Changes in frailty among community-dwelling Chinese older adults and its predictors: evidence from a two-year longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: It is important to clarify the transitions and related factors of frailty for prevention of frailty. We evaluated the transitions of frailty among community-dwelling older adults and examined the predictors of the transitions. METHODS: A cohort study was conducted among 3988 community residents aged ≥60 years during 2015 and 2017. A multiple deficits approach was used to construct the Frailty Index (FI) according to the methodology of FI construction, and sociodemographic characteristics and lifestyles were also collected in 2015. After 2-year follow-up, the transitions of frailty between baseline and were evaluated. Multinomial logistic regressions were used to examine associations between predictors and the transitions of frailty. RESULTS: The proportion of robust, prefrail, and frail was 79.5, 16.4, and 4.1% among 3988 participants at baseline, which changed to 68.2, 23.0, and 8.8% after 2 years with 127 deaths and 23 dropped out. Twelve kinds of transitions from the three frailty statuses at baseline to four outcomes at follow-up (including death) significantly differed within each of gender and age group, as well between genders and age groups. Among these, 7.8% of prefrail or frail elders improved, 70.0% retained their frailty status, and 22.2% of robust or prefrail elders worsened in frailty status. In multivariable models, age was significantly associated with changes in frailty except for in the frail group; higher educational level and working predicted a lower risk of robust worsening. Of the lifestyle predictors, no shower facilities at home predicted a higher risk of robust worsening; more frequent physical exercise predicted a lower risk of robust worsening and a higher chance of frailty improvement; more frequent neighbor interaction predicted a lower risk of robust worsening and prefrail worsening; and more frequent social participation predicted a higher chance of prefrail improvement. CONCLUSIONS: The status of frailty was reversible among community-dwelling elderly, and sociodemographic and lifestyle factors were related to changes in frailty. These findings help health practitioners to recognize susceptible individuals in a community and provide health promotional planning to target aged populations.

Association between anemia and frailty in 13,175 community-dwelling adults aged 50 years and older in China.

BACKGROUND: Anemia and frailty contribute to poor health outcomes in older adults; however, most current research in lower income countries has concentrated on anemia or frailty alone rather than in combination. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between anemia and frailty in community-dwelling adults aged 50 years and older in China. METHODS: The study population was sourced from the 2007/10 SAGE China Wave 1. Anemia was defined as hemoglobin less than 13 g/dL for men and less than 12 g/dL for women. A Frailty Index (FI) was compiled to assess frailty. The association between anemia and frailty was evaluated using a 2-level hierarchical logistic model. RESULTS: The prevalence of anemia was 31.0% (95%CI: 28.4, 33.8%) and frailty 14.7% (95%CI: 13.5, 16.0%). In the univariate regression model, presence of anemia was significantly associated with frailty (OR = 1.62, 95% CI: 1.39, 1.90) and the effect remained consistent after adjusting for various potential confounding factors including age, gender, residence, education, household wealth, fruit and vegetable intake, tobacco use, alcohol comsumption and physical activity (adjusted OR = 1.31, 95% CI:1.09, 1.57). Each 1 g/dL increase in hemoglobin concentration was associated with 4% decrease in the odds of frailty after adjusting for several confounding variables (adjusted OR = 0.96, 95% CI: 0.93, 0.99). CONCLUSION: Anemia and low hemoglobin concentrations were significantly associated with frailty. Therefore, health care professionals caring for older adults should increase screening, assessment of causes and treatment of anemia as one method of avoiding, delaying or even reversing frailty.

Associations of dietary intake and supplement use with post-therapy cognitive recovery in breast cancer survivors.

