Pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy versus chemotherapy in untreated advanced pleural mesothelioma in Canada, Italy, and France: a phase 3, open-label, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Pleural mesothelioma usually presents at an advanced, incurable stage. Chemotherapy with platinum-pemetrexed is a standard treatment. We hypothesised that the addition of pembrolizumab to platinum-pemetrexed would improve overall survival in patients with pleural mesothelioma. METHODS: We did this open-label, international, randomised phase 3 trial at 51 hospitals in Canada, Italy, and France. Eligible participants were aged 18 years or older, with previously untreated advanced pleural mesothelioma, with an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status score of 0 or 1. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to intravenous chemotherapy (cisplatin [75 mg/m2] or carboplatin [area under the concentration-time curve 5-6 mg/mL per min] with pemetrexed 500 mg/m2, every 3 weeks for up to 6 cycles), with or without intravenous pembrolizumab 200 mg every 3 weeks (up to 2 years). The primary endpoint was overall survival in all randomly assigned patients; safety was assessed in all randomly assigned patients who received at least one dose of study therapy. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02784171, and is closed to accrual. FINDINGS: Between Jan 31, 2017, and Sept 4, 2020, 440 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned to chemotherapy alone (n=218) or chemotherapy with pembrolizumab (n=222). 333 (76 %) of patients were male, 347 (79%) were White, and median age was 71 years (IQR 66-75). At final analysis (database lock Dec 15, 2022), with a median follow-up of 16·2 months (IQR 8·3-27·8), overall survival was significantly longer with pembrolizumab (median overall survival 17·3 months [95% CI 14·4-21·3] with pembrolizumab vs 16·1 months [13·1-18·2] with chemotherapy alone, hazard ratio for death 0·79; 95% CI 0·64-0·98, two-sided p=0·0324). 3-year overall survival rate was 25% (95% CI 20-33%) with pembrolizumab and 17% (13-24%) with chemotherapy alone. Adverse events related to study treatment of grade 3 or 4 occurred in 60 (27%) of 222 patients in the pembrolizumab group and 32 (15%) of 211 patients in the chemotherapy alone group. Hospital admissions for serious adverse events related to one or more study drugs were reported in 40 (18%) of 222 patients in the pembrolizumab group and 12 (6%) of 211 patients in the chemotherapy alone group. Grade 5 adverse events related to one or more drugs occurred in two patients on the pembrolizumab group and one patient in the chemotherapy alone group. INTERPRETATION: In patients with advanced pleural mesothelioma, the addition of pembrolizumab to standard platinum-pemetrexed chemotherapy was tolerable and resulted in a significant improvement in overall survival. This regimen is a new treatment option for previously untreated advanced pleural mesothelioma. FUNDING: The Canadian Cancer Society and Merck & Co.

A population-based analysis of spirometry use and the prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung cancer are associated diseases. COPD is underdiagnosed and thus undertreated, but there is limited data on COPD diagnosis in the setting of lung cancer. We assessed the diagnosis of COPD with lung cancer in a large public healthcare system. METHODS: Anonymous administrative data was acquired from ICES, which links demographics, hospital records, physician billing, and cancer registry data in Ontario, Canada. Individuals age 35 or older with COPD were identified through a validated, ICES-derived cohort and spirometry use was derived from physician billings. Statistical comparisons were made using Wilcoxon rank sum, Cochran-Armitage, and chi-square tests. RESULTS: From 2002 to 2014, 756,786 individuals were diagnosed with COPD, with a 2014 prevalence of 9.3%. Of these, 51.9% never underwent spirometry. During the same period, 105,304 individuals were diagnosed with lung cancer, among whom COPD was previously diagnosed in 34.9%. Having COPD prior to lung cancer was associated with lower income, a rural dwelling, a lower Charlson morbidity score, and less frequent stage IV disease (48 vs 54%, p < 0.001). Spirometry was more commonly undertaken in early stage disease (90.6% in stage I-II vs. 54.4% in stage III-IV). CONCLUSION: Over a third of individuals with lung cancer had a prior diagnosis of COPD. Among individuals with advanced lung cancer, greater use of spirometry and diagnosis of COPD may help to mitigate respiratory symptoms.

Trial marketing in the Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer Study.

