Estimating the burden of diseases attributable to lead exposure in the North Africa and Middle East region, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Lead exposure (LE) and its attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) have declined in the recent decade; however, it remains one of the leading public health concerns, particularly in regions with low socio-demographic index (SDI) such as the North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region. Hence, we aimed to describe the attributable burden of the LE in this region. METHODS: Data on deaths, DALYs, years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) attributable to LE in the NAME region and its 21 countries from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. RESULTS: In 2019, the age-standardized death and DALY rates attributable to LE were 23.4 (95% uncertainty interval: 15.1 to 33.3) and 489.3 (320.5 to 669.6) per 100,000 in the region, respectively, both of which were higher among men than women. The overall age-standardized death and DALY rates showed 27.7% and 36.8% decreases, respectively, between 1990 and 2019. In this period, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey had the highest decreases in the age-standardized death and DALY rates, while Afghanistan, Egypt, and Yemen had the lowest ones. Countries within high SDI quintile had lower attributable burden to LE compared with the low SDI quintile. Cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney diseases accounted for the 414.2 (258.6 to 580.6) and 28.7 (17.7 to 41.7) LE attributable DALYs per 100,000 in 2019, respectively. The attributable YLDs was 46.4 (20.7 to 82.1) per 100,000 in 2019, which shows a 25.7% reduction (-30.8 to -22.5%) over 1990-2019. CONCLUSIONS: The overall LE and its attributed burden by cause have decreased in the region from 1990-2019. Nevertheless, the application of cost-effective and long-term programs for decreasing LE and its consequences in NAME is needed.

A global study of the association of cesarean rate and the role of socioeconomic status in neonatal mortality rate in the current century.

INTRODUCTION: Caesarean section (C/S) rates have significantly increased across the world over the past decades. In the present population-based study, we sought to evaluate the association between C/S and neonatal mortality rates. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This retrospective ecological study included longitudinal data of 166 countries from 2000 to 2015. We evaluated the association between C/S rates and neonatal mortality rate (NMR), adjusting for total fertility rate, human development index (HDI), gross domestic product (GDP) percentage, and maternal age at first childbearing. The examinations were also performed considering different geographical regions as well as regions with different income levels. RESULTS: The C/S rate and NMR in the 166 included countries were 19.97% ± 10.56% and 10 ± 10.27 per 1000 live birth, respectively. After adjustment for confounding variables, C/S rate and NMR were found correlated (r = -1.1, p < 0.001). Examination of the relationship between C/S rate and NMR in each WHO region resulted in an inverse correlation in Africa (r = -0.75, p = 0.005), Europe (r = -0.12, p < 0.001), South-East Asia (r = -0.41, p = 0.01), and Western Pacific (r = -0.13, p = 0.02), a direct correlation in America (r = 0.06, p = 0.04), and no correlation in Eastern Mediterranean (r = 0.01, p = 0.88). Meanwhile, C/S rate and NMR were inversely associated in regions with upper-middle (r = -0.15, p < 0.001) and lower-middle (r = -0.24, p < 0.001) income levels, directly associated in high-income regions (r = 0.02, p = 0.001), and not associated in low-income regions (p = 0.13). In countries with HDI below the centralized value of 1 (the real value of 0.9), the correlation between C/S rate and NMR was negative while it was found positive in countries with HDI higher than the mentioned cut-off. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicated that NMR associated with C/S is dependent on various socioeconomic factors such as total fertility rate, HDI, GDP percentage, and maternal age at first childbearing. Further attentions to the socioeconomic status are warranted to minimize the NMR by modifying the C/S rate to the optimum cut-off.

