Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease: Update and impact of new nomenclature on the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases practice guidance on nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

This commentary discusses how clinicians and various stakeholders can utilize the recently published American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (AASLD NAFLD) Practice Guidance in light of the change in the nomenclature to steatotic liver disease and its subcategories. The new terminologies explained in this commentary make it easier for the readers to interchangeably use metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) in place of NAFLD and metabolic-dysfunction associated steatohepatitis (MASH) instead of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), respectively, as they read the NAFLD Practice Guidance. The guidance document is relevant and can be utilized for the diagnosis, risk stratification, and management of patients with MASLD. This commentary serves as an accompanying article to the NAFLD Practice Guidance and helps it clinical application in the light of the new nomenclature.

HES V2.0 outperforms GALAD for detection of HCC: A phase 3 biomarker study in the United States.

BACKGROUND: The original hepatocellular carcinoma early detection screening (HES) score, which combines alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) with age, alanine aminotransferase, and platelets, has better performance than AFP alone for early HCC detection. We have developed HES V2.0 by adding AFP-L3 and des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin to the score and compared its performance to GALAD and ASAP scores among patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: We conducted a prospective-specimen collection, retrospective-blinded-evaluation phase 3 biomarker cohort study in patients with cirrhosis enrolled in imaging and AFP surveillance. True-positive rate (TPR)/sensitivity and false-positive rate for any or early HCC were calculated for GALAD, ASAP, and HES V2.0 scores within 6, 12, and 24 months of HCC diagnosis. We calculated the AUROC curve and estimated TPR based on an optimal threshold at a fixed false-positive rate of 10%. RESULTS: We analyzed 2331 patients, of whom 125 developed HCC (71% in the early stages). For any HCC, HES V2.0 had higher TPR than GALAD overall (+7.2%), at 6 months (+3.6%), at 12 months (+7.2%), and 24 months (+13.0%) before HCC diagnosis. HES V2.0 had higher TPR than ASAP for all time points (+5.9% to +12.0%). For early HCC, HES V2.0 had higher sensitivity/TPR than GALAD overall (+6.7%), at 12 months (+6.3%), and 24 months (+14.6%) but not at 6 months (+0.0%) and higher than ASAP for all time points (+13.4% to +18.0%). CONCLUSIONS: In a prospective cohort study, HES V2.0 had a significantly higher performance for identifying new HCC, including early stage, than GALAD or ASAP.

Quality measures in pre-liver transplant care by the Practice Metrics Committee of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

The liver transplantation (LT) evaluation and waitlisting process is subject to variations in care that can impede quality. The American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) Practice Metrics Committee (PMC) developed quality measures and patient-reported experience measures along the continuum of pre-LT care to reduce care variation and guide patient-centered care. Following a systematic literature review, candidate pre-LT measures were grouped into 4 phases of care: referral, evaluation and waitlisting, waitlist management, and organ acceptance. A modified Delphi panel with content expertise in hepatology, transplant surgery, psychiatry, transplant infectious disease, palliative care, and social work selected the final set. Candidate patient-reported experience measures spanned domains of cognitive health, emotional health, social well-being, and understanding the LT process. Of the 71 candidate measures, 41 were selected: 9 for referral; 20 for evaluation and waitlisting; 7 for waitlist management; and 5 for organ acceptance. A total of 14 were related to structure, 17 were process measures, and 10 were outcome measures that focused on elements not typically measured in routine care. Among the patient-reported experience measures, candidates of LT rated items from understanding the LT process domain as the most important. The proposed pre-LT measures provide a framework for quality improvement and care standardization among candidates of LT. Select measures apply to various stakeholders such as referring practitioners in the community and LT centers. Clinically meaningful measures that are distinct from those used for regulatory transplant reporting may facilitate local quality improvement initiatives to improve access and quality of care.

