Position Paper on the Reporting of Norepinephrine Formulations in Critical Care from the Society of Critical Care Medicine and European Society of Intensive Care Medicine Joint Task Force.

OBJECTIVES: To provide guidance on the reporting of norepinephrine formulation labeling, reporting in publications, and use in clinical practice. DESIGN: Review and task force position statements with necessary guidance. SETTING: A series of group conference calls were conducted from August 2023 to October 2023, along with a review of the available evidence and scope of the problem. SUBJECTS: A task force of multinational and multidisciplinary critical care experts assembled by the Society of Critical Care Medicine and the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine. INTERVENTIONS: The implications of a variation in norepinephrine labeled as conjugated salt (i.e., bitartrate or tartrate) or base drug in terms of effective concentration of norepinephrine were examined, and guidance was provided. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: There were significant implications for clinical care, dose calculations for enrollment in clinical trials, and results of datasets reporting maximal norepinephrine equivalents. These differences were especially important in the setting of collaborative efforts across countries with reported differences. CONCLUSIONS: A joint task force position statement was created outlining the scope of norepinephrine-dose formulation variations, and implications for research, patient safety, and clinical care. The task force advocated for a uniform norepinephrine-base formulation for global use, and offered advice aimed at appropriate stakeholders.

Use of inotropic agents in advanced heart failure: pros and cons.

BACKGROUND: Use of inotropic agents in advanced heart failure (HF) has over time been evaluated in several randomized, controlled clinical trials (RCTs). However, the evidence for both efficacy and safety is conflicting. SUMMARY: In this narrative review, the evidence for and role of inotropes in advanced HF are outlined. Readers are provided with a comprehensive overview of key-findings from 23 important RCTs comparing orally or intravenously administered inotropes. Clinically relevant pros and cons of inotropic regimens are summarized to guide the clinician in the management of advanced HF patients in different settings (e.g., out-patient, in-patient, and intensive care unit). Finally, future perspectives and potential new agents are discussed. KEY MESSAGES: Long-term use of inotropes in advanced HF is controversial and should only be considered in selected patients (e.g., as palliative or bridging strategy). However, short-term use continues to play a large role in hospitalized patients with cardiogenic shock or severe decompensated acute HF.

Glucose evaluation and management in the ICU (GEM-ICU): Protocol for a bi-centre cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Hyperglycaemia is common in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Glycaemic monitoring and effective glycaemic control with insulin are crucial in the ICU to improve patient outcomes. However, glycaemic control and insulin use vary between ICU patients and hypo- and hyperglycaemia occurs. Therefore, we aim to provide contemporary data on glycaemic control and management, and associated outcomes, in adult ICU patients. We hypothesise that the occurrence of hypoglycaemia in acutely admitted ICU patients is lower than that of hyperglycaemia. METHODS: We will conduct a bi-centre cohort study of 300 acutely admitted adult ICU patients. Routine data will be collected retrospectively at baseline (ICU admission) and daily during ICU stay up to a maximum of 30 days. The primary outcome will be the number of patients with hypoglycaemia during their ICU stay. Secondary outcomes will be occurrence of severe hypoglycaemia, occurrence of hyperglycaemia, time below blood glucose target range, time above target range, all-cause mortality at Day 30, number of days alive without life support at Day 30 and number of days alive and out of hospital at Day 30. Process outcomes include the number of in-ICU days, glucose measurements (number of measurements and method) and use of insulin (including route of administration and dosage). All statistical analyses will be descriptive. CONCLUSIONS: This cohort study will provide a contemporary overview of glucose evaluation and management practices in adult ICU patients and, thus, highlight potential areas for improvement through future clinical trials in this area.

Health-related quality of life trajectories in critical illness: Protocol for a Monte Carlo simulation study.

