Prevention efficacy of the broadly neutralizing antibody VRC01 depends on HIV-1 envelope sequence features.

In the Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials (HVTN 704/HPTN 085 and HVTN 703/HPTN 081), prevention efficacy (PE) of the monoclonal broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) VRC01 (vs. placebo) against HIV-1 acquisition diagnosis varied according to the HIV-1 Envelope (Env) neutralization sensitivity to VRC01, as measured by 80% inhibitory concentration (IC80). Here, we performed a genotypic sieve analysis, a complementary approach to gaining insight into correlates of protection that assesses how PE varies with HIV-1 sequence features. We analyzed HIV-1 Env amino acid (AA) sequences from the earliest available HIV-1 RNA-positive plasma samples from AMP participants diagnosed with HIV-1 and identified Env sequence features that associated with PE. The strongest Env AA sequence correlate in both trials was VRC01 epitope distance that quantifies the divergence of the VRC01 epitope in an acquired HIV-1 isolate from the VRC01 epitope of reference HIV-1 strains that were most sensitive to VRC01-mediated neutralization. In HVTN 704/HPTN 085, the Env sequence-based predicted probability that VRC01 IC80 against the acquired isolate exceeded 1 µg/mL also significantly associated with PE. In HVTN 703/HPTN 081, a physicochemical-weighted Hamming distance across 50 VRC01 binding-associated Env AA positions of the acquired isolate from the most VRC01-sensitive HIV-1 strain significantly associated with PE. These results suggest that incorporating mutation scoring by BLOSUM62 and weighting by the strength of interactions at AA positions in the epitope:VRC01 interface can optimize performance of an Env sequence-based biomarker of VRC01 prevention efficacy. Future work could determine whether these results extend to other bnAbs and bnAb combinations.

Two Randomized Trials of Neutralizing Antibodies to Prevent HIV-1 Acquisition.

BACKGROUND: Whether a broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) can be used to prevent human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) acquisition is unclear. METHODS: We enrolled at-risk cisgender men and transgender persons in the Americas and Europe in the HVTN 704/HPTN 085 trial and at-risk women in sub-Saharan Africa in the HVTN 703/HPTN 081 trial. Participants were randomly assigned to receive, every 8 weeks, infusions of a bnAb (VRC01) at a dose of either 10 or 30 mg per kilogram (low-dose group and high-dose group, respectively) or placebo, for 10 infusions in total. HIV-1 testing was performed every 4 weeks. The VRC01 80% inhibitory concentration (IC80) of acquired isolates was measured with the TZM-bl assay. RESULTS: Adverse events were similar in number and severity among the treatment groups within each trial. Among the 2699 participants in HVTN 704/HPTN 085, HIV-1 infection occurred in 32 in the low-dose group, 28 in the high-dose group, and 38 in the placebo group. Among the 1924 participants in HVTN 703/HPTN 081, infection occurred in 28 in the low-dose group, 19 in the high-dose group, and 29 in the placebo group. The incidence of HIV-1 infection per 100 person-years in HVTN 704/HPTN 085 was 2.35 in the pooled VRC01 groups and 2.98 in the placebo group (estimated prevention efficacy, 26.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI], -11.7 to 51.8; P = 0.15), and the incidence per 100 person-years in HVTN 703/HPTN 081 was 2.49 in the pooled VRC01 groups and 3.10 in the placebo group (estimated prevention efficacy, 8.8%; 95% CI, -45.1 to 42.6; P = 0.70). In prespecified analyses pooling data across the trials, the incidence of infection with VRC01-sensitive isolates (IC80 <1 µg per milliliter) per 100 person-years was 0.20 among VRC01 recipients and 0.86 among placebo recipients (estimated prevention efficacy, 75.4%; 95% CI, 45.5 to 88.9). The prevention efficacy against sensitive isolates was similar for each VRC01 dose and trial; VRC01 did not prevent acquisition of other HIV-1 isolates. CONCLUSIONS: VRC01 did not prevent overall HIV-1 acquisition more effectively than placebo, but analyses of VRC01-sensitive HIV-1 isolates provided proof-of-concept that bnAb prophylaxis can be effective. (Supported by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; HVTN 704/HPTN 085 and HVTN 703/HPTN 081 ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT02716675 and NCT02568215.).

