Projecting the Potential Clinical and Economic Impact of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Prevention Resource Reallocation in Tennessee.

BACKGROUND: In 2023, Tennessee replaced $6.2 M in US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention funding with state funds to redirect support away from men who have sex with men (MSM), transgender women (TGW), and heterosexual Black women (HSBW) and to prioritize instead first responders (FR), pregnant people (PP), and survivors of sex trafficking (SST). METHODS: We used a simulation model of HIV disease to compare the clinical impact of Current, the present allocation of condoms, preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP), and HIV testing to CDC priority risk groups (MSM/TGW/HSBW); with Reallocation, funding instead increased HIV testing and linkage of Tennessee-determined priority populations (FR/PP/SST). Key model inputs included baseline condom use (45%-49%), PrEP provision (0.1%-8%), HIV testing frequency (every 2.5-4.8 years), and 30-day HIV care linkage (57%-65%). We assumed Reallocation would reduce condom use (-4%), PrEP provision (-26%), and HIV testing (-47%) in MSM/TGW/HSBW, whereas it would increase HIV testing among FR (+47%) and HIV care linkage (to 100%/90%) among PP/SST. RESULTS: Reallocation would lead to 166 additional HIV transmissions, 190 additional deaths, and 843 life-years lost over 10 years. HIV testing reductions were most influential in sensitivity analysis; even a 24% reduction would result in 287 more deaths compared to Current. With pessimistic assumptions, we projected 1359 additional HIV transmissions, 712 additional deaths, and 2778 life-years lost over 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: Redirecting HIV prevention funding in Tennessee would greatly harm CDC priority populations while conferring minimal benefits to new priority populations.

The forecasted prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity in people with HIV in the United States through the year 2030: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the medical complexity of people aging with HIV can inform clinical programs and policy to meet future healthcare needs. The objective of our study was to forecast the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States (US) through 2030. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using the PEARL model-an agent-based simulation of PWH who have initiated ART in the US-the prevalence of anxiety, depression, stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), dyslipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, end-stage liver disease (ESLD), myocardial infarction (MI), and multimorbidity (≥2 mental or physical comorbidities, other than HIV) were forecasted through 2030. Simulations were informed by the US CDC HIV surveillance data of new HIV diagnosis and the longitudinal North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) data on risk of comorbidities from 2009 to 2017. The simulated population represented 15 subgroups of PWH including Hispanic, non-Hispanic White (White), and non-Hispanic Black/African American (Black/AA) men who have sex with men (MSM), men and women with history of injection drug use and heterosexual men and women. Simulations were replicated for 200 runs and forecasted outcomes are presented as median values (95% uncertainty ranges are presented in the Supporting information). In 2020, PEARL forecasted a median population of 670,000 individuals receiving ART in the US, of whom 9% men and 4% women with history of injection drug use, 60% MSM, 8% heterosexual men, and 19% heterosexual women. Additionally, 44% were Black/AA, 32% White, and 23% Hispanic. Along with a gradual rise in population size of PWH receiving ART-reaching 908,000 individuals by 2030-PEARL forecasted a surge in prevalence of most comorbidities to 2030. Depression and/or anxiety was high and increased from 60% in 2020 to 64% in 2030. Hypertension decreased while dyslipidemia, diabetes, CKD, and MI increased. There was little change in prevalence of cancer and ESLD. The forecasted multimorbidity among PWH receiving ART increased from 63% in 2020 to 70% in 2030. There was heterogeneity in trends across subgroups. Among Black women with history of injection drug use in 2030 (oldest demographic subgroup with median age of 66 year), dyslipidemia, CKD, hypertension, diabetes, anxiety, and depression were most prevalent, with 92% experiencing multimorbidity. Among Black MSM in 2030 (youngest demographic subgroup with median age of 42 year), depression and CKD were highly prevalent, with 57% experiencing multimorbidity. These results are limited by the assumption that trends in new HIV diagnoses, mortality, and comorbidity risk observed in 2009 to 2017 will persist through 2030; influences occurring outside this period are not accounted for in the forecasts. CONCLUSIONS: The PEARL forecasts suggest a continued rise in comorbidity and multimorbidity prevalence to 2030, marked by heterogeneities across race/ethnicity, gender, and HIV acquisition risk subgroups. HIV clinicians must stay current on the ever-changing comorbidities-specific guidelines to provide guideline-recommended care. HIV clinical directors should ensure linkages to subspecialty care within the clinic or by referral. HIV policy decision-makers must allocate resources and support extended clinical capacity to meet the healthcare needs of people aging with HIV.