PURPOSE: Cognitive impairment induced by cancer therapy is common and can be long lasting after completion of therapy. Little is known on factors that influence recovery from the impairment. We evaluated the associations of dietary intake and supplement use with post-therapy cognitive recovery in a large cohort of breast cancer survivors. METHODS: This study included 1047 breast cancer patients aged 20-75 who were recruited to the Shanghai Breast Cancer Survival Study between 2002 and 2006 at approximately 6.5 months post-cancer diagnosis. Two cognitive assessments covering immediate memory, delayed memory, verbal fluency, and attention, were conducted at 18 and 36 months post-diagnosis. We used food frequency questionnaire to collect information on their dietary intake and supplement use between 18 and 36 months post-diagnosis. Linear regression models were used to examine the associations of dietary intake and supplement use with mean cognitive scores at 36 months post-diagnosis and with differences in cognitive scores between 18 and 36 months post-diagnosis. RESULTS: Higher vegetable, fruit and fish intake, supplementation with vitamin B and vitamin E, and tea drinking were associated with higher cognitive scores, while alcohol drinking was associated with lower cognitive scores at 36 months post-diagnosis. Vegetable intake was positively associated with improvement in verbal fluency, while tea drinking and fish oil supplementation were associated with greater improvements in delayed memory between 18 and 36 months post-diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that higher vegetable intake, tea drinking, and fish oil supplementation may help post-therapy cognitive recovery for cancer patients.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and associated risk factors among older adults in six low-and middle-income countries: results from SAGE Wave 1.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the leading causes of death worldwide. Our study aimed to investigate the prevalence of two conditions, angina and stroke, and relevant risk factors among older adults in six low- and middle- income countries(LMICs). METHODS: The data was from World Health Organization (WHO) Study on global AGEing and adult Health (SAGE) Wave 1 in China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russian Federation and South Africa. Presence of CVD was based on self-report of angina and stroke. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to examine the relationship between CVD and selected variables, including age, sex, urban/rural setting, household wealth, and risk factors such as smoking, alcohol drinking, fruit/vegetable intake, physical activity and BMI. RESULTS: The age standardized prevalence of angina ranged from 9.5 % (South Africa) to 47.5 % (Russian Federation), and for stoke from 2.0% (India) to 6.1 % (Russia). Hypertension was associated with angina in China, India and Russian Federation after adjustment for age, sex, urban/rural setting, education and marital status (OR ranging from 1.3 [1.1-1.6] in India to 3.8 [2.9-5.0] in Russian Federation), furthermore it was a risk factor of stroke in five countries except Mexico. Low or moderate physical activity were also associated with angina in China, and were also strongly associated with stroke in all countries except Ghana and India. Obesity had a stronger association with angina in Russian Federation and China(ORs were 1.5[1.1-2.0] and 1.2 [1.0-1.5] respectively), and increased the risk of stroke in China. Smoking was associated with angina in India and South Africa(ORs were 1.6[1.0-2.4] and 2.1 [1.2-3.6] respectively ), and was also a risk factor of stroke in South Africa. We observed a stronger association between frequent heavy drinking and stroke in India. Household income was associated with reduced odds of angina in China, India and Russian Federation, however higher household income was a risk factor of angina in South Africa. CONCLUSION: While the specific mix of risk factors contribute to disease prevalence in different ways in these six countries - they should all be targeted in multi-sectoral efforts to reduce the high burden of CVD in today's society.

Cancer incidence in urban Shanghai, 1973-2010: an updated trend and age-period-cohort effects.

BACKGROUND: To provide a comprehensive overview of temporal trends in cancer incidence during 1973-2010 in urban Shanghai. METHODS: The estimated annual percent changes (EAPCs) for the whole period and for the time segments in age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) were evaluated with Joinpoint analysis. Age-period-cohort (APC) models were modeled to examine the effects of age, period and birth cohort on cancer incidence. RESULTS: The overall ASR decreased slightly and significantly in males (EAPC of -0.41) but increased significantly in females (EAPC of 0.57) during 1973-2010 in urban Shanghai. The incidence trend was not linear and varied by time segments. During the most recent 10 years (2001-2010), the ASR in males decreased by 1.65% per year and stabilized in females. Incidence rates continued to decline during 1973-2010 for esophagus, stomach, and liver cancer in both sexes, as well as male lung cancer and cervix cancer. It should be noted that it was the first time to document a significant decline in lung cancer incidence among males during 1973-2010 with EAPC of -0.58%, and a notable upward for cervix cancer since 1996 with EAPC of 8.94%. Unfavorable trends in incidence were observed for the most common cancer sites in the 38 years period: colorectum, gallbladder & biliary tract, pancreas, kidney, bladder, brain & central nervous system (CNS), thyroid, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL), prostate, female breast, corpus uteri, and ovary. APC analysis showed age, period and birth cohort yielded different effects by cancer sites. CONCLUSIONS: The observed trends primarily reflect dramatic changes in socioeconomic development and lifestyles in urban Shanghai over the past four decades.