BACKGROUND: Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is a patient-centred outcome increasingly used as a secondary outcome in critical care research. It may cover several important dimensions of clinical status in intensive care unit (ICU) patients that arguably elude other more easily quantified outcomes such as mortality. Poor associations with harder outcomes, conflicting data on HRQoL in critically ill compared to the background population, and paradoxical effects on HRQoL and mortality complicate the current operationalisation in critical care trials. This protocol outlines a simulation study that will gauge if the areas under the HRQoL trajectories could be a viable alternative. METHODS: We will gauge the behaviour of the proposed HRQoL operationalisation through Monte Carlo simulations, under clinical scenarios that reflect a broad critical care population eligible for inclusion in a large pragmatic trial. We will simulate 15,360 clinical scenarios based on a full factorial design with the following seven simulation parameters: number of patients per arm, relative mortality reduction in the interventional arm, acceleration of HRQoL improvement in the interventional arm, the relative improvement in final HRQoL in the interventional arm, dampening effect of mortality on HRQoL values at discharge from the ICU, proportion of so-called mortality benefiters in the interventional arm and mortality trajectory shape. For each clinical scenario, we will simulate 100,000 two-arm trials with 1:1 randomisation. HRQoL will be sampled fortnightly after ICU discharge. Outcomes will include HRQoL in survivors and all patients at the end of follow-up; mean areas under the HRQoL trajectories in both arms; and mean difference between areas under the HRQoL trajectories and single-sampled HRQoLs at the end of follow-up. DISCUSSION: In the outlined simulation study, we aim to assess whether the area under the HRQoL trajectory curve could be a candidate for reconciling the seemingly paradoxical effects on improved mortality and reduced HRQoL while remaining sensitive to early or accelerated improvement in patient outcomes. The resultant insights will inform subsequent methodological work on prudent collection and statistical analysis of such data from real critically ill patients.

Real-world causal evidence for planned predictive enrichment in critical care trials: A scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Randomised clinical trials in critical care are prone to inconclusiveness due, in part, to undue optimism about effect sizes and suboptimal accounting for heterogeneous treatment effects. Although causal evidence from rich real-world critical care can help overcome these challenges by informing predictive enrichment, no overview exists. METHODS: We conducted a scoping review, systematically searching 10 general and speciality journals for reports published on or after 1 January 2018, of randomised clinical trials enrolling adult critically ill patients. We collected trial metadata on 22 variables including recruitment period, intervention type and early stopping (including reasons) as well as data on the use of causal evidence from secondary data for planned predictive enrichment. RESULTS: We screened 9020 records and included 316 unique RCTs with a total of 268,563 randomised participants. One hundred seventy-three (55%) trials tested drug interventions, 101 (32%) management strategies and 42 (13%) devices. The median duration of enrolment was 2.2 (IQR: 1.3-3.4) years, and 83% of trials randomised less than 1000 participants. Thirty-six trials (11%) were restricted to COVID-19 patients. Of the 55 (17%) trials that stopped early, 23 (42%) used predefined rules; futility, slow enrolment and safety concerns were the commonest stopping reasons. None of the included RCTs had used causal evidence from secondary data for planned predictive enrichment. CONCLUSION: Work is needed to harness the rich multiverse of critical care data and establish its utility in critical care RCTs. Such work will likely need to leverage methodology from interventional and analytical epidemiology as well as data science.

Restrictive versus standard IV fluid therapy in adult ICU patients with septic shock-Bayesian analyses of the CLASSIC trial.

BACKGROUND: The CLASSIC trial assessed the effects of restrictive versus standard intravenous (IV) fluid therapy in adult intensive care unit (ICU) patients with septic shock. This pre-planned study provides a probabilistic interpretation and evaluates heterogeneity in treatment effects (HTE). METHODS: We analysed mortality, serious adverse events (SAEs), serious adverse reactions (SARs) and days alive without life-support within 90 days using Bayesian models with weakly informative priors. HTE on mortality was assessed according to five baseline variables: disease severity, vasopressor dose, lactate levels, creatinine values and IV fluid volumes given before randomisation. RESULTS: The absolute difference in mortality was 0.2%-points (95% credible interval: -5.0 to 5.4; 47% posterior probability of benefit [risk difference <0.0%-points]) with restrictive IV fluid. The posterior probabilities of benefits with restrictive IV fluid were 72% for SAEs, 52% for SARs and 61% for days alive without life-support. The posterior probabilities of no clinically important differences (absolute risk difference ≤2%-points) between the groups were 56% for mortality, 49% for SAEs, 90% for SARs and 38% for days alive without life-support. There was 97% probability of HTE for previous IV fluid volumes analysed continuously, that is, potentially relatively lower mortality of restrictive IV fluids with higher previous IV fluids. No substantial evidence of HTE was found in the other analyses. CONCLUSION: We could not rule out clinically important effects of restrictive IV fluid therapy on mortality, SAEs or days alive without life-support, but substantial effects on SARs were unlikely. IV fluids given before randomisation might interact with IV fluid strategy.

