries, the percentage change for the 13 vaccine serotypes was -59·6% in Argentina (853 [85·0%] of 1003 before, 149 [34·3%] of 434 after); -16·5% in the Dominican Republic (95 [80·5%] of 118 before, 39 [67·2%] of 58 after); -43·7% in Mexico (202 [73·2%] of 276 before, 63 [41·2%] of 153 after); and -45·9% in Uruguay (138 [80·7%] of 171 before, 38 [43·7%] of 87 after). Annual reporting rates showed a reduction from -82·5% (6·21 before vs 1·09 after per 100 000, 95% CI -61·6 to -92·0) to -94·7% (1·15 vs 0·06 per 100 000, -89·7 to -97·3) for PCV10 countries, and -58·8% (2·98 vs 1·23 per 100 000, -21·4 to -78·4) to -82·9% (7·80 vs 1·33 per 100 000, -76·9 to -87·4) for PCV13 countries. An increase in the amount of non-vaccine types was observed in the eight countries after PCV introduction together with an increase in their percentage in relation to total invasive strains in the post-PCV period. INTERPRETATION: SIREVA laboratory surveillance was able to confirm the effect of PCV vaccine on serotypes causing invasive pneumococcal disease in the eight PCV countries. Improved monitoring of the effect and trends in vaccine type as well as in non-vaccine type isolates is needed, as this information will be relevant for future decisions associated with new PCVs. FUNDING: None. TRANSLATIONS: For the Portuguese and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Is There Something Else Beyond Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for Public Health Decision Making?

Healthcare costs are a concern for the sustainability of health systems in both rich and poor countries. Achieving a balance between the aspirations of payers and the manufacturers of new technologies is a challenge for democratic societies. Evidence about the efficacy and effectiveness of a new intervention is a fundamental aspect for its inclusion, but additional information about organization, implementation, and feasibility is required. Economic evaluations, especially cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA), help inform the choice of a particular health intervention, but they are not the only input for decision making (DM). Use of CEA is relatively recent but has quickly become widespread. CEA techniques have evolved into increasingly complex and sophisticated methods intended to reflect reality closely but, at the same time, their results have become more difficult to verify and validate. In developed countries, CEA results have generated intense debates, but in developing countries, these reflections are still weak due to lack of technical capacity. Competing perspectives on CEAs exist and can heavily influence the DM process. The use of CEAs and the interpretation of their results requires critical analysis, especially when public funds are to be invested. Here, we present a perspective on the use of CEAs for DM that arises from our experience of its use in developing countries and requires the consideration of other rationalities, in addition to the economic one, for DM.

Education and pneumonia mortality: a trend analysis of its inequalities in Colombian adults.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the existence and trends of social inequalities related to pneumonia mortality in Colombian adults using educational level as a proxy of socioeconomic status. METHODS: We obtained individual and anonymised registries from death certificates due to pneumonia for 1998-2015. Educational level data were gathered from microdata of the Colombian Demography Health Surveys. Rate ratios (RR) were estimated by using Poisson regression models, comparing mortality of educational groups with mortality in the highest education group. Relative index of inequality (RII) was measured to assess changes in disparities, regressing mortality on the midpoint of the cumulative distribution of education, thereby considering the size of each educational group. RESULTS: For adults 25+ years, the risk of dying was significantly higher among lower educated. The RRs depict increased risks of dying comparing lower and highest education level, and this tendency was stronger in woman than in men (RR for primary education=2.34 (95% CI 2.32 to 2.36), RR for secondary education=1.77 (95% CI 1.75 to 1.78) versus RR for primary education=1.83 (95% CI 1.81 to 1.85), RR for secondary education=1.51 (95% CI 1.50 to 1.53)). According to age groups, young adults (25-44 years) showed the largest inequality in terms of educational level; RRs for pneumonia mortality regarding the tertiary educated groups show increased mortality in the lower and secondary educated, and these differences decreased with ages. RII in pneumonia mortality among adult men was 2.01 (95% CI 2.00 to 2.03) and in women 2.46 (95% CI 2.43 to 2.48). The RII was greatest at young ages, for both sexes. Time trends showed steadily significant increases for RII in both men and women (estimated annual percentage change (EAPC)men=3.8; EAPCwomen=2.6). CONCLUSION: A significant increase on the educational inequalities in mortality due to pneumonia during all period was found among men and women. Efforts to reduce pneumonia mortality in adults improving population health by raising education levels should be strengthened with policies that assure widespread access to economic and social opportunities.