Violence Exposure Among Women in the Sex Industry and Their Children in El Alto, Bolivia: A Comparative Cross-Sectional Study.

We conducted a comparative cross-sectional study to compare the prevalence of exposure to workplace violence and intimate partner violence (IPV) in 125 female sex workers (FSWs) and 125 age-matched control women working in other professions (non-FSWs) and their children in El Alto, Bolivia. Violence exposure was assessed using the Demographic Health Survey Domestic Violence Module. To determine associations between work type and violence exposure, we conducted multivariate logistic regression. One-third of working mothers experienced sexual IPV, regardless of their profession. FSWs experienced higher rates of severe physical IPV and workplace violence. Children of FSWs were approximately three times more likely to be exposed to violence in the workplace. In Bolivia, strategies to reduce exposure to violence within the home and in FSW workplaces are paramount to minimizing negative impacts on women and their children. These findings have implications for policies to improve education, living wages, and social interventions to prevent and mitigate violence against women and children.

Clinical Endpoints for Evaluating Efficacy in COVID-19 Vaccine Trials.

Several vaccine candidates to protect against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection or coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have entered or will soon enter large-scale, phase 3, placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials. To facilitate harmonized evaluation and comparison of the efficacy of these vaccines, a general set of clinical endpoints is proposed, along with considerations to guide the selection of the primary endpoints on the basis of clinical and statistical reasoning. The plausibility that vaccine protection against symptomatic COVID-19 could be accompanied by a shift toward more SARS-CoV-2 infections that are asymptomatic is highlighted, as well as the potential implications of such a shift.

A Deferred-Vaccination Design to Assess Durability of COVID-19 Vaccine Effect After the Placebo Group Is Vaccinated.

Multiple candidate vaccines to prevent COVID-19 have entered large-scale phase 3 placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials, and several have demonstrated substantial short-term efficacy. At some point after demonstration of substantial efficacy, placebo recipients should be offered the efficacious vaccine from their trial, which will occur before longer-term efficacy and safety are known. The absence of a placebo group could compromise assessment of longer-term vaccine effects. However, by continuing follow-up after vaccination of the placebo group, this study shows that placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy can be mathematically derived by assuming that the benefit of vaccination over time has the same profile for the original vaccine recipients and the original placebo recipients after their vaccination. Although this derivation provides less precise estimates than would be obtained by a standard trial where the placebo group remains unvaccinated, this proposed approach allows estimation of longer-term effect, including durability of vaccine efficacy and whether the vaccine eventually becomes harmful for some. Deferred vaccination, if done open-label, may lead to riskier behavior in the unblinded original vaccine group, confounding estimates of long-term vaccine efficacy. Hence, deferred vaccination via blinded crossover, where the vaccine group receives placebo and vice versa, would be the preferred way to assess vaccine durability and potential delayed harm. Deferred vaccination allows placebo recipients timely access to the vaccine when it would no longer be proper to maintain them on placebo, yet still allows important insights about immunologic and clinical effectiveness over time.

Inference on treatment effect modification by biomarker response in a three-phase sampling design.

An objective in randomized clinical trials is the evaluation of "principal surrogates," which consists of analyzing how the treatment effect on a clinical endpoint varies over principal strata subgroups defined by an intermediate response outcome under both or one of the treatment assignments. The latter effect modification estimand has been termed the marginal causal effect predictiveness (mCEP) curve. This objective was addressed in two randomized placebo-controlled Phase 3 dengue vaccine trials for an antibody response biomarker whose sampling design rendered previously developed inferential methods highly inefficient due to a three-phase sampling design. In this design, the biomarker was measured in a case-cohort sample and a key baseline auxiliary strongly associated with the biomarker (the "baseline surrogate measure") was only measured in a further sub-sample. We propose a novel approach to estimation of the mCEP curve in such three-phase sampling designs that avoids the restrictive "placebo structural risk" modeling assumption common to past methods and that further improves robustness by the use of non-parametric kernel smoothing for biomarker density estimation. Additionally, we develop bootstrap-based procedures for pointwise and simultaneous confidence intervals and testing of four relevant hypotheses about the mCEP curve. We investigate the finite-sample properties of the proposed methods and compare them to those of an alternative method making the placebo structural risk assumption. Finally, we apply the novel and alternative procedures to the two dengue vaccine trial data sets.

