Modeling US blood donor deferrals under a policy of individual risk assessment for HIV risk sexual behavior.

BACKGROUND: In May 2023, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) released final guidance for blood donor eligibility that recommended the elimination of 3-month deferral for men who have sex with men (MSM) and the related deferral for women who have sex with MSM. In its place, FDA introduced an individual risk assessment policy of asking all presenting blood donors, regardless of sex or gender, if they have had a new partner or more than one sexual partner in the last 3 months and deferring those who also report anal sex (penile-anal intercourse) during this period. We modeled the possible impact of this policy on the US blood donor base. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We developed a computational model to estimate the percentage of blood donors who would be deferred under a policy of individual HIV risk assessment. The model incorporated demographic information about donors and national survey data on HIV risk behaviors and included age and sex distributions and dependencies. RESULTS: Our model estimates that approximately 1.2% of US blood donors would be deferred under the individual HIV risk assessment paradigm. DISCUSSION: The model predicts a relatively minor effect of replacing the time-based deferral for MSM with individual risk-based deferral for sexual behavior. As US blood centers implement this new policy, the effect may be mitigated by donor gains, which warrant further study. The new policy is unlikely to adversely affect the availability of blood and blood components.

Effectiveness of BNT162b2 COVID-19 primary series vaccination in children aged 5-17 years in the United States: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 vaccines are authorized for use in children in the United States; real-world assessment of vaccine effectiveness in children is needed. This study's objective was to estimate the effectiveness of receiving a complete primary series of monovalent BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) COVID-19 vaccine in US children. METHODS: This cohort study identified children aged 5-17 years vaccinated with BNT162b2 matched with unvaccinated children. Participants and BNT162b2 vaccinations were identified in Optum and CVS Health insurance administrative claims databases linked with Immunization Information System (IIS) COVID-19 vaccination records from 16 US jurisdictions between December 11, 2020, and May 31, 2022 (end date varied by database and IIS). Vaccinated children were followed from their first BNT162b2 dose and matched to unvaccinated children on calendar date, US county of residence, and demographic and clinical factors. Censoring occurred if vaccinated children failed to receive a timely dose 2 or if unvaccinated children received any dose. Two COVID-19 outcome definitions were evaluated: COVID-19 diagnosis in any medical setting and COVID-19 diagnosis in hospitals/emergency departments (EDs). Propensity score-weighted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated with Cox proportional hazards models, and vaccine effectiveness (VE) was estimated as 1 minus HR. VE was estimated overall, within age subgroups, and within variant-specific eras. Sensitivity, negative control, and quantitative bias analyses evaluated various potential biases. RESULTS: There were 453,655 eligible vaccinated children one-to-one matched to unvaccinated comparators (mean age 12 years; 50% female). COVID-19 hospitalizations/ED visits were rare in children, regardless of vaccination status (Optum, 41.2 per 10,000 person-years; CVS Health, 44.1 per 10,000 person-years). Overall, vaccination was associated with reduced incidence of any medically diagnosed COVID-19 (meta-analyzed VE = 38% [95% CI, 36-40%]) and hospital/ED-diagnosed COVID-19 (meta-analyzed VE = 61% [95% CI, 56-65%]). VE estimates were lowest among children 5-11 years and during the Omicron-variant era. CONCLUSIONS: Receipt of a complete BNT162b2 vaccine primary series was associated with overall reduced medically diagnosed COVID-19 and hospital/ED-diagnosed COVID-19 in children; observed VE estimates differed by age group and variant era. REGISTRATION: The study protocol was publicly posted on the BEST Initiative website ( https://bestinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/C19-VX-Effectiveness-Protocol_2022_508.pdf ).

Stroke Risk After COVID-19 Bivalent Vaccination Among US Older Adults.

