Impact of transnational land acquisitions on local food security and dietary diversity.

Foreign investors have acquired approximately 90 million hectares of land for agriculture over the past two decades. The effects of these investments on local food security remain unknown. While additional cropland and intensified agriculture could potentially increase crop production, preferential targeting of prime agricultural land and transitions toward export-bound crops might affect local access to nutritious foods. We test these hypotheses in a global systematic analysis of the food security implications of existing land concessions. We combine agricultural, remote sensing, and household survey data (available in 11 sub-Saharan African countries) with georeferenced information on 160 land acquisitions in 39 countries. We find that the intended changes in cultivated crop types generally imply transitions toward energy-rich, but nutrient-poor, crops that are predominantly destined for export markets. Specific impacts on food production and access vary substantially across regions. Deals likely have little effect on food security in eastern Europe and Latin America, where they predominantly occur within agricultural areas with current export-oriented crops, and where agriculture would have both expanded and intensified regardless of the land deals. This contrasts with Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, where deals are associated with both an expansion and intensification (in Asia) of crop production. Deals in these regions also shift production away from local staples and coincide with a gradually decreasing dietary diversity among the surveyed households in sub-Saharan Africa. Together, these findings point to a paradox, where land deals can simultaneously increase crop production and threaten local food security.

The global value of water in agriculture.

Major environmental functions and human needs critically depend on water. In regions of the world affected by water scarcity economic activities can be constrained by water availability, leading to competition both among sectors and between human uses and environmental needs. While the commodification of water remains a contentious political issue, the valuation of this natural resource is sometime viewed as a strategy to avoid water waste. Likewise, water markets have been invoked as a mechanism to allocate water to economically most efficient uses. The value of water, however, remains difficult to estimate because water markets and market prices exist only in few regions of the world. Despite numerous attempts at estimating the value of water in the absence of markets (i.e., the "shadow price"), a global spatially explicit assessment of the value of water in agriculture is still missing. Here we propose a data-parsimonious biophysical framework to determine the value generated by water in irrigated agriculture and highlight its global spatiotemporal patterns. We find that in much of the world the actual crop distribution does not maximize agricultural water value.

Potential for sustainable irrigation expansion in a 3 °C warmer climate.

Climate change is expected to affect crop production worldwide, particularly in rain-fed agricultural regions. It is still unknown how irrigation water needs will change in a warmer planet and where freshwater will be locally available to expand irrigation without depleting freshwater resources. Here, we identify the rain-fed cropping systems that hold the greatest potential for investment in irrigation expansion because water will likely be available to suffice irrigation water demand. Using projections of renewable water availability and irrigation water demand under warming scenarios, we identify target regions where irrigation expansion may sustain crop production under climate change. Our results also show that global rain-fed croplands hold significant potential for sustainable irrigation expansion and that different irrigation strategies have different irrigation expansion potentials. Under a 3 °C warming, we find that a soft-path irrigation expansion with small monthly water storage and deficit irrigation has the potential to expand irrigated land by 70 million hectares and feed 300 million more people globally. We also find that a hard-path irrigation expansion with large annual water storage can sustainably expand irrigation up to 350 million hectares, while producing food for 1.4 billion more people globally. By identifying where irrigation can be expanded under a warmer climate, this work may serve as a starting point for investigating socioeconomic factors of irrigation expansion and may guide future research and resources toward those agricultural communities and water management institutions that will most need to adapt to climate change.

CAM plant expansion favored indirectly by asymmetric climate warming and increased rainfall variability.

