Tracking cryptococcal meningitis to monitor HIV program success during the Treat-All era: an analysis of national data in Botswana.

BACKGROUND: Cryptococcal meningitis causes substantial mortality in high-HIV prevalence African countries despite advances in disease management and increasing antiretroviral therapy coverage. Reliable diagnosis of cryptococcal meningitis is cheap and more accessible than other indicators of AHD burden such as CD4 testing or investigation for disseminated tuberculosis; therefore, monitoring cryptococcal meningitis incidence has the potential to serve as a valuable metric of HIV programmatic success. METHODS: Botswana national meningitis surveillance data from 2015 to 2022 were obtained from electronic health records. All electronic laboratory records from cerebrospinal fluid samples analysed within government healthcare facilities in Botswana were extracted from a central online repository. Adjustments for missing data were made through triangulation with prospective cohort study datasets. Cryptococcal meningitis case frequency was enumerated using a case definition and incidence calculated using national census data. RESULTS: A total of 1,744 episodes of cryptococcal meningitis were identified; incidence declined from 15.0 (95% CI 13.4-16.7) cases/100,000 person-years in 2015 to 7.4 (95% CI 6.4-8.6) cases/100,000 person-years in 2022. However, the rate of decline slowed following the introduction of universal treatment in 2016. The highest incidence was observed in men and individuals aged 40-44. The proportion of cases diagnosed through cryptococcal antigen testing increased from 35.5% to 86.3%. CONCLUSION: Cryptococcal meningitis incidence has decreased in Botswana following expansion of ART coverage but persists at a stubbornly high incidence. Most cases are now diagnosed through the cheap and easy-to-use cryptococcal antigen test highlighting the potential of using cryptococcal meningitis as key metric of programme success in the Treat All era.

Severity of Severe Acute Respiratory System Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Alpha Variant (B.1.1.7) in England.

BACKGROUND: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) alpha variant (B.1.1.7) is associated with higher transmissibility than wild-type virus, becoming the dominant variant in England by January 2021. We aimed to describe the severity of the alpha variant in terms of the pathway of disease from testing positive to hospital admission and death. METHODS: With the approval of NHS England, we linked individual-level data from primary care with SARS-CoV-2 community testing, hospital admission, and Office for National Statistics all-cause death data. We used testing data with S-gene target failure as a proxy for distinguishing alpha and wild-type cases, and stratified Cox proportional hazards regression to compare the relative severity of alpha cases with wild-type diagnosed from 16 November 2020 to 11 January 2021. RESULTS: Using data from 185 234 people who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in the community (alpha = 93 153; wild-type = 92 081), in fully adjusted analysis accounting for individual-level demographics and comorbidities as well as regional variation in infection incidence, we found alpha associated with 73% higher hazards of all-cause death (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.73; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.41-2.13; P < .0001) and 62% higher hazards of hospital admission (1.62; 1.48-1.78; P < .0001) compared with wild-type virus. Among patients already admitted to the intensive care unit, the association between alpha and increased all-cause mortality was smaller and the CI included the null (aHR: 1.20; 95% CI: .74-1.95; P = .45). CONCLUSIONS: The SARS-CoV-2 alpha variant is associated with an increased risk of both hospitalization and mortality than wild-type virus.

Overall and cause-specific hospitalisation and death after COVID-19 hospitalisation in England: A cohort study using linked primary care, secondary care, and death registration data in the OpenSAFELY platform.

BACKGROUND: There is concern about medium to long-term adverse outcomes following acute Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), but little relevant evidence exists. We aimed to investigate whether risks of hospital admission and death, overall and by specific cause, are raised following discharge from a COVID-19 hospitalisation. METHODS AND FINDINGS: With the approval of NHS-England, we conducted a cohort study, using linked primary care and hospital data in OpenSAFELY to compare risks of hospital admission and death, overall and by specific cause, between people discharged from COVID-19 hospitalisation (February to December 2020) and surviving at least 1 week, and (i) demographically matched controls from the 2019 general population; and (ii) people discharged from influenza hospitalisation in 2017 to 2019. We used Cox regression adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, obesity, smoking status, deprivation, and comorbidities considered potential risk factors for severe COVID-19 outcomes. We included 24,673 postdischarge COVID-19 patients, 123,362 general population controls, and 16,058 influenza controls, followed for ≤315 days. COVID-19 patients had median age of 66 years, 13,733 (56%) were male, and 19,061 (77%) were of white ethnicity. Overall risk of hospitalisation or death (30,968 events) was higher in the COVID-19 group than general population controls (fully adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.22, 2.14 to 2.30, p < 0.001) but slightly lower than the influenza group (aHR 0.95, 0.91 to 0.98, p = 0.004). All-cause mortality (7,439 events) was highest in the COVID-19 group (aHR 4.82, 4.48 to 5.19 versus general population controls [p < 0.001] and 1.74, 1.61 to 1.88 versus influenza controls [p < 0.001]). Risks for cause-specific outcomes were higher in COVID-19 survivors than in general population controls and largely similar or lower in COVID-19 compared with influenza patients. However, COVID-19 patients were more likely than influenza patients to be readmitted or die due to their initial infection or other lower respiratory tract infection (aHR 1.37, 1.22 to 1.54, p < 0.001) and to experience mental health or cognitive-related admission or death (aHR 1.37, 1.02 to 1.84, p = 0.039); in particular, COVID-19 survivors with preexisting dementia had higher risk of dementia hospitalisation or death (age- and sex-adjusted HR 2.47, 1.37 to 4.44, p = 0.002). Limitations of our study were that reasons for hospitalisation or death may have been misclassified in some cases due to inconsistent use of codes, and we did not have data to distinguish COVID-19 variants. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that people discharged from a COVID-19 hospital admission had markedly higher risks for rehospitalisation and death than the general population, suggesting a substantial extra burden on healthcare. Most risks were similar to those observed after influenza hospitalisations, but COVID-19 patients had higher risks of all-cause mortality, readmission or death due to the initial infection, and dementia death, highlighting the importance of postdischarge monitoring.