Antiretroviral Therapy Use and Disparities Among Medicare Beneficiaries with HIV.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) is recommended for all people with HIV. Understanding ART use among Medicare beneficiaries with HIV is therefore critically important for improving quality and equity of care among the growing population of older adults with HIV. However, a comprehensive national evaluation of filled ART prescriptions among Medicare beneficiaries is lacking. OBJECTIVE: To examine trends in ART use among Medicare beneficiaries with HIV from 2013 to 2019 and to evaluate whether racial and ethnic disparities in ART use are narrowing over time. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study. SUBJECTS: Traditional Medicare beneficiaries with Part D living with HIV in 2013-2019. MAIN MEASURES: Months of filled ART prescriptions each year. KEY RESULTS: Compared with beneficiaries not on ART, beneficiaries on ART were younger, less likely to be Black (41.6% vs. 47.0%), and more likely to be Hispanic (13.1% vs. 9.7%). While the share of beneficiaries who filled ART prescriptions for 10 + months/year improved (+ 0.48 percentage points/year [p.p.y.], 95% CI 0.34-0.63, p < 0.001), 25.8% of beneficiaries did not fill ART for 10 + months in 2019. Between 2013 and 2019, the proportion of beneficiaries who filled ART for 10 + months improved for Black beneficiaries (65.8 to 70.3%, + 0.66 p.p.y., 95% CI 0.43-0.89, p < 0.001) and White beneficiaries (74.8 to 77.4%, + 0.38 p.p.y.; 95% CI 0.19-0.58, p < 0.001), while remaining stable for Hispanic beneficiaries (74.5 to 75.0%, + 0.12 p.p.y., 95% CI - 0.24-0.49, p = 0.51). Although Black-White disparities in ART use narrowed over time, the share of beneficiaries who filled ART prescriptions for 10 + months/year was significantly lower among Black beneficiaries relative to White beneficiaries each year. CONCLUSIONS: ART use improved from 2013 to 2019 among Medicare beneficiaries with HIV. However, about 25% of beneficiaries did not consistently fill ART prescriptions within a given year. Despite declining differences between Black and White beneficiaries, concerning disparities in ART use persist.

A Growing Number of Men Who Have Sex With Men Aging With HIV (20212031): A Comparison of Two Microsimulation Models.

BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are at risk for multimorbidity as life expectancy increases. Simulation models can project population sizes and age distributions to assist with health policy planning. METHODS: We populated the CEPAC-US model with CDC data to project the HIV epidemic among MSM in the United States. The PEARL model was predominantly informed by NA-ACCORD data (20092017). We compared projected population sizes and age distributions of MSM receiving ART (20212031) and investigated how parameters and assumptions affected results. RESULTS: We projected an aging and increasing population of MSM on ART: CEPAC-US, mean age 48.6 (SD 13.7) years in 2021 versus 53.9 (SD 15.0) years in 2031; PEARL, 46.7 (SD 13.2) years versus 49.2 (SD 14.6) years. We projected 548 800 MSM on ART (147 020 65 years) in 2031 (CEPAC-US) and 599 410 (113 400 65 years) (PEARL). Compared with PEARL, CEPAC-US projected a smaller population of MSM on ART by 2031 and a slower increase in population size, driven by higher estimates of disengagement in care and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from two structurally distinct microsimulation models suggest that the MSM population receiving ART in the United States will increase and age over the next decade. Subgroup-specific data regarding engagement in care and mortality can improve projections and inform health care policy planning.

Distinguishing Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Persistence and Reinfection: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reinfection is poorly understood, partly because few studies have systematically applied genomic analysis to distinguish reinfection from persistent RNA detection related to initial infection. We aimed to evaluate the characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection and persistent RNA detection using independent genomic, clinical, and laboratory assessments. METHODS: All individuals at a large academic medical center who underwent a SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) ≥45 days after an initial positive test, with both tests between 14 March and 30 December 2020, were analyzed for potential reinfection. Inclusion criteria required having ≥2 positive NAATs collected ≥45 days apart with a cycle threshold (Ct) value <35 at repeat testing. For each included subject, likelihood of reinfection was assessed by viral genomic analysis of all available specimens with a Ct value <35, structured Ct trajectory criteria, and case-by-case review by infectious diseases physicians. RESULTS: Among 1569 individuals with repeat SARS-CoV-2 testing ≥45 days after an initial positive NAAT, 65 (4%) met cohort inclusion criteria. Viral genomic analysis characterized mutations present and was successful for 14/65 (22%) subjects. Six subjects had genomically supported reinfection, and 8 subjects had genomically supported persistent RNA detection. Compared to viral genomic analysis, clinical and laboratory assessments correctly distinguished reinfection from persistent RNA detection in 12/14 (86%) subjects but missed 2/6 (33%) genomically supported reinfections. CONCLUSIONS: Despite good overall concordance with viral genomic analysis, clinical and Ct value-based assessments failed to identify 33% of genomically supported reinfections. Scaling-up genomic analysis for clinical use would improve detection of SARS-CoV-2 reinfections.

