Avoiding lead-time bias by estimating stage-specific proportions of cancer and non-cancer deaths.

PURPOSE: Understanding how stage at cancer diagnosis influences cause of death, an endpoint that is not susceptible to lead-time bias, can inform population-level outcomes of cancer screening. METHODS: Using data from 17 US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries for 1,154,515 persons aged 50-84 years at cancer diagnosis in 2006-2010, we evaluated proportional causes of death by cancer type and uniformly classified stage, following or extrapolating all patients until death through 2020. RESULTS: Most cancer patients diagnosed at stages I-II did not go on to die from their index cancer, whereas most patients diagnosed at stage IV did. For patients diagnosed with any cancer at stages I-II, an estimated 26% of deaths were due to the index cancer, 63% due to non-cancer causes, and 12% due to a subsequent primary (non-index) cancer. In contrast, for patients diagnosed with any stage IV cancer, 85% of deaths were attributed to the index cancer, with 13% non-cancer and 2% non-index-cancer deaths. Index cancer mortality from stages I-II cancer was proportionally lowest for thyroid, melanoma, uterus, prostate, and breast, and highest for pancreas, liver, esophagus, lung, and stomach. CONCLUSION: Across all cancer types, the percentage of patients who went on to die from their cancer was over three times greater when the cancer was diagnosed at stage IV than stages I-II. As mortality patterns are not influenced by lead-time bias, these data suggest that earlier detection is likely to improve outcomes across cancer types, including those currently unscreened.

Body mass index and body shape before treatment and nasopharyngeal carcinoma prognosis: A population-based patient cohort study in southern China.

A concern of reverse causation exists about the association between nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) prognosis and body mass index (BMI) at diagnosis, while the prognostic impact of BMI measured years before diagnosis is unknown. Therefore, we investigated associations of prediagnosis and pretreatment BMI and body shape on NPC mortality. From a population-based patient cohort in southern China between 2010 and 2013, we included 2526 incident NPC cases with prospective follow-up through 2018. We assessed the associations of BMI and body shape at age 20 years, 10 years before diagnosis, and at diagnosis with NPC mortality, combining strategies of stratification and statistical adjustment to minimize reverse causation. We observed 25% lower all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.64-0.89) and 25% lower NPC-specific mortality (HR 0.75, 95% CI: 0.61-0.91) among overweight vs normal-weight NPC cases at diagnosis. Lean body shapes 1 and 2 at diagnosis were associated with 68% and 23% higher all-cause mortality, respectively, compared to normal body shape 3. No effect modification by cancer stage was detected for associations with all-cause or NPC-specific mortality. Associations with BMI and body shape 10 years before diagnosis were similar but attenuated, while body size and shape at age 20 were not associated with mortality. Being overweight at diagnosis decreased mortality, and thinner body shape increased mortality, compared to normal weight/body shape. These associations may be due to poorer nutrition and treatment intolerance, resulting in treatment discontinuation and worse survival outcomes.

Pre-diagnostic anti-EBV antibodies and primary liver cancer risk: a population-based nested case-control study in southern China.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to investigate associations between pre-diagnostic anti-Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) antibodies, including interactions with hepatitis B virus (HBV), and risk of primary liver cancer in southern China. METHODS: In a population-based nested case-control study, we measured pre-diagnostic immunoglobulin A (IgA) against EBV nuclear antigen 1 (EBNA1) and viral capsid antigen (VCA) in 125 primary liver cancer cases and 2077 matched controls. We also explored the interaction between HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) and anti-EBV antibodies. RESULTS: Participants with positive EBNA1-IgA, positive VCA-IgA or single-positive anti-EBV antibodies had two-fold odds of developing liver cancer, compared with seronegative subjects. The odds ratios (ORs) between the relative optical density of EBNA1-IgA and VCA-IgA and primary cancer, controlling for age and HBsAg, were 1.59 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.17, 2.14) and 1.60 (95% CI: 1.07, 2.41), respectively. Subjects with both HBsAg and anti-EBV antibody seropositivity were at 50-fold increased risk compared with those negative for both biomarkers (OR: 50.67, 95% CI: 18.28, 140.46), yielding a relative excess risk due to interaction of 30.81 (95% CI: 3.42, 114.93). CONCLUSION: Pre-diagnostic seropositivity for EBNA1-IgA and/or VCA-IgA was positively associated with primary liver cancer risk, especially in combination with HBsAg positivity. EBV may interact with HBV in the development of primary liver cancer, and anti-EBV antibodies might be potential biomarkers for primary liver cancer in this high-risk population.