Viral genetic diversity and protective efficacy of a tetravalent dengue vaccine in two phase 3 trials.

Two phase 3 placebo-controlled trials of the CYD-TDV vaccine, evaluated in children aged 2-14 y (CYD14) and 9-16 y (CYD15), demonstrated vaccine efficacy (VE) of 56.5% and 60.8%, respectively, against symptomatic virologically confirmed dengue (VCD). Sieve analyses were conducted to evaluate whether and how VE varied with amino acid sequence features of dengue viruses (DENVs). DENV premembrane/envelope amino acid sequences from VCD endpoint cases were aligned with the vaccine insert sequences, and extensions of the proportional hazards model were applied to assess variation in VE with amino acid mismatch proportion distances from vaccine strains, individual amino acid residues, and phylogenetic genotypes. In CYD14, VE against VCD of any serotype (DENV-Any) decreased significantly with increasing amino acid distance from the vaccine, whereas in CYD15, VE against DENV-Any was distance-invariant. Restricting to the common age range and amino acid distance range between the trials and accounting for differential VE by serotype, however, showed no evidence of VE variation with distance in either trial. In serotype-specific analyses, VE against DENV4 decreased significantly with increasing amino acid distance from the DENV4 vaccine insert and was significantly greater against residue-matched DENV4 at eight signature positions. These effects were restricted to 2- to 8-y-olds, potentially because greater seropositivity of older children at baseline might facilitate a broader protective immune response. The relevance of an antigenic match between vaccine strains and circulating DENVs was also supported by greater estimated VE against serotypes and genotypes for which the circulating DENVs had shorter amino acid sequence distances from the vaccine.

Prediction of VRC01 neutralization sensitivity by HIV-1 gp160 sequence features.

The broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) VRC01 is being evaluated for its efficacy to prevent HIV-1 infection in the Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials. A secondary objective of AMP utilizes sieve analysis to investigate how VRC01 prevention efficacy (PE) varies with HIV-1 envelope (Env) amino acid (AA) sequence features. An exhaustive analysis that tests how PE depends on every AA feature with sufficient variation would have low statistical power. To design an adequately powered primary sieve analysis for AMP, we modeled VRC01 neutralization as a function of Env AA sequence features of 611 HIV-1 gp160 pseudoviruses from the CATNAP database, with objectives: (1) to develop models that best predict the neutralization readouts; and (2) to rank AA features by their predictive importance with classification and regression methods. The dataset was split in half, and machine learning algorithms were applied to each half, each analyzed separately using cross-validation and hold-out validation. We selected Super Learner, a nonparametric ensemble-based cross-validated learning method, for advancement to the primary sieve analysis. This method predicted the dichotomous resistance outcome of whether the IC50 neutralization titer of VRC01 for a given Env pseudovirus is right-censored (indicating resistance) with an average validated AUC of 0.868 across the two hold-out datasets. Quantitative log IC50 was predicted with an average validated R2 of 0.355. Features predicting neutralization sensitivity or resistance included 26 surface-accessible residues in the VRC01 and CD4 binding footprints, the length of gp120, the length of Env, the number of cysteines in gp120, the number of cysteines in Env, and 4 potential N-linked glycosylation sites; the top features will be advanced to the primary sieve analysis. This modeling framework may also inform the study of VRC01 in the treatment of HIV-infected persons.

HAI and NAI titer correlates of inactivated and live attenuated influenza vaccine efficacy.

