Characterization of HOXB13 expression patterns in localized and metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer.

HOXB13 is a key lineage homeobox transcription factor that plays a critical role in the differentiation of the prostate gland. Several studies have suggested that HOXB13 alterations may be involved in prostate cancer development and progression. Despite its potential biological relevance, little is known about the expression of HOXB13 across the disease spectrum of prostate cancer. To this end, we validated a HOXB13 antibody using genetic controls and investigated HOXB13 protein expression in murine and human developing prostates, localized prostate cancers, and metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancers. We observed that HOXB13 expression increases during later stages of murine prostate development. All localized prostate cancers showed HOXB13 protein expression. Interestingly, lower HOXB13 expression levels were observed in higher-grade tumors, although no significant association between HOXB13 expression and recurrence or disease-specific survival was found. In advanced metastatic prostate cancers, HOXB13 expression was retained in the majority of tumors. While we observed lower levels of HOXB13 protein and mRNA levels in tumors with evidence of lineage plasticity, 84% of androgen receptor-negative castration-resistant prostate cancers and neuroendocrine prostate cancers (NEPCs) retained detectable levels of HOXB13. Notably, the reduced expression observed in NEPCs was associated with a gain of HOXB13 gene body CpG methylation. In comparison to the commonly used prostate lineage marker NKX3.1, HOXB13 showed greater sensitivity in detecting advanced metastatic prostate cancers. Additionally, in a cohort of 837 patients, 383 with prostatic and 454 with non-prostatic tumors, we found that HOXB13 immunohistochemistry had a 97% sensitivity and 99% specificity for prostatic origin. Taken together, our studies provide valuable insight into the expression pattern of HOXB13 during prostate development and cancer progression. Furthermore, our findings support the utility of HOXB13 as a diagnostic biomarker for prostate cancer, particularly to confirm the prostatic origin of advanced metastatic castration-resistant tumors. © 2023 The Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland.

Lifetime Health and Economic Outcomes of Biparametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging as First-Line Screening for Prostate Cancer : A Decision Model Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Contemporary prostate cancer (PCa) screening uses first-line prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing, possibly followed by multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) for men with elevated PSA levels. First-line biparametric MRI (bpMRI) screening has been proposed as an alternative. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of first-line bpMRI versus PSA-based screening. DESIGN: Decision analysis using a microsimulation model. DATA SOURCES: Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database; randomized trials. TARGET POPULATION: U.S. men aged 55 years with no prior screening or PCa diagnosis. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: U.S. health care system. INTERVENTION: Biennial screening to age 69 years using first-line PSA testing (test-positive threshold, 4 µg/L) with or without second-line mpMRI or first-line bpMRI (test-positive threshold, PI-RADS [Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System] 3 to 5 or 4 to 5), followed by biopsy guided by MRI or MRI plus transrectal ultrasonography. OUTCOME MEASURES: Screening tests, biopsies, diagnoses, overdiagnoses, treatments, PCa deaths, quality-adjusted and unadjusted life-years saved, and costs. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: For 1000 men, first-line bpMRI versus first-line PSA testing prevented 2 to 3 PCa deaths and added 10 to 30 life-years (4 to 11 days per person) but increased the number of biopsies by 1506 to 4174 and the number of overdiagnoses by 38 to 124 depending on the biopsy imaging scheme. At conventional cost-effectiveness thresholds, first-line PSA testing with mpMRI followed by either biopsy approach for PI-RADS 4 to 5 produced the greatest net monetary benefits. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: First-line PSA testing remained more cost-effective even if bpMRI was free, all men with low-risk PCa underwent surveillance, or screening was quadrennial. LIMITATION: Performance of first-line bpMRI was based on second-line mpMRI data. CONCLUSION: Decision analysis suggests that comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of PCa screening are driven by false-positive results and overdiagnoses, favoring first-line PSA testing with mpMRI over first-line bpMRI. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Cancer Institute.

Benefits and harms of prostate specific antigen testing according to Australian guidelines.