EBV antibody and gastric cancer risk: a population-based nested case-control study in southern China.

BACKGROUND: We aim to clarify the controversial associations between EBV-related antibodies and gastric cancer risk. METHODS: We analysed the associations between serological Epstein-Barr nuclear antigen 1 immunoglobulin A (EBNA1-IgA) and viral capsid antigen immunoglobulin A (VCA-IgA) by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and the risk of gastric cancer in a nested case-control study originated from a population-based nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) screening cohort in Zhongshan, a city of southern China, including 18 gastric cancer cases and 444 controls. Conditional logistic regression was used to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: All the sera of cases were sampled before diagnosis and the median time interval was 3.04 (range: 0.04, 7.59) years. Both increased relative optical density (rOD) values of EBNA1-IgA and VCA-IgA were associated with higher risks of gastric cancer with age adjusted ORs of 1.99 (95%CI: 1.07, 3.70) and 2.64 (95%CI: 1.33, 5.23), respectively. Each participant was further classified as high or medium/low risk based on a combination of two anti-EBV antibody levels. Participants in the high-risk group had substantially higher odds of developing gastric cancer than that in the medium/low risk group with an age adjusted OR of 6.53 (95%CI: 1.69, 25.26). CONCLUSIONS: Our research reveals positive associations between EBNA1-IgA and VCA-IgA and gastric cancer risk in southern China. We thus postulate that EBNA1-IgA and VCA-IgA might appear to be potential biomarkers for gastric cancer. More research to further validate the results among diverse populations and investigate its underlying biological mechanism is needed.

Multistage carcinogenesis: Impact of age, genetic, and environmental factors on the incidence of malignant mesothelioma.

The current paradigm of carcinogenesis as a cellular evolutionary process driven by mutations of a few critical driver genes has immediate logical implications for the epidemiology of cancer. These include the impact of age on cancer risk, the role played by inherited tumor predisposition syndromes, and the interaction of genetics and environmental exposures on cancer risk. In this paper, we explore the following logical epidemiological consequences of carcinogenesis as a clonal process of mutation accumulation, with special emphasis on asbestos-related cancers, specifically malignant mesothelioma:1 All cancers, including mesothelioma, can and do occur spontaneously, i.e., in the absence of exposure to any environmental carcinogens. 2. Age is an important determinant of cancer risk, with or without exposure to environmental carcinogens. 3. Genetic tumor predisposition syndromes, such as the BAP1 syndrome, increase enormously the risk of cancer even in the absence of exposure to environmental carcinogens. We illustrate these concepts by applying a multistage clonal expansion model to U.S. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registry data for pleural and peritoneal malignant mesotheliomas in 1975-2018.

Systematic literature review of the epidemiology of glyphosate and neurological outcomes.

PURPOSE: Human health risk assessments of glyphosate have focused on animal toxicology data for determining neurotoxic potential. Human epidemiological studies have not yet been systematically reviewed for glyphosate neurotoxicity hazard identification. The objective of this systematic literature review was to summarize the available epidemiology of glyphosate exposure and neurological outcomes in humans. METHODS: As of December 2021, 25 eligible epidemiological studies of glyphosate exposure and neurological endpoints were identified and assessed for five quality dimensions using guidance from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Studies that assessed personal use of glyphosate were prioritized, whereas those assessing indirect exposure (other than personal use) were rated as low quality, since biomonitoring data indicate that indirect metrics of glyphosate exposure almost always equate to non-detectable glyphosate doses. RESULTS: Overall, the scientific evidence on glyphosate and neurotoxicity in humans is sparse and methodologically limited, based on nine included epidemiological studies of neurodegenerative outcomes (two high quality), five studies of neurobehavioral outcomes (two high quality), six studies of neurodevelopmental outcomes (none high quality), and five studies of other and mixed neurological outcomes (one high quality). The five high-quality studies showed no association between glyphosate use and risk of depression, Parkinson disease, or peripheral nerve conduction velocity. Results were mixed among the eight moderate-quality studies, which did not demonstrate consistent associations with any neurological endpoints or categories. Low-quality studies were considered uninformative about possible neurotoxic effects due primarily to questionable assessments of indirect exposure. CONCLUSIONS: No association has been demonstrated between glyphosate and any neurological outcomes in humans. To move the state of science forward, epidemiological studies should focus on scenarios involving direct and frequent use of glyphosate while collecting information on validated health outcomes, concomitant agricultural exposures, and relevant personal characteristics.

