Cost-effectiveness of transcatheter aortic valve implantation in patients with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis of intermediate surgical risk in Singapore.

OBJECTIVE: The objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) in patients with severe aortic stenosis with intermediate surgical risk in Singapore. METHODS: A de novo Markov model with three health states - stroke with long-term sequelae, no stroke, and death - was developed and simulated using Monte Carlo simulations with 10,000 iterations over a five-year time horizon from the Singapore healthcare system perspective. A 3% annual discount rate for costs and outcomes and monthly cycle lengths were used. By applying the longest available published clinical evidence, simulated patients received either TAVI or surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) and were at risk of adverse events (AEs) such as moderate-to-severe paravalvular aortic regurgitation (PAR). RESULTS: When five-year PARTNER 2A data was applied, base-case analyses showed that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for TAVI compared to SAVR was US$315,760 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. The high ICER was due to high incremental implantation and procedure costs of TAVI compared to SAVR, and marginal improvement of 0.10 QALYs as simulated mortality of TAVI exceeded SAVR at 3.75 years post-implantation. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that the ICERs were most sensitive to cost of PAR, utility values of SAVR patients, and cost of TAVI and SAVR implants and procedures. When disutilities for AEs were additionally applied, the ICER decreased to US$300,070 per QALY gained. TAVI was dominated by SAVR when the time horizon increased to 20 years. Clinical outcomes projected from one-year PARTNER S3i data further reduced the ICER to US$86,337 per QALY gained for TAVI, assuming early all-cause mortality benefits from TAVI continued to persist. This assumption was undermined when longer term data showed that TAVI's early mortality benefits diminished at five years. LIMITATIONS AND CONCLUSION: TAVI is unlikely to be cost-effective in intermediate surgical-risk patients compared to SAVR in Singapore.

A systematic review of meta-analyses assessing the validity of tumour response endpoints as surrogates for progression-free or overall survival in cancer.

BACKGROUND: Tumour response endpoints, such as overall response rate (ORR) and complete response (CR), are increasingly used in cancer trials. However, the validity of response-based surrogates is unclear. This systematic review summarises meta-analyses assessing the association between response-based outcomes and overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS) or time-to-progression (TTP). METHODS: Five databases were searched to March 2019. Meta-analyses reporting correlation or regression between response-based outcomes and OS, PFS or TTP were summarised. RESULTS: The systematic review included 63 studies across 20 cancer types, most commonly non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), colorectal cancer (CRC) and breast cancer. The strength of association between ORR or CR and either PFS or OS varied widely between and within studies, with no clear pattern by cancer type. The association between ORR and OS appeared weaker and more variable than that between ORR and PFS, both for associations between absolute endpoints and associations between treatment effects. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review suggests that response-based endpoints, such as ORR and CR, may not be reliable surrogates for PFS or OS. Where it is necessary to use tumour response to predict treatment effects on survival outcomes, it is important to fully reflect all statistical uncertainty in the surrogate relationship.