Guidelines for prostate specific antigen (PSA) testing in Australia recommend that men at average risk of prostate cancer who have been informed of the benefits and harms, and who decide to undergo regular testing, should be offered testing every 2 years from 50 to 69 years. This study aimed to estimate the benefits and harms of regular testing in this context. We constructed Policy1-Prostate, a discrete event microsimulation platform of the natural history of prostate cancer and prostate cancer survival, and PSA testing patterns and subsequent management in Australia. The model was calibrated to pre-PSA (before 1985) prostate cancer incidence and mortality and validated against incidence and mortality trends from 1985 to 2011 and international trials. The model predictions were concordant with trials and Australian observed incidence and mortality data from 1985 to 2011. Out of 1000 men who choose to test according to the guidelines, 36 [21-41] men will die from prostate cancer and 126 [119-133] men will be diagnosed with prostate cancer, compared with 50 [47-54] and 94 [90-98] men who do not test, respectively. During the 20 years of active PSA testing, 32.3% [25.6%-38.8%] of all PSA-test detected cancers are overdiagnosed cases that is, 30 [21-42] out of 94 [83-107] PSA-test detected cancers. Australian men choosing to test with PSA every two years from 50 to 69 will reduce their risk of ever dying from prostate cancer and incur a risk of overdiagnosis: for every man who avoids dying from prostate cancer, two will be overdiagnosed with prostate cancer between 50 and 69 years of age. Australian men, with health professionals, can use these results to inform decision-making about PSA testing.

The Prostate Cancer Active Lifestyle Study (PALS): A randomized controlled trial of diet and exercise in overweight and obese men on active surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Active surveillance (AS) is increasingly used to monitor patients with lower risk prostate cancer (PCa). The Prostate Cancer Active Lifestyle Study (PALS) was a randomized controlled trial to determine whether weight loss improves obesity biomarkers on the causal pathway to progression in patients with PCa on AS. METHODS: Overweight/obese men (body mass index >25 kg/m2) diagnosed with PCa who elected AS were recruited. The intervention was a 6-month, individually delivered, structured diet and exercise program adapted from the Diabetes Prevention Program with a 7% weight loss goal from baseline. Control participants attended one session reviewing the US Dietary and Physical Activity Guidelines. The primary outcome was change in glucose regulation from baseline to the end of the 6-month intervention, which was measured by fasting plasma glucose, C-peptide, insulin, insulin-like growth factor 1, insulin-like growth factor binding protein-3, adiponectin, and homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance. RESULTS: Among 117 men who were randomized, 100 completed the trial. The mean percentage weight loss was 7.1% and 1.8% in the intervention and control arms, respectively (adjusted between-group mean difference, -6.0 kg; 95% confidence interval, -8.0, -4.0). Mean percentage changes from baseline for insulin, C-peptide, and homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance in the intervention arm were -23%, -16%, and -25%, respectively, compared with +6.9%, +7.5%, and +6.4%, respectively, in the control arm (all p for intervention effects ≤ .003). No significant between-arm differences were detected for the other biomarkers. CONCLUSIONS: Overweight/obese men with PCa undergoing AS who participated in a lifestyle-based weight loss intervention successfully met weight loss goals with this reproducible lifestyle intervention and experienced improvements in glucose-regulation biomarkers associated with PCa progression.

Pathological Effects of Apalutamide in Lower-risk Prostate Cancer: Results From a Phase II Clinical Trial.

PURPOSE: Active surveillance is a safe and effective strategy for men with lower-risk prostate cancer who want to avoid local therapy; however, many patients on active surveillance progress to active treatment (eg, prostatectomy or radiation). We hypothesized that apalutamide would decrease active surveillance attrition rates through downstaging low-grade tumors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was an open-label, single-arm, phase II study testing 90 days of oral apalutamide 240 mg daily in men with low- to intermediate-risk prostate cancer on active surveillance. The primary objective was to determine the percentage of patients with a negative biopsy immediately following treatment. Secondary objectives were to assess long-term clinical outcomes, quality of life, safety, and biomarkers of response/resistance. RESULTS: Twenty-three patients enrolled and 22 completed 90 days of apalutamide with post-treatment biopsy. Fifteen (65%) had Grade Group 1 disease, and all others had Grade Group 2 disease. Seven (30%) had favorable- to intermediate-risk disease. Of 22 evaluable patients, 13 (59%) had no residual cancer on post-treatment biopsy. The median time to first positive biopsy was 364 days (95% CI: 91-742 days). The impact of apalutamide on quality of life was minimal and transient. Decipher risk classifier revealed a greater number of negative post-treatment biopsies in those with higher baseline genomic risk score (P = .01). CONCLUSIONS: The negative repeat biopsy rate following 90 days of apalutamide was high in men with prostate cancer followed on active surveillance. Apalutamide was safe, well tolerated, and had minimal impact on quality of life. Randomized studies evaluating the effects of apalutamide in men enrolled on active surveillance are warranted.

