The use of geostatistics in the study of floral phenology of Vulpia geniculata (L.) link.

Traditionally phenology studies have been focused on changes through time, but there exist many instances in ecological research where it is necessary to interpolate among spatially stratified samples. The combined use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Geostatistics can be an essential tool for spatial analysis in phenological studies. Geostatistics are a family of statistics that describe correlations through space/time and they can be used for both quantifying spatial correlation and interpolating unsampled points. In the present work, estimations based upon Geostatistics and GIS mapping have enabled the construction of spatial models that reflect phenological evolution of Vulpia geniculata (L.) Link throughout the study area during sampling season. Ten sampling points, scattered throughout the city and low mountains in the "Sierra de Córdoba" were chosen to carry out the weekly phenological monitoring during flowering season. The phenological data were interpolated by applying the traditional geostatitical method of Kriging, which was used to elaborate weekly estimations of V. geniculata phenology in unsampled areas. Finally, the application of Geostatistics and GIS to create phenological maps could be an essential complement in pollen aerobiological studies, given the increased interest in obtaining automatic aerobiological forecasting maps.

Analysis of the Orchidaceae Diversity in the Pululahua Reserve, Ecuador: Opportunities and Constraints as Regards the Biodiversity Conservation of the Cloud Mountain Forest.

The Pululahua Geobotanical Reserve is a protected natural area in the cloud mountain forest of Ecuador, so rich in orchid species despite being a volcanic area still under threat of volcanic activity. A comparative biodiversity study of orchids was carried out in two different sectors, Chaupisacha (CH) and La Reventazón (LR). Data were collected in 1 ha plots in each sector, in which all the orchids found were counted and two individuals of each species were retained. Immature individuals were conserved in a plant nursery until flowering. In CH, there were 922 individuals grouped into 24 genera and 55 species, while LR had 9196 individuals grouped into 26 genera and 46 species; only 14 species were found in both sectors. Different density and diversity indexes were calculated. The density (ind./100 m2) of CH was 0.96, while that of LR was 185.92. Simpson's diversity (1 - λ) attained CH 0.903 ± 0.01 and LR 0.85 ± 0.01. The orchid diversity measured by the Shannon-Wiener diversity index (H') was 1.29 for CH, differing significantly from that of LR (H' 1.02). The medium equity (Jaccard's J') found was 0.61 in CH and 90.78 in LR. Limitations as regards the natural dispersion of orchids seemed to favor endemism. Some species, such as Dracula felix and Restrepia guttulate, are threatened with disappearance from the wild or are vulnerable, as is the case for Epidendrum polyanthogastrium. A lack of information on the phenology and anthropic impacts in the area limit the conservation of species, signifying that new protected figures and seed banks are necessary, especially in CH, owing to its high diversity of orchids.

Environmental drivers of the seasonal exposure to airborne Alternaria spores in Spain.

Alternaria conidia have high allergenic potential and they can trigger important respiratory diseases. Due to that and to their extensive detection period, airborne Alternaria spores are considered as a relevant airborne allergenic particle. Several studies have been developed in order to predict the human exposure to this aeroallergen and to prevent their negative effects on sensitive population. These studies revealed that some sampling locations usually have just one single Alternaria spore season while other locations generally have two seasons within the same year. However, the reasons of these two different seasonal patterns remain unclear. To understand them better, the present study was carried out in order to determine if there are any weather conditions that influence these different behaviours at different sampling locations. With this purpose, the airborne Alternaria spore concentrations of 18 sampling locations in a wide range of latitudinal, altitudinal and climate ranges of Spain were studied. The aerobiological samples were obtained by means of Hirst-Type volumetric pollen traps, and the seasonality of the airborne Alternaria spores were analysed. The optimal weather conditions for spore production were studied, and the main weather factor affecting Alternaria spore seasonality were analysed by means of random forests and regression trees. The results showed that the temperature was the most relevant variable for the Alternaria spore dispersion and it influenced both the spore integrals and their seasonality. The water availability was also a very significant variable. Warmer sampling locations generally have a longer period of Alternaria spore detection. However, the spore production declines during the summer when the temperatures are extremely warm, what splits the favourable period for Alternaria spore production and dispersion into two separate ones, detected as two Alternaria spore seasons within the same year.

