What is the economic benefit of annual COVID-19 vaccination from the adult individual perspective?

BACKGROUND: With COVID-19 vaccination no longer mandated by many businesses/organizations, it is now up to individuals to decide whether to get any new boosters/updated vaccines going forward. METHODS: We developed a Markov model representing the potential clinical/economic outcomes from an individual perspective in the United States of getting versus not getting an annual COVID-19 vaccine. RESULTS: For an 18-49-year-old, getting vaccinated at its current price ($60) can save the individual on average $30-$603 if the individual is uninsured and $4-$437 if the individual has private insurance, as long as the starting vaccine efficacy against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is ≥50% and the weekly risk of getting infected is ≥0.2%, corresponding to an individual interacting with 9 other people in a day under Winter 2023-2024 Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant conditions with an average infection prevalence of 10%. For a 50-64-year-old, these cost-savings increase to $111-$1,278 and $119-$1,706, for someone without and with insurance, respectively. The risk threshold increases to ≥0.4% (interacting with 19 people/day), when the individual has 13.4% pre-existing protection against infection (e.g., vaccinated 9 months earlier). CONCLUSION: There is both clinical and economic incentive for the individual to continue to get vaccinated against COVID-19 each year.

ENAP1 retrains seed germination via H3K9 acetylation mediated positive feedback regulation of ABI5.

Histone acetylation is involved in the regulation of seed germination. The transcription factor ABI5 plays an essential role in ABA- inhibited seed germination. However, the molecular mechanism of how ABI5 and histone acetylation coordinate to regulate gene expression during seed germination is still ambiguous. Here, we show that ENAP1 interacts with ABI5 and they co-bind to ABA responsive genes including ABI5 itself. The hypersensitivity to ABA of ENAP1ox seeds germination is recovered by the abi5 null mutation. ABA enhances H3K9Ac enrichment in the promoter regions as well as the transcription of target genes co-bound by ENAP1 and ABI5, which requires both ENAP1 and ABI5. ABI5 gene is directly regulated by ENAP1 and ABI5. In the enap1 deficient mutant, H3K9Ac enrichment and the binding activity of ABI5 in its own promoter region, along with ABI5 transcription and protein levels are all reduced; while in the abi5-1 mutant, the H3K9Ac enrichment and ENAP1 binding activity in ABI5 promoter are decreased, suggesting that ENAP1 and ABI5 function together to regulate ABI5- mediated positive feedback regulation. Overall, our research reveals a new molecular mechanism by which ENAP1 regulates H3K9 acetylation and mediates the positive feedback regulation of ABI5 to inhibit seed germination.

A Systems Map of the Challenges of Climate Communication.

Over the past sixty years, scientists have been warning about climate change and its impacts on human health, but evidence suggests that many may not be heeding these concerns. This raises the question of whether new communication approaches are needed to overcome the unique challenges of communicating what people can do to slow or reverse climate change. To better elucidate the challenges of communicating about the links between human activity, climate change and its effects, and identify potential solutions, we developed a systems map of the factors and processes involved based on systems mapping sessions with climate change and communication experts. The systems map revealed 27 communication challenges such as "Limited information on how individual actions contribute to collective human activity," "Limited information on how present activity leads to long-term effects," and "Difficult to represent and communicate complex relationships." The systems map also revealed several themes among the identified challenges that exist in communicating about climate change, including a lack of available data and integrated databases, climate change disciplines working in silos, a need for a lexicon that is easily understood by the public, and the need for new communication strategies to describe processes that take time to manifest.

The Need for Systems Approaches for Precision Communications in Public Health.

A major challenge in communicating health-related information is the involvement of multiple complex systems from the creation of the information to the sources and channels of dispersion to the information users themselves. To date, public health communications approaches have often not adequately accounted for the complexities of these systems to the degree necessary to have maximum impact. The virality of COVID-19 misinformation and disinformation has brought to light the need to consider these system complexities more extensively. Unaided, it is difficult for humans to see and fully understand complex systems. Luckily, there are a range of systems approaches and methods, such as systems mapping and systems modeling, that can help better elucidate complex systems. Using these methods to better characterize the various systems involved in communicating public health-related information can lead to the development of more tailored, precise, and proactive communications. Proceeding in an iterative manner to help design, implement, and adjust such communications strategies can increase impact and leave less opportunity for misinformation and disinformation to spread.

HLA-A*03 and response to immune checkpoint blockade in cancer: an epidemiological biomarker study.