BACKGROUND: High hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) and neuraminidase inhibition (NAI) titers are generally associated with reduced influenza risk. While repeated influenza vaccination reduces seroresponse, vaccine effectiveness is not always reduced. METHODS: During the 2007-2008 influenza season, a randomized, placebo-controlled trial (FLUVACS) evaluated the efficacies of live-attenuated (LAIV) and inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV) among healthy adults aged 18-49 in Michigan; IIV vaccine efficacy (VE) and LAIV VE against influenza disease were estimated at 68% and 36%. Using the principal stratification/VE moderation framework, we analyzed data from this trial to assess how each VE varied by HAI or NAI responses to vaccination observed for vaccinated individuals and predicted counterfactually for placebo recipients. We also assessed how each VE varied with pre-vaccination/baseline variables including HAI titer, NAI titer, and vaccination history. RESULTS: IIV VE appeared to increase with Day 30 post-vaccination HAI titer, albeit not significantly (p=0.20 and estimated VE 14.4%, 70.5%, and 85.5% at titer below the assay lower quantification limit, 512, and 4096 (maximum)). Moreover, IIV VE increased significantly with Day 30 post-vaccination NAI titer (p=0.040), with estimated VE zero at titer 10 and 92.2% at highest titer 640. There was no evidence that fold-change in post-vaccination HAI or NAI titer associated with IIV VE (p=0.76, 0.38). For LAIV, there was no evidence that VE associated with post-vaccination or fold-rise HAI or NAI titers (p-values >0.40). For IIV, VE increased with increasing baseline NAI titer in those previously vaccinated, but VE decreased with increasing baseline NAI titer in those previously unvaccinated. In contrast, for LAIV, VE did not depend on previous vaccination or baseline HAI or NAI titer. CONCLUSIONS: Future efficacy trials should measure baseline and post-vaccination antibody titers in both vaccine and control/placebo recipients, enabling analyses to better elucidate correlates of vaccine- and natural-protection. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00538512. October 1, 2007.

Neutralizing Antibody Correlates Analysis of Tetravalent Dengue Vaccine Efficacy Trials in Asia and Latin America.

Background: In the CYD14 and CYD15 Phase 3 trials of the CYD-TDV dengue vaccine, estimated vaccine efficacy (VE) against symptomatic, virologically confirmed dengue (VCD) occurring between months 13 and 25 was 56.5% and 60.8%, respectively. Methods: Neutralizing antibody titers to the 4 dengue serotypes in the CYD-TDV vaccine insert were measured at month 13 in a randomly sampled immunogenicity subcohort and in all VCD cases through month 25 (2848 vaccine, 1574 placebo) and studied for their association with VCD and with the level of VE to prevent VCD. Results: For each trial and serotype, vaccinees with higher month 13 titer to the serotype had significantly lower risk of VCD with that serotype (hazard ratios, 0.19-0.43 per 10-fold increase). Moreover, for each trial, vaccinees with higher month 13 average titer to the 4 serotypes had significantly higher VE against VCD of any serotype (P < .001). Conclusions: Neutralizing antibody titers postdose 3 correlate with CYD-TDV VE to prevent dengue. High titers associate with high VE for all serotypes, baseline serostatus groups, age groups, and both trials. However, lowest titers do not fully correspond to zero VE, indicating that other factors influence VE.

Increased HIV-1 vaccine efficacy against viruses with genetic signatures in Env V2.

The RV144 trial demonstrated 31% vaccine efficacy at preventing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 infection. Antibodies against the HIV-1 envelope variable loops 1 and 2 (Env V1 and V2) correlated inversely with infection risk. We proposed that vaccine-induced immune responses against V1/V2 would have a selective effect against, or sieve, HIV-1 breakthrough viruses. A total of 936 HIV-1 genome sequences from 44 vaccine and 66 placebo recipients were examined. We show that vaccine-induced immune responses were associated with two signatures in V2 at amino acid positions 169 and 181. Vaccine efficacy against viruses matching the vaccine at position 169 was 48% (confidence interval 18% to 66%; P = 0.0036), whereas vaccine efficacy against viruses mismatching the vaccine at position 181 was 78% (confidence interval 35% to 93%; P = 0.0028). Residue 169 is in a cationic glycosylated region recognized by broadly neutralizing and RV144-derived antibodies. The predicted distance between the two signature sites (21 ± 7 Å) and their match/mismatch dichotomy indicate that multiple factors may be involved in the protection observed in RV144. Genetic signatures of RV144 vaccination in V2 complement the finding of an association between high V1/V2-binding antibodies and reduced risk of HIV-1 acquisition, and provide evidence that vaccine-induced V2 responses plausibly had a role in the partial protection conferred by the RV144 regimen.

Comprehensive sieve analysis of breakthrough HIV-1 sequences in the RV144 vaccine efficacy trial.