Diet, physical activity, and obesity among ART-experienced people with HIV in South Africa.

The prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is increasing in South Africa, in part due to poor nutrition, physical inactivity, and obesity. We characterized the habits and understanding of diet, exercise, and obesity among people with HIV (PWH) taking antiretroviral therapy (ART). We conducted a cross-sectional study of ART-experienced PWH attending an HIV community health center near Cape Town, South Africa. We included PWH currently prescribed ART, older than 21y, and not pregnant. We collected demographic and clinical information and interviewed participants regarding their behaviors and knowledge related to diet, physical activity, and obesity. From March 2015 - February 2016, we enrolled 458 participants. Self-reported diets were low in nutritional diversity: 202 reported eating only starch and protein without vegetable/fruit in the prior 24 h. Although most participants (96%) acknowledged that exercise had health benefits, only 215 participants engaged in daily 30-minute walking or exercise. One quarter of participants recognized nocontributors to obesity, and almost 20% identified no health problems associated with obesity. Participants had diets low in nutritional diversity, modest exercise habits, and limited understanding of the impact of obesity on health. Further understanding of barriers to improving diet and exercise and reducing obesity are essential, especially as PWH age.

Cost-Effectiveness of Long-Acting Injectable HIV Preexposure Prophylaxis in the United States : A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 083 trial demonstrated the superiority of long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB-LA) compared with oral emtricitabine-tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (F/TDF) for HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP). OBJECTIVE: To identify the maximum price premium (that is, greatest possible price differential) that society should be willing to accept for the additional benefits of CAB-LA over tenofovir-based PrEP among men who have sex with men and transgender women (MSM/TGW) in the United States. DESIGN: Simulation, cost-effectiveness analysis. DATA SOURCES: Trial and published data, including estimated HIV incidence (5.32, 1.33, and 0.26 per 100 person-years for off PrEP, generic F/TDF and branded emtricitabine-tenofovir alafenamide (F/TAF), and CAB-LA, respectively); 28% 6-year PrEP retention. Annual base-case drug costs: $360 and $16 800 for generic F/TDF and branded F/TAF. Fewer side effects with branded F/TAF versus generic F/TDF were assumed. TARGET POPULATION: 476 700 MSM/TGW at very high risk for HIV (VHR). TIME HORIZON: 10 years. PERSPECTIVE: Health care system. INTERVENTION: CAB-LA versus generic F/TDF or branded F/TAF for HIV PrEP. OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary transmissions, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs (2020 U.S. dollars), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs; U.S. dollars per QALY), maximum price premium for CAB-LA versus tenofovir-based PrEP. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: Compared with generic F/TDF (or branded F/TAF), CAB-LA increased life expectancy by 28 000 QALYs (26 000 QALYs) among those at VHR. Branded F/TAF cost more per QALY gained than generic F/TDF compared with no PrEP. At 10 years, CAB-LA could achieve an ICER of at most $100 000 per QALY compared with generic F/TDF at a maximum price premium of $3700 per year over generic F/TDF (CAB-LA price <$4100 per year). RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: In a PrEP-eligible population at high risk for HIV, rather than at VHR (n = 1 906 800; off PrEP incidence: 1.54 per 100 person-years), CAB-LA could achieve an ICER of at most $100 000 per QALY versus generic F/TDF at a maximum price premium of $1100 per year over generic F/TDF (CAB-LA price <$1500 per year). LIMITATION: Uncertain clinical and economic benefits of averting future transmissions. CONCLUSION: Effective oral PrEP limits the additional price society should be willing to pay for CAB-LA. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: FHI 360; Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; National Institute on Drug Abuse; the Reich HIV Scholar Award; and the Steve and Deborah Gorlin MGH Research Scholars Award.

Need for open data on COVID-19 vaccine uptake among pregnant people in the Caribbean: a call to action.

