Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of malaria prevalence in children between 2 and 10 years of age in Gabon.

BACKGROUND: Gabon still bears significant malaria burden despite numerous efforts. To reduce this burden, policy-makers need strategies to design effective interventions. Besides, malaria distribution is well known to be related to the meteorological conditions. In Gabon, there is limited knowledge of the spatio-temporal effect or the environmental factors on this distribution. This study aimed to investigate on the spatio-temporal effects and environmental factors on the distribution of malaria prevalence among children 2-10 years of age in Gabon. METHODS: The study used cross-sectional data from the Demographic Health Survey (DHS) carried out in 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015. The malaria prevalence was obtained by considering the weighting scheme and using the space-time smoothing model. Spatial autocorrelation was inferred using the Moran's I index, and hotspots were identified with the local statistic Getis-Ord General Gi. For the effect of covariates on the prevalence, several spatial methods implemented in the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) approach using Stochastic Partial Differential Equations (SPDE) were compared. RESULTS: The study considered 336 clusters, with 153 (46%) in rural and 183 (54%) in urban areas. The prevalence was highest in the Estuaire province in 2000, reaching 46%. It decreased until 2010, exhibiting strong spatial correlation (P < 0.001), decreasing slowly with distance. Hotspots were identified in north-western and western Gabon. Using the Spatial Durbin Error Model (SDEM), the relationship between the prevalence and insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) coverage was decreasing after 20% of coverage. The prevalence in a cluster decreased significantly with the increase per percentage of ITNs coverage in the nearby clusters, and per degree Celsius of day land surface temperature in the same cluster. It slightly increased with the number of wet days and mean temperature per month in neighbouring clusters. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, this study showed evidence of strong spatial effect influencing malaria prevalence in household clusters. Increasing ITN coverage by 20% and prioritizing hotspots are essential policy recommendations. The effects of environmental factors should be considered, and collaboration with the national meteorological department (DGM) for early warning systems is needed.

Determinants and spatial factors of anemia in women of reproductive age in Democratic Republic of Congo (drc): a Bayesian multilevel ordinal logistic regression model approach.

BACKGROUND: As a global public health problem, anemia affects more than 400 million women of reproductive age worldwide, mostly in Africa and India. In the DRC, the prevalence of anemia has decreased slightly from 52.9% in 2007, to 46.4% in 2012 and 42.4% in 2019. However, there is considerable regional variation in its distribution. The aim of this study is to determine the factors contributing to anemia in women of reproductive age and to explore its spatial distribution in the DRC. METHODS: Based on the Bayesian Multilevel Spatial Ordinal Logistic Regression Model, we used the 2013 Democratic Republic of Congo Demographic and Health Survey (DHS-DRC II) data to investigate individual and environmental characteristics contributing to the development of anemia in women of reproductive age and the mapping of anemia in terms of residual spatial effects. RESULTS: Age, pregnancy status, body mass index, education level, current breastfeeding, current marital status, contraceptive and insecticide-treated net use, source of drinking water supply and toilet/latrine use including the province of residence were the factors contributing to anemia in women of reproductive age in DRC. With Global Moran's I = -0.00279, p-value ≥ 0.05, the spatial distribution of anemia in women of reproductive age in DRC results from random spatial processes. Thus, the observed spatial pattern is completely random. CONCLUSION: The Bayesian Multilevel Spatial Ordinal Logistic Regression statistical model is able to adjust for risk and spatial factors of anemia in women of reproductive age in DRC highlighting the combined role of individual and environmental factors in the development of anemia in DRC.

Do dietary practices and household environmental quality mediate socio-economic inequalities in child undernutrition risk in West Africa?

OBJECTIVE: We investigated the relationship between socio-economic status and child undernutrition in West Africa (WA), and further examined the mediating role of dietary practices (measured as minimum dietary diversity (MDD), minimum meal frequency (MMF) and minimum acceptable diet (MAD)) and household environmental quality (HEQ) in the observed relationship. DESIGN: Thirteen countries were included in the study. We leveraged the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys datasets ranging from 2010 to 2019. Poisson regression model with robust standard errors was used to estimate prevalence ratios and their corresponding 95 % CI. Structural equation modelling was used to conduct the mediation analysis. SETTING: West Africa. PARTICIPANTS: 132 448 under-five children born within 5 years preceding the survey were included. RESULTS: Overall, 32·5 %, 8·2 %, 20·1 % and 71·7 % of WA children were stunted, wasted, underweight and anaemic, respectively. Prevalence of undernutrition decreased with increasing maternal education and household wealth (Trend P-values < 0·001). Secondary or higher maternal education and residence in rich households were associated with statistically significant decrease in the prevalence of stunting, wasting, underweight and anaemia among children in WA. MAD was found to mediate the association of low maternal education and poor household wealth with childhood stunting and underweight by 35·9 % to 44·5 %. MDD, MMF and HEQ did not mediate the observed relationship. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings enables an evaluation and improvement of existing intervention strategies through a socio-economic lens to help address the high burden of child undernutrition in WA and other developing regions.