Serum biomarker signature is predictive of the risk of hepatocellular cancer in patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Inflammatory and metabolic biomarkers have been associated with hepatocellular cancer (HCC) risk in phases I and II biomarker studies. We developed and internally validated a robust metabolic biomarker panel predictive of HCC in a longitudinal phase III study. METHODS: We used data and banked serum from a prospective cohort of 2266 adult patients with cirrhosis who were followed until the development of HCC (n=126). We custom designed a FirePlex immunoassay to measure baseline serum levels of 39 biomarkers and established a set of biomarkers with the highest discriminatory ability for HCC. We performed bootstrapping to evaluate the predictive performance using C-index and time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). We quantified the incremental predictive value of the biomarker panel when added to previously validated clinical models. RESULTS: We identified a nine-biomarker panel (P9) with a C-index of 0.67 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.67), including insulin growth factor-1, interleukin-10, transforming growth factor ß1, adipsin, fetuin-A, interleukin-1 ß, macrophage stimulating protein α chain, serum amyloid A and TNF-α. Adding P9 to our clinical model with 10 factors including AFP improved AUROC at 1 and 2 years by 4.8% and 2.7%, respectively. Adding P9 to aMAP score improved AUROC at 1 and 2 years by 14.2% and 7.6%, respectively. Adding AFP L-3 or DCP did not change the predictive ability of the P9 model. CONCLUSIONS: We identified a panel of nine serum biomarkers that is independently associated with developing HCC in cirrhosis and that improved the predictive ability of risk stratification models containing clinical factors.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Incidence Threshold for Surveillance in Virologically Cured Hepatitis C Individuals.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Guidelines recommend biannual surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in hepatitis C individuals with cirrhosis if the HCC incidence rate is above 1.5 per 100 person-years (PY). However, the incidence threshold for surveillance in individuals who achieve a virologic cure is unknown. We estimated the HCC incidence rate above which routine HCC surveillance is cost-effective in this growing population of virologically cured hepatitis C individuals with cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis. METHODS: We developed a Markov-based microsimulation model of the natural history of HCC in individuals with hepatitis C who achieved virologic cure with oral direct-acting antivirals. We used published data on the natural history of hepatitis C, competing risk post virologic cure, HCC tumor progression, real-world HCC surveillance adherence, contemporary HCC treatment options and associated costs, and utilities of different health states. We estimated the HCC incidence above which biannual HCC surveillance using ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein would be cost-effective. RESULTS: In virologically cured hepatitis C individuals with cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis, HCC surveillance is cost-effective if HCC incidence exceeds 0.7 per 100 PY using $100,000 per quality-adjusted life year willingness-to-pay. At this HCC incidence, routine HCC surveillance would result in 2650 and 5700 additional life years per 100,000 cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis persons, respectively, compared with no surveillance. At $150,000 willingness-to-pay, surveillance is cost-effective if HCC incidence exceeds 0.4 per 100 PY. Sensitivity analysis showed that the threshold mostly remained below 1.5 per 100 PY. CONCLUSIONS: The contemporary HCC incidence threshold is much lower than the previous 1.5% incidence value used to guide HCC surveillance decisions. Updating clinical guidelines could improve the early diagnosis of HCC.

PNPLA3, Obesity, and Heavy Alcohol Use in Cirrhosis Patients May Exert a Synergistic Increase Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In patients with cirrhosis, continued heavy alcohol consumption and obesity may increase risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We examined whether germline susceptibility to hepatic steatosis not only independently predisposes to HCC but may also act synergistically with other risk factors. METHODS: We analyzed data from 1911 patients in 2 multicenter prospective cohort studies in the United States. We classified patients according to alcohol consumption (current heavy vs not current heavy), obesity (body mass index ≥30 vs <30 kg/m2), and PNPLA3 I148M variant status (carrier of at least one G risk allele vs noncarrier). We examined the independent and joint effects of these risk factors on risk of developing HCC using Cox regression with competing risks. RESULTS: Mean age was 59.6 years, 64.3% were male, 28.7% were Hispanic, 18.3% were non-Hispanic Black, 50.9% were obese, 6.2% had current heavy alcohol consumption, and 58.4% harbored at least 1 PNPLA3 G-allele. One hundred sixteen patients developed HCC. Compared with PNPLA3 noncarriers without heavy alcohol consumption, HCC risk was 2.65-fold higher (hazard ratio [HR], 2.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.20-5.86) for carriers who had current heavy alcohol consumption. Compared with noncarrier patients without obesity, HCC risk was higher (HR, 2.40; 95% CI, 1.33-4.31) for carrier patients who were obese. PNPLA3 and alcohol consumption effect was stronger among patients with viral etiology of cirrhosis (HR, 3.42; 95% CI, 1.31-8.90). PNPLA3 improved 1-year risk prediction for HCC when added to a clinical risk model. CONCLUSIONS: The PNPLA3 variant may help refine risk stratification for HCC in patients with cirrhosis with heavy alcohol consumption or obesity who may need specific preventive measures.

