Modelling the potential of rainwater harvesting to improve the sustainability of landscape and public garden irrigation.

Access to water for irrigating amenity landscape and public gardens is under intense pressure due to the rising competition for water between different sectors, exacerbated by increased drought risk and climate change. Rainwater harvesting (RWH) has the potential to reduce the economic impacts of restrictions on irrigation abstraction in dry years and to build resilience to future water shortages. This study investigated the hydrological viability of RWH for the landscape and public garden sector based on an analysis of five Royal Horticultural Society gardens. A RWH model was developed and combined with on-site observations, key informant interviews and GIS analyses, to estimate irrigation demands and the volumes of harvested rainfall for contrasting agroclimatic years. The results showed that gardens located in wetter regions and with low irrigation water demand to harvestable area ratio had a higher RWH potential and could almost exclusively rely on rainwater to meet irrigation demand, even in dry years. RWH potential is more limited for gardens in drier regions where they would require larger areas to harvest rainwater and for storage. Appropriately designed rainwater harvesting systems offer the potential to remove most of the risk of irrigation abstraction restrictions during dry years and associated impacts on amenity planting quality and visitor experience.

Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis.

The global land system is facing unprecedented pressures from growing human populations and climatic change. Understanding the effects these pressures may have is necessary to designing land management strategies that ensure food security, ecosystem service provision and successful climate mitigation and adaptation. However, the number of complex, interacting effects involved makes any complete understanding very difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, the recent development of integrated modelling frameworks allows for the exploration of the co-development of human and natural systems under scenarios of global change, potentially illuminating the main drivers and processes in future land system change. Here, we use one such integrated modelling framework (the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform) to investigate the range of projected outcomes in the European land system across climatic and socio-economic scenarios for the 2050s. We find substantial consistency in locations and types of change even under the most divergent conditions, with results suggesting that climate change alone will lead to a contraction in the agricultural and forest area within Europe, particularly in southern Europe. This is partly offset by the introduction of socioeconomic changes that change both the demand for agricultural production, through changing food demand and net imports, and the efficiency of agricultural production. Simulated extensification and abandonment in the Mediterranean region is driven by future decreases in the relative profitability of the agricultural sector in southern Europe, owing to decreased productivity as a consequence of increased heat and drought stress and reduced irrigation water availability. The very low likelihood (< 33% probability) that current land use proportions in many parts of Europe will remain unchanged suggests that future policy should seek to promote and support the multifunctional role of agriculture and forests in different European regions, rather than focusing on increased productivity as a route to agricultural and forestry viability.

Developing a multi-pollutant conceptual framework for the selection and targeting of interventions in water industry catchment management schemes.

In recent years water companies have started to adopt catchment management to reduce diffuse pollution in drinking water supply areas. The heterogeneity of catchments and the range of pollutants that must be removed to meet the EU Drinking Water Directive (98/83/EC) limits make it difficult to prioritise areas of a catchment for intervention. Thus conceptual frameworks are required that can disaggregate the components of pollutant risk and help water companies make decisions about where to target interventions in their catchments to maximum effect. This paper demonstrates the concept of generalising pollutants in the same framework by reviewing key pollutant processes within a source-mobilisation-delivery context. From this, criteria are developed (with input from water industry professionals involved in catchment management) which highlights the need for a new water industry specific conceptual framework. The new CaRPoW (Catchment Risk to Potable Water) framework uses the Source-Mobilisation-Delivery concept as modular components of risk that work at two scales, source and mobilisation at the field scale and delivery at the catchment scale. Disaggregating pollutant processes permits the main components of risk to be ascertained so that appropriate interventions can be selected. The generic structure also allows for the outputs from different pollutants to be compared so that potential multiple benefits can be identified. CaRPow provides a transferable framework that can be used by water companies to cost-effectively target interventions under current conditions or under scenarios of land use or climate change.

Developing adaptive capacity within groundwater abstraction management systems.

Groundwater is a key resource for global agricultural production but is vulnerable to a changing climate. Given significant uncertainty about future impacts, bottom-up approaches for developing adaptive capacity are a more appropriate paradigm than seeking optimal adaptation strategies that assume a high ability to predict future risks or outcomes. This paper analyses the groundwater management practices adopted at multiple scales in East Anglia, UK, to identify wider lessons for developing adaptive capacity within groundwater management. Key elements are (1) horizontal and vertical integration within resource management; (2) making better use of water resources, at all scales, which vary in space and time; (3) embedding adaptation at multiple scales (from farm to national) within an adaptive management framework which allows strategies and management decisions to be updated in the light of changing understanding or conditions; (4) facilitating the ongoing formation through collective action of local Water Abstractor Groups; (5) promoting efficient use of scarce water resources by these groups, so as to increase their power to negotiate over possible short-term license restrictions; (6) controlling abstractions within a sustainable resource management framework, whether at national (regulatory) or at local (Abstractor Group) scales, that takes account of environmental water needs; and (7) reducing non-climate pressures which have the potential to further reduce the availability of usable groundwater.

