A Propensity Score Approach and a Partitioned Approach for the Self-Controlled Case Series Design to Evaluate Safety of a 2-dose Vaccine Series: Application to myocarditis/pericarditis following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination.

The assumption that serious adverse events (SAEs) do not affect subsequent exposure might not hold when evaluating 2-dose vaccine safety through a self-controlled case series (SCCS) design. To address this, we developed: 1) propensity score SCCS (PS-SCCS) using a propensity score model involving SAEs during the risk interval after dose 1 (${R}_1\Big)$, and 2) partitioned SCCS (P-SCCS) estimating relative incidence (RI) separately for doses 1 and 2. In simulations, both provided unbiased RIs. Conversely, standard SCCS overestimated RI after dose 2. We applied these approaches to assess myocarditis/pericarditis risks after 2-dose mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in 12-39-year-olds. For BNT162b2, PS-SCCS yielded RIs of 1.85 (95% CI, 0.75-4.59) and 11.05 (95% CI, 6.53-18.68) 14 days after doses 1 and 2 respectively; standard SCCS provided similar RI after dose 1 and RI of 12.92 (95% CI, 7.56-22.09) after dose 2. For mRNA-1273, standard SCCS showed RIs of 1.96 (95% CI, 0.56-6.91) after dose 1 and 7.87 (95% CI, 3.33-18.57) after dose 2. As no mRNA-1273 recipients with SAEs during ${R}_1$ received dose 2, P-SCCS was used, yielding similar RI after dose 1 and RI of 6.48 (95% CI, 2.83-14.83) after dose 2. mRNA vaccines were associated with elevated myocarditis/pericarditis risks following dose 2 in 12-39-year-olds.

Effectiveness of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccination Against Virus-Associated Lower Respiratory Tract Infection Among Adults: A Case-Control Study.

BACKGROUND: Interactions of Streptococcus pneumoniae with viruses feature in the pathogenesis of numerous respiratory illnesses. METHODS: We undertook a case-control study among adults at Kaiser Permanente Southern California between 2015 and 2019. Case patients had diagnoses of lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI; including pneumonia or nonpneumonia LRTI diagnoses), with viral infections detected by multiplex polymerase chain reaction testing. Controls without LRTI diagnoses were matched to case patients by demographic and clinical attributes. We measured vaccine effectiveness (VE) for 13-valent (PCV13) against virus-associated LRTI by determining the adjusted odds ratio for PCV13 receipt, comparing case patients and controls. RESULTS: Primary analyses included 13 856 case patients with virus-associated LRTI and 227 887 matched controls. Receipt of PCV13 was associated with a VE of 24.9% (95% confidence interval, 18.4%-30.9%) against virus-associated pneumonia and 21.5% (10.9%-30.9%) against other (nonpneumonia) virus-associated LRTIs. We estimated VEs of 26.8% (95% confidence interval, 19.9%-33.1%) and 18.6% (9.3%-27.0%) against all virus-associated LRTI episodes diagnosed in inpatient and outpatient settings, respectively. We identified statistically significant protection against LRTI episodes associated with influenza A and B viruses, endemic human coronaviruses, parainfluenza viruses, human metapneumovirus, and enteroviruses but not respiratory syncytial virus or adenoviruses. CONCLUSIONS: Among adults, PCV13 conferred moderate protection against virus-associated LRTI. The impacts of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines may be mediated, in part, by effects on polymicrobial interactions between pneumococci and respiratory viruses.