Synoptic and meteorological characterisation of olive pollen transport in Córdoba province (south-western Spain).

The main goal of the present study was to provide a detailed analysis of olive pollen transport dynamics in the province of Córdoba (south-western Spain) by applying back-trajectory analysis. Pollen data from 2006 and 2007 were analysed at four monitoring sites: Córdoba city in the centre of the province, Baena and Priego de Córdoba located in the south, and El Cabril reserve (Hornachuelos Natural Park) in the north. Particular attention was paid to nine episodes of high pollen counts. Synoptic surface maps were used, and kinematic back-trajectories (3D) were computed using the hybrid single particle Lagrangian integrated trajectory model (HYSPLIT) at 500 m above ground level, run with a time-step of 6 h over a period of 36 h. Findings were analysed in conjunction with daily and bi-hourly airborne pollen data, field phenological data and hourly surface meteorological data recorded at nearby stations: temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, wind direction and wind speed. The results identified two pollen source areas over the Córdoba province, the largest one located in the south, affecting Baena, Priego de Córdoba and Córdoba city, and one smaller located in the west, which determines mainly the pollen cycle over the north of the province, El Cabril. In addition, two air mass circulations were found, one coming from the south and crossing the main olive pollen sources very close to the surface and being frequently associated with higher pollen counts, and the other coming from the west and, in the episodes investigated, influencing mainly the north of the province.

Platanus pollen season in Andalusia (southern Spain): trends and modeling.

Platanus is a major cause of pollen allergy in many Spanish cities. The present paper reports an analysis of Platanus pollen season throughout the Andalusia region (southern Spain), which has among the highest pollen counts and the highest incidence of Platanus-related allergies in Europe. The main aim was to analyze pollen season trends from 1992 to 2010 in Andalusia; models were also constructed to forecast the start of the season. Daily pollen counts were recorded using Hirst-type volumetric spore-traps. Pollen season start-dates were very similar at all sites, usually occurring in March. The pollen season was delayed over the study period. The Pollen-season duration and Pollen index generally increased throughout the study period. The starting date for temperature accumulation was around the 10th February, although the threshold temperatures varied by site. The regional model for Andalusia failed to provide sufficiently accurate results compared with sub-regional or local models. For modeling purposes, three sub-regions are recommended: Inland, East Coast and West Coast.

Olive flowering trends in a large Mediterranean area (Italy and Spain).

The aim of this study was to investigate the main climatic and biological trends related to olive flowering in central-southern Italy compared to those in Andalusia, Spain. Results since 1982 were compared for the two long-series monitoring areas of Cordoba and Perugia, and since 1992-1999 for the short-series areas. The relationship between climatic trends and the biological response of the olive, a widespread culture in the Mediterranean basin, were investigated. An aerobiological method involving capturing pollen released into the atmosphere was utilised as a bioindicator of flowering phenology. The study results confirm the strong relationship between flowering periods and spring temperature trends for the olive. Temperature during March, April and May was the parameter most related to flowering date in the study areas, particularly in Italy. In some cases we found a significant correlation between flowering and past autumn temperatures, probably due to their effect on floral bud dormancy induction, but this phenomenon appeared to be of minor importance in the studied areas. The phenological trend results show the continuous advance of flowering dates to the late 1990s, followed by a relatively stationary time series related to a short-term temperature fluctuation in the Mediterranean area. This latter period probably represents a mesoscale event forced by a macroscale event-the North Atlantic Oscillation. The results reveal that the trend towards increased temperatures, and the consequent flowering advance of some species, indicated some years ago is nowadays not as clear as was expected and should be confirmed over the next few years in the Mediterranean areas under investigation.

Airborne allergenic pollen in natural areas: Hornachuelos Natural Park, Cordoba, southern Spain.