Pregnant people with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have a higher risk of adverse maternal and fetal outcomes compared with pregnant people without COVID-19. In 2021, large increases in maternal mortality were reported in Jamaica, almost half of which were attributable to COVID-19. COVID-19 vaccination has been shown to reduce these risks, but low- and middle-income countries lack free, publicly available data, known as open data, on COVID-19 vaccine uptake for their pregnant populations. The objectives of this paper were to: review how high-income countries use open data to detect trends in COVID-19 vaccine uptake among pregnant people and develop vaccination distribution strategies; outline barriers to making open data available for maternal COVID-19 vaccination in the Caribbean; and propose a multipronged strategy that would increase the availability of open data on maternal COVID-19 vaccination in the Caribbean. A multipronged strategy to fill the data void would involve: (i) utilizing existing Caribbean maternal immunization data collection entities; (ii) adapting digital software tools to establish maternal electronic immunization registries; and (iii) collaborating with local partners skilled in data analytics. Making open data available for COVID-19 vaccine uptake among pregnant people in the Caribbean could offer substantial benefits, including the development of measurable maternal COVID-19 vaccination goals and the facilitation of vaccine decision-making discussions between providers and pregnant people.

Las embarazadas con la enfermedad por coronavirus del 2019 (COVID-19) tienen un mayor riesgo de resultados maternos y fetales adversos que aquellas libres de la enfermedad. En el 2021, en Jamaica se notificó un gran aumento de la mortalidad materna, del cual casi la mitad fue atribuible a la COVID-19. Se ha demostrado que la vacunación contra la COVID-19 reduce tales riesgos, pero los países de ingresos bajos y medianos carecen de datos gratuitos y de carácter público, conocidos como datos abiertos, sobre la aceptación de la vacuna contra la COVID-19 por parte de las mujeres durante el embarazo. Los objetivos del presente artículo consistieron en examinar cómo los países de ingresos altos utilizan los datos abiertos para detectar las tendencias de aceptación de la vacuna contra la COVID-19 entre las mujeres durante el embarazo y formular estrategias de distribución de las vacunas; señalar los obstáculos que dificultan la disponibilidad de los datos abiertos sobre la vacunación materna contra la COVID-19 en el Caribe; y proponer una estrategia múltiple que permita aumentar la disponibilidad de datos abiertos sobre la vacunación materna contra la COVID-19 en el Caribe. Una estrategia múltiple para llenar este vacío de información implicaría: a) utilizar las entidades de recopilación de datos sobre inmunización materna ya existentes en el Caribe; b) adaptar las herramientas informáticas digitales para crear registros electrónicos de vacunación materna; y c) colaborar con asociados locales especializados en el análisis de datos. Facilitar el acceso a los datos abiertos sobre la aceptación de la vacuna contra la COVID-19 entre las mujeres durante el embarazo en el Caribe podría ofrecer beneficios considerables, tales como el establecimiento de objetivos cuantificables en materia de vacunación materna contra la COVID-19, y propiciar las deliberaciones sobre la toma de decisiones en materia de vacunación entre los prestadores de atención de salud y las embarazadas.

Gestantes com a doença pelo coronavírus 2019 (COVID-19) têm maior risco de desfechos maternos e fetais adversos em comparação com gestantes sem COVID-19. Em 2021, foi registrado um aumento acentuado da mortalidade materna na Jamaica, e quase metade era atribuível à COVID-19. Foi demonstrado que a vacinação contra a COVID-19 reduz esses riscos, mas os países de baixa e média renda não dispõem de dados gratuitos e publicamente disponíveis (os chamados dados abertos) sobre a adesão à vacina contra a COVID-19 entre gestantes. Os objetivos deste estudo foram: analisar como os países de alta renda usam dados abertos para detectar tendências na adesão à vacina contra a COVID-19 entre gestantes e desenvolver estratégias de distribuição da vacina; descrever os obstáculos para disponibilizar dados abertos sobre a vacinação materna contra a COVID-19 no Caribe; e propor uma estratégia multifacetada que aumente a disponibilidade de dados abertos sobre a vacinação materna contra a COVID-19 no Caribe. Uma estratégia multifacetada para obter dados a fim de preencher essa lacuna envolveria: (i) utilização das entidades existentes que coletam dados de imunização materna no Caribe; (ii) adaptação de ferramentas de software para estabelecer registros eletrônicos de imunização materna; e (iii) colaboração com parceiros locais especializados em análise de dados. A disponibilização de dados abertos sobre a adesão de gestantes à vacinação contra a COVID-19 no Caribe poderia oferecer benefícios substanciais, incluindo o desenvolvimento de metas mensuráveis de vacinação materna contra a COVID-19, e facilitar discussões entre profissionais de saúde e gestantes para a tomada de decisões sobre vacinas.