Occupational exposures and risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in a high-risk area: A population-based case-control study.

BACKGROUND: The potential role of occupational exposures in the development of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) remains unclear, particularly in high-incidence areas. METHODS: The authors conducted a population-based case-control study, consisting of 2514 incident NPC cases and 2586 randomly selected population controls, in southern China from 2010 to 2014. Occupational history and other covariates were self-reported using a questionnaire. Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the risk of NPC associated with occupational exposures. Restricted cubic splines were used to evaluate potentially nonlinear duration-response relations. RESULTS: Individuals who had exposure to occupational dusts (OR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.26-1.68), chemical vapors (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.17-1.61), exhausts/smokes (OR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.25-1.60), or acids/alkalis (OR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.30-1.89) in the workplace had an increased NPC risk compared with those who were unexposed. Risk estimates for all 4 categories of occupational exposures appeared to linearly increase with increasing duration. Within these categories, occupational exposure to 14 subtypes of agents conferred significantly higher risks of NPC, with ORs ranging from 1.30 to 2.29, including dust from metals, textiles, cement, or coal; vapor from formaldehyde, organic solvents, or dyes; exhaust or smoke from diesel, firewood, asphalt/tar, vehicles, or welding; and sulfuric acid, hydrochloric acid, nitric acid, and concentrated alkali/ammonia. CONCLUSIONS: Occupational exposures to dusts, chemical vapors, exhausts/smokes, or acids/alkalis are associated with an excess risk of NPC. If the current results are causal, then the amelioration of workplace conditions might alleviate the burden of NPC in endemic areas. LAY SUMMARY: The role of occupational exposures in the development of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) remains unclear, particularly in high-incidence areas. The authors conducted a population-based study with 2514 incident NPC cases and 2586 population controls in southern China and observed that occupational exposures were associated with an increased risk of NPC. Duration-response trends were observed with increasing duration of exposure. These findings provide new evidence supporting an etiologic role of occupational exposures for NPC in a high-incidence region.

Prevalence of Viremic Hepatitis C Virus Infection by Age, Race/Ethnicity, and Birthplace and Disease Awareness Among Viremic Persons in the United States, 1999-2016.

BACKGROUND: Athough curative therapy is now available for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the United States, it is not clear whether all affected persons have been diagnosed and/or linked to care. METHODS: This cross-sectional study utilized data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999-2016) and included 46 465 nonincarcerated and noninstitutionalized participants. RESULTS: Viremic HCV prevalence decreased from 1.32% in 1999-2004 to 0.80% in 2011-2016, although most of the decrease occurred in US-born whites and blacks but not the foreign-born or those born after 1985. In 2011-2016, approximately 1.90 million US adults remained viremic with HCV, and 0.33 million were at higher risk for advanced fibrosis, but only 49.8% were aware of their HCV infection, with higher disease awareness in those with health insurance coverage and US-born persons. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of viremic HCV has decreased in recent years among US born whites and blacks but not in other race/ethnicities and foreign-born persons and birth cohort born after 1985. Less than half of the viremic population was aware of having HCV infection. Improved HCV screening and linkage to care are needed, especially for the uninsured, foreign-born, birth cohort after 1985 and certain ethnic minorities.

Evaluation of the antibody response to the EBV proteome in EBV-associated classical Hodgkin lymphoma.