Development and application of a catchment scale pesticide fate and transport model for use in drinking water risk assessment.

This paper describes the development and application of IMPT (Integrated Model for Pesticide Transport), a parameter-efficient tool for predicting diffuse-source pesticide concentrations in surface waters used for drinking water supply. The model was applied to a small UK headwater catchment with high frequency (8h) pesticide monitoring data and to five larger catchments (479-1653km(2)) with sampling approximately every 14days. Model performance was good for predictions of both flow (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency generally >0.59 and PBIAS <10%) and pesticide concentrations, although low sampling frequency in the larger catchments is likely to mask the true episodic nature of exposure. The computational efficiency of the model, along with the fact that most of its parameters can be derived from existing national soil property data mean that it can be used to rapidly predict pesticide exposure in multiple surface water resources to support operational and strategic risk assessments.

Using a linked soil model emulator and unsaturated zone leaching model to account for preferential flow when assessing the spatially distributed risk of pesticide leaching to groundwater in England and Wales.

Although macropore flow is recognized as an important process for the transport of pesticides through a wide range of soils, none of the existing spatially distributed methods for assessing the risk of pesticide leaching to groundwater account for this phenomenon. The present paper presents a spatially distributed modelling system for predicting pesticide losses to groundwater through micro- and macropore flow paths. The system combines a meta version of the mechanistic, dual porosity, preferential flow pesticide leaching model MACRO (the MACRO emulator), which describes pesticide transport and attenuation in the soil zone, to an attenuation factor leaching model for the unsaturated zone. The development of the emulator was based on the results of over 4000 MACRO model simulations. Model runs describe pesticide leaching for the range of soil types, climate regimes, pesticide properties and application patterns in England and Wales. Linking the MACRO emulator to existing spatial databases of soil, climate and compound-specific loads allowed the prediction of the concentration of pesticide leaching from the base of the soil profile (at 1 m depth) for a wide range of pesticides. Attenuation and retardation of the pesticide during transit through the unsaturated zone to the watertable was simulated using the substrate attenuation factor model AQUAT. The MACRO emulator simulated pesticide loss in 10 of 12 lysimeter soil-pesticide combinations, for which pesticide leaching was shown to occur and also successfully predicted no loss from 3 soil-pesticide combinations. Although the qualitative aspect of leaching was satisfactorily predicted, actual pesticide concentrations in leachate were relatively poorly predicted. At the national scale, the linked MACRO emulator/AQUAT system was found to predict the relative order of, and realistic regional patterns of, pesticide leaching for atrazine, isoproturon, chlorotoluron and lindane. The methodology provides a first-step assessment of the potential for pesticide leaching to groundwater in England and Wales. Further research is required to improve the modelling concept proposed. The system can be used to refine regional groundwater monitoring system designs and sampling strategies and improve the cost-effectiveness of the measures needed to achieve 'good status' of groundwater quality as required by the Water Framework Directive.

An assessment of the risk to surface water ecosystems of groundwater P in the UK and Ireland.

A good quantitative understanding of phosphorus (P) delivery is essential in the design of management strategies to prevent eutrophication of terrestrial freshwaters. Most research to date has focussed on surface and near-surface hydrological pathways, under the common assumption that little P leaches to groundwater. Here we present an analysis of national patterns of groundwater phosphate concentrations in England and Wales, Scotland, and the Republic of Ireland, which shows that many groundwater bodies have median P concentrations above ecologically significant thresholds for freshwaters. The potential risk to receptor ecosystems of high observed groundwater P concentrations will depend on (1) whether the observed groundwater P concentrations are above the natural background; (2) the influence of local hydrogeological settings (pathways) on the likelihood of significant P transfers to the receptor; (3) the sensitivity of the receptor to P; and, (4) the relative magnitude of P transfers from groundwater compared to other P sources. Our research suggests that, although there is often a high degree of uncertainty in many of these factors, groundwater has the potential to trigger and/or maintain eutrophication under certain scenarios: the assumption of groundwater contribution to river flows as a ubiquitous source of dilution for P-rich surface runoff must therefore be questioned. Given the regulatory importance of P concentrations in triggering ecological quality thresholds, there is an urgent need for detailed monitoring and research to characterise the extent and magnitude of different groundwater P sources, the likelihood for P transformation and/or storage along aquifer-hyporheic zone flow paths and to identify the subsequent risk to receptor ecosystems.