Fraction of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths attributable to chronic diseases.

Evidence shows that chronic diseases are associated with COVID-19 severity and death. This study aims to estimate the fraction of hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 attributable to chronic diseases associated to poor nutrition and smoking among adults who tested positive to COVID-19 in Mexico. We analyzed 1,006,541 adults aged ≥20 who tested positive for COVID-19 from March 23 to December 5, 2020. Six chronic diseases were considered: obesity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and chronic kidney disease (CKD). We calibrated the database using a bias quantification method to consider undiagnosed disease cases. To estimate the total impact of multiple diseases, we defined a multimorbidity variable according to the number of diseases. Risks of hospitalization and death were estimated with Poisson regression models and used to calculate population attributable fractions (PAFs). Chronic diseases accounted for to 25.4% [95% CI: 24.8%-26.1%], 28.3% (95% CI: 27.8%-28.7%) and 15.3% (95% CI: 14.9%-15.7%) of the hospitalizations among adults below 40, 40-59, and 60 years and older, respectively. For COVID-19-related deaths, 50.1% (95% CI: 48.6%-51.5%), 40.5% (95% CI: 39.7%-41.3%), and 18.7% (95% CI, 18.0%-19.5%) were attributable to chronic diseases in adults under 40, 40-59, and 60 years and older, respectively. Chronic diseases linked to poor nutrition and smoking could have contributed to a large burden of hospitalization and deaths from COVID-19 in Mexico, particularly among younger adults. Medical and structural interventions to curb chronic disease incidence and facilitate disease control are urgently needed.

Prevalence of Covid-19 sequelae in the National Health and Nutrition Survey 2020.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of Covid-19 sequelae and its association with sociodemographic and medical care characteristics. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Mexican adults that experienced Covid-19 symptoms and were seropositive to the N-protein of Sars-CoV-2 in the Ensanut 2020 responded to a question regarding sequelae. Associations were estimated using Poisson regression. RESULTS: The prevalence of sequelae was 15.7%, being higher for people with higher education and who were hospitalized or treated at an emergency room during the acute Covid-19 phase. CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported sequelae associated to Covid-19 was frequent. Covid-19 sequelae could represent an important challenge for the health system and the Mexican society.

Aislamiento ante síntomas sugestivos de Covid-19 o contacto con un caso: cumplimiento, prevalencia y factores asociados. Ensanut 2020 Covid-19.

Objetivo. Investigar el cumplimiento de las recomendacio-nes de aislamiento ante síntomas de Covid-19 o contacto con un caso. Material y métodos. Estudio transversal basado en la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición 2020 sobre Covid-19. Se describió la prevalencia de aislamiento y su asociación con factores del nivel individual, hogar y contexto utilizando modelos de regresión log-binomial. Resultados. El 48.1% de la población >10 años reportó quedarse en casa ante síntomas o contacto con un caso. La prevalencia de aislamiento fue menor entre población ocupada vs. no-ocupada (RP 0.81; IC95% 0.73-0.89), mayor entre personas con alto nivel socioeconómico vs. bajo (RP 1.22; IC95% 1.08-1.38) y menor entre personas viviendo en estados sin un mensaje específico sobre aislamiento vs. estados con mensaje específico (RP 0.76; IC95% 0.63-0.91). Conclusiones. El cumplimiento de las recomendaciones de aislamiento durante la pandemia de Covid-19 estuvo asociado con factores socioeconómicos individuales y con la calidad de los mensajes de salud pública de los estados.

Revisión rápida: probabilidad de contagio por infecciones respiratorias agudas en el transporte público colectivo.

Objetivo. Determinar el nivel de evidencia sobre la proba-bilidad de transmisión de enfermedades respiratorias agudas en el transporte público colectivo. Material y métodos. Se utilizó la metodología de revisiones rápidas de Cochrane. La estrategia de búsqueda abarcó una base de datos acadé-mica hasta el 10 de diciembre de 2020. Resultados. Se identificaron 16 manuscritos que cumplieron los criterios de selección. En estudios de cohorte agrupados se encontró que el momio de seroconversión por influenza A o B fue 54% mayor en personas con uso frecuente de transporte público colectivo en comparación con las personas con un uso poco frecuente (razón de momios: 1.54; IC95%:1.06-2.01). Conclusión. La probabilidad de contagio por enfermeda-des respiratorias agudas puede incrementar con el uso del transporte público colectivo. Algunas recomendaciones para reducir la probabilidad de contagio en el transporte público colectivo son el uso de cubrebocas y reducir el número de pasajeros y tiempo de traslado.