The humoral immune response to Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) in classical Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) stratified by EBV tumor status is unclear. We examined IgG and IgA antibody responses against 202 protein sequences representing 86 EBV proteins using a microarray and sera from 139 EBV-positive cHL cases, 70 EBV-negative cHL cases and 141 population-based controls frequency matched to EBV-positive cHL cases on sex and age by area (UK, Denmark and Sweden). We leveraged existing data on the proportion of circulating B-cells infected by EBV and levels of serum CCL17, a chemokine secreted by cHL tumor cells, from a subset of the cHL cases in the UK. Total IgG but not IgA response level was significantly different between EBV-positive cHL cases and controls. The distinct serological response included significant elevations in 16 IgG antibodies and 2 IgA antibodies, with odds ratioshighest vs. lowest tertile > 3 observed for the following EBV proteins: LMP1 (oncogene), BcLF1 (VCAp160, two variants) and BBLF1 (two variants). Our cHL IgG signature correlated with the proportion of circulating EBV-infected B-cells, but not serum CCL17 levels. We observed no differences in the anti-EBV antibody profile between EBV-negative cHL cases and controls. BdRF1(VCAp40)-IgG and BZLF1(Zta)-IgG were identified as the serological markers best able to distinguish EBV-positive from EBV-negative cHL tumors. Our results support the hypothesis that differences in the EBV antibody profile are specific to patients with EBV-positive cHL and are not universally observed as part of a systematically dysregulated immune response present in all cHL cases.

Prevalence of Undetectable Vaccine-Induced Immunity Against Hepatitis B Virus in US Adults at High Risk for Infection.

In 2015, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported a substantial increase in the number of acute hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections in the United States. Although national guidelines recommend vaccination of adults at high risk for HBV infection, the prevalence of undetectable immunity (i.e., susceptibility) in this population remains unknown. In this study, we analyzed a nationally representative sample using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to evaluate the prevalence, trend, and predictors of undetectable vaccine-induced antibodies against HBV surface antigen (<10 mIU/mL) among high-risk adults from 2003-2014. Among adults at high risk for HBV infection, the prevalence of undetectable immunity decreased from 83.2% in 2003-2004 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 81.3-85.0) to 69.4% (about 64 million) in 2013-2014 (95% CI: 66.0-72.6). The prevalence decreased significantly in individuals with multiple sex partners or sexually transmitted disease and in pregnant women. However, there were no significant changes in men who have sex with men (MSMs), intravenous drug users (IDUs), hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected and patients with diabetes, and those with elevated aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase (AST/ALT). Mexican Americans had the highest prevalence of undetectable immunity (77.6%, 95% CI: 72.6-81.9), followed by non-Hispanic whites (70.1%, 95% CI: 66.9-73.1). Older age, lower socioeconomic status, and having at least 1 high-risk factor were associated with a higher risk of undetectable immunity, whereas an increased risk among the foreign-born disappeared after multivariable adjustment. Conclusion: Approximately 64 million high-risk adults in the United States remain susceptible to HBV infection, especially MSMs, IDUs, diabetics, HCV patients, and populations with elevated AST/ALT. To eliminate HBV, efforts should be made to increase screening and vaccination in high-risk adults.

Smoking, air pollution, and lung cancer risk in the Nurses' Health Study cohort: time-dependent confounding and effect modification.

The proportional hazards (PH) model is commonly used in epidemiology despite the stringent assumption of proportionality of hazards over time. We previously showed, using detailed simulation data, that the impact of a modest risk factor cannot be estimated reliably using the PH model in the presence of confounding by a strong, time-dependent risk factor. Here, we examine the same and related issues using a real dataset. Among 97,303 women in the prospective Nurses' Health Study cohort from 1994 through 2010, we used PH regression to investigate how effect estimates for cigarette smoking are affected by increasingly detailed specification of time-dependent exposure characteristics. We also examined how effect estimates for fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a modest risk factor, are affected by finer control for time-dependent confounding by smoking. The objective of this analysis is not to present a credible estimate of the impact of PM2.5 on lung cancer risk, but to show that estimates based on the PH model are inherently unreliable. The best-fitting model for cigarette smoking and lung cancer included pack-years, duration, time since cessation, and an age-by-pack-years interaction, indicating that the hazard ratio (HR) for pack-years was significantly modified by age. In the fully adjusted best-fitting model for smoking including pack-years, the HR per 10-µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was 1.06 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.90, 1.25); the HR for PM2.5 in the full cohort ranged between 1.02 and 1.10 in models with other smoking adjustments, indicating a residual confounding effect of smoking. The HR for PM2.5 was statistically significant only among former smokers when adjusting for smoking pack-years (HR = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.00, 1.82 in the best-fitting smoking model), but not in models adjusting for smoking duration and average packs (pack-years divided by duration). The association between cumulative smoking and lung cancer is modified by age, and improved model fit is obtained by including multiple time-varying components of smoking history. The association with PM2.5 is residually confounded by smoking and modified by smoking status. These findings underscore limitations of the PH model and emphasize the advantages of directly estimating hazard functions to characterize time-varying exposure and risk. The hazard function, not the relative hazard, is the fundamental measure of risk in a population. As a consequence, the use of time-dependent PH models does not address crucial issues introduced by temporal factors in epidemiological data.