Barriers to tuberculosis case finding in primary and secondary health facilities in Ghana: perceptions, experiences and practices of healthcare workers.

BACKGROUND: Ghana's national tuberculosis (TB) prevalence survey conducted in 2013 showed higher than expected TB prevalence indicating that many people with TB were not being identified and treated. Responding to this, we assessed barriers to TB case finding from the perspective, experiences and practices of healthcare workers (HCWs) in rural and urban health facilities in the Volta region, Ghana. METHODS: We conducted structured clinic observations and in-depth interviews with 12 HCWs (including five trained in TB case detection) in four rural health facilities and a municipal hospital. Interview transcripts and clinic observation data were manually organised, triangulated and analysed into health system-related and HCW-related barriers. RESULTS: The key health system barriers identified included lack of TB diagnostic laboratories in rural health facilities and no standard referral system to the municipal hospital for further assessment and TB testing. In addition, missed opportunities for early diagnosis of TB were driven by suboptimal screening practices of HCWs whose application of the national standard operating procedures (SOP) for TB case detection was inconsistent. Further, infection prevention and control measures in health facilities were not implemented as recommended by the SOP. HCW-related barriers were mainly lack of training on case detection guidelines, fear of infection (exacerbated by lack of appropriate personal protective equipment [PPE]) and lack of motivation among HCWs for TB work. Solutions to these barriers suggested by HCWs included provision of at least one diagnostic facility in each sub-municipality, provision of transport subsidies to enable patients' travel for testing, training of newly-recruited staff on case detection guidelines, and provision of appropriate PPE. CONCLUSION: TB case finding was undermined by few diagnostic facilities; inconsistent referral mechanisms; poor implementation, training and quality control of a screening tool and guidelines; and HCWs fearing infection and not being motivated. We recommend training for and quality monitoring of TB diagnosis and treatment with a focus on patient-centred care, an effective sputum transport system, provision of the TB symptom screening tool and consistent referral pathways from peripheral health facilities.

High-Dose Oral and Intravenous Rifampicin for the Treatment of Tuberculous Meningitis in Predominantly Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-Positive Ugandan Adults: A Phase II Open-Label Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: High-dose rifampicin may improve outcomes of tuberculous meningitis (TBM). Little safety or pharmacokinetic (PK) data exist on high-dose rifampicin in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) coinfection, and no cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) PK data exist from Africa. We hypothesized that high-dose rifampicin would increase serum and CSF concentrations without excess toxicity. METHODS: In this phase II open-label trial, Ugandan adults with suspected TBM were randomized to standard-of-care control (PO-10, rifampicin 10 mg/kg/day), intravenous rifampicin (IV-20, 20 mg/kg/day), or high-dose oral rifampicin (PO-35, 35 mg/kg/day). We performed PK sampling on days 2 and 14. The primary outcomes were total exposure (AUC0-24), maximum concentration (Cmax), CSF concentration, and grade 3-5 adverse events. RESULTS: We enrolled 61 adults, 92% were living with HIV, median CD4 count was 50 cells/µL (interquartile range [IQR] 46-56). On day 2, geometric mean plasma AUC0-24hr was 42.9·h mg/L with standard-of-care 10 mg/kg dosing, 249·h mg/L for IV-20 and 327·h mg/L for PO-35 (P < .001). In CSF, standard of care achieved undetectable rifampicin concentration in 56% of participants and geometric mean AUC0-24hr 0.27 mg/L, compared with 1.74 mg/L (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2-2.5) for IV-20 and 2.17 mg/L (1.6-2.9) for PO-35 regimens (P < .001). Achieving CSF concentrations above rifampicin minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) occurred in 11% (2/18) of standard-of-care, 93% (14/15) of IV-20, and 95% (18/19) of PO-35 participants. Higher serum and CSF levels were sustained at day 14. Adverse events did not differ by dose (P = .34). CONCLUSIONS: Current international guidelines result in sub-therapeutic CSF rifampicin concentration for 89% of Ugandan TBM patients. High-dose intravenous and oral rifampicin were safe and respectively resulted in exposures ~6- and ~8-fold higher than standard of care, and CSF levels above the MIC.