Burden of Lower Respiratory Tract Infections Preventable by Adult Immunization With 15- and 20-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Updated recommendations of the US Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices indicate that all adults aged ≥65 years and adults aged <65 years with comorbid conditions should receive 15- and 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV15/20). We aimed to assess the potential impact of these recommendations on the burden of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) among adults. METHODS: We estimated the incidence of LRTI cases and associated hospital admissions among enrollees of Kaiser Permanente Southern California from 2016 through 2019. We used a counterfactual inference framework to estimate excess LRTI-associated risk of death up to 180 days after diagnosis. We used prior estimates of PCV13 effectiveness against LRTI to model potential direct effects of PCV15/20 by age group and risk status. RESULTS: Use of PCV15 and PCV20, respectively, could prevent 89.3 (95% confidence interval, 41.3-131.8) and 108.6 (50.4-159.1) medically attended LRTI cases; 21.9 (10.1-32.0) and 26.6 (12.4-38.7) hospitalized LRTI cases; and 7.1 (3.3-10.5) and 8.7 (4.0-12.7) excess LRTI-associated deaths, each per 10 000 person-years. Among at-risk adults aged <65 years, use of PCV15 and PCV20 could prevent 85.7 (39.6-131.5) and 102.7 (47.8-156.7) medically attended LRTI cases per 10 000 person-years; 5.1 (2.4-8.6) and 6.2 (2.8-10.2) LRTI hospitalizations per 10 000 person-years, and 0.9 (0.4-1.4) and 1.1 (0.5-1.7) excess LRTI-associated deaths per 10 000 person-years. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest recent recommendations, including PCV15/20 within adult pneumococcal vaccine series, may substantially reduce LRTI burden.

Prevention of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Among Older Adults Receiving Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Suggests Interactions Between Streptococcus pneumoniae and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in the Respiratory Tract.

BACKGROUND: While secondary pneumococcal pneumonia occurs less commonly after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) than after other viral infections, it remains unclear whether other interactions occur between severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and Streptococcus pneumoniae. METHODS: We probed potential interactions between these pathogens among adults aged ≥65 years by measuring associations of COVID-19 outcomes with pneumococcal vaccination (13-valent conjugate vaccine [PCV13] and 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine [PPSV23]). We estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) using Cox proportional hazards models with doubly robust inverse-propensity weighting. We assessed effect modification by antibiotic exposure to further test the biologic plausibility of a causal role for pneumococci. RESULTS: Among 531 033 adults, there were 3677 COVID-19 diagnoses, leading to 1075 hospitalizations and 334 fatalities, between 1 March and 22 July 2020. Estimated aHRs for COVID-19 diagnosis, hospitalization, and mortality associated with prior PCV13 receipt were 0.65 (95% confidence interval [CI], .59-.72), 0.68 (95% CI, .57-.83), and 0.68 (95% CI, .49-.95), respectively. Prior PPSV23 receipt was not associated with protection against the 3 outcomes. COVID-19 diagnosis was not associated with prior PCV13 within 90 days following antibiotic receipt, whereas aHR estimates were 0.65 (95% CI, .50-.84) and 0.62 (95% CI, .56-.70) during the risk periods 91-365 days and >365 days, respectively, following antibiotic receipt. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced risk of COVID-19 among PCV13 recipients, transiently attenuated by antibiotic exposure, suggests that pneumococci may interact with SARS-CoV-2.

Effectiveness of 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Against Medically Attended Lower Respiratory Tract Infection and Pneumonia Among Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: Among older adults, 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) has been found efficacious against nonbacteremic pneumonia associated with vaccine-serotype pneumococci. However, the burden of lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) and pneumonia preventable by direct immunization of older adults continues to be debated. METHODS: We analyzed data from an open cohort of adults aged ≥65 years enrolled in Kaiser Permanente Southern California health plans from 2016 to 2019 who received PCV13 concordant with US Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices guidelines. We estimated PCV13 vaccine effectiveness (VE) via the adjusted hazard ratio for first LRTI and pneumonia episodes during each respiratory season, comparing PCV13-exposed and PCV13-unexposed time at risk for each participant using a self-matched inference framework. Analyses used Cox proportional hazards models, stratified by individual. RESULTS: Among 42 700 adults who met inclusion criteria, VE was 9.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.2% to 16.3%) against all-cause medically attended LRTI and 8.8% (95% CI, -.2% to 17.0%) against all-cause medically attended pneumonia. In contrast, we did not identify evidence of protection against LRTI and pneumonia following receipt of the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine. PCV13 prevented 0.7 (95% CI, .2 to 1.4) and 0.5 (95% CI, .0 to 1.0) cases of LRTI and pneumonia, respectively, per 100 vaccinated persons annually; over 5 years, 1 case of LRTI and 1 case of pneumonia were prevented for every 27 and 42 individuals vaccinated, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: PCV13 vaccination among older adults substantially reduced incidence of medically attended respiratory illness. Direct immunization of older adults is an effective strategy to combat residual disease burden associated with PCV13-type pneumococci.