The RV144 clinical trial showed the partial efficacy of a vaccine regimen with an estimated vaccine efficacy (VE) of 31% for protecting low-risk Thai volunteers against acquisition of HIV-1. The impact of vaccine-induced immune responses can be investigated through sieve analysis of HIV-1 breakthrough infections (infected vaccine and placebo recipients). A V1/V2-targeted comparison of the genomes of HIV-1 breakthrough viruses identified two V2 amino acid sites that differed between the vaccine and placebo groups. Here we extended the V1/V2 analysis to the entire HIV-1 genome using an array of methods based on individual sites, k-mers and genes/proteins. We identified 56 amino acid sites or "signatures" and 119 k-mers that differed between the vaccine and placebo groups. Of those, 19 sites and 38 k-mers were located in the regions comprising the RV144 vaccine (Env-gp120, Gag, and Pro). The nine signature sites in Env-gp120 were significantly enriched for known antibody-associated sites (p = 0.0021). In particular, site 317 in the third variable loop (V3) overlapped with a hotspot of antibody recognition, and sites 369 and 424 were linked to CD4 binding site neutralization. The identified signature sites significantly covaried with other sites across the genome (mean = 32.1) more than did non-signature sites (mean = 0.9) (p < 0.0001), suggesting functional and/or structural relevance of the signature sites. Since signature sites were not preferentially restricted to the vaccine immunogens and because most of the associations were insignificant following correction for multiple testing, we predict that few of the genetic differences are strongly linked to the RV144 vaccine-induced immune pressure. In addition to presenting results of the first complete-genome analysis of the breakthrough infections in the RV144 trial, this work describes a set of statistical methods and tools applicable to analysis of breakthrough infection genomes in general vaccine efficacy trials for diverse pathogens.

Mark-specific hazard ratio model with missing multivariate marks.

An objective of randomized placebo-controlled preventive HIV vaccine efficacy (VE) trials is to assess the relationship between vaccine effects to prevent HIV acquisition and continuous genetic distances of the exposing HIVs to multiple HIV strains represented in the vaccine. The set of genetic distances, only observed in failures, is collectively termed the 'mark.' The objective has motivated a recent study of a multivariate mark-specific hazard ratio model in the competing risks failure time analysis framework. Marks of interest, however, are commonly subject to substantial missingness, largely due to rapid post-acquisition viral evolution. In this article, we investigate the mark-specific hazard ratio model with missing multivariate marks and develop two inferential procedures based on (i) inverse probability weighting (IPW) of the complete cases, and (ii) augmentation of the IPW estimating functions by leveraging auxiliary data predictive of the mark. Asymptotic properties and finite-sample performance of the inferential procedures are presented. This research also provides general inferential methods for semiparametric density ratio/biased sampling models with missing data. We apply the developed procedures to data from the HVTN 502 'Step' HIV VE trial.

Genotypic analysis of RTS,S/AS01E malaria vaccine efficacy against parasite infection as a function of dosage regimen and baseline malaria infection status in children aged 5-17 months in Ghana and Kenya: a longitudinal phase 2b randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The first licensed malaria vaccine, RTS,S/AS01E, confers moderate protection against symptomatic disease. Because many malaria infections are asymptomatic, we conducted a large-scale longitudinal parasite genotyping study of samples from a clinical trial exploring how vaccine dosing regimen affects vaccine efficacy. METHODS: Between Sept 28, 2017, and Sept 25, 2018, 1500 children aged 5-17 months were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1:1) to receive four different RTS,S/AS01E regimens or a rabies control vaccine in a phase 2b open-label clinical trial in Ghana and Kenya. Participants in the four RTS,S groups received two full doses at month 0 and month 1 and either full doses at month 2 and month 20 (group R012-20); full doses at month 2, month 14, month 26, and month 38 (group R012-14); fractional doses at month 2, month 14, month 26, and month 38 (group Fx012-14; early fourth dose); or fractional doses at month 7, month 20, and month 32 (group Fx017-20; delayed third dose). We evaluated the time to the first new genotypically detected infection and the total number of new infections during two follow-up periods (12 months and 20 months) in more than 36 000 dried blood spot specimens from 1500 participants. To study vaccine effects on time to the first new infection, we defined vaccine efficacy as one minus the hazard ratio (HR; RTS,S vs control) of the first new infection. We performed a post-hoc analysis of vaccine efficacy based on malaria infection status at first vaccination and force of infection by month 2. This trial (MAL-095) is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03281291. FINDINGS: We observed significant and similar vaccine efficacy (25-43%; 95% CI union 9-53) against first new infection for all four RTS,S/AS01E regimens across both follow-up periods (12 months and 20 months). Each RTS,S/AS01E regimen significantly reduced the mean number of new infections in the 20-month follow-up period by 1·1-1·6 infections (95% CI union 0·6-2·1). Vaccine efficacy against first new infection was significantly higher in participants who were infected with malaria (68%; 95% CI 50-80) than in those who were uninfected (37%; 23-48) at the first vaccination (p=0·0053). INTERPRETATION: All tested dosing regimens blocked some infections to a similar degree. Improved vaccine efficacy in participants infected during vaccination could suggest new strategies for highly efficacious malaria vaccine development and implementation. FUNDING: GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals SA, PATH, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research.