Recent observational evidence suggests that nighttime temperatures are increasing faster than daytime temperatures, while in some regions precipitation events are becoming less frequent and more intense. The combined ecological impacts of these climatic changes on crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) plants and their interactions with other functional groups (i.e., grass communities) remain poorly understood. Here we developed a growth chamber experiment to investigate how two CAM-grass communities in desert ecosystems of the southwestern United States and northern Mexico respond to asymmetric warming and increasing rainfall variability. Grasses generally showed competitive advantages over CAM plants with increasing rainfall variability under ambient temperature conditions. In contrast, asymmetric warming caused mortality of both grass species (Bouteloua eriopoda and Bouteloua curtipendula) in both rainfall treatments due to enhanced drought stress. Grass mortality indirectly favored CAM plants even though the biomass of both CAM species Cylindropuntia imbricata and Opuntia phaeacantha significantly decreased. The stem's volume-to-surface ratio of C. imbricata was significantly higher in mixture than in monoculture under ambient temperature (both P < 0.0014); however, the difference became insignificant under asymmetric warming (both P > 0.1625), suggesting that warming weakens the negative effects of interspecific competition on CAM plant growth. Our findings suggest that while the increase in intra-annual rainfall variability enhances grass productivity, asymmetric warming may lead to grass mortality, thereby indirectly favoring the expansion of co-existing CAM plants. This study provides novel experimental evidence showing how the ongoing changes in global warming and rainfall variability affect CAM-grass growth and interactions in dryland ecosystems.

Food Inequality, Injustice, and Rights.

As humanity continues to grow in size, questions related to human rights and the existing unequal distribution of food resources have taken on greater urgency. Is inequality in food access unjust or a regrettable consequence of the geographic distribution of biophysical resources? To what extent are there obligations to redress inequalities in access to food? We draw from a human rights perspective to identify obligations associated with access to food and develop a quantitative framework to evaluate the fulfillment of the human right to food. We discuss the capacity of socioeconomic development to reduce inequalities in per capita food availability with respect to the distribution of biophysical resources among countries. Although, at the country level, international trade shows the capacity to reduce human rights deficits by increasing food availability in countries with limited food production, whether it actually improves the fulfillment of the right to food will depend on within-country inequality.

Making ecological models adequate.

Critical evaluation of the adequacy of ecological models is urgently needed to enhance their utility in developing theory and enabling environmental managers and policymakers to make informed decisions. Poorly supported management can have detrimental, costly or irreversible impacts on the environment and society. Here, we examine common issues in ecological modelling and suggest criteria for improving modelling frameworks. An appropriate level of process description is crucial to constructing the best possible model, given the available data and understanding of ecological structures. Model details unsupported by data typically lead to over parameterisation and poor model performance. Conversely, a lack of mechanistic details may limit a model's ability to predict ecological systems' responses to management. Ecological studies that employ models should follow a set of model adequacy assessment protocols that include: asking a series of critical questions regarding state and control variable selection, the determinacy of data, and the sensitivity and validity of analyses. We also need to improve model elaboration, refinement and coarse graining procedures to better understand the relevancy and adequacy of our models and the role they play in advancing theory, improving hind and forecasting, and enabling problem solving and management.

Non-linear shift from grassland to shrubland in temperate barrier islands.

Woody plant encroachment into grasslands is a major land cover change taking place in many regions of the world, including arctic, alpine and desert ecosystems. This change in plant dominance is also affecting coastal ecosystems, including barrier islands, which are known for being vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In the last century, the woody plant species Morella cerifera L. (Myricaceae), has encroached into grass covered swales in many of the barrier islands of Virginia along the Atlantic seaboard. The abrupt shift to shrub cover in these islands could result from positive feedbacks with the physical environment, though the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. We use a combination of experimental and modeling approaches to investigate the role of climate warming and the ability of M. cerifera to mitigate its microclimate thereby leading to the emergence of alternative stable states in barrier island vegetation. Nighttime air temperatures were significantly higher in myrtle shrublands than grasslands, particularly in the winter season. The difference in the mean of the 5% and 10% lowest minimum temperatures between shrubland and grassland calculated from two independent datasets ranged from 1.3 to 2.4°C. The model results clearly show that a small increase in near-surface temperature can induce a non-linear shift in ecosystem state from a stable state with no shrubs to an alternative stable state dominated by M. cerifera. This modeling framework improves our understanding and prediction of barrier island vegetation stability and resilience under climate change, and highlights the existence of important nonlinearities and hystereses that limit the reversibility of this ongoing shift in vegetation dominance.