Homeopathy for treatment of irritable bowel syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is a common, chronic disorder that leads to decreased health-related quality of life and work productivity. A previous version of this review was not able to draw firm conclusions about the effectiveness of homeopathic treatment for IBS and recommended that further high quality RCTs were conducted to explore the clinical and cost effectiveness of homeopathic treatment for IBS. Two types of homeopathic treatment were evaluated in this systematic review: 1. Clinical homeopathy where a specific remedy is prescribed for a specific condition; 2. Individualised homeopathic treatment, where a homeopathic remedy based on a person's individual symptoms is prescribed after a detailed consultation. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness and safety of homeopathic treatment for IBS. SEARCH METHODS: For this update we searched MEDLINE, CENTRAL, Embase, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Allied and Complementary Medicine Database (AMED), the Cochrane IBD Group Specialised Register and trials registers from inception to 31 August 2018. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), cohort and case-control studies that compared homeopathic treatment with placebo, other control treatments, or usual care, in adults with IBS were considered for inclusion. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors independently assessed the risk of bias and extracted data. The primary outcome was global improvement in IBS as measured by an IBS symptom severity score. Secondary outcomes included quality of life, abdominal pain, stool frequency, stool consistency, and adverse events. The overall certainty of the evidence supporting the primary and secondary outcomes was assessed using the GRADE criteria. We used the Cochrane risk of bias tool to assess risk of bias. We calculated the mean difference (MD) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for continuous outcomes and the risk ratio (RR) and 95% CI for dichotomous outcomes. MAIN RESULTS: Four RCTs (307 participants) were included. Two studies compared clinical homeopathy (homeopathic remedy, asafoetida or asafoetida plus nux vomica) to placebo for IBS with constipation (IBS-C). One study compared individualised homeopathic treatment (consultation plus remedy) to usual care for the treatment of IBS in female patients. One study was a three armed RCT comparing individualised homeopathic treatment to supportive listening or usual care. The risk of bias in three studies (the two studies assessing clinical homeopathy and the study comparing individualised homeopathic treatment to usual care) was unclear on most criteria and high for selective reporting in one of the clinical homeopathy studies. The three armed study comparing individualised homeopathic treatment to usual care and supportive listening was at low risk of bias in four of the domains and high risk of bias in two (performance bias and detection bias).A meta-analysis of the studies assessing clinical homeopathy, (171 participants with IBS-C) was conducted. At short-term follow-up of two weeks, global improvement in symptoms was experienced by 73% (46/63) of asafoetida participants compared to 45% (30/66) of placebo participants (RR 1.61, 95% CI 1.18 to 2.18; 2 studies, very low certainty evidence). In the other clinical homeopathy study at two weeks, 68% (13/19) of those in the asafoetida plus nux vomica arm and 52% (12/23) of those in the placebo arm experienced a global improvement in symptoms (RR 1.31, 95% CI 0.80 to 2.15; very low certainty evidence). In the study comparing individualised homeopathic treatment to usual care (N = 20), the mean global improvement score (feeling unwell) at 12 weeks was 1.44 + 4.55 (n = 9) in the individualised homeopathic treatment arm compared to 1.41 + 1.97 (n=11) in the usual care arm (MD 0.03; 95% CI -3.16 to 3.22; very low certainty evidence).In the study comparing individualised homeopathic treatment to usual care, the mean IBS symptom severity score at 6 months was 210.44 + 112.4 (n = 16) in the individualised homeopathic treatment arm compared to 237.3 + 110.22 (n = 60) in the usual care arm (MD -26.86, 95% CI -88.59 to 34.87; low certainty evidence). The mean quality of life score (EQ-5D) at 6 months in homeopathy participants was 69.07 (SD 17.35) compared to 63.41 (SD 23.31) in usual care participants (MD 5.66, 95% CI -4.69 to 16.01; low certainty evidence).For In the study comparing individualised homeopathic treatment to supportive listening, the mean IBS symptom severity score at 6 months was 210.44 + 112.4 (n = 16) in the individualised homeopathic treatment arm compared to 262 + 120.72 (n = 18) in the supportive listening arm (MD -51.56, 95% CI -129.94 to 26.82; very low certainty evidence). The mean quality of life score at 6 months in homeopathy participants was 69.07 (SD 17.35) compared to 63.09 (SD 24.38) in supportive listening participants (MD 5.98, 95% CI -8.13 to 20.09; very low certainty evidence).None of the included studies reported on abdominal pain, stool frequency, stool consistency, or adverse events. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The results for the outcomes assessed in this review are uncertain. Thus no firm conclusions regarding the effectiveness and safety of homeopathy for the treatment of IBS can be drawn. Further high quality, adequately powered RCTs are required to assess the efficacy and safety of clinical and individualised homeopathy for IBS compared to placebo or usual care.

Prevalence of homeopathy use by the general population worldwide: a systematic review.

AIM: To systematically review surveys of 12-month prevalence of homeopathy use by the general population worldwide. METHODS: Studies were identified via database searches to October 2015. Study quality was assessed using a six-item tool. All estimates were in the context of a survey which also reported prevalence of any complementary and alternative medicine use. RESULTS: A total of 36 surveys were included. Of these, 67% met four of six quality criteria. Twelve-month prevalence of treatment by a homeopath was reported in 24 surveys of adults (median 1.5%, range 0.2-8.2%). Estimates for children were similar to those for adults. Rates in the USA, UK, Australia and Canada all ranged from 0.2% to 2.9% and remained stable over the years surveyed (1986-2012). Twelve-month prevalence of all use of homeopathy (purchase of over-the-counter homeopathic medicines and treatment by a homeopath) was reported in 10 surveys of adults (median 3.9%, range 0.7-9.8%) while a further 11 surveys which did not define the type of homeopathy use reported similar data. Rates in the USA and Australia ranged from 1.7% to 4.4% and remained stable over the years surveyed. The highest use was reported by a survey in Switzerland where homeopathy is covered by mandatory health insurance. CONCLUSIONS: This review summarises 12-month prevalence of homeopathy use from surveys conducted in eleven countries (USA, UK, Australia, Israel, Canada, Switzerland, Norway, Germany, South Korea, Japan and Singapore). Each year a small but significant percentage of these general populations use homeopathy. This includes visits to homeopaths as well as purchase of over-the-counter homeopathic medicines.