BACKGROUND: Predictive biomarkers could allow more precise use of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) in treating advanced cancers. Given the central role of HLA molecules in immunity, variation at the HLA loci could differentially affect the response to ICIs. The aim of this epidemiological study was to determine the effect of HLA-A*03 as a biomarker for predicting response to immunotherapy. METHODS: In this epidemiological study, we investigated the clinical outcomes (overall survival, progression free survival, and objective response rate) after treatment for advanced cancer in eight cohorts of patients: three observational cohorts of patients with various types of advanced tumours (the Memorial Sloan Kettering Integrated Mutation Profiling of Actionable Cancer Targets [MSK-IMPACT] cohort, the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute [DFCI] Profile cohort, and The Cancer Genome Atlas) and five clinical trials of patients with advanced bladder cancer (JAVELIN Solid Tumour) or renal cell carcinoma (CheckMate-009, CheckMate-010, CheckMate-025, and JAVELIN Renal 101). In total, these cohorts included 3335 patients treated with various ICI agents (anti-PD-1, anti-PD-L1, and anti-CTLA-4 inhibitors) and 10 917 patients treated with non-ICI cancer-directed therapeutic approaches. We initially modelled the association of HLA amino-acid variation with overall survival in the MSK-IMPACT discovery cohort, followed by a detailed analysis of the association between HLA-A*03 and clinical outcomes in MSK-IMPACT, with replication in the additional cohorts (two further observational cohorts and five clinical trials). FINDINGS: HLA-A*03 was associated in an additive manner with reduced overall survival after ICI treatment in the MSK-IMPACT cohort (HR 1·48 per HLA-A*03 allele [95% CI 1·20-1·82], p=0·00022), the validation DFCI Profile cohort (HR 1·22 per HLA-A*03 allele, 1·05-1·42; p=0·0097), and in the JAVELIN Solid Tumour clinical trial for bladder cancer (HR 1·36 per HLA-A*03 allele, 1·01-1·85; p=0·047). The HLA-A*03 effect was observed across ICI agents and tumour types, but not in patients treated with alternative therapies. Patients with HLA-A*03 had shorter progression-free survival in the pooled patient population from the three CheckMate clinical trials of nivolumab for renal cell carcinoma (HR 1·31, 1·01-1·71; p=0·044), but not in those receiving control (everolimus) therapies. Objective responses were observed in none of eight HLA-A*03 homozygotes in the ICI group (compared with 59 [26·6%] of 222 HLA-A*03 non-carriers and 13 (17·1%) of 76 HLA-A*03 heterozygotes). HLA-A*03 was associated with shorter progression-free survival in patients receiving ICI in the JAVELIN Renal 101 randomised clinical trial for renal cell carcinoma (avelumab plus axitinib; HR 1·59 per HLA-A*03 allele, 1·16-2·16; p=0·0036), but not in those receiving control (sunitinib) therapy. Objective responses were recorded in one (12·5%) of eight HLA-A*03 homozygotes in the ICI group (compared with 162 [63·8%] of 254 HLA-A*03 non-carriers and 40 [55·6%] of 72 HLA-A*03 heterozygotes). HLA-A*03 was associated with impaired outcome in meta-analysis of all 3335 patients treated with ICI at genome-wide significance (p=2·01 × 10-8) with no evidence of heterogeneity in effect (I2 0%, 95% CI 0-0·76) INTERPRETATION: HLA-A*03 is a predictive biomarker of poor response to ICI. Further evaluation of HLA-A*03 is warranted in randomised trials. HLA-A*03 carriage could be considered in decisions to initiate ICI in patients with cancer. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health, Merck KGaA, and Pfizer.

Phase I/Ib dose-escalation study of avelumab in Chinese patients with advanced solid tumors.

Aim: Data for avelumab (anti-PD-L1 antibody) in Chinese patients are limited. Patients & methods: Phase I/Ib, open-label, dose-escalation study of Chinese patients with advanced solid tumors. Primary study objectives were to evaluate the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) and pharmacokinetics (PK) of avelumab. Results: 24 patients received avelumab 3 mg/kg every 2 weeks (Q2W; n = 3), 10 mg/kg Q2W (n = 7), 20 mg/kg Q2W (n = 6) or 10 mg/kg weekly for 12 weeks and then Q2W thereafter (n = 8). MTD was not reached. Avelumab exposure was increased in higher dose groups. Partial responses occurred in two patients (confirmed in one patient); best overall response was stable disease in nine patients. Conclusion: Data for avelumab in Chinese patients with advanced solid tumors were consistent with previous global studies.

Avelumab is a form of medicine that falls under the category of immunotherapy. This means that it can help the immune system find and destroy cancer cells. In this study, researchers looked at the safety of avelumab in a small group of Chinese people with different types of cancer. Researchers also looked at blood levels of avelumab after treatment. Different doses of avelumab were given to different groups of people. Overall, study results for avelumab in Chinese people were similar to results from earlier studies in other countries.  Clinical trial registration: NCT03523390 (ClinicalTrials.gov).

Can subjective symptoms predict objective findings in gastroesophageal reflux disease patients?

