Geographical disparities in access to surgical treatment and mortality rates from abdominal aortic aneurysms in Brazil: A retrospective longitudinal study.

INTRODUCTION: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a growing public health problem, and not all patients have access to surgery when needed. This study aimed to analyze spatiotemporal variations in AAA mortality and surgical procedures in Brazilian intermediate geographic regions and explore the impact of different surgical techniques on operative mortality. METHODS: A retrospective longitudinal study was conducted to evaluate AAA mortality from 2008 to 2020 using space-time cube (STC) analysis and the emerging hot spot analysis tool through the Getis-Ord Gi* method. RESULTS: There were 34,255 deaths due to AAA, 13,075 surgeries to repair AAA, and a surgical mortality of 14.92%. STC analysis revealed an increase in AAA mortality rates (trend statistic = +1.7693, p = 0.0769) and a significant reduction in AAA surgery rates (trend statistic = -3.8436, p = 0.0001). Analysis of emerging hotspots revealed high AAA mortality rates in the South, Southeast, and Central-West, with a reduction in procedures in São Paulo and Minas Gerais States (Southeast). In the Northeast, there were extensive areas of increasing mortality rates and decreasing procedure rates (cold spots). CONCLUSION: AAA mortality increased in several regions of the country while surgery rates decreased, demonstrating the need for implementing public health policies to increase the availability of surgical procedures, particularly in less developed regions with limited access to services.

Open or closed abdomen post laparotomy to control severe abdominal sepsis: a survival analysis.

INTRODUCTION: severe abdominal sepsis, accompained by diffuse peritonitis, poses a significant challenge for most surgeons. It often requires repetitive surgical interventions, leading to complications and resulting in high morbidity and mortality rates. The open abdomen technique, facilitated by applying a negative-pressure wound therapy (NPWT), reduces the duration of the initial surgical procedure, minimizes the accumulation of secretions and inflammatory mediators in the abdominal cavity and lowers the risk of abdominal compartment syndrome and its associated complications. Another approach is primary closure of the abdominal aponeurosis, which involves suturing the layers of the abdominal wall. METHODS: the objective of this study is to conduct a survival analysis comparing the treatment of severe abdominal sepsis using open abdomen technique versus primary closure after laparotomy in a public hospital in the South of Brazil. We utilized data extracted from electronic medical records to perform both descriptive and survival analysis, employing the Kaplan-Meier curve and a log-rank test. RESULTS: the study sample encompassed 75 laparotomies conducted over a span of 5 years, with 40 cases employing NPWT and 35 cases utilizing primary closure. The overall mortality rate observed was 55%. Notably, survival rates did not exhibit statistical significance when comparing the two methods, even after stratifying the data into separate analysis groups for each technique. CONCLUSION: recent publications on this subject have reported some favorable outcomes associated with the open abdomen technique underscoring the pressing need for a standardized approach to managing patients with severe, complicated abdominal sepsis.

Applicability of machine learning algorithm to predict the therapeutic intervention success in Brazilian smokers.

Smoking cessation is an important public health policy worldwide. However, as far as we know, there is a lack of screening of variables related to the success of therapeutic intervention (STI) in Brazilian smokers by machine learning (ML) algorithms. To address this gap in the literature, we evaluated the ability of eight ML algorithms to correctly predict the STI in Brazilian smokers who were treated at a smoking cessation program in Brazil between 2006 and 2017. The dataset was composed of 12 variables and the efficacies of the algorithms were measured by accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. We plotted a decision tree flowchart and also measured the odds ratio (OR) between each independent variable and the outcome, and the importance of the variable for the best model based on PPV. The mean global values for the metrics described above were, respectively, 0.675±0.028, 0.803±0.078, 0.485±0.146, 0.705±0.035 and 0.680±0.033. Supporting vector machines performed the best algorithm with a PPV of 0.726±0.031. Smoking cessation drug use was the roof of decision tree with OR of 4.42 and importance of variable of 100.00. Increase in the number of relapses also promoted a positive outcome, while higher consumption of cigarettes resulted in the opposite. In summary, the best model predicted 72.6% of positive outcomes correctly. Smoking cessation drug use and higher number of relapses contributed to quit smoking, while higher consumption of cigarettes showed the opposite effect. There are important strategies to reduce the number of smokers and increase STI by increasing services and drug treatment for smokers.