UK prevalence of underlying conditions which increase the risk of severe COVID-19 disease: a point prevalence study using electronic health records.

BACKGROUND: Characterising the size and distribution of the population at risk of severe COVID-19 is vital for effective policy and planning. Older age, and underlying health conditions, are associated with higher risk of death from COVID-19. This study aimed to describe the population at risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions across the United Kingdom. METHODS: We used anonymised electronic health records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD to estimate the point prevalence on 5 March 2019 of the at-risk population following national guidance. Prevalence for any risk condition and for each individual condition is given overall and stratified by age and region with binomial exact confidence intervals. We repeated the analysis on 5 March 2014 for full regional representation and to describe prevalence of underlying health conditions in pregnancy. We additionally described the population of cancer survivors, and assessed the value of linked secondary care records for ascertaining COVID-19 at-risk status. RESULTS: On 5 March 2019, 24.4% of the UK population were at risk due to a record of at least one underlying health condition, including 8.3% of school-aged children, 19.6% of working-aged adults, and 66.2% of individuals aged 70 years or more. 7.1% of the population had multimorbidity. The size of the at-risk population was stable over time comparing 2014 to 2019, despite increases in chronic liver disease and diabetes and decreases in chronic kidney disease and current asthma. Separately, 1.6% of the population had a new diagnosis of cancer in the past 5 y. CONCLUSIONS: The population at risk of severe COVID-19 (defined as either aged ≥70 years, or younger with an underlying health condition) comprises 18.5 million individuals in the UK, including a considerable proportion of school-aged and working-aged individuals. Our national estimates broadly support the use of Global Burden of Disease modelled estimates in other countries. We provide age- and region- stratified prevalence for each condition to support effective modelling of public health interventions and planning of vaccine resource allocation. The high prevalence of health conditions among older age groups suggests that age-targeted vaccination strategies may efficiently target individuals at higher risk of severe COVID-19.

Case fatality risk of the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern B.1.1.7 in England, 16 November to 5 February.

The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant of concern (VOC) is increasing in prevalence across Europe. Accurate estimation of disease severity associated with this VOC is critical for pandemic planning. We found increased risk of death for VOC compared with non-VOC cases in England (hazard ratio: 1.67; 95% confidence interval: 1.34-2.09; p < 0.0001). Absolute risk of death by 28 days increased with age and comorbidities. This VOC has potential to spread faster with higher mortality than the pandemic to date.

Tuberculosis in Hospitalized Patients With Human Immunodeficiency Virus: Clinical Characteristics, Mortality, and Implications From the Rapid Urine-based Screening for Tuberculosis to Reduce AIDS Related Mortality in Hospitalized Patients in Africa.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is the major killer of people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) globally, with suboptimal diagnostics and management contributing to high case-fatality rates. METHODS: A prospective cohort of patients with confirmed TB (Xpert MTB/RIF and/or Determine TB-LAM Ag positive) identified through screening HIV-positive inpatients with sputum and urine diagnostics in Malawi and South Africa (Rapid urine-based Screening for Tuberculosis to reduce AIDS Related Mortality in hospitalized Patients in Africa [STAMP] trial). Urine was tested prospectively (intervention) or retrospectively (standard of care arm). We defined baseline clinical phenotypes using hierarchical cluster analysis, and also used Cox regression analysis to identify associations with early mortality (≤56 days). RESULTS: Of 322 patients with TB confirmed between October 2015 and September 2018, 78.0% had ≥1 positive urine test. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage was 80.2% among those not newly diagnosed, but with median CD4 count 75 cells/µL and high HIV viral loads. Early mortality was 30.7% (99/322), despite near-universal prompt TB treatment. Older age, male sex, ART before admission, poor nutritional status, lower hemoglobin, and positive urine tests (TB-LAM and/or Xpert MTB/RIF) were associated with increased mortality in multivariate analyses. Cluster analysis (on baseline variables) defined 4 patient subgroups with early mortality ranging from 9.8% to 52.5%. Although unadjusted mortality was 9.3% lower in South Africa than Malawi, in adjusted models mortality was similar in both countries (hazard ratio, 0.9; P = .729). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality following prompt inpatient diagnosis of HIV-associated TB remained unacceptably high, even in South Africa. Intensified management strategies are urgently needed, for which prognostic indicators could potentially guide both development and subsequent use.