BACKGROUND: Recruitment to clinical trials is suboptimal, increasing costs, and delaying the potential implementation of clinical advances. Among other barriers, the lack of marketing experience among trialists may limit recruitment. In this observational study, in the context of the Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer Trial, we assessed the value of a motivational survey of study participants in planning a tailored advertising campaign and analysed the value of individual components of advertising in generating telephone calls to the study and recruited subjects. METHODS: The Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer Trial was a single arm study assessing risk modelling for lung cancer screening by low-dose computed tomography scan and autofluorescence bronchoscopy. Individuals were recruited to eight sites across Canada without a central marketing plan. On contact with the study, individuals reported how they heard about the study according to a predefined list. One site, the Juravinski Cancer Centre, worked with a marketing expert to develop a survey to assess participant motivations, source of study awareness, and personal habits. The survey was used to develop a media campaign for recruitment. Media events were collected from all sites. The primary analysis assessed the number of telephone contacts and recruited subjects associated with various media factors. Individual print media characteristics were assessed for their effect on recruitment. RESULTS: At all sites, 7059 individuals contacted the study, and 2537 were eligible and recruited. Among 52 individuals completing the Juravinski Cancer Centre survey, motivation included concern for personal risk of lung cancer (71%), followed by desire to contribute to a cure (67%), followed by personal knowledge of a person with lung cancer (50%). Most reported hearing of the study from the newspaper (58%) despite no print ad yet being distributed. With survey input, a newsprint campaign was executed. The number of media events varied by site (median: 13, range: 3-28). Among all recruits, 56.4% reported referral by newspaper followed by family/friend (14%). Telephone contacts and recruited subjects per event varied significantly by site, while unpaid media events appeared superior to paid events. Print media characteristics associated with increased telephone contacts and recruitment included use of a rational appeal (vs a mixed rational-emotional), less use of white space, and larger headline font. CONCLUSION: A survey of trial candidates provides useful information regarding personal motivation, media use, and lifestyle. Unpaid media events appear superior in generating recruitment, while print media may be superior to radio and television in selecting eligible recruits. The utility of individual print media characteristics appears to differ from the commercial advertising literature. Further research on marketing in clinical trials is encouraged to improve recruitment ( ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT00751660, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00751660 ).

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease prevalence and prediction in a high-risk lung cancer screening population.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is an underdiagnosed condition sharing risk factors with lung cancer. Lung cancer screening may provide an opportunity to improve COPD diagnosis. Using Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer (PanCan) study data, the present study sought to determine the following: 1) What is the prevalence of COPD in a lung cancer screening population? 2) Can a model based on clinical and screening low-dose CT scan data predict the likelihood of COPD? METHODS: The single arm PanCan study recruited current or former smokers age 50-75 who had a calculated risk of lung cancer of at least 2% over 6 years. A baseline health questionnaire, spirometry, and low-dose CT scan were performed. CT scans were assessed by a radiologist for extent and distribution of emphysema. With spirometry as the gold standard, logistic regression was used to assess factors associated with COPD. RESULTS: Among 2514 recruited subjects, 1136 (45.2%) met spirometry criteria for COPD, including 833 of 1987 (41.9%) of those with no prior diagnosis, 53.8% of whom had moderate or worse disease. In a multivariate model, age, current smoking status, number of pack-years, presence of dyspnea, wheeze, participation in a high-risk occupation, and emphysema extent on LDCT were all statistically associated with COPD, while the overall model had poor discrimination (c-statistic = 0.627 (95% CI of 0.607 to 0.650). The lowest and the highest risk decile in the model predicted COPD risk of 27.4 and 65.3%. CONCLUSIONS: COPD had a high prevalence in a lung cancer screening population. While a risk model had poor discrimination, all deciles of risk had a high prevalence of COPD, and spirometry could be considered as an additional test in lung cancer screening programs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: (Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00751660 , registered September 12, 2008).