Acupuncture for treating overactive bladder in adults.

BACKGROUND: Overactive bladder is a common, long-term symptom complex, which includes frequency of micturition, urgency with or without associated incontinence and nocturia. Around 11% of the population have symptoms, with this figure increasing with age. Symptoms can be linked to social anxiety and adaptive behavioural change. The cost of treating overactive bladder is considerable, with current treatments varying in effectiveness and being associated with side effects. Acupuncture has been suggested as an alternative treatment. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of acupuncture for treating overactive bladder in adults, and to summarise the principal findings of relevant economic evaluations. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Incontinence Specialised Register, which contains trials identified from the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE (including In-Process, Epub Ahead of Print, Daily), ClinicalTrials.gov and WHO ICTRP (searched 14 May 2022). We also searched the Allied and Complementary Medicine database (AMED) and bibliographic databases where knowledge of the Chinese language was necessary: China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI); Chinese Science and Technology Periodical Database (VIP) and WANFANG (China Online Journals), as well as the reference lists of relevant articles.  SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs), quasi-RCTs and cross-over RCTs assessing the effects of acupuncture for treating overactive bladder in adults. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Four review authors formed pairs to assess study eligibility and extract data. Both pairs used Covidence software to perform screening and data extraction. We assessed risk of bias using Cochrane's risk of bias tool and assessed heterogeneity using the Chi2 testand I2 statistic generated within the meta-analyses. We used a fixed-effect model within the meta-analyses unless there was a moderate or high level of heterogeneity, where we employed a random-effects model. We used the GRADE approach to assess the certainty of evidence. MAIN RESULTS: We included 15 studies involving 1395 participants in this review (14 RCTs and one quasi-RCT). All included studies raised some concerns regarding risk of bias. Blinding of participants to treatment group was only achieved in 20% of studies, we considered blinding of outcome assessors and allocation concealment to be low risk in only 25% of the studies, and random sequence generation to be either unclear or high risk in more than 50% of the studies. Acupuncture versus no treatment One study compared acupuncture to no treatment. The evidence is very uncertain regarding the effect of acupuncture compared to no treatment in curing or improving overactive bladder symptoms and on the number of minor adverse events (both very low-certainty evidence). The study report explicitly stated that no major adverse events occurred. The study did not report on the presence or absence of urinary urgency, episodes of urinary incontinence, daytime urinary frequency or episodes of nocturia. Acupuncture versus sham acupuncture Five studies compared acupuncture with sham acupuncture. The evidence is very uncertain about the effect of acupuncture on curing or improving overactive bladder symptoms compared to sham acupuncture (standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.36, 95% confidence interval (CI) -1.03 to 0.31; 3 studies; 151 participants; I2 = 65%; very low-certainty evidence). All five studies explicitly stated that there were no major adverse events observed during the study. Moderate-certainty evidence suggests that acupuncture probably makes no difference to the incidence of minor adverse events compared to sham acupuncture (risk ratio (RR) 1.28, 95% CI 0.30 to 5.36; 4 studies; 222 participants; I² = 0%). Only one small study reported data for the presence or absence of urgency and for episodes of nocturia. The evidence is of very low certainty for both of these outcomes and in both cases the lower confidence interval is implausible. Moderate-certainty evidence suggests there is probably little or no difference in episodes of urinary incontinence between acupuncture and sham acupuncture (mean difference (MD) 0.55, 95% CI -1.51 to 2.60; 2 studies; 121 participants; I2 = 57%). Two studies recorded data regarding daytime urinary frequency but we could not combine them in a meta-analysis due to differences in methodologies (very low-certainty evidence). Acupuncture versus medication Eleven studies compared acupuncture with medication. Low-certainty evidence suggests that acupuncture may slightly increase how many people's overactive bladder symptoms are cured or improved compared to medication (RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.43; 5 studies; 258 participants; I2 = 19%). Low-certainty evidence suggests that acupuncture may reduce the incidence of minor adverse events when compared to medication (RR 0.34, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.45; 8 studies; 1004 participants; I² = 51%). The evidence is uncertain regarding the effect of acupuncture on the presence or absence of urinary urgency (MD -0.40, 95% CI -0.56 to -0.24; 2 studies; 80 participants; I2 = 0%; very low-certainty evidence) and episodes of urinary incontinence (MD -0.33, 95% CI -2.75 to 2.09; 1 study; 20 participants; very low-certainty evidence) compared to medication. Low-certainty evidence suggests there may be little to no effect of acupuncture compared to medication in terms of daytime urinary frequency (MD 0.73, 95% CI -0.39 to 1.85; 4 studies; 360 participants; I2 = 28%). Acupuncture may slightly reduce the number of nocturia episodes compared to medication (MD -0.50, 95% CI -0.65 to -0.36; 2 studies; 80 participants; I2 = 0%, low-certainty evidence). There were no incidences of major adverse events in any of the included studies. However, major adverse events are rare in acupuncture trials and the numbers included in this review may be insufficient to detect these events. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The evidence is very uncertain about the effect acupuncture has on cure or improvement of overactive bladder symptoms compared to no treatment. It is uncertain if there is any difference between acupuncture and sham acupuncture in cure or improvement of overactive bladder symptoms. This review provides low-certainty evidence that acupuncture may result in a slight increase in cure or improvement of overactive bladder symptoms when compared with medication and may reduce the incidence of minor adverse events. These conclusions must remain tentative until the completion of larger, higher-quality studies that use relevant, comparable outcomes. Timing and frequency of treatment, point selection, application and long-term follow-up are other areas relevant for research.