Contraceptive methods and ovarian cancer risk among Chinese women: A report from the Shanghai Women's Health Study.

Oral contraceptive use is associated with reduced ovarian cancer risk; however, associations with other contraceptive methods, such as intrauterine device (IUD) and tubal ligation, are less clear. Women in China differ from western women in regard to mechanisms and duration of use of contraception. This study was undertaken to evaluate associations between contraceptive methods and ovarian cancer risk using data from the prospective Shanghai Women's Health Study. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated by Cox proportional hazards regression. A total of 174 epithelial ovarian cancer cases were found to occur among 70,259 women who were followed-up for a total of 888,258 person-years. The majority of women had ever used any contraception (77.0%), including IUD (55.6%), oral contraceptive (20.4%), tubal ligation (14.7%) or contraceptive shots (2.6%). Ever use of any contraception was associated with a nonsignificant reduction in ovarian cancer risk (HR: 0.86, 95% CI: 0.60-1.24). Longer duration of IUD use was associated with lower ovarian cancer risk (p-value for trend = 0.04). Compared with never users, women with durations of IUD use longer than the median (20 years) were 38% less likely to develop ovarian cancer (HR: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.40-0.97). Based on the high prevalence and long duration of IUD use among Chinese women, we estimate a preventive fraction of 9.3%, corresponding to approximately 16 ovarian cancer cases. High prevalence of long-term IUD use may, therefore, contribute to the low incidence of ovarian cancer observed in China.

[Long-term survival analysis of different breast cancer molecular subtypes: Shanghai Breast Cancer Survival Study].

OBJECTIVES: To analyze the survival of breast cancer molecular subtypes and to examine the effect of therapy on the long-term prognosis of different subtypes. METHODS: This study included 3 586 breast cancer patients with estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR) and human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2) information in Shanghai Breast Cancer Survival Study, a population-based prospective cohort study established in 2002. Molecular subtypes, based on immunohistochemistry were categorized as follows: Luminal A, Luminal B, HER2, and triple-negative subtype. Characteristics and clinical data were collected through questionnaires and medical records at baseline survey and sequential follow-up surveys. Survival rates of different molecular subtypes were analyzed and compared with Log-rank tests. Multiple Cox regression models were used to evaluate the effect of therapy on long-term prognosis of different molecular subtypes. RESULTS: Among the 3 586 cases, Luminal A, Luminal B, HER2 and triple-negative breast cancer subtypes accounted for 54.5%, 16.6%, 13.9%, and 14.9%, respectively. With a median follow-up of 10.3 years (ranging 0.6 to 12.8 years), the 10-year overall survival (OS) rates for the four subtypes were 82.7% (95% CI: 80.9% to 84.4%), 77.7% (95% CI: 74.1% to 80.8%), 76.3% (95% CI: 72.3% to 79.8%), and 74.8% (95% CI: 70.9% to 78.3%), respectively. The 10-year disease to free survival (DFS) rates were 79.0% (95% CI: 76.7% to 81.0%), 76.0% (95% CI: 71.9% to 79.5%), 73.6% (95% CI: 68.9% to 77.7%), and 74.5% (95% CI: 69.4% to 78.9%), respectively. Significant difference in survival among four subtypes was observed (Log-rank test, P<0.01). Multivariate Cox regression indicated that hormonal therapy can significantly reduce the long-term risk of total mortality and recurrence breast cancer specific mortality among Luminal A subtype patients. Adjuvant chemotherapy could improve the long-term prognosis of triple-negative breast cancer. No benefit from radiotherapy was observed for four subtypes of breast cancer in terms of long-term prognosis. CONCLUSIONS: Molecular subtypes based on ER/PR/HER2 could provide important information to predict breast cancer prognosis. The hormonal status was an important basis for individualized therapy and precision medicine.

