Estimating fine age structure and time trends in human contact patterns from coarse contact data: The Bayesian rate consistency model.

Since the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), large-scale social contact surveys are now longitudinally measuring the fundamental changes in human interactions in the face of the pandemic and non-pharmaceutical interventions. Here, we present a model-based Bayesian approach that can reconstruct contact patterns at 1-year resolution even when the age of the contacts is reported coarsely by 5 or 10-year age bands. This innovation is rooted in population-level consistency constraints in how contacts between groups must add up, which prompts us to call the approach presented here the Bayesian rate consistency model. The model can also quantify time trends and adjust for reporting fatigue emerging in longitudinal surveys through the use of computationally efficient Hilbert Space Gaussian process priors. We illustrate estimation accuracy on simulated data as well as social contact data from Europe and Africa for which the exact age of contacts is reported, and then apply the model to social contact data with coarse information on the age of contacts that were collected in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic from April to June 2020 across five longitudinal survey waves. We estimate the fine age structure in social contacts during the early stages of the pandemic and demonstrate that social contact intensities rebounded in an age-structured, non-homogeneous manner. The Bayesian rate consistency model provides a model-based, non-parametric, computationally tractable approach for estimating the fine structure and longitudinal trends in social contacts and is applicable to contemporary survey data with coarsely reported age of contacts as long as the exact age of survey participants is reported.

Strength training is more effective than aerobic exercise for improving glycaemic control and body composition in people with normal-weight type 2 diabetes: a randomised controlled trial.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Type 2 diabetes in people in the healthy weight BMI category (<25 kg/m2), herein defined as 'normal-weight type 2 diabetes', is associated with sarcopenia (low muscle mass). Given this unique body composition, the optimal exercise regimen for this population is unknown. METHODS: We conducted a parallel-group RCT in individuals with type 2 diabetes (age 18-80 years, HbA1c 47.5-118.56 mmol/mol [6.5-13.0%]) and BMI <25 kg/m2). Participants were recruited in outpatient clinics or through advertisements and randomly assigned to a 9 month exercise programme of strength training alone (ST), aerobic training alone (AER) or both interventions combined (COMB). We used stratified block randomisation with a randomly selected block size. Researchers and caregivers were blinded to participants' treatment group; however, participants themselves were not. Exercise interventions were conducted at community-based fitness centres. The primary outcome was absolute change in HbA1c level within and across the three groups at 3, 6 and 9 months. Secondary outcomes included changes in body composition at 9 months. Per adherence to recommended exercise protocol (PP) analysis included participants who completed at least 50% of the sessions. RESULTS: Among 186 individuals (ST, n=63; AER, n=58; COMB, n=65) analysed, the median (IQR) age was 59 (53-66) years, 60% were men and 83% were Asian. The mean (SD) HbA1c level at baseline was 59.6 (13.1) mmol/mol (7.6% [1.2%]). In intention-to-treat analysis, the ST group showed a significant decrease in HbA1c levels (mean [95% CI] -0.44 percentage points [-0.78, -0.12], p=0.002), while no significant change was observed in either the COMB group (-0.35 percentage points, p=0.13) or the AER group (-0.24 percentage points, p=0.10). The ST group had a greater improvement in HbA1c levels than the AER group (p=0.01). Appendicular lean mass relative to fat mass increased only in the ST group (p=0.0008), which was an independent predictor of HbA1c change (beta coefficient -7.16, p=0.01). Similar results were observed in PP analysis. Only one adverse event, in the COMB group, was considered to be possibly associated with the exercise intervention. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In normal-weight type 2 diabetes, strength training was superior to aerobic training alone, while no significant difference was observed between strength training and combination training for HbA1c reduction. Increased lean mass relative to decreased fat mass was an independent predictor of reduction in HbA1c level. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02448498. FUNDING: This study was funded by the National Institutes of Health (NIH; R01DK081371).

Longitudinal population-level HIV epidemiologic and genomic surveillance highlights growing gender disparity of HIV transmission in Uganda.

HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa has historically been concentrated among girls and women aged 15-24 years. As new cases decline with HIV interventions, population-level infection dynamics may shift by age and gender. Here, we integrated population-based surveillance of 38,749 participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study and longitudinal deep-sequence viral phylogenetics to assess how HIV incidence and population groups driving transmission have changed from 2003 to 2018 in Uganda. We observed 1,117 individuals in the incidence cohort and 1,978 individuals in the transmission cohort. HIV viral suppression increased more rapidly in women than men, however incidence declined more slowly in women than men. We found that age-specific transmission flows shifted: whereas HIV transmission to girls and women (aged 15-24 years) from older men declined by about one-third, transmission to women (aged 25-34 years) from men that were 0-6 years older increased by half in 2003 to 2018. Based on changes in transmission flows, we estimated that closing the gender gap in viral suppression could have reduced HIV incidence in women by half in 2018. This study suggests that HIV programmes to increase HIV suppression in men are critical to reduce incidence in women, close gender gaps in infection burden and improve men's health in Africa.

Disparities and Trends in Routine Adult Vaccination Rates Among Disaggregated Asian American Subgroups, National Health Interview Survey 2006-2018.

