The use of geostatistics in the study of floral phenology of Vulpia geniculata (L.) link.

Traditionally phenology studies have been focused on changes through time, but there exist many instances in ecological research where it is necessary to interpolate among spatially stratified samples. The combined use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Geostatistics can be an essential tool for spatial analysis in phenological studies. Geostatistics are a family of statistics that describe correlations through space/time and they can be used for both quantifying spatial correlation and interpolating unsampled points. In the present work, estimations based upon Geostatistics and GIS mapping have enabled the construction of spatial models that reflect phenological evolution of Vulpia geniculata (L.) Link throughout the study area during sampling season. Ten sampling points, scattered throughout the city and low mountains in the "Sierra de Córdoba" were chosen to carry out the weekly phenological monitoring during flowering season. The phenological data were interpolated by applying the traditional geostatitical method of Kriging, which was used to elaborate weekly estimations of V. geniculata phenology in unsampled areas. Finally, the application of Geostatistics and GIS to create phenological maps could be an essential complement in pollen aerobiological studies, given the increased interest in obtaining automatic aerobiological forecasting maps.

Synoptic and meteorological characterisation of olive pollen transport in Córdoba province (south-western Spain).

The main goal of the present study was to provide a detailed analysis of olive pollen transport dynamics in the province of Córdoba (south-western Spain) by applying back-trajectory analysis. Pollen data from 2006 and 2007 were analysed at four monitoring sites: Córdoba city in the centre of the province, Baena and Priego de Córdoba located in the south, and El Cabril reserve (Hornachuelos Natural Park) in the north. Particular attention was paid to nine episodes of high pollen counts. Synoptic surface maps were used, and kinematic back-trajectories (3D) were computed using the hybrid single particle Lagrangian integrated trajectory model (HYSPLIT) at 500 m above ground level, run with a time-step of 6 h over a period of 36 h. Findings were analysed in conjunction with daily and bi-hourly airborne pollen data, field phenological data and hourly surface meteorological data recorded at nearby stations: temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, wind direction and wind speed. The results identified two pollen source areas over the Córdoba province, the largest one located in the south, affecting Baena, Priego de Córdoba and Córdoba city, and one smaller located in the west, which determines mainly the pollen cycle over the north of the province, El Cabril. In addition, two air mass circulations were found, one coming from the south and crossing the main olive pollen sources very close to the surface and being frequently associated with higher pollen counts, and the other coming from the west and, in the episodes investigated, influencing mainly the north of the province.

Olive flowering trends in a large Mediterranean area (Italy and Spain).

The aim of this study was to investigate the main climatic and biological trends related to olive flowering in central-southern Italy compared to those in Andalusia, Spain. Results since 1982 were compared for the two long-series monitoring areas of Cordoba and Perugia, and since 1992-1999 for the short-series areas. The relationship between climatic trends and the biological response of the olive, a widespread culture in the Mediterranean basin, were investigated. An aerobiological method involving capturing pollen released into the atmosphere was utilised as a bioindicator of flowering phenology. The study results confirm the strong relationship between flowering periods and spring temperature trends for the olive. Temperature during March, April and May was the parameter most related to flowering date in the study areas, particularly in Italy. In some cases we found a significant correlation between flowering and past autumn temperatures, probably due to their effect on floral bud dormancy induction, but this phenomenon appeared to be of minor importance in the studied areas. The phenological trend results show the continuous advance of flowering dates to the late 1990s, followed by a relatively stationary time series related to a short-term temperature fluctuation in the Mediterranean area. This latter period probably represents a mesoscale event forced by a macroscale event-the North Atlantic Oscillation. The results reveal that the trend towards increased temperatures, and the consequent flowering advance of some species, indicated some years ago is nowadays not as clear as was expected and should be confirmed over the next few years in the Mediterranean areas under investigation.

Airborne allergenic pollen in natural areas: Hornachuelos Natural Park, Cordoba, southern Spain.

The present study shows the results of monitoring the atmospheric pollen in the atmosphere of an area of natural vegetation, the Hornachuelos Natural Park, Cordoba, southern Spain, during a six years (1998-2003). Special attention was paid in the seasonal and intra-diurnal characteristics of airborne allergenic pollen. During this period, 31 pollen types were described, some of them rare in aerobiological analysis. High concentrations of allergenic pollen from entomophilous species and from areas at a long distance were found. Significant differences between pollen spectrum and pollen concentration of the natural study area and the surrounding cities were detected. Intra-diurnal pattern from trees surrounding the trap presented a clear peak at midday/afternoon. Pollen from taxa comprising many species and from species at far locations showed a smoother intra-diurnal pattern. The correlation with meteorological parameters was positive with maximum and mean temperatures, and negative with humidity and rainfall.

Quercus pollen season dynamics in the Iberian peninsula: response to meteorological parameters and possible consequences of climate change.

The main characteristics of the Quercus pollination season were studied in 14 different localities of the Iberian Peninsula from 1992-2004. Results show that Quercus flowering season has tended to start earlier in recent years, probably due to the increased temperatures in the pre-flowering period, detected at study sites over the second half of the 20th century. A Growing Degree Days forecasting model was used, together with future meteorological data forecast using the Regional Climate Model developed by the Hadley Meteorological Centre, in order to determine the expected advance in the start of Quercus pollination in future years. At each study site, airborne pollen curves presented a similar pattern in all study years, with different peaks over the season attributable in many cases to the presence of several species. High pollen concentrations were recorded, particularly at Mediterranean sites. This study also proposes forecasting models to predict both daily pollen values and annual pollen emission. All models were externally validated using data for 2001 and 2004, with acceptable results. Finally, the impact of the highly-likely climate change on Iberian Quercus pollen concentration values was studied by applying RCM meteorological data for different future years, 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2099. Results indicate that under a doubled CO(2) scenario at the end of the 21st century Quercus pollination season could start on average one month earlier and airborne pollen concentrations will increase by 50 % with respect to current levels, with higher values in Mediterranean inland areas.