Participant selection for lung cancer screening by risk modelling (the Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer [PanCan] study): a single-arm, prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Results from retrospective studies indicate that selecting individuals for low-dose CT lung cancer screening on the basis of a highly predictive risk model is superior to using criteria similar to those used in the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST; age, pack-year, and smoking quit-time). We designed the Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer (PanCan) study to assess the efficacy of a risk prediction model to select candidates for lung cancer screening, with the aim of determining whether this approach could better detect patients with early, potentially curable, lung cancer. METHODS: We did this single-arm, prospective study in eight centres across Canada. We recruited participants aged 50-75 years, who had smoked at some point in their life (ever-smokers), and who did not have a self-reported history of lung cancer. Participants had at least a 2% 6-year risk of lung cancer as estimated by the PanCan model, a precursor to the validated PLCOm2012 model. Risk variables in the model were age, smoking duration, pack-years, family history of lung cancer, education level, body-mass index, chest x-ray in the past 3 years, and history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Individuals were screened with low-dose CT at baseline (T0), and at 1 (T1) and 4 (T4) years post-baseline. The primary outcome of the study was incidence of lung cancer. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00751660. FINDINGS: 7059 queries came into the study coordinating centre and were screened for PanCan risk. 15 were duplicates, so 7044 participants were considered for enrolment. Between Sept 24, 2008, and Dec 17, 2010, we recruited and enrolled 2537 eligible ever-smokers. After a median follow-up of 5·5 years (IQR 3·2-6·1), 172 lung cancers were diagnosed in 164 individuals (cumulative incidence 0·065 [95% CI 0·055-0·075], incidence rate 138·1 per 10 000 person-years [117·8-160·9]). There were ten interval lung cancers (6% of lung cancers and 6% of individuals with cancer): one diagnosed between T0 and T1, and nine between T1 and T4. Cumulative incidence was significantly higher than that observed in NLST (4·0%; p<0·0001). Compared with 593 (57%) of 1040 lung cancers observed in NLST, 133 (77%) of 172 lung cancers in the PanCan Study were early stage (I or II; p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: The PanCan model was effective in identifying individuals who were subsequently diagnosed with early, potentially curable, lung cancer. The incidence of cancers detected and the proportion of early stage cancers in the screened population was higher than observed in previous studies. This approach should be considered for adoption in lung cancer screening programmes. FUNDING: Terry Fox Research Institute and Canadian Partnership Against Cancer.

Probability of cancer in pulmonary nodules detected on first screening CT.

BACKGROUND: Major issues in the implementation of screening for lung cancer by means of low-dose computed tomography (CT) are the definition of a positive result and the management of lung nodules detected on the scans. We conducted a population-based prospective study to determine factors predicting the probability that lung nodules detected on the first screening low-dose CT scans are malignant or will be found to be malignant on follow-up. METHODS: We analyzed data from two cohorts of participants undergoing low-dose CT screening. The development data set included participants in the Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer Study (PanCan). The validation data set included participants involved in chemoprevention trials at the British Columbia Cancer Agency (BCCA), sponsored by the U.S. National Cancer Institute. The final outcomes of all nodules of any size that were detected on baseline low-dose CT scans were tracked. Parsimonious and fuller multivariable logistic-regression models were prepared to estimate the probability of lung cancer. RESULTS: In the PanCan data set, 1871 persons had 7008 nodules, of which 102 were malignant, and in the BCCA data set, 1090 persons had 5021 nodules, of which 42 were malignant. Among persons with nodules, the rates of cancer in the two data sets were 5.5% and 3.7%, respectively. Predictors of cancer in the model included older age, female sex, family history of lung cancer, emphysema, larger nodule size, location of the nodule in the upper lobe, part-solid nodule type, lower nodule count, and spiculation. Our final parsimonious and full models showed excellent discrimination and calibration, with areas under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve of more than 0.90, even for nodules that were 10 mm or smaller in the validation set. CONCLUSIONS: Predictive tools based on patient and nodule characteristics can be used to accurately estimate the probability that lung nodules detected on baseline screening low-dose CT scans are malignant. (Funded by the Terry Fox Research Institute and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00751660.).

Plasma pro-surfactant protein B and lung function decline in smokers.

Plasma pro-surfactant protein B (pro-SFTPB) levels have recently been shown to predict the development of lung cancer in current and ex-smokers, but the ability of pro-SFTPB to predict measures of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) severity is unknown. We evaluated the performance characteristics of pro-SFTPB as a biomarker of lung function decline in a population of current and ex-smokers. Plasma pro-SFTPB levels were measured in 2503 current and ex-smokers enrolled in the Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer Study. Linear regression was performed to determine the relationship of pro-SFTPB levels to changes in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) over a 2-year period as well as to baseline FEV1 and the burden of emphysema observed in computed tomography (CT) scans. Plasma pro-SFTPB levels were inversely related to both FEV1 % predicted (p=0.024) and FEV1/forced vital capacity (FVC) (p<0.001), and were positively related to the burden of emphysema on CT scans (p<0.001). Higher plasma pro-SFTPB levels were also associated with a more rapid decline in FEV1 at 1 year (p=0.024) and over 2 years of follow-up (p=0.004). Higher plasma pro-SFTPB levels are associated with increased severity of airflow limitation and accelerated decline in lung function. Pro-SFTPB is a promising biomarker for COPD severity and progression.