Clarifying the Trade-Offs of Risk-Stratified Screening for Prostate Cancer: A Cost-Effectiveness Study.

Cancer risk prediction is necessary for precision early detection, which matches screening intensity to risk. However, practical steps for translating risk predictions to risk-stratified screening policies are not well established. We used a validated population prostate-cancer model to simulate the outcomes of strategies that increase intensity for men at high risk and reduce intensity for men at low risk. We defined risk by the Prompt Prostate Genetic Score (PGS) (Stratify Genomics, San Diego, California), a germline genetic test. We first recalibrated the model to reflect the disease incidence observed within risk strata using data from a large prevention trial where some participants were tested with Prompt PGS. We then simulated risk-stratified strategies in a population with the same risk distribution as the trial and evaluated the cost-effectiveness of risk-stratified screening versus universal (risk-agnostic) screening. Prompt PGS risk-adapted screening was more cost-effective when universal screening was conservative. Risk-stratified strategies improved outcomes at a cost of less than $100,000 per quality-adjusted life year compared with biennial screening starting at age 55 years, but risk stratification was not cost-effective compared with biennial screening starting at age 45. Heterogeneity of risk and fraction of the population within each stratum were also important determinants of cost-effectiveness.

Efficacy of systemic therapies in men with metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer harboring germline ATM versus BRCA2 mutations.

BACKGROUND: Among men with metastatic prostate cancer, about 10% have germline alterations in DNA damage response genes. Most studies have examined BRCA2 alone or an aggregate of BRCA1/2 and ATM. Emerging data suggest that ATM mutations may have distinct biology and warrant individual evaluation. The objective of this study is to determine whether response to prostate cancer systemic therapies differs between men with germline mutations in ATM (gATM) and BRCA2 (gBRCA2). METHODS: This is an international multicenter retrospective matched cohort study of men with prostate cancer harboring gATM or gBRCA2. PSA50 response (≥50% decline in prostate-specific antigen) was compared using Fisher's exact test. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: The study included 45 gATM and 45 gBRCA2 patients, matched on stage and year of germline testing. Patients with gATM and gBRCA2 had similar age, Gleason grade, and PSA at diagnosis. We did not observe differences in PSA50 responses to abiraterone, enzalutamide, or docetaxel in metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer between the two groups; however, 0/7 with gATM and 12/14 with gBRCA2 achieved PSA50 response to PARPi (p < .001). Median (95% confidence interval) overall survival from diagnosis to death was 10.9 years (9.5-not reached) versus 9.9 years (7.1-not reached, p = .07) for the gATM and gBRCA2 cohorts, respectively. Limitations include the retrospective design and lack of mutation zygosity data. CONCLUSIONS: Conventional therapies can be effective in gATM carriers and should be considered before PARPi, which shows limited efficacy in this group. Men with gATM mutations warrant prioritization for novel treatment strategies.