Predicting obesity reduction after implementing warning labels in Mexico: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: In October 2019, Mexico approved a law to establish that nonalcoholic beverages and packaged foods that exceed a threshold for added calories, sugars, fats, trans fat, or sodium should have an "excess of" warning label. We aimed to estimate the expected reduction in the obesity prevalence and obesity costs in Mexico by introducing warning labels, over 5 years, among adults under 60 years of age. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Baseline intakes of beverages and snacks were obtained from the 2016 Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey. The expected impact of labels on caloric intake was obtained from an experimental study, with a 10.5% caloric reduction for beverages and 3.0% caloric reduction for snacks. The caloric reduction was introduced into a dynamic model to estimate weight change. The model output was then used to estimate the expected changes in the prevalence of obesity and overweight. To predict obesity costs, we used the Health Ministry report of the impact of overweight and obesity in Mexico 1999-2023. We estimated a mean caloric reduction of 36.8 kcal/day/person (23.2 kcal/day from beverages and 13.6 kcal/day from snacks). Five years after implementation, this caloric reduction could reduce 1.68 kg and 4.98 percentage points (pp) in obesity (14.7%, with respect to baseline), which translates into a reduction of 1.3 million cases of obesity and a reduction of US$1.8 billion in direct and indirect costs. Our estimate is based on experimental evidence derived from warning labels as proposed in Canada, which include a single label and less restrictive limits to sugar, sodium, and saturated fats. Our estimates depend on various assumptions, such as the transportability of effect estimates from the experimental study to the Mexican population and that other factors that could influence weight and food and beverage consumption remain unchanged. Our results will need to be corroborated by future observational studies through the analysis of changes in sales, consumption, and body weight. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we estimated that warning labels may effectively reduce obesity and obesity-related costs. Mexico is following Chile, Peru, and Uruguay in implementing warning labels to processed foods, but other countries could benefit from this intervention.

Soft drink intake is associated with weight gain, regardless of physical activity levels: the health workers cohort study.

BACKGROUND: While soft drink intake is positively associated with weight gain, no previous study has investigated whether leisure-time physical activity modifies this association. We estimated the association between soft drink intake and body weight, and explored if this association differed by levels of leisure-time physical activity. METHODS: We used data from the health workers cohort study, a prospective study of Mexican adults (20 to 85y old), including 1268 health workers and their families, who were assessed at baseline (2004-2006) and follow-up (2010-2012). We assessed soft drink intake (cola and flavored soda) using a validated food frequency questionnaire. We measured leisure-time physical activity using a self-report questionnaire, and categorized according to the 2010 World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations. Body weight was measured by trained personnel. The association between changes in soft drink intake and weight change, and if such association varied by levels of physical activity was estimated through fixed-effect models. RESULTS: An increase in one serving per day of soft drink was associated with 0.10 kg (95% CI 0.00, 0.19) increase in weight per year. This association was not modified by leisure-time physical activity, as demonstrated by the magnitude of the coefficient of the interaction between soft drink, leisure-time physical activity, and time (- 0.03 kg, 95% CI - 0.27 to 0.21); people who complied with the WHO physical activity recommendations gained 0.36 kg/year per serving of soft drink, compared to 0.48 kg/year for people without sufficient physical activity. CONCLUSIONS: Soft drink intake was associated with weight gain. Leisure-time physical activity did not modify the association between soft drink intake and weight gain. This finding challenges the idea that leisure-time physical activity is sufficient to counterbalance weight gain associated to soft drink intake.