Natural History of Indeterminate Liver Nodules in Patients With Advanced Liver Disease: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: Indeterminate liver nodules (ILNs) are frequently encountered on diagnostic imaging after positive hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance results, but their natural history remains unclear. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study among patients with ≥1 newly detected LI-RADS 3 (LR-3) lesion ≥1 cm or LI-RADS 4 (LR-4) lesion of any size (per LI-RADS v2018) between January 2018 and December 2019. Patients were followed with repeat imaging at each site per institutional standard of care. Multivariable Fine-Gray models were used to evaluate associations between potential risk factors and patient-level time-to-HCC diagnosis, with death and liver transplantation as competing risks. RESULTS: Of 307 patients with ILNs, 208 had LR-3 lesions, 83 had LR-4 lesions, and 16 had both LR-3 and LR-4 lesions. HCC incidence rates for patients with LR-3 and LR-4 lesions were 110 (95% CI 70-150) and 420 (95% CI 310-560) per 1,000 person-year, respectively. In multivariable analysis, incident HCC among patients with LR-3 lesions was associated with older age, thrombocytopenia (platelet count ≤150 ×10 9 /L), and elevated serum alpha-fetoprotein levels. Among those with LR-4 lesions, incident HCC was associated with a maximum lesion diameter >1 cm. Although most patients had follow-up computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, 13.7% had no follow-up imaging and another 14.3% had follow-up ultrasound only. DISCUSSION: ILNs have a high but variable risk of HCC, with 4-fold higher risk in patients with LR-4 lesions than those with LR-3 lesions, highlighting a need for accurate risk stratification tools and close follow-up in this population.

Telehealth interventions in patients with chronic liver diseases: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Telehealth interventions may improve access to care, disease-specific, and quality outcomes in chronic liver diseases (CLDs). We aimed to systematically evaluate outcomes of telehealth interventions in CLDs. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used key terms and searched PubMed/EMBASE from inception to January 10, 2022. Two authors independently screened abstracts. Disagreements were resolved by a third reviewer. We included any type of CLD, including posttransplant patients, and extracted outcomes as defined by authors for each etiology of CLD (sustained virological response in HCV or weight loss in NAFLD). Meta-analysis was not performed because of the heterogeneity of data. Quality assessment was performed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for observational studies and the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool for clinical trials. RESULTS: Of 4250 studies screened, 43 met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 28 reported HCV treatment outcomes. All studies showed no statistically significant differences between sustained virological response rates in TH groups compared with control groups or historic cohorts. Eight studies evaluating liver transplant-related processes and outcomes demonstrated improved rates of transplant evaluation and referrals and decreased short-term readmission rates. Three randomized controlled trials and 1 observational study on NAFLD showed improved weight loss outcomes. One retrospective study showed reduced mortality risk in CLD patients with at least 1 TH encounter. CONCLUSIONS: TH interventions in patients with CLDs consistently show equivalent or improved clinical outcomes compared with traditional encounters. TH in CLDs can bridge the gap in access while maintaining the quality of care for underserved populations.

