Genetic drivers of heterogeneity in type 2 diabetes pathophysiology.

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a heterogeneous disease that develops through diverse pathophysiological processes1,2 and molecular mechanisms that are often specific to cell type3,4. Here, to characterize the genetic contribution to these processes across ancestry groups, we aggregate genome-wide association study data from 2,535,601 individuals (39.7% not of European ancestry), including 428,452 cases of T2D. We identify 1,289 independent association signals at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8) that map to 611 loci, of which 145 loci are, to our knowledge, previously unreported. We define eight non-overlapping clusters of T2D signals that are characterized by distinct profiles of cardiometabolic trait associations. These clusters are differentially enriched for cell-type-specific regions of open chromatin, including pancreatic islets, adipocytes, endothelial cells and enteroendocrine cells. We build cluster-specific partitioned polygenic scores5 in a further 279,552 individuals of diverse ancestry, including 30,288 cases of T2D, and test their association with T2D-related vascular outcomes. Cluster-specific partitioned polygenic scores are associated with coronary artery disease, peripheral artery disease and end-stage diabetic nephropathy across ancestry groups, highlighting the importance of obesity-related processes in the development of vascular outcomes. Our findings show the value of integrating multi-ancestry genome-wide association study data with single-cell epigenomics to disentangle the aetiological heterogeneity that drives the development and progression of T2D. This might offer a route to optimize global access to genetically informed diabetes care.

Evaluation of polygenic scoring methods in five biobanks shows larger variation between biobanks than methods and finds benefits of ensemble learning.

Methods of estimating polygenic scores (PGSs) from genome-wide association studies are increasingly utilized. However, independent method evaluation is lacking, and method comparisons are often limited. Here, we evaluate polygenic scores derived via seven methods in five biobank studies (totaling about 1.2 million participants) across 16 diseases and quantitative traits, building on a reference-standardized framework. We conducted meta-analyses to quantify the effects of method choice, hyperparameter tuning, method ensembling, and the target biobank on PGS performance. We found that no single method consistently outperformed all others. PGS effect sizes were more variable between biobanks than between methods within biobanks when methods were well tuned. Differences between methods were largest for the two investigated autoimmune diseases, seropositive rheumatoid arthritis and type 1 diabetes. For most methods, cross-validation was more reliable for tuning hyperparameters than automatic tuning (without the use of target data). For a given target phenotype, elastic net models combining PGS across methods (ensemble PGS) tuned in the UK Biobank provided consistent, high, and cross-biobank transferable performance, increasing PGS effect sizes (ß coefficients) by a median of 5.0% relative to LDpred2 and MegaPRS (the two best-performing single methods when tuned with cross-validation). Our interactively browsable online-results and open-source workflow prspipe provide a rich resource and reference for the analysis of polygenic scoring methods across biobanks.

Multi-Ancestry Polygenic Risk Score for Coronary Heart Disease Based on an Ancestrally Diverse Genome-Wide Association Study and Population-Specific Optimization.

BACKGROUND: Predictive performance of polygenic risk scores (PRS) varies across populations. To facilitate equitable clinical use, we developed PRS for coronary heart disease (CHD; PRSCHD) for 5 genetic ancestry groups. METHODS: We derived ancestry-specific and multi-ancestry PRSCHD based on pruning and thresholding (PRSPT) and ancestry-based continuous shrinkage priors (PRSCSx) applied to summary statistics from the largest multi-ancestry genome-wide association study meta-analysis for CHD to date, including 1.1 million participants from 5 major genetic ancestry groups. Following training and optimization in the Million Veteran Program, we evaluated the best-performing PRSCHD in 176,988 individuals across 9 diverse cohorts. RESULTS: Multi-ancestry PRSPT and PRSCSx outperformed ancestry-specific PRSPT and PRSCSx across a range of tuning values. Two best-performing multi-ancestry PRSCHD (ie, PRSPTmult and PRSCSxmult) and 1 ancestry-specific (PRSCSxEUR) were taken forward for validation. PRSPTmult demonstrated the strongest association with CHD in individuals of South Asian ancestry and European ancestry (odds ratio per 1 SD [95% CI, 2.75 [2.41-3.14], 1.65 [1.59-1.72]), followed by East Asian ancestry (1.56 [1.50-1.61]), Hispanic/Latino ancestry (1.38 [1.24-1.54]), and African ancestry (1.16 [1.11-1.21]). PRSCSxmult showed the strongest associations in South Asian ancestry (2.67 [2.38-3.00]) and European ancestry (1.65 [1.59-1.71]), lower in East Asian ancestry (1.59 [1.54-1.64]), Hispanic/Latino ancestry (1.51 [1.35-1.69]), and the lowest in African ancestry (1.20 [1.15-1.26]). CONCLUSIONS: The use of summary statistics from a large multi-ancestry genome-wide meta-analysis improved the performance of PRSCHD in most ancestry groups compared with single-ancestry methods. Despite the use of one of the largest and most diverse sets of training and validation cohorts to date, improvement of predictive performance was limited in African ancestry. This highlights the need for larger genome-wide association study datasets of underrepresented populations to enhance the performance of PRSCHD.

A unified framework for estimating country-specific cumulative incidence for 18 diseases stratified by polygenic risk.

Polygenic scores (PGSs) offer the ability to predict genetic risk for complex diseases across the life course; a key benefit over short-term prediction models. To produce risk estimates relevant to clinical and public health decision-making, it is important to account for varying effects due to age and sex. Here, we develop a novel framework to estimate country-, age-, and sex-specific estimates of cumulative incidence stratified by PGS for 18 high-burden diseases. We integrate PGS associations from seven studies in four countries (N = 1,197,129) with disease incidences from the Global Burden of Disease. PGS has a significant sex-specific effect for asthma, hip osteoarthritis, gout, coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes (T2D), with all but T2D exhibiting a larger effect in men. PGS has a larger effect in younger individuals for 13 diseases, with effects decreasing linearly with age. We show for breast cancer that, relative to individuals in the bottom 20% of polygenic risk, the top 5% attain an absolute risk for screening eligibility 16.3 years earlier. Our framework increases the generalizability of results from biobank studies and the accuracy of absolute risk estimates by appropriately accounting for age- and sex-specific PGS effects. Our results highlight the potential of PGS as a screening tool which may assist in the early prevention of common diseases.