Secular trends in low birth weight and child undernutrition in West Africa: evidence from complex nationwide surveys, 1985-2019.

OBJECTIVE: We present prevalence estimates and secular trends of stunting, wasting, underweight, and anaemia among children under 5 years of age and low birth weight (LBW) over the period 1985-2019 in West Africa (WA). DESIGN: Analysis of Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) and World Bank data. DerSimonian-Laird random effect model with the Knapp-Hartung adjustment to the standard error was used to derive overall prevalence estimates. We used fixed effect ordinary least square regression models with cluster robust standard error to conduct time trends analyses. SETTING: West Africa. PARTICIPANTS: Children aged 0 to 59 months. RESULTS: Three distinct periods (1986-1990, 1993-1996 and 1997-2000) of sharp increases in prevalence of all outcomes was observed. After the year 2000, prevalence of all outcomes except LBW started to decline with some fluctuations. LBW prevalence showed a steady increase after 2000. We observed a decline in prevalence of stunting (ß = -0·20 %; 95 % CI -0·43 %, 0·03 %), log-wasting (ß = -0·02 %; 95 % CI -0·02 %, -0·01 %), log-underweight (ß = -0·02 %; 95 % CI -0·03 %, -0·01 %) anaemia (ß = -0·44; 95 % CI -0·55 %, -0·34 %), and an increase in LBW (ß = 0·06 %; 95 % CI -0·10 %, 0·22 %) in WA over the period. Pooled prevalence of stunting, wasting, underweight, anaemia and LBW in WA for the period 1985-2019 was 26·1 %, 16·4 %, 22·7 %, 76·2 % and 11·3 %, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Child undernutrition prevalence varied greatly between countries and the year cohorts. We observed marginal reductions in prevalence of all outcomes except anaemia where the reductions were quite striking and LBW where an increase was noted. There is the need for more rigorous and sustained targeted interventions in WA.

Trends in female genital mutilation/cutting in Senegal: what can we learn from successive household surveys in sub-Saharan African countries?