Effects of IV fluid restriction according to site-specific intensity of standard fluid treatment-protocol.

BACKGROUND: Variation in usual practice in fluid trials assessing lower versus higher volumes may affect overall comparisons. To address this, we will evaluate the effects of heterogeneity in treatment intensity in the Conservative versus Liberal Approach to Fluid Therapy of Septic Shock in Intensive Care trial. This will reflect the effects of differences in site-specific intensities of standard fluid treatment due to local practice preferences while considering participant characteristics. METHODS: We will assess the effects of heterogeneity in treatment intensity across one primary (all-cause mortality) and three secondary outcomes (serious adverse events or reactions, days alive without life support and days alive out of hospital) after 90 days. We will classify sites based on the site-specific intensity of standard fluid treatment, defined as the mean differences in observed versus predicted intravenous fluid volumes in the first 24 h in the standard-fluid group while accounting for differences in participant characteristics. Predictions will be made using a machine learning model including 22 baseline predictors using the extreme gradient boosting algorithm. Subsequently, sites will be grouped into fluid treatment intensity subgroups containing at least 100 participants each. Subgroups differences will be assessed using hierarchical Bayesian regression models with weakly informative priors. We will present the full posterior distributions of relative (risk ratios and ratios of means) and absolute differences (risk differences and mean differences) in each subgroup. DISCUSSION: This study will provide data on the effects of heterogeneity in treatment intensity while accounting for patient characteristics in critically ill adult patients with septic shock. REGISTRATIONS: The European Clinical Trials Database (EudraCT): 2018-000404-42, ClinicalTrials. gov: NCT03668236.

Empirical meropenem versus piperacillin/tazobactam for adult patients with sepsis (EMPRESS) trial: Protocol.

BACKGROUND: Piperacillin/tazobactam may be associated with less favourable outcomes than carbapenems in patients with severe bacterial infections, but the certainty of evidence is low. METHODS: The Empirical Meropenem versus Piperacillin/Tazobactam for Adult Patients with Sepsis (EMPRESS) trial is an investigator-initiated, international, parallel-group, randomised, open-label, adaptive clinical trial with an integrated feasibility phase. We will randomise adult, critically ill patients with sepsis to empirical treatment with meropenem or piperacillin/tazobactam for up to 30 days. The primary outcome is 30-day all-cause mortality. The secondary outcomes are serious adverse reactions within 30 days; isolation precautions due to resistant bacteria within 30 days; days alive without life support and days alive and out of hospital within 30 and 90 days; 90- and 180-day all-cause mortality and 180-day health-related quality of life. EMPRESS will use Bayesian statistical models with weak to somewhat sceptical neutral priors. Adaptive analyses will be conducted after follow-up of the primary outcome for the first 400 participants concludes and after every 300 subsequent participants, with adaptive stopping for superiority/inferiority and practical equivalence (absolute risk difference <2.5%-points) and response-adaptive randomisation. The expected sample sizes in scenarios with no, small or large differences are 5189, 5859 and 2570 participants, with maximum 14,000 participants and ≥99% probability of conclusiveness across all scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: EMPRESS will compare the effects of empirical meropenem against piperacillin/tazobactam in adult, critically ill patients with sepsis. Due to the pragmatic, adaptive design with high probability of conclusiveness, the trial results are expected to directly inform clinical practice.

Effects of sceptical priors on the performance of adaptive clinical trials with binary outcomes.