Chinese nonmedicinal herbal diet and risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma: A population-based case-control study.

BACKGROUND: An association between a nonmedicinal herbal diet and nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) has often been hypothesized but never thoroughly investigated. METHODS: This study enrolled a total of 2469 patients with incident NPC and 2559 population controls from parts of Guangdong and Guangxi Provinces in southern China between 2010 and 2014. Questionnaire information was collected on the intake of traditional herbal tea and herbal soup as well as the specific herbal plants used in soups and other potentially confounding lifestyle factors. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the NPC risk in association with herbal tea and soup intake. RESULTS: Ever consumption of herbal tea was not associated with NPC risk (OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.91-1.17). An inverse association was observed for NPC among ever drinkers of herbal soup (OR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.67-0.90) but without any monotonic trend with an increasing frequency or duration of herbal soup consumption. Inverse associations with NPC risk were detected with 9 herbal plants used in herbal soup, including Ziziphus jujuba, Fructus lycii, Codonopsis pilosula, Astragalus membranaceus, Semen coicis, Smilax glabra, Phaseolus calcaratus, Morinda officinalis, and Atractylodes macrocephala (OR range, 0.31-0.79). CONCLUSIONS: Consuming herbal soups including specific plants, but not herbal tea, was inversely associated with NPC. If replicated, these results might provide potential for NPC prevention in endemic areas.

Changes in Renal Function in Patients With Chronic HBV Infection Treated With Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate vs Entecavir.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: It is unclear whether drugs used to treat chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection cause significant renal impairment. We compare adjusted mean estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR; mL/min/1.73 m2) of patients with chronic HBV infection treated with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) vs patients treated with entecavir. METHODS: We performed a retrospective study of patients with chronic HBV infections treated with TDF (n = 239) or entecavir (n = 171), from 2000 through 2016, followed for a mean time of 43-46 months. Levels of serum creatinine were measured ≥12 months while patients received treatment. Patients did not have prior exposure to adefovir or HCV, HDV, or HIV co-infection. We performed propensity score matching (PSM) for age, sex, presence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, baseline eGFR, cirrhosis, and follow-up duration. We performed multivariate generalized linear modeling, adjusting for cirrhosis, diabetes, and hypertension, to estimate adjusted mean eGFR for matched and unmatched cohorts. Cox regression was used to identify predictors of renal impairment. RESULTS: eGFRs were ≥60, after PSM, in 116 patients given entecavir and in 116 patients given TDF; eGFRs were <60 in 32 patients given entecavir and 26 patients given TDF. Multivariate generalized linear modeling of the unmatched overall and <60 eGFR cohorts revealed significantly lower adjusted mean eGFRs in patients given TDF (all P < .001). However, in the eGFR ≥60 PSM cohort, the adjusted mean eGFR was similar between patients receiving either treatment. In Cox regression analysis, TDF was not associated with mild or moderate renal impairment compared with entecavir. CONCLUSION: In a retrospective study of patients with chronic HBV infections treated with TDF vs entecavir, we found that TDF was not associated with higher risk of worsening renal function during short- or intermediate-term follow-up periods, among patients without significant renal impairment. Additional studies, with longer follow-up periods, are needed because treatment for chronic HBV infection is generally long term or life-long. For patients with baseline renal impairment, significant renal decline was among patients given TDF compared to patients given entecavir.

Past and Recent Salted Fish and Preserved Food Intakes Are Weakly Associated with Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Risk in Adults in Southern China.