Importance: In January 2023, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US Food and Drug Administration noted a safety concern for ischemic stroke among adults aged 65 years or older who received the Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2; WT/OMI BA.4/BA.5 COVID-19 bivalent vaccine. Objective: To evaluate stroke risk after administration of (1) either brand of the COVID-19 bivalent vaccine, (2) either brand of the COVID-19 bivalent plus a high-dose or adjuvanted influenza vaccine on the same day (concomitant administration), and (3) a high-dose or adjuvanted influenza vaccine. Design, Setting, and Participants: Self-controlled case series including 11 001 Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older who experienced stroke after receiving either brand of the COVID-19 bivalent vaccine (among 5 397 278 vaccinated individuals). The study period was August 31, 2022, through February 4, 2023. Exposures: Receipt of (1) either brand of the COVID-19 bivalent vaccine (primary) or (2) a high-dose or adjuvanted influenza vaccine (secondary). Main Outcomes and Measures: Stroke risk (nonhemorrhagic stroke, transient ischemic attack, combined outcome of nonhemorrhagic stroke or transient ischemic attack, or hemorrhagic stroke) during the 1- to 21-day or 22- to 42-day risk window after vaccination vs the 43- to 90-day control window. Results: There were 5 397 278 Medicare beneficiaries who received either brand of the COVID-19 bivalent vaccine (median age, 74 years [IQR, 70-80 years]; 56% were women). Among the 11 001 beneficiaries who experienced stroke after receiving either brand of the COVID-19 bivalent vaccine, there were no statistically significant associations between either brand of the COVID-19 bivalent vaccine and the outcomes of nonhemorrhagic stroke, transient ischemic attack, nonhemorrhagic stroke or transient ischemic attack, or hemorrhagic stroke during the 1- to 21-day or 22- to 42-day risk window vs the 43- to 90-day control window (incidence rate ratio [IRR] range, 0.72-1.12). Among the 4596 beneficiaries who experienced stroke after concomitant administration of either brand of the COVID-19 bivalent vaccine plus a high-dose or adjuvanted influenza vaccine, there was a statistically significant association between vaccination and nonhemorrhagic stroke during the 22- to 42-day risk window for the Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2; WT/OMI BA.4/BA.5 COVID-19 bivalent vaccine (IRR, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.01-1.42]; risk difference/100 000 doses, 3.13 [95% CI, 0.05-6.22]) and a statistically significant association between vaccination and transient ischemic attack during the 1- to 21-day risk window for the Moderna mRNA-1273.222 COVID-19 bivalent vaccine (IRR, 1.35 [95% CI, 1.06-1.74]; risk difference/100 000 doses, 3.33 [95% CI, 0.46-6.20]). Among the 21 345 beneficiaries who experienced stroke after administration of a high-dose or adjuvanted influenza vaccine, there was a statistically significant association between vaccination and nonhemorrhagic stroke during the 22- to 42-day risk window (IRR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.02-1.17]; risk difference/100 000 doses, 1.65 [95% CI, 0.43-2.87]). Conclusions and Relevance: Among Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older who experienced stroke after receiving either brand of the COVID-19 bivalent vaccine, there was no evidence of a significantly elevated risk for stroke during the days immediately after vaccination.

Risk of myocarditis and pericarditis after the COVID-19 mRNA vaccination in the USA: a cohort study in claims databases.

BACKGROUND: Several passive surveillance systems reported increased risks of myocarditis or pericarditis, or both, after COVID-19 mRNA vaccination, especially in young men. We used active surveillance from large health-care databases to quantify and enable the direct comparison of the risk of myocarditis or pericarditis, or both, after mRNA-1273 (Moderna) and BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) vaccinations. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study, examining the primary outcome of myocarditis or pericarditis, or both, identified using the International Classification of Diseases diagnosis codes, occurring 1-7 days post-vaccination, evaluated in COVID-19 mRNA vaccinees aged 18-64 years using health plan claims databases in the USA. Observed (O) incidence rates were compared with expected (E) incidence rates estimated from historical cohorts by each database. We used multivariate Poisson regression to estimate the adjusted incidence rates, specific to each brand of vaccine, and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) comparing mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2. We used meta-analyses to pool the adjusted incidence rates and IRRs across databases. FINDINGS: A total of 411 myocarditis or pericarditis, or both, events were observed among 15 148 369 people aged 18-64 years who received 16 912 716 doses of BNT162b2 and 10 631 554 doses of mRNA-1273. Among men aged 18-25 years, the pooled incidence rate was highest after the second dose, at 1·71 (95% CI 1·31 to 2·23) per 100 000 person-days for BNT162b2 and 2·17 (1·55 to 3·04) per 100 000 person-days for mRNA-1273. The pooled IRR in the head-to-head comparison of the two mRNA vaccines was 1·43 (95% CI 0·88 to 2·34), with an excess risk of 27·80 per million doses (-21·88 to 77·48) in mRNA-1273 recipients compared with BNT162b2. INTERPRETATION: An increased risk of myocarditis or pericarditis was observed after COVID-19 mRNA vaccination and was highest in men aged 18-25 years after a second dose of the vaccine. However, the incidence was rare. These results do not indicate a statistically significant risk difference between mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2, but it should not be ruled out that a difference might exist. Our study results, along with the benefit-risk profile, continue to support vaccination using either of the two mRNA vaccines. FUNDING: US Food and Drug Administration.