Associations of reproductive time events and intervals with breast cancer risk: a report from the Shanghai Breast Cancer Study.

While there is clear evidence for an association between later age at first live birth and increased breast cancer risk, associations with the timing of other reproductive events are less clear. As breast tissues undergo major structural and cellular changes during pregnancy, we examined associations between reproductive time events and intervals with breast cancer risk among parous women from the population-based Shanghai Breast Cancer Study (SBCS). Unconditional logistic regression was used to evaluate associations with breast cancer risk for 3,269 cases and 3,341 controls. In addition to later age at first live birth, later ages at first pregnancy and last pregnancy were significantly associated with increased breast cancer risk (p-trend = 0.002, 0.015, 0.008, respectively); longer intervals from menarche to first or last live birth were also associated with increased risk (p-trend < 0.001, =0.018, respectively). Analyses stratified by menopausal status and estrogen receptor (ER)/progesterone receptor (PR) status revealed that associations for later age at first pregnancy or live birth and longer intervals from menarche to first or last live birth occurred among premenopausal women and ER+/PR+ breast cancers, whereas the association for later age at last pregnancy occurred among postmenopausal women and women with ER+/PR- or ER-/PR+ breast cancers. Because of the high correlation with other reproductive variables, models did not include adjustment for age at first live birth; when included, the significance of all associations was attenuated. These findings suggest that while reproductive time events and intervals play an important role in breast cancer etiology, contributions may differ by menopausal status and hormone receptor status of breast cancers.

Frailty and risk of adverse outcomes among community-dwelling older adults in China: a comparison of four different frailty scales.

Background: Data on which frailty scales are most suitable for estimating risk in Chinese community populations remain limited. Herein we examined and compared four commonly used frailty scales in predicting adverse outcomes in a large population-based cohort of Chinese older adults. Methods: A total of 5402 subjects (mean age 66.3 ± 9.6 years, 46.6% male) from the WHO Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE) in Shanghai were studied. Frailty was measured using a 35-item frailty index (FI), the frailty phenotype (FP), FRAIL, and Tilburg Frailty Indicator (TFI). Multivariate logistic regression models were performed to evaluate the independent association between frailty and outcomes including 4-year disability, hospitalization, and 4- and 7-year all-cause mortality. The accuracy for predicting these outcomes was determined by evaluating the area under the curve (AUC). The prevalence of frailty, sensitivity, and specificity were calculated using our proposed cut-off points and other different values. Results: Prevalence of frailty ranged from 4.2% (FRAIL) to 16.9% (FI). FI, FRAIL and TFI were comparably associated with 4-year hospitalization, and 4- and 7-year mortality (adjusted odds ratios [aORs] 1.44-1.69, 1.91-2.22 and 1.85-2.88, respectively). FRAIL conferred the greatest risk of 4-year disability, followed by FI and TFI (aOR 5.55, 3.50, and 1.91, respectively). FP only independently predicted 4- and 7-year mortality (aOR 1.57 and 2.21, respectively). AUC comparisons showed that FI, followed by TFI and FRAIL, exhibited acceptable predictive accuracy for 4-year disability, 4- and 7-year mortality (AUCs 0.76-0.78, 0.71-0.71, 0.65-0.72, respectively), whereas all scales poorly predicted 4-year hospitalization (AUCs 0.53-0.57). For each scale, while specificity estimates (85.3-97.3%) were high and similar across all outcomes, their sensitivity estimates (6.3-56.8%) were not sufficient yet. Prevalence of frailty, sensitivity, and specificity varied considerably when different cut-off points were used. Conclusion: Frailty defined using any of the four scales was associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes. Although FI, FRAIL and TFI exhibited fair-to-moderate predictive accuracy and high specificity estimates, their sensitivity estimates were not sufficient yet. Overall, FI performed best in estimating risk, while TFI and FRAIL were additionally useful, the latter perhaps being more applicable to Chinese community-dwelling older adults.

