Trait-based approaches to global change ecology: moving from description to prediction.

Trait-based approaches are increasingly recognized as a tool for understanding ecosystem re-assembly and function under intensifying global change. Here we synthesize trait-based research globally (n = 865 studies) to examine the contexts in which traits may be used for global change prediction. We find that exponential growth in the field over the last decade remains dominated by descriptive studies of terrestrial plant morphology, highlighting significant opportunities to expand trait-based thinking across systems and taxa. Very few studies (less than 3%) focus on predicting ecological effects of global change, mostly in the past 5 years and via singular traits that mediate abiotic limits on species distribution. Beyond organism size (the most examined trait), we identify over 2500 other morphological, physiological, behavioural and life-history traits known to mediate environmental filters of species' range and abundance as candidates for future predictive global change work. Though uncommon, spatially explicit process models-which mechanistically link traits to changes in organism distributions and abundance-are among the most promising frameworks for holistic global change prediction at scales relevant for conservation decision-making. Further progress towards trait-based forecasting requires addressing persistent barriers including (1) matching scales of multivariate trait and environment data to focal processes disrupted by global change, and (2) propagating variation in trait and environmental parameters throughout process model functions using simulation.

The Pelagic Species Trait Database, an open data resource to support trait-based ocean research.

Trait-based frameworks are increasingly used for predicting how ecological communities respond to ongoing global change. As species range shifts result in novel encounters between predators and prey, identifying prey 'guilds', based on a suite of shared traits, can distill complex species interactions, and aid in predicting food web dynamics. To support advances in trait-based research in open-ocean systems, we present the Pelagic Species Trait Database, an extensive resource documenting functional traits of 529 pelagic fish and invertebrate species in a single, open-source repository. We synthesized literature sources and online resources, conducted morphometric analysis of species images, as well as laboratory analyses of trawl-captured specimens to collate traits describing 1) habitat use and behavior, 2) morphology, 3) nutritional quality, and 4) population status information. Species in the dataset primarily inhabit the California Current system and broader NE Pacific Ocean, but also includes pelagic species known to be consumed by top ocean predators from other ocean basins. The aim of this dataset is to enhance the use of trait-based approaches in marine ecosystems and for predator populations worldwide.

Early development of congeneric sea urchins (Heliocidaris) with contrasting life history modes in a warming and high CO2 ocean.

The impacts of ocean change stressors - warming and acidification - on marine invertebrate development have emerged as a significant impact of global change. We investigated the response of early development to the larval stage in sympatric, congeneric sea urchins, Heliocidaris tuberculata and Heliocidaris erythrogramma with contrasting modes of development to ocean warming and acidification. Effects of these stressors were assessed by quantifying the percentage of normal development during the first 24 h post fertilization, in cross-factorial experiments that included three temperature treatments (control: 20 °C; +4: 24 °C; +6: 26 °C) and four pHNIST levels (control: 8.2; -0.4: 7.8; -0.6: 7.6; -0.8: 0.4). The experimental treatments were designed in context with present day and near-future (∼2100) conditions for the southeast Australia global warming hotspot. Temperature was the most important factor affecting development of both species causing faster progression through developmental stages as well as a decrease in the percentage of normal development. H. erythrogramma embryos were less tolerant of increased temperature than those of H. tuberculata. Acidification impaired development to the larval stage in H. tuberculata, but this was not the case for H. erythrogramma. Thus, outcomes for the planktonic life phase of the two Heliocidaris species in response to ocean warming and acidification will differ. As shown for these species, single-stressor temperature or acidification studies can be misleading with respect to determining species' vulnerability and responses to global change.