Lifetime cost-effectiveness of trial of labor after cesarean in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a trial of labor after one previous cesarean (TOLAC) when incorporating long-term events and outcomes. METHODS: A Markov model comparing TOLAC with elective repeat cesarean delivery (ERCD) was developed for a hypothetical cohort with no contraindication to a TOLAC. Women were selected from a prospective study to derive probability estimates for potential events through three subsequent pregnancies. Probabilities for cerebral palsy and stress urinary incontinence, cost data, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were obtained from the literature. The primary outcome was cost-effectiveness measured as the marginal cost per QALY gained, with a $50,000 threshold per QALY used to define cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: The TOLAC strategy dominated the ERCD strategy at baseline, with $164.2 million saved and 500 QALYs gained per 100,000 women. The model was sensitive to six variables: the probability of uterine rupture and successful TOLAC among women with no prior vaginal delivery, the frequency of stress urinary incontinence, and the costs of failed TOLAC, successful TOLAC, and ERCD. When the probability of TOLAC success was at the base value, 67.2%, TOLAC was preferred if the probability of uterine rupture was 3.1% or less. When the probability of uterine rupture was at the base value, 0.8%, the TOLAC strategy was preferred as long as the probability of success was 47.2% or more. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed the base-case analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Under baseline circumstances, TOLAC is less expensive and more effective than an ERCD when considering long-term consequences when the likelihood of success is 47.2% or more.

Cost-effectiveness of trial of labor after previous cesarean in a minimally biased cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a trial of labor after one previous cesarean delivery (TOLAC). STUDY DESIGN: A model comparing TOLAC with elective repeat cesarean delivery (ERCD) was developed for a hypothetical cohort with no contraindication to a TOLAC. Probabilistic estimates were obtained from women matched on their baseline characteristics using propensity scores. Cost data, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and data on cerebral palsy were incorporated from the literature. RESULTS: The TOLAC strategy dominated the ERCD strategy at baseline, with $138.6 million saved and 1703 QALYs gained per 100,000 women. The model was sensitive to five variables: the probability of uterine rupture, the probability of successful TOLAC, the QALY of failed TOLAC, the cost of ERCD, and the cost of successful TOLAC without complications. When the probability of TOLAC success was at the base value, 68.5%, TOLAC was preferred if the probability of uterine rupture was 4.2% or less. When the probability of uterine rupture was at the base value, 0.8%, the TOLAC strategy was preferred as long as the probability of success was 42.6% or more. CONCLUSION: A TOLAC is less expensive and more effective than an ERCD in a group of women with balanced baseline characteristics.

Elective repeat cesarean delivery compared with spontaneous trial of labor after a prior cesarean delivery: a propensity score analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to determine outcomes, after the use of propensity score techniques, to create balanced groups according to whether a woman undergoes elective repeat cesarean delivery (ERCD) or trial of labor (TOL). STUDY DESIGN: Women who were eligible for a TOL with 1 previous low transverse incision were categorized according to whether they underwent an ERCD or TOL. A propensity score technique was used to develop ERCD and TOL groups with comparable baseline characteristics. Outcomes were assessed with conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: The rates of endometritis, operative injury, respiratory distress syndrome, and newborn infant infection were lower and the rates of hysterectomy and wound complication were higher in the ERCD group. CONCLUSION: Propensity score techniques can be used to generate comparable ERCD and TOL groups. Some types of maternal morbidity (such as hysterectomy) are higher; other types (such as operative injury) are lower in the ERCD group. Although the absolute risk is low, neonatal morbidity appears to be lower in the ERCD group.

Cesarean delivery for the second twin.

OBJECTIVE: To examine maternal and infant outcomes after a vaginal delivery of twin A and a cesarean delivery of twin B, and to identify whether the second twin experienced increased short-term morbidity as part of a combined route of delivery. METHODS: Between January 1, 1999, and December 31, 2000, a prospective cohort study of all cesarean deliveries was conducted at 13 university centers. This secondary analysis was limited to women with twin gestations who experienced labor and underwent cesarean delivery. We compared outcomes of the second twin in women who had vaginal delivery of the first twin and a cesarean delivery of the second twin to those who had cesarean delivery of both twins. RESULTS: One thousand twenty-eight twin pregnancies experienced labor and underwent cesarean delivery; 179 (17%) had a combined vaginal/cesarean delivery. Gestational age at delivery was 34.6 weeks in both groups (P=.97). The rupture of membranes to delivery interval was longer in the combined group (3.2 compared with 2.3 hours, P<.001). Endometritis and culture-proven sepsis in the second twin were more common in the combined group, respectively (n=24, odds ratio 1.6, 95% confidence interval, 1.0-2.7; n=15, odds ratio 1.8, 95% confidence interval, 1.0-3.4). These differences were not significant after logistic regression analysis. There were no statistically significant differences in an arterial cord pH of less than 7.0, Apgar score less than or equal to 3 at 5 minutes, seizures, grade III or IV intraventricular hemorrhage, hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy, or neonatal death. CONCLUSION: Combined twin delivery may be associated with endometritis and neonatal sepsis when compared with a twin delivery where both are delivered by cesarean in twin pregnancies experiencing labor. More serious neonatal sequelae, including hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy and death, were not affected by the route of delivery of the second twin.

Activity restriction among women with a short cervix.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate determinants of and outcomes associated with activity restriction among women with a short cervix. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of a randomized trial of 17-α hydroxyprogesterone caproate for prevention of preterm birth among nulliparous women with singleton gestations and cervices less than 30 mm by midtrimester ultrasonography. Women were asked weekly whether they had been placed on pelvic, work, or nonwork rest. "Any activity restriction" was defined as being placed on any type of rest. Factors associated with any activity restriction were determined and the association between preterm birth and activity restriction was estimated with multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Of the 657 women in the trial, 646 (98%) responded to questions regarding activity restriction. Two hundred fifty-two (39.0%) were placed on any activity restriction at a median of 23.9 weeks (interquartile range 22.6-27.9 weeks). Women on activity restriction were older, more likely to have private insurance, less likely to be Hispanic, had a shorter cervical length, and were more likely to have funneling and intra-amniotic debris. Preterm birth at less than 37 weeks of gestation was more common among women placed on activity restriction (37% compared with 17%, P<.001). After controlling for potential confounding factors, preterm birth remained more common among those placed on activity restriction (adjusted odds ratio 2.37, 95% confidence interval 1.60-3.53). Results were similar for preterm birth at less than 34 weeks of gestation. CONCLUSION: Activity restriction did not reduce the rate of preterm birth in asymptomatic nulliparous women with a short cervix.