Population-based survival for childhood cancer patients diagnosed during 2002-2005 in Shanghai, China.

BACKGROUND: There have been no population-based studies on cancer survival among children aged 0-14 years in China. In this study, we aimed to characterize the cancer survival among children in Shanghai. PROCEDURE: Childhood cancer cases registered by the Shanghai Cancer Registry between 2002 and 2005 and enrolled in the Shanghai Childhood Survival Study were included in this study. We used Kaplan-Meier product-limit method for survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards models for investigating the effects of various prognostic factors. RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 5.4 years (range 0-8.9 years). The 5-year observed survival for all childhood cancers combined was 55.7% (95% CI: 51.7-59.6%). For leukemia, lymphoma, and central nervous system tumors, the three most common types of childhood cancer, 5-year survival rates were 52.2%, 58.8%, and 41.2%, respectively. Higher 5-year survival rates were observed for epithelial cancer (88.9%), malignant renal tumors (86.7%), germ cell and other gonadal tumors (78.4%), and retinoblastoma (75.0%). Cancers with poor prognosis included sympathetic nervous system tumors (57.9%), soft tissue sarcoma (54.1%), bone tumors (52.6%), and liver cancer (33.3%). There were no significant differences between survival rates by gender and age groups. Compared with those reported in the USA and Europe, the survival rates for all cancers combined and the three most common types in Shanghai were lower. CONCLUSIONS: The survival rate for children aged 0-14 diagnosed with cancer in Shanghai during 2002-2005 was at the medium level. There was a substantial survival difference from childhood cancers between Shanghai and specific developed countries.

Dynamics of leukocyte telomere length in adults aged 50 and older: a longitudinal population-based cohort study.

It is well established from previous cross-sectional studies that telomeres shorten with age. However, due to a considerable inter-individual variation in telomere length (TL), its relationship with biological aging is difficult to unpick. Longitudinal repeated assessments of TL changes within individuals should augment our understanding of TL dynamics in aging. This study disentangles within- and inter-individual effects of age on leukocyte telomere length (LTL) dynamics in a large population-based cohort of older adults. A total of 4053 subjects aged 50 and older from the WHO Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE) in Shanghai were studied. Relative LTL (T/S ratio) was measured at baseline (2009-2010) and follow-up (2017-2018) by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. We used linear random slope models to analyze LTL dynamics in relation to age and sex and within-subject centering method to distinguish within- versus between-subject effects. We observed LTL shortening in 66.32%, maintenance in 11.23%, and elongation in 22.45% of the study participants. LTL declined significantly with age both cross-sectionally and longitudinally. More importantly, the longitudinal decline in LTL was much greater than the cross-sectional decline (- 0.017 (p < 0.001) versus - 0.002 (p < 0.001) per year). Furthermore, women had a lower within-subject LTL shortening rate than men (- 0.014 versus - 0.020 per year, p < 0.001). The within-individual longitudinal decline in LTL was much greater than the inter-individual cross-sectional decline, indicating that chronological age might impose a greater impact on LTL shortening than other influencing factors combined. Moreover, women showed a lower within-individual LTL shortening rate than men.

Associations of Lifestyle Factors With Cognition in Community-Dwelling Adults Aged 50 and Older: A Longitudinal Cohort Study.

In the absence of an effective treatment to alter the progressive course of cognitive decline and dementia, identification of modifiable risk factors that could promote healthy cognitive aging has become a public health research priority. This study seeks to comprehensively determine the contemporaneous associations of a broad spectrum of time-varying modifiable lifestyle factors with age-related cognitive decline in a large population-based cohort of older adults. A total of 5,711 subjects aged 50 and older from the WHO Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE) in Shanghai were studied. Repeated measures of lifestyle factors and cognitive performance were conducted in 2009-2010 and 2014-2015. Linear random slope models were used to evaluate the contemporaneous associations between time-varying lifestyle factors and cognitive performance. Person-mean centering method was used to disaggregate the between- and within-person effects in the time-varying lifestyle factors in the random slope models. We found that higher vegetable and fruit consumption, as well as higher level of physical activity were positively associated with all cognitive domains. Body mass index (BMI) was negatively associated with all cognitive domains, whereas waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) was negatively associated with verbal fluency score only. Sedentary time was negatively associated with digit span score but positively associated with verbal fluency score. The between-person effects seem to be more dominant than within-person effects. Overall, our findings suggest better management of multiple lifestyle factors may protect against cognitive decline in later life. Higher vegetable and fruit consumption and physical activity are protective, whereas obesity is detrimental to cognitive decline in older adults. This study underpins the development of multi-domain lifestyle recommendations to promote healthy cognitive aging.

