Maternally derived antibody titer dynamics and risk of hospitalized infant dengue disease.

Infants less than 1 y of age experience high rates of dengue disease in dengue virus (DENV) endemic countries. This burden is commonly attributed to antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), whereby concentrations of maternally derived DENV antibodies become subneutralizing, and infection-enhancing. Understanding antibody-related mechanisms of enhanced infant dengue disease risk represents a significant challenge due to the dynamic nature of antibodies and their imperfect measurement processes. Further, key uncertainties exist regarding the impact of long-term shifts in birth rates, population-level infection risks, and maternal ages on the DENV immune landscape of newborns and their subsequent risks of severe dengue disease in infancy. Here, we analyze DENV antibody data from two infant cohorts (N = 142 infants with 605 blood draws) and 40 y of infant dengue hospitalization data from Thailand. We use mathematical models to reconstruct maternally derived antibody dynamics, accounting for discretized measurement processes and limits of assay detection. We then explore possible antibody-related mechanisms of enhanced infant dengue disease risk and their ability to reconstruct the observed age distribution of hospitalized infant dengue cases. We find that ADE mechanisms are best able to reconstruct the observed data. Finally, we describe how the shifting epidemiology of dengue in Thailand, combined with declining birth rates, have decreased the absolute risk of infant dengue disease by 88% over a 40-y period while having minimal impact on the mean age of infant hospitalized dengue disease.

Assessing the role of multiple mechanisms increasing the age of dengue cases in Thailand.

The mean age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases increased considerably in Thailand from 8.1 to 24.3 y between 1981 and 2017 (mean annual increase of 0.45 y). Alternative proposed explanations for this trend, such as changes in surveillance practices, reduced mosquito­human contact, and shifts in population demographics, have different implications for global dengue epidemiology. To evaluate the contribution of each of these hypothesized mechanisms to the observed data, we developed 20 nested epidemiological models of dengue virus infection, allowing for variation over time in population demographics, infection hazards, and reporting rates. We also quantified the effect of removing or retaining each source of variation in simulations of the age trajectory. Shifts in the age structure of susceptibility explained 58% of the observed change in age. Adding heterogeneous reporting by age and reductions in per-serotype infection hazard to models with shifts in susceptibility explained an additional 42%. Reductions in infection hazards were mostly driven by changes in the number of infectious individuals at any time (another consequence of shifting age demographics) rather than changes in the transmissibility of individual infections. We conclude that the demographic transition drives the overwhelming majority of the observed change as it changes both the age structure of susceptibility and the number of infectious individuals. With the projected Thai population age structure, our results suggest a continuing increase in age of DHF cases, shifting the burden toward individuals with more comorbidity. These insights into dengue epidemiology may be relevant to many regions of the globe currently undergoing comparable changes in population demographics.

Reconstruction of antibody dynamics and infection histories to evaluate dengue risk.

As with many pathogens, most dengue infections are subclinical and therefore unobserved 1 . Coupled with limited understanding of the dynamic behaviour of potential serological markers of infection, this observational problem has wide-ranging implications, including hampering our understanding of individual- and population-level correlates of infection and disease risk and how these change over time, between assay interpretations and with cohort design. Here we develop a framework that simultaneously characterizes antibody dynamics and identifies subclinical infections via Bayesian augmentation from detailed cohort data (3,451 individuals with blood draws every 91 days, 143,548 haemagglutination inhibition assay titre measurements)2,3. We identify 1,149 infections (95% confidence interval, 1,135-1,163) that were not detected by active surveillance and estimate that 65% of infections are subclinical. After infection, individuals develop a stable set point antibody load after one year that places them within or outside a risk window. Individuals with pre-existing titres of ≤1:40 develop haemorrhagic fever 7.4 (95% confidence interval, 2.5-8.2) times more often than naive individuals compared to 0.0 times for individuals with titres >1:40 (95% confidence interval: 0.0-1.3). Plaque reduction neutralization test titres ≤1:100 were similarly associated with severe disease. Across the population, variability in the size of epidemics results in large-scale temporal changes in infection and disease risk that correlate poorly with age.

Temporally integrated single cell RNA sequencing analysis of PBMC from experimental and natural primary human DENV-1 infections.