It is unclear how sceptical priors impact adaptive trials. We assessed the influence of priors expressing a spectrum of scepticism on the performance of several Bayesian, multi-stage, adaptive clinical trial designs using binary outcomes under different clinical scenarios. Simulations were conducted using fixed stopping rules and stopping rules calibrated to keep type 1 error rates at approximately 5%. We assessed total sample sizes, event rates, event counts, probabilities of conclusiveness and selecting the best arm, root mean squared errors (RMSEs) of the estimated treatment effect in the selected arms, and ideal design percentages (IDPs; which combines arm selection probabilities, power, and consequences of selecting inferior arms), with RMSEs and IDPs estimated in conclusive trials only and after selecting the control arm in inconclusive trials. Using fixed stopping rules, increasingly sceptical priors led to larger sample sizes, more events, higher IDPs in simulations ending in superiority, and lower RMSEs, lower probabilities of conclusiveness/selecting the best arm, and lower IDPs when selecting controls in inconclusive simulations. With calibrated stopping rules, the effects of increased scepticism on sample sizes and event counts were attenuated, and increased scepticism increased the probabilities of conclusiveness/selecting the best arm and IDPs when selecting controls in inconclusive simulations without substantially increasing sample sizes. Results from trial designs with gentle adaptation and non-informative priors resembled those from designs with more aggressive adaptation using weakly-to-moderately sceptical priors. In conclusion, the use of somewhat sceptical priors in adaptive trial designs with binary outcomes seems reasonable when considering multiple performance metrics simultaneously.

Effects of duration of follow-up and lag in data collection on the performance of adaptive clinical trials.

Different combined outcome-data lags (follow-up durations plus data-collection lags) may affect the performance of adaptive clinical trial designs. We assessed the influence of different outcome-data lags (0-105 days) on the performance of various multi-stage, adaptive trial designs (2/4 arms, with/without a common control, fixed/response-adaptive randomisation) with undesirable binary outcomes according to different inclusion rates (3.33/6.67/10 patients/day) under scenarios with no, small, and large differences. Simulations were conducted under a Bayesian framework, with constant stopping thresholds for superiority/inferiority calibrated to keep type-1 error rates at approximately 5%. We assessed multiple performance metrics, including mean sample sizes, event counts/probabilities, probabilities of conclusiveness, root mean squared errors (RMSEs) of the estimated effect in the selected arms, and RMSEs between the analyses at the time of stopping and the final analyses including data from all randomised patients. Performance metrics generally deteriorated when the proportions of randomised patients with available data were smaller due to longer outcome-data lags or faster inclusion, that is, mean sample sizes, event counts/probabilities, and RMSEs were larger, while the probabilities of conclusiveness were lower. Performance metric impairments with outcome-data lags ≤45 days were relatively smaller compared to those occurring with ≥60 days of lag. For most metrics, the effects of different outcome-data lags and lower proportions of randomised patients with available data were larger than those of different design choices, for example, the use of fixed versus response-adaptive randomisation. Increased outcome-data lag substantially affected the performance of adaptive trial designs. Trialists should consider the effects of outcome-data lags when planning adaptive trials.

Use of days alive without life support and similar count outcomes in randomised clinical trials - an overview and comparison of methodological choices and analysis methods.

BACKGROUND: Days alive without life support (DAWOLS) and similar outcomes that seek to summarise mortality and non-mortality experiences are increasingly used in critical care research. The use of these outcomes is challenged by different definitions and non-normal outcome distributions that complicate statistical analysis decisions. METHODS: We scrutinized the central methodological considerations when using DAWOLS and similar outcomes and provide a description and overview of the pros and cons of various statistical methods for analysis supplemented with a comparison of these methods using data from the COVID STEROID 2 randomised clinical trial. We focused on readily available regression models of increasing complexity (linear, hurdle-negative binomial, zero-one-inflated beta, and cumulative logistic regression models) that allow comparison of multiple treatment arms, adjustment for covariates and interaction terms to assess treatment effect heterogeneity. RESULTS: In general, the simpler models adequately estimated group means despite not fitting the data well enough to mimic the input data. The more complex models better fitted and thus better replicated the input data, although this came with increased complexity and uncertainty of estimates. While the more complex models can model separate components of the outcome distributions (i.e., the probability of having zero DAWOLS), this complexity means that the specification of interpretable priors in a Bayesian setting is difficult. Finally, we present multiple examples of how these outcomes may be visualised to aid assessment and interpretation. CONCLUSIONS: This summary of central methodological considerations when using, defining, and analysing DAWOLS and similar outcomes may help researchers choose the definition and analysis method that best fits their planned studies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: COVID STEROID 2 trial, ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04509973, ctri.nic.in: CTRI/2020/10/028731.