Risk factors for HCC in contemporary cohorts of patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Etiological risk factors for cirrhosis have changed in the last decade. It remains unclear to what extent these trends in cirrhosis risk factors have changed HCC risk. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We used data from two contemporary, prospective multiethnic cohorts of patients with cirrhosis: the Texas Hepatocellular Carcinoma Consortium Cohort and the Houston Veterans Administration Cirrhosis Surveillance Cohort. Patients with cirrhosis were enrolled from seven US centers and followed until HCC diagnosis, transplant, death, or June 30, 2021. We calculated the annual incidence rates for HCC and examined the effects of etiology, demographic, clinical, and lifestyle factors on the risk of HCC. We included 2733 patients with cirrhosis (mean age 60.1 years, 31.3% women). At enrollment, 19.0% had active HCV, 23.3% had cured HCV, 16.1% had alcoholic liver disease, and 30.1% had NAFLD. During 7406 person-years of follow-up, 135 patients developed HCC at an annual incidence rate of 1.82% (95% CI, 1.51-2.13). The annual HCC incidence rate was 1.71% in patients with cured HCV, 1.32% in patients with alcoholic liver disease, and 1.24% in patients with NAFLD cirrhosis. Compared to patients with NAFLD, the risk of progression to HCC was 2-fold higher in patients with cured HCV (HR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.24-3.35). Current smoking (HR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.01-2.63) and overweight/obesity (HR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.08-2.95) were also associated with HCC risk. CONCLUSIONS: HCC incidence among patients with cirrhosis was lower than previously reported. HCC risk was variable across etiologies, with higher risk in patients with HCV cirrhosis and lower risk in those with NAFLD cirrhosis. Current smoking and overweight/obesity increased HCC risk across etiologies.

A multisociety Delphi consensus statement on new fatty liver disease nomenclature.

The principal limitations of the terms NAFLD and NASH are the reliance on exclusionary confounder terms and the use of potentially stigmatising language. This study set out to determine if content experts and patient advocates were in favor of a change in nomenclature and/or definition. A modified Delphi process was led by three large pan-national liver associations. The consensus was defined a priori as a supermajority (67%) vote. An independent committee of experts external to the nomenclature process made the final recommendation on the acronym and its diagnostic criteria. A total of 236 panelists from 56 countries participated in 4 online surveys and 2 hybrid meetings. Response rates across the 4 survey rounds were 87%, 83%, 83%, and 78%, respectively. Seventy-four percent of respondents felt that the current nomenclature was sufficiently flawed to consider a name change. The terms "nonalcoholic" and "fatty" were felt to be stigmatising by 61% and 66% of respondents, respectively. Steatotic liver disease was chosen as an overarching term to encompass the various aetiologies of steatosis. The term steatohepatitis was felt to be an important pathophysiological concept that should be retained. The name chosen to replace NAFLD was metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease. There was consensus to change the definition to include the presence of at least 1 of 5 cardiometabolic risk factors. Those with no metabolic parameters and no known cause were deemed to have cryptogenic steatotic liver disease. A new category, outside pure metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, termed metabolic and alcohol related/associated liver disease (MetALD), was selected to describe those with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, who consume greater amounts of alcohol per week (140-350 g/wk and 210-420 g/wk for females and males, respectively). The new nomenclature and diagnostic criteria are widely supported and nonstigmatising, and can improve awareness and patient identification.

Emergency Presentations Predict Worse Outcomes Among Patients with Pancreatic Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Emergency presentation (EP) of cancer, a new cancer diagnosis made following an emergency department (ED) visit, is associated with worse patient outcomes and greater organizational stress on healthcare systems. Pancreatic cancer has the highest rate of EPs among European studies but remains understudied in the U.S. AIMS: To evaluate the association between pancreatic cancer EPs and cancer stage, treatment, and survival. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma diagnosed from 2007 to 2019 at a tertiary-care Veterans Affairs medical center. Electronic health records were reviewed to identify EP cases, defined as a new pancreatic cancer diagnosis made within 30 days of an ED visit where cancer was suspected. We used multivariate logistic regression models and Cox proportional hazards models to examine the associations between EPs and cancer stage, treatment, and survival. RESULTS: Of 243 pancreatic cancer patients, 66.7% had EPs. There was no difference in stage by EP status. However, patients diagnosed through EPs were 72% less likely to receive cancer treatment compared to non-emergency presenters (adjusted OR 0.28; 95% CI 0.13-0.57). Patients with EPs also had a 73% higher mortality risk (adjusted HR 1.73; 95% CI 1.29-2.34). This difference in mortality remained statistically significant after adjusting for cancer stage and receipt of cancer treatment (adjusted HR 1.47; 95% CI 1.09-1.99). CONCLUSIONS: Pancreatic cancer EPs are common and independently associated with lower treatment rates and survival. Enhanced understanding of process breakdowns that lead to EPs can help identify care gaps and inform future quality improvement efforts.

