Managing the effects of multiple stressors on wildlife populations in their ecosystems: developing a cumulative risk approach.

Assessing cumulative effects of human activities on ecosystems is required by many jurisdictions, but current science cannot meet regulatory demands. Regulations define them as effect(s) of one human action combined with other actions. Here we argue for an approach that evaluates the cumulative risk of multiple stressors for protected wildlife populations within their ecosystems. Monitoring effects of each stressor is necessary but not sufficient to estimate how multiple stressors interact to affect wildlife populations. Examining the mechanistic pathways, from cellular to ecological, by which stressors affect individuals can help prioritize stressors and interpret how they interact. Our approach uses health indicators to accumulate the effects of stressors on individuals and to estimate changes in vital rates, driving population status. We advocate using methods well-established in human health and integrating them into ecosystem-based management to protect the health of commercially and culturally important wildlife populations and to protect against risk of extinction for threatened species. Our approach will improve abilities to conserve and manage ecosystems but will also demand significant increases in research and monitoring effort. We advocate for increased investment proportional to the economic scale of human activities in the Anthropocene and their pervasive effects on ecology and biodiversity.

Behavioral responses of individual blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) to mid-frequency military sonar.

This study measured the degree of behavioral responses in blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) to controlled noise exposure off the southern California coast. High-resolution movement and passive acoustic data were obtained from non-invasive archival tags (n=42) whereas surface positions were obtained with visual focal follows. Controlled exposure experiments (CEEs) were used to obtain direct behavioral measurements before, during and after simulated and operational military mid-frequency active sonar (MFAS), pseudorandom noise (PRN) and controls (no noise exposure). For a subset of deep-feeding animals (n=21), active acoustic measurements of prey were obtained and used as contextual covariates in response analyses. To investigate potential behavioral changes within individuals as a function of controlled noise exposure conditions, two parallel analyses of time-series data for selected behavioral parameters (e.g. diving, horizontal movement and feeding) were conducted. This included expert scoring of responses according to a specified behavioral severity rating paradigm and quantitative change-point analyses using Mahalanobis distance statistics. Both methods identified clear changes in some conditions. More than 50% of blue whales in deep-feeding states responded during CEEs, whereas no changes in behavior were identified in shallow-feeding blue whales. Overall, responses were generally brief, of low to moderate severity, and highly dependent on exposure context such as behavioral state, source-to-whale horizontal range and prey availability. Response probability did not follow a simple exposure-response model based on received exposure level. These results, in combination with additional analytical methods to investigate different aspects of potential responses within and among individuals, provide a comprehensive evaluation of how free-ranging blue whales responded to mid-frequency military sonar.

The Challenges of Analyzing Behavioral Response Study Data: An Overview of the MOCHA (Multi-study OCean Acoustics Human Effects Analysis) Project.

This paper describes the MOCHA project which aims to develop novel approaches for the analysis of data collected during Behavioral Response Studies (BRSs). BRSs are experiments aimed at directly quantifying the effects of controlled dosages of natural or anthropogenic stimuli (typically sound) on marine mammal behavior. These experiments typically result in low sample size, relative to variability, and so we are looking at a number of studies in combination to maximize the gain from each one. We describe a suite of analytical tools applied to BRS data on beaked whales, including a simulation study aimed at informing future experimental design.

Developing lithium chemistry of 1,2-dihydropyridines: from kinetic intermediates to isolable characterized compounds.

Generally considered kinetic intermediates in addition reactions of alkyllithiums to pyridine, 1-lithio-2-alkyl-1,2-dihydropyridines have been rarely isolated or characterized. This study develops their "isolated" chemistry. By a unique stoichiometric (that is, 1:1, alkyllithium/pyridine ratios) synthetic approach using tridentate donors we show it is possible to stabilize and hence crystallize monomeric complexes where alkyl is tert-butyl. Theoretical calculations probing the donor-free parent tert-butyl species reveal 12 energetically similar stereoisomers in two distinct cyclotrimeric (LiN)3 conformations. NMR spectroscopy studies (including DOSY spectra) and thermal volatility analysis compare new sec-butyl and iso-butyl isomers showing the former is a hexane soluble efficient hydrolithiation agent converting benzophenone to lithium diphenylmethoxide. Emphasizing the criticalness of stoichiometry, reaction of nBuLi/Me6 TREN with two equivalents of pyridine results in non-alkylated 1-lithio-1,4-dihydropyridine⋅Me6 TREN and 2-n-butylpyridine, implying mechanistically the kinetic 1,2-n-butyl intermediate hydrolithiates the second pyridine.