HIV risk behavior profiles among men who have sex with men interested in donating blood: Findings from the Assessing Donor Variability and New Concepts in Eligibility study.

BACKGROUND: Individual risk assessment allows donors to be evaluated based on their own behaviors. Study objectives were to assess human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk behaviors in men who have sex with men (MSM) and estimate the proportion of the study population who would not be deferred for higher risk HIV sexual behaviors. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Cross-sectional survey and biomarker assessment were conducted in eight U.S. cities. Participants were sexually active MSM interested in blood donation aged 18-39 years, assigned male sex at birth. Participants completed surveys during two study visits to define eligibility, and self-reported sexual and HIV prevention behaviors. Blood was drawn at study visit 1 and tested for HIV and the presence of tenofovir, one of the drugs in oral HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). Associations were assessed between HIV infection status or HIV PrEP use and behaviors, including sex partners, new partners, and anal sex. RESULTS: A total of 1566 MSM completed the visit 1 questionnaire and blood draw and 1197 completed the visit 2 questionnaire. Among 1562 persons without HIV, 789 (50.4%) were not taking PrEP. Of those not taking PrEP, 66.2% reported one sexual partner or no anal sex and 69% reported no new sexual partners or no anal sex with a new partner in the past 3 months. CONCLUSION: The study found that questions were able to identify sexually active, HIV-negative MSM who report lower risk sexual behaviors. About a quarter of enrolled study participants would be potentially eligible blood donors using individual risk assessment questions.

Risk Factors for COVID-19 Deaths Among Elderly Nursing Home Medicare Beneficiaries in the Prevaccine Period.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated prevaccine pandemic period COVID-19 death risk factors among nursing home (NH) residents. METHODS: In a retrospective cohort study covering Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged ≥65 years residing in US NHs, we estimated adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regressions. RESULTS: Among 608251 elderly NH residents, 57398 (9.4%) died of COVID-19-related illness 1 April to 22 December 2020; 46.9% (26893) of these deaths occurred without prior COVID-19 hospitalizations. We observed a consistently increasing age trend for COVID-19 deaths. Racial/ethnic minorities shared similarly high risk of NH COVID-19 deaths with whites. NH facility characteristics for-profit ownership and low health inspection ratings were associated with higher death risk. Resident characteristics (male [HR, 1.69], end-stage renal disease [HR, 1.42], cognitive impairment [HR, 1.34], and immunocompromised status [HR, 1.20]) were death risk factors. Other individual-level characteristics were less predictive of death than in community-dwelling population. CONCLUSIONS: Low NH health inspection ratings and private ownership contributed to COVID-19 death risks. Nearly half of NH COVID-19 deaths occurred without prior COVID-19 hospitalization and older residents were less likely to get hospitalized with COVID-19. No substantial differences were observed by race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status for NH COVID-19 deaths.

Early administration of COVID-19 convalescent plasma with high titer antibody content by live viral neutralization assay is associated with modest clinical efficacy.

The efficacy of COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) as a treatment for hospitalized patients with COVID-19 remains somewhat controversial; however, many studies have not evaluated CCP documented to have high neutralizing antibody titer by a highly accurate assay. To evaluate the correlation of the administration of CCP with titer determined by a live viral neutralization assay with 7- and 28-day death rates during hospitalization, a total of 23 118 patients receiving a single unit of CCP were stratified into two groups: those receiving high titer CCP (>250 50% inhibitory dilution, ID50; n = 13 636) or low titer CCP (≤250 ID50; n = 9482). Multivariable Cox regression was performed to assess risk factors. Non-intubated patients who were transfused with high titer CCP showed 1.1% and 1.7% absolute reductions in overall 7- and 28-day death rates, respectively, compared to those non-intubated patients receiving low titer CCP. No benefit of CCP was observed in intubated patients. The relative benefit of high titer CCP was confirmed in multivariable Cox regression. Administration of CCP with high titer antibody content determined by live viral neutralization assay to non-intubated patients is associated with modest clinical efficacy. Although shown to be only of modest clinical benefit, CCP may play a role in the future should viral variants develop that are not neutralized by other available therapeutics.