The present study shows the results of monitoring the atmospheric pollen in the atmosphere of an area of natural vegetation, the Hornachuelos Natural Park, Cordoba, southern Spain, during a six years (1998-2003). Special attention was paid in the seasonal and intra-diurnal characteristics of airborne allergenic pollen. During this period, 31 pollen types were described, some of them rare in aerobiological analysis. High concentrations of allergenic pollen from entomophilous species and from areas at a long distance were found. Significant differences between pollen spectrum and pollen concentration of the natural study area and the surrounding cities were detected. Intra-diurnal pattern from trees surrounding the trap presented a clear peak at midday/afternoon. Pollen from taxa comprising many species and from species at far locations showed a smoother intra-diurnal pattern. The correlation with meteorological parameters was positive with maximum and mean temperatures, and negative with humidity and rainfall.

Concentric Ring Method for generating pollen maps. Quercus as case study.

Mapping pollen concentrations is of great interest to study the health impact and ecological implications or for forestry or agronomical purposes. A deep knowledge about factors affecting airborne pollen is essential for predicting and understanding its dynamics. The present work sought to predict annual Quercus pollen over the Castilla and León region (Central and Northern Spain). Also to understand the relationship between airborne pollen and landscape. Records of Quercus and Quercus pyrenaica pollen types were collected at 13 monitoring sites over a period of 8years. They were analyzed together with land use data applying the Concentric Ring Method (CRM), a technique that we developed to study the relationship between airborne particle concentrations and emission sources in the region. The maximum correlation between the Quercus pollen and forms of vegetation was determined by shrubland and "dehesa" areas. For the specific Qi pyrenaica model (Q. pyrenaica pollen and Q. pyrenaica forest distribution), the maximum influence of emission sources on airborne pollen was observed at 14km from the pollen trap location with some positive correlations up to a distance of 43km. Apart from meteorological behavior, the local features of the region can explain pollen dispersion patterns. The method that we develop here proved to be a powerful tool for multi-source pollen mapping based on land use.

Quercus pollen season dynamics in the Iberian peninsula: response to meteorological parameters and possible consequences of climate change.

The main characteristics of the Quercus pollination season were studied in 14 different localities of the Iberian Peninsula from 1992-2004. Results show that Quercus flowering season has tended to start earlier in recent years, probably due to the increased temperatures in the pre-flowering period, detected at study sites over the second half of the 20th century. A Growing Degree Days forecasting model was used, together with future meteorological data forecast using the Regional Climate Model developed by the Hadley Meteorological Centre, in order to determine the expected advance in the start of Quercus pollination in future years. At each study site, airborne pollen curves presented a similar pattern in all study years, with different peaks over the season attributable in many cases to the presence of several species. High pollen concentrations were recorded, particularly at Mediterranean sites. This study also proposes forecasting models to predict both daily pollen values and annual pollen emission. All models were externally validated using data for 2001 and 2004, with acceptable results. Finally, the impact of the highly-likely climate change on Iberian Quercus pollen concentration values was studied by applying RCM meteorological data for different future years, 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2099. Results indicate that under a doubled CO(2) scenario at the end of the 21st century Quercus pollination season could start on average one month earlier and airborne pollen concentrations will increase by 50 % with respect to current levels, with higher values in Mediterranean inland areas.

Impact of land cover changes and climate on the main airborne pollen types in Southern Spain.

Airborne pollen concentrations strongly correlate with flowering intensity of wind-pollinated species growing at and around monitoring sites. The pollen spectrum, and the variations in its composition and concentrations, is influenced by climatic features and by available nutritional resources but it is also determined by land use and its changes. The first factor influence is well known on aerobiological researches but the impact of land cover changes has been scarcely studied until now. This paper reports on a study carried out in Southern Spain (Córdoba city) examining airborne pollen trends over a 15-year period and it explores the possible links both to changes in land use and to climate variations. The Seasonal-Trend Decomposition procedure based on Loess (STL) which decomposes long-term data series into smaller seasonal component patterns was applied. Trends were compared with recorded changes in land use at varying distances from the city in order to determine their possible influence on pollen-count variations. The influence of climate-related factors was determined by means of non-parametric correlation analysis. The STL method proved highly effective for extracting trend components from pollen time series, because their features vary widely and can change quickly in a short term. Results revealed mixed trends depending on the taxa and reflecting fluctuations in land cover and/or climate. A significant rising trend in Olea pollen counts was observed, attributable both to the increasing olive-growing area but also to changes in temperature and rainfall. Poaceae pollen concentrations also increased, due largely to an expansion of heterogeneous agricultural areas and to an increase in pollen season length positively influenced by rainfall and temperature. By contrast, the significant declining trend observed for pollen from ruderal taxa, such as Amaranthaceae, Rumex, Plantago and Urticaceae, may be linked to changes in urban planning strategies with a higher building pressure.