Performance of the cancer risk management model lung cancer screening module.

BACKGROUND: The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) demonstrated that low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening reduces lung cancer mortality in a high-risk U.S. population. A microsimulation model of LDCT screening was developed to estimate the impact of introducing population-based screening in Canada. DATA AND METHODS: LDCT screening was simulated using the lung cancer module of the Cancer Risk Management Model (CRMM-LC), which generates large, representative samples of the Canadian population from which a cohort with characteristics similar to NLST participants was selected. Screening parameters were estimated for stage shift, LDCT sensitivity and specificity, lead time, and survival to fit to NLST incidence and mortality results. The estimation process was a step-wise directed search. RESULTS: Simulated mortality reduction from LDCT screening was 23% in the CRMM-LC, compared with 20% in the NLST. The difference in the number of lung cancer cases over six years varied by, at most, 2.3% in the screen arm. The difference in cumulative incidence at six years was less than 2% in both screen and control arms. The estimated percentage over-diagnosed was 24.8%, which was 6% higher than NLST results. INTERPRETATION: Simulated screening reproduces NLST results. The CRMM-LC can evaluate a variety of population-based screening strategies. Sensitivity analyses are recommended to provide a range of projections to reflect model uncertainty.

Canadian Cancer Risk Management Model: evaluation of cancer control.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to develop a decision support tool to assess the potential benefits and costs of new healthcare interventions. METHODS: The Canadian Partnership Against Cancer (CPAC) commissioned the development of a Cancer Risk Management Model (CRMM)--a computer microsimulation model that simulates individual lives one at a time, from birth to death, taking account of Canadian demographic and labor force characteristics, risk factor exposures, and health histories. Information from all the simulated lives is combined to produce aggregate measures of health outcomes for the population or for particular subpopulations. RESULTS: The CRMM can project the population health and economic impacts of cancer control programs in Canada and the impacts of major risk factors, cancer prevention, and screening programs and new cancer treatments on population health and costs to the healthcare system. It estimates both the direct costs of medical care, as well as lost earnings and impacts on tax revenues. The lung and colorectal modules are available through the CPAC Web site (www.cancerview.ca/cancerrriskmanagement) to registered users where structured scenarios can be explored for their projected impacts. Advanced users will be able to specify new scenarios or change existing modules by varying input parameters or by accessing open source code. Model development is now being extended to cervical and breast cancers.

Optimizing the number of variants tracked to follow disease burden with circulating tumor DNA assays in metastatic colorectal cancer.

Background: The number of somatic mutations detectable in circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is highly heterogeneous in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). The optimal number of mutations required to assess disease kinetics is relevant and remains poorly understood. Objectives: To determine whether increasing panel breadth (the number of tracked variants in a ctDNA assay) would alter the sensitivity in detecting ctDNA in patients with mCRC. Design: We used archival tissue sequencing to perform an in silico assessment of the optimal number of tracked mutations to detect and monitor disease kinetics in mCRC using sequencing data from the Canadian Cancer Trials Group CO.26 trial. Methods: For each patient, 1, 2, 4, 8, 12, or 16 of the most clonal (highest variant allele frequency) somatic variants were selected from archival tissue-based whole-exome sequencing and assessed for the proportion of variants detected in matched ctDNA at baseline, week 8, and progression timepoints. Results: Data from 110 patients were analyzed. Genes most frequently encountered among the top four highest VAF variants in archival tissue were TP53 (51.9% of patients), APC (43.3%), KRAS (42.3%), and SMAD4 (9.6%). While the frequency of detecting at least one tracked variant increased when expanding beyond variant pool sizes of 1 and 2 in baseline (p = 0.0030) and progression (p = 0.0030) ctDNA samples, we observed no significant benefit to increases in variant pool size past four variants in any of the ctDNA timepoints (p < 0.05). Conclusion: While increasing panel breadth beyond two tracked variants improved variant re-detection in ctDNA samples from patients with treatment refractory mCRC, increases beyond four tracked variants yielded no significant improvement in variant re-detection.