An Electronic Health Record Model for Predicting Risk of Hepatic Fibrosis in Primary Care Patients.

BACKGROUND: One challenge for primary care providers caring for patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is to identify those at the highest risk for clinically significant liver disease. AIM: To derive a risk stratification tool using variables from structured electronic health record (EHR) data for use in populations which are disproportionately affected with obesity and diabetes. METHODS: We used data from 344 participants who underwent Fibroscan examination to measure liver fat and liver stiffness measurement [LSM]. Using two approaches, multivariable logistic regression and random forest classification, we assessed risk factors for any hepatic fibrosis (LSM > 7 kPa) and significant hepatic fibrosis (> 8 kPa). Possible predictors included data from the EHR for age, gender, diabetes, hypertension, FIB-4, body mass index (BMI), LDL, HDL, and triglycerides. RESULTS: Of 344 patients (56.4% women), 34 had any hepatic fibrosis, and 15 significant hepatic fibrosis. Three variables (BMI, FIB-4, diabetes) were identified from both approaches. When we used variable cut-offs defined by Youden's index, the final model predicting any hepatic fibrosis had an AUC of 0.75 (95% CI 0.67-0.84), NPV of 91.5% and PPV of 40.0%. The final model with variable categories based on standard clinical thresholds (i.e., BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2; FIB-4 ≥ 1.45) had lower discriminatory ability (AUC 0.65), but higher PPV (50.0%) and similar NPV (91.3%). We observed similar findings for predicting significant hepatic fibrosis. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate that standard thresholds for clinical risk factors/biomarkers may need to be modified for greater discriminatory ability among populations with high prevalence of obesity and diabetes.

A multisociety Delphi consensus statement on new fatty liver disease nomenclature.

The principal limitations of the terms NAFLD and NASH are the reliance on exclusionary confounder terms and the use of potentially stigmatising language. This study set out to determine if content experts and patient advocates were in favor of a change in nomenclature and/or definition. A modified Delphi process was led by three large pan-national liver associations. The consensus was defined a priori as a supermajority (67%) vote. An independent committee of experts external to the nomenclature process made the final recommendation on the acronym and its diagnostic criteria. A total of 236 panelists from 56 countries participated in 4 online surveys and 2 hybrid meetings. Response rates across the 4 survey rounds were 87%, 83%, 83%, and 78%, respectively. Seventy-four percent of respondents felt that the current nomenclature was sufficiently flawed to consider a name change. The terms "nonalcoholic" and "fatty" were felt to be stigmatising by 61% and 66% of respondents, respectively. Steatotic liver disease was chosen as an overarching term to encompass the various aetiologies of steatosis. The term steatohepatitis was felt to be an important pathophysiological concept that should be retained. The name chosen to replace NAFLD was metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease. There was consensus to change the definition to include the presence of at least 1 of 5 cardiometabolic risk factors. Those with no metabolic parameters and no known cause were deemed to have cryptogenic steatotic liver disease. A new category, outside pure metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, termed metabolic and alcohol related/associated liver disease (MetALD), was selected to describe those with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, who consume greater amounts of alcohol per week (140-350 g/wk and 210-420 g/wk for females and males, respectively). The new nomenclature and diagnostic criteria are widely supported and nonstigmatising, and can improve awareness and patient identification.

Improved Survival After Liver Transplantation for Patients With Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and HIV/Hepatitis C Virus Coinfection in the Integrase Strand Transfer Inhibitor and Direct-Acting Antiviral Eras.