Quantifying how single dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy depends on Spike sequence features.

In the ENSEMBLE randomized, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial (NCT04505722), estimated single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy (VE) was 56% against moderate to severe-critical COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 Spike sequences were determined from 484 vaccine and 1,067 placebo recipients who acquired COVID-19. In this set of prespecified analyses, we show that in Latin America, VE was significantly lower against Lambda vs. Reference and against Lambda vs. non-Lambda [family-wise error rate (FWER) p < 0.05]. VE differed by residue match vs. mismatch to the vaccine-insert at 16 amino acid positions (4 FWER p < 0.05; 12 q-value ≤ 0.20); significantly decreased with physicochemical-weighted Hamming distance to the vaccine-strain sequence for Spike, receptor-binding domain, N-terminal domain, and S1 (FWER p < 0.001); differed (FWER ≤ 0.05) by distance to the vaccine strain measured by 9 antibody-epitope escape scores and 4 NTD neutralization-impacting features; and decreased (p = 0.011) with neutralization resistance level to vaccinee sera. VE against severe-critical COVID-19 was stable across most sequence features but lower against the most distant viruses.

Adults on pre-exposure prophylaxis (tenofovir-emtricitabine) have faster clearance of anti-HIV monoclonal antibody VRC01.

Broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) are being developed for HIV-1 prevention. Hence, these mAbs and licensed oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) (tenofovir-emtricitabine) can be concomitantly administered in clinical trials. In 48 US participants (men and transgender persons who have sex with men) who received the HIV-1 mAb VRC01 and remained HIV-free in an antibody-mediated-prevention trial (ClinicalTrials.gov #NCT02716675), we conduct a post-hoc analysis and find that VRC01 clearance is 0.08 L/day faster (p = 0.005), and dose-normalized area-under-the-curve of VRC01 serum concentration over-time is 0.29 day/mL lower (p < 0.001) in PrEP users (n = 24) vs. non-PrEP users (n = 24). Consequently, PrEP users are predicted to have 14% lower VRC01 neutralization-mediated prevention efficacy against circulating HIV-1 strains. VRC01 clearance is positively associated (r = 0.33, p = 0.03) with levels of serum intestinal Fatty Acid Binding protein (I-FABP), a marker of epithelial intestinal permeability, which is elevated upon starting PrEP (p = 0.04) and after months of self-reported use (p = 0.001). These findings have implications for the evaluation of future HIV-1 mAbs and postulate a potential mechanism for mAb clearance in the context of PrEP.

Quantifying how single dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy depends on Spike sequence features.

It is of interest to pinpoint SARS-CoV-2 sequence features defining vaccine resistance. In the ENSEMBLE randomized, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial, estimated single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy (VE) was 56% against moderate to severe-critical COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 Spike sequences were measured from 484 vaccine and 1,067 placebo recipients who acquired COVID-19 during the trial. In Latin America, where Spike diversity was greatest, VE was significantly lower against Lambda than against Reference and against all non-Lambda variants [family-wise error rate (FWER) p < 0.05]. VE also differed by residue match vs. mismatch to the vaccine-strain residue at 16 amino acid positions (4 FWER p < 0.05; 12 q-value ≤ 0.20). VE significantly decreased with physicochemical-weighted Hamming distance to the vaccine-strain sequence for Spike, receptor-binding domain, N-terminal domain, and S1 (FWER p < 0.001); differed (FWER ≤ 0.05) by distance to the vaccine strain measured by 9 different antibody-epitope escape scores and by 4 NTD neutralization-impacting features; and decreased (p = 0.011) with neutralization resistance level to vaccine recipient sera. VE against severe-critical COVID-19 was stable across most sequence features but lower against viruses with greatest distances. These results help map antigenic specificity of in vivo vaccine protection.

