COVID-19 mortality risk for older men and women.

BACKGROUND: Case-fatality from COVID-19 has been reported to be relatively high in patients age 65 years or older. We sought to determine the age-specific rates of COVID-19 mortality at the population level. METHODS: We obtained information regarding the total number of COVID-19 reported deaths for six consecutive weeks beginning at the 50th recorded death, among 16 countries that reported a relatively high number of COVID-19 cases as of April 12, 2020. We performed an ecological study to model COVID-19 mortality rates per week by age group (54 years or younger, 55-64 years, and 65 years or older) and sex using a Poisson mixed effects regression model. RESULTS: Over the six-week period of data, there were 178,568 COVID-19 deaths from a total population of approximately 2.4 billion people. Age and sex were associated with COVID-19 mortality. Compared with individuals ages 54 years or younger, the incident rate ratio (IRR) was 8.1, indicating that the mortality rate of COVID-19 was 8.1 times higher (95%CI = 7.7, 8.5) among those 55 to 64 years, and more than 62 times higher (IRR = 62.1; 95%CI = 59.7, 64.7) among those ages 65 or older. Mortality rates from COVID-19 were 77% higher in men than in women (IRR = 1.77, 95%CI = 1.74, 1.79). CONCLUSIONS: In the 16 countries examined, persons age 65 years or older had strikingly higher COVID-19 mortality rates compared to younger individuals, and men had a higher risk of COVID-19 death than women.

Novel clinical scores for occupational asthma due to exposure to high-molecular-weight agents.

OBJECTIVE: Specific inhalation challenge (SIC) as the reference diagnostic test for occupational asthma (OA) is not widely available worldwide. We aimed to develop non-SIC-based models for OA. METHODS: Of 427 workers who were exposed to high-molecular-weight agents and referred to OA clinic at Montréal Sacré-Cœur Hospital between 1983 and 2016, we analysed 160 workers who completed non-specific bronchial hyper-responsiveness (NSBHR) tests and still worked 1 month before SIC. OA was defined as positive SIC. Logistic regression models were developed. The accuracy of the models was quantified using calibration and discrimination measures. Their internal validity was evaluated with bootstrapping procedures. The final models were translated into clinical scores and stratified into probability groups. RESULTS: The final model, which included age ≤40 years, rhinoconjunctivitis, inhaled corticosteroid use, agent type, NSBHR, and work-specific sensitisation had a reasonable internal validity. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) was 0.91 (95% CI 0.86 to 0.95), statistically significantly higher than the combination of positive NSBHR and work-specific sensitisation (AUC=0.84). The top 70% of the clinical scores (ie, the high probability group) showed a significantly higher sensitivity (96.4%vs86.9%) and negative predictive value (93.6%vs84.1%) than the combination of positive NSBHR and work-specific sensitisation (p value <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: We developed novel scores for OA induced by high-molecular-weight agents with excellent discrimination. It could be helpful for secondary-care physicians who have access to pulmonary function test and allergy testing in identifying subjects at a high risk of having OA and in deciding on appropriate referral to a tertiary centre.

[Teachers' assessment practices in context of nursing clinical education : a qualitative descriptive study.] / Les pratiques évaluatives d'enseignants en soins infirmiers lors des stages : une étude descriptive qualitative.

Since no study has yet been able to assess the Quebec portrait of teachers' evaluation practices in the context of clinical education in nursing. Considering the importance of clinical teaching and evaluation in the education of nursing students, this study is justified. This article presents the results of a study that aimed to describe and understand the experience of teachers in the ongoing assessment of nursing students' learning during clinical education. It aimed to describe the evaluation practices of teachers during the learning of students in clinical education and achievement context, and to identify factors influencing these practices. In the context of descriptive qualitative research, the data collection was mainly based on the description of practices reported and collected during interviews realized with 10 nursing teachers of a college of the region of Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean (SLSJ, Quebec, Canada). The results allowed, for instance, to identify and to describe the evaluation practices led in this specific context of the study : the direct and indirect observation ; the questions asked to the sudent and to the group of sutdents and individual and group feed-back. They also allowed to enumerate and to categorize factors which can influence these practices, that is facilitates factors, barriers and faiths.

[Occupational asthma]. / Asthme professionnel.

