Skin melanoma deaths within 1 or 3 years from diagnosis in Europe.

The steep increase in incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma in white populations mainly applies to thin lesions with good survival suggesting overdiagnosis. Based on population-based cancer registries (CRs), we have investigated changes in aggressive melanoma, selecting only cases who died within 1 or 3 years after diagnosis in 11 European countries between 1995 and 2012. Trends in fatal cases were analysed by period of diagnosis, sex, tumour thickness, histologic subtype of the lesion, tumour site and CR with a multivariate generalised linear mixed effects model, where geographical area was considered as a random effect. We collected data on 123 360 invasive melanomas, with 5133 fatal cases at 1 year (4%) and 12 330 (10%) at 3 years. The number of fatal cases showed a 16% decrease at 1 year and 8% at 3 years between the first (1995-2000) and the last (2007-2012) period. The highest proportion of fatal cases was seen for men, older age (≥65 years), thick lesions (>1 mm), nodular melanoma, melanoma on the trunk and for poorly documented cases, lacking information about thickness and histologic subtype. The mixed-effects model showed a remarkable variability among European countries. The majority of registries showed a decreasing trend in fatal cases, but a few registries showed an opposite pattern. Trends in fatal melanoma cases, highlighting real changes in risk not related to overdiagnosis, showed a decrease in most European countries, with a few exceptions. Stronger efforts for early detection could lead to a more efficient treatment of melanoma in general.

Burden and centralised treatment in Europe of rare tumours: results of RARECAREnet-a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Rare cancers pose challenges for diagnosis, treatments, and clinical decision making. Information about rare cancers is scant. The RARECARE project defined rare cancers as those with an annual incidence of less than six per 100 000 people in European Union (EU). We updated the estimates of the burden of rare cancers in Europe, their time trends in incidence and survival, and provide information about centralisation of treatments in seven European countries. METHODS: We analysed data from 94 cancer registries for more than 2 million rare cancer diagnoses, to estimate European incidence and survival in 2000-07 and the corresponding time trends during 1995-2007. Incidence was calculated as the number of new cases divided by the corresponding total person-years in the population. 5-year relative survival was calculated by the Ederer-2 method. Seven registries (Belgium, Bulgaria, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Slovenia, and the Navarra region in Spain) provided additional data for hospitals treating about 220 000 cases diagnosed in 2000-07. We also calculated hospital volume admission as the number of treatments provided by each hospital rare cancer group sharing the same referral pattern. FINDINGS: Rare cancers accounted for 24% of all cancers diagnosed in the EU during 2000-07. The overall incidence rose annually by 0.5% (99·8% CI 0·3-0·8). 5-year relative survival for all rare cancers was 48·5% (95% CI 48·4 to 48·6), compared with 63·4% (95% CI 63·3 to 63·4) for all common cancers. 5-year relative survival increased (overall 2·9%, 95% CI 2·7 to 3·2), from 1999-2001 to 2007-09, and for most rare cancers, with the largest increases for haematological tumours and sarcomas. The amount of centralisation of rare cancer treatment varied widely between cancers and between countries. The Netherlands and Slovenia had the highest treatment volumes. INTERPRETATION: Our study benefits from the largest pool of population-based registries to estimate incidence and survival of about 200 rare cancers. Incidence trends can be explained by changes in known risk factors, improved diagnosis, and registration problems. Survival could be improved by early diagnosis, new treatments, and improved case management. The centralisation of treatment could be improved in the seven European countries we studied. FUNDING: The European Commission (Chafea).

Association between smoking at diagnosis and cause-specific survival in patients with rectal cancer: Results from a population-based analysis of 10,794 cases.