Giant intracardiac thrombosis in an infant with leukaemia and prolonged COVID-19 viral RNA shedding: a case report.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 can induce thrombotic disease both in the venous and arterial circulations, as a result of inflammation, platelet activation, endothelial dysfunction, and stasis. Although several studies have described the coagulation abnormalities and thrombosis in adult patients with COVID-19, there is limited data in children. Here, we present an 18-month-old boy with a prolonged SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding and chronic right atrial and superior vena cava (SVC) thrombosis. CASE PRESENTATION: An 18-month-old boy with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) (pre-B cell ALL) and a history of chemotherapy was referred to our center due to intermittent fever with unknown origin. a positive nasopharyngeal PCR for COVID-19 was reported and stayed positive for eight consecutive weeks The high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) showed no sign of pulmonary embolism. Initial echocardiography indicated a semilunar thrombotic mass extending from right SVC into the right atrium without coronary or myocardial involvement. Enoxaparin was administered with continuous monitoring of the level of anti-Xa activity. The serial echocardiographic studies found a slow but continuous reduction in the mass size. CONCLUSIONS: Our case shows that, as already described in adult patients, clinically relevant thrombosis can complicate the course of pediatric patients as well. In view of the specific and milder manifestations of COVID-19 in children, these complications may pose considerable diagnostic and therapeutic challenges.

A study on sexual functioning and depression in Iranian women following cesarean hysterectomy due to placental abnormality after 3-6 months.

This study aims to investigate the prevalence of depression and impaired sexual function following the hysterectomy in Iran. This study was performed as a retrospective cohort study, from August 2017 to August 2018. Fifty-two patients with a cesarean hysterectomy and 52 with cesarean section were considered as the cases and controls, respectively. Depression and sexual function were assessed 3-6 months following the surgery in both cases and controls. Depression was evaluated by using Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) questionnaire-II-Persian. Sexual function was assessed using the Female Sexual Function Index (FSFI). The average BDI in cases was 15.37 ± 7.6 and in controls was 13.06 ± 6.7. Mild to moderate depression was detected 57.3 percent of whom with hysterectomy and 36.5 percent of whom with C/S, the BDI sum score did not differ significantly between cases and controls (p = .096). The FSFI in cases was 20.06 ± 6.96, and controls was 21.7 ± 9.83 without any significant difference (p = .364). The depression had not been significantly different between women who underwent hysterectomy and were not following 3-6 months after surgery. Furthermore, both groups had impaired sexual function after the surgery.

Cesarean Scar Pregnancy: Results of Treatment Using a Double-Balloon Cervical Ripening Catheter.

Background: Being considered a life-threatening condition, cesarean scar pregnancy (CSP) leads to loss of fertility, severe bleeding, and even maternal mortality. We intended to assess the effect of double-balloon cervical ripening catheter insertion on CSP termination before nine weeks of gestation. Method: All participants were diagnosed CSP by abdominal and transvaginal ultrasound. The cases were treated with a sterile, double-balloon cervical ripening catheter inserted with real-time transabdominal ultrasound guidance and removed three days later. The control group consisted of patients treated with systemic methotrexate with or without fetal reduction. Results: Thirty-five patients were eligible for double-balloon ripening and 32 for MTX therapy; the treatment in cases failed in five of the patients. Success rate difference between two methods was insignificant (Pearson Chi-square: 0.383, p-value: 0.536). There were significant differences regarding the time to normal menstruation (OR: 1.303) and the thickness of the myometrium after surgery (OR: 4.721), but there was no significant difference in the time resolve of either ß-HCG or residue of pregnancy. Conclusion: Double-balloon cervical ripening insertion yields acceptable results for terminating CSP. This strategy does not cause bleeding and even prevents it with its tamponade properties. Additionally, this treatment is minimally invasive simple with low morbidity.

TPP1 Variants in Iranian patients: A Novel Pathogenic Homozygous Variant Causing Neuronal Ceroid Lipofuscinosis 2.

Introduction: TPP1 variants have been identified as a causative agent of neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis 2 disease, that ataxia is one of its clinical features. Therefore, here, molecular study of TPP1 variants is presented in an Iranian cohort and a novel pathogenic variant is described. Methods: This investigation was conducted as a cross-sectional study in a tertiary referral hospital, Children's Medical Center, Pediatrics Center of Excellence. Clinical presentations and pedigrees were documented. Patients with cerebellar ataxia were enrolled in this study. Next-generation sequencing was applied to confirm the diagnosis. Segregation and bioinformatics analyses were also done for the variants using Sanger sequencing. Results: Forty-five patients were included in our study. The mean age of onset was 104 (+55.60) months (minimum = 31 months, maximum = 216 months). The majority of cases (73.3%) were born to consanguineous parents and only 1 patient (2.2%) had an affected sibling. Of the 45 patients, only 1 patient with a novel pathogenic variant (c.1425_1425+1delinsAT, p.A476Cfs*15) in the TPP1 gene was identified. Discussion: The main strength of current study is the relatively large sample size. Besides, a novel pathogenic variant could be important toward the diagnosis and management of this condition. With significant advances in various therapies, early diagnosis could improve the treatments using personalized-based medicine.