Liver Metastases and Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor Efficacy in Patients With Refractory Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: A Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have limited activity in microsatellite-stable (MSS) or mismatch repair-proficient (pMMR) colorectal cancer. Recent findings suggest the efficacy of ICIs may be modulated by the presence of liver metastases (LM). Objective: To investigate the association between the presence of LM and ICI activity in advanced MSS colorectal cancer. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this secondary analysis of the Canadian Cancer Trials Group CO26 (CCTG CO.26) randomized clinical trial, patients with treatment-refractory colorectal cancer were randomized in a 2:1 fashion to durvalumab plus tremelimumab or best supportive care alone between August 10, 2016, and June 15, 2017. The primary end point was overall survival (OS) with 80% power and 2-sided α = .10. The median follow-up was 15.2 (0.2-22.0) months. In this post hoc analysis performed from February 11 to 14, 2022, subgroups were defined based on the presence or absence of LM and study treatments. Intervention: Durvalumab plus tremelimumab or best supportive care. Main Outcomes and Measures: Hazard ratios (HRs) and 90% CIs were calculated based on a stratified Cox proportional hazards regression model. Plasma tumor mutation burden at study entry was determined using a circulating tumor DNA assay. The primary end point of the study was OS, defined as the time from randomization to death due to any cause; secondary end points included progression-free survival (PFS) and disease control rate (DCR). Results: Of 180 patients enrolled (median age, 65 [IQR, 36-87] years; 121 [67.2%] men; 19 [10.6%] Asian, 151 [83.9%] White, and 10 [5.6%] other race or ethnicity), LM were present in 127 (70.6%). For patients with LM, there was a higher proportion of male patients (94 of 127 [74.0%] vs 27 of 53 [50.9%]; P = .005), and the time from initial cancer diagnosis to study entry was shorter (median, 40 [range, 8-153] vs 56 [range, 14-181] months; P = .001). Plasma tumor mutation burden was significantly higher in patients with LM. Patients without LM had significantly improved PFS with durvalumab plus tremelimumab (HR, 0.54 [90% CI, 0.35-0.96]; P = .08; P = .02 for interaction). Disease control rate was 49% (90% CI, 36%-62%) in patients without LM treated with durvalumab plus tremelimumab, compared with 14% (90% CI, 6%-38%) in those with LM (odds ratio, 5.70 [90% CI, 1.46-22.25]; P = .03). On multivariable analysis, patients without LM had significantly improved OS and PFS compared with patients with LM. Conclusions and Relevance: In this secondary analysis of the CCTG CO.26 study, the presence of LM was associated with worse outcomes for patients with advanced colorectal cancer. Patients without LM had improved PFS and higher DCR with durvalumab plus tremelimumab. Liver metastases may be associated with poor outcomes of ICI treatment in advanced colorectal cancer and should be considered in the design and interpretation of future clinical studies evaluating this therapy.

Brief Report: Canadian Cancer Trials Group IND.227: A Phase 2 Randomized Study of Pembrolizumab in Patients With Advanced Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma (NCT02784171).

Immune checkpoint inhibitors have activity in mesothelioma. IND.227 was a phase 2 trial (120 patients planned) comparing progression-free survival of standard platinum and pemetrexed (CP) versus CP + pembrolizumab (pembro) versus pembro. Accrual to the pembro arm was discontinued on the basis of interim analysis (IA-16 wk disease control rate). CP + pembro was tolerable, with progression-free survival similar between arms and median survival and overall response rate higher than those of CP alone (19.8 mo [95% confidence interval or CI: 8.4-41.36] versus 8.9 mo [95% CI: 5.3-12.8] and 47% [95% CI: 24%-71%] versus 19% [95% CI: 5%-42%], respectively). The subsequent phase 3 trial has completed accrual; results are expected in 2023.