BACKGROUND: People with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) with and without hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfection had poor outcomes after liver transplant (LT). Integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs) and direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) have changed the treatment landscape for HIV and HCV, respectively, but their impact on LT outcomes remains unclear. METHODS: This retrospective analysis of adults with HIV monoinfection (n = 246) and HIV/HCV coinfection (n = 286) who received LT compared mortality in patients with HIV who received LT before versus after approval of INSTIs and in patients with HIV/HCV coinfection who received LT before versus after approval of DAAs. In secondary analysis, we compared the outcomes in the different eras with those of propensity score-matched control cohorts of LT recipients without HIV or HCV infection. RESULTS: LT recipients with HIV monoinfection did not experience a significant improvement in survival between the pre-INSTI and INSTI recipients with HIV (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.70 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .36-1.34]). However, recipients with HIV/HCV coinfection in the DAA era had a 47% reduction (aHR, 0.53 [95% CI, .31-9.2] in 1-year mortality compared with coinfected recipients in the pre-DAA era. Compared to recipients without HIV or HCV, HIV-monoinfected recipients had higher mortality during the pre-INSTI era, but survival was comparable between groups during the INSTI era. HIV/HCV-coinfected recipients also experienced comparable survival during the DAA era compared to recipients without HCV or HIV. CONCLUSIONS: Post-LT survival for people with HIV monoinfection and HIV/HCV coinfection has improved with the introduction of INSTI and DAA therapy, suggesting that LT has become safer in these populations.

Transplanting hepatitis B surface antigen-positive livers in the United States: Outcomes and opportunities.

Livers from donors with positive hepatitis B surface antigens (HBsAg+) have been used to expand the donor pool; however, outcome data are limited. We aim to evaluate survival following liver transplant (LT) from HBsAg+ donors. Using the United Network for Organ Sharing registry, we identified HBsAg+ donors used for LT from 2009 to 2020. We used Kaplan-Meier survival and Cox proportional hazards regression to compare post-LT survival in hepatitis B virus-negative recipients who utilized HBsAg+ donors to propensity-matched cohorts who utilized other types of donors. From 2009-2020, 70 patients received HBsAg+ livers, and 58 of them did not carry a diagnosis of chronic hepatitis B virus. The 1- and 3-year post-LT survival for hepatitis B virus-negative patients who received livers from HBsAg+ donors were 96.6% and 91.4%, respectively, with no statistical differences compared with patients who received livers from hepatitis C virus viremic donors (96.5%/93.0%, P = .961/.427), donation after cardiac death donors (93.0%/86.0%, P = .651/.598), average-risk donors (89.5%/86.0%, P = 0.264/0.617), and a combination of extended-criteria donors, including donation after cardiac death, donor age over 70, and graft with greater than 30% steatosis (93.0%/91.2%, P = .621/.785). Recipients of HBsAg+ livers have similar post-LT survival compared with those receiving other types of grafts. Increasing the utilization of HBsAg+ livers could safely expand the donor pool.