Clearance of Hepatitis B e Antigen in Untreated Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: In people with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, persistence of hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) is associated with clinical progression and need for treatment. HBeAg loss represents partial immune control and is a critical event in the natural history of chronic HBV. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies that report HBeAg loss among people with untreated chronic HBV. We evaluated HBeAg loss using a random-effects model and conducted subanalysis on region. RESULTS: We screened 10 560 publications, performed 196 full-text analyses, and included 26 studies for meta-analysis. The pooled rate of HBeAg loss was 6.46/100 person-years (PYs) (95% confidence interval, 5.17-8.08). Meta-regression showed that older age of participants and studies in Europe were associated with higher rate of HBeAg loss. Rates per 100 PYs were 7.43 (95% confidence interval, 6.30-8.75; 1 study) in Africa, 3.24 (2.61--4.02; 1 study) in the Eastern Mediterranean, 13.67 (11.21-16.66; 4 studies) in Europe, 7.34 (4.61--11.70; 5 studies) in North America, and 5.53 (4.05--7.55; 15 studies) in the Western Pacific. CONCLUSIONS: Spontaneous HBeAg loss occurs at a rate of 6.46/100 PYs. Variations by region and age group may reflect epidemiological, immunological, or HBV genotype-related differences.

College Campuses and COVID-19 Mitigation: Clinical and Economic Value.

BACKGROUND: Colleges in the United States are determining how to operate safely amid the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. OBJECTIVE: To examine the clinical outcomes, cost, and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 mitigation strategies on college campuses. DESIGN: The Clinical and Economic Analysis of COVID-19 interventions (CEACOV) model, a dynamic microsimulation model, was used to examine alternative mitigation strategies. The CEACOV model tracks infections accrued by students and faculty, accounting for community transmissions. DATA SOURCES: Data from published literature were used to obtain parameters related to COVID-19 and contact-hours. TARGET POPULATION: Undergraduate students and faculty at U.S. colleges. TIME HORIZON: One semester (105 days). PERSPECTIVE: Modified societal. INTERVENTION: COVID-19 mitigation strategies, including social distancing, masks, and routine laboratory screening. OUTCOME MEASURES: Infections among students and faculty per 5000 students and per 1000 faculty, isolation days, tests, costs, cost per infection prevented, and cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: Among students, mitigation strategies reduced COVID-19 cases from 3746 with no mitigation to 493 with extensive social distancing and masks, and further to 151 when laboratory testing was added among asymptomatic persons every 3 days. Among faculty, these values were 164, 28, and 25 cases, respectively. Costs ranged from about $0.4 million for minimal social distancing to about $0.9 million to $2.1 million for strategies involving laboratory testing ($10 per test), depending on testing frequency. Extensive social distancing with masks cost $170 per infection prevented ($49 200 per QALY) compared with masks alone. Adding routine laboratory testing increased cost per infection prevented to between $2010 and $17 210 (cost per QALY gained, $811 400 to $2 804 600). RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Results were most sensitive to test costs. LIMITATION: Data are from multiple sources. CONCLUSION: Extensive social distancing with a mandatory mask-wearing policy can prevent most COVID-19 cases on college campuses and is very cost-effective. Routine laboratory testing would prevent 96% of infections and require low-cost tests to be economically attractive. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health.

Clinical Impact, Costs, and Cost-effectiveness of Expanded Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Testing in Massachusetts.

BACKGROUND: We projected the clinical and economic impact of alternative testing strategies on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence and mortality in Massachusetts using a microsimulation model. METHODS: We compared 4 testing strategies: (1) hospitalized: polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing only for patients with severe/critical symptoms warranting hospitalization; (2) symptomatic: PCR for any COVID-19-consistent symptoms, with self-isolation if positive; (3) symptomatic + asymptomatic once: symptomatic and 1-time PCR for the entire population; and (4) symptomatic + asymptomatic monthly: symptomatic with monthly retesting for the entire population. We examined effective reproduction numbers (Re = 0.9-2.0) at which policy conclusions would change. We assumed homogeneous mixing among the Massachusetts population (excluding those residing in long-term care facilities). We used published data on disease progression and mortality, transmission, PCR sensitivity/specificity (70%/100%), and costs. Model-projected outcomes included infections, deaths, tests performed, hospital-days, and costs over 180 days, as well as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs, $/quality-adjusted life-year [QALY]). RESULTS: At Re = 0.9, symptomatic + asymptomatic monthly vs hospitalized resulted in a 64% reduction in infections and a 46% reduction in deaths, but required >66-fold more tests/day with 5-fold higher costs. Symptomatic + asymptomatic monthly had an ICER <$100 000/QALY only when Re ≥1.6; when test cost was ≤$3, every 14-day testing was cost-effective at all Re examined. CONCLUSIONS: Testing people with any COVID-19-consistent symptoms would be cost-saving compared to testing only those whose symptoms warrant hospital care. Expanding PCR testing to asymptomatic people would decrease infections, deaths, and hospitalizations. Despite modest sensitivity, low-cost, repeat screening of the entire population could be cost-effective in all epidemic settings.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Diagnostic Clinical Decision Support: A Pre-Post Implementation Study of CORAL (COvid Risk cALculator).