Efficacy of a bivalent (D614 + B.1.351) SARS-CoV-2 Protein Vaccine.

Background: COVID-19 vaccines with alternative strain compositions are needed to provide broad protection against newly emergent SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. Methods: We conducted a global Phase 3, multi-stage efficacy study (NCT04904549) among adults aged ≥18 years. Participants were randomized 1:1 to receive two intramuscular injections 21 days apart of a bivalent SARS-CoV-2 recombinant protein vaccine with AS03-adjuvant (5 µg of ancestral (D614) and 5 µg of B.1.351 [beta] variant spike protein) or placebo. Symptomatic COVID-19 was defined as laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 with COVID-19-like illness (CLI) symptoms. The primary efficacy endpoint was the prevention of symptomatic COVID-19 ≥14 days after the second injection (post-dose 2 [PD2]). Results: Between 19 Oct 2021 and 15 Feb 2022, 12,924 participants received ≥1 study injection. 75% of participants were SARS-CoV-2 non-naïve. 11,416 participants received both study injections (efficacy-evaluable population [vaccine, n=5,736; placebo, n=5,680]). Up to 15 March 2022, 121 symptomatic COVID-19 cases were reported (32 in the vaccine group and 89 in the placebo group) ≥14 days PD2 with a vaccine efficacy (VE) of 64.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 46.6; 77.2%). VE was 75.1% (95% CI 56.3; 86.6%) in non-naïve and 30.9% (95% CI -39.3; 66.7%) in naïve participants. Viral genome sequencing identified the infecting strain in 68 cases (Omicron [BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants]: 63; Delta: 4; Omicron and Delta: 1). The vaccine was well-tolerated and had an acceptable safety profile. Conclusions: A bivalent vaccine conferred heterologous protection against symptomatic infection with newly emergent Omicron (BA.1 and BA.2) in non-naïve adults 18-59 years of age.