Effectiveness of mRNA BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine up to 6 months in a large integrated health system in the USA: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine effectiveness studies have not differentiated the effect of the delta (B.1.617.2) variant and potential waning immunity in observed reductions in effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections. We aimed to evaluate overall and variant-specific effectiveness of BNT162b2 (tozinameran, Pfizer-BioNTech) against SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-related hospital admissions by time since vaccination among members of a large US health-care system. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we analysed electronic health records of individuals (≥12 years) who were members of the health-care organisation Kaiser Permanente Southern California (CA, USA), to assess BNT162b2 vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-related hospital admissions for up to 6 months. Participants were required to have 1 year or more previous membership of the organisation. Outcomes comprised SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive tests and COVID-19-related hospital admissions. Effectiveness calculations were based on hazard ratios from adjusted Cox models. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04848584. FINDINGS: Between Dec 14, 2020, and Aug 8, 2021, of 4 920 549 individuals assessed for eligibility, we included 3 436 957 (median age 45 years [IQR 29-61]; 1 799 395 [52·4%] female and 1 637 394 [47·6%] male). For fully vaccinated individuals, effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections was 73% (95% CI 72-74) and against COVID-19-related hospital admissions was 90% (89-92). Effectiveness against infections declined from 88% (95% CI 86-89) during the first month after full vaccination to 47% (43-51) after 5 months. Among sequenced infections, vaccine effectiveness against infections of the delta variant was high during the first month after full vaccination (93% [95% CI 85-97]) but declined to 53% [39-65] after 4 months. Effectiveness against other (non-delta) variants the first month after full vaccination was also high at 97% (95% CI 95-99), but waned to 67% (45-80) at 4-5 months. Vaccine effectiveness against hospital admissions for infections with the delta variant for all ages was high overall (93% [95% CI 84-96]) up to 6 months. INTERPRETATION: Our results provide support for high effectiveness of BNT162b2 against hospital admissions up until around 6 months after being fully vaccinated, even in the face of widespread dissemination of the delta variant. Reduction in vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections over time is probably primarily due to waning immunity with time rather than the delta variant escaping vaccine protection. FUNDING: Pfizer.

Hospitalization and Emergency Department Encounters for COVID-19 After Paxlovid Treatment - California, December 2021-May 2022.

Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Paxlovid) is a combination protease inhibitor that blocks replication of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) and has been shown to reduce the risk for hospitalization and death among patients with mild to moderate COVID-19 who are at risk for progression to severe disease* (1). In December 2021, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for early treatment with Paxlovid among persons with mild to moderate cases of COVID-19 who are at high risk for progression to severe disease (2). FDA and a small number of published case reports have documented recurrence of COVID-19 symptoms or a positive viral test result (COVID-19 rebound) 2-8 days after recovery or a negative SARS-CoV-2 test result among patients treated with Paxlovid (3-7); however, large-scale studies investigating severe illness after Paxlovid treatment are limited. This study used electronic health record (EHR) data from a large integrated health care system in California (Kaiser Permanente Southern California [KPSC]) to describe hospital admissions and emergency department (ED) encounters related to SARS-CoV-2 infections during the 5-15 days after pharmacy dispensation of a 5-day treatment course of Paxlovid. Among 5,287 persons aged ≥12 years who received Paxlovid during December 31, 2021-May 26, 2022, 73% had received ≥3 doses of COVID-19 vaccine†, and 8% were unvaccinated. During the 5-15 days after Paxlovid treatment was dispensed, six hospitalizations and 39 ED encounters considered to be related to SARS-CoV-2 infection were identified, representing <1% of all patients to whom Paxlovid treatment was dispensed during the study period. Among these 45 persons, 21 (47%) were aged ≥65 years, and 35 (78%) had at least one underlying medical condition§ (8). This study found that hospitalization or ED encounters for COVID-19 during the 5-15 days after Paxlovid treatment was dispensed for mild to moderate COVID-19 illness were rarely identified. When administered as an early-stage treatment, Paxlovid might prevent COVID-19-related hospitalization among persons with mild to moderate cases of COVID-19 who are at risk for progression to severe disease.

Distribution of SARS-CoV-2 Variants in a Large Integrated Health Care System - California, March-July 2021.