Resilience and reactivity of global food security.

The escalating food demand by a growing and increasingly affluent global population is placing unprecedented pressure on the limited land and water resources of the planet, underpinning concerns over global food security and its sensitivity to shocks arising from environmental fluctuations, trade policies, and market volatility. Here, we use country-specific demographic records along with food production and trade data for the past 25 y to evaluate the stability and reactivity of the relationship between population dynamics and food availability. We develop a framework for the assessment of the resilience and the reactivity of the coupled population-food system and suggest that over the past two decades both its sensitivity to external perturbations and susceptibility to instability have increased.

Coastal regime shifts: rapid responses of coastal wetlands to changes in mangrove cover.

Global changes are causing broad-scale shifts in vegetation communities worldwide, including coastal habitats where the borders between mangroves and salt marsh are in flux. Coastal habitats provide numerous ecosystem services of high economic value, but the consequences of variation in mangrove cover are poorly known. We experimentally manipulated mangrove cover in large plots to test a set of linked hypotheses regarding the effects of changes in mangrove cover. We found that changes in mangrove cover had strong effects on microclimate, plant community, sediment accretion, soil organic content, and bird abundance within 2 yr. At higher mangrove cover, wind speed declined and light interception by vegetation increased. Air and soil temperatures had hump-shaped relationships with mangrove cover. The cover of salt marsh plants decreased at higher mangrove cover. Wrack cover, the distance that wrack was distributed from the water's edge, and sediment accretion decreased at higher mangrove cover. Soil organic content increased with mangrove cover. Wading bird abundance decreased at higher mangrove cover. Many of these relationships were non-linear, with the greatest effects when mangrove cover varied from zero to intermediate values, and lesser effects when mangrove cover varied from intermediate to high values. Temporal and spatial variation in measured variables often peaked at intermediate mangrove cover, with ecological consequences that are largely unexplored. Because different processes varied in different ways with mangrove cover, the "optimum" cover of mangroves from a societal point of view will depend on which ecosystem services are most desired.

Effects of competition on induction of crassulacean acid metabolism in a facultative CAM plant.

Abiotic drivers of environmental stress have been found to induce CAM expression (nocturnal carboxylation) in facultative CAM species such as Mesembryanthemum crystallinum. The role played by biotic factors such as competition with non-CAM species in affecting CAM expression, however, remains largely understudied. This research investigated the effects of salt and water conditions on the competition between M. crystallinum and the C3 grass Bromus mollis with which it is found to coexist in California's coastal grasslands. We also investigated the extent to which CAM expression in M. crystallinum was affected by the intensity of the competition with B. mollis. We found that M. crystallinum had a competitive advantage over B. mollis in drought and saline conditions, while B. mollis exerted strong competitive effects on M. crystallinum in access to light and soil nutrients in high water conditions. This strong competitive effect even outweighed the favorable effects of salt or water additions in increasing the biomass and productivity of M. crystallinum in mixture. Regardless of salt conditions, M. crystallinum did not switch to CAM photosynthesis in response to this strong competitive effect from B. mollis. Disturbance (i.e., grass cutting) reduced the competitive pressure by B. mollis and allowed for CAM expression in M. crystallinum when it was grown mixed with B. mollis. We suggest that moderate competition with other functional groups can enhance CAM expression in M. crystallinum, thereby affecting its plasticity and ability to cope with biological stress.

Water-controlled wealth of nations.

Population growth is in general constrained by food production, which in turn depends on the access to water resources. At a country level, some populations use more water than they control because of their ability to import food and the virtual water required for its production. Here, we investigate the dependence of demographic growth on available water resources for exporting and importing nations. By quantifying the carrying capacity of nations on the basis of calculations of the virtual water available through the food trade network, we point to the existence of a global water unbalance. We suggest that current export rates will not be maintained and consequently we question the long-term sustainability of the food trade system as a whole. Water-rich regions are likely to soon reduce the amount of virtual water they export, thus leaving import-dependent regions without enough water to sustain their populations. We also investigate the potential impact of possible scenarios that might mitigate these effects through (i) cooperative interactions among nations whereby water-rich countries maintain a tiny fraction of their food production available for export, (ii) changes in consumption patterns, and (iii) a positive feedback between demographic growth and technological innovations. We find that these strategies may indeed reduce the vulnerability of water-controlled societies.

