Estimating Post-treatment Recurrence After Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis Treatment Among Patients With and Without Human Immunodeficiency Virus: The Impact of Assumptions About Death and Missing Follow-up.

BACKGROUND: Quantification of recurrence risk following successful treatment is crucial to evaluating regimens for multidrug- or rifampicin-resistant (MDR/RR) tuberculosis (TB). However, such analyses are complicated when some patients die or become lost during post-treatment follow-up. METHODS: We analyzed data on 1991 patients who successfully completed a longer MDR/RR-TB regimen containing bedaquiline and/or delamanid between 2015 and 2018 in 16 countries. Using 5 approaches for handling post-treatment deaths, we estimated 6-month post-treatment TB recurrence risk overall and by HIV status. We used inverse-probability weighting to account for patients with missing follow-up and investigated the impact of potential bias from excluding these patients without applying inverse-probability weights. RESULTS: The estimated TB recurrence risk was 7.4/1000 (95% credible interval: 3.3-12.8) when deaths were handled as non-recurrences and 7.6/1000 (3.3-13.0) when deaths were censored and inverse-probability weights were applied to account for the excluded deaths. The estimated risks of composite recurrence outcomes were 25.5 (15.3-38.1), 11.7 (6.4-18.2), and 8.6 (4.1-14.4) per 1000 for recurrence or (1) any death, (2) death with unknown or TB-related cause, or (3) TB-related death, respectively. Corresponding relative risks for HIV status varied in direction and magnitude. Exclusion of patients with missing follow-up without inverse-probability weighting had a small impact on estimates. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated 6-month TB recurrence risk was low, and the association with HIV status was inconclusive due to few recurrence events. Estimation of post-treatment recurrence will be enhanced by explicit assumptions about deaths and appropriate adjustment for missing follow-up data.

Effectiveness of Bedaquiline Use beyond Six Months in Patients with Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis.

Rationale: Current recommendations for the treatment of rifampicin- and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis include bedaquiline (BDQ) used for 6 months or longer. Evidence is needed to inform the optimal duration of BDQ. Objectives: We emulated a target trial to estimate the effect of three BDQ duration treatment strategies (6, 7-11, and ⩾12 mo) on the probability of successful treatment among patients receiving a longer individualized regimen for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Methods: To estimate the probability of successful treatment, we implemented a three-step approach comprising cloning, censoring, and inverse probability weighting. Measurements and Main Results: The 1,468 eligible individuals received a median of 4 (interquartile range, 4-5) likely effective drugs. In 87.1% and 77.7% of participants, this included linezolid and clofazimine, respectively. The adjusted probability of successful treatment was 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.81-0.88) for 6 months of BDQ, 0.77 (95% CI, 0.73-0.81) for 7-11 months, and 0.86 (95% CI, 0.83-0.88) for ⩾12 months. Compared with 6 months of BDQ, the ratio of treatment success was 0.91 (95% CI, 0.85-0.96) for 7-11 months and 1.01 (95% CI, 0.96-1.06) for ⩾12 months. Naive analyses that did not account for bias revealed a higher probability of successful treatment with ⩾12 months (ratio, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.05-1.14]). Conclusions: BDQ use beyond 6 months did not increase the probability of successful treatment among patients receiving longer regimens that commonly included new and repurposed drugs. When not properly accounted for, immortal person-time bias can influence estimates of the effects of treatment duration. Future analyses should explore the effect of treatment duration of BDQ and other drugs in subgroups with advanced disease and/or receiving less potent regimens.

Estimating post-treatment recurrence after multidrug-resistant tuberculosis treatment among patients with and without HIV: the impact of assumptions about death and missing follow-up.

Background: Quantification of recurrence risk following successful treatment is crucial to evaluating regimens for multidrug- or rifampicin-resistant (MDR/RR) tuberculosis (TB). However, such analyses are complicated when some patients die or become lost during post-treatment-follow-up. Methods: We analyzed data on 1,991 patients who successfully completed a longer MDR/RR-TB regimen containing bedaquiline and/or delamanid between 2015 and 2018 in 16 countries. Using five approaches for handling post-treatment deaths, we estimated the six-month post-treatment TB recurrence risk overall, and by HIV status. We used inverse-probability-weighting to account for patients with missing follow-up and investigated the impact of potential bias from excluding these patients without applying inverse-probability weights. Results: The estimated TB recurrence risk was 6.6 per 1000 (95% confidence interval (CI):3.2,11.2) when deaths were handled as non-recurrences, and 6.7 per 1000 (95% CI:2.8,12.2) when deaths were censored and inverse-probability weights were applied to account for the excluded deaths. The estimated risk of composite recurrence outcomes were 24.2 (95% CI:14.1,37.0), 10.5 (95% CI:5.6,16.6), and 7.8 (95% CI:3.9,13.2) per 1000 for recurrence or 1) any death, 2) death with unknown or TB-related cause, 3) TB-related death, respectively. Corresponding relative risks for HIV status varied in direction and magnitude. Exclusion of patients with missing follow-up without inverse-probability-weighting had a small but apparent impact on estimates. Conclusion: The estimated six-month TB recurrence risk was low, and the association with HIV status was inconclusive due to few recurrence events. Estimation of post-treatment recurrence will be enhanced by explicit assumptions about deaths and appropriate adjustment for missing follow-up data.