Detection of airborne allergen (Pla a 1) in relation to Platanus pollen in Córdoba, South Spain.

Córdoba is one of the Spanish cities with the highest records of plane tree pollen grains in the air. Clinical studies have identified Platanus as a major cause of pollinosis. This fact provokes an important public health problem during early spring when these trees bloom. The objective of the study is to evaluate the correlation between airborne pollen counts and Pla a 1 aeroallergen concentrations in Córdoba, to elucidate if airborne pollen can be an accurate measure that helps to explain the prevalence of allergenic symptoms. Pollen sampling was performed during 2011-2012 using a Hirst-type sampler. Daily average concentration of pollen grains (pollen grains/m 3 ) was obtained following the methodology proposed by the Spanish Aerobiology Network. A multi-vial cyclone was used for the aeroallergen quantification. Allergenic particles were measured by ELISA using specific antibodies Pla a 1. The trend of Platanus pollen was characterized by a marked seasonality, reaching high concentrations in a short period of time. Airborne pollen and aeroallergen follow similar trends. The overlapping profile between both variables during both years shows that pollen and Pla a 1 are significantly correlated. The highest significant correlation coefficients were obtained during 2011 and for the post peak. Although some studies have found notable divergence between pollen and allergen concentrations in the air, in the case of Platanus in Córdoba, similar aerobiological dynamics between pollen and Pla a 1 have been found. Allergenic activity was found only during the plane tree pollen season, showing a close relationship with daily pollen concentrations. The obtained pollen potency was similar for both years of study. The results suggest that the allergenic response in sensitive patients to plane tree pollen coincide with the presence and magnitude of airborne pollen.

Aerobiological and phenological study of Pistacia in Córdoba city (Spain).

Pistacia species grow in temperate regions, and are widespread in the Mediterranean area. Two species can be found in the Iberian Peninsula: Pistacia lentiscus L. and Pistacia terebinthus L. Airborne pollen from these species, recorded in some Spanish provinces, is regarded by some authors as potentially allergenic, and therefore should be of particular interest, given that these species are actually being introduced as ornamentals in parks and gardens. This paper deals with a study of daily and seasonal Pistacia airborne pollen counts in Córdoba city, analysed in parallel with field flowering phenology data. The study was carried out in Córdoba, using a volumetric Hirst-type sampler in accordance with Spanish Aerobiology Network guidelines. Phenological monitoring was performed weekly from January to May at 7 sites in the mountain areas north of Córdoba city. The Pistacia pollen season lasted an average of 41 days, from mid-March to end of April. Higher pollen counts were recorded in evening hours. The pollen index increased over the study period, and the pollen season coincided with phenological observations. Some airborne pollen grains were recorded once flowering had finished, due to re-suspension or transport from other locations. Pistacia pollen counts in Córdoba were low, but sufficient to identify seasonal and daily patterns. This pollen type should be taken into account in pollen calendars, in order to fully inform potential allergy-sufferers. The number of trees introduced as ornamentals should be carefully controlled, since widespread planting could increase airborne pollen levels.

Quality control in bio-monitoring networks, Spanish Aerobiology Network.

Several of the airborne biological particles, such as pollen grains and fungal spores, are known to generate human health problems including allergies and infections. A number of aerobiologists have focused their research on these airborne particles. The Spanish Aerobiology Network (REA) was set up in 1992, and since then dozens of research groups have worked on a range of related topics, including the standardization of study methods and the quality control of data generated by this network. In 2010, the REA started work on an inter-laboratory survey for proficiency testing purposes. The main goal of the study reported in the present paper was to determine the performance of technicians in the REA network using an analytical method that could be implemented by other bio-monitoring networks worldwide. The results recorded by each technician were compared with the scores obtained for a bounded mean of all results. The performance of each technician was expressed in terms of the relative error made in counting each of several pollen types. The method developed and implemented here proved appropriate for proficiency testing in interlaboratory studies involving bio-monitoring networks, and enabled the source of data quality problems to be pinpointed. The test revealed a variation coefficient of 10%. The relative error was significant for 3.5% of observations. In overall terms, the REA staff performed well, in accordance with the REA Management and Quality Manual. These findings serve to guarantee the quality of the data obtained, which can reliably be used for research purposes and published in the media in order to help prevent pollen-related health problems.

A model to account for variations in holm-oak (Quercus ilex subsp. ballota) acorn production in southern Spain.

One of the characteristics of holm-oak acorn production is its high variability among individuals and years. To examine the main causes of this fact, a study was conducted from 1998-2010 in a natural area of holm-oak in southern Spain, where floral phenology, fruit production, fruit size, airborne pollen emission and meteorology factors were analyzed with the ultimate aim of developing a model for forecasting holm-oak yield. Pollen emission during flowering season was the main factor determining the final acorn harvest, but also some meteorological variables played an important role in explaining acorn crop variations, especially humidity and temperature during the months of April and September. The reliability of the proposed model was externally validated using data not included in its construction; validation yielded acceptable results, with a minimum error of estimation. Our results appear to be very useful for planning cropping and pig feeding strategies. Further research could extend the use of airborne pollen counts in forest studies relating to anemophilous species, in order to optimize agricultural policies.