RESUMEN
Measles is a highly infectious, vaccine-preventable disease that can cause severe illness, hospitalization, and death. A measles outbreak associated with a migrant shelter in Chicago occurred during February-April 2024, in which a total of 57 confirmed cases were identified, including 52 among shelter residents, three among staff members, and two among community members with a known link to the shelter. CDC simulated a measles outbreak among shelter residents using a dynamic disease model, updated in real time as additional cases were identified, to produce outbreak forecasts and assess the impact of public health interventions. As of April 8, the model forecasted a median final outbreak size of 58 cases (IQR = 56-60 cases); model fit and prediction range improved as more case data became available. Counterfactual analysis of different intervention scenarios demonstrated the importance of early deployment of public health interventions in Chicago, with a 69% chance of an outbreak of 100 or more cases had there been no mass vaccination or active case-finding compared with only a 1% chance when those interventions were deployed. This analysis highlights the value of using real-time, dynamic models to aid public health response, set expectations about outbreak size and duration, and quantify the impact of interventions. The model shows that prompt mass vaccination and active case-finding likely substantially reduced the chance of a large (100 or more cases) outbreak in Chicago.
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Brotes de Enfermedades , Sarampión , Humanos , Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Chicago/epidemiología , Sarampión/epidemiología , Sarampión/prevención & control , Modelos Epidemiológicos , Salud Pública , Factores de Tiempo , Predicción , Adolescente , Niño , Preescolar , Vacunación Masiva , AdultoRESUMEN
Wastewater surveillance has been used to assist public health authorities in tracking local transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The usefulness of wastewater surveillance to track community spread of other respiratory pathogens, including influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), is less clear. During the 2022-23 respiratory diseases season, concentrations of influenza A virus and RSV in wastewater samples in three major Wisconsin cities were compared with emergency department (ED) visits associated with these pathogens. In all three cities, higher concentrations of influenza A virus and RSV in wastewater were associated with higher numbers of associated ED visits (Kendall's tau range = 0.50-0.63 for influenza-associated illness and 0.30-0.49 for RSV-associated illness). Detections of both influenza A virus and RSV in wastewater often preceded a rise in associated ED visits for each pathogen, and virus material remained detectable in wastewater for up to 3 months after pathogen-specific ED visits declined. These results demonstrate that wastewater surveillance has the potential to complement conventional methods of influenza and RSV surveillance, detecting viral signals earlier and for a longer duration than do clinical data. Continued use of wastewater surveillance as a supplement to established surveillance systems such as ED visits might improve local understanding and response to seasonal respiratory virus outbreaks.
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COVID-19 , Virus de la Influenza A , Gripe Humana , Infecciones por Virus Sincitial Respiratorio , Virus Sincitial Respiratorio Humano , Humanos , Aguas Residuales , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Incidencia , Monitoreo Epidemiológico Basado en Aguas Residuales , Wisconsin/epidemiología , SARS-CoV-2 , Infecciones por Virus Sincitial Respiratorio/epidemiología , Servicio de Urgencia en HospitalRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: University students commonly received COVID-19 vaccinations before returning to U.S. campuses in the Fall of 2021. Given likely immunologic variation among students based on differences in type of primary series and/or booster dose vaccine received, we conducted serologic investigations in September and December 2021 on a large university campus in Wisconsin to assess anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels. METHODS: We collected blood samples, demographic information, and COVID-19 illness and vaccination history from a convenience sample of students. Sera were analyzed for both anti-spike (anti-S) and anti-nucleocapsid (anti-N) antibody levels using World Health Organization standardized binding antibody units per milliliter (BAU/mL). Levels were compared across categorical primary COVID-19 vaccine series received and binary COVID-19 mRNA booster status. The association between anti-S levels and time since most recent vaccination dose was estimated by mixed-effects linear regression. RESULTS: In total, 356 students participated, of whom 219 (61.5%) had received a primary vaccine series of Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna mRNA vaccines and 85 (23.9%) had received vaccines from Sinovac or Sinopharm. Median anti-S levels were significantly higher for mRNA primary vaccine series recipients (2.90 and 2.86 log [BAU/mL], respectively), compared with those who received Sinopharm or Sinovac vaccines (1.63 and 1.95 log [BAU/mL], respectively). Sinopharm and Sinovac vaccine recipients were associated with a significantly faster anti-S decline over time, compared with mRNA vaccine recipients (P <.001). By December, 48/172 (27.9%) participants reported receiving an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine booster, which reduced the anti-S antibody discrepancies between primary series vaccine types. CONCLUSIONS: Our work supports the benefit of heterologous boosting against COVID-19. COVID-19 mRNA vaccine booster doses were associated with increases in anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels; following an mRNA booster dose, students with both mRNA and non-mRNA primary series receipt were associated with comparable levels of anti-S IgG.