Prevalence and diversity of enteric pathogens among cholera treatment centre patients with acute diarrhea in Uvira, Democratic Republic of Congo.

BACKGROUND: Cholera remains a major global health challenge. Uvira, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), has had endemic cholera since the 1970's and has been implicated as a possible point of origin for national outbreaks. A previous study among this population, reported a case confirmation rate of 40% by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) among patients at the Uvira Cholera Treatment Centre (CTC). This study considers the prevalence and diversity of 15 enteric pathogens in suspected cholera cases seeking treatment at the Uvira CTC. METHODS: We used the Luminex xTAG® multiplex PCR to test for 15 enteric pathogens, including toxigenic strains of V. cholerae in rectal swabs preserved on Whatman FTA Elute cards. Results were interpreted on MAGPIX® and analyzed on the xTAG® Data Analysis Software. Prevalence of enteric pathogens were calculated and pathogen diversity was modelled with a Poisson regression. RESULTS: Among 269 enrolled CTC patients, PCR detected the presence of toxigenic Vibrio cholerae in 38% (103/269) of the patients, which were considered to be cholera cases. These strains were detected as the sole pathogen in 36% (37/103) of these cases. Almost half (45%) of all study participants carried multiple enteric pathogens (two or more). Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (36%) and Cryptosporidium (28%) were the other most common pathogens identified amongst all participants. No pathogen was detected in 16.4% of study participants. Mean number of pathogens was highest amongst boys and girls aged 1-15 years and lowest in women aged 16-81 years. Ninety-three percent of toxigenic V. cholerae strains detected by PCR were found in patients having tested positive for V. cholerae O1 by RDT. CONCLUSIONS: Our study supports previous results from DRC and other cholera endemic areas in sub-Sahara Africa with less than half of CTC admissions positive for cholera by PCR. More research is required to determine the causes of severe acute diarrhea in these low-resource, endemic areas to optimize treatment measures. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study is part of the impact evaluation study entitled: "Impact Evaluation of Urban Water Supply Improvements on Cholera and Other Diarrheal Diseases in Uvira, Democratic Republic of Congo" registered on 10 October 2016 at clinicaltrials.gov Identification number: NCT02928341 .

Risk score for predicting mortality including urine lipoarabinomannan detection in hospital inpatients with HIV-associated tuberculosis in sub-Saharan Africa: Derivation and external validation cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of and mortality from HIV-associated tuberculosis (HIV/TB) in hospital inpatients in Africa remains unacceptably high. Currently, there is a lack of tools to identify those at high risk of early mortality who may benefit from adjunctive interventions. We therefore aimed to develop and validate a simple clinical risk score to predict mortality in high-burden, low-resource settings. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A cohort of HIV-positive adults with laboratory-confirmed TB from the STAMP TB screening trial (Malawi and South Africa) was used to derive a clinical risk score using multivariable predictive modelling, considering factors at hospital admission (including urine lipoarabinomannan [LAM] detection) thought to be associated with 2-month mortality. Performance was evaluated internally and then externally validated using independent cohorts from 2 other studies (LAM-RCT and a Médecins Sans Frontières [MSF] cohort) from South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Tanzania, and Kenya. The derivation cohort included 315 patients enrolled from October 2015 and September 2017. Their median age was 36 years (IQR 30-43), 45.4% were female, median CD4 cell count at admission was 76 cells/µl (IQR 23-206), and 80.2% (210/262) of those who knew they were HIV-positive at hospital admission were taking antiretroviral therapy (ART). Two-month mortality was 30% (94/315), and mortality was associated with the following factors included in the score: age 55 years or older, male sex, being ART experienced, having severe anaemia (haemoglobin < 80 g/l), being unable to walk unaided, and having a positive urinary Determine TB LAM Ag test (Alere). The score identified patients with a 46.4% (95% CI 37.8%-55.2%) mortality risk in the high-risk group compared to 12.5% (95% CI 5.7%-25.4%) in the low-risk group (p < 0.001). The odds ratio (OR) for mortality was 6.1 (95% CI 2.4-15.2) in high-risk patients compared to low-risk patients (p < 0.001). Discrimination (c-statistic 0.70, 95% CI 0.63-0.76) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic, p = 0.78) were good in the derivation cohort, and similar in the external validation cohort (complete cases n = 372, c-statistic 0.68 [95% CI 0.61-0.74]). The validation cohort included 644 patients between January 2013 and August 2015. Median age was 36 years, 48.9% were female, and median CD4 count at admission was 61 (IQR 21-145). OR for mortality was 5.3 (95% CI 2.2-9.5) for high compared to low-risk patients (complete cases n = 372, p < 0.001). The score also predicted patients at higher risk of death both pre- and post-discharge. A simplified score (any 3 or more of the predictors) performed equally well. The main limitations of the scores were their imperfect accuracy, the need for access to urine LAM testing, modest study size, and not measuring all potential predictors of mortality (e.g., tuberculosis drug resistance). CONCLUSIONS: This risk score is capable of identifying patients who could benefit from enhanced clinical care, follow-up, and/or adjunctive interventions, although further prospective validation studies are necessary. Given the scale of HIV/TB morbidity and mortality in African hospitals, better prognostic tools along with interventions could contribute towards global targets to reduce tuberculosis mortality.