The use of rapid review methods in health technology assessments: 3 case studies.

BACKGROUND: Rapid reviews are of increasing importance within health technology assessment due to time and resource constraints. There are many rapid review methods available although there is little guidance as to the most suitable methods. We present three case studies employing differing methods to suit the evidence base for each review and outline some issues to consider when selecting an appropriate method. METHODS: Three recently completed systematic review short reports produced for the UK National Institute for Health Research were examined. Different approaches to rapid review methods were used in the three reports which were undertaken to inform the commissioning of services within the NHS and to inform future trial design. We describe the methods used, the reasoning behind the choice of methods and explore the strengths and weaknesses of each method. RESULTS: Rapid review methods were chosen to meet the needs of the review and each review had distinctly different challenges such as heterogeneity in terms of populations, interventions, comparators and outcome measures (PICO) and/or large numbers of relevant trials. All reviews included at least 10 randomised controlled trials (RCTs), each with numerous included outcomes. For the first case study (sexual health interventions), very diverse studies in terms of PICO were included. P-values and summary information only were presented due to substantial heterogeneity between studies and outcomes measured. For the second case study (premature ejaculation treatments), there were over 100 RCTs but also several existing systematic reviews. Data for meta-analyses were extracted directly from existing systematic reviews with new RCT data added where available. For the final case study (cannabis cessation therapies), studies included a wide range of interventions and considerable variation in study populations and outcomes. A brief summary of the key findings for each study was presented and narrative synthesis used to summarise results for each pair of interventions compared. CONCLUSIONS: Rapid review methods need to be chosen to meet both the nature of the evidence base of a review and the challenges presented by the included studies. Appropriate methods should be chosen after an assessment of the evidence base.

Tramadol for premature ejaculation: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Tramadol is a centrally acting analgesic prescribed off-label for the treatment of premature ejaculation (PE). However, tramadol may cause addiction and difficulty in breathing and the beneficial effect of tramadol in PE is yet not supported by a high level of evidence. The purpose of this study was to systematically review the evidence from randomised controlled trials (RCT) for tramadol in the management of PE. METHODS: We searched bibliographic databases including MEDLINE to August 2014 for RCTs. The primary outcome was intra-vaginal ejaculatory latency time (IELT). Methodological quality of RCTs was assessed. Between-group differences in IELT and other outcomes were pooled across RCTs in a meta-analysis. Statistical and clinical between-trial heterogeneity was assessed. RESULTS: A total of eight RCTs that evaluated tramadol against a comparator were included. The majority of RCTs were of unclear methodological quality due to limited reporting. Pooled evidence (four RCTs, 721 participants), suggests that tramadol is significantly more effective than placebo at increasing IELT over eight to 12 weeks (p = 0.0007). However, a high level of statistical heterogeneity is evident (I-squared = 74%). Single RCT evidence indicates that tramadol is significantly more effective than paroxetine taken on-demand, sildenafil, lidocaine gel, or behavioural therapy on IELT in men with PE. Tramadol is associated with significantly more adverse events including: erectile dysfunction, constipation, nausea, headache, somnolence, dry mouth, dizziness, pruritus, and vomiting, than placebo or behavioural therapy over eight to 12 weeks of treatment. However, addiction problems or breathing difficulties reported by patients for PE is not assessed in the current evidence base. CONCLUSIONS: Tramadol appears effective in the treatment of PE. However, these findings should be interpreted with caution given the observed levels of between-trial heterogeneity and the reporting quality of the available evidence. The variability across placebo-controlled trials in terms of the tramadol dose evaluated and the treatment duration does not permit any assessment of a safe and effective minimum daily dose. The long-term effects and side effects, including addiction potential, for men with PE have not been evaluated in the current evidence base. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The review is registered on PROSPERO 2013: CRD42013005289 .

Systematic Review of Newborn Screening Programmes for Spinal Muscular Atrophy.

Spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is a genetic neuromuscular disorder causing the degeneration of motor neurons in the spinal cord. Recent studies suggest greater effectiveness of treatment in the presymptomatic stage. This systematic review synthesises findings from 37 studies (and 3 overviews) of newborn screening for SMA published up to November 2023 across 17 countries to understand the methodologies used; test accuracy performance; and timing, logistics and feasibility of screening. All studies screened for the homozygous deletion of SMN1 exon 7. Most (28 studies) used RT-PCR as the initial test on dried blood spots (DBSs), while nine studies also reported second-tier tests on DBSs for screen-positive cases. Babies testing positive on DBSs were referred for confirmatory testing via a range of methods. Observed SMA birth prevalence ranged from 1 in 4000 to 1 in 20,000. Most studies reported no false-negative or false-positive cases (therefore had a sensitivity and specificity of 100%). Five studies reported either one or two false-negative cases each (total of six cases; three compound heterozygotes and three due to system errors), although some false-negatives may have been missed due to lack of follow-up of negative results. Eleven studies reported false-positive cases, some being heterozygous carriers or potentially related to heparin use. Time to testing and treatment varied between studies. In conclusion, several countries have implemented newborn screening for SMA in the last 5 years using a variety of methods. Implementation considerations include processes for timely initial and confirmatory testing, partnerships between screening and neuromuscular centres, and timely treatment initiation.

Homeopathy for treatment of irritable bowel syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is a common, chronic disorder that leads to decreased health-related quality of life and work productivity. Evidence-based treatment guidelines have not been able to give guidance on the effects of homeopathic treatment for IBS because no systematic reviews have been carried out to assess the effectiveness of homeopathic treatment for IBS. Two types of homeopathic treatment were evaluated in this systematic review. In clinical homeopathy a specific remedy is prescribed for a specific condition. This differs from individualised homeopathic treatment, where a homeopathic remedy based on a person's individual symptoms is prescribed after a detailed consultation. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness and safety of homeopathic treatment for treating IBS. SEARCH METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, EMBASE, the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), the Allied and Complementary Medicine Database (AMED), Cochrane IBD/FBD Group Specialised Register, Cochrane Complementary Medicine Field Specialised Register and the database of the Homeopathic Library (Hom-inform) from inception to February 2013. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), cohort and case-control studies that compared homeopathic treatment with placebo, other control treatments, or usual care, in adults with IBS were considered for inclusion. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors independently assessed the risk of bias and extracted data. The primary outcome was global improvement in IBS. The overall quality of the evidence supporting this outcome was assessed using the GRADE criteria. We calculated the mean difference (MD) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for continuous outcomes and the risk ratio (RR) and 95% CI for dichotomous outcomes. MAIN RESULTS: Three RCTs (213 participants) were included. No cohort or case-control studies were identified. Two studies published in 1976 and 1979 compared clinical homeopathy (homeopathic remedy) to placebo for constipation-predominant IBS. One study published in 1990 compared individualised homeopathic treatment (consultation plus remedy) to usual care (defined as high doses of dicyclomine hydrochloride, faecal bulking agents and diet sheets asking the patient to take a high fibre diet) for the treatment of IBS in female patients. Due to the low quality of reporting in the included studies the risk of bias in all three studies was unclear on most criteria and high for some criteria. A meta-analysis of two small studies (129 participants with constipation-predominant IBS) found a statistically significant difference in global improvement between the homeopathic remedy asafoetida and placebo at a short-term follow-up of two weeks. Seventy-three per cent of patients in the homeopathy group improved compared to 45% of placebo patients (RR 1.61, 95% CI 1.18 to 2.18). There was no statistically significant difference in global improvement between the homeopathic remedies asafoetida plus nux vomica and placebo. Sixty-eight per cent of patients in the homeopathy group improved compared to 52% of placebo patients (1 study, N = 42, RR 1.31, 95% CI 0.80 to 2.15). GRADE analyses rated the overall quality of the evidence for the outcome global improvement as very low due to high or unknown risk of bias, short-term follow-up and sparse data. There was no statistically significant difference found between individualised homeopathic treatment and usual care (1 RCT, N = 20) for the outcome "feeling unwell", where the participant scored how "unwell" they felt before, and after treatment (MD 0.03; 95% CI -3.16 to 3.22). None of the included studies reported on adverse events. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: A pooled analysis of two small studies suggests a possible benefit for clinical homeopathy, using the remedy asafoetida, over placebo for people with constipation-predominant IBS. These results should be interpreted with caution due to the low quality of reporting in these trials, high or unknown risk of bias, short-term follow-up, and sparse data. One small study found no statistically difference between individualised homeopathy and usual care (defined as high doses of dicyclomine hydrochloride, faecal bulking agents and diet sheets advising a high fibre diet). No conclusions can be drawn from this study due to the low number of participants and the high risk of bias in this trial. In addition, it is likely that usual care has changed since this trial was conducted. Further high quality, adequately powered RCTs are required to assess the efficacy and safety of clinical and individualised homeopathy compared to placebo or usual care.