BACKGROUND: Chinese-style salted fish intake in early life is considered an established risk factor for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). However, results for adult intakes of salted fish and preserved foods are inconsistent. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to ascertain the relations of Chinese-style hard and soft salted fish and preserved food intakes with NPC risk. METHODS: We conducted a population-based case-control study in southern China with 2554 NPC cases identified through a rapid case ascertainment system and 2648 healthy controls, frequency-matched on age, sex, and area. Subjects (aged 20-74 y) were interviewed via a food-frequency questionnaire, including information on portion size. Data were also collected on alcohol consumption and potential confounders. Food intake was grouped into 3-5 energy-adjusted intake levels during adulthood (10 y prior) and adolescence (16-18 y). For childhood (at age 10 y), intake frequency of selected food items was collected. Multivariate-adjusted ORs with 95% CIs were estimated via logistic regression. RESULTS: We found no association between NPC and intake of hard Chinese-style salted fish during adulthood, and an increased risk at the highest level of intake during adolescence (OR: 1.19; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.39). In contrast, we found a decreased risk for the middle intake level of soft salted fish during adulthood (OR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.57, 0.81) and adolescence (OR: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.59, 0.85). Preserved foods showed contrasting risk profiles, e.g., the highest adult intake level of salted egg (OR: 1.51; 95% CI: 1.22, 1.87) and fermented black beans (OR: 0.67; 95% CI: 0.56, 0.80). Associations with NPC were weaker than previously reported, e.g., for weekly childhood intake of salted fish (OR: 1.56; 95% CI: 1.24, 1.97). CONCLUSIONS: Hard and soft salted fish have different risk profiles. Salted fish and other preserved foods were at most weak risk factors for NPC in all periods and may play a smaller role in NPC occurrence than previously thought.

Dose-response for assessing the cancer risk of inorganic arsenic in drinking water: the scientific basis for use of a threshold approach.

The biologic effects of inorganic arsenic predominantly involve reaction of the trivalent forms with sulfhydryl groups in critical proteins in target cells, potentially leading to various toxicologic events including cancer. This mode of action is a threshold process, requiring sufficient concentrations of trivalent arsenic to disrupt normal cellular function. Nevertheless, cancer risk assessments for inorganic arsenic have traditionally utilized various dose-response models that extrapolate risks from high doses assuming low-dose linearity without a threshold. We present here an approach for a cancer risk assessment for inorganic arsenic in drinking water that involves considerations of this threshold process. Extensive investigations in mode of action analysis, in vitro studies (>0.1 µM), and in animal studies (>2 mg/L in drinking water or 2 mg/kg of diet), collectively indicate a threshold basis for inorganic arsenic-related cancers. These studies support a threshold for the effects of arsenic in humans of 50-100 µg/L in drinking water (about 65 µg/L). We then evaluate the epidemiology of cancers of the urinary bladder, lung, and skin and non-cancer skin changes for consistency with this calculated value, focusing on studies involving low-level exposures to inorganic arsenic primarily in drinking water (approximately <150 µg/L). Based on the relevant epidemiological studies with individual-level data, a threshold level for inorganic arsenic in the drinking water for these cancers is estimated to be around 100 µg/L, with strong evidence that it is between 50 and 150 µg/L, consistent with the value calculated based on mechanistic, in vitro and in vivo investigations. This evaluation provides an alternative mode of action-based approach for assessing health-protective levels for oral arsenic exposure based on the collective in vitro, in vivo, and human evidence rather than the use of a linear low-dose extrapolation based on default assumptions and theories.

Management of hepatitis B infected pregnant women: a cross-sectional study of obstetricians.

BACKGROUND: Our study aims to describe how obstetricians manage pregnant women infected with chronic hepatitis B in a region with a large high-risk population. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study among practicing obstetricians in Santa Clara County, California. All obstetricians practicing in Santa Clara County were invited to participate in the study. Obstetricians were recruited in person or by mail to complete a voluntary, multiple choice survey on hepatitis B (HBV). Survey questions assessed basic HBV knowledge and obstetricians' self-reported clinical practices of the management of HBV-infected pregnant women. Pooled descriptive analyses were calculated for the cohort, as well as, correlation coefficients to evaluate the association between reported clinical practices and hepatitis B knowledge. RESULTS: Among 138 obstetricians who completed the survey, 94% reported routinely testing pregnant women for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) with each pregnancy. Only 60.9% routinely advised HBsAg-positive patients to seek specialist evaluation for antiviral treatment and monitoring and fewer than half (48.6%) routinely provided them with HBV information. While most respondents recognized the potential complications of chronic HBV (94.2%), only 21% were aware that chronic HBV carries a 25% risk of liver related death when left unmonitored and untreated, and only 25% were aware of the high prevalence of chronic HBV in the foreign-born Asian, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander population. Obstetricians aware of the high risk of perinatal HBV transmission were more likely to test pregnant women for HBV DNA or hepatitis B e-antigen in HBV-infected women (r = 0.18, p = 0.033). Obstetricians who demonstrated knowledge of the long-term consequences of untreated HBV infection were no more likely to refer HBV-infected women to specialists for care (r = 0.02, p = 0.831). CONCLUSION: Our study identified clear gaps in the practice patterns of obstetricians that can be readily addressed to enhance the care they provide to HBV-infected pregnant women.