INTRODUCTION: Medical therapy is the first-line treatment for gastroesophageal reflux disease, but surgical options are available and shown to be effective when medical management fails. There is no consensus for when a surgical evaluation is indicated. We set out to determine if the GERD-HRQL questionnaire scores correlate to objective findings found in patients undergoing anti-reflux surgery to predict when surgical consultation could be warranted. METHODS: A prospectively gathered database was used for patients undergoing anti-reflux surgery from January 2014 to September 2020. Inclusion criteria required a diagnosis of GERD and comprehensive esophageal workup with the GERD-HRQL questionnaire, EGD, esophageal manometry, and ambulatory pH monitoring. Analysis of the GERD-HRQL scores was compared to objective endpoints to see correlation and predictability. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess relationship between the presence of objective findings and GERD-HRQL questionnaire scores. RESULTS: There were 246 patients meeting inclusion criteria. There was no significant correlation between GERD-HRQL score and DeMeester score (correlation coefficient = 0.23), or presence of a hiatal hernia, regardless of size (p = 0.89). Patients with esophagitis had significantly higher average GERD-HRQL scores compared to those without esophagitis (40.1 ± 18.9 vs 30.4 ± 19.1, p < 0.0001). Patients with a score of 40 or greater had a 42% to 65% probability of having esophagitis versus a score of 30 or less, lowering the chances of having esophagitis to less than 35%. CONCLUSION: Usage of a GERD-HRQL questionnaire score can potentially show the correlation between subjective and objective findings in the workup of a patient for anti-reflux surgery. Specifically, patients with a GERD-HRQL score of 40 or greater have an increased probability of esophagitis compared to those with a score of 30 or less. Using these scores can help referring clinicians identify those patients failing medical therapy and allow for prompt referral for surgical evaluation.

EIN2 mediates direct regulation of histone acetylation in the ethylene response.

Ethylene gas is essential for developmental processes and stress responses in plants. Although the membrane-bound protein EIN2 is critical for ethylene signaling, the mechanism by which the ethylene signal is transduced remains largely unknown. Here we show the levels of H3K14Ac and H3K23Ac are correlated with the levels of EIN2 protein and demonstrate EIN2 C terminus (EIN2-C) is sufficient to rescue the levels of H3K14/23Ac of ein2-5 at the target loci, using CRISPR/dCas9-EIN2-C. Chromatin immunoprecipitation followed by deep sequencing (ChIP-seq) and ChIP-reChIP-seq analyses revealed that EIN2-C associates with histone partially through an interaction with EIN2 nuclear-associated protein1 (ENAP1), which preferentially binds to the genome regions that are associated with actively expressed genes both with and without ethylene treatments. Specifically, in the presence of ethylene, ENAP1-binding regions are more accessible upon the interaction with EIN2, and more EIN3 proteins bind to the loci where ENAP1 is enriched for a quick response. Together, these results reveal EIN2-C is the key factor regulating H3K14Ac and H3K23Ac in response to ethylene and uncover a unique mechanism by which ENAP1 interacts with chromatin, potentially preserving the open chromatin regions in the absence of ethylene; in the presence of ethylene, EIN2 interacts with ENAP1, elevating the levels of H3K14Ac and H3K23Ac, promoting more EIN3 binding to the targets shared with ENAP1 and resulting in a rapid transcriptional regulation.

Avelumab, an anti-PD-L1 antibody, in patients with locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer: a phase 1b JAVELIN Solid Tumor study.

PURPOSE: Agents targeting programmed death receptor 1 (PD-1) or its ligand (PD-L1) have shown antitumor activity in the treatment of metastatic breast cancer (MBC). The aim of this study was to assess the activity of avelumab, a PD-L1 inhibitor, in patients with MBC. METHODS: In a phase 1 trial (JAVELIN Solid Tumor; NCT01772004), patients with MBC refractory to or progressing after standard-of-care therapy received avelumab intravenously 10 mg/kg every 2 weeks. Tumors were assessed every 6 weeks by RECIST v1.1. Adverse events (AEs) were graded by NCI-CTCAE v4.0. Membrane PD-L1 expression was assessed by immunohistochemistry (Dako PD-L1 IHC 73-10 pharmDx). RESULTS: A total of 168 patients with MBC, including 58 patients with triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), were treated with avelumab for 2-50 weeks and followed for 6-15 months. Patients were heavily pretreated with a median of three prior therapies for metastatic or locally advanced disease. Grade ≥ 3 treatment-related AEs occurred in 13.7% of patients, including two treatment-related deaths. The confirmed objective response rate (ORR) was 3.0% overall (one complete response and four partial responses) and 5.2% in patients with TNBC. A trend toward a higher ORR was seen in patients with PD-L1+ versus PD-L1- tumor-associated immune cells in the overall population (16.7% vs. 1.6%) and in the TNBC subgroup (22.2% vs. 2.6%). CONCLUSION: Avelumab showed an acceptable safety profile and clinical activity in a subset of patients with MBC. PD-L1 expression in tumor-associated immune cells may be associated with a higher probability of clinical response to avelumab in MBC.