BACKGROUND: Isolation of hospitalized persons under investigation (PUIs) for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) reduces nosocomial transmission risk. Efficient evaluation of PUIs is needed to preserve scarce healthcare resources. We describe the development, implementation, and outcomes of an inpatient diagnostic algorithm and clinical decision support system (CDSS) to evaluate PUIs. METHODS: We conducted a pre-post study of CORAL (COvid Risk cALculator), a CDSS that guides frontline clinicians through a risk-stratified COVID-19 diagnostic workup, removes transmission-based precautions when workup is complete and negative, and triages complex cases to infectious diseases (ID) physician review. Before CORAL, ID physicians reviewed all PUI records to guide workup and precautions. After CORAL, frontline clinicians evaluated PUIs directly using CORAL. We compared pre- and post-CORAL frequency of repeated severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs), time from NAAT result to PUI status discontinuation, total duration of PUI status, and ID physician work hours, using linear and logistic regression, adjusted for COVID-19 incidence. RESULTS: Fewer PUIs underwent repeated testing after an initial negative NAAT after CORAL than before CORAL (54% vs 67%, respectively; adjusted odd ratio, 0.53 [95% confidence interval, .44-.63]; P < .01). CORAL significantly reduced average time to PUI status discontinuation (adjusted difference [standard error], -7.4 [0.8] hours per patient), total duration of PUI status (-19.5 [1.9] hours per patient), and average ID physician work-hours (-57.4 [2.0] hours per day) (all P < .01). No patients had a positive NAAT result within 7 days after discontinuation of precautions via CORAL. CONCLUSIONS: CORAL is an efficient and effective CDSS to guide frontline clinicians through the diagnostic evaluation of PUIs and safe discontinuation of precautions.

Mortality in relation to hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection status among HIV-HBV co-infected patients in sub-Saharan Africa after immediate initiation of antiretroviral therapy.

It is unknown how past and active hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection affect immunorecovery and mortality in people with HIV who initiate tenofovir-based antiretroviral therapy (ART). Using data collected between 2008 and 2015, we studied people with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa initiating immediate ART in the Temprano randomized control trial. We classified participants into HBV groups at ART initiation: hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-positive with HBV DNA ≥ 2,000 IU/ml; HBsAg-positive with HBV DNA < 2,000 IU/ml; isolated HBcAb-positive; resolved infection (HBsAb-positive/HBcAb-positive); and HBV non-immune/vaccinated (HBcAb-negative). We compared square-root CD4-cell count increases using mixed-effect, non-linear regression adjusted for age, sex, baseline CD4 cell count, and HIV RNA. We compared all-cause mortality using Bayesian parametric survival regression. Among 879 participants, 24 (2.7%) had HBsAg with high HBV DNA, 76 (8.6%) HBsAg with low HBV DNA, 325 (37.0%) isolated anti-HBcAb, 226 (25.7%) resolved HBV infection and 228 (25.9%) HBV non-immune/vaccinated. We found no significant difference in CD4 cell increases between HBV-infection groups after adjustment (p = 0.16). Participants with HBsAg and high HBV DNA had the highest incidence of all-cause mortality (1.9/100 person-years, 95% Credibile Interval [CrI] = 1.0-3.4). By comparison, incidence rates of mortality were reduced by 57% (95%CrI = -79%, -13%), 60% (95%CrI = -82%, -12%) and 66% (95%CrI = -84%, -23%) in those who had isolated anti-HBcAb-positive, resolved HBV infection and HBV non-immune/vaccinated, respectively. In conclusion, individuals with HIV and past HBV infection or isolated anti-HBcAb-positive serology, much like HBV non-immune/vaccinated, experience lower mortality than those with HBsAg and high HBV DNA. Additional HBV-related management would not be necessary for these individuals.

Modeling Adherence Interventions Among Youth with HIV in the United States: Clinical and Economic Projections.

The Adolescent Medicine Trials Network for HIV/AIDS Interventions is evaluating treatment adherence interventions (AI) to improve virologic suppression (VS) among youth with HIV (YWH). Using a microsimulation model, we compared two strategies: standard-of-care (SOC) and a hypothetical 12-month AI that increased cohort-level VS in YWH in care by an absolute ten percentage points and cost $100/month/person. Projected outcomes included primary HIV transmissions, deaths and life-expectancy, lifetime HIV-related costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs, $/quality-adjusted life-year [QALY]). Compared to SOC, AI would reduce HIV transmissions by 15% and deaths by 12% at 12 months. AI would improve discounted life expectancy/person by 8 months at an added lifetime cost/person of $5,300, resulting in an ICER of $7,900/QALY. AI would be cost-effective at $2,000/month/person or with efficacies as low as a 1 percentage point increase in VS. YWH-targeted adherence interventions with even modest efficacy could improve life expectancy, prevent onward HIV transmissions, and be cost-effective.