Desperately seeking dissonance: identifying the disconfirming case in qualitative evidence synthesis.

Actively seeking the disconfirming or deviant case is properly regarded as a hallmark of trustworthiness in primary qualitative research. The need to subject emergent theory to such testing is no less important within qualitative systematic reviews. There is, as yet, little available guidance on how to implement such strategies. Few researchers have described the practicalities of seeking the disconfirming case. We survey the methodological literature to gain a better understanding of how systematic reviews of qualitative research handle the disconfirming case. We reflect on our own experience from three recent qualitative evidence syntheses. We describe how reviewers might actively manufacture opportunities to identify discrepant or refutational findings. We conclude by outlining possible methods by which a team might integrate active seeking of a disconfirming case within the overall review process.

Association between stress, depression or anxiety and cancer: Rapid review of reviews.

Background: Several studies have suggested links between psychological stress, depression or anxiety, and cancer incidence or outcomes. Existing systematic reviews have addressed this question, with differing results. Aims: This rapid systematic umbrella review summarises existing reviews assessing the association between psychological stress, depression or anxiety and cancer incidence or cancer outcomes. Methods: Systematic reviews assessing stress, depression or anxiety and cancer were identified via searches of MEDLINE, PsycInfo and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from 2010 to November 2020. Results: Twelve systematic reviews were included, summarising cohort and case-control studies, most of which adjusted for confounders. Regarding cancer incidence, one large meta-analysis reported a significant association between depression/anxiety and cancer incidence, while another showed a non-significant trend. Two further meta-analyses reported significant associations between stressful life events and cancer incidence. Conversely, two meta-analyses of work stress showed no significant association with cancer incidence. Regarding outcomes among cancer patients, three meta-analyses reported significant associations between depression/anxiety and cancer mortality, while another reported a non-significant trend for depression and cancer recurrence. One meta-analysis reported a significant association between partner bereavement and cancer mortality, while another showed no significant association between work stress and cancer mortality. Conclusions: There is consistent evidence for an association between psychological stress, depression or anxiety and cancer incidence in general populations, and some evidence for an association with mortality in cancer populations. Future research may focus on confirmation of these findings, as well as the role of social support and stress-reducing interventions in buffering against these effects.

Systematic review of time lag between antibiotic use and rise of resistant pathogens among hospitalized adults in Europe.

Background: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) causes substantial health and economic burden to individuals, healthcare systems and societies globally. Understanding the temporal relationship between antibiotic consumption and antibiotic resistance in hospitalized patients can better inform antibiotic stewardship activities and the time frame for their evaluation. Objectives: This systematic review examined the temporal relationship between antibiotic use and development of antibiotic resistance for 42 pre-defined antibiotic and pathogen combinations in hospitalized adults in Europe. Methods: Searches in MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library and NIHR Centre for Reviews and Dissemination were undertaken from 2000 to August 2021. Pathogens of interest were Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Staphylococcus aureus, Enterococcus faecium, CoNS, Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Acinetobacter baumannii complex. Results: Twenty-eight ecological studies and one individual-level study were included. Ecological studies were predominantly retrospective in design (19 studies) and of reasonable (20 studies) to high (8 studies) methodological quality. Of the eight pathogens of interest, no relevant data were identified for S. pneumoniae and CoNS. Across all pathogens, the time-lag data from the 28 ecological studies showed a similar pattern, with the majority of studies reporting lags ranging from 0 to 6 months. Conclusions: Development of antibiotic resistance for the investigated antibiotic/pathogen combinations tends to occur over 0 to 6 months following exposure within European hospitals. This information could inform planning of antibiotic stewardship activities in hospital settings.

Romiplostim and eltrombopag for immune thrombocytopenia: methods for indirect comparison.