Natural History of Coronavirus Disease 2019: Risk Factors for Hospitalizations and Deaths Among >26 Million US Medicare Beneficiaries.

BACKGROUND: The current study was performed to evaluate risk factors for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes among Medicare beneficiaries during the pandemic's early phase. METHODS: In a retrospective cohort study covering Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries, we separated out elderly residents in nursing homes (NHs) and those with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) from the primary study population of individuals age ≥65 years. Outcomes included COVID-19 hospital encounters and COVID-19-associated deaths. We estimated adjusted odds ratios (ORs) using logistic regression. RESULTS: We analyzed 25 333 329 elderly non-NH beneficiaries without ESRD, 653 966 elderly NH residents, and 292 302 patients with ESRD. COVID-related death rates (per 10 000) were much higher among elderly NH residents (275.7) and patients with ESRD (60.8) than in the primary study population (5.0). Regression-adjusted clinical predictors of death among the primary population included immunocompromised status (OR, 1.43), frailty index conditions such as cognitive impairment (3.16), and other comorbid conditions, including congestive heart failure (1.30). Demographic-related risk factors included male sex (OR, 1.77), older age (3.09 for 80- vs 65-year-olds), Medicaid dual-eligibility status (2.17), and racial/ethnic minority. Compared with whites, ORs were higher for blacks (2.47), Hispanics (3.11), and Native Americans (5.82). Results for COVID-19 hospital encounters were consistent. CONCLUSIONS: Frailty, comorbid conditions, and race/ethnicity were strong risk factors for COVID-19 hospitalization and death among the US elderly.

Guillain-Barré Syndrome After High-Dose Influenza Vaccine Administration in the United States, 2018-2019 Season.

BACKGROUND: The Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD) identified a statistical signal for an increased risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) in days 1-42 after 2018-2019 high-dose influenza vaccine (IIV3-HD) administration. We evaluated the signal using Medicare. METHODS: We conducted early- and end-of-season claims-based self-controlled risk interval analyses among Medicare beneficiaries ages ≥65 years, using days 8-21 and 1-42 postvaccination as risk windows and days 43-84 as control window. The VSD conducted chart-confirmed analyses. RESULTS: Among 7 453 690 IIV3-HD vaccinations, we did not detect a statistically significant increased GBS risk for either the 8- to 21-day (odds ratio [OR], 1.85; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.99-3.44) or 1- to 42-day (OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.78-2.18) risk windows. The findings from the end-of-season analyses were fully consistent with the early-season analyses for both the 8- to 21-day (OR, 1.64; 95% CI, 0.92-2.91) and 1- to 42-day (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 0.70-1.79) risk windows. The VSD's chart-confirmed analysis, involving 646 996 IIV3-HD vaccinations, with 1 case each in the risk and control windows, yielded a relative risk of 1.00 (95% CI, 0.06-15.99). CONCLUSIONS: The Medicare analyses did not exclude an association between IIV3-HD and GBS, but it determined that, if such a risk existed, it was similar in magnitude to prior seasons. Chart-confirmed VSD results did not confirm an increased risk of GBS.

Recombinant Zoster Vaccine (Shingrix): Real-World Effectiveness in the First 2 Years Post-Licensure.

BACKGROUND: Shingrix (recombinant zoster vaccine) was licensed to prevent herpes zoster, dispensed as 2 doses given 2-6 months apart among adults aged ≥50 years. Clinical trials yielded efficacy of >90% for confirmed herpes zoster, but post-market performance has not been evaluated. Efficacy of a single dose and a delayed second dose and efficacy among persons with autoimmune or immunosuppressive conditions have not been studied. We aimed to assess post-market vaccine effectiveness of Shingrix. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study among Medicare Part D community-dwelling beneficiaries aged >65 years. Herpes zoster was identified using a medical office visit diagnosis with treatment, and postherpetic neuralgia was identified using a validated algorithm. We used inverse probability of treatment weighting to improve cohort balance and marginal structural models to estimate hazard ratios. RESULTS: We found a vaccine effectiveness of 70.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 68.6-71.5) and 56.9% (95% CI, 55.0-58.8) for 2 and 1 doses, respectively. The 2-dose vaccine effectiveness was not significantly lower for beneficiaries aged >80 years, for second doses received at ≥180 days, or for individuals with autoimmune conditions. The vaccine was also effective among individuals with immunosuppressive conditions. Two-dose vaccine effectiveness against postherpetic neuralgia was 76.0% (95% CI, 68.4-81.8). CONCLUSIONS: This large real-world observational study of the effectiveness of Shingrix demonstrates the benefit of completing the 2-dose regimen. Second doses administered beyond the recommended 6 months did not impair effectiveness. Our effectiveness estimates were lower than the clinical trials estimates, likely due to differences in outcome specificity.