Confronting mobile phone signal coverage and helicopter emergency medical service travel time: A geospatial analysis in the northwest macro-region of Paraná State, Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to conduct a detailed geospatial analysis of mobile phone signal coverage in the northwest macro-region of Paraná State, Brazil, seeking to identify areas where limitations in coverage may be related to lengthy travel times of the helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS) for the assistance of victims of road traffic injuries (RTIs). METHODS: An observational study was conducted to examine mobile phone signal coverage and HEMS travel times from 2017 to 2021. HEMS travel times were categorized into four groups: T1 (0-15 min), T2 (16-30 min), T3 (31-45 min), and T4 (over 45 min). Empirical Bayesian Kriging was used to map areas with low mobile signal coverage. The Kruskal-Wallis test and Dwass-Steel-Critchlow-Fligner comparative analyses were performed to explore how mobile signal coverage relates to HEMS travel times to RTI locations. RESULTS: There were 470 occurrences of RTIs attended by HEMS, of which 108 (23%) resulted in on-site fatalities. Among these deaths, 47 (26.85%) occurred in areas with low mobile phone signal coverage ("shadow areas"). Low mobile phone signal coverage identified at 175 (37.24%) RTIs locations, was unevenly distributed across the macro-region. The lowest medians of mobile signal quality were predominantly found in areas with HEMS travel times exceeding 30 min, corresponding to signal strength values of -98.44 (T3) and -100.75 (T4) dBm. This scenario represents a challenge for effective communication to activate HEMS. In the multiple comparison analysis among travel time groups, significant differences were observed between T1 and T2 (p < 0.001), T1 and T3 (p < 0.001), T1 and T4 (p < 0.001), and T2 and T3 (p < 0.001), indicating a potential association between lower mobile phone signal coverage and longer HEMS travel times. CONCLUSION: It can be concluded that poor mobile phone signals in remote areas can hinder HEMS activation, potentially delaying the start of treatment for RTIs. Identification of the shadow areas can help communication and health managers in designing and implementing the necessary changes to improve mobile phone signal coverage and consequently reduce delays in the initial response to RTIs.

Applicability of machine learning technique in the screening of patients with mild traumatic brain injury.

Even though the demand of head computed tomography (CT) in patients with mild traumatic brain injury (TBI) has progressively increased worldwide, only a small number of individuals have intracranial lesions that require neurosurgical intervention. As such, this study aims to evaluate the applicability of a machine learning (ML) technique in the screening of patients with mild TBI in the Regional University Hospital of Maringá, Paraná state, Brazil. This is an observational, descriptive, cross-sectional, and retrospective study using ML technique to develop a protocol that predicts which patients with an initial diagnosis of mild TBI should be recommended for a head CT. Among the tested models, he linear extreme gradient boosting was the best algorithm, with the highest sensitivity (0.70 ± 0.06). Our predictive model can assist in the screening of mild TBI patients, assisting health professionals to manage the resource utilization, and improve the quality and safety of patient care.

Correction: Applicability of machine learning technique in the screening of patients with mild traumatic brain injury.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0290721.].

Built environment influence on the incidence of elderly pedestrian collisions in a medium-large city in southern Brazil: a spatial analysis.