Dengue human infection studies present an opportunity to address many longstanding questions in the field of flavivirus biology. However, limited data are available on how the immunological and transcriptional response elicited by an attenuated challenge virus compares to that associated with a wild-type DENV infection. To determine the kinetic transcriptional signature associated with experimental primary DENV-1 infection and to assess how closely this profile correlates with the transcriptional signature accompanying natural primary DENV-1 infection, we utilized scRNAseq to analyze PBMC from individuals enrolled in a DENV-1 human challenge study and from individuals experiencing a natural primary DENV-1 infection. While both experimental and natural primary DENV-1 infection resulted in overlapping patterns of inflammatory gene upregulation, natural primary DENV-1 infection was accompanied with a more pronounced suppression in gene products associated with protein translation and mitochondrial function, principally in monocytes. This suggests that the immune response elicited by experimental and natural primary DENV infection are similar, but that natural primary DENV-1 infection has a more pronounced impact on basic cellular processes to induce a multi-layered anti-viral state.

Individual, Household, and Community Drivers of Dengue Virus Infection Risk in Kamphaeng Phet Province, Thailand.

BACKGROUND: Dengue virus (DENV) often circulates endemically. In such settings with high levels of transmission, it remains unclear whether there are risk factors that alter individual infection risk. METHODS: We tested blood taken from individuals living in multigenerational households in Kamphaeng Phet province, Thailand for DENV antibodies (N = 2364, mean age 31 years). Seropositivity ranged from 45.4% among those 1-5 years old to 99.5% for those >30 years. Using spatially explicit catalytic models, we estimated that 11.8% of the susceptible population gets infected annually. RESULTS: We found that 37.5% of the variance in seropositivity was explained by unmeasured household-level effects with only 4.2% explained by spatial differences between households. The serostatus of individuals from the same household remained significantly correlated even when separated by up to 15 years in age. CONCLUSIONS: These findings show that despite highly endemic transmission, persistent differences in infection risk exist across households, the reasons for which remain unclear.

Simultaneous analysis of antigen-specific B and T cells after SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination.

Conventional methods for quantifying and phenotyping antigen-specific lymphocytes can rapidly deplete irreplaceable specimens. This is due to the fact that antigen-specific T and B cells have historically been analyzed in independent assays each requiring millions of cells. A technique that facilitates the simultaneous detection of antigen-specific T and B cells would allow for more thorough immune profiling with significantly reduced sample requirements. To this end, we developed the B and T cell tandem lymphocyte evaluation (BATTLE) assay, which allows for the simultaneous identification of SARS-CoV-2 Spike reactive T and B cells using an activation induced marker (AIM) T cell assay and dual-color B cell antigen probes. Using this assay, we demonstrate that antigen-specific B and T cell subsets can be identified simultaneously using conventional flow cytometry platforms and provide insight into the differential effects of mRNA vaccination on B and T cell populations following natural SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Immunogenicity of a Live-Attenuated Dengue Vaccine Using a Heterologous Prime-Boost Strategy in a Phase 1 Randomized Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is a global health problem and the development of a tetravalent dengue vaccine with durable protection is a high priority. A heterologous prime-boost strategy has the advantage of eliciting immune responses through different mechanisms and therefore may be superior to homologous prime-boost strategies for generating durable tetravalent immunity. METHODS: In this phase 1 first-in-human heterologous prime-boost study, 80 volunteers were assigned to 4 groups and received a tetravalent dengue virus (DENV-1-4) purified inactivated vaccine (TDENV-PIV) with alum adjuvant and a tetravalent dengue virus (DENV-1-4) live attenuated vaccine (TDENV-LAV) in different orders and dosing schedules (28 or 180 days apart). RESULTS: All vaccination regimens had acceptable safety profiles and there were no vaccine-related serious adverse events. TDEN-PIV followed by TDEN-LAV induced higher neutralizing antibody titers and a higher rate of tetravalent seroconversions compared to TDEN-LAV followed by TDEN-PIV. Both TDEN-PIV followed by TDEN-LAV groups demonstrated 100% tetravalent seroconversion 28 days following the booster dose, which was maintained for most of these subjects through the day 180 measurement. CONCLUSIONS: A heterologous prime-boost vaccination strategy for dengue merits additional evaluation for safety, immunogenicity, and potential for clinical benefit. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT02239614.

A Phase 1, Open-Label Assessment of a Dengue Virus-1 Live Virus Human Challenge Strain.

