Recurrent jellyfish blooms are a consequence of global oscillations.

A perceived recent increase in global jellyfish abundance has been portrayed as a symptom of degraded oceans. This perception is based primarily on a few case studies and anecdotal evidence, but a formal analysis of global temporal trends in jellyfish populations has been missing. Here, we analyze all available long-term datasets on changes in jellyfish abundance across multiple coastal stations, using linear and logistic mixed models and effect-size analysis to show that there is no robust evidence for a global increase in jellyfish. Although there has been a small linear increase in jellyfish since the 1970s, this trend was unsubstantiated by effect-size analysis that showed no difference in the proportion of increasing vs. decreasing jellyfish populations over all time periods examined. Rather, the strongest nonrandom trend indicated jellyfish populations undergo larger, worldwide oscillations with an approximate 20-y periodicity, including a rising phase during the 1990s that contributed to the perception of a global increase in jellyfish abundance. Sustained monitoring is required over the next decade to elucidate with statistical confidence whether the weak increasing linear trend in jellyfish after 1970 is an actual shift in the baseline or part of an oscillation. Irrespective of the nature of increase, given the potential damage posed by jellyfish blooms to fisheries, tourism, and other human industries, our findings foretell recurrent phases of rise and fall in jellyfish populations that society should be prepared to face.

Under-ice observations by trawls and multi-frequency acoustics in the Central Arctic Ocean reveals abundance and composition of pelagic fauna.

The rapid ongoing changes in the Central Arctic Ocean call for baseline information on the pelagic fauna. However, sampling for motile organisms which easily escape vertically towed nets is challenging. Here, we report the species composition and catch weight of pelagic fishes and larger zooplankton from 12 trawl hauls conducted in ice covered waters in the Central Arctic Ocean beyond the continental slopes in late summer. Combined trawl catches with acoustics data revealed low amounts of fish and zooplankton from the advective influenced slope region in the Nansen Basin in the south to the ice-covered deep Amundsen Basin in the north. Both arctic and subarctic-boreal species, including the ones considered as Atlantic expatriate species were found all the way to 87.5o N. We found three fish species (Boreogadus saida, Benthosema glaciale and Reinhardtius hippoglossoides), but the catch was limited to only seven individuals. Euphausiids, amphipods and gelatinous zooplankton dominated the catch weight in the Nansen Basin in the mesopelagic communities. Euphausiids were almost absent in the Amundsen Basin with copepods, amphipods, chaetognaths and gelatinous zooplankton dominating. We postulate asymmetric conditions in the pelagic ecosystems of the western and eastern Eurasian Basin caused by ice and ocean circulation regimes.

Polar cod in jeopardy under the retreating Arctic sea ice.

The Arctic amplification of global warming is causing the Arctic-Atlantic ice edge to retreat at unprecedented rates. Here we show how variability and change in sea ice cover in the Barents Sea, the largest shelf sea of the Arctic, affect the population dynamics of a keystone species of the ice-associated food web, the polar cod (Boreogadus saida). The data-driven biophysical model of polar cod early life stages assembled here predicts a strong mechanistic link between survival and variation in ice cover and temperature, suggesting imminent recruitment collapse should the observed ice-reduction and heating continue. Backtracking of drifting eggs and larvae from observations also demonstrates a northward retreat of one of two clearly defined spawning assemblages, possibly in response to warming. With annual to decadal ice-predictions under development the mechanistic physical-biological links presented here represent a powerful tool for making long-term predictions for the propagation of polar cod stocks.

Deep vision: an in-trawl stereo camera makes a step forward in monitoring the pelagic community.

Ecosystem surveys are carried out annually in the Barents Sea by Russia and Norway to monitor the spatial distribution of ecosystem components and to study population dynamics. One component of the survey is mapping the upper pelagic zone using a trawl towed at several depths. However, the current technique with a single codend does not provide fine-scale spatial data needed to directly study species overlaps. An in-trawl camera system, Deep Vision, was mounted in front of the codend in order to acquire continuous images of all organisms passing. It was possible to identify and quantify of most young-of-the-year fish (e.g. Gadus morhua, Boreogadus saida and Reinhardtius hippoglossoides) and zooplankton, including Ctenophora, which are usually damaged in the codend. The system showed potential for measuring the length of small organisms and also recorded the vertical and horizontal positions where individuals were imaged. Young-of-the-year fish were difficult to identify when passing the camera at maximum range and to quantify during high densities. In addition, a large number of fish with damaged opercula were observed passing the Deep Vision camera during heaving; suggesting individuals had become entangled in meshes farther forward in the trawl. This indicates that unknown numbers of fish are probably lost in forward sections of the trawl and that the heaving procedure may influence the number of fish entering the codend, with implications for abundance indices and understanding population dynamics. This study suggests modifications to the Deep Vision and the trawl to increase our understanding of the population dynamics.

Biomass of scyphozoan jellyfish, and its spatial association with 0-group fish in the Barents Sea.

An 0-group fish survey is conducted annually in the Barents Sea in order to estimate fish population abundance. Data on jellyfish by-catch have been recorded since 1980, although this dataset has never been analysed. In recent years, however, the ecological importance of jellyfish medusae has become widely recognized. In this paper the biomass of jellyfish (medusae) in 0-60 m depths is calculated for the period 1980-2010. During this period the climate changed from cold to warm, and changes in zooplankton and fish distribution and abundance were observed. This paper discusses the less well known ecosystem component; jellyfish medusae within the Phylum Cnidaria, and their spatial and temporal variation. The long term average was ca. 9×108 kg, with some years showing biomasses in excess of 5×109 kg. The biomasses were low during 1980s, increased during 1990s, and were highest in early 2000s with a subsequent decline. The bulk of the jellyfish were observed in the central parts of the Barents Sea, which is a core area for most 0-group fishes. Jellyfish were associated with haddock in the western area, with haddock and herring in the central and coastal area, and with capelin in the northern area of the Barents Sea. The jellyfish were present in the temperature interval 1°C

Real-time ichthyoplankton drift in Northeast Arctic cod and Norwegian spring-spawning herring.

BACKGROUND: Individual-based biophysical larval models, initialized and parameterized by observations, enable numerical investigations of various factors regulating survival of young fish until they recruit into the adult population. Exponentially decreasing numbers in Northeast Arctic cod and Norwegian Spring Spawning herring early changes emphasizes the importance of early life history, when ichthyoplankton exhibit pelagic free drift. However, while most studies are concerned with past recruitment variability it is also important to establish real-time predictions of ichthyoplankton distributions due to the increasing human activity in fish habitats and the need for distribution predictions that could potentially improve field coverage of ichthyoplankton. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A system has been developed for operational simulation of ichthyoplankton distributions. We have coupled a two-day ocean forecasts from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute with an individual-based ichthyoplankton model for Northeast Arctic cod and Norwegian Spring Spawning herring producing daily updated maps of ichthyoplankton distributions. Recent years observed spawning distribution and intensity have been used as input to the model system. The system has been running in an operational mode since 2008. Surveys are expensive and distributions of early stages are therefore only covered once or twice a year. Comparison between model and observations are therefore limited in time. However, the observed and simulated distributions of juvenile fish tend to agree well during early fall. Area-overlap between modeled and observed juveniles September 1(st) range from 61 to 73%, and 61 to 71% when weighted by concentrations. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The model system may be used to evaluate the design of ongoing surveys, to quantify the overlap with harmful substances in the ocean after accidental spills, as well as management planning of particular risky operations at sea. The modeled distributions are already utilized during research surveys to estimate coverage success of sampled biota and immediately after spills from ships at sea.