Climate change is catchy--but when will it really hurt?

Concern and general awareness about the impacts of climate change in all sectors of the social-ecological-economic system is growing as a result of improved climate science products and information, as well as increased media coverage of the apparent manifestations of the phenomenon in our society. However, scales of climate variability and change, in space and time, are often confused and so attribution of impacts on various sectors, including the health sector, can be misunderstood and misrepresented. In this review, we assess the mechanistic links between climate and infectious diseases in particular, and consider how this relationship varies, and may vary according to different time scales, especially for aetiologically climate-linked diseases. While climate varies in the medium (inter-annual) time frame, this variability itself may be oscillating and/or trending on cyclical and long-term (climate change) scales because of regional and global scale climate phenomena such as the El-Nino southern oscillation coupled with global-warming drivers of climate change. As several studies have shown, quantifying and modelling these linkages and associations at appropriate time and space scales is both necessary and increasingly feasible with improved climate science products and better epidemiological data. The application of this approach is considered for South Africa, and the need for a more concerted effort in this regard is supported.

In vivo activation analysis of spinal calcium using 25 keV neutrons.

The applicability of 25 keV neutrons to the in vivo activation analysis of spinal calcium is examined both theoretically and experimentally. It is shown that the use of this energy results in an increase in sensitivity over higher energy neutrons so that patient dose may be significantly reduced.

Updated measurements from CREAM & CREDO & implications for environment & shielding models.

Flight data obtained between 1995 and 1997 from the Cosmic Radiation Environment Monitors CREAM & CREDO carried on UoSat-3, Space Shuttle, STRV-1a (Space Technology Research Vehicle) and APEX (Advanced Photovoltaic and Electronics Experiment Spacecraft) have been added to the dataset affording coverage since 1990. The modulation of cosmic rays and evolution of the South Atlantic Anomaly are observed, the former comprising a factor three increase at high latitudes and the latter a general increase accompanied by a westward drift. Comparison of particle fluxes and linear energy transfer spectra is made with improved environment & radiation transport calculations which account for shield distributions and secondary particles. While there is an encouraging convergence between predictions and observations, significant improvements are still required, particularly in the treatrnent of locally produced secondary particles.

Assessment of the cosmic radiation exposure on Canadian-based routes.

As a result of the recent recommendations of the ICRP-60 and in anticipation of possible regulation on occupational exposure of commercial aircrew, a two-phase investigation was carried out over a 1-y period to determine the total dose equivalent on representative Canadian-based flight routes. In the first phase of the study, dedicated scientific flights on a Northern round-trip route between Ottawa and Resolute Bay provided the opportunity to characterize the complex mixed-radiation field and to intercompare various instrumentation using both a conventional suite of powered detectors and passive dosimetry. In the second phase, volunteer aircrew carried (passive) neutron bubble detectors during their routine flight duties. From these measurements, the total dose equivalent was derived for a given route with a knowledge of the neutron fraction as determined from the scientific flights and computer code (CARI-3C) calculations. This study has yielded an extensive database of over 3,100 measurements providing the total dose equivalent for 385 different routes. By folding in flight frequency information and the accumulated flight hours, the annual occupational exposures of 20 flight crew have been determined. This study has indicated that most Canadian-based domestic and international aircrew will exceed the proposed annual ICRP-60 public limit of 1 mSv y(-1) but will be well below the occupational limit of 20 mSv y(-1).

Implications for space radiation environment models from CREAM & CREDO measurements over half a solar cycle.

Flight data obtained between 1990 and 1997 from the Cosmic Radiation Environment Monitors CREAM & CREDO carried on UoSAT-3, Space Shuttle, STRV-1a (Space Technology Research Vehicle) and APEX (Advanced Photovoltaic and Electronics Experiment Spacecraft) provide coverage over half a solar cycle. The modulation of cosmic rays and evolution of the South Atlantic Anomaly are observed, the former comprising a factor of three increase at high latitudes and the latter a general increase accompanied by a north-westward drift. Comparison of particle fluxes and linear energy transfer (LET) spectra is made with improved environment & radiation transport calculations which account for shield distributions and secondary particles. While there is an encouraging convergence between predictions and observations, significant improvements are still required, particularly in the treatment of locally produced secondary particles. Solar-particle events during this time period have LET spectra significantly below the October 1989 event which has been proposed as a worst case model.