Global land and water grabbing.

Societal pressure on the global land and freshwater resources is increasing as a result of the rising food demand by the growing human population, dietary changes, and the enhancement of biofuel production induced by the rising oil prices and recent changes in United States and European Union bioethanol policies. Many countries and corporations have started to acquire relatively inexpensive and productive agricultural land located in foreign countries, as evidenced by the dramatic increase in the number of transnational land deals between 2005 and 2009. Often known as "land grabbing," this phenomenon is associated with an appropriation of freshwater resources that has never been assessed before. Here we gather land-grabbing data from multiple sources and use a hydrological model to determine the associated rates of freshwater grabbing. We find that land and water grabbing are occurring at alarming rates in all continents except Antarctica. The per capita volume of grabbed water often exceeds the water requirements for a balanced diet and would be sufficient to improve food security and abate malnourishment in the grabbed countries. It is found that about 0.31 × 10(12) m(3) · y(-1) of green water (i.e., rainwater) and up to 0.14 × 10(12) m(3) · y(-1) of blue water (i.e., irrigation water) are appropriated globally for crop and livestock production in 47 × 10(6) ha of grabbed land worldwide (i.e., in 90% of the reported global grabbed land).

Hydraulic lift as a determinant of tree-grass coexistence on savannas.

The coexistence of woody plants and grasses in savannas is determined by a complex set of interacting factors that determine access to resources and demographic dynamics, under the control of external drivers and vegetation feedbacks with the physical environment. Existing theories explain coexistence mainly as an effect of competitive relations and/or disturbances. However, theoretical studies on the way facilitative interactions resulting from hydraulic lift affect tree-grass coexistence and the range of environmental conditions in which savannas are stable are still lacking. We investigated the role of hydraulic lift in the stability of tree-grass coexistence in savannas. To that end, we developed a new mechanistic model that accounts for both competition for soil water in the shallow soil and fire-induced disturbance. We found that hydraulic lift favors grasses, which scavenge the water lifted by woody plants. Thus, hydraulic lift expands (at the expenses of woodlands) the range of environmental conditions in which savannas are stable. These results indicate that hydraulic lift can be an important mechanism responsible for the coexistence of woody plants and grasses in savannas. Grass facilitation by trees through the process of hydraulic lift could allow savannas to persist stably in mesic regions that would otherwise exhibit a forest cover.

The role of vegetation-microclimate feedback in promoting shrub encroachment in the northern Chihuahuan desert.

Many arid and semi-arid landscapes around the world are affected by a shift from grassland to shrubland vegetation, presumably induced by climate warming, increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and/or changing land use. This major change in vegetation cover is likely sustained by positive feedbacks with the physical environment. Recent research has focused on a feedback with microclimate, whereby cold intolerant shrubs increase the minimum nocturnal temperatures in their surroundings. Despite the rich literature on the impact of land cover change on local climate conditions, changes in microclimate resulting from shrub expansion into desert grasslands have remained poorly investigated. It is unclear to what extent such a feedback can affect the maximum extent of shrub expansion and the configuration of a stable encroachment front. Here, we focus on the case of the northern Chihuahuan desert, where creosotebush (Larrea tridentata) has been replacing grasslands over the past 100-150 years. We use a process-based coupled atmosphere-vegetation model to investigate the role of this feedback in sustaining shrub encroachment in the region. Simulations indicate that the feedback allows juvenile shrubs to establish in the grassland during average years and, once established, reduce their vulnerability to freeze-induced mortality by creating a warmer microclimate. Such a feedback is crucial in extreme cold winters as it may reduce shrub mortality. We identify the existence of a critical zone in the surroundings of the encroachment front, in which vegetation dynamics are bistable: in this zone, vegetation can be stable both as grassland and as shrubland. The existence of these alternative stable states explains why in most cases the shift from grass to shrub cover is found to be abrupt and often difficult to revert.