Aging, obesity, and post-therapy cognitive recovery in breast cancer survivors.

Therapy-induced cognitive impairment is prevalent and long-lasting in cancer survivors, but factors affecting post-therapy cognitive recovery are unclear. We conducted this study to evaluate the associations of age, body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and physical activity (PA) with post-therapy cognitive changes in a population-based breast cancer (BC) survivor cohort. We collected information on PA, weight, height, waist and hip circumferences of 1286 BC survivors aged 20-75. We assessed their cognitive functions, including immediate memory, delayed memory, verbal fluency, and attention, at 18 and 36 months after cancer diagnosis. Linear regression models were used to examine the associations of age, BMI, WHR and PA with mean changes in cognitive scores from 18- to 36-month follow-up interview. We found that the post-therapy cognitive changes differed by age and obesity status. Verbal fluency and attention improved in younger patients aged <60 and non-abdominally obese patients, but deteriorated in older patients aged ≥60 (i.e. verbal fluency and attention) and abdominally obese patients (i.e. verbal fluency). Memory improved in all patients, with a smaller improvement in obese patients compared with normal-weight patients. No significant association was found between PA and post-therapy cognitive change. Due to the novelty of our findings and the limitations of our study, further research, including intervention trials, is warranted to confirm the causal relationship between obesity and cognitive impairments.

Incidence and Mortality Risks of Cancer in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes: A Retrospective Study in Shanghai, China.

BACKGROUND: Evidence from epidemiologic investigation indicates that people with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) are at a significantly higher risk of many types of cancer and mortality. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence and mortality risks of cancer in patients with T2DM compared with the general population in Shanghai, China. METHODS: Based on the Shanghai Diabetes Registry (SDR) database linking to the Shanghai Cancer Registry and Surveillance System (SCRSS), a total of 12,276 T2DM patients without cancer were defined and followed up from 1 December 2001 to 31 July 2011. Standardized incidence ratio (SIR) and standardized mortality ratio (SMR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated using the whole gender and age-matched general population of Shanghai as a reference during the same period. RESULTS: The overall cancer risk was found higher in both males and females T2DM patients, with the SIR of 3.14 (95% CI 2.73-3.56) and 4.29 (95% CI 3.64-4.94), respectively. The overall mortality risk of cancer also significantly increased with the SMR of 2.27 (95% CI 1.86-2.68) and 1.86 (95% CI 1.46-2.26), respectively. Pancreatic cancer was with the highest SIR and SMR in both genders. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with the general population, patients with T2DM were associated with higher incidence and mortality risks of cancer, especially pancreatic cancer.

[Incidence trend of malignant tumors in children in Shanghai].

OBJECTIVE: To understand the incidence trend of malignant tumors in children aged <15 years in Shanghai. METHODS: The <15 years old children diagnosed with cancer in Shanghai between 2009 and 2011 were included in this study. The types of malignant tumors were classified according to International Classification of Childhood Cancer, Version 3 (ICCC-3). The gender and age specific incidences of malignant tumors were analyzed. Software Joinpoint was used to calculate the annual percentage of childhood cancer cases. RESULTS: A total of 460 cases of childhood cancer were diagnosed in Shanghai during 2009-2011, accounting for 0.3% of total cancer cases. The crude incidence was 129.0 per million and the age standardized rate (ASR) was 129.6 per million. The ASR was higher in boys (142.1 per million) than in girls (116.4 per million). The boy to girl ratio was 1.2(95%CI: 1.0-1.5). The incidence was highest in age group <5 years (165.1 per million). The incidences in age groups 5-9 years and 10-14 years were 101.2 per million and 113.9 per million, respectively. Leukemia was the most common cancer in children (n=165, 35.9%, ASR: 47.0 per million), followed by central nervous system tumors (n=91, 19.8%, ASR: 25.6 per million) and lymphomas (n=45, 9.8%, ASR: 12.6 per million). The age and gender specific incidence of malignant tumors and the type specific incidence of malignant tumors in children in Shanghai had no significant changes during the study period. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of malignant tumors was higher in boys than in girls in Shanghai. Leukemia, central nervous system tumors and lymphomas were the three most common cancers in children. The overall incidence of malignant tumors in children in Shanghai had no significant changes during 2002-2011.