Regular consumption of soft drinks is associated with type 2 diabetes incidence in Mexican adults: findings from a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although high consumption of soft drinks has been associated with excess of type 2 diabetes risk, the strength of this association in the Mexican population, where a type 2 diabetes genetic susceptibility has been well established, has been scarcely studied. This study aimed to estimate the risk of type 2 diabetes due to soft drinks consumption in a cohort of Mexicans. METHODS: We used data on 1445 participants from the Health Workers Cohort Study, a prospective cohort conducted in Cuernavaca, Mexico. Soft drinks consumption was assessed with a semi-quantitative 116-item food frequency questionnaire. Incident type 2 diabetes was defined as self-report of physician-diagnosed type 2 diabetes, fasting glucose > 126 mg/dl, or hypoglycemic medication at any examination. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: With a total of 9526.2 person-years of follow-up, 109 incident cases of type 2 diabetes were observed. Type 2 diabetes incidence rate was 7.6, 11.0, and 17.1 per 1000 person-years across levels of soft drinks consumption of < 1, 1-4, and ≥ 5 servings/week, respectively (p < 0.001 for trend). The intake of ≥5 soft drinks/week was significantly associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes (HR 1.9 95% CI:1.0-3.5) compared with consumption of < 1/week (p-trend = 0.040). The HR was attenuated by further adjustment for body mass index (HR 1.5 95%CI:0.8-2.8) and abdominal obesity (HR 1.6 95%CI:0.8-3.0). CONCLUSIONS: The consumption of soft drinks was associated with a higher risk of type 2 diabetes in a cohort of Mexican adults. Our results further support recommendations to limit soft drinks intake to address the growing diabetes epidemic in Mexico.

[Rapid review of the use of community-wide surgical masks and acute respiratory infections]. / Revisión rápida del uso de cubrebocas quirúrgicos en ámbito comunitario e infecciones respiratorias agudas.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effectiveness of using surgical masks in community settings to reduce the probability of infection by SARS-CoV-2 or other acute viral respiratory infection, compared to not using surgical masks. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We followed the Cochrane rapid review methodology. The search strategy encompasses one academic database and pre-prints until April 1, 2020. Titles and abstracts were reviewed by one investigator. The full text review was divided among three researchers. The results were synthesized in a narrative way. RESULTS: 713 manuscripts were identified, of which 21 met the inclusion criteria. Of six systematic reviews, four found no reduction in the probability of transmission. Experimental home studies found no differences in the probability of contagion associated with the use of mouth masks. Only one modeling study estimated a 20% reduction in the incidence of acute respiratory disease, assuming that 10 to 50% of the population use the surgical masks correctly. CONCLUSIONS: The scientific evidence is inconclusive to recommend or discourage the use of surgical masks at the population level. Considering the potential negative effects, official recommendations should await for the results of natural experiments currently occurring in countries that have recommended the use of face masks at the population level.

OBJETIVO: Evaluar la efectividad del uso de cubrebocas quirúrgico en ámbitos comunitarios para reducir la probabilidad de contagio por SARS-CoV-2 u otra infección respiratoria aguda viral, en comparación con no usar cubrebocas. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Se utilizó la metodología de revisiones rápidas de Cochrane. La estrategia de búsqueda abarcó una base de datos académica y pre-prints hasta el 1 de abril de 2020. Los títulos y resúmenes fueron revisados por un investigador. La revisión de textos completos fue dividida entre tres investigadores. Los resultados fueron sintetizados de forma narrativa. RESULTADOS: Se identificaron 713 manuscritos, de los cuales 21 cumplieron los criterios de inclusión. De seis revisiones sistemáticas, cuatro no encontraron reducciones en la probabilidad de contagio y seis estudios experimentales en hogares no encontraron diferencias en la probabilidad de contagio asociado con el uso de cubrebocas. Únicamente un estudio de modelaje estimó una reducción de 20% en la incidencia de enfermedad respiratoria, asumiendo que 10 a 50% de la población hace uso correcto de cubrebocas quirúrgicos. CONCLUSIONES: La evidencia científica no es concluyente para recomendar o desalentar el uso de cubrebocas a nivel poblacional. Considerando los potenciales efectos negativos, las recomendaciones gubernamentales deberían esperar a los resultados de los experimentos naturales en países que han recomendado la utilización poblacional de cubrebocas.