Decreasing body size is associated with reduced calving probability in critically endangered North Atlantic right whales.

Body size is key to many life-history processes, including reproduction. Across species, climate change and other stressors have caused reductions in the body size to which animals can grow, called asymptotic size, with consequences for demography. A reduction in mean asymptotic length was documented for critically endangered North Atlantic right whales, in parallel with declines in health and vital rates resulting from human activities and environmental changes. Here, we tested whether smaller body size was associated with lower reproductive output, using a state-space model for individual health, survival and reproduction that quantifies the mechanistic links between these processes. Body size (as represented by the cube of length) was strongly associated with a female's calving probability at each reproductive opportunity. This relationship explained 62% of the variation in calving among reproductive females, along with their decreasing health (20%). The effects of decreasing mean body size on reproductive performance are another concerning indication of the worsening prospects for this species and many others affected by environmental change, requiring a focus of conservation and management interventions on improving conditions that affect reproduction as well as reducing mortality.

Behavioural responses of fin whales to military mid-frequency active sonar.

The effect of active sonars on marine mammal behaviour is a topic of considerable interest and scientific investigation. Some whales, including the largest species (blue whales, Balaenoptera musculus), can be impacted by mid-frequency (1-10 kHz) military sonars. Here we apply complementary experimental methods to provide the first experimentally controlled measurements of behavioural responses to military sonar and similar stimuli for a related endangered species, fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus). Analytical methods include: (i) principal component analysis paired with generalized additive mixed models; (ii) hidden Markov models; and (iii) structured expert elicitation using response severity metrics. These approaches provide complementary perspectives on the nature of potential changes within and across individuals. Behavioural changes were detected in five of 15 whales during controlled exposure experiments using mid-frequency active sonar or pseudorandom noise of similar frequency, duration and source and received level. No changes were detected during six control (no noise) sequences. Overall responses were more limited in occurrence, severity and duration than in blue whales and were less dependent upon contextual aspects of exposure and more contingent upon exposure received level. Quantifying the factors influencing marine mammal responses to sonar is critical in assessing and mitigating future impacts.

Understanding the combined effects of multiple stressors: A new perspective on a longstanding challenge.

Wildlife populations and their habitats are exposed to an expanding diversity and intensity of stressors caused by human activities, within the broader context of natural processes and increasing pressure from climate change. Estimating how these multiple stressors affect individuals, populations, and ecosystems is thus of growing importance. However, their combined effects often cannot be predicted reliably from the individual effects of each stressor, and we lack the mechanistic understanding and analytical tools to predict their joint outcomes. We review the science of multiple stressors and present a conceptual framework that captures and reconciles the variety of existing approaches for assessing combined effects. Specifically, we show that all approaches lie along a spectrum, reflecting increasing assumptions about the mechanisms that regulate the action of single stressors and their combined effects. An emphasis on mechanisms improves analytical precision and predictive power but could introduce bias if the underlying assumptions are incorrect. A purely empirical approach has less risk of bias but requires adequate data on the effects of the full range of anticipated combinations of stressor types and magnitudes. We illustrate how this spectrum can be formalised into specific analytical methods, using an example of North Atlantic right whales feeding on limited prey resources while simultaneously being affected by entanglement in fishing gear. In practice, case-specific management needs and data availability will guide the exploration of the stressor combinations of interest and the selection of a suitable trade-off between precision and bias. We argue that the primary goal for adaptive management should be to identify the most practical and effective ways to remove or reduce specific combinations of stressors, bringing the risk of adverse impacts on populations and ecosystems below acceptable thresholds.

A simulation approach to assessing environmental risk of sound exposure to marine mammals.