OBJECTIVES: Immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) causes increased platelet destruction and suboptimal platelet production, increasing risk of bleeding. This analysis uses a Bayesian metaregression model to indirectly compare effectiveness of the thrombopoietin mimetics romiplostim and eltrombopag for increasing platelet counts, and contrasts the results with those of non-Bayesian approaches. METHODS: Ten databases were searched during 2010. Placebo-controlled trials of 24 weeks' duration were included. An indirect comparison was undertaken using Bayesian metaregression, which includes all trials in a single model. This was compared with previous analyses in which data for each intervention were combined using simple pooling, logistic regression or meta-analysis, followed by indirect comparison of pooled values using the Bucher method. RESULTS: Two trials of romiplostim and one of eltrombopag were included. The indirect evidence suggests romiplostim significantly improves overall platelet response compared with eltrombopag. Bayesian metaregression gave an odds ratio (OR) for eltrombopag versus romiplostim of 0.11 (95 percent credible interval 0.02-0.66); p values and Bayesian posterior probabilities ranged from 0.01 to 0.05 for all analyses. There was no significant difference in durable platelet response in any of the analyses, although the direction of effect favored romiplostim (OR = 0.15; 95 percent credible interval, 0.01-1.88); p values and Bayesian posterior probabilities ranged from 0.08 to 0.40 across analyses. Results were relatively consistent between analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Bayesian metaregression generated similar results to other indirect comparison methods, and may be considered the most robust as it incorporates all data in a single model and accounts appropriately for parameter uncertainty.

The Incidence and Costs of Adverse Events Associated with Antidepressants: Results from a Systematic Review, Network Meta-Analysis and Multi-Country Economic Model.

Purpose: There is variation in the safety profile of antidepressants. Rates of adverse events along with the costs of treating them can be an important factor influencing the choice of depression treatment. This study sought to estimate the comparative safety of commonly prescribed antidepressants, and how the costs of treating these varied across European countries. Methods: A systematic literature review was conducted (in Medline, Embase, PsycINFO and CENTRAL) to identify placebo-controlled trials reporting rates of at least one type of sexual dysfunction, weight change, insomnia, anxiety, and anhedonia. Eight antidepressants were considered: duloxetine, escitalopram, fluoxetine, paroxetine, sertraline, trazodone, venlafaxine, and vortioxetine. This evidence was synthesised via Bayesian random effects network meta-analyses to provide comparative estimates of safety. A systematic search identified country-specific costs of managing depression and adverse events of antidepressants. Evidence on costs and safety was combined in an economic model to provide country-specific costs for Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Romania, Slovakia, Portugal, and Poland. Results: Trazodone had the lowest rates of both insomnia (odds ratio 0.66, 95% credible interval 0.31 to 1.38) and anxiety (0.13, <0.01 to 1.80). All antidepressants were associated with increased rates of sexual dysfunction relative to placebo. Weight change was largest for fluoxetine (kg change -1.01, -1.40 to -0.60) and sertraline (-1.00, -1.36 to -0.65), although heterogeneity was extreme for this outcome. No evidence was identified for anhedonia. Total costs were lowest for trazodone in all nine of the countries evaluated. This was primarily due to reduced rates of treatment discontinuation. Conclusion: Trazodone generally had the best safety profile of the antidepressants evaluated. This led to healthcare costs being lowest for trazodone in all nine European countries, emphasising the importance of considering rates of adverse events when choosing a pharmacological treatment to treat symptoms of depression.

Diagnostic accuracy of conventional oral examination for detecting oral cavity cancer and potentially malignant disorders in patients with clinically evident oral lesions: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

This systematic review evaluates the diagnostic accuracy of conventional oral examination (COE) versus incisional or excisional biopsy for the diagnosis of malignant and/or dysplastic lesions in patients with clinically evident lesions. Searches were conducted across five electronic databases from inception to January 2020. Meta-analyses were undertaken, where appropriate. Among 18 included studies, 14 studies were included in the meta-analysis, giving summary estimates for COE of 71% sensitivity and 85% specificity for the diagnosis of dysplastic and/or malignant lesions. The pooled diagnostic accuracy of identifying malignant-only lesions was reported in seven studies, giving a pooled estimate of 88% sensitivity and 81% specificity. Diagnostic accuracy of different types of dental/medical professionals in identifying dysplastic or malignant lesions gave varying estimates of sensitivity and specificity across three studies. Further research is needed to improve the diagnostic accuracy of COE for early detection of dysplastic and malignant oral lesions.

Imatinib as adjuvant therapy for gastrointestinal stromal tumors: a systematic review.