BACKGROUND: Over the last several decades, global efforts to end female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) have intensified through combined efforts of international and non-governmental organizations, governments, and religious and civil society groups. One question asked by donors, program implementers and observers alike is whether there is any evidence that FGM/C is declining. In the last two decades, reliable data have been generated in numerous countries through major household surveys, including repeat cross-sectional surveys. What can we learn from these data? We explore this question by analyzing data on FGM/C obtained from women aged 15-49 in two successive household surveys in Senegal (2005 and 2010-11). The aggregate national-level statistics suggest that there has been no significant change in the prevalence of FGM/C among adult women. These figures are, however, unadjusted for potentially confounding factors, and potentially mask important variation in the practice. This paper aims to provide a deeper understanding of trends in FGM/C across regions, and possibly across generations, providing evidence as to when and where the practice of FGM/C is changing. We aim to answer the following questions: 1. What are the trends in FGM/C among women across Senegal and within regions? 2. Are individual characteristics, such as education, wealth and ethnicity, associated with a likelihood of FGM/C? 3. Are community-level factors, captured by covariate-adjusted geographic estimates, important predictors of a likelihood of FGM/C, as predicted by social convention theory?4. After adjusting for individual- and community-level factors, do we see a decrease in the prevalence of FGM/C across generations of women in Senegal? METHODS: Participants were 14,602 and 14,228 respondents from two consecutive Senegal Demographic and Health Surveys from 2005 to 2010 (FGM/C prevalence 30.1% in 2005 and 28.1% in 2010). A Bayesian geo-additive mixed model based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques was used to map the change in the spatial distribution of FGM/C prevalence at the regional level during the five-year period, while simultaneously examining the effect of individual-level risk factors. RESULTS: Overall, the prevalence of FGM/C at that national level changed little over the 5-year period, but the fully-adjusted model and map of trends in residual spatial effects at the regional level reveal important spatial patterns. Across both survey periods, several high prevalence regions remained "hot spots," bearing a consistently high FGM/C prevalence. These include Kolda (along with the newly subdivided region of Sédhiou in 2010), Tambacounda (along with the newly subdivided region of Kédougou in 2010), and Matam. At the same time, risk remained not significant in the high prevalence regions of Saint Louis and Zinguinchor and was attenuated between 2005 and 2010-11 in Kaolack (including the newly subdivided region of Kaffrine in 2010), shifting from not significant risk in 2005 to a very low FGM/C prevalence in 2010-11. In both surveys, unadjusted estimates of the effect of age show no significant difference in risk of FGM across age cohorts. However, non-parametric covariate-adjusted estimates show that in both surveys age is a significant risk factor for FGM/C, although not in the anticipated direction. The effect of age on prevalence of FGM/C is highest in women aged 15-20, and declines with increasing age. Other significant factors are socio-demographic variables, particularly ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from two consecutive surveys reveal that while no significant changes in FGM/C prevalence are found at the national level, mixed changes are visible at the regional level, as well as at the individual level. The modelled covariate results confirmed that the patterns of FGM/C differ markedly with region of residence and age remaining significant risk factors in both surveys, suggesting that community factors (convention theory), above and beyond individual factors, play a crucial role in the perpetuation, spread or decline of the practice of FGM/C. There is a clear pattern of regions with higher prevalence of FGM/C, mostly the south-eastern region of Tambacounda, Kolda and Matam in 2005, including the eastern region of Kédougou and the southern region of Sédhiou in 2010, which were associated with a higher prevalence of FGM/C, while regions  such as Louga, Thiès, Diourbel, Kaolack and Fatick in 2005 and Louga, Thiès, Diourbel, Fatick, Kaolack and Kaffrine in 2010 were associated with a lower prevalence of FGM/C. However, the total spatial residuals in both surveys also indicate that much of the variation in FGM/C likelihood remains to be explained. The spatial effects of the Kaolack region in 2005 was greatly attenuated after multiple adjustments of other risk factors indicating that perhaps the higher number of FGM/C affected women living in the region was inflated by other factors such as ethnicity, socio-economic status and education. Overall, the results indicate that across surveys, certain high prevalence regions remain "hot spots" regarding FGM/C prevalence. These novel findings fit with predictions of theory on social norms and conventions which suggest that the practice is upheld by interdependent expectations regarding the practice, and when such expectations are challenged within a community, the possibility for abandonment is opened.

Private retail drug shops: what they are, how they operate, and implications for health care delivery in rural Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Retail drug shops play a significant role in managing pediatric fevers in rural areas in Uganda. Targeted interventions to improve drug seller practices require understanding of the retail drug shop market and motivations that influence practices. This study aimed at describing the operational environment in relation to the Uganda National Drug Authority guidelines for setup of drug shops; characteristics, and dispensing practices of private retail drug shops in managing febrile conditions among under-five children in rural western Uganda. METHODS: Cross sectional survey of 74 registered drug shops, observation checklist, and 428 exit interviews using a semi-structured questionnaire with care-seekers of children under five years of age, who sought care at drug shops during the survey period. The survey was conducted in Mbarara and Bushenyi districts, South Western Uganda, in May 2013. RESULTS: Up to 90 and 79% of surveyed drug shops in Mbarara and Bushenyi, largely operate in premises that meet National Drug Authority requirements for operational suitability and ensuring medicines safety and quality. Drug shop attendants had some health or medical related training with 60% in Mbarara and 59% in Bushenyi being nurses or midwives. The rest were clinical officers, pharmacists. The most commonly stocked medicines at drug shops were Paracetamol, Quinine, Cough syrup, ORS/Zinc, Amoxicillin syrup, Septrin® syrup, Artemisinin-based combination therapies, and multivitamins, among others. Decisions on what medicines to stock were influenced by among others: recommended medicines from Ministry of Health, consumer demand, most profitable medicines, and seasonal disease patterns. Dispensing decisions were influenced by: prescriptions presented by client, patients' finances, and patient preferences, among others. Most drug shops surveyed had clinical guidelines, iCCM guidelines, malaria and diarrhea treatment algorithms and charts as recommended by the Ministry of Health. Some drug shops offered additional services such as immunization and sold non-medical goods, as a mechanism for diversification. CONCLUSION: Most drug shops premises adhered to the recommended guidelines. Market factors, including client demand and preferences, pricing and profitability, and seasonality largely influenced dispensing and stocking practices. Improving retail drug shop practices and quality of services, requires designing and implementing both supply-side and demand side strategies.

HIV EPIDEMIC HETEROGENEITY IN ZIMBABWE: EVIDENCE FROM SUCCESSIVE DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS.