Data from observational studies demonstrate that variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, have evolved rapidly across many countries (1,2). The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant of concern is more transmissible than previously identified variants,* and as of September 2021, is the predominant variant in the United States.† Studies characterizing the distribution and severity of illness caused by SARS-CoV-2 variants, particularly the Delta variant, are limited in the United States (3), and are subject to limitations related to study setting, specimen collection, study population, or study period (4-7). This study used whole genome sequencing (WGS) data on SARS-CoV-2-positive specimens collected across Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC), a large integrated health care system, to describe the distribution and risk of hospitalization associated with SARS-CoV-2 variants during March 4-July 21, 2021, by patient vaccination status. Among 13,039 SARS-CoV-2-positive specimens identified from KPSC patients during this period, 6,798 (52%) were sequenced and included in this report. Of these, 5,994 (88%) were collected from unvaccinated persons, 648 (10%) from fully vaccinated persons, and 156 (2%) from partially vaccinated persons. Among all sequenced specimens, the weekly percentage of B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant infections increased from 20% to 67% during March 4-May 19, 2021. During April 15-July 21, 2021, the weekly percentage of Delta variant infections increased from 0% to 95%. During March 4-July 21, 2021, the weekly percentage of variants was similar among fully vaccinated and unvaccinated persons, but the Delta variant was more commonly identified among vaccinated persons then unvaccinated persons overall, relative to other variants. The Delta variant was more prevalent among younger persons, with the highest percentage (55%) identified among persons aged 18-44 years. Infections attributed to the Delta variant were also more commonly identified among non-Hispanic Black persons, relative to other variants. These findings reinforce the importance of continued monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 variants and implementing multiple COVID-19 prevention strategies, particularly during the current period in which Delta is the predominant variant circulating in the United States.

Obesity and Mortality Among Patients Diagnosed With COVID-19: Results From an Integrated Health Care Organization.

BACKGROUND: Obesity, race/ethnicity, and other correlated characteristics have emerged as high-profile risk factors for adverse coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-associated outcomes, yet studies have not adequately disentangled their effects. OBJECTIVE: To determine the adjusted effect of body mass index (BMI), associated comorbidities, time, neighborhood-level sociodemographic factors, and other factors on risk for death due to COVID-19. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Kaiser Permanente Southern California, a large integrated health care organization. PATIENTS: Kaiser Permanente Southern California members diagnosed with COVID-19 from 13 February to 2 May 2020. MEASUREMENTS: Multivariable Poisson regression estimated the adjusted effect of BMI and other factors on risk for death at 21 days; models were also stratified by age and sex. RESULTS: Among 6916 patients with COVID-19, there was a J-shaped association between BMI and risk for death, even after adjustment for obesity-related comorbidities. Compared with patients with a BMI of 18.5 to 24 kg/m2, those with BMIs of 40 to 44 kg/m2 and greater than 45 kg/m2 had relative risks of 2.68 (95% CI, 1.43 to 5.04) and 4.18 (CI, 2.12 to 8.26), respectively. This risk was most striking among those aged 60 years or younger and men. Increased risk for death associated with Black or Latino race/ethnicity or other sociodemographic characteristics was not detected. LIMITATION: Deaths occurring outside a health care setting and not captured in membership files may have been missed. CONCLUSION: Obesity plays a profound role in risk for death from COVID-19, particularly in male patients and younger populations. Our capitated system with more equalized health care access may explain the absence of effect of racial/ethnic and socioeconomic disparities on death. Our data highlight the leading role of severe obesity over correlated risk factors, providing a target for early intervention. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Roche-Genentech.

Correction: Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Health Care Utilization in a Large Integrated Health Care System: Retrospective Cohort Study.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.2196/26558.].