Bioclimatic requirements for olive flowering in two Mediterranean regions located at the same latitude (Andalucia, Spain and Sicily, Italy).

The Mediterranean Region is the major area devoted to olive tree crop, and therefore a study of olive flowering is of great interest for the European Community. On the other hand, olive pollen is one of the main causes of pollen allergy in the Mediterranean area. Olive flowering is affected by climatic factors such as temperature and photoperiod, which vary geographically in latitude and altitude. Temperature has been used to study those processes that lead to flowering in the olive tree. The aim of the present paper is firstly the comparison of the flowering full bloom dates in two Mediterranean areas, Sicily (Italy) and Cordoba (Spain), located in the same latitudinal band (37-38 degrees N) and to calculate the heat requirement until flowering by determination of different threshold temperatures and methods of heat accumulation. A delay of the full flowering dates in the Spanish compared with the Italian olive groves was observed. The most suitable threshold temperatures were carried out in a 7 degrees -15 degrees C range by considering the heat accumulation start on 1 January in each olive grove. In particular, some causes were indicated as responsible for the different threshold temperatures recorded in the 2 study areas: First, the different climatic conditions (continental and insular climate) secondly the different cultivars present in the olive groves.

Phenological changes in olive (Ola europaea L.) reproductive cycle in southern Spain due to climate change.

INTRODUCTION: Modifications of crop species phenology due to a changing environment are of interest because of their impact on fruit set and final harvest. Pre-flowering and flowering phenophases in olive groves at different sites of southern Spain were examined, in order to chart potential trends and determine major correlations with weather-related parameters, especially temperature and water availability. The high prevalence of olive pollen allergy in the Mediterranean population makes this study highly relevant. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Ten sites in Cordoba province (Spain) during a 17-year period (1996-2012). BBCH phenology scale. Meteorological data from 1960 were analyzed; data from 1996 included on modeling analysis. Linear Mixed Models (LMMs) were developed, combining phenological and meteorological data. RESULTS: Since 1960, local spring temperatures have increased 1.5ºC, the number of spring rainfall days has fallen 11 days, total rainfall has declined 150 mm. Despite phenological differences between sites, attributable to altitude, phenological development during the season followed a similar pattern. Flowering dates advanced 2 days, while inflorescence emergence was delayed 24 days. Trend slopes revealed differences, an earlier period (1996-2002) with a sharp flowering advance of 15 days, and a later period (2003-2012) characterized by a gradual advance and a high bud emergence delay of 22 days. CONCLUSIONS: LMMs was revealed as an appropriate technique for phenology behaviour analysis displaying both fixed and random interactions. Cultivars grown in the study province are adapted to climate with a synchronized response, although climate change is affecting theolive reproductive cycle in southern Spain; therefore, the timing of pollen release, with subsequent consequences on allergic population as phenological changes, could have impacts on flowering period and pollen production. Further investigation is required of the implications for crop production in Mediterranean ecosystems.

Disentangling the effects of feedback structure and climate on Poaceae annual airborne pollen fluctuations and the possible consequences of climate change.