Rapid urine-based screening for tuberculosis in HIV-positive patients admitted to hospital in Africa (STAMP): a pragmatic, multicentre, parallel-group, double-blind, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Current diagnostics for HIV-associated tuberculosis are suboptimal, with missed diagnoses contributing to high hospital mortality and approximately 374 000 annual HIV-positive deaths globally. Urine-based assays have a good diagnostic yield; therefore, we aimed to assess whether urine-based screening in HIV-positive inpatients for tuberculosis improved outcomes. METHODS: We did a pragmatic, multicentre, double-blind, randomised controlled trial in two hospitals in Malawi and South Africa. We included HIV-positive medical inpatients aged 18 years or more who were not taking tuberculosis treatment. We randomly assigned patients (1:1), using a computer-generated list of random block size stratified by site, to either the standard-of-care or the intervention screening group, irrespective of symptoms or clinical presentation. Attending clinicians made decisions about care; and patients, clinicians, and the study team were masked to the group allocation. In both groups, sputum was tested using the Xpert MTB/RIF assay (Xpert; Cepheid, Sunnyvale, CA, USA). In the standard-of-care group, urine samples were not tested for tuberculosis. In the intervention group, urine was tested with the Alere Determine TB-LAM Ag (TB-LAM; Alere, Waltham, MA, USA), and Xpert assays. The primary outcome was all-cause 56-day mortality. Subgroup analyses for the primary outcome were prespecified based on baseline CD4 count, haemoglobin, clinical suspicion for tuberculosis; and by study site and calendar time. We used an intention-to-treat principle for our analyses. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN71603869. FINDINGS: Between Oct 26, 2015, and Sept 19, 2017, we screened 4788 HIV-positive adults, of which 2600 (54%) were randomly assigned to the study groups (n=1300 for each group). 13 patients were excluded after randomisation from analysis in each group, leaving 2574 in the final intention-to-treat analysis (n=1287 in each group). At admission, 1861 patients were taking antiretroviral therapy and median CD4 count was 227 cells per µL (IQR 79-436). Mortality at 56 days was reported for 272 (21%) of 1287 patients in the standard-of-care group and 235 (18%) of 1287 in the intervention group (adjusted risk reduction [aRD] -2·8%, 95% CI -5·8 to 0·3; p=0·074). In three of the 12 prespecified, but underpowered subgroups, mortality was lower in the intervention group than in the standard-of-care group for CD4 counts less than 100 cells per µL (aRD -7·1%, 95% CI -13·7 to -0·4; p=0.036), severe anaemia (-9·0%, -16·6 to -1·3; p=0·021), and patients with clinically suspected tuberculosis (-5·7%, -10·9 to -0·5; p=0·033); with no difference by site or calendar period. Adverse events were similar in both groups. INTERPRETATION: Urine-based tuberculosis screening did not reduce overall mortality in all HIV-positive inpatients, but might benefit some high-risk subgroups. Implementation could contribute towards global targets to reduce tuberculosis mortality. FUNDING: Joint Global Health Trials Scheme of the Medical Research Council, the UK Department for International Development, and the Wellcome Trust.

Accuracy of diabetes screening methods used for people with tuberculosis, Indonesia, Peru, Romania, South Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of diagnostic tools for diabetes mellitus, including laboratory methods and clinical risk scores, in newly-diagnosed pulmonary tuberculosis patients from four middle-income countries. METHODS: In a multicentre, prospective study, we recruited 2185 patients with pulmonary tuberculosis from sites in Indonesia, Peru, Romania and South Africa from January 2014 to September 2016. Using laboratory-measured glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) as the gold standard, we measured the diagnostic accuracy of random plasma glucose, point-of-care HbA1c, fasting blood glucose, urine dipstick, published and newly derived diabetes mellitus risk scores and anthropometric measurements. We also analysed combinations of tests, including a two-step test using point-of-care HbA1cwhen initial random plasma glucose was ≥ 6.1 mmol/L. FINDINGS: The overall crude prevalence of diabetes mellitus among newly diagnosed tuberculosis patients was 283/2185 (13.0%; 95% confidence interval, CI: 11.6-14.4). The marker with the best diagnostic accuracy was point-of-care HbA1c (area under receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.75-0.86). A risk score derived using age, point-of-care HbA1c and random plasma glucose had the best overall diagnostic accuracy (area under curve: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.81-0.90). There was substantial heterogeneity between sites for all markers, but the two-step combination test performed well in Indonesia and Peru. CONCLUSION: Random plasma glucose followed by point-of-care HbA1c testing can accurately diagnose diabetes in tuberculosis patients, particularly those with substantial hyperglycaemia, while reducing the need for more expensive point-of-care HbA1c testing. Risk scores with or without biochemical data may be useful but require validation.