Targeting backdoor androgen synthesis through AKR1C3 inhibition: A presurgical hormonal ablative neoadjuvant trial in high-risk localized prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: Localized prostate cancers (PCs) may resist neoadjuvant androgen receptor (AR)-targeted therapies as a result of persistent intraprostatic androgens arising through upregulation of steroidogenic enzymes. Therefore, we sought to evaluate clinical effects of neoadjuvant indomethacin (Indo), which inhibits the steroidogenic enzyme AKR1C3, in addition to combinatorial anti-androgen blockade, in men with high-risk PC undergoing radical prostatectomy (RP). METHODS: This was an open label, single-site, Phase II neoadjuvant trial in men with high to very-high-risk PC, as defined by NCCN criteria. Patients received 12 weeks of apalutamide (Apa), abiraterone acetate plus prednisone (AAP), degarelix, and Indo followed by RP. Primary objective was to determine the pathologic complete response (pCR) rate. Secondary objectives included minimal residual disease (MRD) rate, defined as residual cancer burden (RCB) ≤ 0.25cm3 (tumor volume multiplied by tumor cellularity) and elucidation of molecular features of resistance. RESULTS: Twenty patients were evaluable for the primary endpoint. Baseline median prostate-specific antigen (PSA) was 10.1 ng/ml, 4 (20%) patients had Gleason grade group (GG) 4 disease and 16 had GG 5 disease. At RP, 1 (5%) patient had pCR and 6 (30%) had MRD. Therapy was well tolerated. Over a median follow-up of 23.8 months, 1 of 7 (14%) men with pathologic response and 6 of 13 (46%) men without pathologic response had a PSA relapse. There was no association between prostate hormone levels or HSD3B1 genotype with pathologic response. CONCLUSIONS: In men with high-risk PC, pCR rates remained low even with combinatorial AR-directed therapy, although rates of MRD were higher. Ongoing follow-up is needed to validate clinical outcomes of men who achieve MRD.

Economic Evaluation of Urine-Based or Magnetic Resonance Imaging Reflex Tests in Men With Intermediate Prostate-Specific Antigen Levels in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: For men with intermediate prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels (4-10 ng/mL), urine-based biomarkers and multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are increasingly used as reflex tests before prostate biopsy. We assessed the cost effectiveness of these reflex tests in the United States. METHODS: We used an existing microsimulation model of prostate cancer (PCa) progression and survival to predict lifetime outcomes for a hypothetical cohort of 55-year-old men with intermediate PSA levels. Urine-based biomarkers-PCa antigen (PCA3), TMPRSS2:ERG gene fusion (T2:ERG), and the MyProstateScore (MPS) for any PCa and for high-grade (Gleason score ≥7) PCa (MPShg)-were generated using biomarker data from 1112 men presenting for biopsy at 10 United States institutions. MRI results were based on published sensitivity and specificity for high-grade PCa. Costs and utilities were sourced from literature and Medicare reimbursement schedules. Outcome measures included life years, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and lifetime medical costs per patient. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were empirically calculated on the basis of simulated life histories under different reflex testing strategies. RESULTS: Biopsying all men provided the most life years and QALYs, followed by reflex testing using MPShg, MPS, MRI, T2:ERG, PCA3, and biopsying no men (QALY range across strategies 15.98-16.09). Accounting for costs, MRI and MPShg were dominated by other strategies. PCA3, T2:ERG, and MPS were likely to be the most cost-effective strategy at willingness-to-pay thresholds of $100 000/QALY, $125 000/QALY, and $150 000/QALY, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Using PCA3, T2:ERG, or MPS as reflex tests has greater economic value than MRI, biopsying all men, or biopsying no men with intermediate PSA levels.

Identification of the Fraction of Indolent Tumors and Associated Overdiagnosis in Breast Cancer Screening Trials.

It is generally accepted that some screen-detected breast cancers are overdiagnosed and would not progress to symptomatic cancer if left untreated. However, precise estimates of the fraction of nonprogressive cancers remain elusive. In recognition of the weaknesses of overdiagnosis estimation methods based on excess incidence, there is a need for model-based approaches that accommodate nonprogressive lesions. Here, we present an in-depth analysis of a generalized model of breast cancer natural history that allows for a mixture of progressive and indolent lesions. We provide a formal proof of global structural identifiability of the model and use simulation to identify conditions that allow for parameter estimates that are sufficiently precise and practically actionable. We show that clinical follow-up after the last screening can play a critical role in ensuring adequately precise identification of the fraction of indolent cancers in a stop-screen trial design, and we demonstrate that model misspecification can lead to substantially biased estimates of mean sojourn time. Finally, we illustrate our findings using the example of Canadian National Breast Screening Study 2 (1980-1985) and show that the fraction of indolent cancers is not precisely identifiable. Our findings provide the foundation for extended models that account for both in situ and invasive lesions.