Longitudinal changes in fibrosis markers are associated with risk of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Currently, there is no consistent information on the course of fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score changes in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) or their association with subsequent risk of cirrhosis and/or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Thus, we aimed to evaluate the association between longitudinal changes in FIB-4 and subsequent risk of HCC and a composite endpoint of cirrhosis and HCC in patients with NAFLD. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients with NAFLD seen in 130 Veterans Administration hospitals between 1/1/2004-12/31/2008, with follow-up through to 12/31/2018. We calculated FIB-4 longitudinally and categorized patients based on risk of advanced fibrosis (low-risk FIB-4 <1.45, indeterminate-risk FIB-4 1.45-2.67, and high-risk FIB-4 >2.67). We used landmark Fine-Gray competing risks models to determine the effects of change in FIB-4 between NAFLD diagnosis date and 3-year landmark time on the subsequent risk of HCC and a composite endpoint. RESULTS: Among the 202,319 patients with NAFLD in the 3-year landmark analysis, 473 progressed to HCC at an incidence rate of 0.28 per 1,000 person years (PY) (95% CI 0.26-0.30). The incidence rate of the composite endpoint was 1.31 per 1,000 PY (95% CI 1.25-1.37). At baseline, 74.7%, 21.4%, and 3.8% of patients had a low, indeterminate, and high FIB-4, respectively. Compared to patients who were at stable low FIB-4 at both time points, the risk of HCC and that of the composite endpoint was higher for all other subgroups with the highest risk in patients with persistently high FIB-4 (HCC adjusted sub-distribution hazard ratio 57.7, 95% CI 40.5-82.2 and composite endpoint hazard ratio 28.6, 95% CI 24.6-33.2). CONCLUSION: Longitudinal changes in FIB-4 were strongly associated with progression to cirrhosis and HCC. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Tools to stratify the risk of HCC development in patients with NAFLD are currently lacking. The fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score is a widely available non-invasive test for liver fibrosis, a primary determinant of the development of cirrhosis and HCC. In a large retrospective cohort of patients with NAFLD, we found that serial changes in FIB-4 over time were strongly associated with progression to cirrhosis and HCC. Integrating serial measurements of non-invasive tests for fibrosis into the care pathway for patients with NAFLD could help tailor HCC risk prevention.

The novel SALT-M score predicts 1-year post-transplant mortality in patients with severe acute-on-chronic liver failure.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Twenty-eight-day mortality ranges from 30-90% in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure grades 2/3 (severe ACLF). Though liver transplantation (LT) has demonstrated a survival benefit, the scarcity of donor organs and uncertainty regarding post-LT mortality among patients with severe ACLF may cause hesitancy. We developed and externally validated a model to predict 1-year post-LT mortality in severe ACLF, called the Sundaram ACLF-LT-Mortality (SALT-M) score, and estimated the median length of stay (LoS) after LT (ACLF-LT-LoS). METHODS: In 15 LT centers in the US, we retrospectively identified a cohort of patients with severe ACLF transplanted between 2014-2019, followed up to Jan'2022. Candidate predictors included demographics, clinical and laboratory values, and organ failures. We selected predictors in the final model using clinical criteria and externally validated them in two French cohorts. We provided measures of overall performance, discrimination, and calibration. We used multivariable median regression to estimate LoS after adjusting for clinically relevant factors. RESULTS: We included 735 patients, of whom 521 (70.8%) had severe ACLF (120 ACLF-3, external cohort). The median age was 55 years, and 104 with severe ACLF (19.9%) died within 1-year post-LT. Our final model included age >50 years, use of 1/≥2 inotropes, presence of respiratory failure, diabetes mellitus, and BMI (continuous). The c-statistic was 0.72 (derivation) and 0.80 (validation), indicating adequate discrimination and calibration based on the observed/expected probability plots. Age, respiratory failure, BMI, and presence of infection independently predicted median LoS. CONCLUSIONS: The SALT-M score predicts mortality within 1-year after LT in patients with ACLF. The ACLF-LT-LoS score predicted median post-LT stay. Future studies using these scores could assist in determining transplant benefits. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Liver transplantation (LT) may be the only life-saving procedure available to patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), but clinically instability can augment the perceived risk of post-transplant mortality at 1 year. We developed a parsimonious score with clinically and readily available parameters to objectively assess 1-year post-LT survival and predict median length of stay after LT. We developed and externally validated a clinical model called the Sundaram ACLF-LT-Mortality score in 521 US patients with ACLF with 2 or ≥3 organ failure(s) and 120 French patients with ACLF grade 3. The c-statistic was 0.72 in the development cohort and 0.80 in the validation cohort. We also provided an estimation of the median length of stay after LT in these patients. Our models can be used in discussions on the risks/benefits of LT in patients listed with severe ACLF. Nevertheless, the score is far from perfect and other factors, such as patient's preference and center-specific factors, need to be considered when using these tools.

A multisociety Delphi consensus statement on new fatty liver disease nomenclature.