Avelumab for patients with previously treated metastatic or recurrent non-small-cell lung cancer (JAVELIN Solid Tumor): dose-expansion cohort of a multicentre, open-label, phase 1b trial.

BACKGROUND: Avelumab, a human Ig-G1 monoclonal antibody targeting PD-L1 and approved in the USA for the treatment of metastatic Merkel cell carcinoma, has shown antitumour activity and an acceptable safety profile in patients with advanced solid tumours in a dose-escalation phase 1a trial. In this dose-expansion cohort of that trial, we assess avelumab treatment in a cohort of patients with advanced, platinum-treated non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). METHODS: In this dose-expansion cohort of a multicentre, open-label, phase 1 study, patients with progressive or platinum-resistant metastatic or recurrent NSCLC were enrolled at 58 cancer treatment centres and academic hospitals in the USA. Eligible patients had confirmed stage IIIB or IV NSCLC with squamous or non-squamous histology, measurable disease by Response Evaluation Criteria In Solid Tumors version 1.1 (RECIST v1.1), tumour biopsy or archival sample for biomarker assessment, and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status 0 or 1, among other criteria. Patient selection was not based on PD-L1 expression or expression of other biomarkers, including EGFR or KRAS mutation or ALK translocation status. Patients received infusional avelumab monotherapy 10 mg/kg every 2 weeks until disease progression or toxicity. The primary objective was to assess safety and tolerability. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01772004; enrolment in this cohort is closed and the trial is ongoing. FINDINGS: Between Sept 10, 2013, and June 24, 2014, 184 patients were enrolled and initiated treatment with avelumab. Median follow-up duration was 8·8 months (IQR 7·2-11·9). The most common treatment-related adverse events of any grade were fatigue (46 [25%] of 184 patients), infusion-related reaction (38 [21%]), and nausea (23 [13%]). Grade 3 or worse treatment-related adverse events occurred in 23 (13%) of 184 patients; the most common (occurring in more than two patients) were infusion-related reaction (four [2%] patients) and increased lipase level (three [2%]). 16 (9%) of 184 patients had a serious adverse event related to treatment with avelumab, with infusion-related reaction (in four [2%] patients) and dyspnoea (in two [1%]) occurring in more than one patient. Serious adverse events irrespective of cause occurred in 80 (44%) of 184 patients. Those occurring in more than five patients (≥3%) were dyspnoea (ten patients [5%]), pneumonia (nine [5%]), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (six [3%]). Immune-related treatment-related events occurred in 22 patients (12%). Of 184 patients, 22 (12% [95% CI 8-18]) achieved a confirmed objective response, including one complete response and 21 partial responses. 70 (38%) had stable disease. Overall, 92 (50%) of 184 patients achieved disease control (they had a confirmed response or stable disease as their best overall response). One patient was initially thought to have died from grade 5 radiation pneumonitis during the study; however, this adverse event was subsequently regraded to grade 3 and the death was attributed to disease progression. INTERPRETATION: Avelumab showed an acceptable safety profile and antitumour activity in patients with progressive or treatment-resistant NSCLC, providing a rationale for further studies of avelumab in this disease setting. FUNDING: Merck KGaA and Pfizer.

Avelumab for metastatic or locally advanced previously treated solid tumours (JAVELIN Solid Tumor): a phase 1a, multicohort, dose-escalation trial.