Trauma disproportionately affects vulnerable road users, especially the elderly. We analyzed the spatial distribution of elderly pedestrians struck by vehicles in the urban area of Maringa city, from 2014 to 2018. Hotspots were obtained by kernel density estimation and wavelet analysis. The relationship between spatial relative risks (RR) of elderly run-overs and the built environment was assessed through Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA). Incidents were more frequent in the central and southeast regions of the city, where the RR was up to 2.58 times higher. The QCA test found a significant association between elderly pedestrian victims and the presence of traffic lights, medical centers/hospitals, roundabouts and schools. There is an association between higher risk of elderly pedestrians collisions and specific elements of built environments in Maringa, providing fundamental data to help guide public policies to improve urban mobility aimed at protecting vulnerable road users and planning an age-friendly city.

Emergency Care Gap in Brazil: Geographical Accessibility as a Proxy of Response Capacity to Tackle COVID-19.

Background: The new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has claimed thousands of lives worldwide and disrupted the health system in many countries. As the national emergency care capacity is a crucial part of the COVID-19 response, we evaluated the Brazilian Health Care System response preparedness against the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: A retrospective and ecological study was performed with data retrieved from the Brazilian Information Technology Department of the Public Health Care System. The numbers of intensive care (ICU) and hospital beds, general or intensivist physicians, nurses, nursing technicians, physiotherapists, and ventilators from each health region were extracted. Beds per health professionals and ventilators per population rates were assessed. A health service accessibility index was created using a two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA). A spatial analysis using Getis-Ord Gi* was performed to identify areas lacking access to high-complexity centers (HCC). Results: As of February 2020, Brazil had 35,682 ICU beds, 426,388 hospital beds, and 65,411 ventilators. In addition, 17,240 new ICU beds were created in June 2020. The South and Southeast regions have the highest rates of professionals and infrastructure to attend patients with COVID-19 compared with the northern region. The north region has the lowest accessibility to ICUs. Conclusions: The Brazilian Health Care System is unevenly distributed across the country. The inequitable distribution of health facilities, equipment, and human resources led to inadequate preparedness to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, the ineffectiveness of public measures of the municipal and federal administrations aggravated the pandemic in Brazil.

Emergency Care Sensitive Conditions in Brazil: A Geographic Information System Approach to Timely Hospital Access.

Background: The benefits of treatment for many conditions are time dependent. The burden of these emergency care sensitive conditions (ECSCs) is especially high in low- and middle-income countries. Our objective was to analyze geospatial trends in ECSCs and characterize regional disparities in access to emergency care in Brazil. Methods: From publicly available datasets, we extracted data on patients assigned an ECSC-related ICD-10 code and on the country's emergency facilities from 2015-2019. Using ArcGIS, OpenStreetMap, and WorldPop, we created catchment areas corresponding to 180 minutes of driving distance from each hospital. We then used ArcGIS to characterize space-time trends in ECSC admissions and to complete an Origin-Destination analysis to determine the path from household to closest hospital. Findings: There were 1362 municipalities flagged as "hot spots," areas with a high volume of ECSCs. Of those, 69.7% were more than 180 minutes (171 km) from the closest emergency facility. These municipalities were primarily located in the states of Minas Gerais, Bahia, Espiríto Santo, Tocantins, and Amapá. In the North region, only 69.1% of the population resided within 180 minutes of an emergency hospital. Interpretations: Significant geographical barriers to accessing emergency care exist in certain areas of Brazil, especially in peri-urban areas and the North region. One limitation of this approach is that geolocation was not possible in some areas and thus we are likely underestimating the burden of inadequate access. Subsequent work should evaluate ECSC mortality data. Funding: This study was funded by the Duke Global Health Institute Artificial Intelligence Pilot Project.

The Impact of Socioeconomic Factors, Coverage and Access to Health on Heart Ischemic Disease Mortality in a Brazilian Southern State: A Geospatial Analysis.

