RESUMEN
Introduction: A radical shift in energy production is underway worldwide, replacing fossil fuels with renewable sources and causing structural changes in power generation systems. Problem statement: Photovoltaic installations for self-consumption have experienced a steep increase in recent years. They have reached a significant installed capacity to cause a noticeable reduction in consumption from the national grid, which can cause serious management problems. Objectives: In this work, the evolution of the Spanish demand in the last years is analyzed to identify the influence of self-consumption in the overall demand. In addition, a mathematical model is defined to estimate this influence. Methodology: The demand curves of equivalent days in years with high and low installed self-consumption photovoltaic systems have been compared. Then, an estimation of the electricity generated with this source is proposed, with a mathematical model that takes into account data on solar radiation, installed photovoltaic power for self-consumption and other relevant factors. Results: The analysis of the demand has shown a significant reduction of the electricity demand in daylight hours when the number of self-consumption photovoltaic systems increases. Moreover, the proposed model has been able to provide an estimation of the electricity generated with this source. The addition of these estimates to the actual consumption curves of years with a high number of self-consumption installations gives profiles close to those obtained when self-consumption was low. Recommendation: New storage systems need to be implemented and grid management need to be improved to take advantage of the surpluses produced by photovoltaic systems.