A phase II study of the halichondrin B analog eribulin mesylate in gemcitabine refractory advanced pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND: Eribulin mesylate is a halichondrin B analog that inhibits microtubule dynamics. Pre-clinical studies have suggested anti-tumor activity in pancreatic cancer. This phase II study of eribulin in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer previously treated with gemcitabine was conducted by the Princess Margaret Hospital Phase II consortium. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Eligibility criteria included locally advanced or metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma and previous treatment with gemcitabine. The study was a single arm phase II trial using a Simon 2-stage design. The primary endpoint was response rate, secondary endpoints included time to progression and overall survival. RESULTS: Fifteen patients were enrolled, 14 received treatment, and 12 were evaluable for response. The median age was 61, and the majority of patients were ECOG performance status 1. Grade 3 or greater adverse events included neutropenia (29%), fatigue (14%), peripheral neuropathy (7%) and thrombosis (7%). There were no complete or partial responses and therefore the study was closed after the first stage. The best response was stable disease in 5/12 (42%) of patients. Of these five patients, three had stable disease for 9 months or greater. Median time to progression was 1.4 months, and median overall survival was 6.1 months. CONCLUSION: Eribulin was well tolerated but did not result in any objective responses in gemcitabine refractory pancreatic cancer. However, several patients had prolonged stable disease, suggesting that further studies of eribulin in pancreatic cancer may be warranted.

Do beta-blockers alter dyspnea and fatigue in advanced lung cancer? A retrospective analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Dyspnea is common in lung cancer and may be partially attributable to increased ventilatory drive due to muscle weakness. The sympathetic component of this pathway might be mitigated by ß-blockers. METHODS: A retrospective review of new patients with stage III-IV non-small lung cancer or any small cell lung cancer was undertaken to assess the impact of ß-blocker use on dyspnea and fatigue. Data were abstracted for clinical characteristics, ß-blocker use, and pre-treatment Edmonton Symptom Assessment System dyspnea and fatigue scores. RESULTS: Of 348 patients assessed, 202 met eligibility criteria. The median age was 67, 55.4% were female, 18.8% had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and 5.9% had active coronary artery disease. Over 60% of patients scored 4/10 or higher on their dyspnea and fatigue scores. While dyspnea and fatigue were moderately associated, no association was found between ß-blocker use and either symptom. Recorded dosages of ß-blockers were low. COPD was associated with dyspnea and fatigue, while anemia was associated with fatigue. CONCLUSIONS: Dyspnea and fatigue are prevalent and increased in the presence of COPD and anemia. No association between ß-blocker use and dyspnea or fatigue scores was observed. This may be attributable to inadequate dosing or to retrospective bias.

A comparison of a new multinomial stopping rule with stopping rules of fleming and gehan in single arm phase II cancer clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Response rate (RR) alone may be insensitive to drug activity in phase II trials. Early progressive disease (EPD) could improve sensitivity as well as increase stage I stopping rates. This study compares the previously developed dual endpoint stopping rule (DESR), which incorporates both RR and EPD into a two-stage, phase II trial, with rules using only RR. METHODS: Stopping rules according to the DESR were compared with studies conducted under the Fleming (16 trials) or Gehan (23 trials) designs. The RR hypothesis for the DESR was consistent with the comparison studies (ralt = 0.2, rnul = 0.05). Two parameter sets were used for EPD rates of interest and disinterest respectively (epdalt, epdnul): (0.4, 0.6) and (0.3, 0.5). RESULTS: Compared with Fleming, the DESR was more likely to allow stage two of accrual and to reject the null hypothesis (Hnul) after stage two, with rejection being more common with EPD parameters (0.4, 0.6) than (0.3, 0.5). Compared with Gehan, both DESR parameter sets accepted Hnul in 15 trials after stage I compared with 8 trials by Gehan, with consistent conclusions in all 23 trials after stage II. CONCLUSIONS: The DESR may reject Hnul when EPD rates alone are low, and thereby may improve phase II trial sensitivity to active, cytostatic drugs having limited response rates. Conversely, the DESR may invoke early stopping when response rates are low and EPD rates are high, thus shortening trials when drug activity is unlikely. EPD parameters should be chosen specific to each trial.

Stopping rules employing response rates, time to progression, and early progressive disease for phase II oncology trials.

