Risk factors for disease severity among children with Covid-19: a clinical prediction model.

BACKGROUND: Children account for a significant proportion of COVID-19 hospitalizations, but data on the predictors of disease severity in children are limited. We aimed to identify risk factors associated with moderate/severe COVID-19 and develop a nomogram for predicting children with moderate/severe COVID-19. METHODS: We identified children ≤ 12 years old hospitalized for COVID-19 across five hospitals in Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia, from 1 January 2021 to 31 December 2021 from the state's pediatric COVID-19 case registration system. The primary outcome was the development of moderate/severe COVID-19 during hospitalization. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify independent risk factors for moderate/severe COVID-19. A nomogram was constructed to predict moderate/severe disease. The model performance was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy. RESULTS: A total of 1,717 patients were included. After excluding the asymptomatic cases, 1,234 patients (1,023 mild cases and 211 moderate/severe cases) were used to develop the prediction model. Nine independent risk factors were identified, including the presence of at least one comorbidity, shortness of breath, vomiting, diarrhea, rash, seizures, temperature on arrival, chest recessions, and abnormal breath sounds. The nomogram's sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and AUC for predicting moderate/severe COVID-19 were 58·1%, 80·5%, 76·8%, and 0·86 (95% CI, 0·79 - 0·92) respectively. CONCLUSION: Our nomogram, which incorporated readily available clinical parameters, would be useful to facilitate individualized clinical decisions.

Mortality outcomes based on ED qSOFA score and HIV status in a developing low income country.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the utility of the quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score to predict risks for emergency department (ED) and hospital mortality among patients in a sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) setting. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study was carried out at a tertiary-care hospital, in Kigali, Rwanda and included patients ≥15years, presenting for ED care during 2013 with an infectious disease (ID). ED and overall hospital mortality were evaluated using multivariable regression, with qSOFA scores as the primary predictor (reference: qSOFA=0), to yield adjusted relative risks (aRR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Analyses were performed for the overall population and stratified by HIV status. RESULTS: Among 15,748 cases, 760 met inclusion (HIV infected 197). The most common diagnoses were malaria and intra-abdominal infections. Prevalence of ED and hospital mortality were 12.5% and 25.4% respectively. In the overall population, ED mortality aRR was 4.8 (95% CI 1.9-12.0) for qSOFA scores equal to 1 and 7.8 (95% CI 3.1-19.7) for qSOFA scores ≥2. The aRR for hospital mortality in the overall cohort was 2.6 (95% 1.6-4.1) for qSOFA scores equal to 1 and 3.8 (95% 2.4-6.0) for qSOFA scores ≥2. For HIV infected cases, although proportional mortality increased with greater qSOFA score, statistically significant risk differences were not identified. CONCLUSION: The qSOFA score provided risk stratification for both ED and hospital mortality outcomes in the setting studied, indicating utility in sepsis care in SSA, however, further prospective study in high-burden HIV populations is needed.

Risk of Peritoneal Dialysis-Related Peritonitis in a Multi-Racial Asian Population.

♦ BACKGROUND: Peritonitis is one of the most common complications of peritoneal dialysis (PD). Understanding the risk factors of peritonitis in a multi-racial Asian population may help to improve outcomes on PD. ♦ METHODS: We conducted a prospective observational study to identify risk factors for PD-related peritonitis over a 1-year period in 15 adult PD centers. All peritonitis episodes were independently adjudicated. ♦ RESULTS: A total of 1,603 participants with a mean age of 51.6 years comprising 52.7% females, 62.6% ethnic Malays, 27.0% Chinese, and 8.1% Indians were recruited. The overall peritonitis rate was 1 episode per 44.0 patient-months with 354 episodes recorded in 282 (17.6%) patients over 15,588 patient-months. Significant risk factors of peritonitis were severe obesity (incidence-rate ratio [IRR] 3.32, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.30, 8.45), hypoalbuminemia (IRR 1.61, 95% CI: 1.06, 2.46), Staphylococcus aureus nasal carriage (IRR 2.26, 95% CI: 1.46, 3.50), and use of Fresenius system (Fresenius Medical Care North America, Waltham, MA, USA) (IRR 2.49, 95% CI: 1.27, 4.89). The risk of peritonitis was lower in those on automated PD compared with standard PD (IRR 0.43, 95% CI: 0.25, 0.74), and in centers with a patient-staff ratio of 15 to 29.9 (IRR 0.67, 95% CI: 0.49, 0.90) and ≥ 30 (IRR 0.52, 95% CI: 0.34, 0.80). Prevalent patients and exit-site care with topical antibiotics were also protective against peritonitis. Peritonitis rates varied between racial groups. The IRRs of overall peritonitis and gram-positive peritonitis in Chinese versus other racial groups were 0.65 (95% CI: 0.46, 0.90) and 0.47 (95% CI: 0.24, 0.91), respectively. ♦ CONCLUSIONS: Multiple patient, center, and PD-system factors influence the risk of peritonitis. In the Asian population, there are racial differences in the risk of peritonitis.

Outbreak of Human Brucellosis from Consumption of Raw Goats' Milk in Penang, Malaysia.

We report the largest outbreak of brucellosis in Penang, Malaysia. Brucellosis is not endemic in this region. The index case was a 45-year-old goat farm owner presented with 3 weeks of fever, headache, severe lethargy, poor appetite, and excessive sweating. He claimed to have consumed unpasteurized goat's milk that he had also sold to the public. Tests were negative for tropical diseases (i.e., dengue fever, malaria, leptospirosis and scrub typhus) and blood culture showed no growth. Based on epidemiological clues, Brucella serology was ordered and returned positive. Over a period of 1 year, 79 patients who had consumed milk bought from the same farm were diagnosed with brucellosis. Two of these patients were workers on the farm. Four laboratory staff had also contracted the disease presumably through handling of the blood samples. The mean duration from onset of symptoms to diagnosis was 53 days with a maximum duration of 210 days. A combination treatment of rifampin and doxycycline for 6 weeks was the first line of treatment in 90.5% of patients. One-third of the patients had sequelae after recovering and 21% had a relapse. We highlight the importance of Brucellosis as a differential diagnosis when a patient has unexplained chronic fever.