The principal limitations of the terms NAFLD and NASH are the reliance on exclusionary confounder terms and the use of potentially stigmatising language. This study set out to determine if content experts and patient advocates were in favour of a change in nomenclature and/or definition. A modified Delphi process was led by three large pan-national liver associations. The consensus was defined a priori as a supermajority (67%) vote. An independent committee of experts external to the nomenclature process made the final recommendation on the acronym and its diagnostic criteria. A total of 236 panellists from 56 countries participated in 4 online surveys and 2 hybrid meetings. Response rates across the 4 survey rounds were 87%, 83%, 83%, and 78%, respectively. Seventy-four percent of respondents felt that the current nomenclature was sufficiently flawed to consider a name change. The terms "nonalcoholic" and "fatty" were felt to be stigmatising by 61% and 66% of respondents, respectively. Steatotic liver disease was chosen as an overarching term to encompass the various aetiologies of steatosis. The term steatohepatitis was felt to be an important pathophysiological concept that should be retained. The name chosen to replace NAFLD was metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). There was consensus to change the definition to include the presence of at least 1 of 5 cardiometabolic risk factors. Those with no metabolic parameters and no known cause were deemed to have cryptogenic steatotic liver disease. A new category, outside pure metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, termed metabolic and alcohol related/associated liver disease (MetALD), was selected to describe those with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, who consume greater amounts of alcohol per week (140-350 g/wk and 210-420 g/wk for females and males, respectively). The new nomenclature and diagnostic criteria are widely supported and non-stigmatising, and can improve awareness and patient identification.

The Performance of AFP, AFP-3, DCP as Biomarkers for Detection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC): A Phase 3 Biomarker Study in the United States.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: α-fetoprotein (AFP), AFP Lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive fraction of AFP (AFP-L3), and des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) in combination or in GALAD (Gender, Age, AFP-L3, AFP, and DCP) were tested for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance in retrospective cohort and case-control studies. However, there is a paucity of prospective data and no phase III biomarker studies from North American populations. METHODS: We conducted a prospective specimen collection, retrospective blinded evaluation (PRoBE) cohort study in patients with cirrhosis enrolled in a 6-monthly surveillance with liver imaging and AFP. Blood samples were prospectively collected every 6 months and analyzed in a retrospective blinded fashion. True positive rate (TPR) and false positive rate (FPR) for any or early HCC were calculated within 6, 12, and 24 months of HCC diagnosis based on published thresholds for biomarkers individually, in combination and in GALAD and Hepatocellular Carcinoma Early Detection Screening (HES) scores. We calculated the area under the receiver operating curve and estimated TPR based on an optimal threshold at a fixed FPR of 10%. RESULTS: The analysis was conducted in a cohort of 534 patients; 50 developed HCC (68% early) and 484 controls with negative imaging. GALAD had the highest TPR (63.6%, 73.8%, and 71.4% for all HCC, and 53.8%, 63.3%, and 61.8 % for early HCC within 6, 12, and 24 months, respectively) but an FPR of 21.5% to 22.9%. However, there were no differences in the area under the receiver operating curve among GALAD, HES, AFP-L3, or DCP. At a fixed 10% FPR, TPR for GALAD dropped (42.4%, 45.2%, and 46.9%) and was not different from HES (36.4%, 40.5%, and 40.8%) or AFP-L3 alone (39.4%, 45.2%, and 44.9%). CONCLUSIONS: In a prospective cohort phase III biomarker study, GALAD was associated with a considerable improvement in sensitivity for HCC detection but an increase in false-positive results. GALAD performance was modest and not different from AFP-L3 alone or HES.

Underestimation of Cirrhosis-Related Mortality in the Medicare Eligible Population, 1999-2018.

The burden of cirrhosis may be increasing, especially among the elderly. A recent updated definition of cirrhosis has a >90% positive predictive value for identifying cirrhosis and cirrhosis-related complications.1 We hypothesized that cirrhosis-related mortality is underestimated, and that the elderly are disproportionally impacted. In this study, we aimed to examine trends in liver-related mortality using this updated definition among the elderly and to identify changes by relevant subsets of gender, race, and rurality.