Occupational asthma is the most common occupational respiratory disease. It mainly affects young workers with significant socio-economic consequences. Early recognition improves its prognosis. A rigorous investigative approach while the worker is still exposed at work and appropriate medical care require a multi-disciplinary collaboration. Prevention is the key element in the management of professional asthma.

L'asthme professionnel est la plus fréquente des maladies respiratoires professionnelles. Il touche surtout les travailleurs jeunes et a des conséquences socio-économiques importantes. Le reconnaître précocement permet d'améliorer le pronostic. Une investigation rigoureuse, pendant que le travailleur est encore exposé sur son lieu de travail, et un suivi médical approprié nécessitent une collaboration pluridisciplinaire. La prévention reste l'élément essentiel dans la prise en charge de cette maladie.

Anopheles arabiensis seasonal densities and infection rates in relation to landscape classes and climatic parameters in a Sahelian area of Senegal.

BACKGROUND: The influence of environmental and climatic factors on malaria vector bionomics and transmission is an important topic in the context of climatic change particularly at macro-geographical level. Sahelian areas could be particularly affected due to heterogeneous features including high inter-annual variability in rainfall and others associated parameters. Therefore, baseline information on the impact of environmental and climatic factors on malaria transmission at micro-geographical level is required for vector risk management and implementation of control strategies. METHODS: Malaria vectors were collected indoors by pyrethrum spray catches in 14 villages belonging to 4 different landscape classes (wooded savanna, shrubby savanna, bare soils and steppe) in the sylvo-pastoral area of Senegal. Plasmodium falciparum infection rates were determined using an indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). RESULTS: An. arabiensis was the predominant species in all landscape classes and was the only species collected at the end of the rainy season excepted in villages located in bare soils where it cohabited with An. coluzzii. Mean temperature and relative humidity showed similar variations in all the landscape classes covered whereas rainfall was more heterogeneous in terms of pattern, frequency and amount. The mean densities of An. arabiensis displayed high seasonal differences with peaks observed in August or September. A positive non-significant correlation was observed between An. arabiensis densities for rainfall and humidity whereas a negative non-significant correlation was reported for temperature. Plasmodium falciparum-infected mosquitoes were detected only in wooded savanna and bare soils villages. CONCLUSIONS: These observations suggest key roles played by landscape classes and rainfall in malaria vector densities, infection rates and malaria transmission that could be more pronounced in villages situated in wooded savanna and bare soils. Due to the close relationship between environmental and meteorological parameters in this Sahelian region, additional studies on the impact of these parameters are required to further ascertain their association with entomological parameters involved in malaria transmission. From the public health point of view, such information could be useful for human population settlements as well as for monitoring and modelling purposes giving early warning system for implementation of interventions in these unstable transmission zones.

Decision making environment on Rift Valley fever in Ferlo (Senegal).

The Rift Valley fever (RVF), which first appeared in Kenya in 1912, is an anthropozoonosis widespread in tropical areas. In Senegal, it is particularly felt in the Ferlo area where a strong presence of ponds shared by humans, cattle and vectors is noted. As part of the studies carried out on the environmental factors which favour its start and propagation, the focus of this paper is put on the decision making process to evaluate the impacts, the interactions and to make RVF monitoring easier. The present paper proposes a model based on data mining techniques and dedicated to trade experts. This model integrates all the involved data and the results of the analyses made on the characteristics of the surrounding ponds. This approach presents some advantage in revealing the relationship between environmental factors and RVF transmission vectors for space-time epidemiology monitoring purpose.

Increasing load carriage and running speed differentially affect the magnitude, variability and coordination patterns of muscle forces.