BACKGROUND: Currently, the 5-year survival rate for rectal cancer remains at <60%. The identification of potentially modifiable prognostic factors would be of considerable public health importance. A few studies have suggested associations between smoking and survival in rectal cancer; however, the evidence is inconsistent, and most of these studies were relatively small. In a large population-based cohort study, we investigated whether smoking at diagnosis is an independent prognostic factor for cancer-specific survival in rectal cancer and whether the association varies by sex, age, or treatment. METHODS: Rectal cancers (ICD10 C19-20) diagnosed between 1994 and 2012 were abstracted from the National Cancer Registry Ireland and classified by smoking status at diagnosis. Follow-up was for 5 years or until December 31, 2012. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare cancer-specific death rates in current smokers, ex-smokers, and never smokers. Subgroup analyses by age at diagnosis, sex, and treatment were conducted. RESULTS: A total of 10,794 rectal cancers were diagnosed. At diagnosis, 25% were current smokers, 24% were ex-smokers, and 51% were never smokers. Compared with never smokers, current smokers had a significantly greater rate of death from cancer (multivariable hazard ratio [HR], 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-1.24), but ex-smokers did not (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.94-1.11). The association was slightly stronger in men (current versus never smokers: HR = 1.13, 95% CI, 1.02-1.24) than females (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.90-1.23), but the test for interaction was not significant (P = .75). The effect of smoking was not modified by age or receipt of tumor-directed surgery, radiotherapy, or chemotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: Rectal cancer patients who smoke at diagnosis have a statistically significant increased cancer death rate. Elucidation of the underlying mechanisms is urgently required. Cancer 2017;123:2543-50. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Interventions for raising breast cancer awareness in women.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer continues to be the most commonly diagnosed cancer in women globally. Early detection, diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer are key to better outcomes. Since many women will discover a breast cancer symptom themselves, it is important that they are breast cancer aware i.e. have the knowledge, skills and confidence to detect breast changes and present promptly to a healthcare professional. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness of interventions for raising breast cancer awareness in women. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Breast Cancer Group's Specialised Register (searched 25 January 2016), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; 2015, Issue 12) in the Cochrane Library (searched 27 January 2016), MEDLINE OvidSP (2008 to 27 January 2016), Embase (Embase.com, 2008 to 27 January 2016), the World Health Organization's International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) search portal and ClinicalTrials.gov (searched 27 Feburary 2016). We also searched the reference lists of identified articles and reviews and the grey literature for conference proceedings and published abstracts. No language restriction was applied. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) focusing on interventions for raising women's breast cancer awareness i.e. knowledge of potential breast cancer symptoms/changes and the confidence to look at and feel their breasts, using any means of delivery, i.e. one-to-one/group/mass media campaign(s). DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors selected studies, independently extracted data and assessed risk of bias. We reported the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for dichotomous outcomes and mean difference (MD) and standard deviation (SD) for continuous outcomes. Since it was not possible to combine data from included studies due to their heterogeneity, we present a narrative synthesis. We assessed the quality of evidence using GRADE methods. MAIN RESULTS: We included two RCTs involving 997 women: one RCT (867 women) randomised women to receive either a written booklet and usual care (intervention group 1), a written booklet and usual care plus a verbal interaction with a radiographer or research psychologist (intervention group 2) or usual care (control group); and the second RCT (130 women) randomised women to either an educational programme (three sessions of 60 to 90 minutes) or no intervention (control group). Knowledge of breast cancer symptomsIn the first study, knowledge of non-lump symptoms increased in intervention group 1 compared to the control group at two years postintervention, but not significantly (OR 1.1, 95% CI 0.7 to 1.6; P = 0.66; 449 women; moderate-quality evidence). Similarly, at two years postintervention, knowledge of symptoms increased in the intervention group 2 compared to the control group but not significantly (OR 1.4, 95% CI 0.9 to 2.1; P = 0.11; 434 women; moderate-quality evidence). In the second study, women's awareness of breast cancer symptoms had increased one month post intervention in the educational group (MD 3.45, SD 5.11; 65 women; low-quality evidence) compared to the control group (MD -0.68, SD 5.93; 65 women; P < 0.001), where there was a decrease in awareness. Knowledge of age-related riskIn the first study, women's knowledge of age-related risk of breast cancer increased, but not significantly, in intervention group 1 compared to control at two years postintervention (OR 1.8; 95% CI 0.9 to 3.5; P < 0.08; 447 women; moderate-quality evidence). Women's knowledge of risk increased significantly in intervention group 2 compared to control at two years postintervention (OR 4.8, 95% CI 2.6 to 9.0; P < 0.001; 431 women; moderate-quality evidence). In the second study, women's perceived susceptibility (how at risk they considered themselves) to breast cancer had increased significantly one month post intervention in the educational group (MD 1.31, SD 3.57; 65 women; low-quality evidence) compared to the control group (MD -0.55, SD 3.31; 65 women; P = 0.005), where a decrease in perceived susceptibility was noted. Frequency of Breast CheckingIn the first study, no significant change was noted for intervention group 1 compared to control at two years postintervention (OR 1.1, 95% CI 0.8 to 1.6; P = 0.54; 457 women; moderate-quality evidence). Monthly breast checking increased, but not significantly, in intervention group 2 compared to control at two years postintervention (OR 1.3, 95% CI 0.9 to 1.9; P = 0.14; 445 women; moderate-quality evidence). In the second study, women's breast cancer preventive behaviours increased significantly one month post intervention in the educational group (MD 1.21, SD 2.54; 65 women; low-quality evidence) compared to the control group (MD 0.15, SD 2.94; 65 women; P < 0.045). Breast Cancer AwarenessWomen's overall breast cancer awareness did not change in intervention group 1 compared to control at two years postintervention (OR 1.8, 95% CI 0.6 to 5.30; P = 0.32; 435 women; moderate-quality evidence) while overall awareness increased in the intervention group 2 compared to control at two years postintervention (OR 8.1, 95% CI 2.7 to 25.0; P < 0.001; 420 women; moderate-quality evidence). In the second study, there was a significant increase in scores on the Health Belief Model (that included the constructs of awareness and perceived susceptibility) at one month postintervention in the educational group (mean 1.21, SD 2.54; 65 women) compared to the control group (mean 0.15, SD 2.94; 65 women; P = 0.045).Neither study reported outcomes relating to motivation to check their breasts, confidence to seek help, time from breast symptom discovery to presentation to a healthcare professional, intentions to seek help, quality of life, adverse effects of the interventions, stages of breast cancer, survival estimates or breast cancer mortality rates. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Based on the results of two RCTs, a brief intervention has the potential to increase women's breast cancer awareness. However, findings of this review should be interpreted with caution, as GRADE assessment identified moderate-quality evidence in only one of the two studies reviewed. In addition, the included trials were heterogeneous in terms of the interventions, population studied and outcomes measured. Therefore, current evidence cannot be generalised to the wider context. Further studies including larger samples, validated outcome measures and longitudinal approaches are warranted.