Hepatitis C seroconversions in HIV infection across Europe: which regions and patient groups are affected?

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In the last decade, several outbreaks of sexually acquired acute hepatitis C (HCV) infection have been described in HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM). The aims of this study were to determine whether there has been an increase in the number of acute HCV infections in different parts of Europe. METHODS: HCV seroconversion was defined as an HCV-antibody test change from negative to positive within the observation period in EuroSIDA. Binomial regression was performed to determine factors associated with being tested for HCV and HCV seroconversion. RESULTS: A total of 223 HCV seroconversions were observed from 16,188 tests [1.38% (95%CI 1.20-1.56)] among 5736 patients between 2002 and 2013. Overall the odds of acquiring HCV infection increased by 4% per year (OR 1.04 [95%CI 0.99-1.09]; P = 0.10). Overall 63.2% (141/223) of all seroconversions were seen among MSM. Similar patterns were observed across all European regions (P = 0.69, test for interaction) and HIV transmission risks groups (P = 0.69, test for interaction). In multivariate analysis, North, South and East Europe had higher odds of HCV seroconversion compared with Western Europe [OR 1.90 (1.28-2.81), 1.55 (0.99-2.45) and 1.86 (1.21-2.84); P = 0.0014, P = 0.058 and P = 0.0044 respectively]. CONCLUSIONS: Within EuroSIDA a significant increase in HCV seroconversions can be observed after accounting for increased levels of testing for HCV in recent years. This highlights the need for increased HCV prevention efforts among HIV-positive persons in Europe.

Short- and long-term mortality and causes of death in HIV/tuberculosis patients in Europe.

Mortality of HIV/tuberculosis (TB) patients in Eastern Europe is high. Little is known about their causes of death. This study aimed to assess and compare mortality rates and cause of death in HIV/TB patients across Eastern Europe and Western Europe and Argentina (WEA) in an international cohort study. Mortality rates and causes of death were analysed by time from TB diagnosis (<3 months, 3-12 months or >12 months) in 1078 consecutive HIV/TB patients. Factors associated with TB-related death were examined in multivariate Poisson regression analysis. 347 patients died during 2625 person-years of follow-up. Mortality in Eastern Europe was three- to ninefold higher than in WEA. TB was the main cause of death in Eastern Europe in 80%, 66% and 61% of patients who died <3 months, 3-12 months or >12 months after TB diagnosis, compared to 50%, 0% and 15% in the same time periods in WEA (p<0.0001). In multivariate analysis, follow-up in WEA (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.12, 95% CI 0.04-0.35), standard TB-treatment (IRR 0.45, 95% CI 0.20-0.99) and antiretroviral therapy (IRR 0.32, 95% CI 0.14-0.77) were associated with reduced risk of TB-related death. Persistently higher mortality rates were observed in HIV/TB patients in Eastern Europe, and TB was the dominant cause of death at any time during follow-up. This has important implications for HIV/TB programmes aiming to optimise the management of HIV/TB patients and limit TB-associated mortality in this region.

Does hepatitis C viremia or genotype predict the risk of mortality in individuals co-infected with HIV?

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The influence of HCV-RNA levels and genotype on HCV disease progression is not well studied. The prognostic value of these markers was investigated in HIV/HCV co-infected individuals from the EuroSIDA cohort. METHODS: EuroSIDA is a prospective cohort of 18,295 HIV-1 infected patients in 105 centres across Europe, Israel, and Argentina. All subjects with known HCV antibody (HCVAb) status (n=13,025) were enrolled in the present study. RESULTS: 4044 (31.0%) patients had detectable HCVAb. After adjustment, HCVAb+ patients had an increased incidence of liver-related death (LRD) compared to HCVAb- individuals (IRR 8.90; 95% CI 5.60-14.14, p<0.0001). Information on HCV-RNA was available for 2709 (67.0%) HCVAb+ patients and 2010 (74.2%) were HCV-RNA+. Of 1907 patients with measured HCV genotype, 1008 (52.9%), 62 (3.3%), 567 (29.7%), and 270 (14.2%) were infected with genotype 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. Patients with detectable HCV-RNA had similar incidence of non-LRD, but higher incidence of LRD compared to HCVAb+ aviremic patients (adjusted IRR 1.18; 95% CI 0.93-1.50, p=0.17) and (adjusted IRR 2.11; 95% CI 1.30-3.42, p=0.0025), respectively. In patients with HCV viremia, HCV-RNA levels and HCV genotype did not influence the risk of non-LRD or LRD. CONCLUSIONS: HCV seropositive HIV patients had a 9-fold increased risk of LRD compared to patients who were HCV seronegative. Risk of death from any cause or LRD was not influenced by level of HCV viremia or HCV genotype.