Incidence and mortality of gynaecological cancers: Secular trends in urban Shanghai, China over 40 years.

AIM: Appraisal of cancer trends is essential for future cancer control, but relevant studies in China are scarce due to a lack of long-term data. With 40-years of cancer registry data, we sought to evaluate secular time trends in incidence and mortality of gynaecological cancers in an urban Chinese population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data on incidence and mortality of invasive cervical, uterine and ovarian cancer were collected by the Shanghai Cancer Registry. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were calculated for women aged 20-84 in urban Shanghai between 1973 and 2012. Age-period-cohort Poisson regression models were used to evaluate age, period and cohort effects. Overall linear trends, interpreted as the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), were derived from the net drift in age-drift models. RESULTS: Overall, cervical cancer incidence and mortality substantially decreased (EAPC = -4.5% and -5.5%, respectively); however, an upward trend was apparent among younger women (age <60). Uterine cancer incidence increased slightly (EAPC = 1.8%), while mortality decreased over time (EAPC = -2.4%). Ovarian cancer incidence and mortality both increased, although the increase in incidence (EAPC = 1.8%) was larger than mortality (EAPC = 0.6%). While cohort effects were most evident for cervical cancer incidence and mortality, significant age, period, and cohort effects were found for all three gynaecological cancers evaluated. CONCLUSIONS: These secular trends in incidence and mortality of gynaecological cancers in Shanghai likely reflect changing risk factor profiles and improved cancer prognosis over time, and suggest new priorities and call for additional efforts for gynaecological cancer prevention and control for women in China.

[Recent incidences and trends of childhood malignant solid tumors in Shanghai, 2002-2010].

OBJECTIVE: To examine the recent incidences and trends of childhood malignant solid tumors in Shanghai. METHOD: Data from the population-based Shanghai Cancer Registry and related retrospective survey were used to analyze the patterns of incidence and trends of malignant solid tumors diagnosed between 2002 and 2010 in children aged 0-14 years. The distributions of incidences were described according to gender, age and cancer types which were classified according to International Classification of Childhood Cancer (ICCC). Annual age-standardized rates (ASRs) were adjusted by the world standard population. Approximate confidence intervals for standardized rate ratios (SRR) based Poisson distribution test-based methods were used to assess changes in incidence over the period 2002 - 2006 and 2007 - 2010. RESULT: (1)A total of 868 cases of childhood malignant solid tumors were diagnosed in Shanghai during 2002 - 2010, accounting for 65.8% of all childhood cancers. The ASR of 2002 - 2010 was 80.2 per million for all solid tumors. (2) The ASR was higher in boys (86.3 per million) than in girls (73.8 per million) with SRR 1.2 (95%CI 1.0 - 1.3). Incidence rate was the highest in the first five years of life with 93.4 per million. The age-specific incidence rates in 5 - 9 and 10 - 14 age groups were 65.2 and 79.3 per million, respectively. (3) CNS tumors, lymphomas, germ cell tumors, neuroblastoma, and soft tissue sarcomas were the top 5 most common solid tumors in children, with the incidence rate of 23.8, 11.0, 7.8, 7.7 and 6.8 per million, respectively. The patterns of subgroups varied in different age groups. Blastomas, such as neuroblastoma, retinoblastoma, were more common in the children aged 0 - 4 years, whereas epithelial carcinomas and bone tumors developed more frequently in elder children aged 10 - 14 years. (4) Compared with the ASR in 2002 - 2006, the ASR for both genders in 2007 - 2010 had no substantial changes (78.7 per million in 2002 - 2006 and 82.9 per million in 2007 - 2010). However, among boys, the incidence rate in 2007 - 2010 was significantly higher than that in 2002 - 2006 with SRR 1.2 (95%CI: 1.0 - 1.4). For specific subgroups of cancer, there were no substantial changes. Some cautions should be taken when interpreting results involving a small number of cases per year and those with wide 95% confidence intervals. CONCLUSION: The incidence rate of pediatric malignant solid tumors among males was higher than females during 2002 - 2010, and it differed among different age groups with the highest in the first five years of life. CNS tumor was the most common type of solid tumors in children. This was a unique characteristics comparing with adult reflected in disease spectrum and age of onset. The patterns of incidence and its trends for childhood malignant solid tumors in Shanghai could provide a basis for etiologic research and preventive interventions. The findings also suggest an urgent need for longer population-based surveillance to verify the pattern and changing trends.