Abnormal serum levels of magnesium, phosphate, and zinc in ICU patients-Characteristics, management, and outcomes: The WhyTrace cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Abnormal serum levels of magnesium, phosphate, and zinc appear common in intensive care unit (ICU) patients, but the epidemiology, management, and associations with outcomes are less well described. We described these factors and estimated associations with outcomes in a large dataset of Danish ICU patients. METHODS: We included adults who were acutely admitted to 10 general ICUs in Denmark between October 2011 and January 2018. From the dataset, we obtained characteristics of patients who had serum levels measured of magnesium, phosphate, or zinc, including data on supplementation. We used joint models with death as a competing outcome to estimate the associations between abnormal serum levels and time to successful extubation and, for magnesium, also incident tachyarrhythmia. RESULTS: We included 16,517 of 36,514 patients in the dataset. The cumulative probability of hypomagnesemia within 28 days was 64% (95% confidence interval [CI] 62-66); of hypophosphatemia 74% (95% CI 72-75); and of hypozincemia 98% (95% CI 98-98). Supplementation of magnesium was used in 3554 out of 13,506 (26%) patients, phosphate in 2115 out of 14,148 (15%) patients, and zinc in 4465 out of 9869 (45%) patients. During ICU stay, 38% experienced hypermagnesemia, 58% hyperphosphatemia, and 1% hyperzincemia. Low serum levels of magnesium, phosphate, and zinc were associated with shorter time to successful extubation, and high serum magnesium and phosphate and low serum zinc with the competing risk of increased mortality, but too few serum measurements made the results inconclusive. CONCLUSION: In this multicenter cohort study of acutely admitted ICU patients, most experienced low serum levels of magnesium, phosphate, or zinc during ICU stay, many received supplementation, and experiencing both low and high serum levels during ICU stay was not uncommon. Associations between serum levels and clinical outcomes appeared inconclusive because the data proved unfit for these analyses.

Association between days alive without life support/out of hospital and health-related quality of life.

BACKGROUND: Trials in critically ill patients increasingly focus on days alive without life support (DAWOLS) or days alive out of hospital (DAOOH) and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). DAWOLS and DAOOH convey more information than mortality and are simpler and faster to collect than HRQoL. However, whether these outcomes are associated with HRQoL is uncertain. We thus aimed to assess the associations between DAWOLS and DAOOH and long-term HRQoL. METHODS: Secondary analysis of the COVID STEROID 2 trial including adults with COVID-19 and severe hypoxaemia and the Handling Oxygenation Targets in the Intensive Care Unit (HOT-ICU) trial including adult intensive care unit patients with acute hypoxaemic respiratory failure. Associations between DAWOLS and DAOOH at day 28 and 90 and long-term HRQoL (after 6 or 12 months) using the EuroQol 5-dimension 5-level survey (EQ VAS and EQ-5D-5L index values) were assessed using flexible models and evaluated using measures of fit and prediction adequacy in both datasets (comprising internal performance and external validation), non-parametric correlation coefficients and graphical presentations. RESULTS: We found no strong associations between DAWOLS or DAOOH and HRQoL in survivors at HRQoL-follow-up (615 and 1476 patients, respectively). There was substantial variability in outcomes, and predictions from the best fitted models were poor both internally and externally in the other trial dataset, which also showed inadequate calibration. Moderate associations were found when including non-survivors, although predictions remained uncertain and calibration inadequate. CONCLUSION: DAWOLS and DAOOH were poorly associated with HRQoL in adult survivors of severe or critical illness included in the COVID STEROID 2 and HOT-ICU trials.

Patient-Important Outcomes Other Than Mortality in Contemporary ICU Trials: A Scoping Review.

