ICARES: a real-time automated detection tool for clusters of infectious diseases in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Clusters of infectious diseases are frequently detected late. Real-time, detailed information about an evolving cluster and possible associated conditions is essential for local policy makers, travelers planning to visit the area, and the local population. This is currently illustrated in the Zika virus outbreak. METHODS: In the Netherlands, ICARES (Integrated Crisis Alert and Response System) has been developed and tested on three syndromes as an automated, real-time tool for early detection of clusters of infectious diseases. From local general practices, General Practice Out-of-Hours services and a hospital, the numbers of routinely used syndrome codes for three piloted tracts i.e., respiratory tract infection, hepatitis and encephalitis/meningitis, are sent on a daily basis to a central unit of infectious disease control. Historic data combined with information about patients' syndromes, age cohort, gender and postal code area have been used to detect clusters of cases. RESULTS: During the first 2 years, two out of eight alerts appeared to be a real cluster. The first was part of the seasonal increase in Enterovirus encephalitis and the second was a remarkably long lasting influenza season with high peak incidence. CONCLUSIONS: This tool is believed to be the first flexible automated, real-time cluster detection system for infectious diseases, based on physician information from both general practitioners and hospitals. ICARES is able to detect and follow small regional clusters in real time and can handle any diseases entity that is regularly registered by first line physicians. Its value will be improved when more health care institutions agree to link up with ICARES thus improving further the signal-to-noise ratio.

Transmission of novel influenza A(H1N1) in households with post-exposure antiviral prophylaxis.

BACKGROUND: Despite impressive advances in our understanding of the biology of novel influenza A(H1N1) virus, little is as yet known about its transmission efficiency in close contact places such as households, schools, and workplaces. These are widely believed to be key in supporting propagating spread, and it is therefore of importance to assess the transmission levels of the virus in such settings. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We estimate the transmissibility of novel influenza A(H1N1) in 47 households in the Netherlands using stochastic epidemic models. All households contained a laboratory confirmed index case, and antiviral drugs (oseltamivir) were given to both the index case and other households members within 24 hours after detection of the index case. Among the 109 household contacts there were 9 secondary infections in 7 households. The overall estimated secondary attack rate is low (0.075, 95%CI: 0.037-0.13). There is statistical evidence indicating that older persons are less susceptible to infection than younger persons (relative susceptibility of older persons: 0.11, 95%CI: 0.024-0.43. Notably, the secondary attack rate from an older to a younger person is 0.35 (95%CI: 0.14-0.61) when using an age classification of 12 years, and 0.28 (95%CI: 0.12-0.50) when using an age classification of 18 years. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results indicate that the overall household transmission levels of novel influenza A(H1N1) in antiviral-treated households were low in the early stage of the epidemic. The relatively high rate of adult-to-child transmission indicates that control measures focused on this transmission route will be most effective in minimizing the total number of infections.