The high risk of recurrence in resected gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) highlights the need for effective adjuvant treatment. This review evaluates the clinical efficacy and safety of imatinib for adjuvant treatment of localized KIT (CD117)-positive resected GIST. Relevant studies were identified by searching several electronic databases from inception to August 2009. Searches were supplemented by examining bibliographies of included studies, searching conference proceedings and consulting experts. All study types were included. Methodological quality was assessed using published criteria. Sixteen studies met the eligibility criteria, comprising one randomized controlled trial (RCT), three phase II studies, three cohort studies and nine case reports. In the RCT, the estimated 1-year recurrence-free survival was 98% [95% confidence interval (CI), 96-100] in the imatinib group versus 83% (95% CI, 78-88) in the placebo group, corresponding to a 65% reduction in the risk of disease recurrence (hazard ratio, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.22-0.53; p < 0.0001) with an absolute recurrence-free survival difference of 15% at 1 year. Other nonrandomized studies reported similar outcomes demonstrating that imatinib used in the adjuvant setting improved recurrence-free survival. The optimum duration of adjuvant treatment, safety and efficacy is currently under investigation with two ongoing RCTs (EORTC 62024 and SSG XV111) and two nonrandomized studies (NCT00867113 and NCT00171977). This study adds to the evidence (based on one RCT and a number of observational studies) that GIST patients treated with adjuvant imatinib therapy show an improvement in recurrence-free survival compared to placebo or no treatment after resection of KIT-positive localized GIST with tolerable toxicity.

Granulocyte colony-stimulating factors for febrile neutropenia prophylaxis following chemotherapy: systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Febrile neutropenia (FN) occurs following myelosuppressive chemotherapy and is associated with morbidity, mortality, costs, and chemotherapy reductions and delays. Granulocyte colony-stimulating factors (G-CSFs) stimulate neutrophil production and may reduce FN incidence when given prophylactically following chemotherapy. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis assessed the effectiveness of G-CSFs (pegfilgrastim, filgrastim or lenograstim) in reducing FN incidence in adults undergoing chemotherapy for solid tumours or lymphoma. G-CSFs were compared with no primary G-CSF prophylaxis and with one another. Nine databases were searched in December 2009. Meta-analysis used a random effects model due to heterogeneity. RESULTS: Twenty studies compared primary G-CSF prophylaxis with no primary G-CSF prophylaxis: five studies of pegfilgrastim; ten of filgrastim; and five of lenograstim. All three G-CSFs significantly reduced FN incidence, with relative risks of 0.30 (95% CI: 0.14 to 0.65) for pegfilgrastim, 0.57 (95% CI: 0.48 to 0.69) for filgrastim, and 0.62 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.88) for lenograstim. Overall, the relative risk of FN for any primary G-CSF prophylaxis versus no primary G-CSF prophylaxis was 0.51 (95% CI: 0.41 to 0.62). In terms of comparisons between different G-CSFs, five studies compared pegfilgrastim with filgrastim. FN incidence was significantly lower for pegfilgrastim than filgrastim, with a relative risk of 0.66 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.98). CONCLUSIONS: Primary prophylaxis with G-CSFs significantly reduces FN incidence in adults undergoing chemotherapy for solid tumours or lymphoma. Pegfilgrastim reduces FN incidence to a significantly greater extent than filgrastim.

Cost-effectiveness of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor prophylaxis for febrile neutropenia in breast cancer in the United Kingdom.

OBJECTIVE: We report a cost-effectiveness evaluation of granulocyte colony-stimulating factors (G-CSFs) for the prevention of febrile neutropenia (FN) after chemotherapy in the United Kingdom (UK). METHODS: A mathematical model was constructed simulating the experience of women with breast cancer undergoing chemotherapy. Three strategies were modeled: primary prophylaxis (G-CSFs administered in all cycles), secondary prophylaxis (G-CSFs administered in all cycles after an FN event), and no G-CSF prophylaxis. Three G-CSFs were considered: filgrastim, lenograstim, and pegfilgrastim. Costs were taken from UK databases and utility values from published sources. A systematic review provided data on G-CSF efficacy. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses examined the effects of uncertainty in model parameters. RESULTS: In the UK, base-case analysis with a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of £20K per quality-adjusted life year gained and also using list prices, the most cost-effective strategy was primary prophylaxis with pegfilgrastim for a patient with baseline FN risk greater than 38%, secondary prophylaxis with pegfilgrastim for baseline FN risk 11% to 37%, and no G-CSFs for baseline FN risk less than 11%. Using a WTP threshold of £30K and list prices, primary prophylaxis with pegfilgrastim was cost-effective for baseline FN risks greater than 29%. In all analyses, pegfilgrastim dominated filgrastim and lenograstim. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that higher WTP threshold, younger age, earlier stage at diagnosis, or reduced G-CSF prices result in G-CSF prophylaxis being cost-effective at lower baseline FN risk levels. CONCLUSION: Pegfilgrastim was the most cost-effective G-CSF. The most cost-effective strategy (primary or secondary prophylaxis) was dependent on the FN risk level for an individual patient, patient age and stage at diagnosis, and G-CSF price.

Consistency between direct and indirect trial evidence: is direct evidence always more reliable?