BACKGROUND: Response rate (RR), the most common early means of assessing oncology drugs, is not suitable as the sole endpoint for phase II trials of drugs which induce disease stability but not regression. Time to progression (TTP) may be more sensitive to such agents, but induces recruitment delays in multistage studies. Early progressive disease (EPD) is the earliest signal of time to progression, but is less intuitive to investigators, To study drugs with unknown anti-tumour effect, we designed the Combination Stopping Rule (CSR), which allows investigators to establish a hypothesis using RR and TTP, while the program also employs early progressive disease (EPD) to assess for drug inactivity during the first stage of study accrual. METHODS: A computer program was created to generate stopping rules based on specified error rates, trial size, and RR and median TTP of interest and disinterest for a two-stage phase II trial. Rules were generated for stage II such that the null hypothesis (H(nul)) was rejected if either RR or TTP met desired thresholds, and accepted if both did not. Assuming an exponential distribution for progression, EPD thresholds were determined based on specified TTP values. Stopping rules were generated for stage I such that Hnul was accepted and the study stopped if both RR and EPD were unacceptable. RESULTS: Patient thresholds were generated for RR, median TTP, and EPD which achieved specified error rates and which allowed early stopping based on RR and EPD. For smaller proportional differences between interesting and disinteresting values of RR or TTP, larger trials are required to maintain alpha error, and early stopping is more common with a larger first stage. CONCLUSION: Stopping rules are provided for phase II trials for drugs which have either a desirable RR or TTP. In addition, early stopping can be achieved using RR and EPD.

Management and outcomes of patients with chronic obstructive lung disease and lung cancer in a public healthcare system.

HYPOTHESIS: There is limited data on the care and outcomes of individuals with both chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung cancer, particularly in advanced disease. We hypothesized such patients would receive less cancer treatment and have worse outcomes. METHODS: We analyzed administrative data from the province of Ontario including demographics, hospitalization records, physician billings, cancer diagnosis, and treatments. COPD was defined using the ICES-derived COPD cohort (1996-2014) with data from 2002 to 2014. Descriptive statistics and multivariable analyses were undertaken. RESULTS: Of 105 304 individuals with lung cancer, 43 375 (41%) had stage data and 36 738 (34.9%) had COPD. Those with COPD were likely to be younger, have a Charlson score ≤ 1, have lower income, to live rurally, and to have stage I/II lung cancer (29.8 vs 26.5%; all p<0.001). For the COPD population with stage I/II cancer, surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy were less likely (56.8 vs. 65.9% and 15.4 vs. 17.1%, respectively), while radiation was more likely (26.0 vs. 21.8%) (p all < 0.001). In the stage III/IV population, individuals with COPD received less chemotherapy (55.9 vs 64.4%) or radiation (42.5 vs 47.5%; all p<0.001). Inhaler and oxygen use was higher those with COPD, as were hospitalizations for respiratory infections and COPD exacerbations. On multivariable analysis, overall survival was worse among those with COPD (HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.19-1.22). CONCLUSIONS: A co-diagnosis of COPD and lung cancer is associated with less curative treatment in early stage disease, less palliative treatment in late stage disease, and poorer outcomes.

Risk Perception Among a Lung Cancer Screening Population.

BACKGROUND: A successful lung cancer screening program requires a patient cohort at sufficient risk of developing cancer who are willing to participate. Among other factors, a patient's lung cancer risk perception may inform their attitudes toward screening and smoking cessation programs. RESEARCH QUESTION: This study analyzed data from the Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer (PanCan) Study to address the following questions: Which factors are associated with the perception of lung cancer risk? Is there an association between risk perception for lung cancer and actual calculated risk? Is there an association between risk perception for lung cancer and the intent to quit smoking? Are there potential targets for lung cancer screening awareness? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: The PanCan study recruited current or former smokers aged 50 to 75 years who had at least a 2% risk of developing lung cancer over 6 years to undergo low-dose screening CT. Risk perception and worry about lung cancer were captured on a baseline questionnaire. Cumulative logistic regression analysis was used to assess the relationship between baseline risk variables and both lung cancer risk perception and worry. RESULTS: Among the 2,514 individuals analyzed, a higher perceived risk of lung cancer was positively associated with calculated risk (P = .032). Younger age, being a former smoker, respiratory symptoms, lower FEV1, COPD, and a family history of lung cancer were associated with higher perceived risk. Conversely, a consistent relationship between calculated risk and worry was not identified. There was a positive association between risk perception and lung cancer worry and reported intent to quit smoking. INTERPRETATION: Individuals' lung cancer risk perception correlated positively with calculated risk in a screening population. Promotion of screening programs may benefit from focusing on factors associated with higher risk perception; conversely, harnessing worry seemingly holds less value.

Clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of integrating smoking cessation into lung cancer screening: a microsimulation model.