BACKGROUND: Dengue human infection models (DHIM) have been used as a safe means to test the viability of prophylaxis and therapeutics. METHODS: A phase 1 study of 12 healthy adult volunteers using a challenge virus, DENV-1-LVHC strain 45AZ5, was performed. A dose escalating design was used to determine the safety and performance profile of the challenge virus. Subjects were evaluated extensively until 28 days and then out to 6 months. RESULTS: Twelve subjects received the challenge virus: 6 with 0.5 mL of 6.5 × 103 plaque-forming units (PFU)/mL (low-dose group) and 6 with 0.5 mL of 6.5 × 104 PFU/mL (mid-dose group). All except 1 in the low-dose group developed detectable viremia. For all subjects the mean incubation period was 5.9 days (range 5-9 days) and mean time of viremia was 6.8 days (range 3-9 days). Mean peak for all subjects was 1.6 × 107 genome equivalents (GE)/mL (range 4.6 × 103 to 5 × 107 GE/mL). There were no serious adverse events or long-term safety signals noted. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that DENV-1-LVHC was well-tolerated, resulted in an uncomplicated dengue illness, and may be a suitable DHIM for therapeutic and prophylactic product testing. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT02372175.

Precision Tracing of Household Dengue Spread Using Inter- and Intra-Host Viral Variation Data, Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand.

Dengue control approaches are best informed by granular spatial epidemiology of these viruses, yet reconstruction of inter- and intra-household transmissions is limited when analyzing case count, serologic, or genomic consensus sequence data. To determine viral spread on a finer spatial scale, we extended phylogenomic discrete trait analyses to reconstructions of house-to-house transmissions within a prospective cluster study in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand. For additional resolution and transmission confirmation, we mapped dengue intra-host single nucleotide variants on the taxa of these time-scaled phylogenies. This approach confirmed 19 household transmissions and revealed that dengue disperses an average of 70 m per day between households in these communities. We describe an evolutionary biology framework for the resolution of dengue transmissions that cannot be differentiated based on epidemiologic and consensus genome data alone. This framework can be used as a public health tool to inform control approaches and enable precise tracing of dengue transmissions.

Effect of Antimalarial Drugs on the Immune Response to Intramuscular Rabies Vaccination Using a Postexposure Prophylaxis Regimen.

BACKGROUND: Chloroquine can impair the immune responses to intradermal rabies vaccination. Current guidelines recommend an extra intramuscular dose be given for postexposure prophylaxis in previously unvaccinated persons taking any antimalarial drug. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, open-label, single-site study in 103 previously unvaccinated healthy adults age ≥18 to ≤60 years old to evaluate the effects of chloroquine, atovaquone/proguanil (Malarone), and doxycycline on the antibody response to a purified chick embryo cell vaccine, given on a postexposure prophylaxis schedule. All treatment groups received antimalarials 14 days prior to and during vaccination. RESULTS: All subjects achieved accepted neutralizing antibody titers of ≥0.5 IU/mL following the second rabies vaccination dose and maintained this protection through the duration of the study. We observed a reduction in rabies antibody geometric mean titer in the chloroquine versus control groups 28 days after vaccination: 2.3 versus 6.87 IU/mL, respectively (P < .001, t test). A significant difference was not observed for those taking Malarone or doxycycline. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that there is no reduction of rabies antibody response in subjects taking Malarone or doxycycline, but a significant reduction in those taking chloroquine; however, accepted antibody levels were achieved for all 3 antimalarials. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT02564471.

Micronutrients, Immunological Parameters, and Dengue Virus Infection in Coastal Ecuador: A Nested Case-Control Study in an Infectious Disease Surveillance Program.

BACKGROUND: Micronutrients are known to modulate host immunity, and there is limited literature on this association in the context of dengue virus infection (DENV). METHODS: Using a nested case-control design in a surveillance program, we measured the following: anthropometry; nutritional biomarkers including serum ferritin, soluble transferrin receptor, retinol-binding protein (RBP), 25-hydroxy vitamin D, folate, and vitamin B12; and a panel of immune response markers. We then compared these measures across 4 illness categories: healthy control, nonfebrile DENV, other febrile illness (OFI), and apparent DENV using multivariate polytomous logistic regression models. RESULTS: Among 142 participants, serum ferritin (ng/mL) was associated with apparent DENV compared to healthy controls (odds ratio [OR], 2.66; confidence interval [CI], 1.53-4.62; P = .001), and RBP concentrations (µmol/L) were associated with apparent DENV (OR, 0.03; CI, 0.00-0.30; P = .003) and OFI (OR, 0.02; CI, 0.00-0.24; P = .003). In a subset of 71 participants, interleukin-15 levels (median fluorescent intensity) were positively associated with apparent DENV (OR, 1.09; CI, 1.03-1.14; P = .001) and negatively associated with nonfebrile DENV (OR, 0.89; CI, 0.80-0.99; P = .03) compared to healthy controls. CONCLUSIONS: After adjusting for the acute-phase response, serum ferritin and RBP concentrations were associated with apparent DENV and may represent biomarkers of clinical importance in the context of dengue illness.