BACKGROUND: Avelumab (MSB0010718C) is a human IgG1 monoclonal antibody that binds to PD-L1, inhibiting its binding to PD-1, which inactivates T cells. We aimed to establish the safety and pharmacokinetics of avelumab in patients with solid tumours while assessing biological correlatives for future development. METHODS: This open-label, single-centre, phase 1a, dose-escalation trial (part of the JAVELIN Solid Tumor trial) assessed four doses of avelumab (1 mg/kg, 3 mg/kg, 10 mg/kg, and 20 mg/kg), with dose-level cohort expansions to provide additional safety, pharmacokinetics, and target occupancy data. This study used a standard 3 + 3 cohort design and assigned patients sequentially at trial entry according to the 3 + 3 dose-escalation algorithm and depending on the number of dose-limiting toxicities during the first 3-week assessment period (the primary endpoint). Patient eligibility criteria included age 18 years or older, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status 0-1, metastatic or locally advanced previously treated solid tumours, and adequate end-organ function. Avelumab was given as a 1-h intravenous infusion every 2 weeks. Patients in the dose-limiting toxicity analysis set were assessed for the primary endpoint of dose-limiting toxicity, and all patients enrolled in the dose-escalation part were assessed for the secondary endpoints of safety (treatment-emergent and treatment-related adverse events according to National Cancer Institute Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 4.0), pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic profiles (immunological effects), best overall response by Response Evaluation Criteria, and antidrug antibody formation. The population for the pharmacokinetic analysis included a subset of patients with rich pharmacokinetic samples from two selected disease-specific expansion cohorts at the same study site who had serum samples obtained at multiple early timepoints. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01772004. Patient recruitment to the dose-escalation part reported here is closed. FINDINGS: Between Jan 31, 2013, and Oct 8, 2014, 53 patients were enrolled (four patients at 1 mg/kg, 13 at 3 mg/kg, 15 at 10 mg/kg, and 21 at 20 mg/kg). 18 patients were analysed in the dose-limiting toxicity analysis set: three at dose level 1 (1 mg/kg), three at dose level 2 (3 mg/kg), six at dose level 3 (10 mg/kg), and six at dose level 4 (20 mg/kg). Only one dose-limiting toxicity occurred, at the 20 mg/kg dose, and thus the maximum tolerated dose was not reached. In all 53 enrolled patients (the safety analysis set), common treatment-related adverse events (occurring in >10% of patients) included fatigue (21 patients [40%]), influenza-like symptoms (11 [21%]), fever (8 [15%]), and chills (6 [11%]). Grade 3-4 treatment-related adverse events occurred in nine (17%) of 53 patients, with autoimmune disorder (n=3), increased blood creatine phosphokinase (n=2), and increased aspartate aminotransferase (n=2) each occurring in more than one patient (autoimmune disorder in two patients at 10 mg/kg and one patient at 20 mg/kg, increased blood creatine phosphokinase in two patients at 20 mg/kg, and increased aspartate aminotransferase in one patient at 1 mg/kg, and one patient at 10 mg/kg). Six (11%) of 53 patients had a serious treatment-related adverse event: autoimmune disorder (two [13%]), lower abdominal pain (one [7%]), fatigue (one [7%]), and influenza-like illness (one [7%]) in three patients treated at 10 mg/kg dose level, and autoimmune disorder (one [5%]), increased amylase (one [5%]), myositis (one [5%]), and dysphonia (one [5%]) in three patients who received the 20 mg/kg dose. We recorded some evidence of clinical activity in various solid tumours, with partial confirmed or unconfirmed responses in four (8%) of 53 patients; 30 (57%) additional patients had stable disease. Pharmacokinetic analysis (n=86) showed a dose-proportional exposure between doses of 3 mg/kg and 20 mg/kg and a half-life of 95-99 h (3·9-4·1 days) at the 10 mg/kg and 20 mg/kg doses. Target occupancy was greater than 90% at doses of 3 mg/kg and 10 mg/kg. Antidrug antibodies were detected in two (4%) of 53 patients. No substantial differences were found in absolute lymphocyte count or multiple immune cell subsets, including those expressing PD-L1, after treatment with avelumab. 31 (58%) of 53 patients in the overall safety population died; no deaths were related to treatment on study. INTERPRETATION: Avelumab has an acceptable toxicity profile up to 20 mg/kg and the maximum tolerated dose was not reached. Based on pharmacokinetics, target occupancy, and immunological analysis, we chose 10 mg/kg every 2 weeks as the dose for further development and phase 3 trials are ongoing. FUNDING: National Cancer Institute and Merck KGaA.

Ethylene induces combinatorial effects of histone H3 acetylation in gene expression in Arabidopsis.

BACKGROUND: Histone acetylation and deacetylation are essential for gene regulation and have been implicated in the regulation of plant hormone responses. Many studies have indicated the role of histone acetylation in ethylene signaling; however, few studies have investigated how ethylene signaling regulates the genomic landscape of chromatin states. Recently, we found that ethylene can specifically elevate histone H3K14 acetylation and the non-canonical histone H3K23 acetylation in etiolated seedlings and the gene activation is positively associated with the elevation of H3K14Ac and H3K23Ac in response to ethylene. To assess the role of H3K9, H3K14, and H3K23 histone modifications in the ethylene response, we examined how ethylene regulates histone acetylation and the transcriptome at global level and in ethylene regulated genes both in wild type (Col-0) and ein2-5 seedlings. RESULTS: Our results revealed that H3K9Ac, H3K14Ac, and H3K23Ac are preferentially enriched around the transcription start sites and are positively correlated with gene expression levels in Col-0 and ein2-5 seedlings both with and without ethylene treatment. In the absence of ethylene, no combinatorial effect of H3K9Ac, H3K14Ac, and H3K23Ac on gene expression was detected. In the presence of ethylene, however, combined enrichment of the three histone acetylation marks was associated with high gene expression levels, and this ethylene-induced change was EIN2 dependent. In addition, we found that ethylene-regulated genes are expressed at medium or high levels, and a group of ethylene regulated genes are marked by either one of H3K9Ac, H3K14Ac or H3K23Ac. In this group of genes, the levels of H3K9Ac were altered by ethylene, but in the absence of ethylene the levels of H3K9Ac and peak breadths are distinguished in up- and down- regulated genes. In the presence of ethylene, the changes in the peak breadths and levels of H3K14Ac and H3K23Ac are required for the alteration of gene expressions. CONCLUSIONS: Our study reveals that the plant hormone ethylene induces combinatorial effects of H3K9Ac, K14Ac and K23Ac histone acetylation in gene expression genome widely. Further, for a group of ethylene regulated genes, in the absence of ethylene the levels and the covered breadths of H3K9Ac are the preexist markers for distinguishing up- and down- regulated genes, the change in the peak breadths and levels of H3K14Ac and H3K23Ac are required for the alteration of gene expression in the presence of ethylene.