Experimental and computational determination of neutron dose equivalent around radiotherapy accelerators.

An experimental and computational investigation of the neutron dose equivalent in the treatment room and maze of various radiotherapy accelerators in Canada was completed. A bubble detector was selected for the bulk of the measurements due to its relative insensitivity to gamma radiation. The rooms and accelerator heads were modelled using the MCNP4B Monte Carlo radiation transport code, modified with a photoneutron patch. The results of the investigation showed generally good agreement between the experiments. Monte Carlo and analytical approximations to the neutron dose equivalent, and suggest that if the analytical approximations are used carefully they may be substituted for more costly experimental or Monte Carlo determinations.

Effectiveness of customised neutron shielding in the maze of radiotherapy accelerators.

An investigation was performed to examine the neutron dose equivalent in a radiotherapy maze lined with a customised neutron shielding material. The accelerator investigated was a Varian Clinac 2100C/D using 18 MV photons, and the neutron shielding utilised at this centre was Premadex commercially available neutron shielding. Based on Monte Carlo simulations, properly installed customised neutron shielding may reduce the neutron dose equivalent by up to a factor of 8 outside the maze, depending upon the installation. In addition, it was determined that the neutron dose near the entrance to the maze may be reduced by approximately 40% by using customised neutron shielding in the maze, as compared with a facility not using this shielding. This would have a positive dose-saving effect in doorless maze designs.

Cosmic radiation exposure on Canadian-based commercial airline routes.

As a result of the recent recommendations of ICRP 60 and in anticipation of possible regulation on occupational exposure of commercial aircrew, a two-part investigation was carried out over a one-year period to determine the total dose equivalent on representative Canadian-based flight routes. As part of the study, a dedicated scientific measurement flight (using both a conventional suite of powered detectors and passive dosimetry) was used to characterise the complex mixed radiation field and to intercompare the various instrumentation. In the other part of the study, volunteer aircrew carried (passive) neutron bubble detectors during their routine flight duties. From these measurements, the total dose equivalent was derived for a given route with a knowledge of the neutron fraction as determined from the scientific flight and computer code (CARI-LF) calculations. This investigation has yielded an extensive database of over 3100 measurements providing the total dose equivalent for 385 different routes. By folding in flight frequency information and the accumulated flight hours, the annual occupational exposures of 26 flight crew have also been determined. This study has indicated that most Canadian-based domestic and international aircrew will exceed the proposed annual ICRP 60 public limit of 1 mSv.y-1, but will he well below the occupational limit of 20 mSv.y-1.

Characterisation of neutron-sensitive bubble detectors for application in the measurement of jet aircrew exposure to natural background radiation.

A survey of the natural background dose equivalent received by Canadian Forces aircrew was conducted using neutron-sensitive bubble detectors (BDs) as the primary detection tool. Since this study was a new application for these detectors, the BD response to neutron dose equivalent (RD) was extended from thermal to 500 MeV in neutron energy. Based upon the extended RD, it was shown that the manufacturer's calibration can be scaled by 1.5 +/- 0.5 to give a BD sensitivity that takes into account recently recommended fluence-to-neutron dose equivalent conversion functions and the cosmogenic neutron spectrum encountered at jet altitudes. An investigation of the effects of systematic bias caused by the cabin environment (i.e., temperature, pressure and relative humidity) on the in-flight measurements was also conducted. Both simulated and actual aircraft climate tests indicated that the detectors are insensitive to the pressure and relative humidity variations encountered during routine jet aircraft operations. Long term conditioning tests also confirmed that the BD-PND model of detector is sensitive to variations in temperature to within +/- 20%. As part of the testing process, the in-flight measurements also demonstrated that the neutron dose equivalent is distributed uniformly throughout a Boeing 707 jet aircraft, indicating that both pilots and flight attendants are exposed to the same neutron field intensity to within experimental uncertainty.