Association between tax on sugar sweetened beverages and soft drink consumption in adults in Mexico: open cohort longitudinal analysis of Health Workers Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine changes in categories of soft drink consumption in a cohort of Mexican adults, three years after the implementation of the sugar sweetened beverage tax. DESIGN: Open cohort longitudinal analysis. SETTING: Three waves of the Health Workers Cohort Study, Mexico, spanning 2004 to 2018. PARTICIPANTS: 1770 people aged 19 years or older with information on drinks consumption available in at least one of the three cohort waves. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Change in probability of belonging to one of four categories of soft drinks consumption (non, low, medium, high) after the tax was implemented. Heterogeneity of associations by income and education was also assessed. RESULTS: Before the implementation of the tax, more than 50% of the participants were medium and high consumers of soft drinks and less than 10% were in the non-consumer category. After the tax was implemented, 43% of the population was categorised as medium or high consumers and the prevalence of non-consumers increased to 14%. Three years after implementation of the tax on 1 January 2014, the probability of being a non-consumer of soft drinks increased by 4.7 (95% confidence interval 0.3 to 9.1) percentage points and that of being a low consumer increased by 8.3 (0.6 to 16.0) percentage points compared with the pre-tax period. Conversely, the probability of being in the medium and high levels of soft drinks consumption decreased by 6.8 (0.5 to 13.2) percentage points and 6.1 (0.4 to 11.9) percentage points, respectively. No significant heterogeneity of the tax across income levels was observed, but stronger effects of the tax were seen in participants with secondary school education or higher, compared with those with elementary school or less. CONCLUSIONS: The Mexican sugar sweetened beverage tax was associated with a reduction in the probability of consuming soft drinks in this cohort of employees from a healthcare provider. The results cannot be extrapolated to the Mexican population, but they suggest that three years after implementation, the tax had helped to increase the proportion of people who do not consume soft drinks while decreasing the proportion of high and medium consumers.

Cumulative soft drink consumption is associated with insulin resistance in Mexican adults.

BACKGROUND: Insulin resistance (IR) is an important risk factor for type 2 diabetes (T2D) and other cardiometabolic diseases. Recent studies suggest that soft drink consumption could increase IR. However, inconsistent findings have been observed. OBJECTIVE: The aim was to estimate the association between the cumulative consumption of soft drinks and IR by means of the HOMA-IR in Mexican adults. METHODS: We analyzed the association between cumulative consumption of soft drinks and HOMA-IR change after 7 y of follow-up in participants (n = 1073) of the Health Workers Cohort Study. Soft drink consumption was estimated by food-frequency questionnaires. Insulin was measured by chemiluminescence, and fasting glucose was measured with the enzymatic colorimetric method. HOMA-IR was computed as fasting insulin (mIU/L) × fasting glucose (mmol/L)/22.5. To assess the relation between cumulative soft drink consumption and HOMA-IR change, we performed robust linear regression models. Additionally, we used fixed-effects models to estimate the association between changes in soft drink consumption and change in HOMA-IR. RESULTS: At baseline, the average age was 44 y. Mean cumulative soft drink consumption was 0.42 servings/d. Median HOMA-IR increased from 1.5 at baseline to 2.0 at follow-up. Soft drink consumption was positively associated with HOMA-IR change. In the multiple linear regression analysis, for each increase in the consumption of 2 (355 mL) soft drinks/d, the average change between baseline and follow-up HOMA-IR showed an increase of 1.11 units (95% CI: 0.74, 1.48). CONCLUSIONS: Our data support the hypothesis that, in Mexican adults, a higher soft drink consumption is associated with an increase in HOMA-IR, despite known risk factors. These findings support the need for reinforcing policies to reduce soft drink consumption in our population.