Avelumab in patients with chemotherapy-refractory metastatic Merkel cell carcinoma: a multicentre, single-group, open-label, phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: Merkel cell carcinoma is a rare, aggressive skin cancer with poor prognosis in patients with advanced disease. Current standard care uses various cytotoxic chemotherapy regimens, but responses are seldom durable. Tumour oncogenesis is linked to Merkel cell polyomavirus integration and ultraviolet-radiation-induced mutations, providing rationale for treatment with immunotherapy antibodies that target the PD-L1/PD-1 pathway. We assessed treatment with avelumab, an anti-PD-L1 monoclonal antibody, in patients with stage IV Merkel cell carcinoma that had progressed after cytotoxic chemotherapy. METHODS: In this multicentre, international, prospective, single-group, open-label, phase 2 trial, patients with stage IV chemotherapy-refractory, histologically confirmed Merkel cell carcinoma (aged ≥18 years) were enrolled from 35 cancer treatment centres and academic hospitals in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. Key eligibility criteria were an ECOG performance status of 0 or 1, measurable disease by Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) version 1.1, adequate haematological, hepatic, and renal function, and immune-competent status (patients with HIV, immunosuppression, haematological malignancies, and previous organ transplantation were excluded). Patient selection was not based on PD-L1 expression or Merkel cell polyomavirus status. Collection of biopsy material or use of archival tissue for these assessments was mandatory. Avelumab was given intravenously at a dose of 10 mg/kg every 2 weeks. The primary endpoint was confirmed objective response (complete response or partial response) assessed according to RECIST version 1.1 by an independent review committee. Safety and clinical activity were assessed in all patients who received at least one dose of study drug (the modified intention-to-treat population). This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov as NCT02155647. FINDINGS: Between July 25, 2014, and Sept 3, 2015, 88 patients were enrolled and received at least one dose of avelumab. Patients were followed up for a median of 10·4 months (IQR 8·6-13·1). The proportion of patients who achieved an objective response was 28 (31·8% [95·9% CI 21·9-43·1]) of 88 patients, including eight complete responses and 20 partial responses. Responses were ongoing in 23 (82%) of 28 patients at the time of analysis. Five grade 3 treatment-related adverse events occurred in four (5%) patients: lymphopenia in two patients, blood creatine phosphokinase increase in one patient, aminotransferase increase in one patient, and blood cholesterol increase in one patient; there were no treatment-related grade 4 adverse events or treatment-related deaths. Serious treatment-related adverse events were reported in five patients (6%): enterocolitis, infusion-related reaction, aminotransferases increased, chondrocalcinosis, synovitis, and interstitial nephritis (n=1 each). INTERPRETATION: Avelumab was associated with durable responses, most of which are still ongoing, and was well tolerated; hence, avelumab represents a new therapeutic option for advanced Merkel cell carcinoma. FUNDING: Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany.

Cost-effectiveness of severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) testing and isolation strategies in nursing homes.

OBJECTIVE: Nursing home residents may be particularly vulnerable to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Therefore, a question is when and how often nursing homes should test staff for COVID-19 and how this may change as severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) evolves. DESIGN: We developed an agent-based model representing a typical nursing home, COVID-19 spread, and its health and economic outcomes to determine the clinical and economic value of various screening and isolation strategies and how it may change under various circumstances. RESULTS: Under winter 2023-2024 SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant conditions, symptom-based antigen testing averted 4.5 COVID-19 cases compared to no testing, saving $191 in direct medical costs. Testing implementation costs far outweighed these savings, resulting in net costs of $990 from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services perspective, $1,545 from the third-party payer perspective, and $57,155 from the societal perspective. Testing did not return sufficient positive health effects to make it cost-effective [$50,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) threshold], but it exceeded this threshold in ≥59% of simulation trials. Testing remained cost-ineffective when routinely testing staff and varying face mask compliance, vaccine efficacy, and booster coverage. However, all antigen testing strategies became cost-effective (≤$31,906 per QALY) or cost saving (saving ≤$18,372) when the severe outcome risk was ≥3 times higher than that of current omicron variants. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 testing costs outweighed benefits under winter 2023-2024 conditions; however, testing became cost-effective with increasingly severe clinical outcomes. Cost-effectiveness can change as the epidemic evolves because it depends on clinical severity and other intervention use. Thus, nursing home administrators and policy makers should monitor and evaluate viral virulence and other interventions over time.