OBJECTIVES: Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) conducted in adult ICU patients increasingly include patient-important outcomes other than mortality. This comes with challenges regarding outcome choices/definitions, handling of deceased patients and missing data in analyses, and choices of effect measures and statistical methods due to complex distributions. This scoping review aimed to characterize how these challenges are handled in relevant contemporary RCTs. DATA SOURCES: We systematically searched 10 selected journals for RCTs conducted primarily in adult ICU patients published between 1 January 2018 and 5 May 2022 reporting at least one patient-important outcome other than mortality, including "days alive without"…-type outcomes, functional/cognitive/neurologic outcomes, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) outcomes, and ordinal/other outcomes. STUDY SELECTION: Abstracts and full-texts were assessed independently and in duplicate by two reviewers. DATA EXTRACTION: Data were extracted independently and in duplicate by two reviewers using predefined and pilot-tested extraction forms and subsequently categorized to facilitate analysis. DATA SYNTHESIS: We included 687 outcomes from 167 RCTs, with 32% of RCTs using a patient-important outcome other than mortality as a (co-)primary outcome, most frequently "days alive without"…-type outcomes. Many different functional/cognitive/neurologic (103) and HRQoL (29) outcomes were reported. Handling of deceased patients varied, with analyses frequently restricted to survivors only for functional/cognitive/neurologic (62%) and HRQoL (89%) outcomes. Follow-up was generally longer and missing data proportions higher for functional/cognitive/neurologic and HRQoL outcomes. Most outcomes were analyzed using nonparametric tests (31%), linear regression/ t tests (27%), chi-square-like tests (12%), and proportional odds logistic regression (9%), often without presentation of actual treatment effects estimates (38%). CONCLUSIONS: In this sample of RCTs, substantial variation in practice and suboptimal methodological choices were observed. This calls for increased focus on standardizing outcome choices and definitions, adequate handling of missing data and deceased patients in analyses, and use of statistical methods quantifying effect sizes.

Sudden unexplained death versus nonautopsied possible sudden cardiac death: Findings in relatives.

BACKGROUND: International guidelines recommend work-up of relatives to autopsy negative sudden cardiac death victims, denoted as sudden unexplained death (SUD) and nonautopsied possible sudden cardiac death (pSCD) victims. This study assesses and compare baseline characteristics and clinical outcome at initial evaluation and during follow-up of relatives to SUD and pSCD victims. METHODS: We retrospectively included data from systematic screening and routine follow-up of first-degree relatives to SUD and pSCD victims referred to our Unit for Inherited Cardiac Diseases, Copenhagen, 2005-2018. Victims with an antemortem known inherited cardiac disease were excluded. RESULTS: We included 371 first-degree relatives from 187 families (120 SUD, 67 pSCD): 276 SUD relatives (age 33 ± 18 years, 54% men) and 95 pSCD relatives (age 40 ± 15 years, 51% men). The diagnostic yields of inherited cardiac diseases in SUD and pSCD families were 16% and 13%, respectively (p = .8). The diagnoses in SUD families were mainly channelopathies (68%), whereas pSCD families were equally diagnosed with cardiomyopathies, channelopathies, and premature ischemic heart disease. Ninety-three percent of diagnosed families were diagnosed at initial evaluation and 7% during follow-up (5.4 ± 3.3 years). During follow-up 34% of relatives with a diagnosed inherited cardiac disease had an arrhythmic event, compared to 5% of relatives without established diagnosis (p < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: Channelopathies dominated in SUD families whereas a broader spectrum of inherited diseases was diagnosed in pSCD families. Most affected relatives were diagnosed at initial evaluation. The event rate was low in relatives without an established diagnosis. Long-term clinical follow-up may not be warranted in all relatives with normal baseline-findings.

Seek COVER: using a disease proxy to rapidly develop and validate a personalized risk calculator for COVID-19 outcomes in an international network.

BACKGROUND: We investigated whether we could use influenza data to develop prediction models for COVID-19 to increase the speed at which prediction models can reliably be developed and validated early in a pandemic. We developed COVID-19 Estimated Risk (COVER) scores that quantify a patient's risk of hospital admission with pneumonia (COVER-H), hospitalization with pneumonia requiring intensive services or death (COVER-I), or fatality (COVER-F) in the 30-days following COVID-19 diagnosis using historical data from patients with influenza or flu-like symptoms and tested this in COVID-19 patients. METHODS: We analyzed a federated network of electronic medical records and administrative claims data from 14 data sources and 6 countries containing data collected on or before 4/27/2020. We used a 2-step process to develop 3 scores using historical data from patients with influenza or flu-like symptoms any time prior to 2020. The first step was to create a data-driven model using LASSO regularized logistic regression, the covariates of which were used to develop aggregate covariates for the second step where the COVER scores were developed using a smaller set of features. These 3 COVER scores were then externally validated on patients with 1) influenza or flu-like symptoms and 2) confirmed or suspected COVID-19 diagnosis across 5 databases from South Korea, Spain, and the United States. Outcomes included i) hospitalization with pneumonia, ii) hospitalization with pneumonia requiring intensive services or death, and iii) death in the 30 days after index date. RESULTS: Overall, 44,507 COVID-19 patients were included for model validation. We identified 7 predictors (history of cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, heart disease, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, kidney disease) which combined with age and sex discriminated which patients would experience any of our three outcomes. The models achieved good performance in influenza and COVID-19 cohorts. For COVID-19 the AUC ranges were, COVER-H: 0.69-0.81, COVER-I: 0.73-0.91, and COVER-F: 0.72-0.90. Calibration varied across the validations with some of the COVID-19 validations being less well calibrated than the influenza validations. CONCLUSIONS: This research demonstrated the utility of using a proxy disease to develop a prediction model. The 3 COVER models with 9-predictors that were developed using influenza data perform well for COVID-19 patients for predicting hospitalization, intensive services, and fatality. The scores showed good discriminatory performance which transferred well to the COVID-19 population. There was some miscalibration in the COVID-19 validations, which is potentially due to the difference in symptom severity between the two diseases. A possible solution for this is to recalibrate the models in each location before use.