Four-Month High-Dose Rifampicin Regimens for Pulmonary Tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: Shorter but effective tuberculosis treatment regimens would be of value to the tuberculosis treatment community. High-dose rifampicin has been associated with more rapid and secure lung sterilization and may enable shorter tuberculosis treatment regimens. METHODS: We randomly assigned adults who were given a diagnosis of rifampicin-susceptible pulmonary tuberculosis to a 6-month control regimen, a similar 4-month regimen of rifampicin at 1200 mg/d (study regimen 1 [SR1]), or a 4-month regimen of rifampicin at 1800 mg/d (study regimen 2 [SR2]). Sputum specimens were collected at regular intervals. The primary end point was a composite of treatment failure and relapse in participants who were sputum smear positive at baseline. The noninferiority margin was 8 percentage points. Using a sequence of ordered hypotheses, noninferiority of SR2 was tested first. RESULTS: Between January 2017 and December 2020, 672 patients were enrolled in six countries, including 191 in the control group, 192 in the SR1 group, and 195 in the SR2 group. Noninferiority was not shown. Favorable responses rates were 93, 90, and 87% in the control, SR1, and SR2 groups, respectively, for a country-adjusted absolute risk difference of 6.3 percentage points (90% confidence interval, 1.1 to 11.5) comparing SR2 with the control group. The proportions of participants experiencing a grade 3 or 4 adverse event were 4.0, 4.5, and 4.4% in the control, SR1, and SR2 groups, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Four-month high-dose rifampicin regimens did not have dose-limiting toxicities or side effects but failed to meet noninferiority criteria compared with the standard 6-month control regimen for treatment of pulmonary tuberculosis. (Funded by the MRC/Wellcome Trust/DFID Joint Global Health Trials Scheme; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02581527.)

Association between household composition and severe COVID-19 outcomes in older people by ethnicity: an observational cohort study using the OpenSAFELY platform.

BACKGROUND: Ethnic differences in the risk of severe COVID-19 may be linked to household composition. We quantified the association between household composition and risk of severe COVID-19 by ethnicity for older individuals. METHODS: With the approval of NHS England, we analysed ethnic differences in the association between household composition and severe COVID-19 in people aged 67 or over in England. We defined households by number of age-based generations living together, and used multivariable Cox regression stratified by location and wave of the pandemic and accounted for age, sex, comorbidities, smoking, obesity, housing density and deprivation. We included 2 692 223 people over 67 years in Wave 1 (1 February 2020-31 August 2020) and 2 731 427 in Wave 2 (1 September 2020-31 January 2021). RESULTS: Multigenerational living was associated with increased risk of severe COVID-19 for White and South Asian older people in both waves [e.g. Wave 2, 67+ living with three other generations vs 67+-year-olds only: White hazard ratio (HR) 1.61 95% CI 1.38-1.87, South Asian HR 1.76 95% CI 1.48-2.10], with a trend for increased risks of severe COVID-19 with increasing generations in Wave 2. There was also an increased risk of severe COVID-19 in Wave 1 associated with living alone for White (HR 1.35 95% CI 1.30-1.41), South Asian (HR 1.47 95% CI 1.18-1.84) and Other (HR 1.72 95% CI 0.99-2.97) ethnicities, an effect that persisted for White older people in Wave 2. CONCLUSIONS: Both multigenerational living and living alone were associated with severe COVID-19 in older adults. Older South Asian people are over-represented within multigenerational households in England, especially in the most deprived settings, whereas a substantial proportion of White older people live alone. The number of generations in a household, number of occupants, ethnicity and deprivation status are important considerations in the continued roll-out of COVID-19 vaccination and targeting of interventions for future pandemics.