Intense underwater sounds caused by military sonar, seismic surveys, and pile driving can harm acoustically sensitive marine mammals. Many jurisdictions require such activities to undergo marine mammal impact assessments to guide mitigation. However, the ability to assess impacts in a rigorous, quantitative way is hindered by large knowledge gaps concerning hearing ability, sensitivity, and behavioral responses to noise exposure. We describe a simulation-based framework, called SAFESIMM (Statistical Algorithms For Estimating the Sonar Influence on Marine Megafauna), that can be used to calculate the numbers of agents (animals) likely to be affected by intense underwater sounds. We illustrate the simulation framework using two species that are likely to be affected by marine renewable energy developments in UK waters: gray seal (Halichoerus grypus) and harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena). We investigate three sources of uncertainty: How sound energy is perceived by agents with differing hearing abilities; how agents move in response to noise (i.e., the strength and directionality of their evasive movements); and the way in which these responses may interact with longer term constraints on agent movement. The estimate of received sound exposure level (SEL) is influenced most strongly by the weighting function used to account for the specie's presumed hearing ability. Strongly directional movement away from the sound source can cause modest reductions (~5 dB) in SEL over the short term (periods of less than 10 days). Beyond 10 days, the way in which agents respond to noise exposure has little or no effect on SEL, unless their movements are constrained by natural boundaries. Most experimental studies of noise impacts have been short-term. However, data are needed on long-term effects because uncertainty about predicted SELs accumulates over time. Synthesis and applications. Simulation frameworks offer a powerful way to explore, understand, and estimate effects of cumulative sound exposure on marine mammals and to quantify associated levels of uncertainty. However, they can often require subjective decisions that have important consequences for management recommendations, and the basis for these decisions must be clearly described.

Global coverage of cetacean line-transect surveys: status quo, data gaps and future challenges.

Knowledge of abundance, trends and distribution of cetacean populations is needed to inform marine conservation efforts, ecosystem models and spatial planning. We compiled a geo-spatial database of published data on cetacean abundance from dedicated visual line-transect surveys and encoded >1100 abundance estimates for 47 species from 430 surveys conducted worldwide from 1975-2005. Our subsequent analyses revealed large spatial, temporal and taxonomic variability and gaps in survey coverage. With the exception of Antarctic waters, survey coverage was biased toward the northern hemisphere, especially US and northern European waters. Overall, <25% of the world's ocean surface was surveyed and only 6% had been covered frequently enough (≥ 5 times) to allow trend estimation. Almost half the global survey effort, defined as total area (km(2)) covered by all survey study areas across time, was concentrated in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP). Neither the number of surveys conducted nor the survey effort had increased in recent years. Across species, an average of 10% of a species' predicted range had been covered by at least one survey, but there was considerable variation among species. With the exception of three delphinid species, <1% of all species' ranges had been covered frequently enough for trend analysis. Sperm whales emerged from our analyses as a relatively data-rich species. This is a notoriously difficult species to survey visually, and we use this as an example to illustrate the challenges of using available data from line-transect surveys for the detection of trends or for spatial planning. We propose field and analytical methods to fill in data gaps to improve cetacean conservation efforts.

Evaluating the influence of epidemiological parameters and host ecology on the spread of phocine distemper virus through populations of harbour seals.

BACKGROUND: Outbreaks of phocine distemper virus (PDV) in Europe during 1988 and 2002 were responsible for the death of around 23,000 and 30,000 harbour seals, respectively. These epidemics, particularly the one in 2002, provided an unusual opportunity to estimate epidemic parameters for a wildlife disease. There were marked regional differences in the values of some parameters both within and between epidemics. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used an individual-based model of seal movement that allowed us to incorporate realistic representations of space, time and animal behaviour into a traditional epidemiological modelling framework. We explored the potential influence of a range of ecological (foraging trip duration, time of epidemic onset, population size) and epidemiological (length of infectious period, contact rate between infectious and susceptible individuals, case mortality) parameters on four readily-measurable epidemic characteristics (number of dead individuals, duration of epidemic, peak mortality date and prevalence) and on the probability that an epidemic would occur in a particular region. We analysed the outputs as if they were the results of a series of virtual experiments, using Generalised Linear Modelling. All six variables had a significant effect on the probability that an epidemic would be recognised as an unusual mortality event by human observers. CONCLUSIONS: Regional and temporal variation in contact rate was the most likely cause of the observed differences between the two epidemics. This variation could be a consequence of differences in the way individuals divide their time between land and sea at different times of the year.