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Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/prevención & control , Wisconsin/epidemiología , Universidades , Anticuerpos Antivirales , ARN MensajeroRESUMEN
Accurate estimates of the total burden of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are needed to inform policy, planning, and response. We sought to quantify SARS-CoV-2 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by age in Michigan. Coronavirus disease 2019 cases reported to the Michigan Disease Surveillance System were multiplied by age and time-specific adjustment factors to correct for under-detection. Adjustment factors were estimated in a model fit to incidence data and seroprevalence estimates. Age-specific incidence of SARS-CoV-2 hospitalization, death, vaccination, and variant proportions were estimated from publicly available data. We estimated substantial under-detection of infection that varied by age and time. Accounting for under-detection, we estimate the cumulative incidence of infection in Michigan reached 75% by mid-November 2021, and over 87% of Michigan residents were estimated to have had ≥1 vaccination dose and/or previous infection. Comparing pandemic waves, the relative burden among children increased over time. In general, the proportion of cases who were hospitalized or who died decreased over time. Our results highlight the ongoing risk of periods of high SARS-CoV-2 incidence despite widespread prior infection and vaccination. This underscores the need for long-term planning for surveillance, vaccination, and other mitigation measures amidst continued response to the acute pandemic.
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COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiología , Niño , Humanos , Michigan/epidemiología , Pandemias , Estudios SeroepidemiológicosRESUMEN
Objectives. To assess the rate of COVID-19 among in-person K-12 educators and the rate's association with various COVID-19 prevention policies in school districts. Methods. We linked actively working, in-person K-12 educators in Wisconsin to COVID-19 cases with onset from September 2 to November 24, 2021. A mixed-effects Cox proportional hazards model, adjusted for pertinent person- and community-level confounders, compared the hazard rate of COVID-19 among educators working in districts with and without specific COVID-19 prevention policies. Results. In-person educators working in school districts that required masking for students and staff experienced 19% lower hazards of COVID-19 than did those in districts without any masking policy (hazard ratio = 0.81; 95% confidence interval = 0.72, 0.92). Reduced COVID-19 hazards were consistent and remained statistically significant when educators were stratified by elementary, middle, and high school environments. Conclusions. In Wisconsin's K-12 school districts, during the fall 2021 academic semester, a policy that required both students and staff to mask was associated with significantly reduced risk of COVID-19 among in-person educators across all grade levels. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(12):1791-1799. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.307095).
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COVID-19 , Humanos , Wisconsin/epidemiología , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Servicios de Salud Escolar , Instituciones Académicas , Política NutricionalRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: As part of the Household Influenza Vaccine Evaluation (HIVE) study, acute respiratory infections (ARI) have been identified in children and adults from 2010 to 2018. METHODS: Annually, 890 to 1441 individuals were followed and contacted weekly to report ARIs. Specimens collected during illness were tested for human coronaviruses (HCoV) types OC43, 229E, HKU1, and NL63. RESULTS: In total, 993 HCoV infections were identified during the 8 years, with OC43 most commonly seen and 229E the least. HCoVs were detected in a limited time period, between December and April/May and peaked in January/February. Highest infection frequency was in children <5 years (18 per 100 person-years), with little variation in older age groups (range, 7 to 11 per 100 person-years). Overall, 9% of adult cases and 20% of cases in children were associated with medical consultation. Of the 993 infections, 260 were acquired from an infected household contact. The serial interval between index and household-acquired cases ranged from 3.2 to 3.6 days and the secondary infection risk ranged from 7.2% to 12.6% by type. CONCLUSIONS: Coronaviruses are sharply seasonal. They appear, based on serial interval and secondary infection risk, to have similar transmission potential to influenza A(H3N2) in the same population.
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Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Infecciones por Coronavirus/transmisión , Coronavirus/genética , Composición Familiar , Infecciones del Sistema Respiratorio/epidemiología , Adolescente , Adulto , Niño , Preescolar , Estudios de Cohortes , Infecciones por Coronavirus/virología , Femenino , Estudios de Seguimiento , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Masculino , Michigan/epidemiología , Persona de Mediana Edad , Infecciones del Sistema Respiratorio/virología , Reacción en Cadena de la Polimerasa de Transcriptasa Inversa , Estaciones del Año , Adulto JovenAsunto(s)
Cuidado del Niño/organización & administración , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Niño , Cuidado del Niño/economía , Atención a la Salud/economía , Atención a la Salud/organización & administración , Intervención Educativa Precoz/economía , Intervención Educativa Precoz/organización & administración , Humanos , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2 , Estados UnidosRESUMEN
The Chicago Department of Public Health tested wastewater samples for the presence of Monkeypox Virus (MPXV) from March 13 through June 26, 2023. There were persistent detections prior to reported cases. This indicated the baseline levels of MPXV prevalence might warrant routine monitoring. Detections in areas without corresponding reported clinical cases might highlight areas where cases are being under-reported by traditional surveillance.