Serologic Response of 2 Versus 3 Doses and Intradermal Versus Intramuscular Administration of a Licensed Rabies Vaccine for Preexposure Prophylaxis.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends intradermal (ID) administration of rabies vaccine for preexposure prophylaxis. METHODS: In a randomized trial in adults assigned to 1 of 6 treatment groups (ID vs intramuscular [IM], 2 vs 3 doses, and controls), rabies neutralizing antibody titers were measured to 1 year postvaccination. RESULTS: ID vaccination produced acceptable antibody levels in all subjects (2- and 3-dose groups). At day 365, acceptable levels were 40% for IM and 50% for ID 2-dose schedule, and 70% for IM and 60% for ID 3-dose schedule. CONCLUSIONS: ID rabies vaccination induces acceptable antibody titers at a fraction of the dose. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT02374814.

The Effects of Japanese Encephalitis Vaccine and Accelerated Dosing Scheduling on the Immunogenicity of the Chimeric Yellow Fever Derived Tetravalent Dengue Vaccine: A Phase II, Randomized, Open-Label, Single-Center Trial in Adults Aged 18 to 45 Years in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is a global health problem requiring an effective, safe dengue vaccine. METHODS: We report the results of a phase II, randomized, open-label, single-center trial in adults aged 18 to 45 years in the United States designed to explore the effects of the Chimeric Yellow Fever Derived Tetravalent Dengue Vaccine (CYD-TDV, Dengvaxia) when administered on its designated schedule (months 0, 6, and 12) or on an accelerated dosing schedule (months 0, 2, and 6) and/or given before, or concomitantly with, a vaccine against Japanese encephalitis (JE). RESULTS: Based on dengue virus serotype-specific neutralizing antibody (NAb), the accelerated dosing schedule was comparable to the 0, 6, and 12-month schedule. Giving JE vaccine concurrently with CYD-TDV did not result in an increase in overall NAb titers. Immunophenotyping of peripheral blood mononuclear cells revealed an increase in activated CD8+ T cells after CYD-TDV vaccination, a phenomenon that was greatest for the JE vaccine primed. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that an accelerated dosing schedule of CYD-TDV results in essentially equivalent dengue serotype-specific NAb titers as the currently used schedule, and there may be an early benefit in antibody titers and activated CD8+ T cells by the administration of the JE vaccine before CYD-TDV vaccination.

The origins of dengue and chikungunya viruses in Ecuador following increased migration from Venezuela and Colombia.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, Ecuador and other South American countries have experienced an increase in arboviral diseases. A rise in dengue infections was followed by introductions of chikungunya and Zika, two viruses never before seen in many of these areas. Furthermore, the latest socioeconomic and political instability in Venezuela and the mass migration of its population into the neighboring countries has given rise to concerns of infectious disease spillover and escalation of arboviral spread in the region. RESULTS: We performed phylogeographic analyses of dengue (DENV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) virus genomes sampled from a surveillance site in Ecuador in 2014-2015, along with genomes from the surrounding countries. Our results revealed at least two introductions of DENV, in 2011 and late 2013, that initially originated from Venezuela and/or Colombia. The introductions were subsequent to increases in the influx of Venezuelan and Colombian citizens into Ecuador, which in 2013 were 343% and 214% higher than in 2009, respectively. However, we show that Venezuela has historically been an important source of DENV dispersal in this region, even before the massive exodus of its population, suggesting already established paths of viral distribution. Like DENV, CHIKV was introduced into Ecuador at multiple time points in 2013-2014, but unlike DENV, these introductions were associated with the Caribbean. Our findings indicated no direct CHIKV connection between Ecuador, Colombia, and Venezuela as of 2015, suggesting that CHIKV was, at this point, not following the paths of DENV spread. CONCLUSION: Our results reveal that Ecuador is vulnerable to arbovirus import from many geographic locations, emphasizing the need of continued surveillance and more diversified prevention strategies. Importantly, increase in human movement along established paths of viral dissemination, combined with regional outbreaks and epidemics, may facilitate viral spread and lead to novel virus introductions. Thus, strengthening infectious disease surveillance and control along migration routes and improving access to healthcare for the vulnerable populations is of utmost importance.