The study aims to investigate the effects of different loads and speed during running on inter- and intra-individual muscle force amplitudes, variabilities and coordination patterns. Nine healthy participants ran on an instrumentalized treadmill with an empty weight vest at two velocities (2.6 m/s and 3.3 m/s) or while carrying three different loads (4.5, 9.1, 13.6 kg) at 2.6 m/s while kinematics and kinetics were synchronously recorded. The major lower limb muscle forces were estimated using a musculoskeletal model. Muscle force amplitudes and variability, as well as coordination patterns were compared at the group and at the individual level using respectively statistical parametric mapping and covariance matrices combined with multidimensional scaling. Increasing the speed or the load during running increased most of the muscle force amplitudes (p < 0.01). During the propulsion phase, increasing the load increased muscle force variabilities around the ankle joint (modification of standard deviation up to 5% of body weight (BW), p < 0.05) while increasing the speed decreased variability for almost all the muscle forces (up to 10% of BW, p < 0.05). Each runner has a specific muscle force coordination pattern signature regardless of the different experimental conditions (p < 0.05). Yet, this individual pattern was slightly adapted in response to a change of speed or load (p < 0.05). Our results suggest that adding load increases the amplitude and variability of muscle force, but an increase in running speed decreases the variability. These findings may help improve the design of military or trail running training programs and injury rehabilitation by progressively increasing the mechanical load on anatomical structures.

Effects of Climate Variability on Malaria Transmission in Southern Côte d'Ivoire, West Africa.

Malaria continues to be a major public health concern with a substantial burden in Africa. Even though it has been widely demonstrated that malaria transmission is climate-driven, there have been very few studies assessing the relationship between climate variables and malaria transmission in Côte d'Ivoire. We used the VECTRI model to predict malaria transmission in southern Côte d'Ivoire. First, we tested the suitability of VECTRI in modeling malaria transmission using ERA5 temperature data and ARC2 rainfall data. We then used the projected climatic data pertaining to 2030, 2050, and 2080 from a set of 14 simulations from the CORDEX-Africa database to compute VECTRI outputs. The entomological inoculation rate (EIR) from the VECTRI model was well correlated with the observed malaria cases from 2010 to 2019, including the peaks of malaria cases and the EIR. However, the correlation between the two parameters was not statistically significant. The VECTRI model predicted an increase in malaria transmissions in both scenarios (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) for the time period 2030 to 2080. The monthly EIR for RCP8.5 was very high (1.74 to 1131.71 bites/person) compared to RCP4.5 (0.48 to 908 bites/person). These findings call for greater efforts to control malaria that take into account the impact of climatic factors.

Epoetin administrated after cardiac surgery: effects on renal function and inflammation in a randomized controlled study.

BACKGROUND: Experimentally, erythropoietin (EPO) has nephroprotective as well as immunomodulatory properties when administered after ischemic renal injury. We tested the hypothesis that different doses of recombinant human EPO administered to patients after cardiac surgery would minimize kidney lesions and the systemic inflammatory response, thereby decreasing acute kidney injury (AKI) incidence. METHODS: In this double-blinded randomized control study, 80 patients admitted to the ICU post-cardiac surgery were randomized by computer to receive intravenously isotonic saline (n = 40) versus α-Epoetin (n = 40): either 40000 IU (n = 20) or 20000 IU (n = 20). The study lasted one year. The primary outcome was the change in urinary NGAL concentration from baseline and 48 h after EPO injection. Creatinine, cystatine C and urinary NGAL levels were measured on the day of randomization and 2-4 days after EPO injection. To assess acute inflammatory response, serum cytokines (IL6 and IL8) were measured at randomization and four days after r-HuEPO injection. Patients and care-takers were blinded for the assignment. RESULTS: No patient was excluded after randomization. Patient groups did not differ in terms of age, gender, comorbidities and renal function at randomization. The rate of AKI assessed by AKIN criteria was 22.5% in our population. EPO treatment did not significantly modify the difference in uNGAl between 48 hours and randomization compared to placebo [2.5 ng/ml (-17.3; 22.5) vs 0.7 ng/ml (-31.77; 25.15), p = 0.77] and the incidence of AKI was similar. Inflammatory cytokines levels were not influenced by EPO treatment. Mortality and hospital stays were similar between the groups and no adverse event was recorded. CONCLUSION: In this randomized-controlled trial, α-Epoetin administrated after cardiac surgery, although safe, demonstrated neither nephroprotective nor anti-inflammatory properties. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00676234.

Patient, physician, encounter, and billing characteristics predict the accuracy of syndromic surveillance case definitions.

