Predicting favorable response to intravenous morphine in pediatric critically ill cardiac patients.

INTRODUCTION: Analgesia and sedation are integral to the care of critically ill children. However, the choice and dose of the analgesic or sedative drug is often empiric, and models predicting favorable responses are lacking. We aimed to compute models to predict a patient's response to intravenous morphine. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed data from consecutive patients admitted to the Cardiac Intensive Care Unit (January 2011-January 2020) who received at least one intravenous bolus of morphine. The primary outcome was a decrease in the State Behavioral Scale (SBS) ≥1 point; the secondary outcome was a decrease in the heart rate Z-score (zHR) at 30 min. Effective doses were modeled using logistic regression, Lasso regression, and random forest modeling. RESULTS: A total of 117,495 administrations of intravenous morphine among 8140 patients (median age 0.6 years [interquartile range [IQR] 0.19, 3.3]) were included. The median morphine dose was 0.051 mg/kg (IQR 0.048, 0.099) and the median 30-day cumulative dose was 2.2 mg/kg (IQR 0.4, 15.3). SBS decreased following 30% of doses, did not change following 45%, and increased following 25%. The zHR significantly decreased after morphine administration (median delta-zHR -0.34 [IQR-1.03, 0.00], p < 0.001). The following factors were associated with favorable response to morphine: A concomitant infusion of propofol, higher prior 30-day cumulative dose, being invasively ventilated and/or on vasopressors. Higher morphine dose, higher zHR pre-morphine, an additional analgosedation bolus ±30 min around the index bolus, a concomitant ketamine or dexmedetomidine infusion, and showing signs of withdrawal syndrome were associated with unfavorable response. Logistic regression (area under the receiver operating characteristic [ROC] curve [AUC] 0.900) and machine learning models (AUC 0.906) performed comparably, with a sensitivity of 95%, specificity of 71%, and negative predictive value of 97%. CONCLUSIONS: Statistical models identify 95% of effective intravenous morphine doses in pediatric critically ill cardiac patients, while incorrectly suggesting an effective dose in 29% of cases. This work represents an important step toward computer-aided, personalized clinical decision support tool for sedation and analgesia in ICU patients.

An expanded role for surgery in grade 3 1p/19q co-deleted oligodendroglioma.

Background: Grade 3 1p/19q co-deleted oligodendroglioma is an uncommon primary CNS tumor with a high rate of progression and recurrence. This study examines the benefit of surgery after progression and identifies predictors of survival. Methods: This is a single-institution retrospective cohort study of consecutive adult patients with anaplastic or grade 3 1p/19q co-deleted oligodendroglioma diagnosed between 2001 and 2020. Results: Eighty patients with 1p/19q co-deleted grade 3 oligodendroglioma were included. The median age was 47 years (interquartile range 38-56) and 38.8% were women. All patients underwent surgery, including gross total resection (GTR) for 26.3% of patients, subtotal resection (STR) for 70.0% of patients, and biopsy for 3.8% of patients. Forty-three cases (53.8%) progressed at a median of 5.6 years, and the median overall survival (OS) was 14.1 years. Among 43 cases of progression or recurrence, 21 (48.8%) underwent another resection. Patients who underwent a second operation had improved OS (P = .041) and survival after progression/recurrence (P = .012), but similar time to subsequent progression as patients who did not have repeat surgery (P = .50). Predictors of mortality at initial diagnosis included a preoperative Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS) under 80 (hazard ratio [HR] 5.4; 95% CI 1.5-19.2), an STR or biopsy rather than GTR (HR 4.1; 95% CI 1.2-14.2), and a persistent postoperative neurologic deficit (HR 4.0; 95% CI 1.2-14.1). Conclusions: Repeat surgery is associated with increased survival, but not time to subsequent progression for progressing or recurrent 1p/19q co-deleted grade 3 oligodendrogliomas recur. Mortality is associated with a preoperative KPS under 80, lack of GTR, and persistent postoperative neurologic deficits after the initial surgery.