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Aguas Residuales , Aguas Residuales/virología , Chicago , Humanos , Monitoreo del Ambiente/métodosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Childcare attendance is a common risk factor for acute respiratory illness (ARI) in young children. Our goal was to better understand the specific respiratory viruses that predominate in childcare, which may support the development of tailored illness prevention and intervention strategies in childcare settings. METHODS: Using data from a prospective household cohort of ARI surveillance, we assessed specimen from 1418 ARIs reported by 359 childcare-aged children over 6 study seasons (2012/2013 through 2017/2018). Respiratory swabs were tested by polymerase chain reaction for 9 respiratory viruses. A mixed-effect logistic regression model was used to compare odds of various viral detection outcomes. The Shannon's Diversity index was used to compare the richness (ie, number of species) and diversity (ie, relative species abundance) associated with respiratory viruses detected in both groups. RESULTS: At least 1 virus was detected in 75.5% of childcare-associated ARIs and in 80.1% of homecare ARIs. Compared with illnesses among homecare children, childcare illnesses were associated with significantly higher odds of detected adenovirus (odds ratio = 1.86, 95% confidence interval = 1.05-3.28) and human metapneumovirus (odds ratio = 1.76, 95% confidence interval = 1.03-3.0). The pool of viruses associated with childcare ARI was found to be significantly richer and more diverse than that of viruses associated with homecare ARI ( P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Children attending childcare experience a higher risk of adenovirus and human metapneumovirus infection and are regularly exposed to a rich and diverse pool of respiratory viruses in childcare environments. Our results underscore the necessity of thorough and multifaceted viral prevention strategies in childcare settings.
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Infecciones del Sistema Respiratorio , Virosis , Virus , Niño , Humanos , Lactante , Preescolar , Anciano , Estudios Prospectivos , Cuidado del Niño , Infecciones del Sistema Respiratorio/epidemiología , Virosis/epidemiología , AdenoviridaeRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: In Southeast Michigan, active surveillance studies monitor influenza activity in hospitals, ambulatory clinics, and community households. Across five respiratory seasons, we assessed the contribution of data from each of the three networks towards improving our overall understanding of regional influenza circulation. METHODS: All three networks used case definitions for acute respiratory illness (ARI) and molecularly tested for influenza from research-collected respiratory specimens. Age- and network-stratified epidemic curves were created for influenza A and B. We compared stratified epidemic curves visually and by centering at seasonal midpoints. RESULTS: Across all seasons (from 2014/2015 through 2018/2019), epidemic curves from each of the three networks were comparable in terms of both timing and magnitude. Small discrepancies in epidemics recorded by each network support previous conclusions about broader characteristics of particular influenza seasons. CONCLUSION: Influenza surveillance systems based in hospital, ambulatory clinic, and community household settings appear to provide largely similar information regarding regional epidemic activity. Together, multiple levels of influenza surveillance provide a detailed view of regional influenza epidemics, but a single surveillance system-regardless of population subgroup monitored-appears to be sufficient in providing vital information regarding community influenza epidemics.
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Epidemias , Gripe Humana , Hospitales , Humanos , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Michigan/epidemiología , Vigilancia de la Población , Estaciones del Año , Vigilancia de GuardiaRESUMEN
Childcare attendance is a recognized independent risk factor for pediatric infectious diseases due to the pathogen-sharing behaviors of young children and the crowded environments of childcare programs. The Michigan Child Care Related Infections Surveillance Program (MCRISP) is a novel online illness surveillance network used by community childcare centers to track disease incidence. It has been used to warn local public health departments about emerging outbreaks. The flow of data from MCRISP, however, remains largely unidirectional-from data reporter to public health researchers. With the intent to ultimately improve the system for users, we wanted to better understand how community illness data collected by MCRISP might best benefit childcare stakeholders themselves. Using a ground-up design approach, we conducted a series of focus groups among childcare directors participating in MCRISP. All primary data reporters from each of the 30 MCRISP-affiliated childcare centers were eligible to participate in the focus groups. A thematic assessment from the focus groups revealed that participants wanted surveillance system improvements that would (1) support subjective experiences with objective data, (2) assist with program decision making, (3) provide educational resources, and (4) prioritize the user's experience. Our findings support a framework by which community disease surveillance networks can move toward greater transparency and 2-way data flow. Ultimately, a more mutually beneficial surveillance system improves stakeholder engagement, provides opportunities for rapid mitigation strategies, and can help allocate timely resources in responding to emerging outbreaks and pandemics.