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Health Care Utilization in a Large Integrated Health Care System: Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an abrupt reduction in the use of in-person health care, accompanied by a corresponding surge in the use of telehealth services. However, the extent and nature of changes in health care utilization during the pandemic may differ by care setting. Knowledge of the impact of the pandemic on health care utilization is important to health care organizations and policy makers. OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study are (1) to evaluate changes in in-person health care utilization and telehealth visits during the COVID-19 pandemic and (2) to assess the difference in changes in health care utilization between the pandemic year 2020 and the prepandemic year 2019. METHODS: We retrospectively assembled a cohort consisting of members of a large integrated health care organization, who were enrolled between January 6 and November 2, 2019 (prepandemic year), and between January 5 and October 31, 2020 (pandemic year). The rates of visits were calculated weekly for four settings: inpatient, emergency department (ED), outpatient, and telehealth. Using Poisson models, we assessed the impact of the pandemic on health care utilization during the early days of the pandemic and conducted difference-in-deference (DID) analyses to measure the changes in health care utilization, adjusting for the trend of health care utilization in the prepandemic year. RESULTS: In the early days of the pandemic, we observed significant reductions in inpatient, ED, and outpatient utilization (by 30.2%, 37.0%, and 80.9%, respectively). By contrast, there was a 4-fold increase in telehealth visits between weeks 8 (February 23) and 12 (March 22) in 2020. DID analyses revealed that after adjusting for prepandemic secular trends, the reductions in inpatient, ED, and outpatient visit rates in the early days of the pandemic were 1.6, 8.9, and 367.2 visits per 100 person-years (P<.001), respectively, while the increase in telehealth visits was 272.9 visits per 100 person-years (P<.001). Further analyses suggested that the increase in telehealth visits offset the reduction in outpatient visits by week 26 (June 28, 2020). CONCLUSIONS: In-person health care utilization decreased drastically during the early period of the pandemic, but there was a corresponding increase in telehealth visits during the same period. By end-June 2020, the combined outpatient and telehealth visits had recovered to prepandemic levels.

Disparities in Outpatient and Telehealth Visits During the COVID-19 Pandemic in a Large Integrated Health Care Organization: Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Dramatic decreases in outpatient visits and sudden increases in telehealth visits were observed during the COVID-19 pandemic, but it was unclear whether these changes differed by patient demographics and socioeconomic status. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the impact of the pandemic on in-person outpatient and telehealth visits (telephone and video) by demographic characteristics and household income in a diverse population. METHODS: We calculated weekly rates of outpatient and telehealth visits by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and neighborhood-level median household income among members of Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC) from January 5, 2020, to October 31, 2020, and the corresponding period in 2019. We estimated the percentage change in visit rates during the early pandemic period (March 22 to April 25, 2020) and the late pandemic period (October 4 to October 31, 2020) from the prepandemic period (January 5 to March 7, 2020) in Poisson regression models for each subgroup while adjusting for seasonality using 2019 data. We examined if the changes in visit rates differed by subgroups statistically by comparing their 95% CIs. RESULTS: Among 4.56 million KPSC members enrolled in January 2020, 15.0% (n=682,947) were ≥65 years old, 51.5% (n=2,345,020) were female, 39.4% (n=1,795,994) were Hispanic, and 7.7% (n=350,721) lived in an area of median household income

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Health Care Utilization in the Vaccine Safety Datalink: Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on health care utilization is important to health care organizations and policy makers for strategic planning, as well as to researchers when designing studies that use observational electronic health record data during the pandemic period. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate the changes in health care utilization across all care settings among a large, diverse, and insured population in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study within 8 health care organizations participating in the Vaccine Safety Datalink Project using electronic health record data from members of all ages from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2021. The visit rates per person-year were calculated monthly during the study period for 4 health care settings combined as well as by inpatient, emergency department (ED), outpatient, and telehealth settings, both among all members and members without COVID-19. Difference-in-difference analysis and interrupted time series analysis were performed to assess the changes in visit rates from the prepandemic period (January 2017 to February 2020) to the early pandemic period (April-December 2020) and the later pandemic period (July-December 2021), respectively. An exploratory analysis was also conducted to assess trends through June 2023 at one of the largest sites, Kaiser Permanente Southern California. RESULTS: The study included more than 11 million members from 2017 to 2021. Compared with the prepandemic period, we found reductions in visit rates during the early pandemic period for all in-person care settings. During the later pandemic period, overall use reached 8.36 visits per person-year, exceeding the prepandemic level of 7.49 visits per person-year in 2019 (adjusted percent change 5.1%, 95% CI 0.6%-9.9%); inpatient and ED visits returned to prepandemic levels among all members, although they remained low at 0.095 and 0.241 visits per person-year, indicating a 7.5% and 8% decrease compared to pre-pandemic levels among members without COVID-19, respectively. Telehealth visits, which were approximately 42% of the volume of outpatient visits during the later pandemic period, were increased by 97.5% (95% CI 86.0%-109.7%) from 0.865 visits per person-year in 2019 to 2.35 visits per person-year in the later pandemic period. The trends in Kaiser Permanente Southern California were similar to those of the entire study population. Visit rates from January 2022 to June 2023 were stable and appeared to be a continuation of the use levels observed at the end of 2021. CONCLUSIONS: Telehealth services became a mainstay of the health care system during the late COVID-19 pandemic period. Inpatient and ED visits returned to prepandemic levels, although they remained low among members without evidence of COVID-19. Our findings provide valuable information for strategic resource allocation for postpandemic patient care and for designing observational studies involving the pandemic period.