Comparative Effectiveness of Influenza Vaccines Among US Medicare Beneficiaries Ages 65 Years and Older During the 2019-2020 Season.

BACKGROUND: Approximately 50 000 influenza-associated deaths occur annually in the United States, overwhelmingly among individuals aged ≥65 years. Although vaccination is the primary prevention tool, investigations have shown low vaccine effectiveness (VE) in recent years, particularly among the elderly. We analyzed the relative VE (RVE) of all influenza vaccines among Medicare beneficiaries aged ≥65 years to prevent influenza hospital encounters during the 2019-2020 season. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study using Poisson regression and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). Exposures included egg-based high-dose trivalent (HD-IIV3), egg-based adjuvanted trivalent (aIIV3), egg-based standard dose (SD) quadrivalent (IIV4), cell-based SD quadrivalent (cIIV4), and recombinant quadrivalent (RIV4) influenza vaccines. RESULTS: We studied 12.7 million vaccinated beneficiaries. Following IPTW, cohorts were well balanced for all covariates and health-seeking behavior indicators. In the adjusted analysis, RIV4 (RVE, 13.3%; 95% CI, 7.4-18.9%), aIIV3 (RVE, 8.2%; 95% CI, 4.2-12.0%), and HD-IIV3 (RVE, 6.8%; 95% CI, 3.3-10.1%) were significantly more effective in preventing hospital encounters than the reference egg-based SD IIV4, while cIIV4 was not significantly more effective than IIV4 (RVE, 2.8%; 95% CI, -2.8%, 8.2%). Our results were consistent across all analyses. CONCLUSIONS: In this influenza B-Victoria and A(H1N1)-dominated season, RIV4 was moderately more effective than other vaccines, while HD-IIV3 and aIIV3 were more effective than the IIV4 vaccines, highlighting the contributions of antigen amount and adjuvant use to VE. Egg adaptation likely did not substantially affect our RVE evaluation. Our findings, specific to the 2019-2020 season, should be evaluated in other studies using virological case confirmation.

Risk of Covid-19-Related Hospitalization and More Severe Outcomes in Medicare Beneficiaries Treated with Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone System Inhibitors for Hypertension.

BACKGROUND: There are theoretical concerns that angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) could increase the risk of severe Covid-19. OBJECTIVE: To determine if ACEIs and ARBs are associated with an increased risk of Covid-19 hospitalization overall, or hospitalization involving intensive care unit (ICU) admission, invasive mechanical ventilation, or death. DESIGN: Observational case-control study. PARTICIPANTS: Medicare beneficiaries aged ≥ 66 years with hypertension, treated with ACEIs, ARBs, calcium channel blockers (CCBs), or thiazide diuretics. MAIN MEASURES: Adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the outcomes of Covid-19 hospitalization, or hospitalization involving ICU admission, invasive mechanical ventilation, or death. RESULTS: A total of 35,300 cases of hospitalized Covid-19 were matched to 228,228 controls on calendar date and neighborhood of residence. The median age of cases was 79 years, 57.4% were female, and the median duration of hospitalization was 8 days (interquartile range 5-12). ACEIs and ARBs were associated with a slight reduction in Covid-19 hospitalization risk compared with treatment with other first-line antihypertensives (OR for ACEIs 0.95, 95% CI 0.92-0.98; OR for ARBs 0.94, 95% CI 0.90-0.97). Similar results were obtained for hospitalizations involving ICU admission, invasive mechanical ventilation, or death. There were no meaningful differences in risk for ACEIs compared with ARBs. In an analysis restricted to monotherapy with a first-line agent, CCBs were associated with a small increased risk of Covid-19 hospitalization compared with ACEIs (OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.04-1.14), ARBs (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.05-1.15), or thiazide diuretics (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.03-1.19). CONCLUSIONS: ACEIs and ARBs were not associated with an increased risk of Covid-19 hospitalization or with hospitalization involving ICU admission, invasive mechanical ventilation, or death. The finding of a small increased risk of Covid-19 hospitalization with CCBs was unexpected and could be due to residual confounding.