Causes and outcomes of emergency presentation of rectal cancer.

Emergency presentation of rectal cancer carries a relatively poor prognosis, but the roles and interactions of causative factors remain unclear. We describe an innovative statistical approach which distinguishes between direct and indirect effects of a number of contextual, patient and tumour factors on emergency presentation and outcome of rectal cancer. All patients diagnosed with rectal cancer in Ireland 2004-2008 were included. Registry information, linked to hospital discharge data, provided data on patient demographics, comorbidity and health insurance; population density and deprivation of area of residence; tumour type, site, grade and stage; treatment type and optimality; and emergency presentation and hospital caseload. Data were modelled using a structural equation model with a discrete-time survival outcome, allowing us to estimate direct and mediated effects of the above factors on hazard, and their inter-relationships. Two thousand seven hundred and fifty patients were included in the analysis. Around 12% had emergency presentations, which increased hazard by 80%. Affluence, private patient status and being married reduced hazard indirectly by reducing emergency presentation. Older patients had more emergency presentations, while married patients, private patients or those living in less deprived areas had fewer than expected. Patients presenting as an emergency were less likely to receive optimal treatment or to have this in a high caseload hospital. Apart from stage, emergency admission was the strongest determinant of poor survival. The factors contributing to emergency admission in this study are similar to those associated with diagnostic delay. The socio-economic gradient found suggests that patient education and earlier access to endoscopic investigation for public patients could reduce emergency presentation.

Mechanisms and mediation in survival analysis: towards an integrated analytical framework.

BACKGROUND: A wide-ranging debate has taken place in recent years on mediation analysis and causal modelling, raising profound theoretical, philosophical and methodological questions. The authors build on the results of these discussions to work towards an integrated approach to the analysis of research questions that situate survival outcomes in relation to complex causal pathways with multiple mediators. The background to this contribution is the increasingly urgent need for policy-relevant research on the nature of inequalities in health and healthcare. METHODS: The authors begin by summarising debates on causal inference, mediated effects and statistical models, showing that these three strands of research have powerful synergies. They review a range of approaches which seek to extend existing survival models to obtain valid estimates of mediation effects. They then argue for an alternative strategy, which involves integrating survival outcomes within Structural Equation Models via the discrete-time survival model. This approach can provide an integrated framework for studying mediation effects in relation to survival outcomes, an issue of great relevance in applied health research. The authors provide an example of how these techniques can be used to explore whether the social class position of patients has a significant indirect effect on the hazard of death from colon cancer. RESULTS: The results suggest that the indirect effects of social class on survival are substantial and negative (-0.23 overall). In addition to the substantial direct effect of this variable (-0.60), its indirect effects account for more than one quarter of the total effect. The two main pathways for this indirect effect, via emergency admission (-0.12), on the one hand, and hospital caseload, on the other, (-0.10) are of similar size. CONCLUSIONS: The discrete-time survival model provides an attractive way of integrating time-to-event data within the field of Structural Equation Modelling. The authors demonstrate the efficacy of this approach in identifying complex causal pathways that mediate the effects of a socio-economic baseline covariate on the hazard of death from colon cancer. The results show that this approach has the potential to shed light on a class of research questions which is of particular relevance in health research.

Association of CYP3A variants with kidney transplant outcomes.

Cyclosporine is used extensively in kidney transplantation and is a substrate for cytochrome P450 enzymes. The role of cytochrome p450 polymorphisms in kidney transplant outcome has not yet been fully elucidated. We investigate the clinical impact of single nucleotide polymorphisms in CYP3A4, CYP3A5, PPARα, and POR*28 in 255 kidney transplant recipients. We examine for any association with graft survival, time to first cancer, and delayed graft function, and also measure cyclosporine levels at days 3, 10, and months 1, 3, 6, and 12 after transplantation. The CYP3A4*22 allele is significant associated with the development of cancer post-kidney transplantation (HR 0.20, 95% CI 0.07-0.57, p = 0.003). It is not significantly associated with graft survival. No other SNP's were associated with graft survival time to first cancer, or delayed graft function. There was a non-significant trend of lower cyclosporine dose requirement in CYP3A4*22 carriers. Independent replication of our findings is now warranted to confirm or reject the role of CYP3A variants in cancer development following kidney transplantation.