Clinical determinants for successful circulating tumor DNA analysis in prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: Plasma-based cell-free DNA is an attractive biospecimen for assessing somatic mutations due to minimally-invasive real-time sampling. However, next generation sequencing (NGS) of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) may not be appropriate for all patients with advanced prostate cancer (PC). METHODS: Blood was obtained from advanced PC patients for plasma-based sequencing. UW-OncoPlex, a ∼2 Mb multi-gene NGS panel performed in the CLIA/CAP environment, was optimized for detecting cfDNA mutations. Tumor tissue and germline samples were sequenced for comparative analyses. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to determine the clinical characteristic associated with the successful detection of somatic cfDNA alterations (ie detection of at least one clearly somatic PC mutation). RESULTS: Plasma for cfDNA sequencing was obtained from 93 PC patients along with tumor tissue (N = 67) and germline (N = 93) controls. We included data from 76 patients (72 prostate adenocarcinoma; 4 variant histology PC) in the analysis. Somatic DNA aberrations were detected in 34 cfDNA samples from patients with prostate adenocarcinoma. High PSA level, high tumor volume, and castration-resistance were significantly associated with successful detection of somatic cfDNA alterations. Among samples with somatic mutations detected, the cfDNA assay detected 93/102 (91%) alterations found in tumor tissue, yielding a clustering-corrected sensitivity of 92% (95% confidence interval 88-97%). All germline pathogenic variants present in lymphocyte DNA were also detected in cfDNA (N = 12). Somatic mutations from cfDNA were detected in 30/33 (93%) instances when PSA was >10 ng/mL. CONCLUSIONS: Disease burden, including a PSA >10 ng/mL, is strongly associated with detecting somatic mutations from cfDNA specimens.

Inherited DNA-Repair Gene Mutations in Men with Metastatic Prostate Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Inherited mutations in DNA-repair genes such as BRCA2 are associated with increased risks of lethal prostate cancer. Although the prevalence of germline mutations in DNA-repair genes among men with localized prostate cancer who are unselected for family predisposition is insufficient to warrant routine testing, the frequency of such mutations in patients with metastatic prostate cancer has not been established. METHODS: We recruited 692 men with documented metastatic prostate cancer who were unselected for family history of cancer or age at diagnosis. We isolated germline DNA and used multiplex sequencing assays to assess mutations in 20 DNA-repair genes associated with autosomal dominant cancer-predisposition syndromes. RESULTS: A total of 84 germline DNA-repair gene mutations that were presumed to be deleterious were identified in 82 men (11.8%); mutations were found in 16 genes, including BRCA2 (37 men [5.3%]), ATM (11 [1.6%]), CHEK2 (10 [1.9% of 534 men with data]), BRCA1 (6 [0.9%]), RAD51D (3 [0.4%]), and PALB2 (3 [0.4%]). Mutation frequencies did not differ according to whether a family history of prostate cancer was present or according to age at diagnosis. Overall, the frequency of germline mutations in DNA-repair genes among men with metastatic prostate cancer significantly exceeded the prevalence of 4.6% among 499 men with localized prostate cancer (P<0.001), including men with high-risk disease, and the prevalence of 2.7% in the Exome Aggregation Consortium, which includes 53,105 persons without a known cancer diagnosis (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In our multicenter study, the incidence of germline mutations in genes mediating DNA-repair processes among men with metastatic prostate cancer was 11.8%, which was significantly higher than the incidence among men with localized prostate cancer. The frequencies of germline mutations in DNA-repair genes among men with metastatic disease did not differ significantly according to age at diagnosis or family history of prostate cancer. (Funded by Stand Up To Cancer and others.).

Personalized Risks of Over Diagnosis for Screen Detected Prostate Cancer Incorporating Patient Comorbidities: Estimation and Communication.