BACKGROUND: Syndromic surveillance systems are plagued by high false-positive rates. In chronic disease monitoring, investigators have identified several factors that predict the accuracy of case definitions based on diagnoses in administrative data, and some have even incorporated these predictors into novel case detection methods, resulting in a significant improvement in case definition accuracy. Based on findings from these studies, we sought to identify physician, patient, encounter, and billing characteristics associated with the positive predictive value (PPV) of case definitions for 5 syndromes (fever, gastrointestinal, neurological, rash, and respiratory (including influenza-like illness)). METHODS: The study sample comprised 4,330 syndrome-positive visits from the claims of 1,098 randomly-selected physicians working in Quebec, Canada in 2005-2007. For each visit, physician-facilitated chart review was used to assess whether the same syndrome was present in the medical chart (gold standard). We used multivariate logistic regression analyses to estimate the association between claim-chart agreement about the presence of a syndrome and physician, patient, encounter, and billing characteristics. RESULTS: The likelihood of the medical chart agreeing with the physician claim about the presence of a syndrome was higher when the treating physician had billed many visits for the same syndrome recently (ORper 10 visit, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01-1.08), had a lower workload (ORper 10 claims, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.90-0.97), and when the patient was younger (ORper 5 years of age, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.94-0.97), and less socially deprived (ORmost versus least deprived, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.60-0.95). CONCLUSIONS: Many physician, patient, encounter, and billing characteristics associated with the PPV of surveillance case definition are accessible to public health, and could be used to reduce false-positive alerts by surveillance systems, either by focusing on the data most likely to be accurate, or by adjusting the observed data for known biases in diagnosis reporting and performing surveillance using the adjusted values.

Do physician communication skills influence screening mammography utilization?

BACKGROUND: The quality of physician communication skills influences health-related decisions, including use of cancer screening tests. We assessed whether patient-physician communication examination scores in a national, standardized clinical skills examination predicted future use of screening mammography (SM). METHODS: Cohort study of 413 physicians taking the Medical Council of Canada clinical skills examination between 1993 and 1996, with follow up until 2006. Administrative claims for SM performed within 12 months of a comprehensive health maintenance visit for women 50-69 years old were reviewed. Multivariable regression was used to estimate the relationship between physician communication skills exam score and patients' SM use while controlling for other factors. RESULTS: Overall, 33.8 % of 96,708 eligible women who visited study physicians between 1993 and 2006 had an SM in the 12 months following an index visit. Patient-related factors associated with increased SM use included higher income, non-urban residence, low Charlson co-morbidity index, prior benign breast biopsy and an interval >12 months since the previous mammogram. Physician-related factors associated with increased use of SM included female sex, surgical specialty, and higher communication skills score. After adjusting for physician and patient-related factors, the odds of SM increased by 24 % for 2SD increase in communication score (OR: 1.24, 95 % CI: 1.11 - 1.38). This impact was even greater in urban areas (OR 1.30, 95 % CI: 1.16, 1.46) and did not vary with practice experience (interaction p-value 0.74). CONCLUSION: Physicians with better communication skills documented by a standardized licensing examination were more successful at obtaining SM for their patients.

Wirsungostomy as a salvage procedure after pancreaticoduodenectomy.

BACKGROUND: Mortality rates associated with postoperative peritonitis or haemorrhage secondary to pancreatic fistula (PF) after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) remain high. This study analysed the results of an alternative management strategy for these life-threatening complications. METHODS: All patients undergoing PD between January 2004 and April 2011 were identified. Patients who underwent further laparotomy for failure of the pancreatico-digestive anastomosis were identified. Since 2004, this problem has been managed by dismantling the pancreatico-digestive anastomosis and cannulating the pancreatic duct remnant with a thin polyethylene tube (Escat tube), which is then passed through the abdominal wall. Main outcome measures were mortality, morbidity and longterm outcome. RESULTS: From January 2004 to April 2011, 244 patients underwent a PD. Postoperatively, 21 (8.6%) patients required re-laparotomy to facilitate a wirsungostomy. Two patients were transferred from another hospital with life-threatening PF after PD. Causes of re-laparotomy were haemorrhage (n= 12), peritonitis (n= 4), septic shock (n= 4) and mesenteric ischaemia (n= 1). Of the 21 patients who underwent wirsungostomy, six patients subsequently died of liver failure (n= 3), refractory septic shock (n= 2) or mesenteric ischaemia (n= 1) and nine patients suffered complications. The median length of hospital stay was 42 days (range: 34-60 days). The polyethylene tube at the pancreatic duct was removed at a median of 4 months (range: 2-11 months). Three patients developed diabetes mellitus during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that preservation of the pancreatic remnant with wirsungostomy has a role in the management of patients with uncontrolled haemorrhage or peritonitis after PF.