BACKGROUND: Low-dose computed tomography (CT) screening can reduce lung cancer mortality in people at high risk; adding a smoking cessation intervention to screening could further improve screening program outcomes. This study aimed to assess the impact of adding a smoking cessation intervention to lung cancer screening on clinical outcomes, costs and cost-effectiveness. METHODS: Using the OncoSim-Lung mathematical microsimulation model, we compared the projected lifetime impact of a smoking cessation intervention (nicotine replacement therapy, varenicline and 12 wk of counselling) in the context of annual low-dose CT screening for lung cancer in people at high risk to lung cancer screening without a cessation intervention in Canada. The simulated population consisted of Canadians born in 1940-1974; lung cancer screening was offered to eligible people in 2020. In the base-case scenario, we assumed that the intervention would be offered to smokers up to 10 times; each intervention would achieve a 2.5% permanent quit rate. Sensitivity analyses varied key model inputs. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios with a lifetime horizon from the health system's perspective, discounted at 1.5% per year. Costs are in 2019 Canadian dollars. RESULTS: Offering a smoking cessation intervention in the context of lung cancer screening could lead to an additional 13% of smokers quitting smoking. It could potentially prevent 12 more lung cancers and save 200 more life-years for every 1000 smokers screened, at a cost of $22 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. The results were most sensitive to quit rate. The intervention would cost over $50 000 per QALY gained with a permanent quit rate of less than 1.25% per attempt. INTERPRETATION: Adding a smoking cessation intervention to lung cancer screening is likely cost-effective. To optimize the benefits of lung cancer screening, health care providers should encourage participants who still smoke to quit smoking.

Effect of Combined Immune Checkpoint Inhibition vs Best Supportive Care Alone in Patients With Advanced Colorectal Cancer: The Canadian Cancer Trials Group CO.26 Study.

Importance: Single-agent immune checkpoint inhibition has not shown activities in advanced refractory colorectal cancer (CRC), other than in those patients who are microsatellite-instability high (MSI-H). Objective: To evaluate whether combining programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) and cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated protein 4 (CTLA-4) inhibition improved patient survival in metastatic refractory CRC. Design, Setting, and Participants: A randomized phase 2 study was conducted in 27 cancer centers across Canada between August 2016 and June 2017, and data were analyzed on October 18, 2018. Eligible patients had histologically confirmed adenocarcinoma of the colon or rectum; received all available standard systemic therapies (fluoropyrimidines, oxaliplatin, irinotecan, and bevacizumab if appropriate; cetuximab or panitumumab if RAS wild-type tumors; regorafenib if available); were aged 18 years or older; had adequate organ function; had Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0 or 1, and measurable disease. Interventions: We randomly assigned patients to receive either 75 mg of tremelimumab every 28 days for the first 4 cycles plus 1500 mg durvalumab every 28 days, or best supportive care alone (BSC) in a 2:1 ratio. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was overall survival (OS) and a 2-sided P<.10 was considered statistically significant. Circulating cell-free DNA from baseline plasma was used to determine microsatellite instability (MSI) and tumor mutation burden (TMB). Results: Of 180 patients enrolled (121 men [67.2%] and 59 women [32.8%]; median [range] age, 65 [36-87] years), 179 were treated. With a median follow-up of 15.2 months, the median OS was 6.6 months for durvalumab and tremelimumab and 4.1 months for BSC (hazard ratio [HR], 0.72; 90% CI, 0.54-0.97; P = .07). Progression-free survival was 1.8 months and 1.9 months respectively (HR, 1.01; 90% CI, 0.76-1.34). Grade 3 or 4 adverse events were significantly more frequent with immunotherapy (75 [64%] patients in the treatment group had at least 1 grade 3 or higher adverse event vs 12 [20%] in the BSC group). Circulating cell-free DNA analysis was successful in 168 of 169 patients with available samples. In patients who were microsatellite stable (MSS), OS was significantly improved with durvalumab and tremelimumab (HR, 0.66; 90% CI, 0.49-0.89; P = .02). Patients who were MSS with plasma TMB of 28 variants per megabase or more (21% of MSS patients) had the greatest OS benefit (HR, 0.34; 90% CI, 0.18-0.63; P = .004). Conclusions and Relevance: This phase 2 study suggests that combined immune checkpoint inhibition with durvalumab plus tremelimumab may be associated with prolonged OS in patients with advanced refractory CRC. Elevated plasma TMB may select patients most likely to benefit from durvalumab and tremelimumab. Further confirmation studies are warranted. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02870920.