The AFHSC-Division of GEIS Operations Predictive Surveillance Program: a multidisciplinary approach for the early detection and response to disease outbreaks.

The Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, Division of Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System Operations (AFHSC-GEIS) initiated a coordinated, multidisciplinary program to link data sets and information derived from eco-climatic remote sensing activities, ecologic niche modeling, arthropod vector, animal disease-host/reservoir, and human disease surveillance for febrile illnesses, into a predictive surveillance program that generates advisories and alerts on emerging infectious disease outbreaks. The program's ultimate goal is pro-active public health practice through pre-event preparedness, prevention and control, and response decision-making and prioritization. This multidisciplinary program is rooted in over 10 years experience in predictive surveillance for Rift Valley fever outbreaks in Eastern Africa. The AFHSC-GEIS Rift Valley fever project is based on the identification and use of disease-emergence critical detection points as reliable signals for increased outbreak risk. The AFHSC-GEIS predictive surveillance program has formalized the Rift Valley fever project into a structured template for extending predictive surveillance capability to other Department of Defense (DoD)-priority vector- and water-borne, and zoonotic diseases and geographic areas. These include leishmaniasis, malaria, and Crimea-Congo and other viral hemorrhagic fevers in Central Asia and Africa, dengue fever in Asia and the Americas, Japanese encephalitis (JE) and chikungunya fever in Asia, and rickettsial and other tick-borne infections in the U.S., Africa and Asia.

Hospital-based surveillance for acute febrile illness in Egypt: a focus on community-acquired bloodstream infections.

Acute febrile illness (AFI) is a common syndrome in Egypt. However its etiologies are not well characterized. To determine the relative frequency of pathogen etiologies and possibly improve diagnostic, clinical management and public health measures, we implemented laboratory-based surveillance in a network of infectious disease hospitals throughout Egypt. Admitted patients with AFI provided background details and a blood sample for bacterial culture and serologic analysis. Case definitions were based on laboratory results. Of 10,130 patients evaluated between 1999 and 2003, 5% were culture positive for Salmonella enterica serogroup Typhi, 3% for Brucella, and 2% for other pathogens. An additional 18% of patients had positive serologic results for typhoid and 11% for brucellosis. Risk factor analysis identified availability of municipal water to be significantly (P < 0.05) associated with protection against typhoid. Animal contact and consumption of raw dairy products were significantly associated with brucellosis. The surveillance network identified typhoid fever and brucellosis as the most common bacterial causes of AFI in Egypt, allowed better description of their epidemiology, and may lead to the development of targeted prevention strategies.