Estimated Effectiveness of the BNT162b2 XBB Vaccine Against COVID-19.

Importance: Data describing the early additional protection afforded by the recently recommended BNT162b2 XBB vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech; 2023-2024 formulation) are limited. Objective: To estimate the association between receipt of the BNT162b2 XBB vaccine and medically attended COVID-19 outcomes among US adults 18 years and older. Design, Setting, and Participants: This test-negative case-control study was performed to estimate the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 XBB vaccine against COVID-19-associated hospitalization and emergency department (ED) or urgent care (UC) encounters among adults in the Kaiser Permanente Southern California health system between October 10, 2023, and December 10, 2023. Cases were those presenting with an acute respiratory illness and who had a positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction test; controls had an acute respiratory illness but tested negative for SARS-CoV-2. Exposure: The primary exposure was receipt of the BNT162b2 XBB vaccine compared with not receiving an XBB vaccine of any kind, regardless of prior COVID-19 vaccination or SARS-CoV-2 infection history. Receipt of prior (non-XBB) versions of COVID-19 vaccines was also compared with being unvaccinated to estimate remaining protection from older vaccines. Main Outcomes and Measures: Analyses for cases and controls were conducted separately for COVID-19 hospital admissions and ED/UC encounters. Adjusted odds ratios and 95% CIs were estimated from multivariable logistic regression models that were adjusted for patient demographic and clinical characteristics. Estimation of vaccine effectiveness was calculated as 1 - odds ratio × 100%. Results: Among 2854 cases and 15 345 controls (median [IQR] age, 56 [37-72] years; 10 658 [58.6%] female), adjusted estimation of effectiveness of the BNT162b2 XBB vaccine received a median of 34 days prior vs not having received an XBB vaccine of any kind was 62% (95% CI, 32%-79%) against COVID-19 hospitalization and 58% (95% CI, 48%-67%) for ED/UC visits. Compared with being unvaccinated, those who had received only older versions of COVID-19 vaccines did not show statistically significant reduced risk of COVID-19 outcomes, including hospital admission. Conclusions and Relevance: Findings of this case-control study reaffirm current recommendations for broad age-based use of annually updated COVID-19 vaccines given that (1) the BNT162b2 XBB vaccine provided statistically significant additional protection against a range of COVID-19 outcomes and (2) older versions of COVID-19 vaccines offered little, if any, long-term protection, including against hospital admission, regardless of the number or type of prior doses received.

Ischemic Stroke After Bivalent COVID-19 Vaccination: Self-Controlled Case Series Study.