The potential epidemiologic, clinical, and economic value of a universal coronavirus vaccine: a modelling study.

Background: With efforts underway to develop a universal coronavirus vaccine, otherwise known as a pan-coronavirus vaccine, this is the time to offer potential funders, researchers, and manufacturers guidance on the potential value of such a vaccine and how this value may change with differing vaccine and vaccination characteristics. Methods: Using a computational model representing the United States (U.S.) population, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the various clinical and economic outcomes of COVID-19 such as hospitalisations, deaths, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost, productivity losses, direct medical costs, and total societal costs, we explored the impact of a universal vaccine under different circumstances. We developed and populated this model using data reported by the CDC as well as observational studies conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: A pan-coronavirus vaccine would be cost saving in the U.S. as a standalone intervention as long as its vaccine efficacy is ≥10% and vaccination coverage is ≥10%. Every 1% increase in efficacy between 10% and 50% could avert an additional 395,000 infections and save $1.0 billion in total societal costs ($45.3 million in productivity losses, $1.1 billion in direct medical costs). It would remain cost saving even when a strain-specific coronavirus vaccine would be subsequently available, as long as it takes at least 2-3 months to develop, test, and bring that more specific vaccine to the market. Interpretation: Our results provide support for the development and stockpiling of a pan-coronavirus vaccine and help delineate the vaccine characteristics to aim for in development of such a vaccine. Funding: The National Science Foundation, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, and the City University of New York.

How the Timing of Annual COVID-19 Vaccination of Nursing Home Residents and Staff Affects Its Value.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the epidemiologic, clinical, and economic value of an annual nursing home (NH) COVID-19 vaccine campaign and the impact of when vaccination starts. DESIGN: Agent-based model representing a typical NH. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: NH residents and staff. METHODS: We used the model representing an NH with 100 residents, its staff, their interactions, COVID-19 spread, and its health and economic outcomes to evaluate the epidemiologic, clinical, and economic value of varying schedules of annual COVID-19 vaccine campaigns. RESULTS: Across a range of scenarios with a 60% vaccine efficacy that wanes starting 4 months after protection onset, vaccination was cost saving or cost-effective when initiated in the late summer or early fall. Annual vaccination averted 102 to 105 COVID-19 cases when 30-day vaccination campaigns began between July and October (varying with vaccination start), decreasing to 97 and 85 cases when starting in November and December, respectively. Starting vaccination between July and December saved $3340 to $4363 and $64,375 to $77,548 from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and societal perspectives, respectively (varying with vaccination start). Vaccination's value did not change when varying the COVID-19 peak between December and February. The ideal vaccine campaign timing was not affected by reducing COVID-19 levels in the community, or varying transmission probability, preexisting immunity, or COVID-19 severity. However, if vaccine efficacy wanes more quickly (over 1 month), earlier vaccination in July resulted in more cases compared with vaccinating later in October. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Annual vaccination of NH staff and residents averted the most cases when initiated in the late summer through early fall, at least 2 months before the COVID-19 winter peak but remained cost saving or cost-effective when it starts in the same month as the peak. This supports tethering COVID vaccination to seasonal influenza campaigns (typically in September-October) for providing protection against SARS-CoV-2 winter surges in NHs.

Benefits of Meeting the Healthy People 2030 Youth Sports Participation Target.

INTRODUCTION: Healthy People 2030, a U.S. government health initiative, has indicated that increasing youth sports participation to 63.3% is a priority in the U.S. This study quantified the health and economic value of achieving this target. METHODS: An agent-based model developed in 2023 represents each person aged 6-17 years in the U.S. On each simulated day, agents can participate in sports that affect their metabolic and mental health in the model. Each agent can develop different physical and mental health outcomes, associated with direct and indirect costs. RESULTS: Increasing the proportion of youth participating in sports from the most recent participation levels (50.7%) to the Healthy People 2030 target (63.3%) could reduce overweight/obesity prevalence by 3.37% (95% CI=3.35%, 3.39%), resulting in 1.71 million fewer cases of overweight/obesity (95% CI=1.64, 1.77 million). This could avert 352,000 (95% CI=336,200, 367,500) cases of weight-related diseases and gain 1.86 million (95% CI=1.86, 1.87 million) quality-adjusted life years, saving $22.55 billion (95% CI=$22.46, $22.63 billion) in direct medical costs and $25.43 billion (95% CI= $25.25, $25.61 billion) in productivity losses. This would also reduce depression/anxiety symptoms, saving $3.61 billion (95% CI=$3.58, $3.63 billion) in direct medical costs and $28.38 billion (95% CI=$28.20, $28.56 billion) in productivity losses. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that achieving the Healthy People 2030 objective could save third-party payers, businesses, and society billions of dollars for each cohort of persons aged 6-17 years, savings that would continue to repeat with each new cohort. This suggests that even if a substantial amount is invested toward this objective, such investments could pay for themselves.