Inter-strides variability affects internal foot tissue loadings during running.

Running overuse injuries result from an imbalance between repetitive loadings on the anatomical structures and their ability to adapt to these loadings. Unfortunately, the measure of these in-vivo loadings is not easily accessible. An optimal amount of movement variability is thought to decrease the running overuse injury risk, but the influence of movement variability on local tissue loading is still not known. A 3D dynamic finite element foot model driven by extrinsic muscle forces was developed to estimate the stress undergone by the different internal foot structures during the stance phase. The boundary conditions of different trials with similar running speed were used as input. Variability in bone stress (10%) and cartilage pressure (16%) can be expected while keeping the overall running speed constant. Bone and cartilage stress were mainly influenced by the muscle force profiles rather than by ground reaction force. These findings suggest, first, that the analysis of a single trial only is not representative of the internal tissue loadings distribution in the foot and second, that muscle forces must be considered when estimating bone and cartilage loadings at the foot level. This model could be applied to an optimal clinical management of the overuse injury.

Malaria in Senegal: Recent and Future Changes Based on Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Simulations.

Malaria is a constant reminder of the climate change impacts on health. Many studies have investigated the influence of climatic parameters on aspects of malaria transmission. Climate conditions can modulate malaria transmission through increased temperature, which reduces the duration of the parasite's reproductive cycle inside the mosquito. The rainfall intensity and frequency modulate the mosquito population's development intensity. In this study, the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM) was used to simulate the spatiotemporal variation of malaria incidence in Senegal. The simulations were based on the WATCH Forcing Data applied to ERA-Interim data (WFDEI) used as a point of reference, and the biased-corrected CMIP6 model data, separating historical simulations and future projections for three Shared Socio-economic Pathways scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). Our results highlight a strong increase in temperatures, especially within eastern Senegal under the SSP245 but more notably for the SSP585 scenario. The ability of the LMM model to simulate the seasonality of malaria incidence was assessed for the historical simulations. The model revealed a period of high malaria transmission between September and November with a maximum reached in October, and malaria results for historical and future trends revealed how malaria transmission will change. Results indicate a decrease in malaria incidence in certain regions of the country for the far future and the extreme scenario. This study is important for the planning, prioritization, and implementation of malaria control activities in Senegal.

Heat waves and health risks in the northern part of Senegal: analysing the distribution of temperature-related diseases and associated risk factors.

The Sahelian zone of Senegal experienced heat waves in the previous decades, such as 2013, 2016 and 2018 that were characterised by temperatures exceeding 45°C for up to 3 successive days. The health impacts of these heat waves are not yet analysed in Senegal although their negative effects have been shown in many countries. This study analyses the health impacts of observed extreme temperatures in the Sahelian zone of the country, focusing on morbidity and mortality by combining data from station observation, climate model projections, and household survey to investigate heat wave detection, occurrence of climate-sensitive diseases and risk factors for exposure. To do this, a set of climatic (temperatures) and health (morbidity, mortality) data were collected for the months of April, May and June from 2009 to 2019. These data have been completed with 1246 households' surveys on risk factor exposure. Statistical methods were used to carry out univariate and bivariate analyses while cartographic techniques allowed mapping of the main climatic and health indicators. The results show an increase in temperatures compared to seasonal normal for the 1971-2000 reference period with threshold exceedances of the 90th percentiles (42°C) for the maxima and (27°C) the minima and higher temperatures during the months of May and June. From health perspective, it was noted an increase in cases of consultation in health facilities as well as a rise in declared morbidity by households especially in the departments of Kanel (17.7%), Ranérou (16.1 %), Matam (13.7%) and Bakel (13.7%). The heat waves of May 2013 were also associated with cases of death with a reported mortality (observed by medical staff) of 12.4% unequally distributed according to the departments with a higher number of deaths in Matam (25, 2%) and in Bakel (23.5%) than in Podor (8.4%) and Kanel (0.8%). The morbidity and mortality distribution according to gender shows that women (57%) were more affected than men (43%). These health risks have been associated with a number of factors including age, access to drinkable water, type of fuel, type of housing and construction materials, existence of fan and an air conditioner, and health history.The heat wave recurrence has led to a frequency in certain diseases sensitive to rising temperatures, which is increasingly a public health issue in the Sahelian zone of Senegal.