BACKGROUND: The potential association between bivalent COVID-19 vaccination and ischemic stroke remains uncertain, despite several studies conducted thus far. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate the risk of ischemic stroke following bivalent COVID-19 vaccination during the 2022-2023 season. METHODS: A self-controlled case series study was conducted among members aged 12 years and older who experienced ischemic stroke between September 1, 2022, and March 31, 2023, in a large health care system. Ischemic strokes were identified using International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision codes in emergency departments and inpatient settings. Exposures were Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna bivalent COVID-19 vaccination. Risk intervals were prespecified as 1-21 days and 1-42 days after bivalent vaccination; all non-risk-interval person-time served as the control interval. The incidence of ischemic stroke was compared in the risk interval and control interval using conditional Poisson regression. We conducted overall and subgroup analyses by age, history of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and coadministration of influenza vaccine. When an elevated risk was detected, we performed a chart review of ischemic strokes and analyzed the risk of chart-confirmed ischemic stroke. RESULTS: With 4933 ischemic stroke events, we found no increased risk within the 21-day risk interval for the 2 vaccines and by subgroups. However, risk of ischemic stroke was elevated within the 42-day risk interval among individuals aged younger than 65 years with coadministration of Pfizer-BioNTech bivalent and influenza vaccines on the same day; the relative incidence (RI) was 2.13 (95% CI 1.01-4.46). Among those who also had a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection, the RI was 3.94 (95% CI 1.10-14.16). After chart review, the RIs were 2.34 (95% CI 0.97-5.65) and 4.27 (95% CI 0.97-18.85), respectively. Among individuals aged younger than 65 years who received Moderna bivalent vaccine and had a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection, the RI was 2.62 (95% CI 1.13-6.03) before chart review and 2.24 (95% CI 0.78-6.47) after chart review. Stratified analyses by sex did not show a significantly increased risk of ischemic stroke after bivalent vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: While the point estimate for the risk of chart-confirmed ischemic stroke was elevated in a risk interval of 1-42 days among individuals younger than 65 years with coadministration of Pfizer-BioNTech bivalent and influenza vaccines on the same day and among individuals younger than 65 years who received Moderna bivalent vaccine and had a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection, the risk was not statistically significant. The potential association between bivalent vaccination and ischemic stroke in the 1-42-day analysis warrants further investigation among individuals younger than 65 years with influenza vaccine coadministration and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. Furthermore, the findings on ischemic stroke risk after bivalent COVID-19 vaccination underscore the need to evaluate monovalent COVID-19 vaccine safety during the 2023-2024 season.

Predictors of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir receipt among COVID-19 patients in a large US health system.

A clear understanding of real-world uptake of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir for treatment of SARS-CoV-2 can inform treatment allocation strategies and improve interpretation of effectiveness studies. We used data from a large US healthcare system to describe nirmatrelvir-ritonavir dispenses among all SARS-CoV-2 positive patients aged ≥ 12 years meeting recommended National Institutes of Health treatment eligibility criteria for the study period between 1 January and 31 December, 2022. Overall, 10.9% (N = 34,791/319,900) of treatment eligible patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections received nirmatrelvir-ritonavir over the study period. Although uptake of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir increased over time, by the end of 2022, less than a quarter of treatment eligible patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections had received nirmatrelvir-ritonavir. Across patient demographics, treatment was generally consistent with tiered treatment guidelines, with dispenses concentrated among patients aged ≥ 65 years (14,706/63,921; 23.0%), and with multiple comorbidities (10,989/54,431; 20.1%). However, neighborhoods of lower socioeconomic status (upper third of neighborhood deprivation index [NDI]) had between 12% (95% CI: 7-18%) and 28% (25-32%) lower odds of treatment dispense over the time periods studied compared to the lower third of NDI distribution, even after accounting for demographic and clinical characteristics. A limited chart review (N = 40) confirmed that in some cases a decision not to treat was appropriate and aligned with national guidelines to use clinical judgement on a case-by-case basis. There is a need to enhance patient and provider awareness on the availability and benefits of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir for the treatment of COVID-19 illness.

Immune escape and attenuated severity associated with the SARS-CoV-2 BA.2.86/JN.1 lineage.

The SARS-CoV-2 BA.2.86 lineage, and its sublineage JN.1 in particular, achieved widespread transmission in the US during winter 2023-24. However, the increase in infections was not accompanied by increases in COVID-19 hospitalizations and mortality commensurate with prior waves. To understand shifts in COVID-19 epidemiology associated with JN.1 emergence, we compared characteristics and clinical outcomes of time-matched cases infected with BA.2.86- derived lineages (predominantly representing JN.1) versus co-circulating XBB-derived lineages in December, 2023 and January, 2024. Cases infected with BA.2.86-derived lineages received greater numbers of COVID-19 vaccine doses, including XBB.1.5-targeted and BA.4/BA.5-targeted boosters, in comparison to cases infected with XBB-derived lineages. Additionally, cases infected with BA.2.86-derived lineages experienced greater numbers of documented prior SARS-CoV-2 infections. These associations of BA.2.86-derived lineages with immune escape were confirmed when comparing cases diagnosed during periods when JN.1 was the predominant circulating lineage to cases diagnosed during November, 2023. Cases infected with BA.2.86-derived lineages, or during periods when JN.1 was the predominant circulating lineage, also experienced lower risk of progression to severe clinical outcomes requiring emergency department consultations or hospital admission. Sensitivity analyses suggested under-ascertainment of prior infections, even if differential between cases infected with BA.2.86-derived lineages and non-BA.2.86 lineages, could not explain this apparent attenuation of severity. Our findings implicate escape from immunity acquired from prior vaccination or infection in the emergence of the JN.1 lineage and suggest infections with this lineage are less likely to experience clinically-severe disease. Monitoring of immune escape and clinical severity in emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants remains a priority to inform responses.