Cancer incidence and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes treated with human insulin: a cohort study in Shanghai.

AIM: The aim was to investigate the association between human insulin and cancer incidence and mortality in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We recruited 8,774 insulin-naïve diabetes patients from the Shanghai Diabetes Registry (SDR). The follow-up rate was 85.4%. All subjects were divided into the insulin use cohort (n = 3,639) and the non-insulin use cohort (n = 5,135). The primary outcome was the first diagnosis of any cancer. The secondary outcome was all-cause mortality. Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the relative risk (RR) of cancer and mortality. RESULTS: We observed 98 cancer events in the insulin use cohort and 170 in the non-insulin use cohort. Cancer incidence rates were 78.6 and 74.3 per 10,000 patients per year in the insulin users and the non-insulin users, respectively. No significant difference in cancer risk was observed between the two cohorts (adjusted RR = 1.20, 95% CI 0.89-1.62, P = 0.228). Regarding site-specific cancers, only the risk of liver cancer was significantly higher in the insulin users compared to that in the non-insulin users (adjusted RR = 2.84, 95% CI 1.12-7.17, P = 0.028). The risks of overall mortality (adjusted RR = 1.89, 95% CI 1.47-2.43, P<0.0001) and death from cancer (adjusted RR = 2.16, 95% CI 1.39-3.35, P = 0.001) were all significantly higher in the insulin users than in the non-insulin users. CONCLUSION: There was no excess risk of overall cancer in patients with type 2 diabetes who were treated with human insulin. However, a significantly higher risk of liver cancer was found in these patients. Moreover, insulin users showed higher risks of overall and cancer mortality. Considering that individuals treated with insulin were more likely to be advanced diabetic patients, caution should be used in interpreting these results.

[Estimates and prediction on incidence, mortality and prevalence of breast cancer in China, 2008].

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence, mortality and 5-year prevalence of breast cancer in China, in 2008. METHODS: Data from 36 cancer registries and the Third National Death Survey in China (2004 - 2005) were used to estimate the incidence, mortality and 5-year prevalence of breast cancer in China in 2008. Mathematical models were used to predict the breast cancer incidence and mortality in the next 20 years. RESULTS: In 2008, the incidence of breast cancer was 169 452 (14.2%) with the incidence rate of 21.6/100 000, ranking the second among all the cancers. Deaths due to breast cancer was 44 908 (6.1%) with mortality as 5.7/100 000, which ranked the sixth among all the cancers. The 5-year prevalence rate of breast cancer in China was 120.8/100 000, taking up the proportion as 26.1%, ranking the first among all the cancers. Breast cancer was seen more frequently among people aged between 40 to 70. Our data on prediction showed that the incidence and mortality of breast cancer in China would gradually increase in the next 20 years. CONCLUSION: Breast cancer was the second cause of incidence rates among all the cancers in China, with both increasing incidence and mortality. Population at most risk for breast cancer were those aged 40 to 70, who deserved special programs for prevention and control.