Reanalysis of Diesel Engine Exhaust and Lung Cancer Mortality in the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study Cohort Using Alternative Exposure Estimates and Radon Adjustment.

The Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS) (United States, 1947-1997) reported positive associations between diesel engine exhaust exposure, estimated as respirable elemental carbon (REC), and lung cancer mortality. This reanalysis of the DEMS cohort used an alternative estimate of REC exposure incorporating historical data on diesel equipment, engine horsepower, ventilation rates, and declines in particulate matter emissions per horsepower. Associations with cumulative REC and average REC intensity using the alternative REC estimate and other exposure estimates were generally attenuated compared with original DEMS REC estimates. Most findings were statistically nonsignificant; control for radon exposure substantially weakened associations with the original and alternative REC estimates. No association with original or alternative REC estimates was detected among miners who worked exclusively underground. Positive associations were detected among limestone workers, whereas no association with REC or radon was found among workers in the other 7 mines. The differences in results based on alternative exposure estimates, control for radon, and stratification by worker location or mine type highlight areas of uncertainty in the DEMS data.

Medical History, Medication Use, and Risk of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma.

Because persistent inflammation may render the nasopharyngeal mucosa susceptible to carcinogenesis, chronic ear-nose-throat (ENT) disease and its treatment might influence the risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Existing evidence is, however, inconclusive and often based on methodologically suboptimal epidemiologic studies. In a population-based case-control study in southern China, we enrolled 2,532 persons with NPC and 2,597 controls, aged 20-74 years, from 2010 to 2014. Odds ratios were estimated for associations between NPC risk and history of ENT and related medications. Any history of chronic ENT disease was associated with a 34% increased risk of NPC. Similarly, use of nasal drops or aspirin was associated with approximately doubled risk of NPC. However, in secondary analyses restricted to chronic ENT diseases and related medication use at least 5 years prior to diagnosis/interview, most results were statistically nonsignificant, except a history of uncured ENT diseases, untreated nasal polyps, and earlier age at first diagnosis of ENT disease and first or most recent aspirin use. Overall, these findings suggest that ENT disease and related medication use are most likely early indications rather than causes of NPC, although the possibility of a modestly increased NPC risk associated with these diseases and related medications cannot be excluded.

An Assessment of the Cox Proportional Hazards Regression Model for Epidemiologic Studies.

The basic assumptions of the Cox proportional hazards regression model are rarely questioned. This study addresses whether hazard ratio, i.e., relative risk (RR), estimates using the Cox model are biased when these assumptions are violated. We investigated also the dependence of RR estimates on temporal exposure characteristics, and how inadequate control for a strong, time-dependent confounder affects RRs for a modest, correlated risk factor. In a realistic cohort of 500,000 adults constructed using the National Cancer Institute Smoking History Generator, we used the Cox model with increasing control of smoking to examine the impact on RRs for smoking and a correlated covariate X. The smoking-associated RR was strongly modified by age. Pack-years of smoking did not sufficiently control for its effects; simultaneous control for effect modification by age and time-dependent cumulative exposure, exposure duration, and time since cessation improved model fit. Even then, residual confounding was evident in RR estimates for covariate X, for which spurious RRs ranged from 0.980 to 1.017 per unit increase. Use of the Cox model to control for a time-dependent strong risk factor yields unreliable RR estimates unless detailed, time-varying information is incorporated in analyses. Notwithstanding, residual confounding may bias estimated RRs for a modest risk factor.