ScvO(2) as a marker to define fluid responsiveness.

BACKGROUND: Definition of the hemodynamic response to volume expansion (VE) could be useful in shocked critically ill patients in absence of cardiac index (CI) measurements. The aim of this study is to evaluate whether central venous oxygen saturation variations (ΔScvO(2)) after VE could be an alternative to classify responders (R) and nonresponders (NR) to volume therapy. METHODS: A total of 30 patients requiring VE were included in this prospective cohort study, all equipped with radial arterial line and pulmonary artery catheters. CI, mixed venous oxygen saturation (SvO(2)) and ScvO(2) were measured before and after VE. CI, SvO(2), and ScvO(2) changes after volume were analyzed using linear regression. Receiver operating characteristics curve analysis was used to test their ability to distinguish R and NR. RESULTS: ΔScvO(2) and SvO(2) variations after VE (ΔSvO(2)) were significantly correlated with CI changes (ΔCI) after VE (r = 0.67 and r = 0.49, p < 0.001, respectively). A ΔScvO(2) threshold value of 4% allowed the definition of R and NR patients with 86% sensitivity (95%CI; 57-98%) and 81% specificity (95%CI; 54-96%). CONCLUSIONS: ScvO2 variations after VE was able to categorize VE efficiently and could be suggested as an alternative marker to define fluid responsiveness in absence of invasive CI measurement.

Accuracy of syndrome definitions based on diagnoses in physician claims.

BACKGROUND: Community clinics offer potential for timelier outbreak detection and monitoring than emergency departments. However, the accuracy of syndrome definitions used in surveillance has never been evaluated in community settings. This study's objective was to assess the accuracy of syndrome definitions based on diagnostic codes in physician claims for identifying 5 syndromes (fever, gastrointestinal, neurological, rash, and respiratory including influenza-like illness) in community clinics. METHODS: We selected a random sample of 3,600 community-based primary care physicians who practiced in the fee-for-service system in the province of Quebec, Canada in 2005-2007. We randomly selected 10 visits per physician from their claims, stratifying on syndrome type and presence, diagnosis, and month. Double-blinded chart reviews were conducted by telephone with consenting physicians to obtain information on patient diagnoses for each sampled visit. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value (PPV) of physician claims were estimated by comparison to chart review. RESULTS: 1,098 (30.5%) physicians completed the chart review. A chart entry on the date of the corresponding claim was found for 10,529 (95.9%) visits. The sensitivity of syndrome definitions based on diagnostic codes in physician claims was low, ranging from 0.11 (fever) to 0.44 (respiratory), the specificity was high, and the PPV was moderate to high, ranging from 0.59 (fever) to 0.85 (respiratory). We found that rarely used diagnostic codes had a higher probability of being false-positives, and that more commonly used diagnostic codes had a higher PPV. CONCLUSIONS: Future research should identify physician, patient, and encounter characteristics associated with the accuracy of diagnostic codes in physician claims. This would enable public health to improve syndromic surveillance, either by focusing on physician claims whose diagnostic code is more likely to be accurate, or by using all physician claims and weighing each according to the likelihood that its diagnostic code is accurate.