Indicators of collapse in systems undergoing unsustainable growth.

Unsustainable growth is typical of systems that rely on a finite pool of non-renewable resources that are tapped until they are depleted. The decrease in resource availability eventually leads these systems to a decline. Here we investigate the dynamics of systems that exhibit unsustainable growth and are prone to a collapse to an alternative ("degraded") state. For these systems the possible imminent occurrence of a collapse is difficult to avert because they keep growing as they approach the transition point. It is therefore important to identify some early warning signs that can be used to predict whether the system is approaching a critical and likely irreversible transition to an undesired and degraded state. This study evaluates whether existing theories of precursors of phase transitions based on the critical slowing down phenomenon are applicable as leading indicators of state shift in unsustainable growth dynamics. It is found that such indicators fail to serve as reliable early warning signs of the system's collapse.

Land grabbing: a preliminary quantification of economic impacts on rural livelihoods.

Global demands on agricultural land are increasing due to population growth, dietary changes and the use of biofuels. Their effect on food security is to reduce humans' ability to cope with the uncertainties of global climate change. In light of the 2008 food crisis, to secure reliable future access to sufficient agricultural land, many nations and corporations have begun purchasing large tracts of land in the global South, a phenomenon deemed "land grabbing" by popular media. Because land investors frequently export crops without providing adequate employment, this represents an effective income loss for local communities. We study 28 countries targeted by large-scale land acquisitions [comprising 87 % of reported cases and 27 million hectares (ha)] and estimate the effects of such investments on local communities' incomes. We find that this phenomenon can potentially affect the incomes of ~12 million people globally with implications for food security, poverty levels and urbanization. While it is important to note that our study incorporates a number of assumptions and limitations, it provides a much needed initial quantification of the economic impacts of large-scale land acquisitions on rural livelihoods.

Will war in Ukraine escalate the global land rush?

Land grabbing typically leads to social and environmental harms.

Preserving global land and water resources through the replacement of livestock feed crops with agricultural by-products.

While animal-source foods contribute to 16% of the global food supply and are an important protein source in human diets, their production uses a disproportionately large fraction of agricultural land and water resources. Therefore, a global comprehensive understanding of the extent to which livestock production competes directly or indirectly with food crops is needed. Here we use an agro-hydrological model combined with crop-specific yield data to investigate to what extent the replacement of some substitutable feed crops with available agricultural by-products would spare agricultural land and water resources that could be reallocated to other uses, including food crop production. We show that replacing 11-16% of energy-rich feed crops (that is, cereals and cassava) with agricultural by-products would allow for the saving of approximately 15.4-27.8 Mha of land, and 3-19.6 km3 and 74.2-137.8 km3 of blue and green water, respectively, for the growth of other food crops, thus providing a suitable strategy to reduce unsustainable use of natural resources both locally or through virtual land and water trade.

Using drivers and transmission pathways to identify SARS-like coronavirus spillover risk hotspots.

The emergence of SARS-like coronaviruses is a multi-stage process from wildlife reservoirs to people. Here we characterize multiple drivers-landscape change, host distribution, and human exposure-associated with the risk of spillover of zoonotic SARS-like coronaviruses to help inform surveillance and mitigation activities. We consider direct and indirect transmission pathways by modeling four scenarios with livestock and mammalian wildlife as potential and known reservoirs before examining how access to healthcare varies within clusters and scenarios. We found 19 clusters with differing risk factor contributions within a single country (N = 9) or transboundary (N = 10). High-risk areas were mainly closer (11-20%) rather than far ( < 1%) from healthcare. Areas far from healthcare reveal healthcare access inequalities, especially Scenario 3, which includes wild mammals and not livestock as secondary hosts. China (N = 2) and Indonesia (N = 1) had clusters with the highest risk. Our findings can help stakeholders in land use planning, integrating healthcare implementation and One Health actions.