The magnitude and characteristics of the population of cancer survivors: using population-based estimates of cancer prevalence to inform service planning for survivorship care.

BACKGROUND: Rising cancer incidence and survival mean that the number of cancer survivors is growing. Accumulating evidence suggests many survivors have long-term medical and supportive care needs, and that these needs vary by survivors' socio-demographic and clinical characteristics. To illustrate how cancer registry data may be useful in survivorship care service planning, we generated population-based estimates of cancer prevalence in Ireland and described socio-demographic and clinical characteristics of the survivor population. METHODS: Details of people diagnosed with invasive cancer (ICD10 C00-C96) during 1994-2011, and who were still alive on 31/12/2011, were abstracted from the National Cancer Registry, and tabulated by cancer site, sex, current age, marital status, initial treatment, and time since diagnosis. Associations were investigated using chi-square tests. RESULTS: After excluding non-melanoma skin cancers, 17-year cancer prevalence in Ireland was 112,610 (females: 58,054 (52%) males: 54,556 (48%)). The four most prevalent cancers among females were breast (26,066), colorectum (6,598), melanoma (4,593) and uterus (3,505) and among males were prostate (23,966), colorectum (8,207), lymphoma (3,236) and melanoma (2,774). At the end of 2011, 39% of female survivors were aged <60 and 35% were ≥70 compared to 25% and 46% of males (p < 0.001). More than half of survivors of bladder, colorectal and prostate cancer were ≥70. Cancers with the highest percentages of younger (<40) survivors were: testis (50%); leukaemia (females: 28%; males: 22%); cervix (20%); and lymphoma (females: 19%; males: 20%). Fewer female (57%) than male (64%) survivors were married but the percentage single was similar (17-18%). More female (25%) than male survivors (18%; p < 0.001) were ≥10 years from diagnosis. Overall, 69% of survivors had undergone cancer-directed surgery, and 39%, 32% and 18% had received radiotherapy, chemotherapy and hormone therapy, respectively. These frequencies were higher among females than males (surgery: 82%, 54%; radiotherapy: 42%, 35%; chemotherapy: 40%, 22%; hormone therapy: 23%, 13%). CONCLUSIONS: These results reveal the socio-demographic and clinical heterogeneity of the survivor population, and highlight groups which may have specific medical and supportive care needs. These types of population-based estimates may help decision-makers, planners and service providers to develop follow-up and after-care services to effectively meet survivors' needs.

Risk of several cancers is higher in urban areas after adjusting for socioeconomic status. Results from a two-country population-based study of 18 common cancers.

Some studies suggest that there are urban-rural variations in cancer incidence but whether these simply reflect urban-rural socioeconomic variation is unclear. We investigated whether there were urban-rural variations in the incidence of 18 cancers, after adjusting for socioeconomic status. Cancers diagnosed between 1995 and 2007 were extracted from the population-based National Cancer Registry Ireland and Northern Ireland Cancer Registry and categorised by urban-rural status, based on population density of area of residence at diagnosis (rural <1 person per hectare, intermediate 1-15 people per hectare, urban >15 people per hectare). Relative risks (RR) were calculated by negative binomial regression, adjusting for age, country and three area-based markers of socioeconomic status. Risks were significantly higher in both sexes in urban than rural residents with head and neck (males RR urban vs. rural = 1.53, 95 % CI 1.42-1.64; females RR = 1.29, 95 % CI 1.15-1.45), esophageal (males 1.21, 1.11-1.31; females 1.21, 1.08-1.35), stomach (males 1.36, 1.27-1.46; females 1.19, 1.08-1.30), colorectal (males 1.14, 1.09-1.18; females 1.04, 1.00-1.09), lung (males 1.54, 1.47-1.61; females 1.74, 1.65-1.84), non-melanoma skin (males 1.13, 1.10-1.17; females 1.23, 1.19-1.27) and bladder (males 1.30, 1.21-1.39; females 1.31, 1.17-1.46) cancers. Risks of breast, cervical, kidney and brain cancer were significantly higher in females in urban areas. Prostate cancer risk was higher in rural areas (0.94, 0.90-0.97). Other cancers showed no significant urban-rural differences. After adjusting for socioeconomic variation, urban-rural differences were evident for 12 of 18 cancers. Variations in healthcare utilization and known risk factors likely explain some of the observed associations. Explanations for others are unclear and, in the interests of equity, warrant further investigation.

