Validation of genomic predictions for a lifetime merit selection index for the US dairy industry.

Selection indices are a critical component of many breeding programs. A common purpose of a selection index is to predict an animal's genetic potential for total economic merit. The objective of this study was to evaluate retrospectively whether a specific selection index comprising genomically-enhanced predicted transmitting abilities had the ability to predict observed lifetime profit in US Holstein animals. The selection index evaluated was dairy wellness profit (DWP$). In total, 2,185 animals were included in this study. Index values were used to rank and assign animals to quartiles (genetic groups: worst 25%, 26-50%, 51-75%, and best 25%). Generalized linear mixed effects models were applied to estimate the associations between index quartile and defined economic outcomes. Similar analyses were conducted to estimate associations between index quartile and observed phenotype to characterize the extent to which profitability outcomes were driven by economically relevant production and health traits. Differences in lifetime profit and annuity value between the best and worst genetic groups for DWP$ were $811 (±297) and $232 (±88), respectively. Significant differences were also observed between top and bottom quartiles for milk production (8,077 kg), fat production (336 kg), protein production (264 kg), live calves (0.5), time spent in the lactating herd (6.6 mo), and cow mortality (8.4%). Additionally, differences in disease incidence were significant between the best and worst DWP$ quartiles for metritis (5.2%), mastitis (14.9%), and lameness (15.9%). The observed results of this study demonstrated the ability of DWP$ predictions to predict lifetime profitability of Holstein animals and its potential utility as a tool to guide selection and breeding programs. Improving DWP$ through genetic selection, when combined with good management practices, provides an opportunity for dairy producers to improve overall herd profitability.

Use of decision analysis to evaluate the delivery method of veterinary health care on dairy farms as measured by correction of left displaced abomasum.

OBJECTIVE: To use decision and sensitivity analysis to examine the delivery of health care on US dairy farms as measured by correction of left displaced abomasum (LDA). SAMPLE POPULATION: 5 journal articles evaluating outcomes from veterinarian- or herd personnel-delivered correction of LDA via laparotomy or a roll-and-toggle procedure. DESIGN: Economic analysis. PROCEDURES: A decision tree was constructed on the basis of published outcome data for correction of LDAs performed by veterinarians and herd personnel. Sensitivity of the model to changing input assumptions was evaluated via an indifference curve and tornado graph. RESULTS: Decision tree analysis revealed that correction of an LDA provided by herd personnel had an expected economic advantage of $76, compared with correction provided by a veterinarian. Sensitivity of this analysis to variations in inputs indicated that changes of 2 input levels would shift the advantage to veterinarian-provided correction: a reduction (from 0.74 to 0.62) in the probability of success for correction provided by herd personnel or an increase (from 0.78 to 0.87) in the probability of success for correction provided by a veterinarian. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: In this model, LDA correction by herd personnel had a significant economic advantage, compared with veterinarian-provided correction. Continued absorption of traditional veterinary tasks by unlicensed herd personnel may threaten the veterinarian-client-patient relationship (VCPR), which could have profound economic and regulatory impacts. Food animal veterinarians need to evaluate their business model to ensure they continue to provide relevant, sustainable services to their clients within the context of a valid VCPR.

Nitrogen- vs. phosphorus-based dairy manure applications to field crops: nitrate and phosphorus leaching and soil phosphorus accumulation.

Management of animal manures to provide nutrients for crop growth has generally been based on crop N needs. However, because manures have a lower N/P ratio than most harvested crops, N-based manure management often oversupplies the crop-soil system with P, which can be lost into the environment and contribute to eutrophication of water bodies. We examined the effects of N- vs. P-based manure applications on N and P uptake by alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.), corn (Zea mays L.) for silage, and orchardgrass (Dactylis glomerata L.), leaching below the root zone, and accumulation of P in soil. Treatments included N- and P-based manure rates, with no nutrient input controls and inorganically fertilized plots for comparison. Nitrate concentrations in leachate from inorganic fertilizer or manure treatments averaged 14 mg NO(3)-N L(-1), and did not differ by nutrient treatment. Average annual total P losses in leachate did not exceed 1 kg ha(-1). In the top 5 cm of soil in plots receiving the N-based manure treatment, soil test P increased by 47%, from 85 to 125 mg kg(-1). Nitrogen- and P-based manure applications did not differ in ability to supply nutrients for crop growth, or in losses of nitrate and total P in leachate. However, the N-based manure led to significantly greater accumulation of soil test P in the surface 5 cm of soil. Surface soil P accumulation has implications for increased risk of off-field P movement.

A simulation of Johne's disease control.

A dynamic and stochastic simulation model (the "JohneSSim model") was developed to evaluate the economic and epidemiological effects of different strategies for control of paratuberculosis in dairy herds. Animals occupy one of the six defined infection states; the spread of Johne's disease is modeled with five infection routes. Many different dairy farm situations can be simulated. Control strategies that can be simulated are: (1) test-and-cull; (2) calf hygiene management; (3) vaccination and (4) grouping of animals. Losses are caused by: (1) reduced milk production; (2) diagnosis and treatment costs; (3) lower slaughter value of cows and (4) sub-optimal culling. The benefits were calculated as reduction in the losses caused by Johne's disease; the costs of each strategy were calculated on the basis of actual costs of each item; and net present value (NPV) was calculated as benefits minus costs. Herd and prevalence data from The Netherlands and Pennsylvania, USA were used. In both situations, a low true mean prevalence within 20 years could be reached only when all calf management tools were applied. The Dutch control program (PPN) was on average economically attractive (with or without labor costs, the average NPV was Euro 1183 and 12,397, respectively). In Pennsylvania, contract heifer rearing and improved calf hygiene reduced the prevalence effectively and had large economic benefits (US$ 43,917 for 20-year period) if the calves were sent to the heifer facility while very young. Validation with data from 21 infected Dutch dairy farms (as well as face-validation: comparison of the results of the JohneSSim model with experiences of Johne's experts) supported the basic assumptions in the model.

Economic consequences of control programs for paratuberculosis in midsize dairy farms in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the epidemiologic efficacy and economic efficiency of current and potential future control programs for paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) on midsize dairy herds in the United States. DESIGN: Stochastic dynamic computer simulation model. SAMPLE POPULATION: Data on prices and other input variables collected from various sources were used to represent a population of midsize US dairy herds infected with paratuberculosis. PROCEDURE: The simulation model was modified to reflect management and production characteristics of midsize dairy herds in the United States. The model was validated by use of field data and expert opinion. Various control strategies then were simulated and compared on an epidemiologic basis and on the basis of economic efficiency. RESULTS: Test-and-cull strategies and vaccination against paratuberculosis were not able to decrease the mean prevalence of disease in the United States. Typically, only vaccination was economically attractive. Improved management strategies decreased the prevalence of paratuberculosis considerably and had high economic benefits. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Analysis of results of this study suggests that test-and-cull strategies alone do not reduce the prevalence of paratuberculosis in cattle and are costly for producers to pursue. Vaccination did not reduce the prevalence but was economically attractive. Finally, improved calf-hygiene strategies were found to be critically important in every paratuberculosis control program and most were economically attractive programs for midsize US dairy farms with the disease.