Drug interactions in hospital prescriptions in Denmark: Prevalence and associations with adverse outcomes.

PURPOSE: While the beneficial effects of medications are numerous, drug-drug interactions may lead to adverse drug reactions that are preventable causes of morbidity and mortality. Our goal was to quantify the prevalence of potential drug-drug interactions in drug prescriptions at Danish hospitals, estimate the risk of adverse outcomes associated with discouraged drug combinations, and highlight the patient types (defined by the primary diagnosis of the admission) that appear to be more affected. METHODS: This cross-sectional (descriptive part) and cohort study (adverse outcomes part) used hospital electronic health records from two Danish regions (~2.5 million people) from January 2008 through June 2016. We included all inpatients receiving two or more medications during their admission and considered concomitant prescriptions of potentially interacting drugs as per the Danish Drug Interaction Database. We measured the prevalence of potential drug-drug interactions in general and discouraged drug pairs in particular during admissions and associations with adverse outcomes: post-discharge all-cause mortality rate, readmission rate and length-of-stay. RESULTS: Among 2 886 227 hospital admissions (945 475 patients; median age 62 years [IQR: 41-74]; 54% female; median number of drugs 7 [IQR: 4-11]), patients in 1 836 170 admissions were exposed to at least one potential drug-drug interaction (659 525 patients; median age 65 years [IQR: 49-77]; 54% female; median number of drugs 9 [IQR: 6-13]) and in 27 605 admissions to a discouraged drug pair (18 192 patients; median age 68 years [IQR: 58-77]; female 46%; median number of drugs 16 [IQR: 11-22]). Meropenem-valproic acid (HR: 1.5, 95% CI: 1.1-1.9), domperidone-fluconazole (HR: 2.5, 95% CI: 2.1-3.1), imipramine-terbinafine (HR: 3.8, 95% CI: 1.2-12), agomelatine-ciprofloxacin (HR: 2.6, 95% CI: 1.3-5.5), clarithromycin-quetiapine (HR: 1.7, 95% CI: 1.1-2.7) and piroxicam-warfarin (HR: 3.4, 95% CI: 1-11.4) were associated with elevated mortality. Confidence interval bounds of pairs associated with readmission were close to 1; length-of-stay results were inconclusive. CONCLUSIONS: Well-described potential drug-drug interactions are still missed and alerts at point of prescription may reduce the risk of harming patients; prescribing clinicians should be alert when using strong inhibitor/inducer drugs (i.e. clarithromycin, valproic acid, terbinafine) and prevalent anticoagulants (i.e. warfarin and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs - NSAIDs) due to their great potential for dangerous interactions. The most prominent CYP isoenzyme involved in mortality and readmission rates was 3A4.

Health-related quality of life and days alive without life support or out of hospital: Protocol.