Efficacy of a bivalent (D614 + B.1.351) SARS-CoV-2 recombinant protein vaccine with AS03 adjuvant in adults: a phase 3, parallel, randomised, modified double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 vaccines with alternative strain compositions are needed to provide broad protection against newly emergent SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. This study aimed to describe the clinical efficacy and safety of a bivalent SARS-CoV-2 recombinant protein vaccine as a two-injection primary series during a period of circulation of the omicron (B.1.1.529) variant. METHODS: We conducted a phase 3, parallel, randomised, modified double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in adults aged 18 years or older at 54 clinical research centres in eight countries (Colombia, Ghana, India, Kenya, Mexico, Nepal, Uganda, and Ukraine). Participants were recruited from the community and randomly assigned (1:1) by use of an interactive response technology system to receive two intramuscular 0·5 mL injections, 21 days apart, of the bivalent vaccine (5 µg of ancestral [D614] and 5 µg of beta [B.1.351] variant spike protein, with AS03 adjuvant) or placebo (0·9% normal saline). All participants, outcome assessors, and laboratory staff performing assays were masked to group assignments; those involved in the preparation and administration of the vaccines were unmasked. Participants were stratified by age (18-59 years and ≥60 years) and baseline SARS-CoV-2 rapid serodiagnostic test positivity. Symptomatic COVID-19 was defined as laboratory-confirmed (via nucleic acid amplification test or PCR test) COVID-19 with COVID-19-like illness symptoms. The primary efficacy endpoint was the clinical efficacy of the bivalent vaccine for prevention of symptomatic COVID-19 at least 14 days after the second injection (dose 2). Safety was assessed in all participants receiving at least one injection of the study vaccine or placebo. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04904549) and is closed to recruitment. FINDINGS: Between Oct 19, 2021, and Feb 15, 2022, 13 002 participants were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive the first dose of the study vaccine (n=6512) or placebo (n=6490). 12 924 participants (6472 in the vaccine group and 6452 in the placebo group) received at least one study injection, of whom 7542 (58·4%) were male and 9693 (75·0%) were SARS-CoV-2 non-naive. Of these 12 924 participants, 11 543 (89·3%) received both study injections (5788 in the vaccine group and 5755 in the placebo group). The efficacy-evaluable population after dose 2 comprised 11 416 participants (5736 in the vaccine group and 5680 in the placebo group). The median duration of follow-up was 85 days (IQR 50-95) after dose 1 and 58 days (29-70) after dose 2. 121 symptomatic COVID-19 cases were reported at least 14 days after dose 2 (32 in the vaccine group and 89 in the placebo group), with an overall vaccine efficacy of 64·7% (95% CI 46·6 to 77·2). Vaccine efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 was 75·1% (95% CI 56·3 to 86·6) in SARS-CoV-2 non-naive participants and 30·9% (-39·3 to 66·7) in SARS-CoV-2-naive participants. Viral genome sequencing identified the infecting strain in 68 (56·2%) of 121 cases (omicron [BA.1 and BA.2] in 63; delta in four; and both omicron and delta in one). Immediate unsolicited adverse events were reported by four (<0·1%) participants in the vaccine group and seven (0·1%) participants in the placebo group. Immediate unsolicited adverse reactions within 30 min after any injection were reported by four (<0·1%) participants in the vaccine group and six (<0·1%) participants in the placebo group. In the reactogenicity subset with available data, solicited reactions (solicited injection-site reactions and solicited systemic reactions) within 7 days after any injection occurred in 1398 (57·8%) of 2420 vaccine recipients and 983 (40·9%) of 2403 placebo recipients. Grade 3 solicited reactions were reported by 196 (8·1%; 95% CI 7·0 to 9·3) of 2420 vaccine recipients and 118 (4·9%; 4·1 to 5·9) of 2403 placebo recipients within 7 days after any injection, with comparable frequencies after dose 1 and dose 2 in the vaccine group. At least one serious adverse event occurred in 30 (0·5%) participants in the vaccine group and 26 (0·4%) in the placebo group. The proportion of adverse events of special interest and deaths was less than 0·1% in both study groups. No adverse event of special interest, serious adverse event, or death was deemed to be treatment related. There were no reported cases of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome, myocarditis, pericarditis, Bell's Palsy, or Guillain-Barré syndrome, or other immune-mediated diseases. INTERPRETATION: The bivalent variant vaccine conferred heterologous protection against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in the epidemiological context of the circulating contemporary omicron variant. These findings suggest that vaccines developed with an antigen from a non-predominant strain could confer cross-protection against newly emergent SARS-CoV-2 variants, although further investigation is warranted. FUNDING: Sanofi, US Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, and the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Baseline malaria infection status and RTS,S/AS01E malaria vaccine efficacy.

Background: The only licensed malaria vaccine, RTS,S/AS01 E , confers moderate protection against symptomatic disease. Because many malaria infections are asymptomatic, we conducted a large-scale longitudinal parasite genotyping study of samples from a clinical trial exploring how vaccine dosing regimen affects vaccine efficacy (VE). Methods: 1,500 children aged 5-17 months were randomized to receive four different RTS,S/AS01 E regimens or a rabies control vaccine in a phase 2b clinical trial in Ghana and Kenya. We evaluated the time to the first new genotypically detected infection and the total number of new infections during two follow-up periods in over 36K participant specimens. We performed a post hoc analysis of VE based on malaria infection status at first vaccination and force of infection. Results: We observed significant and comparable VE (25-43%, 95% CI union 9-53%) against first new infection for all four RTS,S/AS01 E regimens across both follow-up periods (12 and 20 months). Each RTS,S/AS01 E regimen significantly reduced the number of new infections in the 20-month follow-up period (control mean 4.1 vs. RTS,S/AS01 E mean 2.6-3.0). VE against first new infection was significantly higher in participants who were malaria-infected (68%; 95% CI, 50 to 80%) versus uninfected (37%; 95% CI, 23 to 48%) at the first vaccination (P=0.0053) and in participants experiencing greater force of infection between dose 1 and 3 (P=0.059). Conclusions: All tested dosing regimens blocked some infections to a similar degree. Improved VE in participants infected during vaccination could suggest new strategies for highly efficacious malaria vaccine development and implementation. ( ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03276962 ).