Correlation of Fetal Heart Rate, Uterine Artery Pulsatility Index, Pregnancy Associated Plasma Protein-A and Crown-Rump Length in Pre-eclampsia - a Prospective Cohort Study.

BackgroundThe prevalence of pre-eclampsia (PE) as a systemic disease in pregnancy is about 3-5%, but it is still one of the most important causes of maternal and infant mortality worldwide. This study aimed to investigate the association between fetal heart rate (FHR) and uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) in Doppler. Methods:The current cohort study was carried out on 317 pregnant women with a gestational age of 11 to 13 weeks and six days. Mothers were followed up from the first trimester until the delivery between March 2019 and March 2020. Uterine artery pulsatility index, FHR and ductus venosus pulsatility index (DVPI) were recorded. Finally, the Doppler index of ductus venosus, FHR and other design variables were compared between the two groups with and without preeclampsia. Results: Subjects' mean body mass index (BMI) was 25.31±3.98 kg/m2. The UtA-PI was correlated with Crown rump length (CRL) (r=-0.207, p=0.001), pregnancy associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) (r=-0.167, p=0.003), FHR (r=0.14, p=0.011) and uterine artery multiples of the median (UA MoM) (r=0.990, p=0.001), with the last one showing a strong positive correlation with CRL; PAPP-A had a reverse correlation with UA MoM (r=-0.171, p=0.002) and UtA-PI (r=-0.167, p=0.003), while FHR had a poor correlation with UA MoM (r=0.118, p=0.035) and UtA-PI (r=0.142, p=0.011). Conclusions:Uterine artery multiples of the median (UA MoM) was found to have a strong correlation with UtA-PI and, but a reverse correlation with PAPP-A. Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) had a significant association with FHR and UtA-PI. These findings imply the necessity of further future follow-up of offspring with a history of increased UtA-PI or maternal PE for cardiac alteration.

Expansion of the quality of care index on breast cancer and its risk factors using the global burden of disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer (BC), as the top neoplasm in prevalence and mortality in females, imposes a heavy burden on health systems. Evaluation of quality of care and management of patients with BC and its responsible risk factors was the aim of this study. METHODS: We retrieved epidemiologic data of BC from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 1990-2019 database. Epidemiology and burden of BC and its risk factors were explored besides the Quality of Care Index (QCI) introduced before, to assess the provided care for patients with BC in various scales. Provided care for BC risk factors was investigated by their impact on years of life lost and years lived with disability by a novel risk factor quality index (rQCI). We used the socio-demographic index (SDI) to compare results in different socio-economic levels. RESULTS: In 2019, 1,977,212 (95% UI: 1,807,615-2,145,215) new cases of BC in females and 25,143 (22,231-27,786) in males was diagnosed and this major cancer caused 688,562 (635,323-739,571) deaths in females and 12,098 (10,693-13,322) deaths in males, globally. The all-age number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years attributed to BC risk factors in females had an increasing pattern, with a more prominent pattern in metabolic risks. The global estimated age-standardized QCI for BC in females in 2019 was 78.7. The estimated QCI was highest in high SDI regions (95.7). The top countries with the highest calculated QCI in 2019 were Iceland (100), Japan (99.8), and Finland (98.8), and the bottom countries were Mozambique (16.0), Somalia (8.2), and Central African Republic (5.3). The global estimated age-standardized rQCI for females was 82.2 in 2019. CONCLUSION: In spite of the partially restrained burden of BC in recent years, the attributable burden to risk factors has increased remarkably. Countries with higher SDI provided better care regarding both the condition and its responsible risk factors.