Background: No other disease has killed more than ischemic heart disease (IHD) for the past few years globally. Despite the advances in cardiology, the response time for starting treatment still leads patients to death because of the lack of healthcare coverage and access to referral centers. Objectives: To analyze the spatial disparities related to IHD mortality in the Parana state, Brazil. Methods: An ecological study using secondary data from Brazilian Health Informatics Department between 2013-2017 was performed to verify the IHD mortality. An spatial analysis was performed using the Global Moran and Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) to verify the spatial dependency of IHD mortality. Lastly, multivariate spatial regression models were also developed using Ordinary Least Squares and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to identify socioeconomic indicators (aging, income, and illiteracy rates), exam coverage (catheterization, angioplasty, and revascularization rates), and access to health (access index to cardiologists and chemical reperfusion centers) significantly correlated with IHD mortality. The chosen model was based on p < 0.05, highest adjusted R2 and lowest Akaike Information Criterion. Results: A total of 22,920 individuals died from IHD between 2013-2017. The spatial analysis confirmed a positive spatial autocorrelation global between IDH mortality rates (Moran's I: 0.633, p < 0.01). The LISA analysis identified six high-high pattern clusters composed by 66 municipalities (16.5%). GWR presented the best model (Adjusted R2: 0.72) showing that accessibility to cardiologists and chemical reperfusion centers, and revascularization and angioplasty rates differentially affect the IHD mortality rates geographically. Aging and illiteracy rate presented positive correlation with IHD mortality rate, while income ratio presented negative correlation (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Regions of vulnerability were unveiled by the spatial analysis where sociodemographic, exam coverage and accessibility to health variables impacted differently the IHD mortality rates in Paraná state, Brazil. Highlights: The increase in ischemic heart disease mortality rates is related to geographical disparities.The IHD mortality is differentially associated to socioeconomic factors, exam coverage, and access to health.Higher accessibility to chemical reperfusion centers did not necessarily improve patient outcomes in some regions of the state.Clusters of high mortality rate are placed in regions with low amount of cardiologists, income and schooling.

Spatial inequalities of major lower limb amputation rates in Paraná state, Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this observational cross-sectional study was to analyse the spatial distribution of major lower limb amputation (MLLA) rates and associate them to socioeconomic, demographic and public healthcare access-related variables in the State of Paraná, Brazil, from 2012 to 2017. METHOD: Data on MLLA, revascularisation surgeries, diagnostic exams and healthcare coverage were obtained from the Brazilian Public Hospital Information System. Socioeconomic data were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Spatial autocorrelation of the MLLA rates was tested using Moran's I method. Multivariate spatial regression models using ordinary least squares regression (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) were used to identify the variables significantly correlated with MLLA. RESULTS: A total of 5270 MLLA were included in the analysis. Mean MLLA rates were 24.32 (±18.22)/100 000 inhabitants, showing a positive global spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I=0.66; p<0.001). Queen contiguity matrix demonstrates that MLLA rates ranged from 7.6 to 46.6/100 000 with five large clusters of high MLLA rates. OLS showed that four of the nine studied variables presented significant spatial correlation with MLLA rates. Colour Doppler ultrasound showed a negative association (p<0.001), while revascularisation surgeries and illiteracy showed a positive correlation (p<0.01). GWR presented the best model (adjusted R2=0.77) showing that the predictors differentially affect the MLLA rates geographically. CONCLUSION: The high MLLA rates in some regions of the state are influenced by the high rate of illiteracy and low utilisation rate of colour Doppler, indicating a social problem and difficulty in accessing health. On the other hand, the high rates of revascularisation surgeries are related to higher MLLA rates, possibly due to delayed access to specialised hospitals. This indicates that attention must be given to population access to public healthcare in the State of Paraná in order to ensure proper and timely medical attention.

Mapping risk of ischemic heart disease using machine learning in a Brazilian state.

Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of deaths globally. Machine learning studies predicting mortality rates for ischemic heart disease (IHD) at the municipal level are very limited. The goal of this paper was to create and validate a Heart Health Care Index (HHCI) to predict risk of IHD based on location and risk factors. Secondary data, geographical information system (GIS) and machine learning were used to validate the HHCI and stratify the IHD municipality risk in the state of Paraná. A positive spatial autocorrelation was found (Moran's I = 0.6472, p-value = 0.001), showing clusters of high IHD mortality. The Support Vector Machine, which had an RMSE of 0.789 and error proportion close to one (0.867), was the best for prediction among eight machine learning algorithms after validation. In the north and northwest regions of the state, HHCI was low and mortality clusters patterns were high. By creating an HHCI through ML, we can predict IHD mortality rate at municipal level, identifying predictive characteristics that impact health conditions of these localities' guided health management decisions for improvements for IHD within the emergency care network in the state of Paraná.

Open or closed abdomen post laparotomy to control severe abdominal sepsis: a survival analysis / Abdome aberto ou fechado pós-laparotomia para controle de sepse de foco intra-abdominal severa: uma análise de sobrevivência

ABSTRACT Introduction: severe abdominal sepsis, accompained by diffuse peritonitis, poses a significant challenge for most surgeons. It often requires repetitive surgical interventions, leading to complications and resulting in high morbidity and mortality rates. The open abdomen technique, facilitated by applying a negative-pressure wound therapy (NPWT), reduces the duration of the initial surgical procedure, minimizes the accumulation of secretions and inflammatory mediators in the abdominal cavity and lowers the risk of abdominal compartment syndrome and its associated complications. Another approach is primary closure of the abdominal aponeurosis, which involves suturing the layers of the abdominal wall. Methods: the objective of this study is to conduct a survival analysis comparing the treatment of severe abdominal sepsis using open abdomen technique versus primary closure after laparotomy in a public hospital in the South of Brazil. We utilized data extracted from electronic medical records to perform both descriptive and survival analysis, employing the Kaplan-Meier curve and a log-rank test. Results: the study sample encompassed 75 laparotomies conducted over a span of 5 years, with 40 cases employing NPWT and 35 cases utilizing primary closure. The overall mortality rate observed was 55%. Notably, survival rates did not exhibit statistical significance when comparing the two methods, even after stratifying the data into separate analysis groups for each technique. Conclusion: recent publications on this subject have reported some favorable outcomes associated with the open abdomen technique underscoring the pressing need for a standardized approach to managing patients with severe, complicated abdominal sepsis.

RESUMO Introdução: a sepse abdominal grave, com peritonite difusa, é um grande desafio para o cirurgião geral, sendo muito frequente as reintervenções cirúrgicas e complicações desta doença, que apresenta morbimortalidade elevada. A proposta do abdome aberto, aplicando-se a terapia por pressão negativa (TPN), reduz o tempo operatório da primeira abordagem cirúrgica, reduz o acúmulo de secreções e mediadores inflamatórios no sítio abdominal, diminui a possibilidade de síndrome compartimental abdominal e suas complicações. A outra técnica é a síntese primária, quando é optado por fechar a parede por completo. Métodos: o objetivo do estudo foi realizar uma análise de sobrevivência comparando os tratamentos de sepse intra-abdominal severa com Abdome Aberto e Fechado após laparotomia em um hospital universitário no sul do Brasil. As variáveis foram obtidas a partir de prontuários eletrônicos de pacientes submetidos à intervenção cirúrgica e realizou-se uma análise descritiva e de sobrevivência usando a curva de Kaplan-Meier e o teste de log-rank. Resultados: a amostra incluiu 75 laparotomias em 5 anos (40 TPN e 35 sínteses primárias), com mortalidade de 55%. A sobrevida entre os métodos de fechamento não demonstrou significância estatística, mesmo após a divisão em um grupo de análise de cada técnica. Conclusão: recentes publicações destacam resultados favoráveis do abdome aberto, enfatizando a necessidade urgente de uma sistematização na assistência de pacientes com sepse abdominal complicada grave.