Zimbabwe has one of the worst HIV epidemics in the world. This study investigated data from two successive Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Surveys (ZDHS) conducted in 2005-06 and 2010-11. A random representative sample of 30,000 men aged 15-59 and women aged 15-49 was selected from the two surveys. The HIV prevalence was mapped with a flexible, coherent regression framework using a geo-additive semi-parametric mixed model. HIV indicator prevalence maps were constructed at the regional level, and at the administrative level relevant for policy design, planning and decision-making. Substantial regional variation was found, not only in the burden of HIV, but also in its risk factors. The results suggest that responses/policies should vary at the regional level to ensure that the often diverse needs of populations across a country are met and incorporated into planning the HIV response. The use of geographically referenced data in two successive ZDHS provides crucial new insights into the spatial characteristics of the HIV epidemic in Zimbabwe. In particular, it highlights the HIV heterogeneity across Zimbabwe, with substantial regional variation, not only in the burden of HIV, but also in its risk factors.

Childhood football play and practice in relation to self-regulation and national team selection; a study of Norwegian elite youth players.

Childhood sport participation is argued to be important to understand differences in self-regulation and performance level in adolescence. This study sought to investigate if football-specific activities in childhood (6-12 years of age) is related to self-regulatory skills and national under 14- and 15-team selection in Norwegian elite youth football. Data of practice histories and self-regulatory skills of 515 youth football players selected at Norwegian regional level were collected and further analysed using multilevel analyses. The results revealed that high self-regulated players were more likely to be selected for national initiatives, and increased their involvement in peer-led football practice and adult-led football practice during childhood, compared to players with lower levels of self-regulation. While national level players reported higher levels of peer-led football play in childhood, the interaction effect suggest that the regional level players increased their involvement in peer-led play during childhood compared to national level players. In conclusion, the findings indicate that childhood sport participation may contribute to later differences in self-regulation, and highlights the importance of childhood engagement in football-specific play and practice in the development of Norwegian youth football players.

Modelling the Ecological Comorbidity of Acute Respiratory Infection, Diarrhoea and Stunting among Children Under the Age of 5 Years in Somalia.

The aim of this study was to assess spatial co-occurrence of acute respiratory infections (ARI), diarrhoea and stunting among children of the age between 6 and 59 months in Somalia. Data were obtained from routine biannual nutrition surveys conducted by the Food and Agriculture Organization 2007-2010. A Bayesian hierarchical geostatistical shared component model was fitted to the residual spatial components of the three health conditions. Risk maps of the common spatial effects at 1×1 km resolution were derived. The empirical correlations of the enumeration area proportion were 0.37, 0.63 and 0.66 for ARI and stunting, diarrhoea and stunting and ARI and diarrhoea, respectively. Spatially, the posterior residual effects ranged 0.03-20.98, 0.16-6.37 and 0.08-9.66 for shared component between ARI and stunting, diarrhoea and stunting and ARI and diarrhoea, respectively. The analysis showed clearly that the spatial shared component between ARI, diarrhoea and stunting was higher in the southern part of the country. Interventions aimed at controlling and mitigating the adverse effects of these three childhood health conditions should focus on their common putative risk factors, particularly in the South in Somalia.

Factors That Predict Differences in Childhood Mortality in Nigerian Communities: A Prognostic Model.

OBJECTIVE: To identify predictors of variations of childhood mortality between Nigerian communities and to identify high-risk communities where childhood mortality was higher than expected. STUDY DESIGN: Secondary analysis of the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey data using prognostic univariable and multivariable mixed Poisson regression models. Likelihood ratio test, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, and variance inflation factor were used to evaluate the fitness of the final model. RESULTS: The final adjusted model revealed that communities with high rating of multiple childhood deprivation (relative risk 1.14, 95% CI 1.09-1.19) and maternal socioeconomic deprivation (relative risk 1.22, 95% CI 1.14-1.29) were associated significantly with the risk of childhood mortality. Communities with enhanced maternal hospital-based health-seeking behaviors and more advantageous environmental conditions had reduced risks of childhood mortality. Similarly, children living in communities with high ethnic diversity were significantly less likely to die before their fifth birthday (relative risk 0.96, 95% CI 0.94-0.97). About 64% of the observed heterogeneity in childhood mortality in these communities was explained by the final model. Eleven of the 896 communities had higher than expected childhood mortality rates during the study period. CONCLUSIONS: Of the 31 482 children included in this survey, 2886 had died before their fifth birthday (128 deaths per 1000 live births). There are variations in childhood mortality across Nigerian communities that are not determined only by health system functions but also by factors beyond the scope of health authorities and healthcare delivery systems.

Environmental predictors of stunting among children under-five in Somalia: cross-sectional studies from 2007 to 2010.