Pollen allergies are the most common form of respiratory allergic disease in Europe. Most studies have emphasized the role of environmental processes, as the drivers of airborne pollen fluctuations, implicitly considering pollen production as a random walk. This work shows that internal self-regulating processes of the plants (negative feedback) should be included in pollen dynamic systems in order to give a better explanation of the observed pollen temporal patterns. This article proposes a novel methodological approach based on dynamic systems to investigate the interaction between feedback structure of plant populations and climate in shaping long-term airborne Poaceae pollen fluctuations and to quantify the effects of climate change on future airborne pollen concentrations. Long-term historical airborne Poaceae pollen data (30 years) from Cordoba city (Southern Spain) were analyzed. A set of models, combining feedback structure, temperature and actual evapotranspiration effects on airborne Poaceae pollen were built and compared, using a model selection approach. Our results highlight the importance of first-order negative feedback and mean annual maximum temperature in driving airborne Poaceae pollen dynamics. The best model was used to predict the effects of climate change under two standardized scenarios representing contrasting temporal patterns of economic development and CO2 emissions. Our results predict an increase in pollen levels in southern Spain by 2070 ranging from 28.5% to 44.3%. The findings from this study provide a greater understanding of airborne pollen dynamics and how climate change might impact the future evolution of airborne Poaceae pollen concentrations and thus the future evolution of related pollen allergies.

A model to account for variations in holm-oak (Quercus ilex subsp. ballota) acorn production in southern Spain.

One of the characteristics of holm-oak acorn production is its high variability among individuals and years. To examine the main causes of this fact, a study was conducted from 1998-2010 in a natural area of holm-oak in southern Spain, where floral phenology, fruit production, fruit size, airborne pollen emission and meteorology factors were analyzed with the ultimate aim of developing a model for forecasting holm-oak yield. Pollen emission during flowering season was the main factor determining the final acorn harvest, but also some meteorological variables played an important role in explaining acorn crop variations, especially humidity and temperature during the months of April and September. The reliability of the proposed model was externally validated using data not included in its construction; validation yielded acceptable results, with a minimum error of estimation. Our results appear to be very useful for planning cropping and pig feeding strategies. Further research could extend the use of airborne pollen counts in forest studies relating to anemophilous species, in order to optimize agricultural policies.

The use of aerobiological data on agronomical studies.

Pollination is only one of the many events comprising the plant development cycle; however, it is extremely important for yield where seed is required. Although successful fertilization depends on a number of environmental and endogenous factors, including climate and plant nutritional status, a sufficient quantity of pollen must reach the receptive stigma in order to enhance fertilization potential. Aerobiological research focuses on the airborne dispersal of biological particles, including pollen grains from anemophilous plants. Airborne pollen data are currently used for various purposes in agricultural research. One major use is as a source of advance information concerning variations in the final fruit harvest of wind-pollinated species. This application, first introduced in the field of plant pathology in the 1940s, was further developed in the 1970s in French studies of vineyard yield; more recently, it has been successfully tested both in crops and in non-crop forest species such as oak or birch. Nowadays, aerobiological research into the influence of pollen emission on final fruit production takes into account a number of other variables, including weather-related factors and phytopathological data; it also uses new, computerized statistical tools to obtain more precise information on agricultural yield and phytopathological risks.

Intradiurnal variations of allergenic tree pollen in the atmosphere of Toledo (central Spain).

To study the impact of inhaling airborne pollen on health, it is important to know not only their average daily concentrations but also the intradiurnal behaviour of these biological particles. This study reports the bi-hourly distribution of the arboreal airborne pollen types more abundant in the atmosphere of Toledo (central Spain), many of them triggering important allergic processes in Toledo citizens and tourist visitors. Knowledge of bi-hourly pattern atmospheric variation pollen may help pollinosis patients to adopt preventive measures and plan their outdoor activities accordingly. Intradiurnal variation has been studied for the arboreal pollen types: Cupressaceae, Fraxinus, Olea, Platanus, Populus, Quercus and Ulmus, during the period 2005-2008. The main hourly pollen concentrations were observed during sunlight hours and the maximum pollen values obtained at midday and in the afternoon, except for pollen types Quercus and Platanus, whose maximum pollen concentrations were obtained during the night. The statistical analyses performed to compare pollen concentration and main hourly meteorological variables proved to be significant for most of the taxa. The results show a significant and positive effect of temperature, solar radiation and wind speed on the daily variability undergone by atmospheric pollen. Relative humidity influenced in a negative way on the intradiurnal variation of pollen in the atmosphere of Toledo.