An Innovative, Prospective, Hybrid Cohort-Cluster Study Design to Characterize Dengue Virus Transmission in Multigenerational Households in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand.

Difficulties inherent in the identification of immune correlates of protection or severe disease have challenged the development and evaluation of dengue vaccines. There persist substantial gaps in knowledge about the complex effects of age and sequential dengue virus (DENV) exposures on these correlations. To address these gaps, we were conducting a novel family-based cohort-cluster study for DENV transmission in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand. The study began in 2015 and is funded until at least 2023. As of May 2019, 2,870 individuals in 485 families were actively enrolled. The families comprise at least 1 child born into the study as a newborn, 1 other child, a parent, and a grandparent. The median age of enrolled participants is 21 years (range 0-93 years). Active surveillance is performed to detect acute dengue illnesses, and annual blood testing identifies subclinical seroconversions. Extended follow-up of this cohort will detect sequential infections and correlate antibody kinetics and sequence of infections with disease outcomes. The central goal of this prospective study is to characterize how different DENV exposure histories within multigenerational family units, from DENV-naive infants to grandparents with multiple prior DENV exposures, affect transmission, disease, and protection at the level of the individual, household, and community.

Dengue virus non-structural protein 1 activates the p38 MAPK pathway to decrease barrier integrity in primary human endothelial cells.

Dengue virus (DENV) causes an estimated 390 million infections worldwide annually, with severe forms of disease marked by vascular leakage. Endothelial cells (EC) are directly responsible for vascular homeostasis and are highly responsive to circulating mediators but are not commonly infected. DENV encodes seven non-structural (NS) proteins; with only one of those, NS1, secreted from infected cells and accumulating in the blood of patients. NS1 has been implicated in the pathogenesis of vascular permeability, but the mechanism is not completely understood. Here we used primary endothelial cells and an array of in vitro approaches to study the effect of NS1 in disease-relevant human ECs. Confocal microscopy demonstrated rapid NS1 internalization by ECs into endosomes with accumulation over time. Transcriptomic and pathway analysis showed significant changes in functions associated with EC homeostasis and vascular permeability. Functional significance of this activation was assessed by trans-endothelial electrical resistance and showed that NS1 induced rapid and transient loss in EC barrier function within 3 h post-treatment. To understand the molecular mechanism by which NS1 induced EC activation, we evaluated the stress-sensing p38 MAPK pathway known to be directly involved in EC permeability and inflammation. WB analysis of NS1-stimulated ECs showed clear activation of p38 MAPK and downstream effectors MAPKAPK-2 and HSP27 with chemical inhibition of the p38 MAP kinase pathway restoring barrier function. Our results suggest that DENV NS1 may be involved in the pathogenesis of severe dengue by activating the p38 MAPK in ECs, promoting increased permeability that characterizes severe disease.

A comparison of passive surveillance and active cluster-based surveillance for dengue fever in southern coastal Ecuador.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is a major emerging infectious disease, endemic throughout the tropics and subtropics, with approximately 2.5 billion people at risk globally. Active (AS) and passive surveillance (PS), when combined, can improve our understanding of dengue's complex disease dynamics to guide effective, targeted public health interventions. The objective of this study was to compare findings from the Ministry of Health (MoH) PS to a prospective AS arbovirus research study in Machala, Ecuador in 2014 and 2015. METHODS: Dengue cases in the PS system were compared to laboratory confirmed acute dengue illness cases that entered the AS study during the study period. Variables of interest included age class and sex. Outbreak detection curves by epidemiologic week, overall cumulative incidence and age-specific incidence proportions were calculated. Descriptive statistics were tabulated for all variables of interest. Chi-square tests were performed to compare demographic characteristics between the AS and PS data sets in 2014 and 2015. RESULTS: 177 and 245 cases were identified from 1/1/2014 to 12/31/2015 by PS and AS, respectively; nine cases appeared in both systems. AS identified a greater number of laboratory-confirmed cases in 2014, accounting for more than 60% of dengue cases in the study area. In 2015, the opposite trend was observed with PS identifying 60% of the dengue cases in the study area. Peak transmission time in laboratory confirmed dengue illness, as noted by AS and PS was similar in 2014, whereas earlier detection (7 weeks) was observed by AS in 2015. Younger patients were more frequently identified by PS, while older patients were identified more frequently by AS. The cumulative incidence proportion for laboratory confirmed dengue illness reported via PS to the MoH was 4.12 cases per 10,000 residents in 2014, and 2.21 cases per 10,000 residents in 2015. CONCLUSIONS: Each surveillance system captured distinct demographic subgroups within the Machala population, possibly due to differences in healthcare seeking behaviors, access to care, emerging threats of other viruses transmitted by the same mosquito vector and/or differences in clinical presentation. Integrating AS with pre-existing PS can aid in identifying additional cases in previously underdiagnosed subpopulations, improving our understanding of disease dynamics, and facilitating the implementation of timely public health interventions.