Relative Effectiveness of Influenza Vaccines Among the United States Elderly, 2018-2019.

BACKGROUND: Studies among individuals ages ≥65 years have found a moderately higher relative vaccine effectiveness (RVE) for the high-dose (HD) influenza vaccine compared with standard-dose (SD) products for most seasons. Studies during the A(H3N2)-dominated 2017-2018 season showed slightly higher RVE for the cell-cultured vaccine compared with SD egg-based vaccines. We investigated the RVE of influenza vaccines among Medicare beneficiaries ages ≥65 years during the 2018-2019 season. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study using inverse probability of treatment weighting and Poisson regression to evaluate RVE in preventing influenza hospital encounters. RESULTS: Among 12 777 214 beneficiaries, the egg-based adjuvanted (RVE, 7.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.9%-11.4%) and HD (RVE, 4.9%; 95% CI, 1.7%-8.1%) vaccines were marginally more effective than the egg-based quadrivalent vaccines. The cell-cultured quadrivalent vaccine was not significantly more effective than the egg-based quadrivalent vaccine (RVE, 2.5%; 95% CI, -2.4% to 7.3%). CONCLUSIONS: We did not find major effectiveness differences between licensed vaccines used among the elderly during the 2018-2019 season. Consistent with prior research, we found that the egg-based adjuvanted and HD vaccines were slightly more effective than the egg-based quadrivalent vaccines.

Neutralizing and Neuraminidase Antibodies Correlate With Protection Against Influenza During a Late Season A/H3N2 Outbreak Among Unvaccinated Military Recruits.

BACKGROUND: Antibodies that inhibit hemagglutination have long been considered a correlate of protection against influenza, but these antibodies are only a subset of potentially protective antibodies. Neutralizing and neuraminidase antibodies may also contribute to protection, but data on their associations with protection are limited. METHODS: We measured preoutbreak hemagglutinin pseudovirus neutralization (PVN) and neuraminidase inhibition (NAI) antibody titers in unvaccinated military recruits who experienced an H3N2 influenza outbreak during training. We conducted a case-control study to investigate the association between titers and protection against influenza illness or H3N2-associated pneumonia using logistic regression. RESULTS: With every 2-fold increase in PVN titer, the odds of medically attended polymerase chain reaction-confirmed H3N2 infection (H3N2+) decreased by 41% (odds ratio [OR], 0.59; 95% confidence interval [CI], .45 to .77; P < .001). Among those who were H3N2+, the odds for pneumonia decreased by 52% (OR, 0.48; CI, .25 to .91; P = .0249). With every 2-fold increase in NAI titer, the odds of medically attended H3N2 infection decreased by 32% (OR, 0.68; 95% CI, .53 to .87; P = .0028), but there was no association between NAI titers and H3N2-associated pneumonia. There was also no synergistic effect of PVN and NAI antibodies. CONCLUSIONS: PVN and NAI titers were independently associated with reduced risk of influenza illness. NAI titers associated with protection had greater breadth of reactivity to drifted strains than PVN titers. These findings show that PVN and NAI titers are valuable biomarkers for assessing the odds of influenza infection.

Comparing clotting factors attributes across different methods of preference elicitation in haemophilia patients.

INTRODUCTION: Emerging, systematic approaches for capturing patient input, such as preference elicitation, can provide valuable information for the benefit-risk assessment of medical products for treating bleeding disorders, such as haemophilia. AIM: This study aims to identify existing and develop new methods to capture, rank and summarize preference scores for clotting factor therapies. METHODS: Haemophilia patient preference data were compiled from studies identified through literature review and publicly available US FDA patient-focused drug development meeting documents. Text mining was performed to identify major themes across studies. A standardized preference score was estimated and aggregated. RESULTS: Ten preference studies that employed qualitative (n = 3), and quantitative methods (n = 7) met the inclusion criteria. Text mining of qualitative and quantitative studies revealed similar themes as the standardized preference attribute importance. We found that seven quantitative studies employed discrete choice experiments (DCE)/conjoint analysis (CA) and examined a range of 5-12 attributes. For DCE/CA studies published prior to 2014 (n = 4), safety attributes (inhibitor and viral safety) were among the most important attributes, accounting for ~46% of the total utility measured. DCE/CA studies published after 2014 (n = 3) focused on frequency of infusion and reduction of bleeding risk, accounting for ~67% of the total utility. Interestingly, two studies that used different preference elicitation approaches (DCE and a monadic conjoint approach) both ranked infusion frequency as the most important attribute. CONCLUSIONS: Although there are few published patient preference studies for haemophilia, the results of this study can be viewed in the larger context of enhancing scientific methods of incorporating patient input in medical product development.