BACKGROUND: Stunting among children under five years old is associated with long-term effects on cognitive development, school achievement, economic productivity in adulthood and maternal reproductive outcomes. Accurate estimation of stunting and tools to forecast risk are key to planning interventions. We estimated the prevalence and distribution of stunting among children under five years in Somalia from 2007 to 2010 and explored the role of environmental covariates in its forecasting. METHODS: Data from household nutritional surveys in Somalia from 2007 to 2010 with a total of 1,066 clusters covering 73,778 children were included. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical space-time model to forecast stunting by using the relationship between observed stunting and environmental covariates in the preceding years. We then applied the model coefficients to environmental covariates in subsequent years. To determine the accuracy of the forecasting, we compared this model with a model that used data from all the years with the corresponding environmental covariates. RESULTS: Rainfall (OR = 0.994, 95 % Credible interval (CrI): 0.993, 0.995) and vegetation cover (OR = 0.719, 95 % CrI: 0.603, 0.858) were significant in forecasting stunting. The difference in estimates of stunting using the two approaches was less than 3 % in all the regions for all forecast years. CONCLUSION: Stunting in Somalia is spatially and temporally heterogeneous. Rainfall and vegetation are major drivers of these variations. The use of environmental covariates for forecasting of stunting is a potentially useful and affordable tool for planning interventions to reduce the high burden of malnutrition in Somalia.

THE DUAL BURDEN OF NUTRITION TRANSITION AMONG WOMEN IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: A CASE STUDY OF UNDERWEIGHT IN NIGERIA.

In sub-Saharan Africa, nutrition research has primarily focused on under-nutrition, particularly among vulnerable children. However, there is increasing evidence of an emerging nutrition transition with extremely high rates of obesity, and malnutrition in women may be a problem that is insufficiently recognized and inadequately documented. This analysis was based on the 2008 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS), which included 27,967 women aged 15-49 years. Individual-level data were collected for socio-demographic characteristics and aggregated to the country's 37 states. A Bayesian geo-additive mixed model was used to map the geographic distribution of under-nutrition at the state level, accounting for individual-level risk factors. The results reveal that 12.0% of the population were underweight, while 20.9% were either overweight or obese, based on BMI. The northern states of Sokoto and Yobe/Borno and the southern state of Delta had the highest prevalence of underweight, while states in the centre had the lowest underweight prevalence. Underweight women were more likely to be from poorer households compared with their counterparts from the richest wealth index, which were consistently associated with lower odds of being underweight (posterior odds ratio (POR) and 95% credible region (CR): 0.56 [0.46, 0.70]). On the other hand Muslim women (1.61 [1.10, 2.23]), those of traditional religion (2.12 [1.44, 3.00]), those from the Fulani ethnic group (2.90 [1.64, 5.55]) and those living in Yobe state were all consistently associated with higher odds of being underweight. This study demonstrates that underweight is a major public health problem in Nigeria affecting adult females in the northern states of Nigeria. Identifying risk factors and the need to account for sex, spatial and socio-cultural issues are crucial to develop and implement evidence-informed strategies and interventions for lifestyle health promotion.

Socioeconomic gradients and mental health: implications for public health.

BACKGROUND: Research on mental well-being is relatively new and studies of its determinants are rare. AIMS: To investigate whether the socioeconomic correlates of mental well-being mirror those for mental illness. METHOD: Using logistic regression analyses, the independent odds ratios of high and low mental well-being, compared with middle-range mental well-being, were estimated for a number of sociodemographic variables known to be associated with mental illness from 13 983 participants in the 2010 and 2011 Health Surveys for England. RESULTS: Independent odds ratios for low mental well-being were as expected from studies of mental illness with increased odds for the unemployed (OR = 1.46, 95% CI 1.01-2.10) and those aged 35-54 years (OR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.35-1.84) and reduced odds for the married (OR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.62-0.97). A linear trend was observed with education and equivalised income. Odds ratios for high mental well-being differed from those for low mental well-being with regard to age (55+ years: OR = 1.48, 95% CI 1.23-1.79); employment status where there was an association only with retirement (OR = 1.35, 95% CI 1.09-1.69); education where there was no association; and equivalised income for which the association was non-linear. CONCLUSIONS: Odds ratios for low mental well-being mirrored those for mental illness, but not those for high mental well-being, suggesting that the socioeconomic factors associated with positive mental health are different from those associated with mental illness.

