Reducing global air pollution: the scope for further policy interventions.

Over the last decades, energy and pollution control policies combined with structural changes in the economy decoupled emission trends from economic growth, increasingly also in the developing world. It is found that effective implementation of the presently decided national pollution control regulations should allow further economic growth without major deterioration of ambient air quality, but will not be enough to reduce pollution levels in many world regions. A combination of ambitious policies focusing on pollution controls, energy and climate, agricultural production systems and addressing human consumption habits could drastically improve air quality throughout the world. By 2040, mean population exposure to PM2.5 from anthropogenic sources could be reduced by about 75% relative to 2015 and brought well below the WHO guideline in large areas of the world. While the implementation of the proposed technical measures is likely to be technically feasible in the future, the transformative changes of current practices will require strong political will, supported by a full appreciation of the multiple benefits. Improved air quality would avoid a large share of the current 3-9 million cases of premature deaths annually. At the same time, the measures that deliver clean air would also significantly reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and contribute to multiple UN sustainable development goals. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Air quality, past present and future'.

Author Correction: Global and regional trends of atmospheric sulfur.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Global and regional trends of atmospheric sulfur.

The profound changes in global SO2 emissions over the last decades have affected atmospheric composition on a regional and global scale with large impact on air quality, atmospheric deposition and the radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols. Reproduction of historical atmospheric pollution levels based on global aerosol models and emission changes is crucial to prove that such models are able to predict future scenarios. Here, we analyze consistency of trends in observations of sulfur components in air and precipitation from major regional networks and estimates from six different global aerosol models from 1990 until 2015. There are large interregional differences in the sulfur trends consistently captured by the models and observations, especially for North America and Europe. Europe had the largest reductions in sulfur emissions in the first part of the period while the highest reduction came later in North America and East Asia. The uncertainties in both the emissions and the representativity of the observations are larger in Asia. However, emissions from East Asia clearly increased from 2000 to 2005 followed by a decrease, while in India a steady increase over the whole period has been observed and modelled. The agreement between a bottom-up approach, which uses emissions and process-based chemical transport models, with independent observations gives an improved confidence in the understanding of the atmospheric sulfur budget.

Trends of nitrogen in air and precipitation: model results and observations at EMEP sites in Europe, 1980--2003.

We analyze trends of some nitrogen compounds using long-term measurements and results from the EMEP (co-operative programme for monitoring and evaluation of the long-range transmissions of air pollutants in Europe) chemical transport model at EMEP sites. We find statistically significant declines at the majority of sites for NH(x) (sum of ammonia and ammonium) in air and for nitrate and ammonium in precipitation, but only at a few sites for xNO3 (sum of nitrate and nitric acid) in air. Model calculations and measurements give similar results. We demonstrate that the lack of trends for xNO3 in air at least partly can be attributed to a shift in the equilibrium between nitric acid and ammonium nitrate towards particulate phase, caused by reductions in the sulfur dioxide emissions.

Modelling spatial patterns of correlations between concentrations of heavy metals in mosses and atmospheric deposition in 2010 across Europe.

BACKGROUND: This paper aims to investigate the correlations between the concentrations of nine heavy metals in moss and atmospheric deposition within ecological land classes covering Europe. Additionally, it is examined to what extent the statistical relations are affected by the land use around the moss sampling sites. Based on moss data collected in 2010/2011 throughout Europe and data on total atmospheric deposition modelled by two chemical transport models (EMEP MSC-E, LOTOS-EUROS), correlation coefficients between concentrations of heavy metals in moss and in modelled atmospheric deposition were specified for spatial subsamples defined by ecological land classes of Europe (ELCE) as a spatial reference system. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and logistic regression (LR) were then used to separate moss sampling sites regarding their contribution to the strength of correlation considering the areal percentage of urban, agricultural and forestry land use around the sampling location. After verification LDA models by LR, LDA models were used to transform spatial information on the land use to maps of potential correlation levels, applicable for future network planning in the European Moss Survey. RESULTS: Correlations between concentrations of heavy metals in moss and in modelled atmospheric deposition were found to be specific for elements and ELCE units. Land use around the sampling sites mainly influences the correlation level. Small radiuses around the sampling sites examined (5 km) are more relevant for Cd, Cu, Ni, and Zn, while the areal percentage of urban and agricultural land use within large radiuses (75-100 km) is more relevant for As, Cr, Hg, Pb, and V. Most valid LDA models pattern with error rates of < 40% were found for As, Cr, Cu, Hg, Pb, and V. Land use-dependent predictions of spatial patterns split up Europe into investigation areas revealing potentially high (= above-average) or low (= below-average) correlation coefficients. CONCLUSIONS: LDA is an eligible method identifying and ranking boundary conditions of correlations between atmospheric deposition and respective concentrations of heavy metals in moss and related mapping considering the influence of the land use around moss sampling sites.

Eutrophication assessment of the Baltic Sea Protected Areas by available data and GIS technologies.

Concerning increased degradation of marine ecosystems, there is a great political and institutional demand for an array of different tools to restore a good environmental status. Thereby, eutrophication is acknowledged as one of the major human induced stressors which has to be monitored and reduced. The present study concentrates on an assessment of the eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea Protected Areas by use of available data and GIS technologies. Two geodata layers were used for analysis: (1) a map on the eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea generated by the Helsinki Commission applying the HELCOM Eutrophication Assessment Tool (HEAT), and (2) modelled data on atmospheric nitrogen deposition made available by the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP). The results yielded comprehensive and conclusive data indicating that most of the BSPAs may be classified as being 'affected by eutrophication' and underlining the need to decrease the overall emissions of nutrients.