Smokers still underestimate the risks posed by secondhand smoke: a repeated cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about risk perception of secondhand smoke (SHS) and its changes over time. The aim of the study was to examine the role of smoking status and demographics on perceiving a range of health risks of SHS exposure and their trends over time among a representative sample of the Irish general population. METHODS: This study included 2 repeated cross-sectional samples of Irish adults in 1999 (n = 1,240) and 2006 (n = 1,000), in addition to a representative sample of General Practitioners (2006: n = 248), sampled as a health care professional's view on SHS risk. Participants were asked to consider whether a nonsmoker, exposed to SHS, is at an increased risk of asthma, lung cancer, heart disease, bronchitis, diabetes, and ear infections in children. RESULTS: There was a significant increase in the general population's risk perception of SHS for asthma, lung cancer, heart disease, and bronchitis from 1999 to 2006. Not even half of the general population in 1999 and in 2006 perceived a risk for the development of ear infections in children with SHS exposure (45% in 1999, 46% in 2006). With the exception of ear infections in children in 2006, the risk perception of all diseases differed significantly by smoking status; smokers' risk perception of SHS was significantly lower. Encouraging results suggest that the differences in risk perception between smokers and nonsmokers have decreased. CONCLUSION: Risk perception of SHS exposure has improved as has the gap in perception between smokers and nonsmokers. This research points to a lack of awareness among the general population of the risk perception of SHS exposure to children.

Hospital and surgeon caseload are associated with risk of re-operation following breast-conserving surgery.

Breast-conserving surgery (BCS) is increasingly used for breast cancer treatment. One of the disadvantages of BCS is the risk of re-operation, associated with additional costs to the woman, health service and society. Hospital and surgeon caseload have been associated with better outcomes in breast cancer. Whether these are related to re-operation rates is not clear. In women who underwent BCS initially, we aimed to quantify re-operation rates and identify the factors related to the risk of undergoing subsequent (i) re-operation and (ii) total mastectomy (TM). From the National Cancer Registry Ireland, we identified women diagnosed with a first invasive breast cancer during 2002-2008, and who initially had BCS. Poisson regression with robust error variance was used to identify factors significantly associated with (i) re-operation (vs no re-operation) or (ii) re-operation by TM (vs re-operation by BCS). 16,551 women were diagnosed with invasive breast cancer and 8,318 underwent initial BCS. Of these, 17 % had one or more subsequent re-operations and, of these, 62 % had TM. Surgeon and hospital volume significantly predicted subsequent re-operation after adjustment for socio-demographic and clinical variables. Women having surgery in lower-volume hospitals by low-volume surgeons significantly increased the risk of re-operation [incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.56; 95 % CI 1.33-1.83] compared to those operated in higher-volume hospitals by a higher-volume surgeon. Risk of subsequent TM was increased by 22 % (95 % CI 1.10-1.35) and 21 % (95 % CI 1.09-1.33), if women were operated by a lower or intermediate-volume surgeon. The fact that factors related to healthcare organisation/service provision are associated with re-operations suggests that it may be possible to reduce the overall re-operation rate. The high frequency of subsequent TM raises questions about strategies for selecting women for initial BCS. Our results may inform the development of information strategies to help ensure that women are aware of risks of re-operation following BCS and hence, make appropriate treatment choices.

Factors predicting hospital length-of-stay after radical prostatectomy: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Radical prostatectomy (RP) is a leading treatment option for localised prostate cancer. Although hospital in-patient stays accounts for much of the costs of treatment, little is known about population-level trends in length-of-stay (LOS). We investigated factors predicting hospital LOS and readmissions in men who had RP following prostate cancer. METHODS: Incident prostate cancers (ICD-O3: C61), diagnosed January 2002-December 2008 in men < 70 years, were identified from the Irish Cancer Registry, and linked to public hospital episodes. For those who had RP (ICD-9 CM procedure codes 60.3, 60.4, 60.5, 60.62) the associated hospital episode was identified. LOS was calculated as the number of days from date of admission to date of discharge. Patient-, tumour-, and health service-related factors predicting longer LOS (upper quartile, >9 days) were investigated using logistic regression. Patterns in day-case and in-patient readmissions within 28 days of discharge following RP were explored. RESULTS: Over the study period 9096 prostate cancers were diagnosed in men under 70, 26.5% of whom had RP by end of follow-up 31/12/2009. Two of eight public hospitals and eight of forty surgeons carried out 50% of all public-service RPs. Median LOS was 8 days (10th-90th percentile = 6-13 days) and fell significantly over time (2002, 9 days; 2008, 7 days; p < 0.001). In adjusted analyses men who were not married (OR = 1.71, 95% CI 1.25-2.34), had co-morbidities (OR = 1.64, 95% CI 1.25-2.16) or stage III-IV cancer (OR = 2.19, 95% CI 1.44-3.34) were significantly more likely to have prolonged LOS. Those treated in higher volume hospitals (annual median >49 RPs) or by higher volume surgeons (annual median >17 RPs) were significantly less likely to have prolonged LOS (OR = 0.34, 95% CI 0.26-0.45; OR = 0.55, 95% CI 0.42-0.71 respectively). CONCLUSION: Median LOS after RP decreased between 2002 and 2008 in Ireland but it remains higher than in both England and the US. Although volumes of RPs conducted in Ireland are low, there is considerable variation between hospitals and surgeons. Hospital and surgeon volume were strong predictors of shorter LOS, after adjusting for other variables. These factors point to a need for a comprehensive review of prostate cancer service provision.