Assessment of risk of variant creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) from use of bovine heparin.

PURPOSE: In the late1990s, reacting to the outbreak of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the United Kingdom that caused a new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) in humans, manufacturers withdrew bovine heparin from the market in the United States. There have been growing concerns about the adequate supply and safety of porcine heparin. Since the BSE epidemic has been declining markedly, the US Food and Drug Administration reevaluates the vCJD risk via use of bovine heparin. METHODS: We developed a computational model to estimate the vCJD risk to patients receiving bovine heparin injections. The model incorporated information including BSE prevalence, infectivity levels in the intestines, manufacturing batch size, yield of heparin, reduction in infectivity by manufacturing process, and the dose-response relationship. RESULTS: The model estimates a median risk of vCJD infection from a single intravenous dose (10 000 USP units) of heparin made from US-sourced bovine intestines to be 6.9 × 10-9 (2.5-97.fifth percentile: 1.5 × 10-9 -4.3 × 10-8 ), a risk of 1 in 145 million, and 4.6 × 10-8 (2.5-97.fifth percentile: 1.1 × 10-8 -2.6 × 10-7 ), a risk of 1 in 22 million for Canada-sourced products. The model estimates a median risk of 1.4 × 10-7 (2.5-97.fifth percentile: 2.9 × 10-8 -9.3 × 10-7 ) and 9.6 × 10-7 (2.5-97.fifth percentile: 2.1 × 10-7 -5.6 × 10-6 ) for a typical treatment for venous thromboembolism (infusion of 2-4 doses daily per week) using US-sourced and Canada-sourced bovine heparin, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The model estimates the vCJD risk from use of heparin when appropriately manufactured from US or Canadian cattle is likely small. The model and conclusions should not be applied to other medicinal products manufactured using bovine-derived materials.

Effect of Age on Relative Effectiveness of High-Dose Versus Standard-Dose Influenza Vaccines Among US Medicare Beneficiaries Aged ≥65 Years.

BACKGROUND: Studies have found that the high-dose influenza vaccine has a higher relative vaccine effectiveness (RVE) versus standard-dose vaccines in some seasons. We evaluated the effect of age on the RVE of high-dose versus standard-dose influenza vaccines among Medicare beneficiaries. METHODS: A 6-season retrospective cohort study from 2012 to 2018 among Medicare beneficiaries aged ≥65 years was performed. Poisson regression was used to evaluate the effect of age on the RVE of high-dose versus standard-dose influenza vaccines in preventing influenza-related hospitalizations. RESULTS: The study included >19 million vaccinated beneficiaries in a community pharmacy setting. The Poisson models indicated a slightly increasing trend in RVE with age in all seasons. The high-dose vaccine was more effective than standard-dose vaccines in preventing influenza-related hospital encounters (ie, influenza-related inpatient stays and emergency department visits) in the 2012-2013 (RVE, 23.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 17.6%-28.3%), 2013-2014 (RVE, 15.3%; 95% CI, 7.8%-22.3%), 2014-2015 (RVE, 8.9%; 95% CI, 5.6%-12.1%), and 2016-2017 (RVE, 12.6%; 95% CI, 6.3%-18.4%) seasons and was at least as effective in all other seasons. We also found that the high-dose vaccine was consistently more effective than standard-dose vaccines across all seasons for people aged ≥85 years. Similar trends were observed for influenza-related inpatient stays. CONCLUSIONS: The RVE of high-dose versus standard-dose influenza vaccines increases with age.

Relative Effectiveness of Cell-Cultured and Egg-Based Influenza Vaccines Among Elderly Persons in the United States, 2017-2018.