Introduction: Vaccination rates may be improved through culturally tailored messages, but little is known about them among disaggregated Asian American subgroups. We assessed the vaccination rates for key vaccines among these subgroups. Methods: Using the National Health Interview Survey, we analyzed recent vaccination rates (2015-2018, n=188,250) and trends (2006-2018) among Asians (Chinese [n=3,165], Asian Indian [n=3,525], Filipino [n=3,656], other Asian [n=5,819]) and non-Hispanic White adults (n=172,085) for 6 vaccines (the human papillomavirus, hepatitis B, pneumococcal, influenza, tetanus-diphtheria [tetanus], and shingles vaccines). We controlled demographic, socioeconomic, and health-related variables in multivariable logistic regression and predicted marginal modeling analyses. We also computed vaccination rates among Asian American subgroups on the 2015-2018 National Health Interview Survey data stratified by foreign-born and U.S.-born status. We used Joinpoint regression to analyze trends in vaccination rates. All analyses were conducted in 2021 and 2022. Results: Among Asians, shingles (29.2%; 95% CI=26.6, 32.0), tetanus (53.7%; 95% CI=51.8, 55.6), and pneumococcal (53.8%; 95% CI=50.1, 57.4) vaccination rates were lower than among non-Hispanic Whites. Influenza (47.9%; 95% CI=46.2, 49.6) and hepatitis B (40.5%; 95% CI=39.0, 42.7) vaccination rates were similar or higher than among non-Hispanic Whites (48.4%; 95% CI=47.9, 48.9 and 30.7%; 95% CI=30.1, 31.3, respectively). Among Asians, we found substantial variations in vaccination rates and trends. For example, Asian Indian women had lower human papillomavirus vaccination rates (12.9%; 95% CI=9.1, 18.0) than all other Asian subgroups (Chinese: 37.9%; 95% CI=31.1, 45.2; Filipinos: 38.7%; 95% CI=29.9, 48.3; other Asians: 30.4%; 95% CI=24.8, 36.7) and non-Hispanic Whites (36.1%; 95% CI=34.8, 37.5). Being male, having lower educational attainment and income, having no health insurance or covered by public health insurance only, and lower frequency of doctor visits were generally associated with lower vaccine uptakes. Foreign-born Asian aggregate had lower vaccination rates than U.S.-born Asian aggregate for all vaccines except for influenza. We also found subgroup-level differences in vaccination rates between foreign-born and U.S.-born Asians. We found that (1) foreign-born Chinese, Asian Indians, and other Asians had lower human papillomavirus and hepatitis B vaccination rates; (2) foreign-born Chinese and Filipinos had lower pneumococcal vaccination rates; (3) foreign-born Chinese and Asian Indians had lower influenza vaccination rates; and (4) all foreign-born Asian subgroups had lower tetanus vaccination rates. Conclusions: Vaccination rates and trends differed among Asian American subgroups. Culturally tailored messaging and interventions may improve vaccine uptakes.

Toward precision sleep medicine: variations in sleep outcomes among disaggregated Asian Americans in the National Health Interview Survey (2006-2018).

STUDY OBJECTIVES: Asian Americans report higher rates of insufficient sleep than non-Hispanic Whites (NHWs). It is unclear how sleep outcomes differ among disaggregated Asian subgroups. METHODS: The National Health Interview Survey (2006-2018) was used to analyze self-reported sleep duration and quality measures for Asian American subgroups (Chinese [n = 11,056], Asian Indian [n = 11,249], Filipino [n = 13,211], and other Asians [n = 21,767]). Outcomes included hours of sleep per day, the number of days reporting trouble falling asleep, staying asleep, waking up rested, and taking sleep medication in the past week. Subsetted multivariate logistic regression was used to assess factors impacting sleep outcomes by ethnicity. RESULTS: 29.2% of NHWs, 26.4% of Chinese, 24.5% of Asian Indians, and 38.4% of Filipinos reported insufficient sleep duration. Filipinos were less likely to report sufficient sleep duration (odds ratio 0.55, [confidence interval 95% 0.50-0.59]) and more likely to report trouble falling asleep (1.16 [1.01-1.33]) than NHWs. Chinese and Asian Indians had less trouble staying asleep (0.67 [0.58-0.77], 0.51 [0.44-0.59]) and falling asleep (0.77 [0.66-0.89], 0.72, [0.62-0.82]) than NHWs, and Asian Indians were more likely to wake feeling well rested (1.66 [1.48-1.87]). All Asian subgroups were less likely to report using sleep medications than NHWs. Foreign-born status had a negative association with sufficient sleep duration in Filipinos but a positive association in Asian Indians and Chinese. CONCLUSIONS: Filipinos report the highest burden of poor sleep outcomes, and Asian Indians report significantly better sleep outcomes. These findings highlight the importance of disaggregating Asian ethnic subgroups to address their health needs. CITATION: Wang RZ, Jamal A, Wang Z, et al. Toward precision sleep medicine: variations in sleep outcomes among disaggregated Asian Americans in the National Health Interview Survey (2006-2018). J Clin Sleep Med. 2023;19(7):1259-1270.