Comparative effectiveness of ChAdOx1 versus BNT162b2 covid-19 vaccines in health and social care workers in England: cohort study using OpenSAFELY.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 mRNA (Pfizer-BioNTech) and the ChAdOx1 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) covid-19 vaccines against infection and covid-19 disease in health and social care workers. DESIGN: Cohort study, emulating a comparative effectiveness trial, on behalf of NHS England. SETTING: Linked primary care, hospital, and covid-19 surveillance records available within the OpenSAFELY-TPP research platform, covering a period when the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant was dominant. PARTICIPANTS: 317 341 health and social care workers vaccinated between 4 January and 28 February 2021, registered with a general practice using the TPP SystmOne clinical information system in England, and not clinically extremely vulnerable. INTERVENTIONS: Vaccination with either BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 administered as part of the national covid-19 vaccine roll-out. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Recorded SARS-CoV-2 positive test, or covid-19 related attendance at an accident and emergency (A&E) department or hospital admission occurring within 20 weeks of receipt of the first vaccine dose. RESULTS: Over the duration of 118 771 person-years of follow-up there were 6962 positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, 282 covid-19 related A&E attendances, and 166 covid-19 related hospital admissions. The cumulative incidence of each outcome was similar for both vaccines during the first 20 weeks after vaccination. The cumulative incidence of recorded SARS-CoV-2 infection 20 weeks after first-dose vaccination with BNT162b2 was 21.7 per 1000 people (95% confidence interval 20.9 to 22.4) and with ChAdOx1 was 23.7 (21.8 to 25.6), representing a difference of 2.04 per 1000 people (0.04 to 4.04). The difference in the cumulative incidence per 1000 people of covid-19 related A&E attendance at 20 weeks was 0.06 per 1000 people (95% CI -0.31 to 0.43). For covid-19 related hospital admission, this difference was 0.11 per 1000 people (-0.22 to 0.44). CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of healthcare workers where we would not anticipate vaccine type to be related to health status, we found no substantial differences in the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection or covid-19 disease up to 20 weeks after vaccination. Incidence dropped sharply at 3-4 weeks after vaccination, and there were few covid-19 related hospital attendance and admission events after this period. This is in line with expected onset of vaccine induced immunity and suggests strong protection against Alpha variant covid-19 disease for both vaccines in this relatively young and healthy population of healthcare workers.

Mortality among Care Home Residents in England during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational study of 4.3 million adults over the age of 65.

BACKGROUND: Residents in care homes have been severely impacted by COVID-19. We describe trends in the mortality risk among residents of care homes compared to private homes. METHODS: On behalf of NHS England we used OpenSAFELY-TPP to calculate monthly age-standardised risks of death due to all causes and COVID-19 among adults aged >=65 years between 1/2/2019 and 31/03/2021. Care home residents were identified using linkage to Care and Quality Commission data. FINDINGS: We included 4,340,648 people aged 65 years or older on the 1st of February 2019, 2.2% of whom were classified as residing in a care or nursing home. Age-standardised mortality risks were approximately 10 times higher among care home residents compared to those in private housing in February 2019: comparative mortality figure (CMF) = 10.59 (95%CI = 9.51, 11.81) among women, and 10.87 (9.93, 11.90) among men. By April 2020 these relative differences had increased to more than 17 times with CMFs of 17.57 (16.43, 18.79) among women and 18.17 (17.22, 19.17) among men. CMFs did not increase during the second wave, despite a rise in the absolute age-standardised COVID-19 mortality risks. INTERPRETATION: COVID-19 has had a disproportionate impact on the mortality of care home residents in England compared to older residents of private homes, but only in the first wave. This may be explained by a degree of acquired immunity, improved protective measures or changes in the underlying frailty of the populations. The care home population should be prioritised for measures aimed at controlling COVID-19. FUNDING: Medical Research Council MR/V015737/1.

Missed opportunities for tuberculosis investigation in a municipal hospital in Ghana: evidence from patient exit interviews.

BACKGROUND: We assessed coverage of symptom screening and sputum testing for tuberculosis (TB) in hospital outpatient clinics in Ghana. METHODS: In a cross-sectional study, we enrolled adults (≥18 years) exiting the clinics reporting ≥1 TB symptom (cough, fever, night sweats or weight loss). Participants reporting a cough ≥2 weeks or a cough of any duration plus ≥2 other TB symptoms (per national criteria) and those self-reporting HIV-positive status were asked to give sputum for testing with Xpert MTB/RIF. RESULTS: We enrolled 581 participants (median age 33 years [IQR: 24-48], 510/581 [87.8%] female). The most common symptoms were fever (348, 59.9%), chest pain (282, 48.5%) and cough (270, 46.5%). 386/581 participants (66.4%) reported symptoms to a healthcare worker, of which 157/386 (40.7%) were eligible for a sputum test per national criteria. Only 31/157 (19.7%) had a sputum test requested. Thirty-two additional participants gave sputum among 41 eligible based on positive HIV status. In multivariable analysis, symptom duration ≥2 weeks (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 6.99, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.08-23.51) and previous TB treatment (aOR: 6.25, 95% CI: 2.24-17.48) were the strongest predictors of having a sputum test requested. 6/189 (3.2%) sputum samples had a positive Xpert MTB/RIF result. CONCLUSION: Opportunities for early identification of people with TB are being missed in health facilities in Ghana.