BACKGROUND: The low influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) observed during the A(H3N2)-dominated 2017-2018 season may be due to vaccine virus adaptation to growth in eggs. We compared the effectiveness of cell-cultured and egg-based vaccines among Medicare beneficiaries. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study on Medicare beneficiaries aged ≥65 years who received an influenza vaccine (cell-cultured, egg-based quadrivalent; egg-based high-dose, adjuvanted, or standard-dose trivalent) during the 2017-2018 season. We used Poisson regression to evaluate relative VE (RVE) in preventing influenza-related hospital encounters. RESULTS: Of >13 million beneficiaries, RVE for cell-cultured vaccines relative to egg-based quadrivalent vaccines was 10% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7%-13%). In a midseason interim analysis, this estimate was 16.5% (95% CI, 10.3%-22.2%). In a 5-way comparison, cell-cultured (RVE, 11%; 95% CI, 8%-14%) and egg-based high-dose (RVE, 9%; 95% CI, 7%-11%) vaccines were more effective than egg-based quadrivalent vaccines. CONCLUSIONS: The modest VE difference between cell-cultured and egg-based vaccines only partially explains the low overall VE reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, suggesting that egg adaptation was not the main contributor to the low VE found among individuals aged ≥65 years. The midseason interim analysis we performed demonstrates that our methods can be used to evaluate VE actively during the influenza season.

Predictive model for Zika virus RNA minipool nucleic acid testing in outbreak scenarios.

BACKGROUND: Zika virus (ZIKV), a mosquito-borne flavivirus, causes asymptomatic infections in blood donors and can be transmitted by transfusion. During the 2016 US outbreak, universal individual-donation nucleic acid testing (ID-NAT) was used to screen the blood supply for ZIKV. Testing pooled samples from multiple donations with minipool (MP)-NAT is less sensitive than ID-NAT, which raised questions about its utility in ZIKV outbreaks. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: A mathematical model and computer simulation determined the risk of missing ID-NAT-reactive and immunoglobulin (Ig) M-negative donations in a ZIKV outbreak if MP-NAT is used initially instead of ID-NAT. The model calculated the time required for ZIKV RNA to replicate to a concentration detectable by testing donations individually or in pools of 6 (MP6) or 16 (MP16). A computer simulation then randomly selected infection times to determine the probability of detection by the candidate tests. RESULTS: The probability of detecting the first ID-NAT-reactive unit in an outbreak is 92% (2.5th-97.5th percentile, 79%-99%) by MP6 and 85% (2.5th-97.5th percentile, 67%-99%) by MP16. When one donation is detected by MP-NAT, the model predicts that the chance of having missed one or more ID-NAT-reactive donations is 8% to 15%. The probability of missing a unit by MP-NAT is constant over the course of the outbreak (8% by MP6, 15% by MP16). CONCLUSION: The model predicts that the probability that a candidate MP-NAT will detect the first ID-NAT-reactive unit in a ZIKV outbreak is 85% to 92% and remains constant over time.

Clinical Pharmacology Review of Plasma-derived and Recombinant Protein Products: CBER Experience and Perspectives on Model-Informed Drug Development.

INTRODUCTION: Clinical pharmacology studies are one of the major types of regulatory data submitted for review of therapeutic proteins regulated by the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER). AIM: The primary objective of the current study is to provide an overview of the role of clinical pharmacology including pharmacokinetics (PK), pharmacodynamics (PD) and exposure-response analysis at CBER. Furthermore, we aim to provide a baseline estimate for the use of quantitative clinical pharmacology studies prior to implementation of FDA's model-informed drug development (MIDD) pilot programme. METHODS: We survey original Biologics License Applications (BLAs) for plasma-derived and related recombinant therapeutic protein products approved by CBER/FDA (2008-2017). RESULTS: There were 37 original BLAs that met our inclusion criteria, and 34 of these products (92%) contained human PK data as part of the biological licensing. The products were broadly classified as coagulation factors (54%), IgG and related proteins (24%), and other therapeutic proteins (22%). Coagulation factor VIII and IX products constitute 32% of the BLAs and indicated for treatment of haemophilia A and B, respectively. Twelve products (35%) used model-based approaches (population PK/PD and exposure-response). Over the past 5 years (2013 to 2017), there is a trend for increased application of MIDD approaches as compared to the previous cohort years (2008 to 2012). CONCLUSION: In conclusion, clinical pharmacology has played a major role in regulatory review of plasma-derived products, and we expect that the application of quantitative methods will further evolve for these products under the FDA MIDD programme.