Mortality risk after COVID-19 vaccination: A self-controlled case series study.

BACKGROUND: Although previous studies found no-increased mortality risk after COVID-19 vaccination, residual confounding bias might have impacted the findings. Using a modified self-controlled case series (SCCS) design, we assessed the risk of non-COVID-19 mortality, all-cause mortality, and four cardiac-related death outcomes after primary series COVID-19 vaccination. METHODS: We analyzed all deaths between December 14, 2020, and August 11, 2021, among individuals from eight Vaccine Safety Datalink sites. Demographic characteristics of deaths in recipients of COVID-19 vaccines and unvaccinated individuals were reported. We conducted SCCS analyses by vaccine type and death outcomes and reported relative incidences (RI). The observation period for death spanned from the dates of emergency use authorization to the end of the study period (August 11, 2021) without censoring the observation period upon death. We pre-specified a primary risk interval of 28-day and a secondary risk interval of 14-day after each vaccination dose. Adjusting for seasonality in mortality analyses is crucial because death rates vary over time. Deaths among unvaccinated individuals were included in SCCS analyses to account for seasonality by incorporating calendar month in the models. RESULTS: For Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT162b2), RIs of non-COVID-19 mortality, all-cause mortality, and four cardiac-related death outcomes were below 1 and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) excluded 1 across both doses and both risk intervals. For Moderna (mRNA-1273), RI point estimates of all outcomes were below 1, although the 95 % CIs of two RI estimates included 1: cardiac-related (RI = 0.78, 95 % CI, 0.58-1.04) and non-COVID-19 cardiac-related mortality (RI = 0.80, 95 % CI, 0.60-1.08) 14 days after the second dose in individuals without pre-existing cancer and heart disease. For Janssen (Ad26.COV2.S), RIs of four cardiac-related death outcomes ranged from 0.94 to 0.98 for the 14-day risk interval, and 0.68 to 0.72 for the 28-day risk interval and 95 % CIs included 1. CONCLUSION: Using a modified SCCS design and adjusting for temporal trends, no-increased risk was found for non-COVID-19 mortality, all-cause mortality, and four cardiac-related death outcomes among recipients of the three COVID-19 vaccines used in the US.

Increased vaccine sensitivity of an emerging SARS-CoV-2 variant.

Host immune responses are a key source of selective pressure driving pathogen evolution. Emergence of many SARS-CoV-2 lineages has been associated with enhancements in their ability to evade population immunity resulting from both vaccination and infection. Here we show diverging trends of escape from vaccine-derived and infection-derived immunity for the emerging XBB/XBB.1.5 Omicron lineage. Among 31,739 patients tested in ambulatory settings in Southern California from December, 2022 to February, 2023, adjusted odds of prior receipt of 2, 3, 4, and ≥5 COVID-19 vaccine doses were 10% (95% confidence interval: 1-18%), 11% (3-19%), 13% (3-21%), and 25% (15-34%) lower, respectively, among cases infected with XBB/XBB.1.5 than among cases infected with other co-circulating lineages. Similarly, prior vaccination was associated with greater point estimates of protection against progression to hospitalization among cases with XBB/XBB.1.5 than among non-XBB/XBB.1.5 cases (70% [30-87%] and 48% [7-71%], respectively, for recipients of ≥4 doses). In contrast, cases infected with XBB/XBB.1.5 had 17% (11-24%) and 40% (19-65%) higher adjusted odds of having experienced 1 and ≥2 prior documented infections, respectively, including with pre-Omicron variants. As immunity acquired from SARS-CoV-2 infection becomes increasingly widespread, fitness costs associated with enhanced vaccine sensitivity in XBB/XBB.1.5 may be offset by increased ability to evade infection-derived host responses.