Revisión rápida: probabilidad de contagio por infecciones respiratorias agudas en el transporte público colectivo / Quick review: probability of infection by acute respiratory infections on public transportation

Resumen: Objetivo: Determinar el nivel de evidencia sobre la probabilidad de transmisión de enfermedades respiratorias agudas en el transporte público colectivo. Material y métodos: Se utilizó la metodología de revisiones rápidas de Cochrane. La estrategia de búsqueda abarcó una base de datos académica hasta el 10 de diciembre de 2020. Resultados: Se identificaron 16 manuscritos que cumplieron los criterios de selección. En estudios de cohorte agrupados se encontró que el momio de seroconversión por influenza A o B fue 54% mayor en personas con uso frecuente de transporte público colectivo en comparación con las personas con un uso poco frecuente (razón de momios: 1.54; IC95%:1.06-2.01). Conclusión: La probabilidad de contagio por enfermedades respiratorias agudas puede incrementar con el uso del transporte público colectivo. Algunas recomendaciones para reducir la probabilidad de contagio en el transporte público colectivo son el uso de cubrebocas y reducir el número de pasajeros y tiempo de traslado.

Abstract: Objective: To determine the level of evidence on the probability of transmission of acute respiratory diseases on collective public transport. Materials and methods: We followed the Cochrane rapid review methodology. The search strategy encompasses one academic database until December 10, 2020. Results: 16 manuscripts met the inclusion criteria. Pooling of cohort studies showed that the odd of seroconversion to influenza A or B was 54% greater in people with frequent use of public transport compared to people with infrequent use (odds ratio: 1.54; 95%CI: 1.06-2.01). Conclusions: The probability of contagion from acute respiratory diseases may increase with the use of public transport. Some recommendations to reduce the probability of contagion in collective public transport include the use of face masks, to avoid speaking or singing, and to reduce the number of passengers and the travel time.

Aislamiento ante síntomas sugestivos de Covid-19 o contacto con un caso: cumplimiento, prevalencia y factores asociados. Ensanut 2020 Covid-19 / Isolation in the fase of symptoms suggestive of Covid-19 or contact with a case: compliance, prevalence, and associated factors. Ensanut 2020 Covid-19

Resumen: Objetivo: Investigar el cumplimiento de las recomendaciones de aislamiento ante síntomas de Covid-19 o contacto con un caso. Material y métodos: Estudio transversal basado en la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición 2020 sobre Covid-19. Se describió la prevalencia de aislamiento y su asociación con factores del nivel individual, hogar y contexto utilizando modelos de regresión log-binomial. Resultados: El 48.1% de la población >10 años reportó quedarse en casa ante síntomas o contacto con un caso. La prevalencia de aislamiento fue menor entre población ocupada vs. no-ocupada (RP 0.81; IC95% 0.73-0.89), mayor entre personas con alto nivel socioeconómico vs. bajo (RP 1.22; IC95% 1.08-1.38) y menor entre personas viviendo en estados sin un mensaje específico sobre aislamiento vs. estados con mensaje específico (RP 0.76; IC95% 0.63-0.91). Conclusiones: El cumplimiento de las recomendaciones de aislamiento durante la pandemia de Covid-19 estuvo asociado con factores socioeconómicos individuales y con la calidad de los mensajes de salud pública de los estados.

Abstract: Objective: To examine compliance to isolation and quarantine recommendations during the early phase of the Covid-19 epidemic in Mexico. Materials and methods: Cross-sectional population-based study (National Health and Nutrition Survey 2020 Covid-19). We estimated the prevalence of compliance with recommendations and assessed its association with individual, household and context level variables using log-binomial models. Results: 48.1% of the population over 10 years old reported staying at home when faced with symptoms or a potential contact with a case. The prevalence was lower in employed vs unemployed population (PR 0.81; 95%IC 0.73-0.89), higher among higher socioeconomic position groups vs lower (RP 1.22; 95%IC 1.08-1.38), and lower among people living in states with an unspecific public health message regarding isolation and quarantine (RP 0.76; 95%IC 0.63-0.91). Conclusions: Compliance to isolation and quarantine recommendations was associated with socioeconomic factors and the quality of public health messages during the Covid-19 pandemic in Mexico.