The first nationally and sub-nationally representative non-communicable diseases cohort study in Iran: Iran Cohort Study (ICS) protocol.

Purpose: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have become a global health priority with a great need for prompt evidence-based preventing and managing interventions. Here, we describe the development of a comprehensive cohort study that provides the most accurate results for NCDs' risk factors, named the Iran Cohort Study (ICS) to estimate the effect size of the risk factors associated with major NCDs. Methods: This cohort is an observational prospective study, which its baseline data was gathered through the Iran STEPwise Approach to NCD Risk Factor Surveillance (STEPs) survey in 2016. Following the STROBE criteria, the protocols for investigation of several areas were developed. The follow-up phase began through telephone calls to estimate the effect size of socio-demographic, behavioral, and metabolic risk factors on the incidence of or death due to major NCDs during the three years of study period. Delinerables: The main deliverables of ICS are planned to be as following; a comprehensive bank of primary data and follow-up data, national and subnational reports on estimation of the effect size of various risk factors, and a policy brief on the policy options and recommendations for promotion of ongoing programs and designing new interventions. Also, the collected data on the individuals' health status will be sent to the participants as an electronic health record. Conclusion: The present study is the first comprehensive national and sub-national representative cohort study on NCDs' risk factors in Iranian adults. The results could be used for promotion of health planning and also future complementary studies and programs.

Physical Inactivity, Inequalities, and Disparities Across Districts of Iran: A STEPs Survey-Based Analysis.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to estimate the prevalence of physical inactivity in all districts of Iran and the disparities between subgroups defined by various measures. METHODS: Small area estimation method was employed to estimate the prevalence of physical inactivity in districts based on the remaining districts in which data on the level of physical inactivity were available. Various comparisons on the estimations were done based on socioeconomic, sex, and geographical stratifications to determine the disparities of physical inactivity among districts of Iran. RESULTS: All districts of Iran had a higher prevalence of physical inactivity compared with the world average. The estimated prevalence of physical inactivity among all men in all districts was 46.8% (95% uncertainty interval, 45.9%-47.7%). The highest and lowest estimated disparity ratio of physical inactivity were 1.95 and 1.14 in males, and 2.25 and 1.09 in females, respectively. Females significantly had a higher prevalence of 63.5% (62.7%-64.3%). Among both sexes, the poor population and urban residents significantly had higher prevalence of physical inactivity than rich population and rural residents, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The high prevalence of physical inactivity among Iranian adult population suggests the urgent need to adopt population-wide action plans and policies to handle this major public health problem and avert the probable burden.

A 30-year trend of ischemic heart disease burden in a developing country; a systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study 2019 in Iran.

BACKGROUND: Evaluating the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) as the first cause of mortality worldwide is necessary to develop healthcare policies. This study aimed to report the national and subnational IHD burden and risk factors in Iran according to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. METHODS: We extracted, processed, and presented the results of the GBD 2019 study regarding incidence, prevalence, deaths, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and attributable burden to risk factors of IHD in Iran during 1990-2019. RESULTS: Age-standardized death and DALY rates decreased by 42.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 38.1-47.9) and 47.7% (43.6-52.9) during 1990-2019, slower since 2011 and reached 163.6 deaths (149.0-176.2), 2842.7 DALYs (2657.0-3103.1) per 100,000 persons in 2019. Meanwhile, with a lower reduction of 7.7% (6.0-9.5), the incidence rate reached 829.1 new cases (719.9-945.2) per 100,000 persons in 2019. High systolic blood pressure and elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) contributed to the highest deaths, and DALYs age-standardized rates in 1990 and 2019. They followed by high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and high body-mass index (BMI) with an upward trend of contribution from 1990 to 2019. A convergence pattern in the provincial death age-standardized rate was observed, with the lowest rate in Iran's capital city; 84.7 deaths per 100,000 (70.6-99.4) in 2019. CONCLUSION: The incidence rate reduced remarkably lower than the mortality rate, which necessitates promoting primary prevention strategies. Also, interventions should be adopted to control growing risk factors like high FPG, and high BMI.

Predicting Iran's achievement to Sustainable Development Goal 3.2: A systematic analysis of neonatal mortality with scenario-based projections to 2030.