RESUMEN: La Red de Ensayos Médicos sobre Adolescentes para Realizar Intervenciones sobre el VIH/SIDA está evaluando intervenciones de adherencia (IAs) al tratamiento para mejorar la supresión virológica (SV) entre los jóvenes con VIH (JCV). Usando un modelo de microsimulación, comparamos dos estrategias: cuidado convencional (CC) y una intervención de adherencia hipotética durando 12 meses que aumentaría la SV a nivel de cohorte entre JCV en tratamiento por 10 puntos de porcentuales y que costaría US$ 100/mes/persona. Resultados proyectados incluyeron transmisiones de VIH primarias, muertes y esperanza de vida, costos de por vida asociados con el VIH, y razones incrementales de costo-efectividad (RICEs, $/año de vida ajustado por la calidad [AVAC]). Comparado al CC, la IA reduciría transmisiones de VIH por 15% y muertes por 12% a los 12 meses. La IA mejoraría esperanza de vida descontada/persona por 8 meses a un costo de por vida adicional/persona de US$ 5.300, resultando en una RICE de US$ 7.900/AVAC. La IA sería costo-efectiva a un costo de US$ 2.000/mes/persona o si mejorara SV por al menos un punto porcentual. Intervenciones de adherencia dirigidas a jóvenes con una eficacia incluso modesta podrían mejorar esperanza de vida, prevenir transmisiones de VIH, y ser costo-efectivas.

Vaccine completion and infectious diseases screening in a cohort of adult refugees following resettlement in the U.S.: 2013-2015.

BACKGROUND: Refugees are frequently not immune to vaccine-preventable infections. Adherence to consensus guidelines on vaccination and infectious diseases screening among refugees resettling in the U.S. is unknown. We sought to determine rates of vaccine completion and infectious diseases screening in refugees following resettlement. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of refugees resettling in a region in the U.S. using medical data from June 2013-April 2015. We determined the proportion of vaccine-eligible refugees vaccinated with measles-mumps-rubella (MMR), hepatitis A/B, tetanus, diphtheria, and acellular pertussis (Tdap), and human papillomavirus (HPV) following resettlement. We also determined the proportion of refugees who completed HIV and hepatitis C (HCV) screening. RESULTS: One hundred and eleven subjects were included, primarily from Iraq (53%), Afghanistan (19%), and Eritrea (11%). Of the 84 subjects who were vaccine-eligible, 78 (93%) initiated and 42 (50%) completed vaccinations within one year of resettlement. Odds of completing vaccination were higher for men (OR: 2.38; 95%CI:1.02-5.71) and for subjects with English proficiency (OR: 3.70; 95%CI:1.04-17.49). Of the 78 subjects (70%) completing HIV screening, two (3%) were diagnosed with HIV. Nearly all subjects completed screening for HCV, and one had active infection. CONCLUSION: While most refugees initiate vaccinations, only 50% completed vaccinations and 70% completed HIV screening within 1 year of resettlement. There is a need to emphasize vaccine completion and HIV screening in refugee patients following resettlement.

Clinical Impact and Cost-effectiveness of Genotype Testing at Human Immunodeficiency Virus Diagnosis in the United States.