Prevalence of Covid-19 sequelae in the National Health and Nutrition Survey 2020 / Secuelas de Covid-19: Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición 2020

Abstract: Objective: To estimate the prevalence of Covid-19 sequelae and its association with sociodemographic and medical care characteristics. Materials and methods: Mexican adults that experienced Covid-19 symptoms and were seropositive to the N-protein of Sars-CoV-2 in the Ensanut 2020 responded to a question regarding sequelae. Associations were estimated using Poisson regression. Results: The prevalence of sequelae was 15.7%, being higher for people with higher education and who were hospitalized or treated at an emergency room during the acute Covid-19 phase. Conclusions: Self-reported sequelae associated to Covid-19 was frequent. Covid-19 sequelae could represent an important challenge for the health system and the Mexican society.

Resumen: Objetivo: Estimar la prevalencia de secuelas para Covid-19 y su asociación con características sociodemográficas y de atención médica. Material y métodos: Adultos mexicanos que experimentaron síntomas de Covid-19 y fueron seropositivos a la proteina N del SARS-CoV-2 respondieron una pregunta sobre secuelas. Se estimaron las asociaciones mediante regresión Poisson. Resultados: La prevalencia de secuelas fue de 15.7%, siendo mayor en personas con alto nivel educativo y que recibieron atención hospitalaria o de urgencia durante la fase aguda de Covid-19. Conclusiones: El autorreporte de secuelas asociadas con Covid-19 fue frecuente. Las secuelas por Covid-19 podrían representar un reto importante para el sistema de salud y la sociedad mexicana.

Revisión rápida del uso de cubrebocas quirúrgicos en ámbito comunitario e infecciones respiratorias agudas / Rapid review of the community-wide use of surgical masks and acute respiratory infections

Resumen: Objetivo: Evaluar la efectividad del uso de cubrebocas quirúrgico en ámbitos comunitarios para reducir la probabilidad de contagio por SARS-CoV-2 u otra infección respiratoria aguda viral, en comparación con no usar cubrebocas. Material y métodos: Se utilizó la metodología de revisiones rápidas de Cochrane. La estrategia de búsqueda abarcó una base de datos académica y pre-prints hasta el 1 de abril de 2020. Los títulos y resúmenes fueron revisados por un investigador. La revisión de textos completos fue dividida entre tres investigadores. Los resultados fueron sintetizados de forma narrativa. Resultados: Se identificaron 713 manuscritos, de los cuales 21 cumplieron los criterios de inclusión. De seis revisiones sistemáticas, cuatro no encontraron reducciones en la probabilidad de contagio y seis estudios experimentales en hogares no encontraron diferencias en la probabilidad de contagio asociado con el uso de cubrebocas. Únicamente un estudio de modelaje estimó una reducción de 20% en la incidencia de enfermedad respiratoria, asumiendo que 10 a 50% de la población hace uso correcto de cubrebocas quirúrgicos. Conclusiones: La evidencia científica no es concluyente para recomendar o desalentar el uso de cubrebocas a nivel poblacional. Considerando los potenciales efectos negativos, las recomendaciones gubernamentales deberían esperar a los resultados de los experimentos naturales en países que han recomendado la utilización poblacional de cubrebocas.

Abstract: Objective: To assess the effectiveness of using surgical masks in community settings to reduce the probability of infection by SARS-CoV-2 or other acute viral respiratory infection, compared to not using surgical masks. Materials and methods: We followed the Cochrane rapid review methodology. The search strategy encompasses one academic database and pre-prints until April 1, 2020. Titles and abstracts were reviewed by one investigator. The full text review was divided among three researchers. The results were synthesized in a narrative way. Result: 713 manuscripts were identified, of which 21 met the inclusion criteria. Of six systematic reviews, four found no reduction in the probability of transmission. Experimental home studies found no differences in the probability of contagion associated with the use of mouth masks. Only one modeling study estimated a 20% reduction in the incidence of acute respiratory disease, assuming that 10 to 50% of the population use the surgical masks correctly. Conclusions: The scientific evidence is inconclusive to recommend or discourage the use of surgical masks at the population level. Considering the potential negative effects, official recommendations should await for the results of natural experiments currently occurring in countries that have recommended the use of face masks at the population level.