BACKGROUND: Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 (SDG 3.2) is to reduce Under-5 and neonatal mortality rates (U5MR and NMR), two major health systems' performance indicators, globally by 2030. We aimed to report Iran's U5MR and NMR status during 2010-2017 and its achievement of SDG 3.2 by 2030, using scenario-based projection. STUDY DESIGN: To estimate the national and subnational levels of U5MR and NMR, we applied an Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging (EBMA) with Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Spatio_temporal models. We used all available data sources including: 12-year data from the Death Registration System (DRS), two censuses, and a demographic and health surveys (DHS). This study employed two approaches, Maternal Age Cohort (MAC) and Maternal Age Period (MAP), to analyze summary birth history data obtained from censuses and DHS. In addition, we calculated the child mortality rate directly from DHS using the complete birth history method. National and subnational NMR was projected up to 2030 with a scenario-based method using average Annual Rate of Reduction (ARR) introduced by UN-IGME. RESULTS: In 2017, national U5MR and NMR were 15·2 (12·4-18·0) and 11·8 (10·4-13·2), with an average ARR of 5·1% (2·1-8·9) and 3·1% (0·9-5·8) during 2010-2017, respectively. According to our projection scenarios, 17 provinces have not fulfilled SDG 3.2 for NMR yet, and the current trend (the current trend of NMR improvement in Iran) will not result in reaching SDG for some provinces by 2030; However, if each province has the same neonatal mortality annual reduction rate as the best-performing province in the same region, besides achieving SDG, the national NMR will be reduced to 5·2, and almost 92,000 newborn lives will be saved. CONCLUSIONS: Iran has achieved SDG3.2 regarding U5MR and NMR; however, there are provincial inequalities. For all provinces to reach SDG3.2, health policies should focus on reducing provincial inequalities by precise planning for neonatal health care.

The effect of hookah use on COVID-19 related adverse outcomes: Lessons learned from integrating STEPs 2016 and national COVID-19 registration databases.

INTRODUCTION: Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, an international effort has been concerted to identify the factors associated with more adverse outcomes to better allocate resources and perform more effective targeted preventive measures. This study aims to describe the risk of COVID-19 adverse outcomes among individuals with a history of being ever cigarette smokers and being ever hookah users. METHODS: We combined two databases, including the Iran national registry of COVID-19 patients, including 2020 with 656258 hospitalized patients and STEPs survey 2016 with 30541 participants. After merging the two databases using the national ID, the association was investigated between being ever smoker or hookah user and the adverse outcomes of COVID-19 including death, need for a ventilation therapy, and admission in the intensive care unit (ICU), among 474 severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) cases and 211 PCR-positive patients. RESULTS: Among 211 PCR-positive patients, 40 (19%) patients were ever hookah users and 28 (13.3%) were ever cigarette smokers. Death occurred in 27 (12.8%) patients and severe COVID-19 in 17 (11.6%). Among 211 PCR-positive patients, ever cigarette smokers had 4.2 times (95% CI: 1.1-15.4, p=0.03) higher odds of ICU admission and 4.2 times (95% CI: 1.1-15.4, p=0.03) increased odds for need of ventilation, compared with non-smokers. Besides, ever hookah users had 3.9 times (95% CI: 1.1-13.6, p=0.03) higher odds for need of ventilation therapy, compared with non-hookah users. CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco use and hookah smoking were associated with adverse outcomes among COVID-19 patients in Iran.

The effect of non-punitive peer comparison and performance feedback on drivers' behavior using the telematics: The first randomized trial in Iran.