Using resource modelling to inform decision making and service planning: the case of colorectal cancer screening in Ireland.

BACKGROUND: Organised colorectal cancer screening is likely to be cost-effective, but cost-effectiveness results alone may not help policy makers to make decisions about programme feasibility or service providers to plan programme delivery. For these purposes, estimates of the impact on the health services of actually introducing screening in the target population would be helpful. However, these types of analyses are rarely reported. As an illustration of such an approach, we estimated annual health service resource requirements and health outcomes over the first decade of a population-based colorectal cancer screening programme in Ireland. METHODS: A Markov state-transition model of colorectal neoplasia natural history was used. Three core screening scenarios were considered: (a) flexible sigmoidoscopy (FSIG) once at age 60, (b) biennial guaiac-based faecal occult blood tests (gFOBT) at 55-74 years, and (c) biennial faecal immunochemical tests (FIT) at 55-74 years. Three alternative FIT roll-out scenarios were also investigated relating to age-restricted screening (55-64 years) and staggered age-based roll-out across the 55-74 age group. Parameter estimates were derived from literature review, existing screening programmes, and expert opinion. Results were expressed in relation to the 2008 population (4.4 million people, of whom 700,800 were aged 55-74). RESULTS: FIT-based screening would deliver the greatest health benefits, averting 164 colorectal cancer cases and 272 deaths in year 10 of the programme. Capacity would be required for 11,095-14,820 diagnostic and surveillance colonoscopies annually, compared to 381-1,053 with FSIG-based, and 967-1,300 with gFOBT-based, screening. With FIT, in year 10, these colonoscopies would result in 62 hospital admissions for abdominal bleeding, 27 bowel perforations and one death. Resource requirements for pathology, diagnostic radiology, radiotherapy and colorectal resection were highest for FIT. Estimates depended on screening uptake. Alternative FIT roll-out scenarios had lower resource requirements. CONCLUSIONS: While FIT-based screening would quite quickly generate attractive health outcomes, it has heavy resource requirements. These could impact on the feasibility of a programme based on this screening modality. Staggered age-based roll-out would allow time to increase endoscopy capacity to meet programme requirements. Resource modelling of this type complements conventional cost-effectiveness analyses and can help inform policy making and service planning.

Genes of the interleukin-18 pathway are associated with susceptibility to Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the association of genetic polymorphisms of the interleukin-18 (IL-18) pathway to Barrett's esophagus (BE) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Most cases of EAC arise in a background of reflux-induced BE. Genetic influences in this pathway are poorly understood. IL-18 is a multifunctional cytokine implicated in anti-tumor immunity. A number of polymorphisms of the IL-18 and IL-18 receptor-accessory protein (IL-18RAP) genes have been reported to alter gene expression and have recently been linked to inflammatory processes and various tumors, but have not heretofore been studied in BE and EAC. METHODS: Two IL-18 promoter polymorphisms -137 G/C and -607 C/A, (rs187238 and rs1946518) and one IL-18RAP polymorphism (rs917997, C/T) were analyzed. Each single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) was genotyped in the following groups: EAC, BE, reflux esophagitis (RE), and controls and analyzed for association with disease status. RESULTS: The IL-18RAP rs917997C allele is strongly associated with a protective effect in BE (P = 0.0002) and EAC (P = 6 × 10(-7)), which approaches genome-wide levels of significance for allele association without incurring significant multiple testing. The CC genotype at IL-18RAP locus rs917997 was associated with a protective effect against esophageal disease (P = 6 × 10(-4), odds ratio (OR) = 0.59, and 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.43-0.80 for BE; and P = 2 × 10(-6), OR = 0.46, and 95% CI 0.34-0.64 for EAC). The genotype frequencies of IL-18-607 C/A were weakly associated with BE (P = 0.02), and this trend was also seen between controls and EAC (P = 0.07). The CC genotype was associated with an increased risk of BE (OR = 1.45, 95% CI 1.07-1.98) and approached significance for EAC (OR = 1.34, 95% CI 0.98-1.82). Allele and genotype frequencies at these loci were not significantly different between the RE group and controls. Although no significant association was observed between the disease groups at the -137 G/C locus, the -137G/-607C haplotype was associated with increased risk of BE (P = 0.006) with haplotype frequencies of 55% in controls and 65% in BE. CONCLUSIONS: These data show a strong association of the IL-18RAP SNP rs917997 locus with BE and EAC and suggestive association of the Barrett's population with the IL-18-607 C/A promoter polymorphism. As both of these SNPs have been demonstrated as expression quantitative trait loci affecting expression of the respective genes, this strongly implicates IL-18 signaling in susceptibility to BE and EAC.