OBJECTIVES: To present a case study involving the reduction in incidence of febrile neutropenia (FN) after chemotherapy with granulocyte colony-stimulating factors (G-CSFs), illustrating difficulties that may arise when following the common preference for direct evidence over indirect evidence. METHODS: Evidence of the efficacy of treatments was identified from two previous systematic reviews. We used Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate relative treatment effects based on direct evidence, indirect evidence, and both pooled together. We checked for inconsistency between direct and indirect evidence and explored the role of one specific trial using cross-validation. A subsequent review identified further studies not available at the time of the original analysis. We repeated the analyses on the enlarged evidence base. RESULTS: We found substantial inconsistency in the original evidence base. The median odds ratio of FN for primary pegfilgrastim versus no primary G-CSF was 0.06 (95% credible interval: 0.02-0.19) based on direct evidence, but 0.27 (95% credible interval: 0.13-0.53) based on indirect evidence (P value for consistency hypothesis 0.027). The additional trials were consistent with the earlier indirect, rather than the direct, evidence, and there was no inconsistency between direct and indirect estimates in the updated evidence. The earlier inconsistency was due to one trial comparing primary pegfilgrastim with no primary G-CSF. Predictive cross-validation showed that this study was inconsistent with the evidence as a whole and with other trials making this comparison. CONCLUSIONS: Both the Cochrane Handbook and the NICE Methods Guide express a preference for direct evidence. A more robust strategy, which is in line with the accepted principles of evidence synthesis, would be to combine all relevant and appropriate information, whether direct or indirect.

A worked example of "best fit" framework synthesis: a systematic review of views concerning the taking of some potential chemopreventive agents.

BACKGROUND: A variety of different approaches to the synthesis of qualitative data are advocated in the literature. The aim of this paper is to describe the application of a pragmatic method of qualitative evidence synthesis and the lessons learned from adopting this "best fit" framework synthesis approach. METHODS: An evaluation of framework synthesis as an approach to the qualitative systematic review of evidence exploring the views of adults to the taking of potential agents within the context of the primary prevention of colorectal cancer. RESULTS: Twenty papers from North America, Australia, the UK and Europe met the criteria for inclusion. Fourteen themes were identified a priori from a related, existing conceptual model identified in the literature, which were then used to code the extracted data. Further analysis resulted in the generation of a more sophisticated model with additional themes. The synthesis required a combination of secondary framework and thematic analysis approaches and was conducted within a health technology assessment timeframe. CONCLUSION: The novel and pragmatic "best fit" approach to framework synthesis developed and described here was found to be fit for purpose. Future research should seek to test further this approach to qualitative data synthesis.

Schizophrenia Treatment with Second-Generation Antipsychotics: A Multi-Country Comparison of the Costs of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Adverse Events and Weight Gain.

PURPOSE: Cardiovascular and metabolic adverse events are costly to treat, and their incidence is increased amongst people with schizophrenia, with different rates observed for second-generation antipsychotics. To inform treatment choice, this study sought to estimate the lifetime costs associated with antipsychotic choice, and how these costs varied across European countries. METHODS: Systematic searches were conducted to identify evidence on effectiveness and costs. A Markov model was developed to assess the costs of ten antipsychotics: aripiprazole, brexpiprazole, cariprazine, lumateperone, lurasidone, olanzapine, paliperidone, quetiapine, risperidone and ziprasidone. Costs were obtained for seven countries: Italy, Hungary, France, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the UK. The costs considered were adverse events (including diabetes, myocardial infarction, stroke and weight gain), drug costs, relapse, treatment discontinuation and schizophrenia management. Two adult populations were modelled; initiating either acute or maintenance treatment, with a lifetime horizon for both. RESULTS: Lurasidone was associated with the lowest lifetime costs amongst patients initiating acute treatment compared to all other atypical antipsychotics considered. The second lowest costs were for ziprasidone. These results were observed for all seven countries. The main drivers of cost differences were rates of diabetes and cardiovascular diseases, which were lowest for lurasidone, followed by ziprasidone then lumateperone. Costs for managing weight gain were lowest for lurasidone and ziprasidone. Similar results were observed for patients initiating maintenance treatment. CONCLUSION: Diabetes and cardiovascular events are large drivers of lifetime costs for people with schizophrenia. Lurasidone is predicted to have the lowest rates of these adverse events, and so the lowest costs amongst patients initiating acute treatment in seven European countries compared to nine other antipsychotics. Future research should investigate the individual costs of relapse management, including differences in the costs and proportions of hospitalizations.