BACKGROUND: Aggressive driving is the leading behavior resulting in fatal or nonfatal disabling injuries. Therefore, programs with the main focus on driving behavior could reduce the risk of traffic injuries remarkably. We aimed to investigate the role of non-punitive performance feedback on drivers' behavior and evaluate the persistence of the altered behavior by using in-vehicle telematics. METHODS: This study was done as a randomized controlled trial by repeated-measures design to evaluate the non-punitive behavioral intervention's efficacy on the behavioral transition to safer driving for 1,289 bus and 104 taxi drivers. All participants were studied during 17 weeks through three stages: stage 0 (five weeks for collecting the baseline characteristics of the participants), stage 1 (nine weeks for randomizing the participants into intervention group or control group and sending the intervention group feedback via short message service), and stage 2 (three weeks for following-up the participants without sending feedback). The intervention group drivers received weekly text messages about the driving score and drivers' rank within their peer group.The study's primary outcome was the driver score changing pattern throughout the study calculated by a neuro-fuzzy scoring system composed of four factors: speed violation, harsh acceleration, harsh braking, and harsh turning. RESULTS: Among the bus drivers, a significant positive effect of the intervention was found in stage 1 (P<0.0001) and in stage 2 (P<0.0001) regarding the calculated scoring system. Among the taxi drivers, a significant positive effect of the intervention was found in stage 1 (P<0.0001), but the effect was not significant in stage 2 (P=0.15). CONCLUSION: The results of this study were in favor of using telematics and its positive effect on driving performance. The reformed behavior persisted even after the intervention ceased. PRACTICAL APPLICATION: Behavioral interventions could be considered a promising strategy to enhance and promote safe driving performance.

A new model for optimization of diabetes clinics with the case study in Iran.

Objective: This study presented a new model for optimal assignment of human resources to 3-level defined clinics to improve the management of diabetes. Methods: First, the data of population and prevalence of diabetes and data about complications were gathered. Then, the number of needed visits was calculated for different classes of diabetic people using guidelines. On the supply side, the maximum number of available visits for a given year by a given specialty was calculated. Two scenarios were considered. The first scenario calculated the number of needed specialties to cover the guideline needs, while the second real-world scenario used human resource data to optimize the assignment of human resources to different levels of clinics. Results: The highest and lowest required specialties per year are 2780 General practitioners (GPs) and 492 gastroenterologists. Seven hundred forty-one endocrinologists or internists are required each year to cover all the needs. The highest and lowest number of the available specialties were 4967 GPs and 35 nutritionists. 81% of cities can cover basic services, while even the lowest level of coverage is not possible in 19% of districts. Conclusions: The present study's findings advise the policymakers to train human resources based on available evidence and distribute the human resources based on an evidence-based model. This could be achieved using the private section resources. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40200-021-00939-4.

Global, regional, and national burden and quality of care index in children and adolescents: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 1990-2017.

PURPOSE: To express a global view of care quality in major causes of mortality and morbidity in children and adolescences. METHODS: We used primary epidemiologic indicators from the Global Burden of Disease 1990-2017 database. We have created four secondary indices from six primary indices in order to assess the care quality parameters. We conducted a principal component analysis on incidence, prevalence, mortality, Years of Life Lost (YLLs), Years Lived with Disability (YLDs), and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) to create an index presented by quality-of-care index (QCI) to compare different countries. RESULTS: The global QCI scores of respiratory infection, enteric infection, leukemia, foreign body aspiration, asthma, epilepsy, diabetes mellitus, dermatitis, road injury, and neonatal disorders have improved remarkably. These causes showed equal distribution of qualified care for both sexes. The global trend of QCI score for mental health showed a steady pattern during the same time and disparities favoring females was evident. The quality of care for these causes was notably higher in developed areas. CONCLUSIONS: The global QCI revealed a universal growth in major causes of death and morbidity in <20y during 28 years. Quality of care is an associate of the level of country's development. Despite effective interventions, inequities still remain. Implementation of policies to invest in quality improvement and inequality elimination is needed.

Global, regional, and national burden and quality of care index of endocarditis: the global burden of disease study 1990-2019.

