Prognostic and Predictive Value of Tumor Budding in Colorectal Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Tumor budding (TB) is an adverse prognostic factor in colorectal cancer (CRC). International consensus on a standardized assessment method has led to its wider reporting. However, uncertainty regarding its clinical value persists. This study aimed to (1) confirm the prognostic significance of TB, particularly in stage II CRC; (2) to determine optimum thresholds for TB risk grouping; and (3) to determine whether TB influences responsiveness to chemotherapy. METHODS: TB was assessed in CRC sections from 1575 QUASAR trial patients randomized between adjuvant chemotherapy and observation. Optimal risk group cutoffs were determined by maximum likelihood methods, with their influence on recurrence and mortality investigated in stratified log-rank analyses on exploratory (n = 504), hypothesis-testing (n = 478), and final (n = 593) data sets. RESULTS: The optimal threshold for high-grade TB (HGTB) was ≥ 10 buds per 1.23 mm2. High-grade TB tumors had significantly worse outcomes than those with lower TB: 10-year recurrence 36% versus 22% (risk ratio, 2.00 [95% CI, 1.62-2.45]; 2P < .0001) and 10-year mortality 50% vs. 37% (risk ratio, 1.53 [95% CI, 1.34-1.76]; 2P < .0001). The prognostic significance remained equally strong after allowance for other pathological risk factors, including stage, grade, lymphovascular invasion, and mismatch repair status. There was a nonsignificant trend toward increasing chemotherapy efficacy with increasing bud counts. CONCLUSIONS: TB is a strong independent predictor of recurrence. Chemotherapy efficacy is comparable in patients with higher and lower TB; hence, absolute reductions in recurrence and death with chemotherapy should be about twice as large in patients with ≥ 10 than < 10 TB counts.

Validation study of a quantitative multigene reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction assay for assessment of recurrence risk in patients with stage II colon cancer.

PURPOSE: We developed quantitative gene expression assays to assess recurrence risk and benefits from chemotherapy in patients with stage II colon cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We sought validation by using RNA extracted from fixed paraffin-embedded primary colon tumor blocks from 1,436 patients with stage II colon cancer in the QUASAR (Quick and Simple and Reliable) study of adjuvant fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy versus surgery alone. A recurrence score (RS) and a treatment score (TS) were calculated from gene expression levels of 13 cancer-related genes (n = 7 recurrence genes and n = 6 treatment benefit genes) and from five reference genes with prespecified algorithms. Cox proportional hazards regression models and log-rank methods were used to analyze the relationship between the RS and risk of recurrence in patients treated with surgery alone and between TS and benefits of chemotherapy. RESULTS: Risk of recurrence was significantly associated with RS (hazard ratio [HR] per interquartile range, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.74; P = .004). Recurrence risks at 3 years were 12%, 18%, and 22% for predefined low, intermediate, and high recurrence risk groups, respectively. T stage (HR, 1.94; P < .001) and mismatch repair (MMR) status (HR, 0.31; P < .001) were the strongest histopathologic prognostic factors. The continuous RS was associated with risk of recurrence (P = .006) beyond these and other covariates. There was no trend for increased benefit from chemotherapy at higher TS (P = .95). CONCLUSION: The continuous 12-gene RS has been validated in a prospective study for assessment of recurrence risk in patients with stage II colon cancer after surgery and provides prognostic value that complements T stage and MMR. The TS was not predictive of chemotherapy benefit.