Factors predicting hospital length-of-stay and readmission after colorectal resection: a population-based study of elective and emergency admissions.

BACKGROUND: The impact of developments in colorectal cancer surgery on length-of-stay (LOS) and re-admission have not been well described. In a population-based analysis, we investigated predictors of LOS and emergency readmission after the initial surgery episode. METHODS: Incident colorectal cancers (ICD-O2: C18-C20), diagnosed 2002-2008, were identified from the National Cancer Registry Ireland, and linked to hospital in-patient episodes. For those who underwent colorectal resection, the associated hospital episode was identified. Factors predicting longer LOS (upper-quartile, > 24 days) for elective and emergency admissions separately, and whether LOS predicted emergency readmission within 28 days of discharge, were investigated using logistic regression. RESULTS: 8197 patients underwent resection, 63% (n = 5133) elective and 37% (n = 3063) emergency admissions. Median LOS was 14 days (inter-quartile range (IQR) = 11-20) for elective and 21 (15-33) for emergency admissions. For both emergency and elective admissions, likelihood of longer LOS was significantly higher in patients who were older, had co-morbidities and were unmarried; it was reduced for private patients. For emergency patients only the likelihood of longer LOS was lower for patients admitted to higher-volume hospitals. Longer LOS was associated with increased risk of emergency readmission. CONCLUSIONS: One quarter of patients stay in hospital for at least 25 days following colorectal resection. Over one third of resected patients are emergency admissions and these have a significantly longer median LOS. Patient- and health service-related factors were associated with prolonged LOS. Longer LOS was associated with increased risk of emergency readmission. The cost implications of these findings are significant.

Clinical features, treatment, and survival of patients with colorectal cancer with or without inflammatory bowel disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) increases the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), indicating that inflammation might alter tumor characteristics and potentially affect treatment and survival. Published data on this topic are inconclusive, so we conducted a population-based study in Ireland to address it. METHODS: We used the National Cancer Registry to collect data on all patients diagnosed with CRC in Ireland from 1994 to 2005 (n = 22,335) and identified those who also had IBD (n = 170). The clinical characteristics, treatment, and survival of patients with IBD and CRC were compared with those of patients with CRC without IBD. RESULTS: Patients with CRC and IBD were, on average, 7.7 years younger than those without IBD at diagnosis of CRC (P = .001), and were less likely to smoke (P = .002). Fewer CRCs in patients with IBD were stage 4 at diagnosis (12% vs 22% in non-IBD patients; P < .001). There was no significant difference in CRC treatment modalities between patients with or without IBD (P = .57). The median survival time of CRC patients with IBD was about 3 years longer than that of patients without IBD (P < .001). However, Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed that IBD was not a significant prognostic factor for CRC (P = .97). However, older age, male sex, smoking, and advanced grade and stage all were associated independently with shorter survival time. When propensity score matching was used to analyze outcomes, the survival times of CRC patients with and without IBD did not differ significantly. CONCLUSIONS: The features of patients with CRC and IBD differ significantly from those of CRC patients without IBD, but each group of patients receive similar treatment and have similar patterns of disease progression after diagnosis.

Drinking water fluoridation and osteosarcoma incidence on the island of Ireland.

The incidence of osteosarcoma in Northern Ireland was compared with that in the Republic of Ireland to establish if differences in incidence between the two regions could be related to their different drinking water fluoridation policies. Data from the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry (NICR) and the National Cancer Registry of Ireland (NCRI) on osteosarcoma incidence in the respective populations were used to estimate the age-standardised and age-specific incidence rates in areas with and without drinking water fluoridation. One hundred and eighty-three osteosarcoma cases were recorded on the island of Ireland between 1994 and 2006. No significant differences were observed between fluoridated and non-fluoridated areas in either age-specific or age-standardised incidence rates of osteosarcoma. The results of this study do not support the hypothesis that osteosarcoma incidence in the island of Ireland is significantly related to public water fluoridation. However, this conclusion must be qualified, in view of the relative rarity of the cancer and the correspondingly wide confidence intervals of the relative risk estimates.