The Emergence of Zika Virus: A Narrative Review.

Zika virus (ZIKV) is yet another arbovirus that is rapidly emerging on a global scale, on the heels of a chikungunya epidemic in the Americas that began in 2013. A ZIKV epidemic that began in Brazil in 2015 has now spread rapidly to more than 30 countries in the Americas and the Caribbean, infecting more than 2 million inhabitants. This epidemic currently continues unabated. The explosive nature of recent outbreaks and concerning links to Guillain-Barré syndrome and microcephaly are incompletely understood. Also unknown is the relative importance of sexual transmission of ZIKV and asymptomatic ZIKV infections to the overall burden of transmission. The limited understanding of ZIKV presents an enormous challenge for responses to this rapidly emerging threat to human health. This article reviews the existing literature on ZIKV and proposes critical questions for vaccine development and other areas of needed research.

Sequential dengue virus infections detected in active and passive surveillance programs in Thailand, 1994-2010.

BACKGROUND: The effect of prior dengue virus (DENV) exposure on subsequent heterologous infection can be beneficial or detrimental depending on many factors including timing of infection. We sought to evaluate this effect by examining a large database of DENV infections captured by both active and passive surveillance encompassing a wide clinical spectrum of disease. METHODS: We evaluated datasets from 17 years of hospital-based passive surveillance and nine years of cohort studies, including clinical and subclinical DENV infections, to assess the outcomes of sequential heterologous infections. Chi square or Fisher's exact test was used to compare proportions of infection outcomes such as disease severity; ANOVA was used for continuous variables. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess risk factors for infection outcomes. RESULTS: Of 38,740 DENV infections, two or more infections were detected in 502 individuals; 14 had three infections. The mean ages at the time of the first and second detected infections were 7.6 ± 3.0 and 11.2 ± 3.0 years. The shortest time between sequential infections was 66 days. A longer time interval between sequential infections was associated with dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) in the second detected infection (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.2-1.4). All possible sequential serotype pairs were observed among 201 subjects with DHF at the second detected infection, except DENV-4 followed by DENV-3. Among DENV infections detected in cohort subjects by active study surveillance and subsequent non-study hospital-based passive surveillance, hospitalization at the first detected infection increased the likelihood of hospitalization at the second detected infection. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing time between sequential DENV infections was associated with greater severity of the second detected infection, supporting the role of heterotypic immunity in both protection and enhancement. Hospitalization was positively associated between the first and second detected infections, suggesting a possible predisposition in some individuals to more severe dengue disease.

Revealing the microscale spatial signature of dengue transmission and immunity in an urban population.

It is well-known that the distribution of immunity in a population dictates the future incidence of infectious disease, but this process is generally understood at individual or macroscales. For example, herd immunity to multiple pathogens has been observed at national and city levels. However, the effects of population immunity have not previously been shown at scales smaller than the city (e.g., neighborhoods). In particular, no study has shown long-term effects of population immunity at scales consistent with the spatial scale of person-to-person transmission. Here, we use the location of dengue patients' homes in Bangkok with the serotype of the infecting pathogen to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of disease risk at small spatial scales over a 5-y period. We find evidence for localized transmission at distances of under 1 km. We also observe patterns of spatiotemporal dependence consistent with the expected impacts of homotypic immunity, heterotypic immunity, and immune enhancement of disease at these distances. Our observations indicate that immunological memory of dengue serotypes occurs at the neighborhood level in this large urban setting. These methods have broad applications to studying the spatiotemporal structure of disease risk where pathogen serotype or genetic information is known.