Influence of tidal volume on pulse pressure variations in hypovolemic ventilated pigs with acute respiratory distress-like syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Sensitivity and specificity of respiratory change in pulse pressure (DeltaPP) to predict preload dependency has been questioned at small tidal volumes (VT) in critically ill patients suffering from acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We studied DeltaPP in pigs with ARDS-like syndrome during reversible hemorrhagic shock. METHODS: Prospective, observational animal study in a Laboratory Investigation Unit. Sixteen deeply sedated mechanically ventilated pigs were successively ventilated with VT of 10 ml/kg at a respiratory rate of 15 breaths/min (RR15) and VT of 6 ml/kg at RR15 and RR25. ARDS-like syndrome was produced by lung lavage in eight pigs (ARDS group). Severe hemorrhagic shock was induced by removal of 40% of total blood volume followed by restoration. RESULTS: After bleeding, in the control group ventilated with a VT of 10 ml/kg, DeltaPP increased from 8.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.1 to 9.9%) to 18.5% (CI, 15.3 to 21.7%; P<0.05). In the ARDS group, this index increased similarly, from 7.1% (95% CI, 5.3 to 9.0%) to 20.1% (CI, 15.3 to 24.9%; P<0.05). In control lungs, reduction in VT from 10 to 6 ml/kg reduced the DeltaPP reaction by 40%, although it remained a statistically valid indicator of hypovolemia regardless of the RR value. In contrast, in the ARDS group, DeltaPP was an unreliable hypovolemia marker at low VT ventilation, regardless of the RR value (p=not statistically significant). CONCLUSIONS: The present study suggests that DeltaPP is a reliable indicator of severe hypovolemia in pigs with healthy lungs regardless of VT or RR. In contrast, in pigs with ARDS-like syndrome ventilated with small VT, DeltaPP is not a good indicator of severe hemorrhage. However, in this setting, indexing DeltaPP to respiratory changes in transpulmonary pressure allows this marker to significantly indicate the occurrence of hypovolemia.

Climate Variability and Malaria over West Africa.

Malaria is a major public health problem in West Africa. Previous studies have shown that climate variability significantly affects malaria transmission. The lack of continuous observed weather station data and the absence of surveillance data for malaria over long periods have led to the use of reanalysis data to drive malaria models. In this study, we use the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM) to simulate spatiotemporal variability of malaria in West Africa using daily rainfall and temperature from the following: Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20th CR), National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Atmospheric Reanalysis of the Twentieth Century (ERA20C), and interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim). Malaria case data from the national surveillance program in Senegal are used for model validation between 2001 and 2016. The warm temperatures found over the Sahelian fringe of West Africa can lead to high malaria transmission during wet years. The rainfall season peaks in July to September over West Africa and Senegal, and the malaria season lasts from September to November, about 1-2 months after the rainfall peak. The long-term trends exhibit interannual and decadal variabilities. The LMM shows acceptable performance in simulating the spatial distribution of malaria incidence. However, some discrepancies are found. These results are useful for decision-makers who plan public health and control measures in affected West African countries. The study would have substantial implications for directing malaria surveillance activities and health policy. In addition, this malaria modeling framework could lead to the development of an early warning system for malaria in West Africa.

Randomized trial of light versus deep sedation on mental health after critical illness.

OBJECTIVES: : To investigate if light sedation favorably affects subsequent patient mental health compared with deep sedation. Symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder are common in patients after they have undergone prolonged mechanical ventilation and are associated with sedation depth. DESIGN: : Randomized, open-label, controlled trial. SETTING: : Single tertiary care center. PATIENTS: : Adult patients requiring mechanical ventilation. INTERVENTIONS: : Patients were randomized to receive either light (patient awake and cooperative) or deep sedation (patient asleep, awakening upon physical stimulation). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: : Self-reported measures of posttraumatic stress disorder, anxiety, and depression were collected at intensive care unit discharge and 4 wks later. The primary outcomes were symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder, anxiety, and depression 4 wks after intensive care unit discharge.A total of 137 patients were assigned to either the light (n = 69) or the deep sedation (n = 68) group. Seven patients withdrew consent and one patient was randomized in error, leaving 129 patients (n = 65 in light sedation and n = 64 in deep sedation) available for analysis. At the 4-wk follow-up, patients in the deep sedation group tended to have more posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms (p = .07); the deep sedation group had more trouble remembering the event (37% vs. 14%; p = .02) and more disturbing memories of the intensive care unit (18% vs. 4%; p = .05). Patients in the light sedation group had an average one day less being ventilated and 1.5 fewer days in the intensive care unit. There were no differences between the two groups in the occurrence of anxiety and depression, and also no difference in mortality or in the incidence of adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: : These data suggest that a strategy of light sedation affords benefits with regard to reduction of intensive care unit stay and duration of ventilation without negatively affecting subsequent patient mental health or patient safety.