Longitudinal population-level HIV epidemiologic and genomic surveillance highlights growing gender disparity of HIV transmission in Uganda.

HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa has historically been concentrated among girls and women aged 15-24 years. As new cases decline with HIV interventions, population-level infection dynamics may shift by age and gender. Here, we integrated population-based surveillance of 38,749 participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study and longitudinal deep sequence viral phylogenetics to assess how HIV incidence and population groups driving transmission have changed from 2003 to 2018 in Uganda. We observed 1,117 individuals in the incidence cohort and 1,978 individuals in the transmission cohort. HIV viral suppression increased more rapidly in women than men, however incidence declined more slowly in women than men. We found that age-specific transmission flows shifted, while HIV transmission to girls and women (aged 15-24 years) from older men declined by about one third, transmission to women (aged 25-34 years) from men that were 0-6 years older increased by half in 2003 to 2018. Based on changes in transmission flows, we estimated that closing the gender gap in viral suppression could have reduced HIV incidence in women by half in 2018. This study suggests that HIV programs to increase HIV suppression in men are critical to reduce incidence in women, close gender gaps in infection burden and improve men's health in Africa.

Disaggregating Asian American Cigarette and Alternative Tobacco Product Use: Results from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) 2006-2018.

INTRODUCTION: Asian Americans suffer high rates of smoking and tobacco-related deaths, varying by ethnic group. Trends of cigarette and alternative tobacco product use among Asian Americans, specifically considering ethnic group, sex, and nativity, are infrequently reported. METHODS: Using National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) data from 2006-2018 and the 2016-2018 alternative tobacco supplement (e-cigarettes, cigars, smokeless tobacco, pipes), we explored cigarette and alternative tobacco product use by Asian ethnic group (Asian Indian (n = 4373), Chinese (n = 4736), Filipino (n = 4912)) in comparison to non-Hispanic Whites (NHWs (n = 275,025)), adjusting for socioeconomic and demographic factors. RESULTS: Among 289,046 adults, 12% of Filipinos were current smokers, twice the prevalence in Asian Indians and Chinese (p < 0.001). The male-female gender difference was fivefold for Chinese (10.3% vs. 2.2%; p < 0.001), eightfold for Asian Indians (8.7% vs. 1.1%; p < 0.001), and twofold for Filipinos (16.8% vs. 9.0%). Moreover, 16.3% of US-born and 10.3% of foreign-born Filipinos were current smokers. Odds of ever using e-cigarettes, cigars, smokeless tobacco, and pipes in comparison to NHWs were lowest for Chinese (ORs 0.6, 0.5, 0.2, and 0.5). DISCUSSION: Filipinos had the highest current smoking rates of Asian ethnic groups. Though more Asian men were current smokers, the high rate of current smoking among Filipinas is concerning. More US-born Filipinos were current smokers than foreign-born, despite rates typically decreasing for US-born Asians. Investigating cultural factors contributing to less frequent use of tobacco products, such as alternative tobacco products among Chinese, may aid campaigns in curbing tobacco usage.

Cancer Mortality in U.S.-Born versus Foreign-Born Asian American Groups (2008-2017).

BACKGROUND: Asian Americans (AA) are the fastest growing ethnic group in the United States with high proportions of immigrants. Nativity is important as cancer risk factors vary by country. We sought to understand differences in cancer mortality among AAs by nativity (foreign-born vs. U.S.-born). METHODS: Ninety-eight thousand eight hundred and twenty-six AA (Asian Indian, Chinese, Filipino, Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese) decedents with cancer-related deaths from U.S. death certificates (2008-2017) were analyzed. Thirteen cancers that contribute significantly to Asian-American cancer mortality were selected and categorized by etiology: tobacco-related, screen-detected, diet-/obesity-related, and infection-related. Ten-year age-adjusted mortality rates [AAMR; 95% confidence interval (CI); per 100,00] and standardized mortality ratios (SMR; 95% CI) using foreign-born as the reference group were calculated. RESULTS: Overall, foreign-born AAs had higher mortality rates than U.S.-born. Japanese U.S.-born males had the highest tobacco-related mortality rates [foreign-born AAMR: 43.02 (38.72, 47.31); U.S.-born AAMR: 55.38 (53.05, 57.72)]. Screen-detected death rates were higher for foreign-born than U.S.-born, except for among Japanese males [SMR 1.28 (1.21-1.35)]. Diet-/obesity-related AAMRs were higher among females than males and highest among foreign-born females. Foreign-born males and females had higher infection-related AAMRs than U.S.-born; the highest rates were foreign-born males-Korean [AAMR 41.54 (39.54, 43.53)] and Vietnamese [AAMR 41.39 (39.68, 43.09)]. CONCLUSIONS: We observed substantial heterogeneity in mortality rates across AA groups and by nativity. Contrary to the Healthy Immigrant Effect, most foreign-born Asians were dying at higher rates than U.S.-born AAs. IMPACT: Disaggregated analysis of AA cancers, targeted and culturally tailored cancer screening, and treatments for infections among foreign-born Asians is critical for cancer prevention efforts.