Recurrent jellyfish blooms are a consequence of global oscillations.

A perceived recent increase in global jellyfish abundance has been portrayed as a symptom of degraded oceans. This perception is based primarily on a few case studies and anecdotal evidence, but a formal analysis of global temporal trends in jellyfish populations has been missing. Here, we analyze all available long-term datasets on changes in jellyfish abundance across multiple coastal stations, using linear and logistic mixed models and effect-size analysis to show that there is no robust evidence for a global increase in jellyfish. Although there has been a small linear increase in jellyfish since the 1970s, this trend was unsubstantiated by effect-size analysis that showed no difference in the proportion of increasing vs. decreasing jellyfish populations over all time periods examined. Rather, the strongest nonrandom trend indicated jellyfish populations undergo larger, worldwide oscillations with an approximate 20-y periodicity, including a rising phase during the 1990s that contributed to the perception of a global increase in jellyfish abundance. Sustained monitoring is required over the next decade to elucidate with statistical confidence whether the weak increasing linear trend in jellyfish after 1970 is an actual shift in the baseline or part of an oscillation. Irrespective of the nature of increase, given the potential damage posed by jellyfish blooms to fisheries, tourism, and other human industries, our findings foretell recurrent phases of rise and fall in jellyfish populations that society should be prepared to face.

Hybridization and adaptive introgression in a marine invasive species in native habitats.

Hybridization of distinct populations or species is an important evolutionary driving force. For invasive species, hybridization can enhance their competitive advantage as a source of adaptive novelty by introgression of selectively favored alleles. Using single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) microarrays we assess genetic diversity and population structure in the invasive ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi in native habitats. Hybrids are present at the distribution border of two lineages, especially in highly fluctuating environments including very low salinities, while hybrids occur at lower frequency in stable high-saline habitats. Analyses of hybridization status suggest that hybrids thriving in variable environments are selected for, while they are selected against in stable habitats. Translocation of hybrids might accelerate invasion success in non-native habitats. This could be especially relevant for M. leidyi as low salinity limits its invasion range in western Eurasia. Although hybridization status is currently disregarded, it could determine high-risk areas where ballast water exchange should be prevented.

Reconstructing source-sink dynamics in a population with a pelagic dispersal phase.

For many organisms, the reconstruction of source-sink dynamics is hampered by limited knowledge of the spatial assemblage of either the source or sink components or lack of information on the strength of the linkage for any source-sink pair. In the case of marine species with a pelagic dispersal phase, these problems may be mitigated through the use of particle drift simulations based on an ocean circulation model. However, when simulated particle trajectories do not intersect sampling sites, the corroboration of model drift simulations with field data is hampered. Here, we apply a new statistical approach for reconstructing source-sink dynamics that overcomes the aforementioned problems. Our research is motivated by the need for understanding observed changes in jellyfish distributions in the eastern Bering Sea since 1990. By contrasting the source-sink dynamics reconstructed with data from the pre-1990 period with that from the post-1990 period, it appears that changes in jellyfish distribution resulted from the combined effects of higher jellyfish productivity and longer dispersal of jellyfish resulting from a shift in the ocean circulation starting in 1991. A sensitivity analysis suggests that the source-sink reconstruction is robust to typical systematic and random errors in the ocean circulation model driving the particle drift simulations. The jellyfish analysis illustrates that new insights can be gained by studying structural changes in source-sink dynamics. The proposed approach is applicable for the spatial source-sink reconstruction of other species and even abiotic processes, such as sediment transport.