PURPOSE: Shared patient-physician decision making regarding the treatment of prostate cancer detected by prostate specific antigen screening involves a complex calculus weighing cancer risk and patient life expectancy. We sought to quantify these competing risks using the probability that the cancer was over diagnosed, ie would not have been clinically diagnosed (diagnosed without screening) during the remaining lifetime of the patient. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using an established model of prostate cancer screening and clinical diagnosis we simulated screen detected cases and determined whether a modeled clinical diagnosis would occur before noncancer death. Time of noncancer death was based on comorbidity adjusted population lifetables. Logistic regression models were fitted to the simulated data and used to estimate over diagnosis probabilities given patient age, prostate specific antigen level, Gleason sum and comorbidity category. An online calculator was developed to communicate over diagnosis estimates. Face validity and ease of use were assessed by surveying 32 clinical experts. RESULTS: Estimated probabilities of over diagnosis ranged from 4% to 78% across clinicopathological variables and comorbidity status. When ignoring comorbidity, the estimated probability of over diagnosis in a 70-year-old man with prostate specific antigen 9.4 ng/ml and Gleason 6 was 34%. With severe comorbidities the estimate increased to 51%. Such a personalization may help inform the choice between active surveillance and definitive treatment. Based on responses from 20 of 32 experts we modified the explanation of over diagnosis for the online calculator and the input method for comorbid conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The probability of over diagnosis is strongly influenced by comorbidity status in addition to age. Personalized estimates incorporating comorbidity may contribute to shared decision making between patients and providers regarding personalized treatment selection.

Comparative Analysis of Biopsy Upgrading in Four Prostate Cancer Active Surveillance Cohorts.

Background: Active surveillance (AS) is increasingly accepted for managing low-risk prostate cancer, yet there is no consensus about implementation. This lack of consensus is due in part to uncertainty about risks for disease progression, which have not been systematically compared or integrated across AS studies with variable surveillance protocols and dropout to active treatment. Objective: To compare risks for upgrading from a Gleason score (GS) of 6 or less to 7 or more across AS studies after accounting for differences in surveillance intervals and competing treatments and to evaluate tradeoffs of more versus less frequent biopsies. Design: Joint statistical model of longitudinal prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels and risks for biopsy upgrading. Setting: Johns Hopkins University (JHU); Canary Prostate Active Surveillance Study (PASS); University of California, San Francisco (UCSF); and University of Toronto (UT) AS studies. Patients: 2576 men aged 40 to 80 years with a GS between 2 and 6 and clinical stage T1 or T2 prostate cancer enrolled between 1995 and 2014. Measurements: PSA levels and biopsy GSs. Results: After variable surveillance intervals and competing treatments were accounted for, estimated risks for biopsy upgrading were similar in the PASS and UT studies but higher in UCSF and lower in JHU studies. All cohorts had a delay of 3 to 5 months in detecting upgrading with biennial biopsies starting after a first confirmatory biopsy versus annual biopsies. Limitation: The model does not account for possible misclassification of biopsy GS. Conclusion: Men in different AS studies have different risks for biopsy upgrading after variable surveillance protocols and competing treatments are accounted for. Despite these differences, the consequences of more versus less frequent biopsies seem to be similar across cohorts. Biennial biopsies seem to be an acceptable alternative to annual biopsies. Primary Funding Source: National Cancer Institute.

Undetectable prostate-specific antigen after short-course androgen deprivation therapy for biochemically recurrent patients correlates with metastasis-free survival and prostate cancer-specific survival.