Predictors of the risk of malnutrition among children under the age of 5 years in Somalia.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the predictors of wasting, stunting and low mid-upper arm circumference among children aged 6-59 months in Somalia using data from household cross-sectional surveys from 2007 to 2010 in order to help inform better targeting of nutritional interventions. DESIGN: Cross-sectional nutritional assessment surveys using structured interviews were conducted among communities in Somalia each year from 2007 to 2010. A two-stage cluster sampling methodology was used to select children aged 6-59 months from households across three livelihood zones (pastoral, agro-pastoral and riverine). Predictors of three anthropometric measures, weight-for-height (wasting), height-for-age (stunting) and mid-upper arm circumference, were analysed using Bayesian binomial regression, controlling for both spatial and temporal dependence in the data. SETTING: The study was conducted in randomly sampled villages, representative of three livelihood zones in Somalia. SUBJECTS: Children between the ages of 6 and 59 months in Somalia. RESULTS: The estimated national prevalence of wasting, stunting and low mid-upper arm circumference in children aged 6-59 months was 21 %, 31 % and 36 %, respectively. Although fever, diarrhoea, sex and age of the child, household size and access to foods were significant predictors of malnutrition, the strongest association was observed between all three indicators of malnutrition and the enhanced vegetation index. A 1-unit increase in enhanced vegetation index was associated with a 38 %, 49 % and 59 % reduction in wasting, stunting and low mid-upper arm circumference, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Infection and climatic variations are likely to be key drivers of malnutrition in Somalia. Better health data and close monitoring and forecasting of droughts may provide valuable information for nutritional intervention planning in Somalia.

Household food (in)security and nutritional status of urban poor children aged 6 to 23 months in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Millions of people in low and low middle income countries suffer from extreme hunger and malnutrition. Research on the effect of food insecurity on child nutrition is concentrated in high income settings and has produced mixed results. Moreover, the existing evidence on food security and nutrition in children in low and middle income countries is either cross-sectional and/or is based primarily on rural populations. In this paper, we examine the effect of household food security status and its interaction with household wealth status on stunting among children aged between 6 and 23 months in resource-poor urban setting in Kenya. METHODS: We use longitudinal data collected between 2006 and 2012 from two informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya. Mothers and their new-borns were recruited into the study at birth and followed prospectively. The analytical sample comprised 6858 children from 6552 households. Household food security was measured as a latent variable derived from a set of questions capturing the main domains of access, availability and affordability. A composite measure of wealth was calculated using asset ownership and amenities. Nutritional status was measured using Height-for-Age (HFA) z-scores. Children whose HFA z-scores were below -2 standard deviation were categorized as stunted. We used Cox regression to analyse the data. RESULTS: The prevalence of stunting was 49 %. The risk of stunting increased by 12 % among children from food insecure households. When the joint effect of food security and wealth status was assessed, the risk of stunting increased significantly by 19 and 22 % among children from moderately food insecure and severely food insecure households and ranked in the middle poor wealth status. Among the poorest and least poor households, food security was not statistically associated with stunting. CONCLUSION: Our results shed light on the joint effect of food security and wealth status on stunting. Study findings underscore the need for social protection policies to reduce the high rates of child malnutrition in the urban informal settlements.

Disparities in modern contraception use among women in the Democratic Republic of Congo: a cross-sectional spatial analysis of provincial variations based on household survey data.

This study investigates inequalities at the province level of the use of modern contraception and the proportion of short birth intervals among women in the DRC using data from the 2007 Demographic and Health Survey. Logistic regression and Bayesian geo-additive models were used. The posterior odds ratio and the associated 95% credible interval (95% CI) were estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. Posterior spatial effects were mapped at the province level with the associated posterior probability maps showing statistical significance at 5%. The overall rates of modern contraception use among the entire sample of women (15-49 years old; N = 7172) and youth (15-24 years old; N = 1389) were 5.7% and 6.0% respectively. However, there was striking variation in contraceptive use between the two groups across provinces with a clear east-to-west gradient. The highest use in the total sample was in Nord-Kivu (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.12, 1.55) and Bas Congo provinces (1.47; 1.22, 1.78). For the youth, the highest use was observed in Nord-Kivu (1.19; 0.92, 1.65). In multivariate Bayesian geo-additive regression analyses among the entire sample of women, factors consistently associated with lower use of modern contraception were living in rural areas (0.71; 0.62, 0.82), living in low-income households (0.67; 0.54, 0.80) and having no education (0.83; 0.67, 0.97). For the youth sample, living in low-income households (0.57; 0.41, 0.84) and no breast-feeding (0.64; 0.47, 0.86) were consistently associated with a lower use of modern contraception. The study shows a distinct geographic pattern in the use of modern contraception in youth and the entire sample of women in the DRC, suggesting a potential role for socioeconomic factors, such as accessibility, affordability and availability, as well as environmental factors at the province level beyond individual-level risk factors.