The association between alcohol and reflux esophagitis, Barrett's esophagus, and esophageal adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Alcohol consumption may increase gastroesophageal reflux symptoms, cause damage to the esophageal mucosa, and/or promote carcinogenesis. However, reports about the association between alcohol and reflux esophagitis, Barrett's esophagus, and esophageal adenocarcinoma are conflicting. METHODS: Information relating to alcohol consumption, at age 21 and 5 years before the interview date, was collected from 230 reflux esophagitis, 224 Barrett's esophagus, and 227 esophageal adenocarcinoma patients and 260 frequency-matched population controls. Logistic regression analyses were used to compare alcohol consumption in the 3 case groups to controls with adjustment for potential confounders. RESULTS: Population controls reporting gastroesophageal reflux symptoms were less likely than controls without symptoms to drink alcohol 5 years before the interview date (odds ratio [OR], 0.44, 0.20-0.99). No associations were observed between total alcohol consumption 5 years before the interview date and reflux esophagitis, Barrett's esophagus, or esophageal adenocarcinoma (OR, 1.26, 0.78-2.05; OR, 0.72, 0.43-1.21; and OR, 0.75, 0.46-1.22, respectively). Wine was inversely associated with reflux esophagitis (OR, 0.45, 0.27-0.75). Total alcohol consumption at age 21 years was significantly associated with reflux esophagitis (OR, 2.24, 1.35-3.74) but not with Barrett's esophagus or esophageal adenocarcinoma (OR, 1.06, 0.63-1.79 and OR, 1.27, 0.77-2.10, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol consumption in early adulthood may lead to the development of reflux esophagitis. More recent alcohol consumption does not appear to confer any increased risk of reflux esophagitis, Barrett's esophagus, or esophageal adenocarcinoma. In fact, wine consumption may reduce the risk of these 3 esophageal disorders.

Dietary antioxidant and mineral intake in humans is associated with reduced risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma but not reflux esophagitis or Barrett's esophagus.

The role of antioxidants in the pathogenesis of reflux esophagitis (RE), Barrett's esophagus (BE), and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) remains unknown. We evaluated the associations among dietary antioxidant intake and these diseases. We performed an assessment of dietary antioxidant intake in a case control study of RE (n = 219), BE (n = 220), EAC (n = 224), and matched population controls (n = 256) (the Factors Influencing the Barrett's Adenocarcinoma Relationship study) using a modification of a validated FFQ. We found that overall antioxidant index, a measure of the combined intake of vitamin C, vitamin E, total carotenoids, and selenium, was associated with a reduced risk of EAC [odds ratio (OR) = 0.57; 95% CI = 0.33-0.98], but not BE (OR = 0.95; 95% CI = 0.53-1.71) or RE (OR = 1.60; 95% CI = 0.86-2.98), for those in the highest compared with lowest category of intake. Those in the highest category of vitamin C intake had a lower risk of EAC (OR = 0.37; 95% CI = 0.21-0.66; P-trend = 0.001) and RE (OR = 0.46; 95% CI = 0.24-0.90; P-trend = 0.03) compared with those in the lowest category. Vitamin C intake was not associated with BE, and intake of vitamin E, total carotenoids, zinc, copper, or selenium was not associated with EAC, BE, or RE. In conclusion, the overall antioxidant index was associated with a reduced risk of EAC. Higher dietary intake of vitamin C was associated with a reduced risk of EAC and RE. These results suggest that antioxidants may play a role in the pathogenesis of RE and EAC and may be more important in terms of progression rather than initiation of the disease process.

Radical prostatectomy versus watchful waiting for prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: The lack of evidence regarding the effectiveness of treatment options for clinically localised prostate cancer continues to impact on clinical decision-making. Two such options are radical prostatectomy (RP) and watchful waiting (WW). WW involves providing no initial treatment and monitoring the patient with the intention of providing palliative treatment if there is evidence of disease progression. OBJECTIVES: To compare the beneficial and harmful effects of RP versus WW for the treatment of localised prostate cancer. SEARCH STRATEGY: MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, ISI Science Citation Index, DARE and LILACS were searched through 30 July 2010. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials comparing the effects of RP versus WW for clinically localised prostate cancer. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Data extraction and quality assessment were carried out independently by two authors. MAIN RESULTS: Two trials met the inclusion criteria. Both trials commenced prior to the widespread availability of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening; hence the results may not be applicable to men with PSA-detected disease.One trial (N = 142), conducted in the US, was judged to be of poor quality. All cause (overall) mortality was not significantly different between RP and WW groups after fifteen years of follow up (Hazard Ratio (HR) 0.9 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.56 to 1.43).The second trial (N = 695), conducted in Scandinavia, was judged to be of good quality. After 12 years of follow up, the trial results were compatible with a beneficial effect of RP on the risks of overall mortality, prostate cancer mortality and distant metastases compared with WW but the precise magnitude of the effect is uncertain as indicated by the width of the confidence intervals for all estimates (risk difference (RD) -7.1% (95% CI -14.7 to 0.5); RD -5.4% (95% CI -11.1 to 0.2); RD -6.7% (95% CI -13.2 to -0.2), respectively).        Compared to WW, RP increased the absolute risks of erectile dysfunction (RD 35% (95% CI 25 to 45)) and urinary leakage (RD 27% (95% CI 17 to 37)). These estimates must be interpreted cautiously as they are derived from data obtained from a self-administered questionnaire survey of a sample of the trial participants (N = 326), no baseline quality of life data were obtained and nerve-sparing surgery was not routinely performed on trial participants undergoing RP. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The existing trials provide insufficient evidence to allow confident statements to be made about the relative beneficial and harmful effects of RP and WW for patients with localised prostate cancer. The results of ongoing trials should help to inform treatment decisions for men with screen-detected localised prostate cancer.