Google trends, una herramienta útil para detectar la presencia de polen atmosférico / Google trends, useful tool in airborne pollen detection

La polinosis es una de las alergias más comunes en el mundo, condicionando de manera directa la calidad de vida de la población, siendo la polinosis al olivo una de las más frecuentes en zonas de clima Mediterráneo. La previsión de los niveles de polen en la atmósfera se ha convertido en un objetivo fundamental para alergólogos y aerobiólogos, tratando de prevenir los síntomas de la polinosis. Google trends es una herramienta desarrollada por Google, que nos facilita información acerca de la dinámica de búsquedas de los usuarios a través de internet. Como objetivo principal de este trabajo se pretende realizar un valoración preliminar de la utilidad de esta herramienta para detectar la presencia de polen en la atmósfera y para explorar el impacto de polinosis entre la población.Para alcanzar dichos objetivos se han empleado datos aerobiológicos sobre concentración de polen de olivo en la atmósfera de Córdoba (España) y datos sobre tendencias de búsqueda en el buscador Google de las palabras ôAlergiaõ, ôPolenõ y ôOlivoõ. Se ha observado una elevada correlación y relación geográfica entre la tendencia de búsquedas de palabras relacionadas con polinosis y las concentraciones reales de polen atmosférico. Esta herramienta posee una gran potencial en la lucha contra la polinosis, ya que permite conocer información instantánea acerca de los síntomas en la problación, a diferencia de los métodos tradicionales que presentan un desfase de la información. De este modo, el presente trabajo ofrece evidencias acerca del potencial de Google trends para detectar la presencia de aeroalérgenos y para estudiar el impacto de la polinosis...

Pollinosis is one of the most extended allergies in the world, determining directly the quality of life of the population. Airborne pollen forecasting has become a key objective for allergists and aerobiologists trying to prevent the symptoms of hay fever. Google trends is a tool developed by Google, which provides information about the dynamics of user searches through internet. The main aim of this work is to conduct a preliminary assessment of the usefulness of this tool to detect the presence of large concentrations of pollen in the atmosphere and to explore the impact of pollinosis among the population.To achieve these objectives, the analysis is based on data for olive pollen concentrations in the atmosphere of Cordoba (Spain) and search counts in Google of the words "Allergy", "Pollen" and "Olive". We observed a high correlation and a high geographic relationship between the number of searches for words related to pollen allergy, and the actual concentrations of atmospheric pollen. This tool possesses a great potential in the fight against allergy because it can provide instant and on-line information about symptoms in population, unlike traditional methods that have a mismatch of information. Thus, the present study provides evidence about the potential of Google trends to detect the presence of aeroallergens and to study the impact of pollinosis...

Pollen spectrum and risk of pollen allergy in central Spain.

The present work analyses the airborne pollen dynamic of the atmosphere of Toledo (central Spain), a World Heritage Site and an important tourist city receiving over 2 millions of visitors every year. The airborne pollen spectrum, the annual dynamics of the most important taxa, the influence of meteorological variables and the risk of suffering pollen allergy are analysed. Results of the present work are compared to those obtained by similar studies in nearby regions. The average annual Pollen Index is 44,632 grains, where 70-90 percent is recorded during February-May. The pollen calendar includes 29 pollen types, in order of importance; Cupressaceae (23.3 percent of the total amount of pollen grains), Quercus (21.2 percent), and Poaceae and Olea (11.5 and 11.2 percent, respectively), are the main pollen producer taxa. From an allergological viewpoint, Toledo is a high-risk locality for the residents and tourist who visit the area, with a great number of days exceeding the allergy thresholds proposed by the Spanish Aerobiological Network (REA). The types triggering most allergic processes in Toledo citizens and tourists are Cupressaceae, Platanus, Olea, Poaceae, Urticaceae and Chenopodiaceae-Amaranthaceae. Allergic risk increases in 3 main periods: winter (January-March), with the main presence of the Cupressaceae type; spring, characterized by Poaceae, Olea, Platanus and Urticaceae pollen types; and, finally, late summer (August-September), characterized by Chenopodiaceae- Amaranthaceae pollen type, which are the main cause of allergies during these months.