BACKGROUND: Optimal utilization of novel therapies for advanced prostate cancer is challenging without a validated surrogate efficacy endpoint. Ongoing trials are using durable undetectable prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels as a marker of efficacy. The clinical relevance of prolonged undetectable PSA after a short course of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) is uncertain. METHODS: The University of Washington Caisis database was queried for radical prostatectomy patients who received 6-12 months of ADT after biochemical recurrence (BCR), defined as PSA ≥0.2 ng/mL and no radiographically detectable metastasis. Proportions of men with undetectable PSA 12 and 24 months after ending ADT were compared to a hypothesized 5% rate using exact binomial tests. Associations with patient and tumor characteristics were examined using logistic regression, and associations with risk of subsequent metastasis and death were evaluated by log-rank tests. RESULTS: After ineligibility exclusions, 23/93 (25%; 95%CI 16-35%; P < 0.001) and 14/93 (15%; 95%CI 9-24%; P < 0.001) had undetectable PSA 12 and 24 months after ending ADT, respectively. Detectable PSA at 12 months was associated with increased risk of metastasis (P = 0.006), prostate cancer-specific death (P = 0.028), and death from any cause (P = 0.065). Being 1 year older at diagnosis was associated with a 14% (95%CI 5-24%; P = 0.006) decrease in the odds of having a detectable PSA after controlling for PSA at diagnosis, PSA doubling time, grade group, and time from initial therapy to BCR. CONCLUSIONS: This single-institution retrospective analysis shows that it is not uncommon to have undetectable PSA 12 or 24 months after a short course of ADT. No baseline prognostic characteristic other than age was associated with a durable (12 month) undetectable PSA. Because a durable undetectable PSA was associated with lower risks of metastasis and prostate cancer-specific death, it may be a reasonable clinical trial endpoint.

Racial disparities in prostate cancer survival in a screened population: Reality versus artifact.

BACKGROUND: Racial disparities in prostate cancer survival (PCS) narrowed during the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) era, suggesting that screening may induce more equitable outcomes. However, the effects of lead time and overdiagnosis can inflate survival even without real screening benefit. METHODS: A simulation model of PCS in the early PSA era (1991-2000) was created. The modeled survival started with baseline survival in the pre-PSA era (1975-1990) and added lead times and overdiagnosis using estimates from published studies. The authors quantified 1) discrepancies between modeled and observed PCS in the PSA era and 2) residual period effects on PCS given specified values for screening benefit. RESULTS: Lead time and overdiagnosis explained more of the improvement in PCS for older ages at diagnosis (46% [95% confidence interval (CI), 44%-50%] for blacks and 51% [95% CI, 50%-52%] for all races ages 50-54 years vs 98% [95% CI, 97%-99%] for blacks and 100% for all races ages 75-79 years). They also explained more of the narrowing in PCS disparities for older ages (33% [95% CI, 31%-43%] for men ages 50-54 years vs 74% [95% CI, 71%-81%] for men ages 75-79 years). The period effects amounted to reductions of 27% to 40% among blacks and 26% to 38% among all races in the risk of prostate cancer death, depending on the screening benefit. CONCLUSIONS: Real improvements in survival disparities in the PSA era are smaller than those observed and reflect similar reductions in the risk of prostate cancer death among blacks and all races. Understanding screening artifacts is necessary for valid interpretation of observed survival trends. Cancer 2018;124:1752-9. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

The efficacy of prostate-specific antigen screening: Impact of key components in the ERSPC and PLCO trials.

BACKGROUND: The European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) demonstrated that prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening significantly reduced prostate cancer mortality (rate ratio, 0.79; 95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.91). The US Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) trial indicated no such reduction but had a wide 95% CI (rate ratio for prostate cancer mortality, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.87-1.36). Standard meta-analyses are unable to account for key differences between the trials that can impact the estimated effects of screening and the trials' point estimates. METHODS: The authors calibrated 2 microsimulation models to individual-level incidence and mortality data from 238,936 men participating in the ERSPC and PLCO trials. A cure parameter for the underlying efficacy of screening was estimated by the models separately for each trial. The authors changed step-by-step major known differences in trial settings, including enrollment and attendance patterns, screening intervals, PSA thresholds, biopsy receipt, control arm contamination, and primary treatment, to reflect a more ideal protocol situation and differences between the trials. RESULTS: Using the cure parameter estimated for the ERSPC, the models projected 19% to 21% and 6% to 8%, respectively, prostate cancer mortality reductions in the ERSPC and PLCO settings. Using this cure parameter, the models projected a reduction of 37% to 43% under annual screening with 100% attendance and biopsy compliance and no contamination. The cure parameter estimated for the PLCO trial was 0. CONCLUSIONS: The observed cancer mortality reduction in screening trials appears to be highly sensitive to trial protocol and practice settings. Accounting for these differences, the efficacy of PSA screening in the PLCO setting is not necessarily inconsistent with ERSPC results. Cancer 2018;124:1197-206. © 2017 American Cancer Society.