Health and Economic Value of Eliminating Socioeconomic Disparities in US Youth Physical Activity.

Importance: There are considerable socioeconomic status (SES) disparities in youth physical activity (PA) levels. For example, studies show that lower-SES youth are less active, have lower participation in organized sports and physical education classes, and have more limited access to PA equipment. Objective: To determine the potential public health and economic effects of eliminating disparities in PA levels among US youth SES groups. Design and Setting: An agent-based model representing all 6- to 17-year-old children in the US was used to simulate the epidemiological, clinical, and economic effects of disparities in PA levels among different SES groups and the effect of reducing these disparities. Main Outcomes and Measures: Anthropometric measures (eg, body mass index) and the presence and severity of risk factors associated with weight (stroke, coronary heart disease, type 2 diabetes, or cancer), as well as direct and indirect cost savings. Results: This model, representing all 50 million US children and adolescents 6 to 17 years old, found that if the US eliminates the disparity in youth PA levels across SES groups, absolute overweight and obesity prevalence would decrease by 0.826% (95% CI, 0.821%-0.832%), resulting in approximately 383 000 (95% CI, 368 000-399 000) fewer cases of overweight and obesity and 101 000 (95% CI, 98 000-105 000) fewer cases of weight-related diseases (stroke and coronary heart disease events, type 2 diabetes, or cancer). This would result in more than $15.60 (95% CI, $15.01-$16.10) billion in cost savings over the youth cohort's lifetime. There are meaningful benefits even when reducing the disparity by just 25%, which would result in $1.85 (95% CI, $1.70-$2.00) billion in direct medical costs averted and $2.48 (95% CI, $2.04-$2.92) billion in productivity losses averted. For every 1% in disparity reduction, total productivity losses would decrease by about $83.8 million, and total direct medical costs would decrease by about $68.7 million. Conclusions and Relevance: This study quantified the potential savings from eliminating or reducing PA disparities, which can help policymakers, health care systems, schools, funders, sports organizations, and other businesses better prioritize investments toward addressing these disparities.

End-tidal carbon dioxide measured at emergency department triage outperforms standard triage vital signs in predicting in-hospital mortality and intensive care unit admission.

OBJECTIVES: This study assessed the ability of end-tidal carbon dioxide (ETCO2 ) in predicting in-hospital mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission compared to standard vital signs at ED triage as well as comparing to measures of metabolic acidosis. METHODS: This prospective study enrolled adult patients presenting to the ED of a tertiary care Level I trauma center over 30 months. Patients had standard vital signs measured along with exhaled ETCO2 at triage. Outcome measures included in-hospital mortality; ICU admission; and correlations with lactate, sodium bicarbonate (HCO3 ), and anion gap. RESULTS: There were 1136 patients enrolled and 1091 patients with outcome data available. There were 26 (2.4%) patients who did not survive to hospital discharge. Mean ETCO2 levels were 34 (33-34) in survivors and 22 (18-26) nonsurvivors (p < 0.001). The area under the curve (AUC) for predicting in-hospital mortality for ETCO2 was 0.82 (0.72-0.91). In comparison the AUC for temperature was 0.55 (0.42-0.68), respiratory rate (RR) 0.59 (0.46-0.73), systolic blood pressure (SBP) 0.77 (0.67-0.86), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) 0.70 (0.59-0.81), heart rate (HR) 0.76 (0.66-0.85), and oxygen saturation (SpO2 ) 0.53 (0.40-0.67). There were 64 (6%) patients admitted to the ICU, and the ETCO2 AUC for predicting ICU admission was 0.75 (0.67-0.80). In comparison the AUC for temperature was 0.51, RR 0.56, SBP 0.64, DBP 0.63, HR 0.66, and SpO2 0.53. Correlations between expired ETCO2 and serum lactate, anion gap, and HCO3 were rho = -0.25 (p < 0.001), rho = -0.20 (p < 0.001), and rho = 0.330 (p < 0.001), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: ETCO2 was a better predictor of in-hospital mortality and ICU admission than the standard vital signs at ED triage. ETCO2 correlated significantly with measures of metabolic acidosis.