BACKGROUND: US guidelines recommend genotype testing at human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnosis ("baseline genotype") to detect transmitted drug resistance (TDR) to nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), and protease inhibitors. With integrase strand inhibitor (INSTI)-based regimens now recommended as first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART), the of baseline genotypes is uncertain. METHODS: We used the Cost-effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications model to examine the clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of baseline genotype compared to no baseline genotype for people starting ART with dolutegravir (DTG) and an NRTI pair. For people with no TDR (83.8%), baseline genotype does not alter regimen selection. Among people with transmitted NRTI resistance (5.8%), baseline genotype guides NRTI selection and informs subsequent ART after adverse events (DTG AEs, 14%). Among people with transmitted NNRTI resistance (7.2%), baseline genotype influences care only for people with DTG AEs switching to NNRTI-based regimens. The 48-week virologic suppression varied (40%-92%) depending on TDR. Costs included $320/genotype and $2500-$3000/month for ART. RESULTS: Compared to no baseline genotype, baseline genotype resulted in <1 additional undiscounted quality-adjusted life-day (QALD), cost an additional $500/person, and was not cost-effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio: $420 000/quality-adjusted life-year). In univariate sensitivity analysis, clinical benefits of baseline genotype never exceeded 5 QALDs for all newly diagnosed people with HIV. Baseline genotype was cost-effective at current TDR prevalence only under unlikely conditions, eg, DTG-based regimens achieving ≤50% suppression of transmitted NRTI resistance. CONCLUSIONS: With INSTI-based first-line regimens in the United States, baseline genotype offers minimal clinical benefit and is not cost-effective.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Disease Severity on Admission Chest Radiographs among Patients Admitted with Confirmed Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Background Disease severity on chest radiographs has been associated with higher risk of disease progression and adverse outcomes from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Few studies have evaluated COVID-19-related racial and/or ethnic disparities in radiology. Purpose To evaluate whether non-White minority patients hospitalized with confirmed COVID-19 infection presented with increased severity on admission chest radiographs compared with White or non-Hispanic patients. Materials and Methods This single-institution retrospective cohort study was approved by the institutional review board. Patients hospitalized with confirmed COVID-19 infection between March 17, 2020, and April 10, 2020, were identified by using the electronic medical record (n = 326; mean age, 59 years ±17 [standard deviation]; male-to-female ratio: 188:138). The primary outcome was the severity of lung disease on admission chest radiographs, measured by using the modified Radiographic Assessment of Lung Edema (mRALE) score. The secondary outcome was a composite adverse clinical outcome of intubation, intensive care unit admission, or death. The primary exposure was the racial and/or ethnic category: White or non-Hispanic versus non-White (ie, Hispanic, Black, Asian, or other). Multivariable linear regression analyses were performed to evaluate the association between mRALE scores and race and/or ethnicity. Results Non-White patients had significantly higher mRALE scores (median score, 6.1; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.4, 6.7) compared with White or non-Hispanic patients (median score, 4.2; 95% CI: 3.6, 4.9) (unadjusted average difference, 1.8; 95% CI: 0.9, 2.8; P < .01). For both White (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.3; 95% CI: 1.2, 1.4; P < .001) and non-White (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.2; 95% CI: 1.1, 1.3; P < .001) patients, increasing mRALE scores were associated with a higher likelihood of experiencing composite adverse outcome with no evidence of interaction (P = .16). Multivariable linear regression analyses demonstrated that non-White patients presented with higher mRALE scores at admission chest radiography compared with White or non-Hispanic patients (adjusted average difference, 1.6; 95% CI: 0.5, 2.7; P < .01). Adjustment for hypothesized mediators revealed that the association between race and/or ethnicity and mRALE scores was mediated by limited English proficiency (P < .01). Conclusion Non-White patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 infection were more likely to have a higher severity of disease on admission chest radiographs than White or non-Hispanic patients, and increased severity was associated with worse outcomes for all patients. © RSNA, 2020 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

The Clinical Impact and Cost-effectiveness of Measles-Mumps-Rubella Vaccination to Prevent Measles Importations Among International Travelers From the United States.

BACKGROUND: Measles importations and the subsequent spread from US travelers returning from abroad are responsible for most measles cases in the United States. Increasing measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination among departing US travelers could reduce the clinical impact and costs of measles in the United States. METHODS: We designed a decision tree to evaluate MMR vaccination at a pretravel health encounter (PHE), compared with no encounter. We derived input parameters from Global TravEpiNet data and literature. We quantified Riskexposure to measles while traveling and the average number of US-acquired cases and contacts due to a measles importation. In sensitivity analyses, we examined the impact of destination-specific Riskexposure, including hot spots with active measles outbreaks; the percentage of previously-unvaccinated travelers; and the percentage of travelers returning to US communities with heterogeneous MMR coverage. RESULTS: The no-encounter strategy projected 22 imported and 66 US-acquired measles cases, costing $14.8M per 10M travelers. The PHE strategy projected 15 imported and 35 US-acquired cases at $190.3M per 10M travelers. PHE was not cost effective for all international travelers (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] $4.6M/measles case averted), but offered better value (ICER <$100 000/measles case averted) or was even cost saving for travelers to hot spots, especially if travelers were previously unvaccinated or returning to US communities with heterogeneous MMR coverage. CONCLUSIONS: PHEs that improve MMR vaccination among US international travelers could reduce measles cases, but are costly. The best value is for travelers with a high likelihood of measles exposure, especially if the travelers are previously unvaccinated or will return to US communities with heterogeneous MMR coverage.

Rapid Detection of Powassan Virus in a Patient With Encephalitis by Metagenomic Sequencing.

We describe a patient with severe and progressive encephalitis of unknown etiology. We performed rapid metagenomic sequencing from cerebrospinal fluid and identified Powassan virus, an emerging tick-borne flavivirus that has been increasingly detected in the United States.