BACKGROUND: Mortality is often the primary outcome in randomised clinical trials (RCTs) conducted in critically ill patients. Due to increased awareness on survivors after critical illness and outcomes other than mortality, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and days alive without life support (DAWOLS) or days alive and out of hospital (DAAOOH) are increasingly being used. DAWOLS and DAAOOH convey more information than mortality, are easier to collect than HRQoL, and are usually assessed at earlier time points, which may be preferable in some situations. However, the associations between DAWOLS-DAAOOH and HRQoL are uncertain. METHODS: We will assess associations between DAWOLS-DAAOOH at day 28 and 90 (independent variables/predictors) and HRQoL assessed using the EuroQol EQ-5D-5L questionnaire (EQ-VAS and EQ-5D-5L index values) at 6 or 12 months (dependent variables) in two RCTs: the COVID STEROID 2 RCT conducted in adult patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxaemia and the Handling Oxygenation Targets in the Intensive Care Unit (HOT-ICU) RCT conducted in adult intensive care patients with acute hypoxaemic respiratory failure. We will describe associations using best-fitting fractional polynomial transformations separately in each dataset, with the resulting models presented and assessed in both datasets graphically and using measures of fit and prediction adequacy (i.e., internal performance and external validation). We will use multiple imputation if missingness exceeds 5%. DISCUSSION: The outlined study will provide important knowledge on the associations between DAWOLS-DAAOOH and HRQoL in adult critically ill patients, which may help researchers and clinical trialists prioritise and select outcomes in future RCTs conducted in this population.

Causal inference for planning randomised critical care trials: Protocol for a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Randomised clinical trials in critical care are prone to inconclusiveness owing, in part, to undue optimism about effect sizes and suboptimal accounting for heterogeneous treatment effects. Planned predictive enrichment based on secondary critical care data (often very rich with respect to both data types and temporal granularity) and causal inference methods may help overcome these challenges, but no overview exists about their use to this end. METHODS: We will conduct a scoping review to assess the extent and nature of the use of causal inference from secondary data for planned predictive enrichment of randomised clinical trials in critical care. We will systematically search 10 general and specialty journals for reports published on or after 1 January 2018, of randomised clinical trials enrolling adult critically ill patients. We will collect trial metadata (e.g., recruitment period and phase) and, when available, information pertaining to the focus of the review (predictive enrichment based on causal inference estimates from secondary data): causal inference methods, estimation techniques and software used; types of patient populations; data provenance, types and models; and the availability of the data (public or not). The results will be reported in a descriptive manner. DISCUSSION: The outlined scoping review aims to assess the use of causal inference methods and secondary data for planned predictive enrichment in randomised critical care trials. This will help guide methodological improvements to increase the utility, and facilitate the use, of causal inference estimates when planning such trials in the future.

Risk of depression, suicide and psychosis with hydroxychloroquine treatment for rheumatoid arthritis: a multinational network cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Concern has been raised in the rheumatology community regarding recent regulatory warnings that HCQ used in the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic could cause acute psychiatric events. We aimed to study whether there is risk of incident depression, suicidal ideation or psychosis associated with HCQ as used for RA. METHODS: We performed a new-user cohort study using claims and electronic medical records from 10 sources and 3 countries (Germany, UK and USA). RA patients ≥18 years of age and initiating HCQ were compared with those initiating SSZ (active comparator) and followed up in the short (30 days) and long term (on treatment). Study outcomes included depression, suicide/suicidal ideation and hospitalization for psychosis. Propensity score stratification and calibration using negative control outcomes were used to address confounding. Cox models were fitted to estimate database-specific calibrated hazard ratios (HRs), with estimates pooled where I2 <40%. RESULTS: A total of 918 144 and 290 383 users of HCQ and SSZ, respectively, were included. No consistent risk of psychiatric events was observed with short-term HCQ (compared with SSZ) use, with meta-analytic HRs of 0.96 (95% CI 0.79, 1.16) for depression, 0.94 (95% CI 0.49, 1.77) for suicide/suicidal ideation and 1.03 (95% CI 0.66, 1.60) for psychosis. No consistent long-term risk was seen, with meta-analytic HRs of 0.94 (95% CI 0.71, 1.26) for depression, 0.77 (95% CI 0.56, 1.07) for suicide/suicidal ideation and 0.99 (95% CI 0.72, 1.35) for psychosis. CONCLUSION: HCQ as used to treat RA does not appear to increase the risk of depression, suicide/suicidal ideation or psychosis compared with SSZ. No effects were seen in the short or long term. Use at a higher dose or for different indications needs further investigation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registered with EU PAS (reference no. EUPAS34497; http://www.encepp.eu/encepp/viewResource.htm? id=34498). The full study protocol and analysis source code can be found at https://github.com/ohdsi-studies/Covid19EstimationHydroxychloroquine2.