An exploratory spatial analysis of geographical inequalities of birth intervals among young women in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC): a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The length of time between two successive live births (birth interval), is associated with child survival in the developing world. Short birth intervals (<24 months) contribute to infant and child mortality risks. Contraceptive use contributes to a reduction in short birth intervals, but evidence is lacking in the DRC. We aimed to investigate the proportion of short birth intervals at the provincial level among young women in the DRC. METHODS: Data from the Demographic and Health Survey undertaken in the DRC in 2007 were analyzed. Logistic regression and Bayesian geo-additive models were used to explain provincial inequalities in short birth intervals among women of reproductive age and young women. Posterior odds ratio (OR) and 95% credible region (CR) were estimated via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. Posterior spatial effects and the associated posterior probability maps were produced at the provincial-level to highlight provinces with a significant higher risk of short birth interval. RESULTS: The overall proportion of short birth intervals among all women of reproductive age (15-49 years) and young women (15-24 years) were 30.2% and 38.7% respectively. In multivariate Bayesian geo-additive regression analyses, among the whole sample of women, living in rural areas [OR = 1.07, 95% CR: (0.97, 1.17)], exclusive breastfeeding [1.08 (1.00, 1.17)] and women with primary education [1.06 (1.00, 1.16)], were consistently associated with a higher risk of short birth intervals. For the young women, none of the factors considered were associated with the risk of short birth interval except a marginal effect from the lack of education. There was a spatial variation in the proportion of women reporting short birth intervals and among all women of reproductive age across provinces, with Nord-Kivu [1.12 (1.02, 1.24)], Sud Kivu [1.17 (1.05, 1.29)] and Kasai Occidental [1.18 (1.06, 1.32)] reporting a higher risk of short birth intervals. For young women, the higher risk provinces were Nord-Kivu [1.22 (1.00, 1.54)] and Sud Kivu [1.34 (1.14, 1.63)]. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests distinct geographic patterns in the proportion of short birth intervals among Congolese women, as well as the potential role of demographic and geographic location factors driving the ongoing higher youth fertility, higher childhood and maternal mortality in the DRC.

Child mortality in the Democratic Republic of Congo: cross-sectional evidence of the effect of geographic location and prolonged conflict from a national household survey.

BACKGROUND: The child mortality rate is a good indicator of development. High levels of infectious diseases and high child mortality make the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) one of the most challenging environments for health development in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Recent conflicts in the eastern part of the country and bad governance have compounded the problem. This study aimed to examine province-level geographic variation in under-five mortality (U5M), accounting for individual- and household-level risk factors including environmental factors such as conflict. METHODS: Our analysis used the nationally representative cross-sectional household sample of 8,992 children under five in the 2007 DRC Demographic and Health Survey. In the survey year, 1,005 deaths among this group were observed. Information on U5M was aggregated to the 11 provinces, and a Bayesian geo-additive discrete-time survival mixed model was used to map the geographic distribution of under-five mortality rates (U5MRs) at the province level, accounting for observable and unobservable risk factors. RESULTS: The overall U5MR was 159 per 1,000 live births. Significant associations with risk of U5M were found for <24 month birth interval [posterior odds ratio and 95% credible region: 1.14 (1.04, 1.26)], home birth [1.13 (1.01, 1.27)] and living with a single mother [1.16 (1.03, 1.33)]. Striking variation was also noted in the risk of U5M by province of residence, with the highest risk in Kasaï-Oriental, a non-conflict area of the DRC, and the lowest in the conflict area of North Kivu. CONCLUSION: This study reveals clear geographic patterns in rates of U5M in the DRC and shows the potential role of individual child, household and environmental factors, which are unexplained by the ongoing conflict. The displacement of mothers to safer areas may explain the lower U5MR observed at the epicentre of the conflict in North Kivu, compared with rates in conflict-free areas. Overall, the U5M maps point to a lack of progress towards the Millennium Development Goal of reducing U5M by half by 2015.

Predictors of Multimorbidity (Defined as Diabetes + Hypertension) Amongst Males Aged 15-54 in India: An Urban/Rural Split Analysis.

Objectives: This study aimed to determine which sociodemographic and lifestyle factors may act as predictors of multimorbidity (defined as diabetes + hypertension) amongst men aged 15-54 within urban and rural areas of India. Methods: Data from the latest 2019-2021 India NFHS-5 survey were utilized. Presumed cases of multimorbidity were defined as men who had DM + HTN. A total of 22,411 men in urban areas and 66,768 rural men were analyzed using mixed-effect multi-level binary logistic regression models. Results: Various predictors were found to have a statistically significant association to multimorbidity. Urban areas: Age, region of residence, wealth, religion, occupation, and BMI. Rural areas: Age, education, region of residence, wealth, occupation, caste, BMI, alcohol consumption, media exposure, and tobacco consumption. Conclusion: Departing from the broad operational definitions often studied within literature, this study provided insight into one of the most prevalent specific multimorbidities across India. The urban/rural split analyses revealed substantial differences in high-risk characteristics across both areas, which have commonly been overlooked. These findings may better inform policymakers and assist in effectively reducing multimorbidity-related burden through area-specific preventative programs.