AIMS: Endocarditis accounts for significant morbidity and mortality. Timely diagnosis and prompt treatment are of paramount importance for optimal patient outcome. However, only few studies have assessed quality of care (QoC) in endocarditis. We aimed to describe QoC and changes in epidemiological features of endocarditis from 1990 to 2019. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using primary indices of mortality, incidence, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life year, obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we calculated four secondary measures. Principal component analysis was performed to calculate QoC index (QCI), scored on a scale of 0-100 with higher values indicating better QoC, for different locations, age groups, and genders from 1990 to 2019. The all-ages incidence rate of endocarditis was estimated to increase significantly from 1990 to 2019, while mortality rate did not change. The age-standardized QCI was 73.6% globally, with higher values in high-income countries than in low-income countries. High-income North America (82.0%) and Asia Pacific (81.1%) had the highest QCI, whereas Eastern Europe (43.3%) had the lowest. Globally, the 30-49 and 95+ age groups had the highest (91.3%) and the lowest (71.7%) QCI, respectively. In most countries, particularly those with lower socio-demographic index, women had better QCI. CONCLUSION: This is the first global assessment of QCI, shedding light on the current trends and highlighting the necessity of improving the endocarditis QoC, mainly by timely case detection, adherence to antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines, utilizing targeted antibiotics and advanced treatments, in the African region and resolving gender inequality in selected countries.

A machine learning approach to evaluate the state of hypertension care coverage: From 2016 STEPs survey in Iran.

BACKGROUND: The increasing burden of hypertension in low- to middle-income countries necessitates the assessment of care coverage to monitor progress and guide future policies. This study uses an ensemble learning approach to evaluate hypertension care coverage in a nationally representative Iranian survey. METHODS: The data source was the cross-sectional 2016 Iranian STEPwise approach to risk factor surveillance (STEPs). Hypertension was based on blood pressure ≥140/90 mmHg, reported use of anti-hypertensive medications, or a previous hypertension diagnosis. The four steps of care were screening (irrespective of blood pressure value), diagnosis, treatment, and control. The proportion of patients reaching each step was calculated, and a random forest model was used to identify features associated with progression to each step. After model optimization, the six most important variables at each step were considered to demonstrate population-based marginal effects. RESULTS: The total number of participants was 30541 (52.3% female, median age: 42 years). Overall, 9420 (30.8%) had hypertension, among which 89.7% had screening, 62.3% received diagnosis, 49.3% were treated, and 7.9% achieved control. The random forest model indicated that younger age, male sex, lower wealth, and being unmarried/divorced were consistently associated with a lower probability of receiving care in different levels. Dyslipidemia was associated with reaching diagnosis and treatment steps; however, patients with other cardiovascular comorbidities were not likely to receive more intensive blood pressure management. CONCLUSION: Hypertension care was mostly missing the treatment and control stages. The random forest model identified features associated with receiving care, indicating opportunities to improve effective coverage.

Estimates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years of lung cancer in Iran, 1990-2019: A systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer is one of the leading cancers, with a high burden worldwide. As a developing country, Iran is facing with population growth, widespread tobacco use, demographic and epidemiologic changes, and environmental exposures, which lead to cancers becoming a severe concern of public health in Iran. We aimed to examine the burden of lung cancer and its risk factors in Iran. METHODS: We utilized the Global Burden of Disease 2019 data and analyzed the total burden of the lung cancer and seven related risk factors by sex, age at national and sub-national levels from 1990 to 2019. RESULTS: The lung cancer age-standardized death rate increased from 11.8 (95% Uncertainty Interval: 9.7-14.4) to 12.9 (11.9-13.9) per 100,000 between 1990 and 2019. This increase was among women from 5 (4.2-7.1) to 8 (7.2-8.8) per 100,000; in contrast, there was a decline among men from 18.5 (14.8-22.6) to 17.8 (16.2-19.4) per 100,000. The burden of lung cancer is concentrated in the advanced age groups. Smoking with 53.5% of total attributable deaths (51.0%-55.9%) was the leading risk factor. At the provincial level, there was a wide range between the lowest and highest, from 8.3 (7.0-10.0) to 19.1 (16.4-22.0) per 100,000 population in the incidence rate and from 8.7 (7.3-10.3) to 20.6 (17.7-24.0) per 100,000 population in mortality rate, respectively in Tehran and West Azerbaijan provinces in 2019. CONCLUSION: The increasing trend of lung cancer burden among the entire Iranian population, the inter-provincial disparities, and the significant rise in burden of this cancer in women necessitate the urgent implementation and development of policies to prevent and manage lung cancer burden and strategies to reduce exposure to risk factors.